Pub Date : 2023-01-02DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2023.2185666
A. Karnik, Mala Lalvani, Manali Phatak
Abstract The significance of a study of political incumbency and the factors influencing it stems from the fact that it directly affects the behaviour of the incumbent political party and its accountability to the electorate. We use data on Parliamentary Elections in India from 1980 to 2014 to tease out evidence of incumbency advantage. We employ Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) to estimate the incumbency effect. Our results indicate the absence of any incumbency effect when considering all elections in India together. This finding is at odds with the research reported so far. To explain our contrary result, we drilled down deeper to obtain a more granular view of the incumbency effect in India. We do this across various regions of India. The results show that north Indian states generally show strong evidence of incumbency disadvantage while south Indian states show strong evidence of incumbency advantage. We also show that incumbency advantage has increased over time
{"title":"Political incumbency effects in India: a regional analysis","authors":"A. Karnik, Mala Lalvani, Manali Phatak","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2023.2185666","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2023.2185666","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The significance of a study of political incumbency and the factors influencing it stems from the fact that it directly affects the behaviour of the incumbent political party and its accountability to the electorate. We use data on Parliamentary Elections in India from 1980 to 2014 to tease out evidence of incumbency advantage. We employ Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) to estimate the incumbency effect. Our results indicate the absence of any incumbency effect when considering all elections in India together. This finding is at odds with the research reported so far. To explain our contrary result, we drilled down deeper to obtain a more granular view of the incumbency effect in India. We do this across various regions of India. The results show that north Indian states generally show strong evidence of incumbency disadvantage while south Indian states show strong evidence of incumbency advantage. We also show that incumbency advantage has increased over time","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"47 1","pages":"43 - 60"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49537035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-02DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2023.2185807
Santos Bila, Z. Khumalo, Phindile Nkosi, Sodiq Arogundade
Abstract Different regions are linked through different factors such as climate, and border sharing. Apart from this, African countries have developed significant links as a result of globalisation, economic integration, and trade liberalisation. Since any country’s economic growth is influenced by the performance of its neighbours, these ties have resulted in spatial dependence among these countries. On this basis, the significance of spatial interactions between countries cannot be overemphasised. It is for this reason that the study investigated spatial dependence between African countries. The study employed non-spatial (FE, GMM) and spatial (SDM, SAM, and SEM) econometrics techniques and data ranging from 1996 to 2019 to examine the impact of ODA on Economic growth in Africa and its spill-over effects. Based on the graphs and the Moran I test, the findings reveal that (i) there is spatial dependence among African countries (ii) The GMM results indicate that the ODA impact was positive and statistically significant but smaller in magnitude compared to the magnitude of the spatial models’ coefficients. This suggests that not controlling for space heterogeneity will possibly underestimate the real impact of ODA on GDP. Secondly, the study found that the weighted GDP was positive and statistically significant, which indicates that an increase in the GDP of a certain country has a positive and statistically significant impact on their neighbour’s economic growth. Based on the findings of the study, it is suggested that countries should improve their relationships and partnerships if they want ODA to provide the desired benefits across Africa.
