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Integrating fuzzy logic and multi‐criteria decision‐making in a hybrid FMECA for robust risk prioritization 在混合 FMECA 中整合模糊逻辑和多标准决策,实现稳健的风险优先排序
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-05-30 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3601
Ammar Chakhrit, Imene Djelamda, Mohammed Bougofa, Islam H. M. Guetarni, Abderraouf Bouafia, Mohammed Chennoufi
Failure mode effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) is widely employed across industries to recognize and reduce possible failures. Despite its extensive usage, FMECA encounters challenges in decision‐making. In this paper, a new fuzzy resilience‐based RPN model is created to develop the FMECA method. The fuzzy model transcends the limitations associated with traditional risk priority number calculations by incorporating factors beyond frequency, severity, and detection. This extension includes considerations impacting system cost, sustainability, and safety, providing a more comprehensive risk assessment. In addition, to create trust in decision‐makers, a robust assessment approach is suggested, integrating three methodologies. In the initial phase, the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process and the grey relation analysis method are used to determine the subjective weights of different risk factors and resolve the flaws associated with the deficiency of constructed fuzzy inference rules. In the second phase, an entropy method is applied to handle the uncertainty of individual weightage calculated and capture different conflicting experts' views. The suggested approach is validated through a case study involving a gas turbine. The results demonstrate significant differences in failure mode prioritization between different approaches. The introduction of MTTR addresses critical shortcomings in traditional FMECA, enhancing predictive capabilities. Furthermore, the hybrid approach improved criticality assessment and failure mode ranking, classifying failure modes into fifteen categories, aiding decision‐making, and applying appropriate risk mitigation measures. Overall, the findings validate the efficacy of the proposed approach in addressing uncertainties and divergent expert judgments for risk assessment in complex systems.
故障模式影响和临界分析(FMECA)被各行各业广泛应用于识别和减少可能出现的故障。尽管 FMECA 被广泛使用,但在决策过程中仍会遇到挑战。本文创建了一个新的基于复原力的模糊 RPN 模型,用于开发 FMECA 方法。该模糊模型通过纳入频率、严重性和检测之外的因素,超越了传统风险优先级数字计算的局限性。这一扩展包括了影响系统成本、可持续性和安全性的因素,从而提供了更全面的风险评估。此外,为了让决策者产生信任感,建议采用一种稳健的评估方法,将三种方法结合起来。在初始阶段,使用模糊层次分析法和灰色关系分析法来确定不同风险因素的主观权重,并解决与构建的模糊推理规则缺陷相关的问题。在第二阶段,采用熵方法来处理计算出的单个权重的不确定性,并捕捉专家的不同冲突观点。所建议的方法通过涉及燃气轮机的案例研究进行了验证。结果表明,不同方法在故障模式优先级排序方面存在显著差异。MTTR 的引入解决了传统 FMECA 的关键缺陷,增强了预测能力。此外,混合方法改进了关键性评估和失效模式排序,将失效模式分为 15 类,有助于决策和应用适当的风险缓解措施。总之,研究结果验证了所提出的方法在解决复杂系统风险评估的不确定性和专家判断分歧方面的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Performance reliability evaluation of high‐pressure internal gear pump 高压内啮合齿轮泵的性能可靠性评估
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-05-28 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3585
Yu Tang, Hao Lu, Zhencai Zhu, Zhiyuan Shi, Beilian Xu
With the development of the high‐end equipment technology, the performance requirements of the internal gear pump (IGP) under high pressure are also increasing. However, the increase of working pressure will lead to the instability of gear pump performance in terms of volumetric efficiency, noise, reliability and so on, it is necessary to reasonably evaluate the reliability level of high‐pressure IGP. The reliability analysis of the high‐pressure IGP is carried out from the aspects of flow, noise, and gear strength in this paper. First, the output flow rate and far‐field flow‐induced noise of the high‐pressure IGP were obtained through fluid numerical simulation, and experimental verification was conducted. Then, based on the time‐varying meshing stiffness, backlash function and static transmission error of the gear pair, a nonlinear dynamic model of the internal meshing gear pair was established. The time‐varying meshing force was obtained through the dynamic model of the gear pair, and then the tooth contact stress and tooth root bending stress were obtained. Finally, considering the uncertain factors affecting the performance of the high‐pressure IGP, Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) combined with dendrite network (DD) was used for random response modeling. The performance reliability of the high‐pressure IGP, including output flow rate, far‐field flow‐induced noise, and the strength of gear pair, were estimated based on the fourth moment‐based saddlepoint approximation (FMSA). The reliability analysis results can provide a theoretical basis for the structural optimization design of the high‐pressure IGP.
