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Integrative deep learning architectures and convolutional neural networks for advanced fault classification in photovoltaic modules 集成深度学习和卷积神经网络的光伏组件高级故障分类
IF 7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.seta.2025.104725
Rayappa David Amar Raj , Rama Muni Reddy Yanamala , Archana Pallakonda , Jamshid Aghaei , Edris Pouresmaeil
The growing adoption of photovoltaic (PV) systems emphasizes the demand for effective fault detection approaches for maintaining the system’s performance. Conventional methods, like electroluminescence imaging and infrared thermography, usually need manual intervention and are less suitable for large-rated and real-time fault studies. Hence, deep learning techniques, especially convolutional neural networks (CNN), have been proposed and confirmed to efficiently automate fault detection by preprocessing images and determining patterns associated with defects like cracks, hotspots, and soiling. In this paper, we have reviewed around 125 research papers, the various fault detection and classification methods based on generalized CNNs, advanced CNN architectures, transfer learning, generative adversarial networks, support vector machine, YOLO-based, advanced image processing, feature extraction, lightweight CNN, multi-attention and ensembling to handle data imbalance, and real-time detection, navigating them suitable for large-rated PV farm monitoring. Some benchmark datasets and the proper deep learning model selection for optimized PV fault detection for a specific application context is discussed in detail. Despite advancements, practical drawbacks and challenges, such as unbalanced datasets, massive computations, and the necessity for lightweight architectures, have also been studied in detail. This study presents a practical feasibility of Deep learning-based hardware accelerator for VGG16 for real-time solar fault detection, optimizing throughput, memory, and scalability using drone-captured IR images. The paper concludes by providing future research directions on real-time deployment, combining IoT-based monitoring with cutting-edge lightweight CNN models to improve the expandability and efficiency of solar fault detection systems.
光伏(PV)系统的日益普及强调了对有效的故障检测方法的需求,以保持系统的性能。传统的方法,如电致发光成像和红外热成像,通常需要人工干预,不适合大额定值和实时故障研究。因此,深度学习技术,特别是卷积神经网络(CNN),已经被提出并证实可以通过预处理图像和确定与裂纹、热点和污垢等缺陷相关的模式来有效地自动化故障检测。在本文中,我们回顾了大约125篇研究论文,各种基于广义CNN、高级CNN架构、迁移学习、生成对抗网络、支持向量机、基于ylo的、高级图像处理、特征提取、轻量级CNN、多关注和集成处理数据不平衡、实时检测和导航的故障检测和分类方法,适用于大型光伏电站监测。详细讨论了针对特定应用环境优化PV故障检测的一些基准数据集和适当的深度学习模型选择。尽管取得了进步,但实际的缺点和挑战,如不平衡的数据集、大量的计算和轻量级架构的必要性,也得到了详细的研究。本研究提出了一种基于深度学习的VGG16硬件加速器的实际可行性,用于实时太阳能故障检测,优化吞吐量、内存和使用无人机捕获的红外图像的可扩展性。最后,提出了未来实时部署的研究方向,将基于物联网的监测与前沿的轻量级CNN模型相结合,提高太阳能故障检测系统的可扩展性和效率。
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引用次数: 0
Photovoltaic plant reduced soil salinity under the panels by 56% in coastal saline lands 在沿海盐碱地,光伏电站将面板下的土壤盐度降低了56%
IF 7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.seta.2025.104792
Yan Shu , Guoqing Li , Jianxin Teng , Zhenzong Wang , Xinglong Guo , Xiaodong Dong
Building solar power stations on saline-alkali land promotes clean energy and efficient land use. However, concerns exist about the potential impact of photovoltaic power stations on soil salinity in such areas. Elevated salinity may accelerate land degradation and affect surrounding farmland and groundwater systems. We selected the Dongji Photovoltaic Power Station located on coastal saline-alkali land in the Yellow River Delta as a case study. Through stratified soil sampling combined with meteorological observations and water-salt transport modeling, we analyzed the seasonal dynamics and drivers of soil salinity under the photovoltaic panels, in the gaps between them, and on natural land outside the station. The results indicate the following: (1) Photovoltaic arrays reduce under-panel salinity by 56% compared with natural land, maintaining a low soil salinity level throughout the year. (2) Soil salinity between solar panels varies seasonally: it is lower than that of natural land (April to August), slightly higher otherwise. (3) Shading reduces soil temperature and evapotranspiration, stabilizing under-panel soil salinity, while fluctuations in these parameters in inter-panel gaps drive its seasonal changes. This study confirms that photovoltaic panel coverage significantly alters soil salinity patterns, offering a scientific basis and optimized management strategies for integrated photovoltaic agriculture development on saline-alkali land.
