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A novel probabilistic modeling for multilateral random attacks in cyber‐physical system reliability analysis 网络物理系统可靠性分析中多边随机攻击的新型概率模型
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-03-21 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3533
Jiayue Huang, Jianfeng Yang, Zhoutao Zheng, Zhengxia Qiu
Cyber‐Physical Systems (CPS) are at the forefront of the intersection between information technology and physical operations, revolutionizing industries such as communication, automation, control, and intelligent transportation. However, evaluating the reliability of CPS, especially in the presence of multilateral random attacks, poses a complex challenge. This paper introduces an inventive probabilistic modeling approach to enhance the analysis of CPS reliability under the influence of multilateral random attacks. We provide an overview of fundamental CPS concepts and their significant role in modern society, followed by a comprehensive exploration of multilateral random attacks. Our novel probabilistic modeling approach is presented as a means to improve the accuracy and robustness of CPS reliability assessments when faced with multilateral random attacks. Numerical experiments and simulations validate the effectiveness of our innovative approach, emphasizing its potential to fortify the reliability of Cyber‐Physical Systems.
网络物理系统(CPS)处于信息技术与物理操作交叉的最前沿,为通信、自动化、控制和智能交通等行业带来了革命性的变化。然而,评估 CPS 的可靠性,尤其是在存在多边随机攻击的情况下,是一项复杂的挑战。本文介绍了一种创造性的概率建模方法,以加强对多边随机攻击影响下 CPS 可靠性的分析。我们概述了 CPS 的基本概念及其在现代社会中的重要作用,然后全面探讨了多边随机攻击。我们提出了新颖的概率建模方法,以此来提高面对多边随机攻击时 CPS 可靠性评估的准确性和稳健性。数值实验和模拟验证了我们创新方法的有效性,强调了它在加强网络物理系统可靠性方面的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Zone‐based failure risk assessment of fatigue crack growth caused by initial defects in powder turbine disc 对粉末涡轮盘初始缺陷导致的疲劳裂纹增长进行基于区域的失效风险评估
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-03-21 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3542
Rongqiao Wang, Weihan Kong, Guanjie Cao, Xi Liu, Jianxing Mao, Haihe Sun, Dianyin Hu
In this research, A zone‐based failure risk assessment (FRA) method of fatigue crack growth (FCG) caused by initial defects in the FGH96 alloy turbine disc is developed. Firstly, the initial defects distribution in the FGH96 alloy turbine disc is calculated based on the defect data. Subsequently, a probabilistic short FCG life model is established, taking into account the dispersion in grain size. Meanwhile, a probabilistic long FCG life model is established, incorporating the life dispersion factor. To calculate the Stress Intensity Factor (SIF) at any position of the disc, the general weight function method and the rectangular plate model are established. Finally, the zoning process is established, enabling a FRA that considers the FCG due to initial defects. The results indicate that the number of cycles corresponding to a 0.13% failure probability of the turbine disc is 7150, and the percentage of failures in each zone is analyzed.
本研究针对 FGH96 合金涡轮盘初始缺陷引起的疲劳裂纹增长(FCG),开发了一种基于区域的失效风险评估(FRA)方法。首先,根据缺陷数据计算 FGH96 合金涡轮盘的初始缺陷分布。随后,考虑到晶粒尺寸的分散性,建立了短FCG寿命概率模型。同时,结合寿命分散因素,建立了FCG长寿命概率模型。为了计算圆盘任意位置的应力强度因子(SIF),建立了一般权重函数法和矩形板模型。最后,建立了分区过程,使 FRA 能够考虑初始缺陷导致的 FCG。结果表明,对应于涡轮盘 0.13% 故障概率的循环次数为 7150 次,并分析了每个区域的故障百分比。
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引用次数: 0
A variable-speed-condition fault diagnosis method for crankshaft bearing in the RV reducer with WSO-VMD and ResNet-SWIN 利用 WSO-VMD 和 ResNet-SWIN 的 RV 减速器曲轴轴承变速条件故障诊断方法
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-03-20 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3538
Guangqi Qiu, Yu Nie, Yulong Peng, Peng Huang, Junjie Chen, Yingkui Gu
Due to the noise interference and the weak characterization ability of the fault vibration signal of rotation vector (RV) reducer crankshaft bearing, it is difficult to obtain satisfactory results for the available fault diagnosis methods. For that, this paper proposes a variable-speed-condition fault diagnosis method with WSO-VMD and ResNet-SWIN. A signal reconstruction method with WSO-VMD was carried out, Firstly, the performance of VMD algorithm is improved by using war strategy optimization algorithm to select parameters adaptively. Then the signal is reconstructed considering the fault characteristic frequency, so as to realize the noise reduction of the signal. By using the residual network module and attention mechanism to replace the first stage of the original SWIN model, a novel ResNet-SWIN fault diagnosis model is established to enhance the feature extraction ability for the weak signal. The experiments with the constant-operating-condition and the variable-operating-condition are carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that, whether at variable-speed or constant-speed conditions, WSO algorithm has been proven to be the fastest convergence speed compared with WOA, SSA, and NGO optimization algorithms, and by the signal reconstruction with WSO-VMD, the variance evaluation indicator of the reconstructed signal has 36%, 21%, 46%, and 40%, respectively. ResNet-SWIN model has achieved the optimal diagnosis accuracy compared with SWIN, VIT, and CNN-SVM models in both variable-speed and constant-speed conditions.