随着高端装备技术的发展,对内啮合齿轮泵(IGP)在高压下的性能要求也越来越高。然而,工作压力的增加会导致齿轮泵在容积效率、噪声、可靠性等方面的性能不稳定,因此有必要对高压内啮合齿轮泵的可靠性水平进行合理评估。本文从流量、噪声、齿轮强度等方面对高压 IGP 进行了可靠性分析。首先,通过流体数值模拟得到了高压 IGP 的输出流量和远场流致噪声,并进行了实验验证。然后,根据齿轮副的时变啮合刚度、反向间隙函数和静态传动误差,建立了内啮合齿轮副的非线性动态模型。通过齿轮副的动态模型得到了时变啮合力,进而得到了齿接触应力和齿根弯曲应力。最后,考虑到影响高压内啮合齿轮性能的不确定因素,采用拉丁超立方采样(LHS)结合树枝状网络(DD)进行随机响应建模。基于第四矩鞍点近似(FMSA)估算了高压 IGP 的性能可靠性,包括输出流量、远场流诱导噪声和齿轮副强度。可靠性分析结果可为高压 IGP 的结构优化设计提供理论依据。
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引用次数: 0
Intelligent fault diagnosis of machinery based on hybrid deep learning with multi temporal correlation feature fusion 基于多时间相关特征融合的混合深度学习的机械智能故障诊断
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-05-28 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3597
Yaqiong Lv, Xiaohu Zhang, Yiwei Cheng, Carman K. M. Lee
With the advent of intelligent manufacturing era, higher requirements are put forward for the fault diagnosis technology of machinery. The existing data‐driven approaches either rely on specialized empirical knowledge for feature analysis, or adopt single deep neural network topology structure for automatic feature extraction with compromise of certain information loss especially the time‐series information's sacrifice, which both eventually affect the diagnosis accuracy. To address the issue, this paper proposes a novel multi‐temporal correlation feature fusion net (MTCFF‐Net) for intelligent fault diagnosis, which can capture and retain time‐series fault feature information from different dimensions. MTCFF‐Net contains four sub‐networks, which are long and short‐term memory (LSTM) sub‐network, Gramian angular summation field (GASF)‐GhostNet sub‐network and Markov transition field (MTF)‐GhostNet sub‐network and feature fusion sub‐network. Features of different dimensional are extracted through parallel LSTM sub‐network, GASF‐GhostNet sub‐network and MTF‐GhostNet sub‐network, and then fused by feature fusion sub‐network for accurate fault diagnosis. Two fault diagnosis experimental studies on bearings are implemented to validate the effectiveness and generalization of the proposed MTCFF‐Net. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model is superior to other comparative approaches.
