Pub Date : 2023-03-06DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2023.2184563
L. Sigal, F. V. von Hippel
{"title":"Hinge Points: An inside Look at North Korea’s Nuclear Program","authors":"L. Sigal, F. V. von Hippel","doi":"10.1080/08929882.2023.2184563","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08929882.2023.2184563","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"254 1","pages":"48 - 53"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73192186","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-09-02DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2022.2145777
G. Candler, I. Leyva
Abstract Hypersonic boost-glide vehicles are designed to fly long distances in the upper atmosphere. They are reported to have the potential to evade ballistic missile early warning systems and to maneuver as they fly toward their target. A recent analysis by Tracy and Wright in Science & Global Security claimed to show that typical boost-glide vehicles produce significant infrared signatures that would be readily detectable with existing U.S. satellites and therefore questioned the potential advantages of hypersonic weapons over existing missiles. The prior analysis is revisited and several inconsistencies in the underlying assumptions are described. A detailed computational fluid dynamics analysis predicts typical infrared signatures to be significantly lower than those predicted by Tracy and Wright. As a result, these signatures would fall below the detection threshold of legacy U.S. Defense Support Program satellites but remain detectable by the more modern sensors from the Space-Based Infrared System. There are two significant issues with the prior analysis: an incorrect aerodynamic angle of attack was used, and the turbulent heat transfer rate correlation used to predict the surface temperature is inaccurate at the conditions studied.
{"title":"Computational Fluid Dynamics Analysis of the Infrared Emission From a Generic Hypersonic Glide Vehicle","authors":"G. Candler, I. Leyva","doi":"10.1080/08929882.2022.2145777","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08929882.2022.2145777","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Hypersonic boost-glide vehicles are designed to fly long distances in the upper atmosphere. They are reported to have the potential to evade ballistic missile early warning systems and to maneuver as they fly toward their target. A recent analysis by Tracy and Wright in Science & Global Security claimed to show that typical boost-glide vehicles produce significant infrared signatures that would be readily detectable with existing U.S. satellites and therefore questioned the potential advantages of hypersonic weapons over existing missiles. The prior analysis is revisited and several inconsistencies in the underlying assumptions are described. A detailed computational fluid dynamics analysis predicts typical infrared signatures to be significantly lower than those predicted by Tracy and Wright. As a result, these signatures would fall below the detection threshold of legacy U.S. Defense Support Program satellites but remain detectable by the more modern sensors from the Space-Based Infrared System. There are two significant issues with the prior analysis: an incorrect aerodynamic angle of attack was used, and the turbulent heat transfer rate correlation used to predict the surface temperature is inaccurate at the conditions studied.","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"69 1","pages":"117 - 130"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84150767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-09-02DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2022.2164407
C. Tracy, R. Ewing
Abstract Efforts by the United States and Russia to bilaterally reduce their weapons plutonium stockpiles are currently stalled following a U.S. decision to dilute and bury excess plutonium in a geologic repository. Russia has derided this approach as impermanent and easily reversible. Conversely, many analysts contend that the recovery of buried plutonium would require large-scale mining operations, rendering it observable and preventable. Here, we show that the use of advanced mining techniques overlooked in prior analysis (namely, salt solution mining and in situ leaching) would enable the rapid, clandestine recovery of buried plutonium. Burial would therefore yield a novel plutonium geologic resource. We attribute the persistence of international technical controversy over the permanence of plutonium burial to state-level divergence in U.S. and Russian technological framings of plutonium and geologic repositories—distinct socially constructed understandings of the meanings, uses, and risks of these technologies.