由于旋转矢量(RV)减速机曲轴轴承故障振动信号的噪声干扰和表征能力较弱,现有的故障诊断方法很难获得令人满意的结果。为此,本文提出了一种采用 WSO-VMD 和 ResNet-SWIN 的变速条件故障诊断方法。首先,利用战争策略优化算法自适应选择参数,提高了 VMD 算法的性能。然后考虑故障特征频率对信号进行重构,从而实现信号降噪。利用残差网络模块和注意力机制替代原有 SWIN 模型的第一阶段,建立了新型 ResNet-SWIN 故障诊断模型,增强了对微弱信号的特征提取能力。为了验证所提方法的有效性,分别在恒定运行条件和可变运行条件下进行了实验。结果表明,无论是在变速还是恒速条件下,WSO 算法与 WOA、SSA 和 NGO 优化算法相比,收敛速度都是最快的,用 WSO-VMD 进行信号重构,重构信号的方差评价指标分别为 36%、21%、46% 和 40%。与 SWIN、VIT 和 CNN-SVM 模型相比,ResNet-SWIN 模型在变速和恒速条件下都达到了最佳诊断精度。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic modeling and reliability analysis of satellite antenna deployment mechanism based on parameter uncertainty 基于参数不确定性的卫星天线部署机制动态建模与可靠性分析
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-03-19 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3534
Ke Wang, Hua‐Ming Qian, Jinhua Mi, Tianlong Xu, Hong‐Zhong Huang
This study delves into the factors that affect the reliability of satellite antenna deployment mechanisms. It employs the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K‐S) test to quantify uncertainty characteristics, leading to the acquisition of pertinent stochastic parameters. Subsequently, three‐dimensional models and finite element models of the satellite antenna deployment mechanism are established using SOLIDWORKS and ANSYS software. Modal distribution, harmonic response analysis, random vibration analysis, and deployment process simulation are conducted. Parameterized modeling of the deployment mechanism's dynamics simulation process is performed, taking into consideration parameter uncertainty. Finally, a Kriging surrogate model is utilized to formulate an approximate expression between the factors influencing the reliability of the antenna deployment mechanism and its dynamic response. Based on the general stress‐strength interference theory, a reliability analysis model is constructed. Combined with active learning algorithms, this approach achieves efficient and precise calculations of the reliability of the satellite antenna deployment mechanism.
本研究探讨了影响卫星天线部署机制可靠性的因素。它采用 Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) 检验来量化不确定性特征,从而获得相关的随机参数。随后,使用 SOLIDWORKS 和 ANSYS 软件建立了卫星天线部署机制的三维模型和有限元模型。进行了模态分布、谐波响应分析、随机振动分析和部署过程仿真。考虑到参数的不确定性,对部署机构的动态模拟过程进行了参数化建模。最后,利用 Kriging 代理模型计算出影响天线部署机构可靠性的因素与其动态响应之间的近似表达式。基于一般应力-强度干扰理论,构建了可靠性分析模型。结合主动学习算法,该方法实现了对卫星天线部署机制可靠性的高效和精确计算。
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引用次数: 0
Bayesian analysis of optimal burn-in policy for heterogeneous components with minimal repair 以贝叶斯方法分析具有最小修复功能的异构组件的最佳预烧策略
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-03-19 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3535
Xiaoliang Ling, Ruijie Yin, Ping Li
This study develops a Bayesian method to analyze optimal burn-in policy for heterogeneous components with minimal repair. We use the non-homogeneous Poisson processes with different power law intensity functions to model the minimal repair processes for heterogeneous components. Since the component from the weak subpopulation may fail more frequently, the total number of minimal repairs can be used for establishing a screening rule. By screening, we can decide whether the component after burn-in should be eliminated or not. Considering the uncertainty of model parameters, we generate a minimally repaired data set of components by simulation. Then, we obtain the model parameters estimators by using Bayesian method combined with the existing data. We further analyze and get the optimal burn-in settings under cost and performance optimization model. A numerical example is used to verify the effectiveness of the Bayesian method.
