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Distribution‐free multivariate process monitoring: A rank‐energy statistic‐based approach 无分布多变量过程监控:基于秩能统计的方法
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3619
Niladri Chakraborty, Maxim Finkelstein
In this paper, a multivariate process monitoring scheme based on the rank‐energy statistics is proposed which is suitable for high‐dimensional applications such as sensorless drive diagnosis. The rank‐energy statistic is based on multivariate ranks that is grounded on the measure transportation theory. Univariate ranks could be interpreted as a solution to an optimisation problem involving a given set of observations of size and the set {}. Recently, attaining greater robustness than spatial sign or depth‐based ranks, multivariate ranks are proposed as solutions to such optimisation problem in multivariate settings (measure transportation problem). The proposed multivariate process monitoring scheme based on the rank‐energy statistic, subsequently, attains greater robustness than existing nonparametric multivariate process monitoring methods based on spatial sign or depth‐based ranks. The proposed method is also applicable to high‐dimensional data unlike some of the existing nonparametric multivariate process monitoring methods. A rigorous simulation study demonstrates its effective shift detection ability and other important features. A practical application of the proposed method is demonstrated with the sensorless drive diagnosis case study.
本文提出了一种基于秩能统计的多变量过程监控方案,适用于无传感器驱动诊断等高维应用。秩能统计基于多变量秩,而多变量秩是以度量运输理论为基础的。单变量秩可以解释为一个优化问题的解决方案,该问题涉及一组给定大小的观测数据和集合 {}。与基于空间符号或深度的秩相比,多变量秩具有更强的鲁棒性,因此最近提出了多变量秩,作为多变量环境下此类优化问题(度量运输问题)的解决方案。与现有的基于空间符号或深度等级的非参数多元过程监测方法相比,基于秩能统计量的多元过程监测方案具有更强的鲁棒性。与现有的一些非参数多元过程监测方法不同,所提出的方法还适用于高维数据。严格的模拟研究证明了该方法有效的偏移检测能力和其他重要特征。通过无传感器驱动诊断案例研究,展示了所提方法的实际应用。
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引用次数: 0
Unbiased process capability estimation for autocorrelated data using exhaustive systematic sampling 利用详尽系统抽样对自相关数据进行无偏过程能力估计
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-07-07 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3617
Scott D. Grimshaw, Zhupeng Guo, Tyler Duke
It is well known that process control index estimators are inflated when naively applied to positively autocorrelated data. The autocorrelation is a nuisance and not a feature that is captured in the process capability indices. This paper proposes exhaustive systematic sampling to create a pooled variance estimator that replaces the biased estimator of the process data standard deviation when data are autocorrelated. The proposed method is effective because the observations within a systematic sample are spread out in time and should be less correlated with each other as a result. It is similar to Bayesian thinning as a strategy for reducing the impact of autocorrelation except no observations are dropped. Properties of estimated process control indices are derived using quadratic forms and large sample theory that is nonparametric in the sense no distribution or time series model is assumed. Approximately unbiased estimates can be achieved for sufficiently large systematic sampling interval. The proposed method is compared to the time series method in a simulation study that demonstrates similar performance. The proposed method is applied to two examples that use because the target is not the midpoint of the specification limits and the mean differs from the target.
众所周知,过程控制指数估计值如果被简单地应用于正相关的自相关数据,就会被夸大。自相关是一种干扰,并不是过程能力指数所能捕捉到的特征。本文提出了详尽的系统抽样方法,以创建一个集合方差估计器,在数据自相关时取代有偏差的过程数据标准偏差估计器。所提议的方法之所以有效,是因为系统抽样中的观测值在时间上是分散的,因此相互之间的相关性较低。该方法类似于贝叶斯稀疏法,是一种减少自相关影响的策略,但不会丢弃任何观测值。估计过程控制指数的特性是利用二次形式和大样本理论推导出来的,这种理论是非参数的,即不假定分布或时间序列模型。对于足够大的系统抽样间隔,可以获得近似无偏的估计值。在一项模拟研究中,将所提出的方法与时间序列方法进行了比较,结果表明两者性能相似。由于目标值不是规格限的中点,且平均值与目标值不同,因此提出的方法适用于两个例子。
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引用次数: 0
Degradation index‐based prediction for remaining useful life using multivariate sensor data 利用多变量传感器数据,基于退化指数预测剩余使用寿命
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-07-06 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3615
Wenda Kang, Geurt Jongbloed, Yubin Tian, Piao Chen
The prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) is a critical component of prognostic and health management for industrial systems. In recent decades, there has been a surge of interest in RUL prediction based on degradation data of a well‐defined degradation index (DI). However, in many real‐world applications, the DI may not be readily available and must be constructed from complex source data, rendering many existing methods inapplicable. Motivated by multivariate sensor data from industrial induction motors, this paper proposes a novel prognostic framework that develops a nonlinear DI, serving as an ensemble of representative features, and employs a similarity‐based method for RUL prediction. The proposed framework enables online prediction of RUL by dynamically updating information from the in‐service unit. Simulation studies and a case study on three‐phase industrial induction motors demonstrate that the proposed framework can effectively extract reliability information from various channels and predict RUL with high accuracy.