{"title":"Foreign aids and economic growth in Africa: Does third-country effect matter?","authors":"Santos Bila, Z. Khumalo, Phindile Nkosi, Sodiq Arogundade","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2023.2185807","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2023.2185807","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Different regions are linked through different factors such as climate, and border sharing. Apart from this, African countries have developed significant links as a result of globalisation, economic integration, and trade liberalisation. Since any country’s economic growth is influenced by the performance of its neighbours, these ties have resulted in spatial dependence among these countries. On this basis, the significance of spatial interactions between countries cannot be overemphasised. It is for this reason that the study investigated spatial dependence between African countries. The study employed non-spatial (FE, GMM) and spatial (SDM, SAM, and SEM) econometrics techniques and data ranging from 1996 to 2019 to examine the impact of ODA on Economic growth in Africa and its spill-over effects. Based on the graphs and the Moran I test, the findings reveal that (i) there is spatial dependence among African countries (ii) The GMM results indicate that the ODA impact was positive and statistically significant but smaller in magnitude compared to the magnitude of the spatial models’ coefficients. This suggests that not controlling for space heterogeneity will possibly underestimate the real impact of ODA on GDP. Secondly, the study found that the weighted GDP was positive and statistically significant, which indicates that an increase in the GDP of a certain country has a positive and statistically significant impact on their neighbour’s economic growth. Based on the findings of the study, it is suggested that countries should improve their relationships and partnerships if they want ODA to provide the desired benefits across Africa.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"47 1","pages":"23 - 42"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47449573","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-02DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2023.2185665
Wissem Daadaa
Abstract Female participation on corporate board is one of the most studied topics in corporate governance research. This paper analyzes the effect of female directors and gender diversity on bid ask spread. We calculate the score of female governance and we test three proxies of a bid-ask spread. Our results provide comprehensive and robust evidence for the association between female board participation and stock liquidity in Tunisian market. This study is based on a sample covering all financial firms in Tunisia (banks, insurances, and leasing) from 2008 to 2019 based on panel data approach. We conclude that female directors generate a positive effect on stock liquidity when they have a more active role on the board and when they are represented in relatively large numbers. Female CEO and institutional female directors enhance monitoring quality, develop control and improve supervising. Female directors are more effective at changing board processes, improving governance, and then affect significantly and negatively bid ask spread. Our research is the first to use the female governance index, it proves that female directors improve corporate governance, enhance stock liquidity. This result encourages firms to select competitive women to occupy strategic posts.
{"title":"Female gender diversity on corporate board and bid ask spread","authors":"Wissem Daadaa","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2023.2185665","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2023.2185665","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Female participation on corporate board is one of the most studied topics in corporate governance research. This paper analyzes the effect of female directors and gender diversity on bid ask spread. We calculate the score of female governance and we test three proxies of a bid-ask spread. Our results provide comprehensive and robust evidence for the association between female board participation and stock liquidity in Tunisian market. This study is based on a sample covering all financial firms in Tunisia (banks, insurances, and leasing) from 2008 to 2019 based on panel data approach. We conclude that female directors generate a positive effect on stock liquidity when they have a more active role on the board and when they are represented in relatively large numbers. Female CEO and institutional female directors enhance monitoring quality, develop control and improve supervising. Female directors are more effective at changing board processes, improving governance, and then affect significantly and negatively bid ask spread. Our research is the first to use the female governance index, it proves that female directors improve corporate governance, enhance stock liquidity. This result encourages firms to select competitive women to occupy strategic posts.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"47 1","pages":"61 - 74"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47564909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-02DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2022.2143886
Kholiswa Malindini
Abstract The literature suggests that export diversification is growth-inducing, particularly in developing countries. However, Sub-Saharan Africa has been experiencing deteriorating or insignificant economic growth levels. The region’s exports are highly concentrated; thus, this paper sought to examine the extent of export diversification and its effect on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Further, the paper assessed the presence of a U-shaped hypothesis in the context of SSA. The GMM approximation technique was adopted to examine the model’s relationship and control for endogeneity. The results suggest that export concentration significantly hampers economic growth. The results further indicated that foreign direct investment, domestic investment, and trade openness stimulate growth – while weak governance, fluctuating exchange rates and trade policy also adversely affect economic growth. However, the results do not support a hump-shaped (non-linear) correlation between export diversification and economic growth in SSA. To fully recover from the global pandemic and attain higher levels of economic growth, the Sub-Saharan African region needs to implement policies that allow export products and market diversification. While diversification is crucial for development, improving the quality of governance should also be a prerequisite, given that weak governance may interfere with ratifying appropriate and relevant policies aimed at facilitating export diversification.