{"title":"Mining for the Bomb: The Vulnerability of Buried Plutonium to Clandestine Recovery","authors":"C. Tracy, R. Ewing","doi":"10.1080/08929882.2022.2164407","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08929882.2022.2164407","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Efforts by the United States and Russia to bilaterally reduce their weapons plutonium stockpiles are currently stalled following a U.S. decision to dilute and bury excess plutonium in a geologic repository. Russia has derided this approach as impermanent and easily reversible. Conversely, many analysts contend that the recovery of buried plutonium would require large-scale mining operations, rendering it observable and preventable. Here, we show that the use of advanced mining techniques overlooked in prior analysis (namely, salt solution mining and in situ leaching) would enable the rapid, clandestine recovery of buried plutonium. Burial would therefore yield a novel plutonium geologic resource. We attribute the persistence of international technical controversy over the permanence of plutonium burial to state-level divergence in U.S. and Russian technological framings of plutonium and geologic repositories—distinct socially constructed understandings of the meanings, uses, and risks of these technologies.","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"76 1","pages":"131 - 162"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87291836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-06DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2022.2075659
Published in Science & Global Security: The Technical Basis for Arms Control, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation Initiatives (Vol. 30, No. 1, 2022)
《科学与全球安全:军控、裁军和防扩散倡议的技术基础》(第30卷，第1期，2022年)
{"title":"Editors’ Note","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/08929882.2022.2075659","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08929882.2022.2075659","url":null,"abstract":"Published in Science & Global Security: The Technical Basis for Arms Control, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation Initiatives (Vol. 30, No. 1, 2022)","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138520577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-05-04DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2022.2119716
F. V. von Hippel
Abstract In 1958, the Soviet physicist Andrei Sakharov published an estimate of the long-term health impacts from carbon-14 produced by nuclear test explosions in the atmosphere. At the time, Sakharov was an important contributor to the Soviet Union's development of multi-megaton thermonuclear weapons. This was Sakharov's first public expression of concern about the weapons work in which he was involved. Subsequently, he became a campaigner for human rights in the Soviet Union and for international cooperation and received the 1975 Nobel Peace Prize in recognition of the importance of his efforts. This article provides some context for his estimate and compares it with estimates based on dose estimates by the UN Scientific Committee on Effects of Atomic Radiation and dose-effect estimates by the US National Academies.
{"title":"The Long-Term Global Health Burden from Nuclear Weapon Test Explosions in the Atmosphere: Revisiting Andrei Sakharov’s 1958 Estimates","authors":"F. V. von Hippel","doi":"10.1080/08929882.2022.2119716","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08929882.2022.2119716","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In 1958, the Soviet physicist Andrei Sakharov published an estimate of the long-term health impacts from carbon-14 produced by nuclear test explosions in the atmosphere. At the time, Sakharov was an important contributor to the Soviet Union's development of multi-megaton thermonuclear weapons. This was Sakharov's first public expression of concern about the weapons work in which he was involved. Subsequently, he became a campaigner for human rights in the Soviet Union and for international cooperation and received the 1975 Nobel Peace Prize in recognition of the importance of his efforts. This article provides some context for his estimate and compares it with estimates based on dose estimates by the UN Scientific Committee on Effects of Atomic Radiation and dose-effect estimates by the US National Academies.","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"74 1","pages":"54 - 61"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85713464","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-05-04DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2022.2087352
I. Crawford
{"title":"Dark Skies: Space Expansionism, Planetary Geopolitics, and the Ends of Humanity","authors":"I. Crawford","doi":"10.1080/08929882.2022.2087352","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08929882.2022.2087352","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"54 6 1","pages":"108 - 113"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86484406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-05-04DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2022.2111880
O. Reistad, A. Glaser, Rebecca D. Frank, Sindre H. Kaald
Abstract Deeper reductions in the nuclear arsenals will require better understanding of historic fissile material management and production. The concept of “nuclear archaeology” has been considered since the 1990s to provide the tools and methods to develop independent production estimates, primarily based on nuclear forensic techniques. Here, we propose to add a framework for reconstructing the history of a nuclear program that complements traditional nuclear archaeology techniques by examining the role of operating records to support such an effort. As a test case, we use the JEEP II reactor, a 2 MW civilian research reactor at Norway’s Institute for Energy Technology (IFE), in operation for more than fifty years, however, recently shut down permanently. We have collected, analyzed, and started to preserve the reactor’s operating records, which exist on both analog and digital media, and to simulate parts of its history using OpenMC/ONIX neutronics calculations. A particular focus of this project has been on digital data curation and preservation to confirm and maintain the integrity, authenticity, and provenance of these records. In developing guidelines for best practices that conform to existing standards for long-term digital preservation and curation, we hope this project can help lay the basis for future nuclear archaeology efforts to support nuclear arms control and disarmament.
