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Farm- and community-level factors underlying the profitability of fertiliser usage for Ethiopian smallholder farmers 农场和社区层面的因素决定了埃塞俄比亚小农使用化肥的盈利能力
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2021-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2021.1984958
B. Assefa, P. Reidsma, J. Chamberlin, M. V. van Ittersum
ABSTRACT While adoption rates for inorganic fertiliser are relatively high in Ethiopia, application rates are generally considered agronomically suboptimal. Using recent data on Ethiopian smallholder maize producers, we showed that maize response to nitrogen, and the profitability of fertiliser use depended on maize agronomy. The agronomic optimum ranged from 0 to 344 kg/ha with a mean value of 209 kg/ha. The actual nitrogen application rates were only about half the agronomic optimum, on average, and were less than the farm-specific economic optimum on 80% of maize fields. The average economic optimum level was 145 kg N/ha, but when we account for risk aversion, the resulting average optimum level is very close to the average observed usage level of 88 kg N/ha. Addressing risk aversion may help to induce greater levels of fertiliser investments at current prices and yield response rates. Our analysis also suggests that key pathways for increasing the economic returns to smallholder fertiliser investments include: complementing nitrogen inputs with phosphorus inputs and improved varieties, using lower levels of nitrogen under intercropping and manure inputs, enabling farmers to delay output sales beyond the immediate post-harvest period, and lowering the costs of accessing input and output markets.
摘要虽然埃塞俄比亚的无机肥料采用率相对较高,但施用率通常被认为是农业上的次优。利用埃塞俄比亚小农户玉米生产商的最新数据,我们表明玉米对氮的反应和化肥使用的盈利能力取决于玉米农艺。最佳农艺性状为0~344公斤/公顷,平均值为209公斤/公顷。在80%的玉米田上,实际施氮率平均仅为农艺最佳值的一半左右,低于农场特定经济最佳值。平均经济最优水平为145 kg N/ha,但当我们考虑到风险规避时,得出的平均最佳水平非常接近观察到的平均使用水平88 kg N/ha。解决风险规避可能有助于在当前价格和产量响应率下吸引更高水平的化肥投资。我们的分析还表明,提高小农户化肥投资经济回报的关键途径包括:用磷投入和改良品种补充氮投入,在间作和粪肥投入下使用较低水平的氮,使农民能够将产量销售推迟到收获后不久,以及降低进入投入和产出市场的成本。
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引用次数: 9
Analysis of the Kenyan economy: an input-output approach 肯尼亚经济分析:投入产出法
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2021-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2021.1984957
Sofía Jiménez, Alfredo J. Mainar‐Causapé, E. Ferrari
ABSTRACT Since the beginning of the 2008 economic crisis, economic growth and development have been in the forefront of economic research. In a global context, the highest levels of poverty as well as malnutrition problems are found in sub-Saharan African countries. Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) are useful tools to describe the economic situation of these countries, the interactions among economic agents and to support policymakers in implementing their policies. The paper shows the macro- and micro-economic indicators of Kenya, which can be directly extracted from the described SAM 2017 for Kenya The analysis of the SAM multipliers shows that agri-food multipliers are in general above the average reflecting the strength of backward and forward linkages of Kenya’s economy.
摘要自2008年经济危机爆发以来,经济增长与发展一直处于经济学研究的前沿。在全球范围内,撒哈拉以南非洲国家的贫困程度和营养不良问题最高。社会核算矩阵是描述这些国家经济状况、经济主体之间互动以及支持决策者实施政策的有用工具。本文显示了肯尼亚的宏观和微观经济指标,这些指标可以直接从描述的2017年肯尼亚SAM中提取。对SAM乘数的分析表明,农业食品乘数通常高于平均水平,反映了肯尼亚经济的后向和前向联系的强度。
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引用次数: 0
The financial burden of African Horse Sickness: a case of the European Union trade ban on South Africa’s horse industry 非洲马病的财政负担:以欧盟对南非马业的贸易禁令为例
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2021-09-29 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2021.1975549
Z. Mdlulwa, M. Masemola, B. Lubisi, P. Chaminuka
ABSTRACT Globalisation and the increased movement of goods such as live animals and animal products across national borders can exacerbate the introduction and spread of diseases. This risk can be mitigated through adherence to trade control measures such as the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS) of the World Trade Organization (WTO). However, compliance with SPS measures usually results in additional production and trade costs. This paper applied cost–benefit analysis, using stochastic scenario analysis, to estimate the financial burden of SPS measures on exporting horses from South Africa to the European Union (EU). These measures were instituted following a ban on the direct export of horses from South Africa to the EU, triggered by outbreaks of African Horse Sickness (AHS) in the AHS Controlled Area in the Western Cape Province. Analysis revealed that compliance to existing SPS measures by exporting a horse via a third country is 1.67 times more costly than exporting directly to the EU. A strengthened public-private sector partnership is recommended to jointly identify the most efficient and effective ways to develop capacity for collaborative judicious investment in order to build a resilient horse industry thereby enabling employment creation and economic growth.