{"title":"Rethinking export diversification to stimulate resilience against future economic shocks in Sub-Saharan Africa","authors":"Kholiswa Malindini","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2022.2143886","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2022.2143886","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The literature suggests that export diversification is growth-inducing, particularly in developing countries. However, Sub-Saharan Africa has been experiencing deteriorating or insignificant economic growth levels. The region’s exports are highly concentrated; thus, this paper sought to examine the extent of export diversification and its effect on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Further, the paper assessed the presence of a U-shaped hypothesis in the context of SSA. The GMM approximation technique was adopted to examine the model’s relationship and control for endogeneity. The results suggest that export concentration significantly hampers economic growth. The results further indicated that foreign direct investment, domestic investment, and trade openness stimulate growth – while weak governance, fluctuating exchange rates and trade policy also adversely affect economic growth. However, the results do not support a hump-shaped (non-linear) correlation between export diversification and economic growth in SSA. To fully recover from the global pandemic and attain higher levels of economic growth, the Sub-Saharan African region needs to implement policies that allow export products and market diversification. While diversification is crucial for development, improving the quality of governance should also be a prerequisite, given that weak governance may interfere with ratifying appropriate and relevant policies aimed at facilitating export diversification.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"46 1","pages":"282 - 300"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42198898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-02DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2022.2158123
O. K. Mackenzie, A. Jansen, K. Siebrits
Abstract Taxation has been recognised as a proactive tool for achieving fiscal capacity, yet irreconcilable views exist as to why, decades after independence, countries in Africa still face challenges financing their public spending needs. One of the factors that has been studied in recent years is the performance of the institutions responsible for revenue mobilisation. Countries need effective, efficient, and capable tax authorities to mobilise sufficient revenue. This paper uses data from 27 African countries collected by African Tax Administration Forum (ATAF), to assess the efficiency of African tax administrations. It applies parametric (stochastic frontier) and non-parametric (data envelopment) techniques to generate efficiency scores and rank tax administrations. The results suggest that many African tax administrations operate inefficiently and could improve their performance by between 3 and 79% to reach their maximum capacity. Applying the Tobit regression technique shows that the granting of partial autonomy to revenue collection agencies, the size of the informal sector, size of non-tax revenue, and segmentation of taxpayers have significant effects on the efficiency of tax administrations. The paper highlights the importance of determining the level of efficiency and the factors that matter for improving the performance of revenue authorities and building fiscal capacity.
{"title":"Assessing the efficiency of tax administration in Africa","authors":"O. K. Mackenzie, A. Jansen, K. Siebrits","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2022.2158123","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2022.2158123","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Taxation has been recognised as a proactive tool for achieving fiscal capacity, yet irreconcilable views exist as to why, decades after independence, countries in Africa still face challenges financing their public spending needs. One of the factors that has been studied in recent years is the performance of the institutions responsible for revenue mobilisation. Countries need effective, efficient, and capable tax authorities to mobilise sufficient revenue. This paper uses data from 27 African countries collected by African Tax Administration Forum (ATAF), to assess the efficiency of African tax administrations. It applies parametric (stochastic frontier) and non-parametric (data envelopment) techniques to generate efficiency scores and rank tax administrations. The results suggest that many African tax administrations operate inefficiently and could improve their performance by between 3 and 79% to reach their maximum capacity. Applying the Tobit regression technique shows that the granting of partial autonomy to revenue collection agencies, the size of the informal sector, size of non-tax revenue, and segmentation of taxpayers have significant effects on the efficiency of tax administrations. The paper highlights the importance of determining the level of efficiency and the factors that matter for improving the performance of revenue authorities and building fiscal capacity.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"46 1","pages":"301 - 315"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43936092","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-02DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2022.2138523
Yixiao Jiang
Abstract This study utilises a dynamic panel data method to identify the short-run and long-run effects of host countries’ economic freedom on international tourism, focussing on the least developed countries (LDCs). Based on the panel data of 154 countries from 2002 to 2019, we find that the three broad aspects of economic freedom—property rights enforcement, regulatory efficiency, and market openness—have differential impacts on the LDCs and their more developed counterpart. LDCs are more responsive to an improvement in regulatory efficiency. Specifically, a more efficient labour market and stable price level in the host country attracts more inbound tourism. Tourism in developed countries, in contrast, is more responsive to an improvement in property rights enforcement. As such, we recommend countries consider their development status as they promote tourism.
