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Introduction to volume 60 of Agrekon 介绍第60卷的Agrekon
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2021.1886493
J. Kirsten
This year marks the 60th anniversary of the existence of the Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA). This is young by most standards, but the milestone still makes us the 12th oldest surviving Agricultural Economics Association in the world. We are, however, in this celebratory year mourning the untimely passing of our Past-President and leader in the agricultural economics profession in South Africa, Prof. Mohammad Karaan. We will miss him dearly, and so to honour his role and contribution to our association, we pay tribute to him in this issue of Agrekon (page 88). The COVID-19 pandemic has also resulted in the deaths of a number of our other agricultural economics colleagues early in 2021. They include Prof. Micah Masuku, Dean of the Faculty of Agriculture and Professor in Agricultural Economics at the University of Eswatini, and Bokkie Strauss, former Agricultural Attaché in Washington and Brussels and later a senior Executive and Director of Capespan. May their souls rest in peace. The March 2021 issue of Agrekon introduces its 60th volume, which presents an ideal opportunity to reflect on the history and evolution of the journal. This editorial, as well as the contribution by Prof. Nick Vink (pages 7–10) on his experience as editor of Agrekon, provide an introduction to this very important milestone. The inaugural issue of Agrekon was published in the first quarter of 1962, following its establishment by the South African Department of Agriculture. Its aim was to “communicate important events in the field of agricultural economics and to serve as forum for the exchange of topical views”. Agrekon was the personal brainchild of Mr SJJ de Swardt, Head of the Division of Economics and Markets in the Department of Agriculture for many years. He was a pioneer in agricultural economics research and education, and it was under his guidance that many a young graduate was sent overseas for post-graduate study, training and research. In the first issue of Agrekon in January 1962, De Swardt described its aim as being to spread information about the policy and actions of the Department, Control Boards and other organisations, as well as to act as an organ for publishing research results to stimulate scientific debate. This was clearly evident from the contents of the first few decades of Agrekon. The journal largely contained opinion pieces and overviews of economic trends, as well as descriptive pieces on the controlled agricultural marketing system. Between 1962 and 1989 (volumes 1–28), 40% of authors were affiliated with government departments, control boards and other parastatals, while 56% were affiliated with South African universities and 4% with universities abroad (mainly the guest speakers at the AEASA annual conference). In the next three decades, 64% of authors were affiliated with South African universities, 9% with parastatals (such as Agricultural Research Council, Human Sciences Research Council and Water Research Com