摘要全球化和活体动物和动物产品等商品跨境流动的增加可能会加剧疾病的传入和传播。这种风险可以通过遵守世界贸易组织(WTO)的卫生和植物检疫措施等贸易控制措施来减轻。然而,遵守SPS措施通常会导致额外的生产和贸易成本。本文应用成本效益分析,使用随机情景分析,估计了SPS措施对南非向欧盟出口马匹的财政负担。这些措施是在西开普省非洲马病控制区爆发非洲马病后,南非禁止向欧盟直接出口马匹后制定的。分析显示,通过第三国出口马匹遵守现有SPS措施的成本是直接出口到欧盟的1.67倍。建议加强公私部门伙伴关系,共同确定最有效和最有效的方式来发展合作明智投资的能力,以建立一个有弹性的马业,从而创造就业机会和经济增长。
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引用次数: 0
Covid-19 and the South African wine industry Covid-19和南非葡萄酒行业
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2021-09-19 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2021.1975550
Tracy Davids, N. Vink, Kandas Cloete
ABSTRACT South Africa has faced multiple waves of COVID-19 infections since March 2020 with various levels of economic restrictions imposed to control the pandemic’s spread. Such actions included intermittent bans on alcoholic beverage sales, which have had a substantial impact on the wine sector. This purpose of this paper is to quantify this impact, using a partial equilibrium simulation model to separate the direct impact of sales restrictions from the indirect impact of collapsed GDP growth and consequently also consumer spending. In 2020 alone, it points to a reduction in domestic sales and in exports as a result of the pandemic and the efforts to control its spread. The subsequent stock build up induces a prolonged period of weaker prices, and combined with additional actions imposed up to the end of July 2021, cost actors in the industry R3.6 billion in primary gross production value from 2020 to 2027, even without accounting for further value addition between bulk sale and retail value.
自2020年3月以来,南非面临着多波COVID-19感染,并实施了不同程度的经济限制来控制大流行的传播。这些行动包括间歇性禁止酒精饮料销售,这对葡萄酒行业产生了重大影响。本文的目的是量化这种影响,使用部分均衡模拟模型将销售限制的直接影响与GDP增长崩溃的间接影响以及消费者支出的间接影响分开。报告指出,仅在2020年,由于疫情和控制其传播的努力,国内销售和出口就会减少。随后的库存增加导致了长时间的价格疲软,再加上截至2021年7月底实施的额外行动,从2020年到2027年,该行业的主要总产值损失了36亿兰特,这还不包括大宗销售和零售价值之间的进一步增值。
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引用次数: 6
The impact of Covid-19 on black farmers in South Africa Covid-19对南非黑人农民的影响
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2021-09-13 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2021.1971097
M. Wegerif
ABSTRACT Covid-19 is impacting on food systems and food security around the world, including in South Africa, revealed most starkly in rising food prices and increasing food insecurity. Debates on what kind of food system we need to respond to this crisis remain unresolved and lacking in a good understanding of the impacts of Covid-19 on farmers who are key actors in food systems. This article contributes to these debates by revealing the experiences of black fresh produce farmers in South Africa since Covid-19 arrived in the country and the government responded with a range of emergency regulations. This is based on in-depth research with 40 market-orientated black small- and medium-scale farmers. Giving particular attention to black farmers is essential in South Africa given the high levels of continued wealth and racial inequalities. The study has found that, despite overall growth in the agricultural sector, these farmers are facing many challenges and receive inadequate support. The outcomes of Covid-19 related impacts include reductions in production and incomes as well as job losses. If not addressed there could be long-term negative consequences that undermine the food system and reinforce existing inequalities. A holistic food system approach, better informed by an understanding of black farmers and the networks they are part of, will be valuable to finding solutions.