{"title":"Economic freedom and international tourism: evidence from least developed countries","authors":"Yixiao Jiang","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2022.2138523","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2022.2138523","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study utilises a dynamic panel data method to identify the short-run and long-run effects of host countries’ economic freedom on international tourism, focussing on the least developed countries (LDCs). Based on the panel data of 154 countries from 2002 to 2019, we find that the three broad aspects of economic freedom—property rights enforcement, regulatory efficiency, and market openness—have differential impacts on the LDCs and their more developed counterpart. LDCs are more responsive to an improvement in regulatory efficiency. Specifically, a more efficient labour market and stable price level in the host country attracts more inbound tourism. Tourism in developed countries, in contrast, is more responsive to an improvement in property rights enforcement. As such, we recommend countries consider their development status as they promote tourism.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"46 1","pages":"316 - 328"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49656818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-02DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2022.2135587
A. Geda, Addis Yimer
Abstract This study develops a macro-econometric model for a typical supply constrained African economy aimed at developing a theoretical and empirical template for such policy tools that are increasingly being demanded by African ministries of finance and central banks. We concretised it by building a macro-econometric model for Rwanda. The model is designed to capture the structural characteristics of such an African economy. The Rwanda macro-econometric model has 107 equations of which 72 are endogenous. In addition, we also build a supplementary ARIMA based model with 33 equations for the exogenous variables to make the model useful for forecasting. We disaggregate the fiscal, balance of payments and money supply blocks of the model to offer an adequate picture of the macro-economy. We also do an econometric estimation of the core behavioural equations of the model using the error correction modelling approach for the period 1960–2009. The model can be easily extended further to support the budgeting, forecasting and macroeconomic policy analyses in the relevant ministries and central banks in Africa. We successfully solve the model and reproduce historical values from 1999 to 2009 and forecast major macro-variables for 2010 to 2015. We also use the model to conduct policy and external shock simulation exercise that are important for policymakers.
{"title":"An applied dynamic structural macro-econometric model for Rwanda","authors":"A. Geda, Addis Yimer","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2022.2135587","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2022.2135587","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study develops a macro-econometric model for a typical supply constrained African economy aimed at developing a theoretical and empirical template for such policy tools that are increasingly being demanded by African ministries of finance and central banks. We concretised it by building a macro-econometric model for Rwanda. The model is designed to capture the structural characteristics of such an African economy. The Rwanda macro-econometric model has 107 equations of which 72 are endogenous. In addition, we also build a supplementary ARIMA based model with 33 equations for the exogenous variables to make the model useful for forecasting. We disaggregate the fiscal, balance of payments and money supply blocks of the model to offer an adequate picture of the macro-economy. We also do an econometric estimation of the core behavioural equations of the model using the error correction modelling approach for the period 1960–2009. The model can be easily extended further to support the budgeting, forecasting and macroeconomic policy analyses in the relevant ministries and central banks in Africa. We successfully solve the model and reproduce historical values from 1999 to 2009 and forecast major macro-variables for 2010 to 2015. We also use the model to conduct policy and external shock simulation exercise that are important for policymakers.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"46 1","pages":"249 - 281"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44977747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-03DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2022.2143881
H. Viljoen, W. Conradie, Monique-Mari Britz
Abstract Volatility is one of the measures of risk within the financial markets. GARCH modelling involves important volatility forecasting methodology and is widely used in finance. It is important to be able to forecast volatility since volatility has an impact on financial portfolios and the risk hedging methodology followed by financial companies. This study investigates the behaviour of parameter estimates and volatility forecasts of GARCH models over time, using a rolling window estimation procedure. Three GARCH models, the Symmetric GARCH, GJR-GARCH and E-GARCH models, are compared. The dataset used in the study comprises of the JSE All-Share index. This index is divided into two different periods, namely, a tranquil financial period and a turbulent financial period. Different factors influence the performance of GARCH models and consequently determines which GARCH model is the most suited for certain circumstances. These factors are: the sample window period, forecasting horison, the financial period and the underlying distribution of the log returns.