剩余使用寿命(RUL)预测是工业系统预报和健康管理的重要组成部分。近几十年来,人们对基于定义明确的降解指数(DI)的降解数据进行剩余使用寿命预测的兴趣日益高涨。然而,在许多实际应用中,降解指数可能不是现成的,必须从复杂的源数据中构建,这使得许多现有方法无法应用。受工业感应电机多变量传感器数据的启发,本文提出了一个新颖的预报框架,该框架开发了一个非线性 DI,作为代表性特征的集合,并采用基于相似性的方法进行 RUL 预测。该框架通过动态更新在役机组的信息,实现了 RUL 的在线预测。对三相工业感应电动机的仿真研究和案例研究表明,所提出的框架能有效地从各种渠道提取可靠性信息,并高精度地预测 RUL。
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引用次数: 0
A modular model for reliability analysis model of PMS with multiple K/N subsystems and mixed shocks 具有多个 K/N 子系统和混合冲击的 PMS 可靠性分析模型的模块化模型
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-07-06 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3614
Weijie Wang, Xiangyu Li, Xiaoyan Xiong
In this article, a modular model is proposed for the reliability modeling of phased mission systems (PMSs) with complicated system behaviors. By the modular method, the system is divided into several levels: system, subsystem, and components. At the component level, the shock effect, including self‐degradation, additional wear and damage caused by shocks, is considered and the component reliability is evaluated. Then, the reliability modeling method of the K/N system consisting of multiple K/N subsystems is proposed, by a mathematics reasoning method. The correctness of the proposed method is also verified by a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation procedure. At last, the modular method is applied at the system level, and the reliability of a practical engineering case, the attitude and orbit control system (AOCS), is evaluated for illustration. Meanwhile, the parameter sensitivity analysis is also carried out for implementation.
本文提出了一种模块化模型,用于对具有复杂系统行为的分阶段任务系统(PMS)进行可靠性建模。通过模块化方法,系统被划分为几个层次:系统、子系统和组件。在组件层面,考虑了冲击效应,包括冲击引起的自退化、额外磨损和损坏,并对组件可靠性进行了评估。然后,通过数学推理方法,提出了由多个 K/N 子系统组成的 K/N 系统的可靠性建模方法。还通过蒙特卡罗(MC)模拟程序验证了所提方法的正确性。最后,在系统层面应用了模块化方法,并对实际工程案例--姿态和轨道控制系统(AOCS)的可靠性进行了评估,以资说明。同时,为便于实施,还进行了参数敏感性分析。
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引用次数: 0
Condition‐based maintenance management for two‐stage continuous deterioration with two‐dimensional inspection errors 针对具有二维检测误差的两阶段连续劣化的基于状态的维护管理
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-07-05 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3613
Jiantai Wang, Xiaobing Ma, Kaiye Gao, Yu Zhao, Li Yang
Inspections often perform imperfect outcomes during maintenance processes owing to human errors, management issues and other limitations. In particular, such imperfection affects the maintenance management of multistage deterioration significantly due to both false state identification and measurement errors, whose quantitative analysis, however, is seldom reported in the literature. To fill these gaps, this paper devises a condition‐based maintenance management strategy oriented to two‐stage continuous degradation under two‐dimensional inspection imperfection. Specifically, a threshold‐based replacement is executed under the normal‐working state if the detected degradation value exceeds the preset limit; additionally, preventive replacement is immediately performed once the defective state is identified. Notably, the detection outcome rather than the actual working condition decides how preventive maintenance operates. The long‐run cost rate is minimized via the optimization of the inspection cycle and replacement limit. Besides, numerical experiments conducted on train bogie bearing are provided, showing substantial superiorities over cost‐effectiveness promotion and performance improvement.