在盐碱地上建设太阳能电站,促进了清洁能源和土地高效利用。然而,人们担心光伏电站对这些地区土壤盐分的潜在影响。盐度升高可能加速土地退化,并影响周围的农田和地下水系统。我们选择了位于黄河三角洲沿海盐碱地的东集光伏电站作为案例研究。通过分层土壤采样,结合气象观测和水盐运输模型,分析了光伏板下、光伏板间隙和站外自然土地土壤盐分的季节动态和驱动因素。结果表明:(1)与自然土地相比,光伏阵列可降低板下盐分56%,全年保持较低的土壤盐分水平。(2)太阳能板间土壤矿化度随季节变化,低于自然地(4 ~ 8月),高于自然地(4 ~ 8月)。(3)遮荫降低了土壤温度和蒸散量,稳定了面板下土壤盐度,而面板间隙内这些参数的波动驱动了面板下土壤盐度的季节变化。本研究证实了光伏板覆盖显著改变了土壤盐分格局,为盐碱地光伏农业综合发展提供了科学依据和优化管理策略。
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引用次数: 0
Turbulence characteristics and anisotropy in the wake of a tidal turbine under bathymetry-induced shear flow 测深诱导剪切流下潮汐涡轮尾迹的湍流特性和各向异性
IF 7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.seta.2025.104782
Long Chen , Shengli Cai , Zhenkai Sun , Ren Jie Chin
A series of controlled flume experiments were conducted to investigate the influence of bathymetry-induced shear flow on the turbulent wake dynamics of a scaled three-bladed horizontal-axis tidal turbine. The velocity field and turbulence structure downstream of the rotor were measured using a three-dimensional Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter (ADV), enabling detailed characterization of transient turbulence intensity and Reynolds stress distributions. Turbulence intensity was used to assess spatial wake development, while turbulence anisotropy was quantified via the Lumley triangle framework. The results show that seabed-generated shear significantly modifies wake development, producing elevated turbulence near the lower blade tip and altered mixing patterns relative to uniform inflow. Lumley-triangle analysis reveals pronounced rod-like and, in some cases, quasi-one-component turbulence states—features not previously reported for bathymetry-affected turbine wakes. These anisotropic structures persist farther downstream in the lower wake and intensify as the rotor approaches the seabed. These findings highlight the critical role of environmental shear in shaping wake turbulence structure and underscore the importance of incorporating anisotropic turbulence modeling in predictive flow simulations.
通过控制水槽试验,研究了水深诱导剪切流对三叶水平轴潮汐水轮机湍流尾迹动力学的影响。利用三维声学多普勒测速仪(ADV)测量了转子下游的速度场和湍流结构,详细表征了瞬态湍流强度和雷诺应力分布。湍流强度用于评估空间尾流发展,湍流各向异性通过Lumley三角框架进行量化。结果表明,海底产生的剪切显著地改变了尾流的发展,在叶片下端附近产生湍流,改变了相对于均匀入流的混合模式。拉姆利三角分析揭示了明显的杆状,在某些情况下,准单组分湍流状态,这些特征以前没有报道过水深影响涡轮尾迹。这些各向异性结构在下游较低的尾流中持续存在,并在旋翼接近海床时加强。这些发现强调了环境剪切在尾流湍流结构形成中的关键作用,并强调了在预测流动模拟中结合各向异性湍流建模的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Green inclusive finance: a critical catalyst for energy transition 绿色普惠金融:能源转型的关键催化剂
IF 7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.seta.2025.104790
Yaofeng Yang , Xiuqing Li , Wenfei Song , Lan Fang , Luping Li , Yajuan Chen
Faced with the severe challenge of global climate change, energy transition has been recognized as a critical strategy for countries to address this issue. As a financial innovation tool, can green inclusive finance serve as a key solution to the funding bottlenecks of clean energy projects and ensure the sustainability of energy transition? To address this question, this paper develops a theoretical model and employs balanced panel data from 31 provinces (municipalities) in China spanning 2005–2022. We utilize a two-way fixed effects panel model, two-stage least squares (2SLS), and a mediation effect model to empirically examine the impact and mechanisms of green inclusive finance on energy transition.The results demonstrate that green inclusive finance significantly promotes energy transition through three pathways: enhancing technological advancement, improving green total factor productivity, and upgrading industrial structure. Furthermore, the study reveals that the promotive effect of green inclusive finance on energy transition varies under different environmental regulations, industrial agglomeration levels, urban–rural income gaps, and regional economic development stages, with notable regional disparities. Finally, both the degree of openness to foreign trade and supportive policies are found to reinforce this promotive effect. The findings of this research provide policy insights for policymakers in developing countries and other nations facing similar challenges, offering guidance for designing long-term frameworks to advance energy transition.