本研究开发了一种贝叶斯方法,用于分析具有最小修复功能的异构组件的最佳预烧策略。我们使用具有不同幂律强度函数的非均质泊松过程来模拟异构组件的最小修复过程。由于来自弱亚群的组件可能会更频繁地出现故障,因此可以使用最小修复的总次数来建立筛选规则。通过筛选,我们可以决定是否淘汰烧损后的组件。考虑到模型参数的不确定性,我们通过模拟生成一组最小修复的组件数据。然后,我们利用贝叶斯方法结合现有数据获得模型参数估计值。我们进一步分析并得到成本和性能优化模型下的最佳预烧设置。通过一个数值实例验证了贝叶斯方法的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Reliability assessment models for competing failure processes with two types of correlative thresholds 具有两类相关阈值的竞争性故障过程的可靠性评估模型
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-03-19 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3529
Qingbiao Song, Jiayin Tang, Honglei Wei, Yong Li
The two dependent competing risks are soft failure due to aging degradation and fragmentation caused by shocks and hard failure due to spring breakage caused by the same shock process. Considering the complexity of the product itself and the instability of the working environment, this study proposed a generalized reliability model for systems experiencing dependent competing failure processes (DCFPs) of degradation and random shocks, which considered two kinds of DCFP: (1) shock process could affect soft failure thresholds; (2) degradation process could affect hard failure thresholds. In case (1), we considered the effect that a cumulative number of shocks above a certain magnitude could have on the change in the soft failure threshold. In case (2), we considered not only the shock process's impact on the soft failure threshold but also the total degradation (including continuous degradation and sudden degradation caused by shock) on the hard failure threshold. The model captures the features that the shocks experienced by the system affect the degradation process, accelerating the system degradation and causing soft failures; the degradation process of the system affects the shock process, making the system more susceptible to failure from external shocks. Finally, an example using micro‐electro‐mechanical systems devices illustrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach with sensitivity analysis.
这两种依存竞争风险是由冲击引起的老化退化和碎裂导致的软失效和由相同冲击过程导致的弹簧断裂导致的硬失效。考虑到产品本身的复杂性和工作环境的不稳定性,本研究提出了一个广义的可靠性模型,适用于经历降解和随机冲击的依赖竞争失效过程(DCFP)的系统,该模型考虑了两种DCFP:(1)冲击过程可能影响软失效阈值;(2)降解过程可能影响硬失效阈值。在第(1)种情况下,我们考虑的是累计次数超过一定程度的冲击对软失效阈值变化的影响。在情况(2)中,我们不仅考虑了冲击过程对软失效阈值的影响,还考虑了总退化(包括持续退化和冲击引起的突然退化)对硬失效阈值的影响。该模型抓住了以下特点:系统所经历的冲击会影响退化过程,加速系统退化并导致软失效;系统的退化过程会影响冲击过程,使系统更容易受到外部冲击而失效。最后,以微型机电系统设备为例,通过敏感性分析说明了所提方法的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Failure prediction of mechanical system based on meta-action 基于元动作的机械系统故障预测
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-03-19 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3537
Yan Ran, Jingjie Chen, Nafis Jawyad Sagor, Genbao Zhang
Highly reliable mechanical systems can lead to significant losses in the event of failure, and the lack of comprehensive failure data presents challenges for developing techniques such as critical part identification and failure prediction. In light of this, this paper proposes a meta-action-based fault prediction method that effectively addresses the issue of limited fault data. Initially, the mechanical system is decomposed utilizing the “Function-Motion-Action” (FMA) methodology to derive individual meta-action units (MAUs). Subsequently, the limited sample of fault data from the mechanical system is combined with processed expert knowledge to construct the corresponding fault propagation-directed graph. Furthermore, the key MAUs are determined by applying the Decision–Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method. Last, the degradation data of the key MAUs is acquired by monitoring them, and a non-homogeneous discrete grey model (DNGM) integrated with an improved BP neural network is proposed to facilitate the fault prediction of MAUs. Using an industrial robot as a case study, the prediction results demonstrate the superiority of the method proposed in this paper over a single gray model and neural network, thereby providing a reliable prediction approach for anticipating the future trends of data-deficient mechanical systems.
