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Software reliability prediction: A machine learning and approximation Bayesian inference approach 软件可靠性预测:机器学习和近似贝叶斯推理方法
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3616
Shahrzad Oveisi, Ali Moeini, Sayeh Mirzaei, Mohammad Ali Farsi
Reliability growth models are commonly categorized into two primary groups: parametric and non‐parametric models. Parametric models, known as Software Reliability Growth Models (SRGM) rely on a set of hypotheses that can potentially affect the accuracy of model predictions, while non‐parametric models (such as neural networks) can predict the model solely based on training data without any assumptions regarding the model itself. In this paper, we propose several methods to enhance prediction accuracy in software reliability context. More specifically, we, on one hand, introduce two gradient‐based techniques for estimating parameters of classical SRGMs. On the other, we propose methods involving LSTM Encoder–Decoder and Bayesian approximation within Langevin Gradient and Variational inference neural networks. To evaluate our proposed models' performance, we compare them with various neural network‐based software reliability models using three real‐world software failure datasets and utilizing the Mean Square Error (MSE) as a model comparison criterion. The experimental results indicate that our proposed non‐parametric models outperform most classical parametric and non‐parametric models.
可靠性增长模型通常分为两大类:参数模型和非参数模型。参数模型,即软件可靠性增长模型(SRGM),依赖于一组可能影响模型预测准确性的假设,而非参数模型(如神经网络)则可以完全根据训练数据预测模型,而无需对模型本身做出任何假设。在本文中,我们提出了几种提高软件可靠性预测准确性的方法。具体来说,一方面,我们介绍了两种基于梯度的技术,用于估计经典 SRGM 的参数。另一方面,我们在朗格文梯度和变量推理神经网络中提出了涉及 LSTM 编码器-解码器和贝叶斯近似的方法。为了评估我们提出的模型的性能,我们使用三个真实世界的软件故障数据集,将它们与各种基于神经网络的软件可靠性模型进行了比较,并使用平均平方误差(MSE)作为模型比较标准。实验结果表明,我们提出的非参数模型优于大多数经典参数和非参数模型。
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引用次数: 0
A new kid on the block: The stratification pattern for space‐filling, with dimension by weight tables 新来的孩子空间填充的分层模式,按权重表划分维度
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3627
Ulrike Grömping
Designs for computer experiments in quantitative factors use columns with many levels. Filling the experimental space is their most important property, and there are many criteria that assess aspects of space‐filling. Recently, Tian and Xu proposed a stratification pattern for assessing the stratification‐related space‐filling properties of designs for quantitative experimental variables whose number of levels is a power of a – usually small – integer. Such designs have been named GSOAs, in generalization of the earlier proposal of strong – or stratum – orthogonal arrays (SOAs). Latin hypercube designs (LHDs) with a suitable number of levels are special cases of GSOAs. Tian and Xu proposed to use the stratification pattern as a means to ranking (G)SOAs. They reported a small simulation study in which arrays that fared well in that ranking performed well in predicting an unknown function. Shi and Xu refined the criterion and also demonstrated success of a design that fares well on their refined criterion. This paper explains the ideas behind the stratification pattern and the related ranking criteria. A practical example and several toy examples aid the illustration. The stratification pattern can be calculated using the R package SOAs, which does not only provide the pattern itself but also provides more detail in a dimension by weight table, in the spirit of the refinement by Shi and Xu.
定量因素的计算机实验设计使用具有多个层次的列。填充实验空间是其最重要的特性,有许多标准可以评估空间填充的各个方面。最近,田(Tian)和徐(Xu)提出了一种分层模式,用于评估与分层相关的定量实验变量设计的空间填充特性。此类设计被命名为 GSOA,是对早先提出的强正交阵列(SOA)或分层正交阵列(SOA)的概括。具有适当层数的拉丁超立方设计(LHD)是 GSOA 的特例。Tian 和 Xu 提议使用分层模式对 (G)SOA 进行排序。他们报告了一项小型模拟研究,结果表明在该排序中表现出色的阵列在预测未知函数时表现出色。Shi 和 Xu 改进了这一标准,并展示了在他们改进的标准中表现良好的设计。本文解释了分层模式和相关排序标准背后的理念。一个实际例子和几个玩具例子有助于说明问题。分层模式可以使用 R 软件包 SOAs 计算,该软件包不仅提供了模式本身,还根据 Shi 和 Xu 所做改进的精神,在按权重划分的维度表中提供了更多细节。
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引用次数: 0
The combined Shewhart–EWMA sign charts 合并的 Shewhart-EWMA 标志图
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-07-21 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3625
Mohammed Kadhim Shanshool, Shashibhushan B. Mahadik, Dadasaheb G. Godase, Michael B. C. Khoo
The Shewhart control chart is a prominent tool for identifying the changes in process parameters that are of large magnitude, however, it has reduced ability to identify the process changes of small magnitudes. On the other hand, an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart is superior to the Shewhart chart in identifying process changes of small magnitudes but it is less proficient than the later chart in identifying changes of large magnitudes. This paper suggests nonparametric combined Shewhart‐EWMA (CSE) charts based on the sign statistic for the process location and process dispersion. The statistical performance measures of these charts are obtained using a Markov chain approach. The numerical comparisons revealed that the performance of a CSE chart lies within the range of the Shewhart sign and EWMA sign charts for identifying a process change of any magnitude. A real‐data example is provided to illustrate the mechanism of the chart.