面对全球气候变化的严峻挑战,能源转型已被公认为各国应对这一问题的关键战略。绿色普惠金融作为一种金融创新工具,能否成为解决清洁能源项目融资瓶颈、确保能源转型可持续性的关键?为了解决这一问题,本文建立了一个理论模型,并采用了中国31个省(市)2005-2022年的平衡面板数据。本文运用双向固定效应面板模型、两阶段最小二乘模型和中介效应模型实证检验了绿色普惠金融对能源转型的影响及其机制。结果表明,绿色普惠金融通过促进技术进步、提高绿色全要素生产率和提升产业结构三个途径显著促进能源转型。此外,研究还发现,绿色普惠金融对能源转型的促进作用在不同的环境规制、产业集聚水平、城乡收入差距、区域经济发展阶段等方面存在差异,且区域差异显著。最后,发现对外贸易开放程度和支持政策都加强了这种促进作用。本研究的发现为面临类似挑战的发展中国家和其他国家的政策制定者提供了政策见解,为设计促进能源转型的长期框架提供了指导。
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引用次数: 0
Hybrid approach of energy management and power quality enhancement in smart grid-connected hybrid renewable energy system 智能并网混合可再生能源系统能源管理与电能质量提升的混合方法
IF 7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.seta.2025.104763
Shree Ram Senthil Subramani, Balamurugan Rangaswamy
In microgrids, mismatched feeder impedances and varying Distributed Generators (DGs) ratings can increase harmonics, causing Total Harmonic Distortion (THD) and voltage imbalance at common coupling and DG terminals. This paper presents a hybrid approach for improving Power Quality (PQ) in Renewable Energy Systems (RES) within microgrid, using Shunt Active Power Filter (SAPF). This work aims to minimize THD and improve system performance utilizing an Artificial Rabbits Optimized Neural Network (ARONN) for predictive modeling and grid stability, with solar and wind sources supplying the smart grid and generating reference signals for the SAPF. The performance of the proposed technique is estimated in MATLAB and benchmarked against Ant Lion Optimizer (ALO), Atom Search Optimization (ASO), and Adaptive Whale Optimization with Tabu Search (AWOTS). FFT analysis was conducted under three operating conditions including PV only, wind only, and hybrid PV-wind system. The ARONN-controlled SAPF consistently maintains low harmonic distortion across all cases. In PV case, voltage and current THD are 2.97% and 0.61%, respectively. For the wind module, THD remains controlled at 3.52% for voltage and 3.97% for current. The hybrid PV-wind system achieved 0.55% voltage THD and 3.27% current THD, confirming effective harmonic mitigation and enhanced power quality under all operating modes.