随着智能制造时代的到来,对机械故障诊断技术提出了更高的要求。现有的数据驱动方法要么依赖专门的经验知识进行特征分析,要么采用单一的深度神经网络拓扑结构进行自动特征提取,但都存在一定的信息损失,尤其是牺牲了时间序列信息,最终影响了诊断的准确性。针对这一问题,本文提出了一种用于智能故障诊断的新型多时序相关特征融合网(MTCFF-Net),它能从不同维度捕捉并保留时序故障特征信息。MTCFF-Net 包含四个子网络,分别是长短期记忆(LSTM)子网络、格拉西亚角求和场(GASF)-GhostNet 子网络、马尔可夫转换场(MTF)-GhostNet 子网络和特征融合子网络。通过并行 LSTM 子网络、GASF-GhostNet 子网络和 MTF-GhostNet 子网络提取不同维度的特征,然后通过特征融合子网络进行融合,从而实现精确的故障诊断。为了验证所提出的 MTCFF-Net 的有效性和通用性,对轴承进行了两次故障诊断实验研究。实验结果表明,所提出的模型优于其他比较方法。
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引用次数: 0
Advances and novel applications in systems reliability and safety engineering (selected papers of the International Conference of SRSE 2022) 系统可靠性与安全工程的进展和新应用(SRSE 2022 国际会议论文选)
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-05-27 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3580
Weiwen Peng, Ancha Xu, Jiawen Hu
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引用次数: 0
Fatigue reliability evaluation for impellers with consideration of multi‐source uncertainties using a WOA‐XGBoost surrogate model 使用 WOA-XGBoost 代用模型对考虑了多源不确定性的叶轮进行疲劳可靠性评估
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-05-25 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3584
Cheng Qian, Wenjuan Li, Shengxing Wei, Bo Sun, Yi Ren
When using Monte Carlo simulation involving repeated finite element analysis (FEA) to perform fatigue reliability evaluation for an impeller, a variety of uncertainties should be considered to ensure the comprehensiveness of fatigue predictions. These uncertainties include the aleatory uncertainty from the geometric, material and load condition, and epistemic uncertainty from the parameters of the physics‐of‐failure (PoF) model to yield fatigue prediction. However, the latter uncertainty is often ignored in fatigue reliability analysis. And the reliability assessment will become computationally unaffordable and inefficient when there are many random variables involved, as an enormous amount of FEAs are demanded. To address this problem, a Whale Optimization Algorithm‐extreme gradient boosting (WOA‐XGBoost) surrogate model is developed, based on relatively few FEA results obtained using a Latin hypercube sampling (LHS). Its strengths lie in the interpretability of the design variables and effective determination of fine‐tuned hyperparameters. A case study on an impeller is conducted considering uncertainties from 11 input variables, where an efficient XGBoost model with an R2 greater than 0.93 on test set is established using 400 samples from practical FEAs. In addition, the importance analysis indicates that elasticity modulus and density play the greatest impact on the maximum strain, showing a combined importance of 82.3%. Furthermore, the reliability assessment results under fatigue parameter derived from the Median method tend to be more conservative compared to those obtained from the Seeger method.
在使用蒙特卡罗模拟(包括重复有限元分析)对叶轮进行疲劳可靠性评估时,应考虑各种不确定性,以确保疲劳预测的全面性。这些不确定性包括来自几何、材料和负载条件的已知不确定性,以及来自失效物理(PoF)模型参数的已知不确定性,从而得出疲劳预测结果。然而,在疲劳可靠性分析中,后一种不确定性往往被忽视。而当涉及许多随机变量时,由于需要进行大量的有限元分析,可靠性评估在计算上将变得难以承受且效率低下。为解决这一问题,我们基于使用拉丁超立方采样(LHS)获得的相对较少的有限元分析结果,开发了鲸鱼优化算法-极端梯度提升(WOA-XGBoost)替代模型。其优势在于设计变量的可解释性和微调超参数的有效确定。考虑到 11 个输入变量的不确定性,对叶轮进行了案例研究,利用 400 个实际有限元分析样本建立了一个高效的 XGBoost 模型,其测试集 R2 大于 0.93。此外,重要性分析表明,弹性模量和密度对最大应变的影响最大,两者的重要性之和达到 82.3%。此外,与 Seeger 方法相比,中值法得出的疲劳参数下的可靠性评估结果趋于保守。
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引用次数: 0
A pyramidal residual attention model of short‐term wind power forecasting for wind farm safety 用于风电场安全的短期风功率预测金字塔残余注意力模型
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-05-13 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3562
