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Integrating fuzzy logic and multi‐criteria decision‐making in a hybrid FMECA for robust risk prioritization 在混合 FMECA 中整合模糊逻辑和多标准决策,实现稳健的风险优先排序
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2024-05-30 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3601
Ammar Chakhrit, Imene Djelamda, Mohammed Bougofa, Islam H. M. Guetarni, Abderraouf Bouafia, Mohammed Chennoufi
Failure mode effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) is widely employed across industries to recognize and reduce possible failures. Despite its extensive usage, FMECA encounters challenges in decision‐making. In this paper, a new fuzzy resilience‐based RPN model is created to develop the FMECA method. The fuzzy model transcends the limitations associated with traditional risk priority number calculations by incorporating factors beyond frequency, severity, and detection. This extension includes considerations impacting system cost, sustainability, and safety, providing a more comprehensive risk assessment. In addition, to create trust in decision‐makers, a robust assessment approach is suggested, integrating three methodologies. In the initial phase, the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process and the grey relation analysis method are used to determine the subjective weights of different risk factors and resolve the flaws associated with the deficiency of constructed fuzzy inference rules. In the second phase, an entropy method is applied to handle the uncertainty of individual weightage calculated and capture different conflicting experts' views. The suggested approach is validated through a case study involving a gas turbine. The results demonstrate significant differences in failure mode prioritization between different approaches. The introduction of MTTR addresses critical shortcomings in traditional FMECA, enhancing predictive capabilities. Furthermore, the hybrid approach improved criticality assessment and failure mode ranking, classifying failure modes into fifteen categories, aiding decision‐making, and applying appropriate risk mitigation measures. Overall, the findings validate the efficacy of the proposed approach in addressing uncertainties and divergent expert judgments for risk assessment in complex systems.
故障模式影响和临界分析(FMECA)被各行各业广泛应用于识别和减少可能出现的故障。尽管 FMECA 被广泛使用,但在决策过程中仍会遇到挑战。本文创建了一个新的基于复原力的模糊 RPN 模型,用于开发 FMECA 方法。该模糊模型通过纳入频率、严重性和检测之外的因素,超越了传统风险优先级数字计算的局限性。这一扩展包括了影响系统成本、可持续性和安全性的因素,从而提供了更全面的风险评估。此外,为了让决策者产生信任感,建议采用一种稳健的评估方法,将三种方法结合起来。在初始阶段,使用模糊层次分析法和灰色关系分析法来确定不同风险因素的主观权重,并解决与构建的模糊推理规则缺陷相关的问题。在第二阶段,采用熵方法来处理计算出的单个权重的不确定性,并捕捉专家的不同冲突观点。所建议的方法通过涉及燃气轮机的案例研究进行了验证。结果表明,不同方法在故障模式优先级排序方面存在显著差异。MTTR 的引入解决了传统 FMECA 的关键缺陷,增强了预测能力。此外,混合方法改进了关键性评估和失效模式排序,将失效模式分为 15 类,有助于决策和应用适当的风险缓解措施。总之,研究结果验证了所提出的方法在解决复杂系统风险评估的不确定性和专家判断分歧方面的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Performance reliability evaluation of high‐pressure internal gear pump 高压内啮合齿轮泵的性能可靠性评估
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2024-05-28 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3585
Yu Tang, Hao Lu, Zhencai Zhu, Zhiyuan Shi, Beilian Xu
With the development of the high‐end equipment technology, the performance requirements of the internal gear pump (IGP) under high pressure are also increasing. However, the increase of working pressure will lead to the instability of gear pump performance in terms of volumetric efficiency, noise, reliability and so on, it is necessary to reasonably evaluate the reliability level of high‐pressure IGP. The reliability analysis of the high‐pressure IGP is carried out from the aspects of flow, noise, and gear strength in this paper. First, the output flow rate and far‐field flow‐induced noise of the high‐pressure IGP were obtained through fluid numerical simulation, and experimental verification was conducted. Then, based on the time‐varying meshing stiffness, backlash function and static transmission error of the gear pair, a nonlinear dynamic model of the internal meshing gear pair was established. The time‐varying meshing force was obtained through the dynamic model of the gear pair, and then the tooth contact stress and tooth root bending stress were obtained. Finally, considering the uncertain factors affecting the performance of the high‐pressure IGP, Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) combined with dendrite network (DD) was used for random response modeling. The performance reliability of the high‐pressure IGP, including output flow rate, far‐field flow‐induced noise, and the strength of gear pair, were estimated based on the fourth moment‐based saddlepoint approximation (FMSA). The reliability analysis results can provide a theoretical basis for the structural optimization design of the high‐pressure IGP.