在微电网中,不匹配的馈线阻抗和不同的分布式发电机(DG)额定值会增加谐波,导致共耦合和DG终端的总谐波失真(THD)和电压不平衡。本文提出了一种利用并联有源电力滤波器(SAPF)改善微电网内可再生能源系统电能质量的混合方法。这项工作旨在利用人工兔子优化神经网络(ARONN)进行预测建模和电网稳定性,利用太阳能和风能资源提供智能电网并为SAPF生成参考信号,最大限度地减少THD并提高系统性能。在MATLAB中对该技术的性能进行了估计,并与蚂蚁狮子优化器(ALO)、原子搜索优化器(ASO)和禁忌搜索自适应鲸鱼优化器(AWOTS)进行了基准测试。在仅光伏、仅风能和光伏-风能混合系统三种工况下进行FFT分析。在所有情况下,aron控制的SAPF始终保持低谐波失真。在PV情况下,电压THD为2.97%,电流THD为0.61%。对于风力组件,THD仍然控制在3.52%的电压和3.97%的电流。混合PV-wind系统实现了0.55%的电压THD和3.27%的电流THD,在所有工作模式下都有效地缓解了谐波,提高了电能质量。
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引用次数: 0
A decentralized optimization framework for peer-to-peer trading in multivector energy systems 多矢量能源系统点对点交易的分散优化框架
IF 7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.seta.2025.104784
Jordi Falguera-Garcia , Sara Barja-Martinez , Mònica Aragüés-Peñalba , David Verez , Esther Izquierdo-Martinez
The transition towards sustainable and decentralized energy systems is driving the need for advanced market mechanisms capable of coordinating multiple energy vectors at community scale. This paper presents a novel multivectorial decentralized peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading framework capable of jointly managing consumption, generation, storage, and cross-vector transformations. A fully decentralized optimization model is formulated in which each peer autonomously optimizes its local multi-energy system and participates in an asynchronous negotiation protocol without any central coordinator. Three decentralized trading strategies are implemented, prioritizing distance, price, or a combination of both when selecting trading partners. For benchmarking performance purpose, a centralized global optimization model is developed with two objective functions: minimization of total system cost and minimization of total exchanged energy. Both centralized and decentralized models share the same mathematical constraints, and are driven by 24-hour forecasts of demand, generation, and P2P prices obtained from supervised LSTM-based time series models. Uncertainty in PV generation and demand forecast is quantified through Monte Carlo simulations. The framework is applied to a real-world case study involving 12 interconnected buildings, exchanging five energy vectors: electricity, heat, cold, gas, and biomass. Results show that the decentralized optimization matches the centralized benchmark in terms of energy efficiency and external economic dependence within 0.7%–7%, while exhibiting superior scalability as the number of peers increases. The findings validate decentralized multivectorial P2P energy systems as a viable and scalable alternative for future community-scale energy markets.
向可持续和分散的能源系统过渡正在推动对能够在社区规模上协调多种能源载体的先进市场机制的需求。本文提出了一种新的多向量去中心化点对点(P2P)能源交易框架,能够共同管理消费、生成、存储和跨向量转换。建立了一个完全去中心化的优化模型,该模型中各节点自主优化其局部多能量系统,参与异步协商协议,无需任何中心协调器。三种分散的交易策略被实施,在选择交易伙伴时优先考虑距离、价格或两者的组合。以性能标杆为目的,建立了以系统总成本和总交换能量最小为目标函数的集中式全局优化模型。集中式和分散式模型共享相同的数学约束,并由24小时的需求、发电量和P2P价格预测驱动,这些预测来自基于监督lstm的时间序列模型。通过蒙特卡罗模拟对光伏发电和需求预测的不确定性进行了量化。该框架应用于一个现实世界的案例研究,涉及12个相互连接的建筑,交换五种能源载体:电、热、冷、气和生物质。结果表明,去中心化优化在能源效率和外部经济依存度方面与中心化基准在0.7% ~ 7%的范围内匹配,且随着节点数量的增加呈现出优越的可扩展性。研究结果证实,分散的多向量P2P能源系统是未来社区规模能源市场的可行和可扩展的替代方案。
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引用次数: 0
Short-term peak shaving model for a wind-solar-pumped hydropower storage system fully using storage flexibility by dynamic fuzzy clustering algorithm 利用动态模糊聚类算法建立充分利用储能灵活性的风光光能抽水蓄能系统短期调峰模型
IF 7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.seta.2025.104778
Shengli Liao , Xiaoyan Wu , Benxi Liu , Chuntian Cheng , Shushan Li
The short-term scheduling of wind-solar-pumped hydropower storage systems (WSPHSSs) greatly reduces the renewable energy curtailment and enhances the peak shaving capacity of the power grid, leveraging the bidirectional regulation capability of large-scale pumped hydropower storage (PHS). However, the frequent fluctuations of renewables and the complex operational constraints of PHS pose significant challenges for optimal dispatch. Therefore, a WSPHSS short-term peak shaving model based on the peak shaving and valley filling effects of PHS is constructed. Firstly, to address the uncertainty of wind and solar (WS) power, multiple scenarios encompassing historical patterns are generated using the Monte Carlo algorithm (MCA), while probability distance reduction (PDR) is employed to select a set of representative scenarios. Secondly, to handle the complex operational modes and constraints of PHS, the dynamic fuzzy clustering algorithm (DFCA) is adopted to identify the peak-valley characteristics of the load profile. Finally, an improved genetic algorithm (GA) is proposed, which incorporates the velocity update mechanism of particle swarm optimization (PSO) and features dynamic crossover and mutation operations, enhancing solution efficiency and accuracy. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed model significantly reduces the load variance, achieving reduction rates of 86.7% during the flood season and 99.5% during the dry season, which confirms the excellent peak-shaving effect of PHS.