Hai‐Kun Wang, Jiahui Du, Danyang Li, Feng Chen
Wind power fluctuation significantly impacts the safe and stable operation of the wind farm power grid. As the installed capacity of grid‐connected wind power expands to a certain threshold, these fluctuations can detrimentally affect the wind farm's operations. Consequently, wind power prediction emerges as a critical technology for ensuring safe, stable and efficient wind power generation. To optimize power grid dispatching and enhance wind farm operation and maintenance, precise wind power prediction is essential. In this context, we introduce a joint deep learning model that integrates a compact pyramid structure with a residual attention encoder, aiming to bolster wind farm operational safety and reliability. The model employs a compact pyramid architecture to extract multi‐time scale features from the input sequence, facilitating effective information exchange across different scales and enhancing the capture of long‐term sequence dependencies. To mitigate vanishing gradients, the residual transformer encoder is applied, augmenting the original attention mechanism with a global dot product attention pathway. This approach improves the gradient descent process, making it more accessible without introducing additional hyperparameters. The model's efficacy is validated using a dataset from an actual wind farm in China. Experimental outcomes reveal a notable enhancement in wind power prediction accuracy, thereby contributing to the operational safety of wind farms.
风电波动会严重影响风电场电网的安全稳定运行。当并网风电装机容量扩大到一定程度时,这些波动会对风电场的运行产生不利影响。因此,风能预测成为确保安全、稳定和高效风力发电的关键技术。为了优化电网调度,加强风电场的运行和维护,精确的风功率预测至关重要。在此背景下,我们引入了一种联合深度学习模型,该模型集成了紧凑型金字塔结构和剩余注意力编码器,旨在提高风电场运行的安全性和可靠性。该模型采用紧凑型金字塔结构,从输入序列中提取多时间尺度特征,促进了不同尺度间的有效信息交换,并增强了对长期序列依赖性的捕捉。为了缓解梯度消失问题,该模型采用了残差变换器编码器,通过全局点乘注意路径增强了原始注意机制。这种方法改进了梯度下降过程,在不引入额外超参数的情况下使其更易于使用。该模型的有效性通过中国一个实际风电场的数据集进行了验证。实验结果表明,该模型显著提高了风力发电预测的准确性,从而为风电场的运行安全做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
System reliability modeling and analysis for a marine power equipment operating in a discrete‐time dynamic environment 在离散时间动态环境中运行的海洋动力设备的系统可靠性建模与分析
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-05-11 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3577
Yan Li, Wei Zhang, Lirong Cui, Hongda Gao
Exploring on reliability modeling and analysis on a marine equipment in a dynamic environment is a meaningful and challenging issue, because the system commonly carries out the task at sea away from land and suffers a distinct influence of environment. Thus, a reliability model of a multi‐state repairable system operating in dynamic environment is developed by introducing the background of the marine power system in this paper. The novelty of the research lies in the modeling and computing methods are relatively innovative by employing the aggregated stochastic processes, Hadamard production and matrix‐analytic method. First, the working modes of the marine power system under several different kinds of conditions are introduced. Then, the evolution of both the system states and environment are described as discrete‐time Markov chains with multiple and different transition probability matrices. The failure probability and repair probability of components are also distinct in different environments. Furthermore, some performance indexes, especially the index relevant to the environment, are derived, respectively. Finally, the conclusion is obtained by a numerical example of the marine power system, which also illustrates the validity and applicability of the proposed model.