摘要新冠肺炎正在对包括南非在内的世界各地的粮食系统和粮食安全产生影响,最明显的表现是粮食价格上涨和粮食不安全加剧。关于我们需要什么样的粮食系统来应对这场危机的争论仍未解决,也缺乏对新冠肺炎对作为粮食系统关键行为者的农民的影响的充分理解。这篇文章揭示了自新冠肺炎传入南非以来,南非黑人新鲜农产品农民的经历,政府采取了一系列应急措施,为这些辩论做出了贡献。这是基于对40名以市场为导向的黑人中小型农民的深入研究。鉴于南非持续的高水平财富和种族不平等,特别关注黑人农民至关重要。研究发现,尽管农业部门总体增长,但这些农民面临着许多挑战,而且得到的支持不足。新冠肺炎相关影响的结果包括产量和收入的减少以及失业。如果不加以解决,可能会产生长期的负面后果,破坏粮食系统,加剧现有的不平等现象。一种全面的粮食系统方法,更好地了解黑人农民及其所属网络,将有助于找到解决方案。
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引用次数: 7
Factors influencing farmers’ dis-adoption and retention decisions for biofortified crops: the case of orange-fleshed sweetpotato in Mozambique 影响农民放弃和保留生物强化作物决定的因素:以莫桑比克橙肉红薯为例
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2021-08-02 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2021.1956555
W. Jogo, T. Bocher, F. Grant
ABSTRACT Despite their proven effectiveness in addressing micronutrient deficiencies, adoption of biofortified crops among smallholder farmers remains low. Using a cross-sectional survey dataset of 1538 households randomly selected from 15 districts in Nampula and Zambezia provinces of Mozambique, this study examined the factors influencing farmers' dis-adoption and retention decisions for biofortified OFSP varieties. Data on household socio-demographic characteristics; knowledge, attitudes, perceptions and practices on OFSP production and nutrition were fitted to a Heckman bivariate probit model with sample selection to empirically assess the determinants of sequential adoption and dis-adoption decisions. The results showed that adoption and dis-adoption of OFSP is significantly influenced by a combination of farmers' socio-economic characteristics (age, gender, nutrition knowledge, education, access to planting material), consumption (taste, dry matter content) and agronomic (yield, early maturity, drought tolerance) traits. However, the agronomic traits and access to planting material are particularly key for the retention of OFSP varieties. These results suggest the need for breeding efforts to improve the agronomic traits of biofortified OFSP to match or better local non-biofortified varieties and establish seed delivery systems for sustainable adoption of biofortified OFSP.
摘要尽管生物强化作物在解决微量营养素缺乏方面已被证明是有效的,但其在小农户中的采用率仍然很低。本研究使用横断面调查数据集,从莫桑比克楠普拉省和赞比西亚省的15个区随机选择1538户家庭,调查了影响农民对生物强化OFSP品种的不采用和保留决定的因素。关于家庭社会人口特征的数据;关于OFSP生产和营养的知识、态度、看法和实践被拟合到具有样本选择的Heckman双变量probit模型中,以实证评估顺序采用和不采用决策的决定因素。结果表明,OFSP的采用和不采用受农民的社会经济特征(年龄、性别、营养知识、教育程度、获得种植材料的机会)、消费(口味、干物质含量)和农艺(产量、早熟、耐旱)特征的综合影响。然而,农艺性状和获得种植材料对OFSP品种的保留尤其关键。这些结果表明,育种工作需要改进生物强化OFSP的农艺性状,以匹配或更好地匹配当地非生物强化品种,并建立可持续采用生物强化OFP的种子递送系统。
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引用次数: 5
Does commitment to cooperatives affect the economic benefits of smallholder farmers? Evidence from rice cooperatives in the Western province of Zambia 对合作社的承诺是否会影响小农户的经济利益?来自赞比亚西部省份稻米合作社的证据
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2021-07-29 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2021.1957692
Ebenezer Donkor, Jiri Hejkrlik
ABSTRACT Using local provincial authorities, the government of Zambia has demonstrated renewed interest in cooperatives as a means of reaching smallholder farmers in rural areas. There exists, however, the problem of high heterogeneity within cooperatives regarding members’ commitment, with many passive members holding only formal membership and having a minimal understanding of the cooperative's principles and benefits. The main objective of this study was to analyse how varying levels of members’ commitment determine their economic benefits. We selected a total of 215 rice farmers (72 active and 143 passive members) from two rice-dominant districts and used the propensity score matching technique and endogenous treatment regression model for the analysis. The study results show that educational level, distance to the cooperative, members’ perception about trust and acceptance, and value of the investment in the cooperative have a considerable influence on member commitment. The results further indicate that actively committed members of the cooperative achieve much more economic benefits than passive members.