{"title":"Document-Based Nuclear Archaeology","authors":"O. Reistad, A. Glaser, Rebecca D. Frank, Sindre H. Kaald","doi":"10.1080/08929882.2022.2111880","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08929882.2022.2111880","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Deeper reductions in the nuclear arsenals will require better understanding of historic fissile material management and production. The concept of “nuclear archaeology” has been considered since the 1990s to provide the tools and methods to develop independent production estimates, primarily based on nuclear forensic techniques. Here, we propose to add a framework for reconstructing the history of a nuclear program that complements traditional nuclear archaeology techniques by examining the role of operating records to support such an effort. As a test case, we use the JEEP II reactor, a 2 MW civilian research reactor at Norway’s Institute for Energy Technology (IFE), in operation for more than fifty years, however, recently shut down permanently. We have collected, analyzed, and started to preserve the reactor’s operating records, which exist on both analog and digital media, and to simulate parts of its history using OpenMC/ONIX neutronics calculations. A particular focus of this project has been on digital data curation and preservation to confirm and maintain the integrity, authenticity, and provenance of these records. In developing guidelines for best practices that conform to existing standards for long-term digital preservation and curation, we hope this project can help lay the basis for future nuclear archaeology efforts to support nuclear arms control and disarmament.","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"15 1","pages":"95 - 107"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89711126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-02DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2022.2060599
Benjamin Jung, M. Göttsche
Abstract Independent estimates of lifetime plutonium production can be made using forensic measurements of characteristic indicator isotope ratios in core structural elements in shut-down nuclear reactors. Incomplete knowledge of a reactor’s operational history, including fuel burnup, as well as uncertainties in nuclear cross-section data, can significantly affect such plutonium estimates, making it potentially difficult to match estimates with a state’s declaration. Monte Carlo methods and sensitivity analysis techniques are used to assess the propagation of different uncertainties and their impact on plutonium estimates in infinite lattice models of a heavy-water moderated reactor (CANDU 6) and a graphite-moderated reactor (the 5 MWe reactor in North Korea), with titanium-48/titanium-49 and boron-10/boron-11 as the respective indicator isotope ratios. A tolerance interval model, with specified confidence levels, rather than one based on mean values and standard deviations, is proposed for assessing plutonium estimates based on isotope ratios measurements.
{"title":"Assessing Uncertainty in Plutonium Production Estimates Based on the Isotope Ratio Method","authors":"Benjamin Jung, M. Göttsche","doi":"10.1080/08929882.2022.2060599","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08929882.2022.2060599","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Independent estimates of lifetime plutonium production can be made using forensic measurements of characteristic indicator isotope ratios in core structural elements in shut-down nuclear reactors. Incomplete knowledge of a reactor’s operational history, including fuel burnup, as well as uncertainties in nuclear cross-section data, can significantly affect such plutonium estimates, making it potentially difficult to match estimates with a state’s declaration. Monte Carlo methods and sensitivity analysis techniques are used to assess the propagation of different uncertainties and their impact on plutonium estimates in infinite lattice models of a heavy-water moderated reactor (CANDU 6) and a graphite-moderated reactor (the 5 MWe reactor in North Korea), with titanium-48/titanium-49 and boron-10/boron-11 as the respective indicator isotope ratios. A tolerance interval model, with specified confidence levels, rather than one based on mean values and standard deviations, is proposed for assessing plutonium estimates based on isotope ratios measurements.","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"11 1","pages":"3 - 21"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79958503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-02DOI: 10.1080/08929882.2022.2063334
I. Morić
Abstract A growing number of commercial Earth observation satellite systems provide capabilities with significant application in nuclear verification, monitoring, and proliferation analysis. This article provides some relevant examples and a case study describing the importance of spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution on detectability of ground targets and monitoring of activity. The article also provides an overview of 300 operational (as of September 2021) optical and radar systems with a ground resolution of 5 m or better, whose imagery is available to the public. By merging all satellites into one super-constellation, a simulation was performed to describe its potential coverage. The analysis suggests that with current commercial capabilities it would be possible to image newly discovered alleged ICBM fields in China every few hours with a ground resolution sufficient to detect new construction and missile uploading.
{"title":"Capabilities of Commercial Satellite Earth Observation Systems and Applications for Nuclear Verification and Monitoring","authors":"I. Morić","doi":"10.1080/08929882.2022.2063334","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08929882.2022.2063334","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract A growing number of commercial Earth observation satellite systems provide capabilities with significant application in nuclear verification, monitoring, and proliferation analysis. This article provides some relevant examples and a case study describing the importance of spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution on detectability of ground targets and monitoring of activity. The article also provides an overview of 300 operational (as of September 2021) optical and radar systems with a ground resolution of 5 m or better, whose imagery is available to the public. By merging all satellites into one super-constellation, a simulation was performed to describe its potential coverage. The analysis suggests that with current commercial capabilities it would be possible to image newly discovered alleged ICBM fields in China every few hours with a ground resolution sufficient to detect new construction and missile uploading.","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"2 1","pages":"22 - 49"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73303837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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