今年是南非农业经济协会(AEASA)成立60周年。以大多数标准来看,这个协会还很年轻,但这一里程碑仍然使我们成为世界上存活时间第12长的农业经济协会。然而,在这值得庆祝的一年里,我们哀悼我们的前任主席和南非农业经济学界的领袖穆罕默德·卡拉安教授不幸逝世。我们将深深地怀念他,因此,为了纪念他的作用和对我们协会的贡献,我们在本期《Agrekon》(第88页)上向他致敬。2019冠状病毒病大流行还导致我们的一些农业经济学同事在2021年初死亡。他们包括埃斯瓦蒂尼大学农业学院院长、农业经济学教授Micah Masuku教授,以及前驻华盛顿和布鲁塞尔农业专员、后来担任Capespan高级执行和董事的Bokkie Strauss。愿他们的灵魂安息。2021年3月发行的《Agrekon》将迎来第60卷,这是一个反思该杂志历史和演变的理想机会。这篇社论,以及Nick Vink教授关于他作为Agrekon编辑的经历的贡献(第7-10页),为这一非常重要的里程碑提供了介绍。《Agrekon》创刊号于1962年第一季度出版,随后由南非农业部成立。其目的是“传播农业经济领域的重要事件,并作为交流专题观点的论坛”。Agrekon是SJJ de Swardt先生的个人构想,他曾担任农业部经济与市场司司长多年。他是农业经济学研究和教育的先驱,在他的指导下,许多年轻的毕业生被派往国外进行研究生学习、培训和研究。在1962年1月的第一期《Agrekon》中,De Swardt将其目标描述为传播有关该部门、控制委员会和其他组织的政策和行动的信息,以及作为发表研究结果以激发科学辩论的机构。从希腊最初几十年的内容中可以清楚地看出这一点。该杂志主要包含对经济趋势的观点和概述,以及对受控制的农业营销系统的描述性文章。1962年至1989年间(第1-28卷),40%的作者隶属于政府部门、控制委员会和其他半国有机构,56%隶属于南非的大学,4%隶属于国外的大学(主要是AEASA年会上的客座演讲者)。在接下来的30年里,64%的作者隶属于南非的大学,9%隶属于半国有机构(如农业研究理事会、人文科学研究理事会和水研究委员会)和政府部门,27%隶属于国际机构和大学。在第一篇社论中,提到了1961年AEASA的成立。随着时间的推移,协会与Agrekon之间的联系变得更加紧密。在AEASA会议上发表的论文从1969年到2002年在希腊发表。此外,由于AEASA没有官方出版物,因此Agrekon发展成为南非农业经济学家最重要的出版场所之一。特别是自20世纪70年代末以来,学术文章开始占据了Agrekon的大部分页面。正是因为这个原因,Wissing and Groenewald(1987)才得出结论,25年后的今天,《Agrekon》已经达到了科学出版物的地位。一个促成因素
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引用次数: 1
Speed of adoption of intensive agricultural practices in Rwanda: A duration analysis 卢旺达采用集约化农业做法的速度:持续时间分析
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2021.1883448
J. Ngango, Seungjee Hong
ABSTRACT Maize is one of the main staple food crops grown in Rwanda that forms a significant part of household consumption. However, maize yields in Rwanda have remained low due to the limited adoption of fertilisers and improved seed varieties. This study aims to analyse factors that influence the timing of adoption of fertilisers and improved seed varieties (i.e., intensive agricultural practices) in Rwanda. The duration analysis approach is applied, providing a statistical method that permits the timing of the adoption event to be explicitly modelled in a dynamic framework. The results highlight the importance of social learning and information acquisition through extension services, media, and a network of fellow farmers in increasing adoption rates for fertilisers and improved maize varieties. Similarly, membership in farmers' associations, access to credit, and risk-loving behaviour positively affect the speed of adoption. Policy insights from the study suggest that strategies for promoting faster adoption should focus on providing information through agricultural extension services, media, and a network of fellow farmers. Additionally, farmers' cooperatives should be given priority as a dissemination pathway that can increase adoption speed for fertilisers and improved maize varieties.
摘要玉米是卢旺达种植的主要粮食作物之一,在家庭消费中占有重要地位。然而,由于化肥和改良种子品种的采用有限,卢旺达的玉米产量仍然很低。本研究旨在分析影响卢旺达采用化肥和改良种子品种(即集约农业实践)时机的因素。采用持续时间分析方法,提供了一种统计方法,允许在动态框架中明确建模采用事件的时间。研究结果强调了通过推广服务、媒体和农民同伴网络进行社会学习和信息获取在提高化肥和改良玉米品种采用率方面的重要性。同样,农民协会的成员资格、获得信贷的机会和喜欢冒险的行为也会对收养的速度产生积极影响。该研究的政策见解表明,促进更快采用的战略应侧重于通过农业推广服务、媒体和农民伙伴网络提供信息。此外,应优先考虑农民合作社作为一种传播途径,以提高化肥和改良玉米品种的采用速度。
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引用次数: 7
In memoriam: Abdul Salam Mohammad Karaan (1968–2021) 纪念:阿卜杜勒·萨拉姆·穆罕默德·卡兰(1968–2021)
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2021.1886495
N. Vink, W. Sihlobo, J. Kirsten
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引用次数: 0
Impacts of interlocked contractual arrangements on dairy farmers’ welfare in Zambia: a robust Bayesian instrumental variable analysis 连锁合同安排对赞比亚奶农福利的影响:一个稳健的贝叶斯工具变量分析
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2021.1875854
Rebecca N. Kiwanuka-Lubinda, John N. Ng’ombe, C. Machethe