由于海洋设备通常在远离陆地的海上执行任务,受环境影响明显,因此探索动态环境下海洋设备的可靠性建模和分析是一个既有意义又有挑战性的问题。因此,本文通过介绍海洋动力系统的背景,建立了动态环境下运行的多态可修复系统的可靠性模型。研究的新颖之处在于采用了聚合随机过程、哈达玛生产和矩阵分析方法,在建模和计算方法上有较大创新。首先,介绍了海洋动力系统在几种不同条件下的工作模式。然后,用具有多个不同过渡概率矩阵的离散时间马尔可夫链来描述系统状态和环境的演化。在不同环境下,组件的故障概率和修复概率也各不相同。此外,还分别得出了一些性能指标,尤其是与环境相关的指标。最后,通过一个海洋动力系统的数值实例得出结论,这也说明了所提模型的有效性和适用性。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing high‐quality process performance using the quality‐yield index: An innovative methodology 使用质量收益指数评估高质量工艺性能:创新方法
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-05-10 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3576
Chien‐Wei Wu, Armin Darmawan, Zih‐Huei Wang, Meng‐Tzu Lin
Manufacturers must meet high‐quality standards and exceed customer expectations to stay competitive due to significant technological advancements in recent decades. While implementing the yield measure is useful for achieving process performance by focusing on products that fall within specified limits, it does not accommodate specific customer requirements, particularly when a product's quality characteristic deviates from target value. To address this need, the quality‐yield index (Q‐yield) has been proposed, which combines the process‐yield index and loss‐based capability index, providing a more advanced performance measure. However, the Q‐yield index's confidence interval is challenging to derive due to the complicated sampling distribution involved. Several existing methods have attempted to construct an approximate confidence interval but none have performed well. Therefore, this article proposes an innovative approach, called the generalized confidence intervals (GCIs), that utilizes the idea of generalized pivotal quantities to establish the confidence interval for the Q‐yield index. The proposed approach is evaluated through simulations and compared to existing methods. The results reveal that the proposed approach provides the most accurate results for constructing the lower confidence bound of the Q‐yield index. This approach is recommended to evaluate process performance using the Q‐yield index for high‐quality customer requirements.
由于近几十年来技术的长足进步,制造商必须达到高质量标准并超越客户期望才能保持竞争力。虽然实施产量衡量标准有助于通过关注在规定范围内的产品来实现过程绩效,但它并不能满足客户的具体要求,尤其是当产品的质量特性偏离目标值时。为了满足这一需求,有人提出了质量产量指数(Q-yield),它结合了流程产量指数和基于损耗的能力指数,提供了一种更先进的性能测量方法。然而,由于涉及复杂的抽样分布,Q-产量指数的置信区间的推导具有挑战性。现有的几种方法都试图构建近似的置信区间,但效果都不理想。因此,本文提出了一种称为广义置信区间(GCIs)的创新方法,利用广义枢轴量的思想来建立 Q-产量指数的置信区间。我们通过模拟对所提出的方法进行了评估,并与现有方法进行了比较。结果表明,建议的方法为构建 Q-产量指数的置信区间下限提供了最准确的结果。建议使用这种方法利用 Q-产量指数评估流程性能,以满足高质量的客户要求。
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引用次数: 0
Reliability analysis of rolling bearings considering failure mode correlations 考虑故障模式相关性的滚动轴承可靠性分析
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-05-10 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3566
Aodi Yu, Ruixin Ruan, Xubo Zhang, Yuquan He, Kuantao Li
As an essential mechanical component, a rolling bearing can exhibit multiple failure modes that may occur independently or in correlation with one another. A reliability analysis method that meticulously accounts for the interdependencies among various bearing failure modes is presented in this paper. The examination of wear and fatigue failure mechanisms in rolling bearings is carried out using the Physics of Failure (PoF) approach. By considering the influence of uncertain variables, the limit state functions for individual failure modes are formulated through the application of stress‐strength interference theory. In the context of wear failure, the limit state function is derived using working clearance as the characteristic quantity. On the other hand, the limit state function for fatigue failure is constructed with a focus on fatigue damage accumulation. The Copula function is used to characterize the relationship between wear failure and fatigue failure, and a reliability calculation model for rolling bearings is developed, considering the correlation between these failure modes. Ultimately, the proposed method is utilized to assess the reliability of bearings under two different sets of test conditions. The feasibility of this method is confirmed through test data, demonstrating its effectiveness in predicting bearing reliability. Through the application of this method, engineers can optimize bearing size parameters, select appropriate initial clearances, and enhance the reliability design of bearing.