摘要赞比亚政府利用地方省级当局,重新对合作社表现出了兴趣,将其作为接触农村地区小农户的一种手段。然而,合作社内部在成员承诺方面存在高度异质性的问题,许多被动成员只持有正式成员资格,对合作社的原则和利益了解甚少。这项研究的主要目的是分析不同程度的成员承诺如何决定其经济效益。我们从两个水稻优势区选择了215名稻农(72名主动和143名被动成员),并使用倾向得分匹配技术和内生处理回归模型进行分析。研究结果表明,受教育程度、与合作社的距离、成员对信任和接受的感知以及对合作社的投资价值对成员承诺有相当大的影响。研究结果进一步表明,积极参与的合作社成员比被动成员获得更多的经济利益。
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引用次数: 0
The COVID-19 effects on agricultural commodity markets 2019冠状病毒病对农产品市场的影响
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2021-07-08 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2022.2078381
M. Balcılar, Kamil Sertoglu, Büşra Ağan
ABSTRACT This study examines the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on major agricultural commodity prices (cattle, cocoa, coffee, corn, cotton, hog, rice, soya oil, soybeans, soybean meal, sugar and wheat) using daily data from 1 January 2016 to 25 February 2022. We measured COVID-19 effect using a news-based sentiment index. A robust nonparametric Granger causality-in-quantiles test is used to test the effect of the COVID-19 sentiment on agricultural commodity prices and price volatility. We find significant Granger causality from the news-based COVID-19 sentiment to mean of the agricultural commodity prices in the lower and upper ranges of the quantiles. Moreover, findings show that the COVID-19 sentiment is also causal for variance of agricultural commodity prices, but only above the quantile ranges above the first quarter. Thus, COVID-19 is causal for large volatility changes in agricultural commodity prices. Accordingly, the extremely negative sentiment associated with COVID-19 has not only caused a price crash in agricultural markets, but also significantly increased market risk. Policymakers should be wary of the risks and vulnerabilities of agricultural commodities to extreme events, as well as the ramifications for producers and consumers throughout the economy.
本研究利用2016年1月1日至2022年2月25日的每日数据,考察了COVID-19大流行对主要农产品价格(牛、可可、咖啡、玉米、棉花、生猪、大米、大豆油、大豆、豆粕、糖和小麦)的影响。我们使用基于新闻的情绪指数来衡量COVID-19效应。采用稳健的非参数格兰杰分位数因果检验来检验COVID-19情绪对农产品价格和价格波动的影响。我们发现基于新闻的COVID-19情绪与农产品价格在分位数上下区间的平均值之间存在显著的格兰杰因果关系。此外,研究结果显示,疫情情绪也是农产品价格波动的原因,但仅高于第一季度的分位数范围。因此,2019冠状病毒病是农产品价格大幅波动的原因。因此,新冠肺炎相关的极端负面情绪不仅导致农产品市场价格暴跌,还大幅增加了市场风险。政策制定者应该警惕农产品在极端事件面前的风险和脆弱性,以及对整个经济中生产者和消费者的影响。
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引用次数: 3
The poverty impacts of improved soybean technologies in Malawi 马拉维改良大豆技术对贫困的影响
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2021-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2021.1939075
A. Tufa, A. Alene, Julius Manda, S. Feleke, Tesfamichael Wossen, M. Akinwale, D. Chikoye, V. Manyong
ABSTRACT Improved soybean varieties and agronomic practices have been widely disseminated to smallholder farmers in Malawi over the last 15 years. However, there is no empirical evidence on the welfare impacts of adopting improved soybean technologies. This paper estimated the poverty impacts of adopting improved soybean technologies using data from 1,234 households in six soybean growing districts accounting for over 80% of the total soybean production in the country. The results from an endogenous switching regression model showed that 32% of the sample households adopted improved soybean varieties and agronomic practices. The adoption benefits were higher for female-headed households and increased with the household head’s education and cultivated land areas. A comparison of the observed and counterfactual incomes for adopters based on the international poverty line of US$1.90 per capita per day showed a 4.16 percentage-point reduction in poverty among the sample households, translating to over 150,000 people lifted out of poverty. The household head’s education level, household size, cultivated land area, livestock size, and asset ownership are associated with the daily per capita income. The results point to the need for scaling up of improved soybean varieties and agronomic practices for greater impacts on poverty reduction among smallholders in Malawi.