风能-太阳能抽水蓄能系统的短期调度大大减少了可再生能源弃电,提高了电网的调峰能力,充分发挥了大型抽水蓄能系统的双向调节能力。然而,可再生能源的频繁波动和小灵通复杂的运行约束对优化调度构成了重大挑战。基于此,构建了基于小PHS调峰和填谷效应的WSPHSS短期调峰模型。首先,为了解决风能和太阳能(WS)电力的不确定性,采用蒙特卡罗算法(MCA)生成包含历史模式的多个场景,并采用概率距离缩减(PDR)选择一组具有代表性的场景。其次,针对小灵通系统复杂的运行模式和约束条件,采用动态模糊聚类算法(DFCA)识别负载谱峰谷特征;最后,提出了一种改进的遗传算法(GA),该算法结合粒子群优化(PSO)的速度更新机制,并具有动态交叉和变异操作,提高了求解效率和精度。实例研究表明,该模型显著降低了负荷变化,汛期和枯水期分别减少了86.7%和99.5%的负荷变化,证实了小水电具有良好的调峰效果。
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引用次数: 0
Ammonia-Driven energy Decarbonization: A Narrative review based on National Techno-Economic analysis 氨驱动能源脱碳:基于国家技术经济分析的叙事回顾
IF 7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-12-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.seta.2025.104767
Xi Zhuo Jiang , Shaoqiu Ji , Jing Wang , Fan Liu , Zhijun Zhang , Yuanhua Xie , Jin Han , Kai H. Luo
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, primarily from the energy sector, drive global climate change. Ammonia, a carbon-free energy carrier, offers significant potential for reducing emissions in China—the world’s largest ammonia producer and second-largest carbon emitter. This study evaluates opportunities and challenges for China’s ammonia economy by analyzing energy sources, ammonia production capacity, and consumption. Blue and green ammonia can mitigate CO2 emissions, while brown ammonia may increase them. Two perspectives are explored: (1) Using excess green ammonia could reduce emissions by ∼ 10 Mt CO2e annually (∼1% of China’s total); (2) Full replacement of fossil fuels with green ammonia in key sectors could cut emissions by ∼ 3800 Mt (38 %). The advantages and feasibility of ammonia as an energy vector are discussed, alongside techno-economic comparisons with hydrogen and fossil fuels. Technology readiness levels for ammonia synthesis are assessed to highlight current progress and future trends. This study provides actionable insights for policymakers and stakeholders.
二氧化碳(CO2)排放,主要来自能源部门,推动了全球气候变化。氨作为一种无碳能源载体,为中国这个世界上最大的氨生产国和第二大碳排放国的减排提供了巨大的潜力。本研究通过分析能源来源、氨生产能力和消耗量来评估中国氨经济的机遇和挑战。蓝色和绿色氨可以减少二氧化碳的排放,而棕色氨可能会增加二氧化碳的排放。本文探讨了两个方面:(1)使用过量的绿氨每年可减少约1000万吨二氧化碳当量的排放(约占中国总量的1%);(2)在关键部门用绿色氨全面替代化石燃料可减少排放约3800亿吨(38%)。讨论了氨作为能源载体的优势和可行性,并与氢和化石燃料进行了技术经济比较。评估氨合成的技术准备水平,以突出当前进展和未来趋势。本研究为政策制定者和利益相关者提供了可操作的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Life cycle assessment of hydrochar production from sugar beet pulp: analyzing post-drying techniques 甜菜纸浆生产碳氢化合物的生命周期评价:后干燥技术分析
IF 7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-12-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.seta.2025.104774
Hursit Degirmenci, Onder Altuntas
The consumption of fossil fuels is continuously increasing. Industries are poised to shift their practices due to reliance on these fuels and increasing energy costs. Sugar beet plays a crucial role in the agricultural industry, yielding substantial by-products during the sugar production process. The processes of drying and pelleting sugar beet pulp (SBP), a significant by-product utilized as animal feed, currently unsustainable because of elevated energy consumption. This study analyzed the sustainability of various drying techniques for the hydrothermal carbonization (HTC) conversion of SBP into hydrochar, as well as its application as an energy source in conjunction with coal post-conversion, utilizing life cycle analysis (LCA). The drying techniques examined in the LCA include, in sequence: natural, solar, freezing, and oven drying methods. The study reveals several notable findings: Scenario 3 (Freeze Drying) demonstrates the greatest overall environmental impact, markedly exceeding that of the other scenarios. Scenario 4 (Oven Drying) demonstrates greater environmental burdens in comparison to Scenario 1 (Natural Drying) and Scenario 2 (Solar Drying), which exhibit markedly lower impacts.