Shewhart 控制图是识别过程参数大幅变化的重要工具,但它识别小幅过程变化的能力较弱。另一方面,指数加权移动平均(EWMA)控制图在识别幅度较小的过程变化方面优于薛哈特控制图,但在识别幅度较大的变化方面却不如薛哈特控制图。本文提出了基于过程位置和过程分散的符号统计的非参数组合 Shewhart-EWMA (CSE) 控制图。使用马尔科夫链方法获得了这些图表的统计性能指标。数值比较显示,CSE 图表的性能在 Shewhart 符号和 EWMA 符号图表的范围内,可以识别任何程度的流程变化。我们提供了一个真实数据示例来说明图表的机制。
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引用次数: 0
A novel equipment remaining useful life prediction approach considering dynamic maintenance threshold 考虑动态维护阈值的新型设备剩余使用寿命预测方法
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-07-17 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3623
Li'Na Ren, Kangning Li, Xueliang Li, Ziqian Wang
In conventional remaining useful life (RUL) prediction approaches grounded on maintenance, the maintenance threshold is typically established as a stationary value. However, the actual maintenance threshold may exceed its preset value due to the uncertainty of degradation and other factors. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the dynamic maintenance threshold to improve the precision of remaining useful life prediction. By considering the Wiener process, the maintenance threshold error is introduced to reflect the dynamic nature of the maintenance threshold. The influence of maintenance on degradation amount, degradation rate, and degradation path are comprehensively considered to establish a multi‐stage maintenance‐affected degradation process model. The RUL formula of the equipment is derived using the first hitting time (FHT). The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) approach and Bayesian theory are employed to estimate the model's parameters. The proposed approach is validated using simulation data and gyroscope degradation data. The outcomes reveal that the proposed approach can significantly enhance the precision of life prediction for the equipment.
在以维护为基础的传统剩余使用寿命(RUL)预测方法中,维护阈值通常被设定为一个固定值。然而,由于退化的不确定性和其他因素,实际维护阈值可能会超过其预设值。因此,有必要考虑动态维护阈值,以提高剩余使用寿命预测的精度。通过考虑维纳过程,引入维护阈值误差来反映维护阈值的动态性质。综合考虑维护对劣化量、劣化率和劣化路径的影响,建立多阶段维护影响劣化过程模型。利用首次命中时间(FHT)推导出设备的 RUL 公式。采用最大似然估计(MLE)方法和贝叶斯理论来估计模型参数。利用模拟数据和陀螺仪退化数据对提出的方法进行了验证。结果表明,所提出的方法可以显著提高设备寿命预测的精度。
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引用次数: 0
Modelling and inference for a degradation process with partial maintenance effects 具有部分维护效果的退化过程的建模和推论
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-07-13 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3618
Margaux Leroy, Christophe Bérenguer, Laurent Doyen, Olivier Gaudoin
This paper proposes a new way of modelling imperfect maintenance in degradation models, by assuming that maintenance affects only a part of the degradation process. More precisely, the global degradation process is the sum of two dependent Wiener processes with drift. Maintenance has an effect of the ‐type on only one of these processes: it reduces the degradation level of a quantity which is proportional to the amount of degradation of this process accumulated since previous maintenance. Two particular cases of the model are considered: perturbed and partial replacement models. The usual model is also a specific case of this new model. The system is regularly inspected in order to measure the global degradation level. Two observation schemes are considered. In the complete scheme, the degradation levels are measured both between maintenance actions and at maintenance times (just before and just after). In the general scheme, the degradation levels are measured only between maintenance actions. The maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters is studied for both observation schemes in both particular models. The quality of the estimators is assessed through a simulation study.