摘要在过去的15年里,改良的大豆品种和农艺措施已广泛传播给马拉维的小农户。然而,没有经验证据表明采用改良大豆技术会对福利产生影响。本文利用六个大豆种植区1234户家庭的数据估计了采用改良大豆技术对贫困的影响,这些家庭占全国大豆总产量的80%以上。内生转换回归模型的结果显示,32%的样本家庭采用改良大豆品种和农艺措施。女性户主家庭的收养福利更高,而且随着户主的教育程度和耕地面积的增加而增加。根据人均每天1.90美元的国际贫困线,对收养者的观察收入和反事实收入进行比较,结果显示,样本家庭的贫困减少了4.16个百分点,超过150000人脱贫。户主的教育水平、家庭规模、耕地面积、牲畜规模和资产所有权与人均日收入有关。研究结果表明,有必要扩大改良大豆品种和农艺措施的规模,以便对马拉维小农户的减贫产生更大影响。
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引用次数: 3
What factors influence smallholder farmers’ decision to select a milk marketing channel in Zambia? 什么因素影响了赞比亚小农选择牛奶销售渠道的决定?
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2021-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2021.1950017
Tulumbe Cheelo, M. van der Merwe
ABSTRACT Farmers are faced with computational and informational limitations when making marketing decisions. This holds true for Zambian dairy farmers. This study examined the factors that influence the choice of milk marketing channels among 251 smallholder farmers in Zambia participating in milk production and marketing using a multinomial logit model approach. Three milk marketing channels were identified: direct, traditional, and modern. Relative to the base category (direct), the results indicate that gender and volume of milk produced positively influenced participation in the traditional marketing channel. However, off-farm income had a negative influence on the selection of the traditional marketing channel. Gender, education, distance to major markets, and volumes of milk produced influenced the decision to participate in the modern marketing channel. There seems to be an underutilisation of the modern marketing channel. The study identified the following factors to stimulate participation in the modern marketing channel: (i) concerted value chain investments, (ii) government intervention in the form of policy changes, (iii) increased access to market information, (iv) support services, and (v) transparency in the milk value-chain. Understanding the factors that influence farmers' participation in the informal channels enables tailored policies to support the formalisation of existing structures in the informal sector.
农民在做出营销决策时面临着计算和信息的限制。赞比亚奶农的情况也是如此。本研究采用多项logit模型方法,对251名参与牛奶生产和销售的赞比亚小农的牛奶销售渠道选择的影响因素进行了研究。确定了三种牛奶营销渠道:直接、传统和现代。相对于基本类别(直接),结果表明,性别和牛奶产量对传统营销渠道的参与有积极影响。然而,非农收入对传统营销渠道的选择产生了负面影响。性别、教育程度、与主要市场的距离以及牛奶产量影响了参与现代营销渠道的决定。现代营销渠道似乎没有得到充分利用。该研究确定了以下因素来刺激现代营销渠道的参与:(i)协调一致的价值链投资,(ii)政府以政策变化的形式进行干预,(iii)增加获得市场信息的机会,(iv)支持服务,以及(v)牛奶价值链的透明度。了解影响农民参与非正规渠道的因素,有助于制定有针对性的政策,支持非正规部门现有结构的正规化。
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引用次数: 2
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Agrekon
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