在维护过程中,由于人为错误、管理问题和其他限制因素,检查结果往往不尽如人意。特别是,由于错误的状态识别和测量误差,这种不完美对多阶段劣化的维护管理影响很大,但文献中很少对其进行定量分析。为了填补这些空白,本文针对二维检测缺陷下的两阶段连续劣化设计了一种基于状态的维护管理策略。具体来说,在正常工作状态下,如果检测到的退化值超过预设限值,就会执行基于阈值的更换;此外,一旦发现缺陷状态,就会立即执行预防性更换。值得注意的是,决定预防性维护运行方式的是检测结果而非实际工作状态。通过优化检测周期和更换限制,可使长期成本率最小化。此外,还提供了在列车转向架轴承上进行的数值实验,结果表明该方法在提高成本效益和改善性能方面具有显著优势。
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引用次数: 0
Statistical inference of a series reliability system using shock models with Weibull distribution 利用威布尔分布冲击模型对串联可靠性系统进行统计推断
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-07-05 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3604
Ammar M. Sarhan, Ehab M. Almetwally, Abdelfattah Mustafa, Ahlam H. Tolba
In this study, we define a series system with non‐independent and non‐identical components using a shock model with sources of fatal shocks. Here, it is assumed that the shocks happen randomly and independently, following a Weibull distribution with various scale and shape parameters. A dependability model with unknown parameters is produced by this process. Making statistical conclusions about the model parameters is the main objective of this research. We apply the maximum likelihood and Bayes approaches to determine the model parameters' point and interval estimates. We shall demonstrate that no analytical solutions to the likelihood equations must be solved to obtain the parameters' maximum likelihood estimates. As a result, we will use the R program to approximate the parameter point and interval estimates. Additionally, we will use the bootstrap‐t and bootstrap‐p methods to approximate the confidence intervals. About the Bayesian approach, we presume that each model parameter is independent and follows a gamma prior distribution with a range of attached hyperparameter values. The model parameters' posterior distribution does not take a practical form. We are unable to derive the Bayes estimates in closed forms as a result. To solve this issue, we use the Gibbs sampler from the Metropolis‐Hasting algorithm based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo method to condense the posterior distribution. To demonstrate the relevance of this research, a real data set application is detailed.
在本研究中,我们利用一个具有致命冲击源的冲击模型,定义了一个具有非独立和非相同成分的系列系统。在这里,我们假设冲击是随机和独立发生的,遵循具有不同规模和形状参数的 Weibull 分布。在此过程中会产生一个参数未知的可依赖性模型。对模型参数做出统计结论是本研究的主要目的。我们采用最大似然法和贝叶斯法来确定模型参数的点估计和区间估计。我们将证明,要获得参数的最大似然估计值,无需求解似然方程的解析解。因此,我们将使用 R 程序来逼近参数的点估计和区间估计。此外,我们还将使用 bootstrap-t 和 bootstrap-p 方法来逼近置信区间。关于贝叶斯方法,我们假定每个模型参数都是独立的,并遵循一个伽马先验分布,其附带的超参数值范围也是独立的。模型参数的后验分布没有实际形式。因此,我们无法以封闭形式得出贝叶斯估计值。为了解决这个问题,我们使用了基于马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗方法的 Metropolis-Hasting 算法中的 Gibbs 采样器来压缩后验分布。为了证明这项研究的相关性,我们详细介绍了一个真实数据集的应用。
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引用次数: 0
Reliability analysis and preventive maintenance policy for consecutive k$k$‐out‐of‐n:F$n: F$ balanced system under failure criterion operating in shock environment 连续 k$k$-out-of-n:F$n:在冲击环境中运行的失效标准下的 F$ 平衡系统的可靠性分析
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-07-05 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3612
Qinglai Dong, Mengmeng Bai
This paper presents a consecutive ‐out‐of‐: balance system in a shock environment, where the state transition of component is induced by external shocks. If a predetermined threshold number of effective shocks are applied to component in a critical state, the component will fail. The state of the system is defined by the number of consecutive failing component groups in the system, which leads to system failure when a critical number of consecutive failing components is reached. To minimize maintenance costs, we propose a preventive maintenance method with an optimization model. We use finite Markov chain imbedding and Phase‐type distribution to calculate component group failure rates and associated probability functions in discrete and continuous time, respectively. The validity and accuracy of the model are confirmed by numerical examples and Monte Carlo simulations.