{"title":"The influence of different financial market regimes on the dynamic estimation of GARCH volatility model parameters and volatility forecasting","authors":"H. Viljoen, W. Conradie, Monique-Mari Britz","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2022.2143881","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2022.2143881","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Volatility is one of the measures of risk within the financial markets. GARCH modelling involves important volatility forecasting methodology and is widely used in finance. It is important to be able to forecast volatility since volatility has an impact on financial portfolios and the risk hedging methodology followed by financial companies. This study investigates the behaviour of parameter estimates and volatility forecasts of GARCH models over time, using a rolling window estimation procedure. Three GARCH models, the Symmetric GARCH, GJR-GARCH and E-GARCH models, are compared. The dataset used in the study comprises of the JSE All-Share index. This index is divided into two different periods, namely, a tranquil financial period and a turbulent financial period. Different factors influence the performance of GARCH models and consequently determines which GARCH model is the most suited for certain circumstances. These factors are: the sample window period, forecasting horison, the financial period and the underlying distribution of the log returns.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"46 1","pages":"169 - 184"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48383367","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-03DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2022.2143883
Charles Kakuru, T. Kaulihowa
Abstract The paper aims to investigate the determinants of supply and demand-side factors of house price dynamics and their impact on household indebtedness in Namibia. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was used. The findings support the hypothesis’ that supply-side and demand-side factors had a significant effect on house price as well as household indebtedness. It was found that money supply, working population, construction cost index, mortgage loans, previous quarter house prices, and current GDP were found to be the key determinants of both supply and demand-side factors of house-price dynamics in Namibia. Additionally, an increase in mortgage loans would increase household indebtedness in the short run and was found to be the key determinant of household indebtedness in Namibia. This indicates that an expansionary monetary policy could address the twin problem of rising house prices and household indebtedness. Policy implications derived from the study indicate that although monetary policy can be used to address the issues of escalating house prices and indebtedness, this policy intervention may be limited because Namibia does not have an autonomy regarding its monetary policy due to its currency board operations arrangement.
{"title":"Determinants of house price dynamics and household indebtedness in Namibia","authors":"Charles Kakuru, T. Kaulihowa","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2022.2143883","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2022.2143883","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The paper aims to investigate the determinants of supply and demand-side factors of house price dynamics and their impact on household indebtedness in Namibia. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was used. The findings support the hypothesis’ that supply-side and demand-side factors had a significant effect on house price as well as household indebtedness. It was found that money supply, working population, construction cost index, mortgage loans, previous quarter house prices, and current GDP were found to be the key determinants of both supply and demand-side factors of house-price dynamics in Namibia. Additionally, an increase in mortgage loans would increase household indebtedness in the short run and was found to be the key determinant of household indebtedness in Namibia. This indicates that an expansionary monetary policy could address the twin problem of rising house prices and household indebtedness. Policy implications derived from the study indicate that although monetary policy can be used to address the issues of escalating house prices and indebtedness, this policy intervention may be limited because Namibia does not have an autonomy regarding its monetary policy due to its currency board operations arrangement.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"46 1","pages":"185 - 200"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47266559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-03DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2022.2143885
I. Anyikwa, Lehlohonolo Domela
Abstract This study investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS), for the period 2009:M1 to 2019: M12. To capture the short- and long-term symmetric and asymmetric relationships, the linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models were employed. The findings indicate that rising exchange rate volatility is associated with growing trade flows in Russia and India while declining exchange rate volatility reduces Chinese imports. It is also revealed that rising and declining exchange rate volatility have opposite effect on trade flow in South Africa. Additionally, the result show evidence of both long run and short run asymmetric behaviour. Accordingly, this study recommends the adoption of flexible exchange rate policy among BRICS economies and that traders and businesses should take advantage of exchange rate volatility.
{"title":"Asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows in BRICS economies","authors":"I. Anyikwa, Lehlohonolo Domela","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2022.2143885","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2022.2143885","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS), for the period 2009:M1 to 2019: M12. To capture the short- and long-term symmetric and asymmetric relationships, the linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models were employed. The findings indicate that rising exchange rate volatility is associated with growing trade flows in Russia and India while declining exchange rate volatility reduces Chinese imports. It is also revealed that rising and declining exchange rate volatility have opposite effect on trade flow in South Africa. Additionally, the result show evidence of both long run and short run asymmetric behaviour. Accordingly, this study recommends the adoption of flexible exchange rate policy among BRICS economies and that traders and businesses should take advantage of exchange rate volatility.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"46 1","pages":"224 - 247"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42698012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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