化石燃料的消费在不断增加。由于对这些燃料的依赖和能源成本的增加,工业正准备改变他们的做法。甜菜在农业生产中起着至关重要的作用,在制糖过程中产生大量的副产品。作为动物饲料的重要副产品,甜菜果肉(SBP)的干燥和制粒过程目前因能源消耗增加而不可持续。本研究利用生命周期分析(LCA)分析了水热炭化(HTC)将SBP转化为碳氢化合物的各种干燥技术的可持续性,以及其与煤转化后结合作为能源的应用。在LCA中考察的干燥技术依次包括:自然干燥法、太阳能干燥法、冷冻干燥法和烘箱干燥法。该研究揭示了几个值得注意的发现:情景3(冷冻干燥)显示出最大的整体环境影响,明显超过其他情景。与情景1(自然干燥)和情景2(太阳能干燥)相比,情景4(烘箱干燥)表现出更大的环境负担,而情景1(自然干燥)和情景2(太阳能干燥)表现出明显较小的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Extreme weather and cascading photovoltaic power vulnerabilities under climate change 气候变化下的极端天气与级联光伏发电脆弱性
IF 7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-12-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.seta.2025.104776
Paul Adigun , Dairaku Koji , Akinwale T. Ogunrinde , Xian Xue , Precious Ebiendele
Extreme weather increasingly threatens the reliability of photovoltaic (PV) systems as global solar deployment expands, yet compound climatic interactions remain poorly understood. This study decomposes cascading PV vulnerabilities using multimodel ensemble projections from CMIP6 under three SSPs (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). We isolate thermal (ΔT), radiative (ΔRSDS), and atmospheric opacity effects—arising from heat extremes (T90), low irradiance (I10), and doubled dust loading on three PV performance indicators: low-output frequency (PV10), event persistence (PV10N), and maximum duration (PV10D). Results show strong regional heterogeneity, with PV10 increases exceeding 90 % across South Asia, North and Central Africa, driven by heat–radiative extremes. PV10N rises by up to 2.7 events annually, while PV10D lengthens by more than 4.5 days under high-emission conditions. Thermal effects cause 25–33 % reductions in PVP output in mid-latitudes, whereas doubled dust amplifies PV10 by 45 % and PV10D by up to 2.7 days. Hotspotsparticularly the Arabian Peninsula (10.5× increase in duration) and Western Africa (5.5× increase in frequency)—highlight severe regional risks. Under SSP5-8.5, aerosol radiative interactions reduce mean PVP output by 5–15 W/m2, while enhanced dust suppresses it by up to 25 W/m2. Although mean PVP may rise slightly under SSP1-2.6, extreme-event variability (+60–90 %) undermines reliability, emphasizing the need for climate-resilient solar infrastructure.
随着全球太阳能部署的扩大,极端天气日益威胁光伏(PV)系统的可靠性,但复合气候相互作用仍然知之甚少。本研究利用CMIP6在三个ssp (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5)下的多模型集合预测分解级联PV漏洞。我们分离了热(ΔT)、辐射(ΔRSDS)和大气不透明度效应——由极端高温(T90)、低辐照度(I10)和三种PV性能指标(低输出频率(PV10)、事件持续时间(PV10N)和最长持续时间(PV10D)引起的大气不透明度效应。结果显示出强烈的区域异质性,在极端热辐射的驱动下,南亚、北非和中非的PV10增幅超过90%。PV10N每年最多增加2.7个事件,而PV10D在高排放条件下延长4.5天以上。在中纬度地区,热效应会导致PVP产量减少25 - 33%,而加倍的灰尘会使PV10增加45%,PV10D增加2.7天。热点地区,特别是阿拉伯半岛(持续时间增加10.5倍)和西非(频率增加5.5倍),突出了严重的区域风险。在SSP5-8.5下,气溶胶辐射相互作用使PVP的平均输出减少了5-15 W/m2,而增强的粉尘使PVP的平均输出减少了25 W/m2。尽管平均PVP可能在SSP1-2.6下略有上升,但极端事件变异性(+60 - 90%)破坏了可靠性,强调了对气候适应性太阳能基础设施的需求。
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引用次数: 0
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Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments
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