Achieving a sustainable and low-carbon energy transition requires the strategic deployment of renewable resources, with biomass playing a pivotal role. However, biomass allocation pathways and life-cycle impacts in China remain insufficiently examined. This study quantifies biomass resource availability and spatial distribution, optimizes allocation among power generation, heating, biogas, and liquid biofuels using a sequential quadratic programming model, and applies life-cycle assessment to estimate CO2 mitigation potential. Results show that: (1) China’s collectable biomass potential reaches 1.36 billion tons of standard coal equivalent, complementing coal resources and aligning well with regional energy demand; (2) To achieve carbon-neutrality targets, biomass feedstock consumption is projected to reach 16.82 EJ by 2030 and 27.96 EJ by 2060, requiring investments of 650 billion and 1.218 trillion RMB, respectively; (3) Biomass could replace 450 million tons of coal in 2030 (11.23% of primary energy consumption) and 607 million tons in 2060 (12.65%), with bio-kerosene exhibiting the fastest growth; and (4) Carbon-prioritized allocation delivers 12.8% greater CO2 reductions than cost minimization, with key provinces contributing 64% of national mitigation potential (835.25 Mt) by 2060. The integrated assessment–allocation–LCA framework supports China’s dual-carbon targets and Sustainable Development Goals 7 and 13.
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