本文提出了一个在冲击环境下的连续失衡系统,在该系统中,元件的状态转换是由外部冲击引起的。如果对处于临界状态的组件施加预定阈值数量的有效冲击,该组件就会失效。系统的状态由系统中连续失效组件组的数量来定义,当连续失效组件达到临界数量时,系统就会失效。为了最大限度地降低维护成本,我们提出了一种带有优化模型的预防性维护方法。我们使用有限马尔可夫链嵌入和相型分布来分别计算离散和连续时间内的组件组故障率和相关概率函数。数值示例和蒙特卡罗模拟证实了模型的有效性和准确性。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal resource allocation in common bus performance sharing systems with transmission loss 有传输损耗的公共总线性能共享系统中的最优资源分配
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-06-30 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3610
Liudong Gu, Guanjun Wang, Yifan Zhou
The reliability modeling and optimization of performance sharing systems (PSSs) are of vital importance due to their wide applications. Existing research mainly focuses on evaluating and maximizing the reliability of PSSs. However, in many practical systems, decision‐makers tend to prioritize the average cost of the system over its reliability. This paper studies the resource allocation optimization in common bus PSSs. In such systems, each unit has binary‐state random performance to satisfy the multi‐state random demand. The surplus performance can be shared via a common bus with transmission loss between the common bus and the unit. The performance allocation, performance transmission, and unsupplied demand incur costs. Resource allocation strategies are determined by optimization models considering different objective functions and constraints. Additionally, transmission loss between the common bus and the unit is considered. A genetic algorithm is employed to efficiently find the optimal allocation strategies. Numerical examples prove the effectiveness of the proposed models in improving system reliability and reducing system costs.
由于性能共享系统(PSS)的广泛应用,其可靠性建模和优化至关重要。现有的研究主要集中在 PSS 可靠性的评估和最大化上。然而,在许多实际系统中,决策者往往会优先考虑系统的平均成本,而不是可靠性。本文研究了普通总线 PSS 中的资源分配优化问题。在这种系统中,每个单元都具有二态随机性能,以满足多态随机需求。剩余性能可通过公共总线共享,公共总线与机组之间存在传输损耗。性能分配、性能传输和未供应需求都会产生成本。资源分配策略由考虑不同目标函数和约束条件的优化模型决定。此外,还考虑了公共总线和机组之间的传输损耗。采用遗传算法有效地找到最佳分配策略。数值实例证明了所提模型在提高系统可靠性和降低系统成本方面的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Reliability analysis of multiple repairable systems under imperfect repair and unobserved heterogeneity 不完全修复和无观测异质性条件下多重可修复系统的可靠性分析
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-06-29 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3607
Éder S. Brito, Vera L. D. Tomazella, Paulo H. Ferreira, Francisco Louzada Neto, Oilson A. Gonzatto Junior
Imperfect repairs (IRs) are widely applicable in reliability engineering since most equipment is not completely replaced after failure. In this sense, it is necessary to develop methodologies that can describe failure processes and predict the reliability of systems under this type of repair. One of the challenges in this context is to establish reliability models for multiple repairable systems considering unobserved heterogeneity associated with systems failure times and their failure intensity after performing IRs. Thus, in this work, frailty models are proposed to identify unobserved heterogeneity in these failure processes. In this context, we consider the arithmetic reduction of age (ARA) and arithmetic reduction of intensity (ARI) classes of IR models, with constant repair efficiency and a power‐law process distribution to model failure times and a univariate Gamma distributed frailty by all systems failure times. Classical inferential methods are used to estimate the parameters and reliability predictors of systems under IRs. An extensive simulation study is carried out under different scenarios to investigate the suitability of the models and the asymptotic consistency and efficiency properties of the maximum likelihood estimators. Finally, we illustrate the practical relevance of the proposed models on two real data sets.
不完全修复(IRs)广泛应用于可靠性工程,因为大多数设备在发生故障后不会被完全替换。从这个意义上说,有必要开发能够描述故障过程并预测系统在此类维修下的可靠性的方法。这方面的挑战之一是为多个可修复系统建立可靠性模型,同时考虑到与系统故障时间相关的未观察到的异质性以及执行 IR 后的故障强度。因此,在这项工作中,我们提出了虚弱模型来识别这些故障过程中未观察到的异质性。在此背景下,我们考虑了年龄算术缩减(ARA)和强度算术缩减(ARI)类 IR 模型,用恒定维修效率和幂律过程分布来模拟故障时间,并用单变量伽马分布虚弱来模拟所有系统的故障时间。经典推理方法用于估算 IR 条件下系统的参数和可靠性预测因子。我们在不同场景下进行了广泛的模拟研究,以考察模型的适用性以及最大似然估计值的渐近一致性和效率特性。最后,我们在两个真实数据集上说明了所提模型的实用性。
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引用次数: 0
Advanced reliability and safety methodologies and novel applications (Selected papers of the international conference of QR2MSE2023) 先进的可靠性和安全性方法及新型应用(QR2MSE2023 国际会议论文选)
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-06-29 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3611
Hong‐Zhong Huang, He Li, Yanfeng Li
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引用次数: 0
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Quality and Reliability Engineering International
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