Pub Date : 2021-09-02DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2021.1988258
Sulgiye Park, Terry McNulty, Allison Puccioni, R. Ewing
Abstract The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)’s only confirmed uranium mill is within the Pyongsan uranium mining complex. The ore processing pathway and the production capacity for uranium concentrate is analyzed, based on comprehensive satellite imagery analysis of this facility. This assessment of the Pyongsan facility indicates an ore processing capacity of ∼750–1,200 tonnes per day. One year of maximum production at Pyongsan would yield enough processed ore to fuel one load of the 5 MWe reactor in Yongbyon as well as ∼3,000 kg of LEU or ∼100 kg of HEU. The analysis suggests that the ore processing capacity at Pyongsan is not a constraint on the DPRK’s nuclear material production and that the available capacity at the Pyongsan milling facility strongly suggests that the DPRK has no need in another uranium milling facility of a comparable size. This report provides an improved understanding of the ore processing steps and production rates of the only confirmed uranium mill in the DPRK, enabling a more quantitative assessment of its nuclear materials production and inventories.
{"title":"Assessing Uranium Ore Processing Activities Using Satellite Imagery at Pyongsan in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea","authors":"Sulgiye Park, Terry McNulty, Allison Puccioni, R. Ewing","doi":"10.1080/08929882.2021.1988258","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08929882.2021.1988258","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)’s only confirmed uranium mill is within the Pyongsan uranium mining complex. The ore processing pathway and the production capacity for uranium concentrate is analyzed, based on comprehensive satellite imagery analysis of this facility. This assessment of the Pyongsan facility indicates an ore processing capacity of ∼750–1,200 tonnes per day. One year of maximum production at Pyongsan would yield enough processed ore to fuel one load of the 5 MWe reactor in Yongbyon as well as ∼3,000 kg of LEU or ∼100 kg of HEU. The analysis suggests that the ore processing capacity at Pyongsan is not a constraint on the DPRK’s nuclear material production and that the available capacity at the Pyongsan milling facility strongly suggests that the DPRK has no need in another uranium milling facility of a comparable size. This report provides an improved understanding of the ore processing steps and production rates of the only confirmed uranium mill in the DPRK, enabling a more quantitative assessment of its nuclear materials production and inventories.","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"28 1","pages":"111 - 144"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2021-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73062574","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-02DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2021.1999054
J. D. T. D. Lanversin, M. Kütt
Abstract North Korea produced weapon-grade plutonium in its graphite-moderated 5-MWe reactor. Estimating the total production of fissile materials provides an important baseline for denuclearization efforts. Nuclear archaeology can improve such production estimates by measuring isotope ratios in the graphite moderator of the reactor. The accumulation of certain trace isotopes in the graphite enables to accurately estimate life-time reactor fluence which can then be related to plutonium production. This article uses the open-source reactor physics software ONIX to simulate the operation of the 5-MWe reactor. It discusses consolidated estimates of plutonium production from 1986 to 2020 based on publicly available operation history data. An updated mathematical framework to relate isotope ratio uncertainties to fluence uncertainties and its implementation in a special ONIX module for nuclear archaeology are also presented. The module is used to identify which isotope ratios should be measured in the 5-MWe reactor to minimize uncertainties on plutonium estimation.
{"title":"Verifying North Korea’s Plutonium Production with Nuclear Archaeology","authors":"J. D. T. D. Lanversin, M. Kütt","doi":"10.1080/08929882.2021.1999054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08929882.2021.1999054","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract North Korea produced weapon-grade plutonium in its graphite-moderated 5-MWe reactor. Estimating the total production of fissile materials provides an important baseline for denuclearization efforts. Nuclear archaeology can improve such production estimates by measuring isotope ratios in the graphite moderator of the reactor. The accumulation of certain trace isotopes in the graphite enables to accurately estimate life-time reactor fluence which can then be related to plutonium production. This article uses the open-source reactor physics software ONIX to simulate the operation of the 5-MWe reactor. It discusses consolidated estimates of plutonium production from 1986 to 2020 based on publicly available operation history data. An updated mathematical framework to relate isotope ratio uncertainties to fluence uncertainties and its implementation in a special ONIX module for nuclear archaeology are also presented. The module is used to identify which isotope ratios should be measured in the 5-MWe reactor to minimize uncertainties on plutonium estimation.","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"1 1","pages":"145 - 166"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2021-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89499110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"South Asia in 1986","authors":"S. Cohen","doi":"10.4324/9780429036675-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429036675-8","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"117 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2021-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74310096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The International Economy with a National Security Perspective","authors":"G. Hufbauer, K. Elliott","doi":"10.4324/9780429036675-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429036675-3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"57 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2021-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88416169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Soviet Economy: In Search of Reform","authors":"H. S. Levine","doi":"10.4324/9780429036675-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429036675-4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2021-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78642853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Southern Africa: Descent into Chaos?","authors":"Michael W. Clough","doi":"10.4324/9780429036675-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429036675-5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2021-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83073831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The East-West Military Balance","authors":"James J. Townsend","doi":"10.4324/9780429036675-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429036675-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"21 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2021-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72607074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Year in Review","authors":"Barry M. Blechman, E. Luttwak","doi":"10.4324/9780429036675-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429036675-1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2021-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75923354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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