ABSTRACT While contract farming and interlocked contractual arrangements (ICAs) are generally perceived to resolve persistent market failures and improve smallholder farmers' welfare in developing countries, uncertainties remain as to whether these arrangements enhance welfare because of farmers' low marketed volumes and margins. To account for potential selection bias, non-Gaussian and missing data problems, a robust two-stage Bayesian instrumental variable approach is used to determine the impact of dairy farmers' participation in ICAs on household income and milk revenue. Data are from smallholder dairy farmers in Zambia. We find that male household heads, wealth, experience selling to milk collection centres (MCCs), livestock holding, milking parlour ownership, landholding, and access to marketing information positively affect farmers' probability to participate in ICAs. However, increased off-farm income and distance to MCCs limit their participation. While some socioeconomic variables have significant positive effects of affecting ICA participation on household welfare, we find no sufficient evidence of causal effects of ICAs on household incomes and milk revenue among dairy farmers. Thus, while ICAs enhance smallholder farmers' access to markets, they may not address high rural poverty rates in developing countries. We provide some insights by which performance of ICAs in the dairy sector may be improved.
虽然在发展中国家,合同农业和联锁合同安排(ICAs)通常被认为可以解决持续的市场失灵并改善小农的福利,但由于小农的销量和利润率较低,这些安排是否能提高福利仍然存在不确定性。为了考虑潜在的选择偏差、非高斯和缺失数据问题,本文采用稳健的两阶段贝叶斯工具变量方法来确定奶农参与ICAs对家庭收入和牛奶收入的影响。数据来自赞比亚的小奶农。我们发现,男性户主、财富、向牛奶收集中心(MCCs)销售的经验、牲畜持有量、挤奶室所有权、土地持有以及获得营销信息的途径对农民参与ICAs的概率有积极影响。然而,非农收入的增加和与mcc的距离限制了她们的参与。虽然一些社会经济变量对家庭福利有显著的正向影响,但我们没有发现足够的证据表明家庭收入和奶农奶收入之间存在因果关系。因此,虽然ICAs增加了小农进入市场的机会,但它们可能无法解决发展中国家农村高贫困率的问题。我们提供了一些见解,通过这些见解,乳品行业的ICAs绩效可能会得到改善。
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引用次数: 10
Efficiency of a mixed farming system in a marginal winter rainfall area of the Overberg, South Africa, with implications for thinking about sustainability 南非奥弗伯格冬季降雨边缘地区混合农业系统的效率,对可持续性的思考
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2020.1828116
B. Conradie, A. Genis
ABSTRACT This study presents a preliminary analysis of the productivity performance of a small group of mixed winter rainfall farms over the past decade. Results indicate that there has been no technical progress in the sector over the past decade and group members are falling further behind their own benchmark as time passes. Relative rankings have remained stable, with most of the group riding the peaks and troughs of good and bad years without breaking rank. There is clearly room for fresh thinking. Drought does not offer a simple explanation for the observed trends. This group’s total factor productivity is inversely correlated with farm size despite evidence that their technology is increasing returns-to-scale. This is difficult to explain. Woolled sheep seems to be the solution to drought, but too much land under planted pastures lowers overall efficiency. There is much more investigation to do, including to cast the net wider so that a more sophisticated efficiency model can be fitted. There was no information on heat stress or rainfall variability, or the date of adoption of conservation agriculture, which is known to be a good strategy against unreliable rainfall. We also could not model the effect of farmers’ skills and ambitions on their performance. The study’s main contribution is to debunk the myths that rainfall places an absolute limit on performance and that a larger scale of operation is always beneficial.