随着高端装备技术的发展,对内啮合齿轮泵(IGP)在高压下的性能要求也越来越高。然而,工作压力的增加会导致齿轮泵在容积效率、噪声、可靠性等方面的性能不稳定,因此有必要对高压内啮合齿轮泵的可靠性水平进行合理评估。本文从流量、噪声、齿轮强度等方面对高压 IGP 进行了可靠性分析。首先,通过流体数值模拟得到了高压 IGP 的输出流量和远场流致噪声,并进行了实验验证。然后,根据齿轮副的时变啮合刚度、反向间隙函数和静态传动误差,建立了内啮合齿轮副的非线性动态模型。通过齿轮副的动态模型得到了时变啮合力,进而得到了齿接触应力和齿根弯曲应力。最后,考虑到影响高压内啮合齿轮性能的不确定因素,采用拉丁超立方采样(LHS)结合树枝状网络(DD)进行随机响应建模。基于第四矩鞍点近似(FMSA)估算了高压 IGP 的性能可靠性,包括输出流量、远场流诱导噪声和齿轮副强度。可靠性分析结果可为高压 IGP 的结构优化设计提供理论依据。
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引用次数: 0
Intelligent fault diagnosis of machinery based on hybrid deep learning with multi temporal correlation feature fusion 基于多时间相关特征融合的混合深度学习的机械智能故障诊断
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2024-05-28 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3597
Yaqiong Lv, Xiaohu Zhang, Yiwei Cheng, Carman K. M. Lee
With the advent of intelligent manufacturing era, higher requirements are put forward for the fault diagnosis technology of machinery. The existing data‐driven approaches either rely on specialized empirical knowledge for feature analysis, or adopt single deep neural network topology structure for automatic feature extraction with compromise of certain information loss especially the time‐series information's sacrifice, which both eventually affect the diagnosis accuracy. To address the issue, this paper proposes a novel multi‐temporal correlation feature fusion net (MTCFF‐Net) for intelligent fault diagnosis, which can capture and retain time‐series fault feature information from different dimensions. MTCFF‐Net contains four sub‐networks, which are long and short‐term memory (LSTM) sub‐network, Gramian angular summation field (GASF)‐GhostNet sub‐network and Markov transition field (MTF)‐GhostNet sub‐network and feature fusion sub‐network. Features of different dimensional are extracted through parallel LSTM sub‐network, GASF‐GhostNet sub‐network and MTF‐GhostNet sub‐network, and then fused by feature fusion sub‐network for accurate fault diagnosis. Two fault diagnosis experimental studies on bearings are implemented to validate the effectiveness and generalization of the proposed MTCFF‐Net. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model is superior to other comparative approaches.
随着智能制造时代的到来,对机械故障诊断技术提出了更高的要求。现有的数据驱动方法要么依赖专门的经验知识进行特征分析,要么采用单一的深度神经网络拓扑结构进行自动特征提取,但都存在一定的信息损失,尤其是牺牲了时间序列信息,最终影响了诊断的准确性。针对这一问题,本文提出了一种用于智能故障诊断的新型多时序相关特征融合网(MTCFF-Net),它能从不同维度捕捉并保留时序故障特征信息。MTCFF-Net 包含四个子网络,分别是长短期记忆(LSTM)子网络、格拉西亚角求和场(GASF)-GhostNet 子网络、马尔可夫转换场(MTF)-GhostNet 子网络和特征融合子网络。通过并行 LSTM 子网络、GASF-GhostNet 子网络和 MTF-GhostNet 子网络提取不同维度的特征,然后通过特征融合子网络进行融合,从而实现精确的故障诊断。为了验证所提出的 MTCFF-Net 的有效性和通用性,对轴承进行了两次故障诊断实验研究。实验结果表明,所提出的模型优于其他比较方法。
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引用次数: 0
Advances and novel applications in systems reliability and safety engineering (selected papers of the International Conference of SRSE 2022) 系统可靠性与安全工程的进展和新应用(SRSE 2022 国际会议论文选)
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2024-05-27 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3580
Weiwen Peng, Ancha Xu, Jiawen Hu
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引用次数: 0
Fatigue reliability evaluation for impellers with consideration of multi‐source uncertainties using a WOA‐XGBoost surrogate model 使用 WOA-XGBoost 代用模型对考虑了多源不确定性的叶轮进行疲劳可靠性评估
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2024-05-25 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3584
Cheng Qian, Wenjuan Li, Shengxing Wei, Bo Sun, Yi Ren