本文提出了一种在退化模型中模拟不完善维护的新方法,即假设维护只影响退化过程的一部分。更确切地说,整体退化过程是两个具有漂移的维纳过程之和。维护只对其中一个过程产生"-"型影响:它会降低一个量的退化水平,而这个量与该过程自上次维护以来累积的退化量成正比。该模型有两种特殊情况:扰动模型和部分替换模型。通常的模型也是这种新模型的一种特殊情况。对系统进行定期检查,以测量整体退化程度。我们考虑了两种观测方案。在完整方案中,退化水平是在维护行动之间和维护时间(维护前和维护后)测量的。在一般方案中,只在两次维护行动之间测量退化水平。针对这两种观测方案中的两种特定模型,对模型参数的最大似然估计进行了研究。通过模拟研究评估了估计值的质量。
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引用次数: 0
Editorial for the special issue on experimental design for reliability and life testing 可靠性和寿命测试实验设计》特刊编辑
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3620
Rong Pan
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引用次数: 0
Distribution‐free multivariate process monitoring: A rank‐energy statistic‐based approach 无分布多变量过程监控:基于秩能统计的方法
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3619
Niladri Chakraborty, Maxim Finkelstein
In this paper, a multivariate process monitoring scheme based on the rank‐energy statistics is proposed which is suitable for high‐dimensional applications such as sensorless drive diagnosis. The rank‐energy statistic is based on multivariate ranks that is grounded on the measure transportation theory. Univariate ranks could be interpreted as a solution to an optimisation problem involving a given set of observations of size and the set {}. Recently, attaining greater robustness than spatial sign or depth‐based ranks, multivariate ranks are proposed as solutions to such optimisation problem in multivariate settings (measure transportation problem). The proposed multivariate process monitoring scheme based on the rank‐energy statistic, subsequently, attains greater robustness than existing nonparametric multivariate process monitoring methods based on spatial sign or depth‐based ranks. The proposed method is also applicable to high‐dimensional data unlike some of the existing nonparametric multivariate process monitoring methods. A rigorous simulation study demonstrates its effective shift detection ability and other important features. A practical application of the proposed method is demonstrated with the sensorless drive diagnosis case study.
本文提出了一种基于秩能统计的多变量过程监控方案,适用于无传感器驱动诊断等高维应用。秩能统计基于多变量秩,而多变量秩是以度量运输理论为基础的。单变量秩可以解释为一个优化问题的解决方案,该问题涉及一组给定大小的观测数据和集合 {}。与基于空间符号或深度的秩相比,多变量秩具有更强的鲁棒性,因此最近提出了多变量秩,作为多变量环境下此类优化问题(度量运输问题)的解决方案。与现有的基于空间符号或深度等级的非参数多元过程监测方法相比,基于秩能统计量的多元过程监测方案具有更强的鲁棒性。与现有的一些非参数多元过程监测方法不同,所提出的方法还适用于高维数据。严格的模拟研究证明了该方法有效的偏移检测能力和其他重要特征。通过无传感器驱动诊断案例研究,展示了所提方法的实际应用。
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引用次数: 0
Unbiased process capability estimation for autocorrelated data using exhaustive systematic sampling 利用详尽系统抽样对自相关数据进行无偏过程能力估计
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-07-07 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3617
Scott D. Grimshaw, Zhupeng Guo, Tyler Duke
It is well known that process control index estimators are inflated when naively applied to positively autocorrelated data. The autocorrelation is a nuisance and not a feature that is captured in the process capability indices. This paper proposes exhaustive systematic sampling to create a pooled variance estimator that replaces the biased estimator of the process data standard deviation when data are autocorrelated. The proposed method is effective because the observations within a systematic sample are spread out in time and should be less correlated with each other as a result. It is similar to Bayesian thinning as a strategy for reducing the impact of autocorrelation except no observations are dropped. Properties of estimated process control indices are derived using quadratic forms and large sample theory that is nonparametric in the sense no distribution or time series model is assumed. Approximately unbiased estimates can be achieved for sufficiently large systematic sampling interval. The proposed method is compared to the time series method in a simulation study that demonstrates similar performance. The proposed method is applied to two examples that use because the target is not the midpoint of the specification limits and the mean differs from the target.