摘要:本研究对过去十年来一组混合冬季降雨农场的生产力表现进行了初步分析。结果表明,在过去十年中,该行业没有任何技术进步,随着时间的推移,集团成员越来越落后于自己的基准。相对排名保持稳定,大多数上榜国家经历了好年份和坏年份的高峰和低谷,没有打破排名。显然,新思维还有空间。干旱并不能为观测到的趋势提供简单的解释。这一群体的全要素生产率与农场规模呈负相关,尽管有证据表明,他们的技术正在提高规模回报。这很难解释。羊毛羊似乎是解决干旱的办法,但种植牧场的土地太多,降低了整体效率。还有更多的调查工作要做,包括把网撒得更广,以便适用更复杂的效率模型。没有关于热应激或降雨变化的信息,也没有关于采用保护性农业的日期的信息,这是一种对抗不可靠降雨的好策略。我们也无法模拟农民的技能和抱负对他们表现的影响。这项研究的主要贡献是揭穿了“降雨对性能有绝对限制”以及“更大规模的操作总是有益的”这样的神话。
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引用次数: 2
Price transmission in (de)regulated agricultural markets (去)管制农业市场中的价格传导
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2020.1831936
Jakub Olipra
ABSTRACT This paper emphasises the impact of the ongoing liberalisation of agricultural policies and trade in agricultural commodities on spatial price transmission in agricultural markets. Based on a literature review covering a broad range of topics, the article derives four main conclusions. First, more market-oriented agricultural policies and trade liberalization improve horizontal price transmission in global agricultural markets. Second, in the integrated agricultural markets, some regions tend to lead the price discovery process, which is determined mainly by their role in international trade. Third, with the growing integration of agricultural markets, the significance of local factors such as seasonality is diminishing. Fourth, as markets become more integrated, spontaneous public interventions aimed at the stabilisation of domestic prices are less effective. These findings may help market participants at all stages of the food supply chain to better understand how policy deregulation and trade liberalisation affect price setting in agricultural markets and, consequently, enable them to adjust to these changes more effectively. Furthermore, the paper provides policy implications, as it distinguishes the institutional factors determining the degree of price transmission in agricultural markets and emphasises the decreasing effectiveness of domestic agricultural and trade policies as globalisation in agricultural markets continues.
摘要本文强调了当前农业政策和农产品贸易自由化对农业市场价格空间传导的影响。在对涉及广泛主题的文献综述的基础上,本文得出了四个主要结论。首先,更加面向市场的农业政策和贸易自由化改善了全球农业市场的横向价格传导。其次,在综合农业市场中,一些地区往往主导价格发现过程,这主要取决于它们在国际贸易中的作用。第三,随着农业市场的日益一体化,季节性等地方因素的重要性正在减弱。第四,随着市场变得更加一体化,旨在稳定国内价格的自发公共干预效果较差。这些发现可能有助于食品供应链各个阶段的市场参与者更好地了解政策放松和贸易自由化如何影响农业市场的价格制定,从而使他们能够更有效地适应这些变化。此外,本文还提供了政策含义,因为它区分了决定农业市场价格传导程度的制度因素,并强调随着农业市场全球化的继续,国内农业和贸易政策的有效性正在下降。
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引用次数: 5
An econometric estimation of gross margin volatility: a case of ox production in Namibia 毛利率波动的计量经济学估计:以纳米比亚的牛生产为例
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2020.1822893
H. J. Sartorius von Bach, K. M. Kalundu
ABSTRACT Cattle production in Namibia has been widely analysed. However, farm business performance is still partially understood. This paper provides a scenario of volatility in gross margin in the cattle farming enterprise, as a result of weather cycles. The impact of drought on biomass cattle production augmented by other factors are compound to the hypothesis for profit maximisation. The paper follows a stepwise approach to test the causality of variables affecting production decision-making during periods of volatility, such as drought or floods Testing the OLS results for robustness, if was found that the inclusion of dynamic estimations such as ARDL and ARCH/GARCH approaches were required. Findings show that effective rainfall is the main determinant for livestock farming in the Namibian arid areas, much more than stocking rates or other variables suggested in earlier literature. Advanced analysis shows that the inclusion of known rainfall cycles in production decision making can improve the farm gross margin by 15.9%, which reduces volatility. The findings call for extension services to avail early warning systems that will enable livestock farmers to cushion the impact of gross margin volatility. Cushioning the cattle industry against gross margin volatility will provide positive impact on the national economy.
