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A novel reliability analysis approach for multi‐component systems with stochastic dependency and functional relationships 具有随机依赖性和功能关系的多组件系统的新型可靠性分析方法
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-07-27 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3621
Karim Atashgar, Majid Abbasi, Mostafa Khazaee, Mehdi Karbasian
Reliability prediction for complex systems utilizing prognostic methods has attracted increasing attention. Furthermore, achieving accurate reliability predictions for complex systems necessitates considering the interaction between components and the multivariate functional relationship that exists among them. This paper proposes a bi‐level method to evaluate the variability of degradation processes and predictive reliability based on the profile monitoring approach for multicomponent systems. Firstly, a multivariate profile structure is introduced to model the framework of degradation analysis in scenarios where there exists stochastic dependency and a multivariate functional relationship between the degradation processes of components. At the component level, the objective is to evaluate the variability of the degradation process for each component considering the presence of stochastic dependence. For the system level analysis, the proposed approach enables the prediction of degradation variability and system reliability by considering the functional relationships among components, without the need for direct calculation of individual component reliabilities. The performance of the proposed model is evaluated through a numerical study and sensitivity analysis conducted on a multicomponent system with a k‐out‐of‐n structure. The results demonstrate the model's notable flexibility and efficiency.
利用预测方法对复杂系统进行可靠性预测已引起越来越多的关注。此外,要对复杂系统进行准确的可靠性预测,就必须考虑组件之间的相互作用以及它们之间存在的多变量功能关系。本文提出了一种基于多组件系统剖面监测方法的双层方法,用于评估退化过程的可变性和预测可靠性。首先,本文引入了一个多变量剖面结构,以模拟在组件退化过程之间存在随机依赖性和多变量功能关系的情况下进行退化分析的框架。在组件层面,目标是在考虑到存在随机依赖性的情况下,评估每个组件退化过程的可变性。在系统层面的分析中,建议的方法通过考虑组件之间的功能关系来预测退化变异性和系统可靠性,而无需直接计算单个组件的可靠性。通过对具有 k-out-of-n 结构的多组件系统进行数值研究和敏感性分析,对所提出模型的性能进行了评估。结果表明该模型具有显著的灵活性和效率。
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引用次数: 0
Multimode high‐dimensional time series clustering and monitoring for wind turbine SCADA data 风力涡轮机 SCADA 数据的多模式高维时间序列聚类和监测
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3626
Luo Yang, Kaibo Wang, Jie Zhou
The operating process of complex systems usually manifest in multiple distinct operating modes. In the case of a wind turbine, for example, its operating mode is highly influenced by the wind condition, which changes dynamically in natural environment. The SCADA system plays a crucial role in collecting various parameters from wind turbines, facilitating the differentiation, and modeling of distinct operating modes. However, the challenge lies in the excessive dimensionality of variables in SCADA data, making modeling efforts both intricate and inefficient. In this study, we leverage the engineering knowledge on the hierarchical structure of the variables in wind turbine, and propose a novel method to efficiently cluster the data temporally by operating modes. Our methodology involves initially clustering variables according to subsystems and implementing temporal clustering within each subsystem. Subsequently, we introduce a novel graph neural network to extract and concatenate features from all subsystems, enabling the discrimination of the operational mode of the entire system. Finally, we model these features to make predictions of the output power, and the prediction residual can be used for monitoring. Performance evaluations on both numerical experiments and real‐world wind turbine datasets attest to the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed methods.