高可靠性的机械系统一旦发生故障就会造成重大损失,而缺乏全面的故障数据给关键部件识别和故障预测等技术的开发带来了挑战。有鉴于此,本文提出了一种基于元动作的故障预测方法,可有效解决故障数据有限的问题。首先,利用 "功能-运动-动作"(FMA)方法对机械系统进行分解,从而得出各个元动作单元(MAU)。随后,将来自机械系统的有限故障数据样本与经过处理的专家知识相结合,构建相应的故障传播导向图。此外,通过应用决策试验和评估实验室(DEMATEL)方法确定关键 MAU。最后,通过监测关键 MAU 获取其退化数据,并提出了一种与改进型 BP 神经网络相结合的非均质离散灰色模型(DNGM),以促进 MAU 的故障预测。以工业机器人为例,预测结果表明本文提出的方法优于单一灰色模型和神经网络,从而为预测缺乏数据的机械系统的未来趋势提供了一种可靠的预测方法。
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of safety climate perception of maintenance workers during major overhauls, outages, shutdowns or turnarounds (MoOSTs) 评估维护工人在大修、停工、停产或周转期间(MoOSTs)对安全环境的看法
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-03-19 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3532
Akilu Yunusa‐Kaltungo, Srija Ray, Shaikha AlSanad, Idowu Sokunbi, Patrick Manu, Clara Man Cheung, Saeed Reza Mohandes
Maintenance activities are used to sustain the reliability of physical industrial assets. However, studies indicate that some of the most devastating industrial accidents are attributable to poor safety perceptions of maintenance workers, especially during major overhauls, outages, shutdowns or turnarounds (MoOSTs). Typical MoOSTs involve the harmonisation of regular maintenance endeavours on a large scale, which in turn heighten risks of accidents and costs. Furthermore, MoOSTs are performed over short durations thereby necessitating parallel high‐risk activities by different organisations that have different perceptions of safety and possess different safety cultures. Understanding safety climate can immensely benefit MoOSTs organisations by improving the understanding of attitudes and perceptions that alleviate workplace incidents. This study aimed to establish safety climate that would boost safety culture and positively impact perceived safety performance during MoOSTs. Safety climate questionnaire survey was deployed to MoOSTs workers of leading cement plants in Nigeria. Through exploratory factor analysis, three underlying safety climate factors were identified, which helped to determine that factors such as ‛training and learning from incidents’, ‛commitment of senior management towards ensuring safety and its protocol development process’ and ‛effectiveness of incident reporting systems during MoOSTs’ were significant predictors of workers’ perceptions of safety performance. The findings also pointed out that the inter‐relationship between perceived safety performance, MoOSTs safety training and organisational commitment were positively correlated.
维护活动用于维持有形工业资产的可靠性。然而,研究表明,一些最具破坏性的工业事故是由于维护工人的安全意识薄弱造成的,尤其是在大修、停工、停产或转产(MoOSTs)期间。典型的大修、停工、停产或转产涉及到大规模定期维护工作的协调,这反过来又增加了事故风险和成本。此外,停机检修的持续时间很短,因此需要不同的组织机构同时开展高风险活动,而这些组织机构对安全有不同的认识,并拥有不同的安全文化。对安全氛围的了解可以提高对缓解工作场所事故的态度和观念的认识,从而使社会变革管理组织受益匪浅。本研究旨在建立安全氛围,以促进安全文化,并对社会变革管理计划期间的安全绩效产生积极影响。对尼日利亚主要水泥厂的 MoOSTs 工人进行了安全氛围问卷调查。通过探索性因素分析,确定了三个基本的安全氛围因素,有助于确定 "培训和事故学习"、"高级管理层对确保安全及其规程制定过程的承诺 "和 "MoOSTs 期间事故报告系统的有效性 "等因素是工人对安全绩效看法的重要预测因素。研究结果还指出,安全绩效感知、社会变革管理计划安全培训和组织承诺之间的相互关系呈正相关。
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引用次数: 0
Web service reliability and scalability determination using optimized depth wise separable convolutional neural network 利用优化的深度可分离卷积神经网络确定网络服务的可靠性和可扩展性
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-03-16 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3530
Gokulakrishnan Dhakshnamoorthy, Jeyabal Sridhar, Ramakrishnan Ramanathan, Muruga Radha Devi Dharmalingam
Web service composition (WSC), a distributed architecture, creates new services atop existing ones. Ensuring trust and assessing performance and dependability in online services coordination is essential. In this paper, “Web Service Reliability and Scalability Determination Using Depth Wise Separable Convolutional Neural Network” (WSRS‐DWSCNN) is proposed to assess the trustworthiness of online service compositions, particularly focusing on performance and dependability. This work addresses the need to predict the reliability and scalability of Business Process Execution Language (BPEL) composite web services. The proposed approach transforms the BPEL specification into a Depth Wise Separable Convolutional Neural Network (DWSCNN) and annotates it with probabilistic properties for prediction. The DWSCNN model classifies the outcomes as correct or incorrect, and to enhances the prediction of web service composition scalability and reliability, we optimize the DWSCNN's weight parameters using the Adolescent Identity Search Algorithm (AISA). The proposed technique is activated in Python and its efficacy is analyzed under some metrics, such as reliability, scalability, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, precision, F‐measure. The proposed method provides 12.36%, 45.39%, and 25.97% better reliability, 41.39%, 11.39%, 34.16% better accuracy compared with existing methods like, Web service reliability prediction depending on machine learning (WSRS‐K‐means), reliability prediction method for multiple state cloud/edge‐basis network utilizing deep neural network (WSRS‐DNN‐BO), and improving reliability of mobile social cloud computing utilizing machine learning in content addressable network (WSRS‐CAN), respectively.