摘要对纳米比亚的牛生产进行了广泛的分析。然而,农业企业的表现仍有部分了解。本文提供了一个畜牧企业毛利率波动的情景,这是天气周期的结果。干旱对生物量牛生产的影响加上其他因素,与利润最大化的假设是复合的。本文采用逐步方法来测试在波动期(如干旱或洪水)影响生产决策的变量的因果关系。如果发现需要包括ARDL和ARCH/GARCH方法等动态估计,则测试OLS结果的稳健性。研究结果表明,有效降雨量是纳米比亚干旱地区畜牧业的主要决定因素,远远超过早期文献中提出的放养率或其他变量。高级分析表明,在生产决策中纳入已知的降雨周期可以将农场毛利率提高15.9%,从而降低波动性。调查结果呼吁提供推广服务,以利用预警系统,使畜牧养殖户能够缓冲毛利率波动的影响。缓冲畜牧业对毛利率波动的影响将对国民经济产生积极影响。
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引用次数: 3
Production and hidden hunger impacts of sustainable agricultural practices: evidence from rural households in Africa 可持续农业做法对生产和隐性饥饿的影响:来自非洲农村家庭的证据
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2020.1855219
Abdul-Hanan Abdallah, A. Abdul‐Rahaman, Gazali Issahaku
ABSTRACT This study employs panel data from the sub-Saharan Africa’s Intensification (Afrint) project to examine the impacts of sustainable agricultural practices (SAPs) on crop production and hidden hunger. The dataset consists of 2368 households (4736 plots) across eight countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The study utilizes a multinomial endogenous switching regression model in the empirical estimations to account for sample selection bias caused by observed and unobserved farmer attributes. In addition, the study employed Mundlak fixed effects criteria to address plot level heterogeneity. The results show that joint adoption of SAPs improves total value of output and reduces hidden hunger, relative to adoption of SAPs in isolation. Specifically, an increase in total value of output is at most USD8,288.66/ha whiles decrease in cereal self-provisioning capacity is at most 647.69 kg per adult equivalent. The results therefore suggest that joint adoption of the SAPs should be promoted over adoption in isolation. The results also indicate that the benefits associated with adoption of SAPs, either in isolation or jointly, vary across Africa. This therefore implies that compatibility and potentials of the SAPs in various locations of Africa should be considered when promoting uptake of SAPs.
本研究采用撒哈拉以南非洲集约化(Afrint)项目的面板数据,考察可持续农业实践(SAPs)对作物生产和隐性饥饿的影响。该数据集包括撒哈拉以南非洲8个国家的2368个家庭(4736个地块)。本研究在经验估计中使用多项内生转换回归模型来解释由观察到的和未观察到的农民属性引起的样本选择偏差。此外,本研究采用了Mundlak固定效应标准来处理地块水平的异质性。结果表明,与单独采用sap相比,联合采用sap提高了总产值,减少了隐性饥饿。具体而言,总产值最多增加8,288.66美元/公顷,而谷物自我供应能力最多减少647.69公斤/成人当量。因此,研究结果表明,应促进共同采用标准程序,而不是单独采用标准程序。研究结果还表明,在非洲各地,单独或联合采用sap所带来的效益各不相同。因此,这意味着在促进采用标准方案时,应考虑到标准方案在非洲不同地点的兼容性和潜力。
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引用次数: 2
Adoption and ex-post impact of alternative teff production technologies: micro-level evidence from Ethiopia 替代聚四氟乙烯生产技术的采用和事后影响:来自埃塞俄比亚的微观证据
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2020-07-02 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2020.1782761
Etsehiwot Semreab Tiruneh, S. B. Wassie
ABSTRACT Using plot-level data from Ethiopia, this study aims to examine the determinants and impact of alternative teff production technologies on the productivity and profitability of smallholder teff producers. The study employed a multinomial endogenous switching regression (MESR) model that accounts for selection bias due to observable and unobservable factors. The authors’ results show that technology adoption has a positive association with education, farm size, extension visits, community meetings and asset ownership. On the contrary, distance to input and output markets have a negative and significant effect on the adoption of alternative teff production technologies. The MESR model results reveal that, while full technology adoption is the most productive and profitable option, adopting any of the alternative technologies also substantially improves the productivity and profitability of smallholder teff producers. The results also suggest that row-planting technology has a positive impact on the productivity and profitability of smallholder teff producers only when it is adopted with improved seed technology.