作为一种重要的机械部件,滚动轴承可能表现出多种失效模式,这些失效模式可能单独发生,也可能相互关联。本文提出了一种可靠性分析方法,该方法细致地考虑了各种轴承失效模式之间的相互依存关系。本文采用失效物理学(PoF)方法对滚动轴承的磨损和疲劳失效机制进行了研究。通过考虑不确定变量的影响,应用应力-强度干涉理论制定了各种失效模式的极限状态函数。就磨损失效而言,极限状态函数是以工作间隙为特征量计算得出的。另一方面,疲劳失效的极限状态函数是以疲劳损伤累积为重点构建的。Copula 函数用于描述磨损失效和疲劳失效之间的关系,考虑到这些失效模式之间的相关性,建立了滚动轴承的可靠性计算模型。最后,利用所提出的方法评估了轴承在两组不同试验条件下的可靠性。测试数据证实了该方法的可行性,证明了其在预测轴承可靠性方面的有效性。通过应用该方法,工程师可以优化轴承尺寸参数,选择合适的初始游隙,提高轴承的可靠性设计。
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引用次数: 0
Combined Shewhart–EWMA and Shewhart–CUSUM monitoring schemes for time between events 事件间隔时间的 Shewhart-EWMA 和 Shewhart-CUSUM 组合监测方案
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2024-05-09 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3571
Xuelong Hu, Fan Xia, Jiujun Zhang, Zhi Song
To improve the detecting abilities of upward and downward parameter changes in high‐quality process, two combined schemes by integrating memory‐type, that is, exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) or cumulative sum (CUSUM), and memoryless, that is, Shewhart, are proposed for monitoring the time between events (TBE), which is modeled as an exponential distributed variable. A Monte Carlo simulation method is employed to obtain the Run Length () properties, that is average run length (), of the proposed schemes for different parameter settings. The nearly optimal monitoring parameter combinations under different change size are obtained by minimizing the out‐of‐control with the satisfied in‐control . Using the designed parameters, the performance of the proposed monitoring schemes is compared with the existing EWMA and CUSUM TBE. The results show that the proposed combined Shewhart–EWMA or Shewhart–CUSUM TBE generally perform better than the corresponding EWMA or CUSUM TBE for large changes and they also show better performance than the Shewhart TBE for small changes. Finally, a real dataset of organic light‐emitting diode (OLED) failure time from Sumsung company is employed to indicate the usage and implementation of combined TBE schemes.
为了提高对高质量过程中参数向上和向下变化的检测能力,我们提出了两种组合方案,一种是有记忆型方案,即指数加权移动平均(EWMA)或累积和(CUSUM),另一种是无记忆型方案,即 Shewhart,用于监测事件间时间(TBE),TBE 被建模为指数分布变量。采用蒙特卡罗仿真方法获得了所提方案在不同参数设置下的运行长度()属性,即平均运行长度()。在满足控制内的前提下,通过最小化失控,得到了不同变化大小下的近似最优监控参数组合。利用所设计的参数,将所提出的监控方案的性能与现有的 EWMA 和 CUSUM TBE 进行了比较。结果表明,对于较大的变化,建议的 Shewhart-EWMA 或 Shewhart-CUSUM TBE 组合方案的性能通常优于相应的 EWMA 或 CUSUM TBE;对于较小的变化,它们的性能也优于 Shewhart TBE。最后,我们采用了 Sumsung 公司有机发光二极管 (OLED) 故障时间的真实数据集来说明组合 TBE 方案的使用和实施情况。
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引用次数: 0
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