复杂系统的运行过程通常表现为多种截然不同的运行模式。以风力涡轮机为例,其运行模式受自然环境中动态变化的风况影响很大。SCADA 系统在收集风力涡轮机的各种参数、促进区分和模拟不同运行模式方面发挥着至关重要的作用。然而,SCADA 数据中的变量维度过大,使得建模工作既复杂又低效,这是一个挑战。在本研究中,我们利用有关风力涡轮机变量分层结构的工程知识,提出了一种按运行模式对数据进行有效时间聚类的新方法。我们的方法包括首先根据子系统对变量进行聚类,并在每个子系统内实施时间聚类。随后,我们引入一个新颖的图神经网络,从所有子系统中提取并串联特征,从而对整个系统的运行模式进行判别。最后,我们利用这些特征建模,对输出功率进行预测,预测残差可用于监控。在数值实验和实际风力涡轮机数据集上进行的性能评估证明了所提方法的有效性和优越性。
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引用次数: 0
Software reliability prediction: A machine learning and approximation Bayesian inference approach 软件可靠性预测:机器学习和近似贝叶斯推理方法
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3616
Shahrzad Oveisi, Ali Moeini, Sayeh Mirzaei, Mohammad Ali Farsi
Reliability growth models are commonly categorized into two primary groups: parametric and non‐parametric models. Parametric models, known as Software Reliability Growth Models (SRGM) rely on a set of hypotheses that can potentially affect the accuracy of model predictions, while non‐parametric models (such as neural networks) can predict the model solely based on training data without any assumptions regarding the model itself. In this paper, we propose several methods to enhance prediction accuracy in software reliability context. More specifically, we, on one hand, introduce two gradient‐based techniques for estimating parameters of classical SRGMs. On the other, we propose methods involving LSTM Encoder–Decoder and Bayesian approximation within Langevin Gradient and Variational inference neural networks. To evaluate our proposed models' performance, we compare them with various neural network‐based software reliability models using three real‐world software failure datasets and utilizing the Mean Square Error (MSE) as a model comparison criterion. The experimental results indicate that our proposed non‐parametric models outperform most classical parametric and non‐parametric models.
可靠性增长模型通常分为两大类:参数模型和非参数模型。参数模型,即软件可靠性增长模型(SRGM),依赖于一组可能影响模型预测准确性的假设,而非参数模型(如神经网络)则可以完全根据训练数据预测模型,而无需对模型本身做出任何假设。在本文中,我们提出了几种提高软件可靠性预测准确性的方法。具体来说,一方面,我们介绍了两种基于梯度的技术,用于估计经典 SRGM 的参数。另一方面,我们在朗格文梯度和变量推理神经网络中提出了涉及 LSTM 编码器-解码器和贝叶斯近似的方法。为了评估我们提出的模型的性能,我们使用三个真实世界的软件故障数据集,将它们与各种基于神经网络的软件可靠性模型进行了比较,并使用平均平方误差(MSE)作为模型比较标准。实验结果表明,我们提出的非参数模型优于大多数经典参数和非参数模型。
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引用次数: 0
A new kid on the block: The stratification pattern for space‐filling, with dimension by weight tables 新来的孩子空间填充的分层模式,按权重表划分维度
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3627
Ulrike Grömping
Designs for computer experiments in quantitative factors use columns with many levels. Filling the experimental space is their most important property, and there are many criteria that assess aspects of space‐filling. Recently, Tian and Xu proposed a stratification pattern for assessing the stratification‐related space‐filling properties of designs for quantitative experimental variables whose number of levels is a power of a – usually small – integer. Such designs have been named GSOAs, in generalization of the earlier proposal of strong – or stratum – orthogonal arrays (SOAs). Latin hypercube designs (LHDs) with a suitable number of levels are special cases of GSOAs. Tian and Xu proposed to use the stratification pattern as a means to ranking (G)SOAs. They reported a small simulation study in which arrays that fared well in that ranking performed well in predicting an unknown function. Shi and Xu refined the criterion and also demonstrated success of a design that fares well on their refined criterion. This paper explains the ideas behind the stratification pattern and the related ranking criteria. A practical example and several toy examples aid the illustration. The stratification pattern can be calculated using the R package SOAs, which does not only provide the pattern itself but also provides more detail in a dimension by weight table, in the spirit of the refinement by Shi and Xu.