摘要本研究利用埃塞俄比亚的地块级数据,旨在检验替代聚四氟乙烯生产技术对小农户聚四氟乙烯生产商生产力和盈利能力的决定因素和影响。该研究采用了多项内生切换回归(MESR)模型,该模型解释了可观察和不可观察因素造成的选择偏差。作者的研究结果表明,技术采用与教育、农场规模、扩展访问、社区会议和资产所有权呈正相关。相反,与投入和产出市场的距离对采用替代聚四氟乙烯生产技术产生了负面和显著的影响。MESR模型的结果表明,虽然全面采用技术是最具生产力和利润的选择,但采用任何替代技术也大大提高了小农户聚四氟乙烯生产商的生产力和利润。研究结果还表明,只有在采用改良种子技术的情况下,行种植技术才能对小农户聚四氟乙烯生产商的生产力和盈利能力产生积极影响。
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引用次数: 5
Measuring the financial efficiency of agricultural cooperatives in South Africa: an application of the Simar–Wilson methodology 衡量南非农业合作社的财务效率:Simar-Wilson方法的应用
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2020-05-29 DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2020.1761845
C. Yobe, S. Ferrer, M. Mudhara
ABSTRACT Post-1994, the South African government has favoured cooperatives over other types of corporate entities in its rural development programmes. An improved understanding of the key drivers underpinning the performance of cooperatives is important for informing government programmes and policies that target cooperatives. This study examined the financial efficiency, and its determinants, of 387 agricultural cooperatives in South Africa, using the Simar–Wilson methodology. Bias-corrected Data Envelopment Analysis estimates for financial efficiency were obtained in the first stage. The results indicated that many agricultural cooperatives are relatively inefficient, compared to the three best-performing cooperatives on the efficient boundary. In the second stage, a double bootstrap truncated regression model was used to obtain bias-corrected scores that excluded the best-performing cooperatives. The statistically significant efficiency determinants identified from the analysis were the age and size of the cooperative, the gender of the principal manager of the cooperative, its governance and the training indicators. The observed relationship between governance and efficiency may be attributed to institutions that prioritise non-financial goals by being relatively more willing to compromise on governance quality. Furthermore, deviations from sound institutional control mechanisms are more likely to emerge in cooperatives that have weak institutional and organisational arrangements.
摘要:1994年后,南非政府在其农村发展方案中倾向于合作社而非其他类型的公司实体。更好地了解支撑合作社业绩的关键驱动因素,对于为政府针对合作社的方案和政策提供信息至关重要。本研究采用Simar–Wilson方法研究了南非387个农业合作社的财务效率及其决定因素。在第一阶段获得了经偏差校正的数据包络分析对财务效率的估计。结果表明,与效率边界上表现最好的三个合作社相比,许多农业合作社的效率相对较低。在第二阶段,使用双自举截断回归模型来获得偏差校正分数,该分数排除了表现最好的合作社。从分析中确定的具有统计学意义的效率决定因素是合作社的年龄和规模、合作社主要管理者的性别、合作社的治理和培训指标。观察到的治理和效率之间的关系可能归因于机构通过相对更愿意在治理质量上妥协来优先考虑非财务目标。此外,制度和组织安排薄弱的合作社更有可能出现偏离健全的制度控制机制的情况。
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引用次数: 5
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Agrekon
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