网络服务组合(WSC)是一种分布式架构,它在现有服务的基础上创建新的服务。在在线服务协调中,确保信任、评估性能和可靠性至关重要。本文提出了 "利用深度可分离卷积神经网络确定网络服务可靠性和可扩展性"(WSRS-DWSCNN),以评估在线服务组合的可信度,特别是性能和可靠性。这项工作满足了预测业务流程执行语言(BPEL)复合网络服务的可靠性和可扩展性的需求。所提出的方法将 BPEL 规范转化为深度可分离卷积神经网络(DWSCNN),并为其标注用于预测的概率属性。DWSCNN 模型将结果分类为正确或不正确,为了提高网络服务组合的可扩展性和可靠性,我们使用青少年身份搜索算法(AISA)优化了 DWSCNN 的权重参数。我们在 Python 中激活了所提出的技术,并根据可靠性、可扩展性、准确性、灵敏度、特异性、精确度、F-度量等指标对其功效进行了分析。与基于机器学习的网络服务可靠性预测(WSRS-K-means)、利用深度神经网络的多状态云/边缘基础网络可靠性预测方法(WSRS-DNN-BO)和在内容可寻址网络中利用机器学习提高移动社交云计算可靠性(WSRS-CAN)等现有方法相比,所提方法的可靠性分别提高了12.36%、45.39%和25.97%,准确性分别提高了41.39%、11.39%和34.16%。
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引用次数: 0
Real‐time assessment on health state for bearing based on parallel encoder‐decoder observer 基于并行编码器-解码器观测器的轴承健康状态实时评估
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-03-14 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3531
Kunpeng Li, Jinhua Mi, Zhiguo Wang, Shengjie Yin, Libing Bai, Gen Qiu
Bearings are foundational supporting components in diverse mechanical systems, essential for the reliable operation of these systems through real‐time monitoring and precise health state assessment. However, vibration signals from bearings in practical equipment often contain excessive noise and redundant information, complicating health state assessment. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a neural network‐based method named parallel encoder‐decoder (PED). This method features a parallel architecture that combines the long short‐term memory network and the temporal convolutional network for the encoder, along with a self‐attention module for the decoder. PED is adept at learning the temporal representations hidden in original signals and filtering vibration signals to remove noise and redundant information. Additionally, a multi‐objective loss function is developed to enhance the prediction results. A normalized Mahalanobis distance‐based metric is then employed to compare residual signals during bearing operation with those under normal conditions. The case study evaluates the PED observer's proficiency in accurately predicting vibration signals and assessing the performance of health indicator curves, demonstrating the proposed PED observer's superiority over conventional networks.
轴承是各种机械系统的基础支撑部件,通过实时监测和精确的健康状态评估,对这些系统的可靠运行至关重要。然而,实际设备中来自轴承的振动信号往往包含过多噪声和冗余信息,使健康状态评估变得复杂。为了应对这一挑战,本文提出了一种基于神经网络的方法,名为并行编码器-解码器(PED)。该方法采用并行架构,编码器结合了长短期记忆网络和时序卷积网络,解码器结合了自我注意模块。PED 擅长学习隐藏在原始信号中的时间表示,并对振动信号进行过滤,以去除噪声和冗余信息。此外,还开发了一种多目标损失函数来增强预测结果。然后采用基于归一化 Mahalanobis 距离的度量来比较轴承运行期间的残余信号和正常条件下的残余信号。案例研究评估了 PED 观察器在准确预测振动信号和评估健康指标曲线性能方面的能力,证明了所提出的 PED 观察器优于传统网络。
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引用次数: 0
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Quality and Reliability Engineering International
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