定量因素的计算机实验设计使用具有多个层次的列。填充实验空间是其最重要的特性,有许多标准可以评估空间填充的各个方面。最近,田(Tian)和徐(Xu)提出了一种分层模式,用于评估与分层相关的定量实验变量设计的空间填充特性。此类设计被命名为 GSOA,是对早先提出的强正交阵列(SOA)或分层正交阵列(SOA)的概括。具有适当层数的拉丁超立方设计(LHD)是 GSOA 的特例。Tian 和 Xu 提议使用分层模式对 (G)SOA 进行排序。他们报告了一项小型模拟研究,结果表明在该排序中表现出色的阵列在预测未知函数时表现出色。Shi 和 Xu 改进了这一标准,并展示了在他们改进的标准中表现良好的设计。本文解释了分层模式和相关排序标准背后的理念。一个实际例子和几个玩具例子有助于说明问题。分层模式可以使用 R 软件包 SOAs 计算,该软件包不仅提供了模式本身,还根据 Shi 和 Xu 所做改进的精神,在按权重划分的维度表中提供了更多细节。
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引用次数: 0
The combined Shewhart–EWMA sign charts 合并的 Shewhart-EWMA 标志图
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-07-21 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3625
Mohammed Kadhim Shanshool, Shashibhushan B. Mahadik, Dadasaheb G. Godase, Michael B. C. Khoo
The Shewhart control chart is a prominent tool for identifying the changes in process parameters that are of large magnitude, however, it has reduced ability to identify the process changes of small magnitudes. On the other hand, an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart is superior to the Shewhart chart in identifying process changes of small magnitudes but it is less proficient than the later chart in identifying changes of large magnitudes. This paper suggests nonparametric combined Shewhart‐EWMA (CSE) charts based on the sign statistic for the process location and process dispersion. The statistical performance measures of these charts are obtained using a Markov chain approach. The numerical comparisons revealed that the performance of a CSE chart lies within the range of the Shewhart sign and EWMA sign charts for identifying a process change of any magnitude. A real‐data example is provided to illustrate the mechanism of the chart.
Shewhart 控制图是识别过程参数大幅变化的重要工具,但它识别小幅过程变化的能力较弱。另一方面,指数加权移动平均(EWMA)控制图在识别幅度较小的过程变化方面优于薛哈特控制图,但在识别幅度较大的变化方面却不如薛哈特控制图。本文提出了基于过程位置和过程分散的符号统计的非参数组合 Shewhart-EWMA (CSE) 控制图。使用马尔科夫链方法获得了这些图表的统计性能指标。数值比较显示,CSE 图表的性能在 Shewhart 符号和 EWMA 符号图表的范围内,可以识别任何程度的流程变化。我们提供了一个真实数据示例来说明图表的机制。
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引用次数: 0
A novel equipment remaining useful life prediction approach considering dynamic maintenance threshold 考虑动态维护阈值的新型设备剩余使用寿命预测方法
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-07-17 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3623
Li'Na Ren, Kangning Li, Xueliang Li, Ziqian Wang
In conventional remaining useful life (RUL) prediction approaches grounded on maintenance, the maintenance threshold is typically established as a stationary value. However, the actual maintenance threshold may exceed its preset value due to the uncertainty of degradation and other factors. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the dynamic maintenance threshold to improve the precision of remaining useful life prediction. By considering the Wiener process, the maintenance threshold error is introduced to reflect the dynamic nature of the maintenance threshold. The influence of maintenance on degradation amount, degradation rate, and degradation path are comprehensively considered to establish a multi‐stage maintenance‐affected degradation process model. The RUL formula of the equipment is derived using the first hitting time (FHT). The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) approach and Bayesian theory are employed to estimate the model's parameters. The proposed approach is validated using simulation data and gyroscope degradation data. The outcomes reveal that the proposed approach can significantly enhance the precision of life prediction for the equipment.
在以维护为基础的传统剩余使用寿命(RUL)预测方法中,维护阈值通常被设定为一个固定值。然而,由于退化的不确定性和其他因素,实际维护阈值可能会超过其预设值。因此,有必要考虑动态维护阈值,以提高剩余使用寿命预测的精度。通过考虑维纳过程,引入维护阈值误差来反映维护阈值的动态性质。综合考虑维护对劣化量、劣化率和劣化路径的影响,建立多阶段维护影响劣化过程模型。利用首次命中时间(FHT)推导出设备的 RUL 公式。采用最大似然估计(MLE)方法和贝叶斯理论来估计模型参数。利用模拟数据和陀螺仪退化数据对提出的方法进行了验证。结果表明,所提出的方法可以显著提高设备寿命预测的精度。
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引用次数: 0
Extended GWMA control charts: A critical evaluation 扩展的 GWMA 控制图:关键评估
IF 2.2 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-07-15 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3624
Abdul Haq, W. Woodall
We demonstrate that the recently introduced triple generally weighted moving average (GWMA) chart and its counterpart, the double GWMA chart, incorporate sub‐optimal weighting patterns that may assign more weight to certain historical data points at the expense of more recent ones. Moreover, these control charts, when compared to the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart, exhibit a substantial computational burden. Our findings underscore that a well‐designed EWMA chart offers superior overall performance in comparison to these control charts.