众所周知,过程控制指数估计值如果被简单地应用于正相关的自相关数据,就会被夸大。自相关是一种干扰,并不是过程能力指数所能捕捉到的特征。本文提出了详尽的系统抽样方法,以创建一个集合方差估计器,在数据自相关时取代有偏差的过程数据标准偏差估计器。所提议的方法之所以有效,是因为系统抽样中的观测值在时间上是分散的,因此相互之间的相关性较低。该方法类似于贝叶斯稀疏法,是一种减少自相关影响的策略,但不会丢弃任何观测值。估计过程控制指数的特性是利用二次形式和大样本理论推导出来的,这种理论是非参数的,即不假定分布或时间序列模型。对于足够大的系统抽样间隔,可以获得近似无偏的估计值。在一项模拟研究中,将所提出的方法与时间序列方法进行了比较,结果表明两者性能相似。由于目标值不是规格限的中点,且平均值与目标值不同,因此提出的方法适用于两个例子。
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引用次数: 0
Degradation index‐based prediction for remaining useful life using multivariate sensor data 利用多变量传感器数据,基于退化指数预测剩余使用寿命
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-07-06 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3615
Wenda Kang, Geurt Jongbloed, Yubin Tian, Piao Chen
The prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) is a critical component of prognostic and health management for industrial systems. In recent decades, there has been a surge of interest in RUL prediction based on degradation data of a well‐defined degradation index (DI). However, in many real‐world applications, the DI may not be readily available and must be constructed from complex source data, rendering many existing methods inapplicable. Motivated by multivariate sensor data from industrial induction motors, this paper proposes a novel prognostic framework that develops a nonlinear DI, serving as an ensemble of representative features, and employs a similarity‐based method for RUL prediction. The proposed framework enables online prediction of RUL by dynamically updating information from the in‐service unit. Simulation studies and a case study on three‐phase industrial induction motors demonstrate that the proposed framework can effectively extract reliability information from various channels and predict RUL with high accuracy.
剩余使用寿命(RUL)预测是工业系统预报和健康管理的重要组成部分。近几十年来,人们对基于定义明确的降解指数(DI)的降解数据进行剩余使用寿命预测的兴趣日益高涨。然而,在许多实际应用中,降解指数可能不是现成的,必须从复杂的源数据中构建,这使得许多现有方法无法应用。受工业感应电机多变量传感器数据的启发,本文提出了一个新颖的预报框架,该框架开发了一个非线性 DI,作为代表性特征的集合,并采用基于相似性的方法进行 RUL 预测。该框架通过动态更新在役机组的信息,实现了 RUL 的在线预测。对三相工业感应电动机的仿真研究和案例研究表明,所提出的框架能有效地从各种渠道提取可靠性信息,并高精度地预测 RUL。
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引用次数: 0
A modular model for reliability analysis model of PMS with multiple K/N subsystems and mixed shocks 具有多个 K/N 子系统和混合冲击的 PMS 可靠性分析模型的模块化模型
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-07-06 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3614
Weijie Wang, Xiangyu Li, Xiaoyan Xiong
In this article, a modular model is proposed for the reliability modeling of phased mission systems (PMSs) with complicated system behaviors. By the modular method, the system is divided into several levels: system, subsystem, and components. At the component level, the shock effect, including self‐degradation, additional wear and damage caused by shocks, is considered and the component reliability is evaluated. Then, the reliability modeling method of the K/N system consisting of multiple K/N subsystems is proposed, by a mathematics reasoning method. The correctness of the proposed method is also verified by a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation procedure. At last, the modular method is applied at the system level, and the reliability of a practical engineering case, the attitude and orbit control system (AOCS), is evaluated for illustration. Meanwhile, the parameter sensitivity analysis is also carried out for implementation.
本文提出了一种模块化模型,用于对具有复杂系统行为的分阶段任务系统(PMS)进行可靠性建模。通过模块化方法,系统被划分为几个层次:系统、子系统和组件。在组件层面,考虑了冲击效应,包括冲击引起的自退化、额外磨损和损坏,并对组件可靠性进行了评估。然后,通过数学推理方法,提出了由多个 K/N 子系统组成的 K/N 系统的可靠性建模方法。还通过蒙特卡罗(MC)模拟程序验证了所提方法的正确性。最后,在系统层面应用了模块化方法,并对实际工程案例--姿态和轨道控制系统(AOCS)的可靠性进行了评估,以资说明。同时,为便于实施,还进行了参数敏感性分析。
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引用次数: 0
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Quality and Reliability Engineering International
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