我们证明,最近推出的三重一般加权移动平均线 (GWMA) 图表及其对应的双重一般加权移动平均线 (GWMA) 图表采用了次优加权模式,可能会对某些历史数据点分配更多权重,而牺牲更多近期数据点。此外,与指数加权移动平均线(EWMA)图表相比,这些控制图表的计算负担较重。我们的研究结果强调,与这些控制图相比,精心设计的 EWMA 图具有更优越的整体性能。
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引用次数: 0
A functional data‐driven method for modeling degradation of waxy lubrication layer 蜡质润滑层降解建模的功能数据驱动法
IF 2.2 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-07-15 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3622
Wenda Kang, Shixiang Li, Yubin Tian, Ying Yin, Heliang Sui, Dianpeng Wang
Wax is a prevalent lubrication material extensively employed in various engineering applications. Understanding the degradation characteristics of the waxy lubrication layer under diverse stress variables and levels is crucial for ensuring system security and reliability. Due to the unclear mechanism governing the degradation of the waxy lubrication layer under different stress variables, existing degradation models are unsuitable for modeling waxy lubrication layer degradation data. To address this challenge, we propose a functional data‐driven method leveraging dense observations of waxy degradation. Through extensive simulations and a case study, we demonstrate the superior performance and effectiveness of the proposed approach.
蜡是一种普遍的润滑材料,广泛应用于各种工程领域。了解蜡润滑层在不同应力变量和水平下的降解特性对于确保系统的安全性和可靠性至关重要。由于蜡状润滑层在不同应力变量下的降解机制尚不明确,现有的降解模型不适合蜡状润滑层降解数据建模。为了应对这一挑战,我们提出了一种功能性数据驱动方法,利用对蜡质降解的密集观测。通过大量模拟和案例研究,我们证明了所提方法的卓越性能和有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Modelling and inference for a degradation process with partial maintenance effects 具有部分维护效果的退化过程的建模和推论
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-07-13 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3618
Margaux Leroy, Christophe Bérenguer, Laurent Doyen, Olivier Gaudoin
This paper proposes a new way of modelling imperfect maintenance in degradation models, by assuming that maintenance affects only a part of the degradation process. More precisely, the global degradation process is the sum of two dependent Wiener processes with drift. Maintenance has an effect of the ‐type on only one of these processes: it reduces the degradation level of a quantity which is proportional to the amount of degradation of this process accumulated since previous maintenance. Two particular cases of the model are considered: perturbed and partial replacement models. The usual model is also a specific case of this new model. The system is regularly inspected in order to measure the global degradation level. Two observation schemes are considered. In the complete scheme, the degradation levels are measured both between maintenance actions and at maintenance times (just before and just after). In the general scheme, the degradation levels are measured only between maintenance actions. The maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters is studied for both observation schemes in both particular models. The quality of the estimators is assessed through a simulation study.
本文提出了一种在退化模型中模拟不完善维护的新方法,即假设维护只影响退化过程的一部分。更确切地说,整体退化过程是两个具有漂移的维纳过程之和。维护只对其中一个过程产生"-"型影响:它会降低一个量的退化水平,而这个量与该过程自上次维护以来累积的退化量成正比。该模型有两种特殊情况:扰动模型和部分替换模型。通常的模型也是这种新模型的一种特殊情况。对系统进行定期检查,以测量整体退化程度。我们考虑了两种观测方案。在完整方案中,退化水平是在维护行动之间和维护时间(维护前和维护后)测量的。在一般方案中,只在两次维护行动之间测量退化水平。针对这两种观测方案中的两种特定模型,对模型参数的最大似然估计进行了研究。通过模拟研究评估了估计值的质量。
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引用次数: 0
Editorial for the special issue on experimental design for reliability and life testing 可靠性和寿命测试实验设计》特刊编辑
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3620
Rong Pan
{"title":"Editorial for the special issue on experimental design for reliability and life testing","authors":"Rong Pan","doi":"10.1002/qre.3620","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qre.3620","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":56088,"journal":{"name":"Quality and Reliability Engineering International","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141566707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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Quality and Reliability Engineering International
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