When using Monte Carlo simulation involving repeated finite element analysis (FEA) to perform fatigue reliability evaluation for an impeller, a variety of uncertainties should be considered to ensure the comprehensiveness of fatigue predictions. These uncertainties include the aleatory uncertainty from the geometric, material and load condition, and epistemic uncertainty from the parameters of the physics‐of‐failure (PoF) model to yield fatigue prediction. However, the latter uncertainty is often ignored in fatigue reliability analysis. And the reliability assessment will become computationally unaffordable and inefficient when there are many random variables involved, as an enormous amount of FEAs are demanded. To address this problem, a Whale Optimization Algorithm‐extreme gradient boosting (WOA‐XGBoost) surrogate model is developed, based on relatively few FEA results obtained using a Latin hypercube sampling (LHS). Its strengths lie in the interpretability of the design variables and effective determination of fine‐tuned hyperparameters. A case study on an impeller is conducted considering uncertainties from 11 input variables, where an efficient XGBoost model with an R2 greater than 0.93 on test set is established using 400 samples from practical FEAs. In addition, the importance analysis indicates that elasticity modulus and density play the greatest impact on the maximum strain, showing a combined importance of 82.3%. Furthermore, the reliability assessment results under fatigue parameter derived from the Median method tend to be more conservative compared to those obtained from the Seeger method.
在使用蒙特卡罗模拟(包括重复有限元分析)对叶轮进行疲劳可靠性评估时,应考虑各种不确定性,以确保疲劳预测的全面性。这些不确定性包括来自几何、材料和负载条件的已知不确定性,以及来自失效物理(PoF)模型参数的已知不确定性,从而得出疲劳预测结果。然而,在疲劳可靠性分析中,后一种不确定性往往被忽视。而当涉及许多随机变量时,由于需要进行大量的有限元分析,可靠性评估在计算上将变得难以承受且效率低下。为解决这一问题,我们基于使用拉丁超立方采样(LHS)获得的相对较少的有限元分析结果,开发了鲸鱼优化算法-极端梯度提升(WOA-XGBoost)替代模型。其优势在于设计变量的可解释性和微调超参数的有效确定。考虑到 11 个输入变量的不确定性,对叶轮进行了案例研究,利用 400 个实际有限元分析样本建立了一个高效的 XGBoost 模型,其测试集 R2 大于 0.93。此外,重要性分析表明,弹性模量和密度对最大应变的影响最大,两者的重要性之和达到 82.3%。此外,与 Seeger 方法相比,中值法得出的疲劳参数下的可靠性评估结果趋于保守。
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引用次数: 0
A decoupling method for analyzing foldover designs 分析折叠设计的解耦方法
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2024-05-23 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3586
Yngvild Hole Hamre, John Sølve Tyssedal
Foldover designs often have attractive properties. Among these is that the effects can be divided into two orthogonal subspaces, one for odd effects and one for even effects. In this paper, we introduce a new method for analyzing foldover designs called the decoupling method that exploits this trait. Utilizing mirror image pair runs, two new responses are created, where each of them is only affected by effects in one of the orthogonal subspaces. Thereby the analysis of odd and even effects can be performed in two independent steps, enabling use of standard statistical procedures and formal testing of the presence of higher‐order interactions. The method is demonstrated on real data from a foldover of a 12‐run Plackett‐Burman (PB) design, and further evaluated through a simulation study, in which the decoupling method is compared to existing analysis methods. To get a thorough understanding of the properties, both a PB design and an OMARS design are used, and different design sizes and heredity scenarios considered. The method is especially suited for screening, as it yields high power for detecting the active effects.
折叠设计通常具有吸引人的特性。其中,效果可分为两个正交子空间,一个用于奇数效果,另一个用于偶数效果。在本文中,我们介绍了一种分析折叠设计的新方法--解耦法,该方法利用了这一特性。利用镜像配对运行,创建两个新的响应,其中每个响应只受其中一个正交子空间中效应的影响。因此,奇数效应和偶数效应的分析可以分两个独立步骤进行,从而可以使用标准统计程序,并对是否存在高阶交互作用进行正式测试。该方法在 12 次普拉克特-伯曼(PB)设计的折叠真实数据上进行了演示,并通过模拟研究进行了进一步评估,在模拟研究中,去耦方法与现有的分析方法进行了比较。为了全面了解该方法的特性,我们同时使用了 PB 设计和 OMARS 设计,并考虑了不同的设计规模和遗传情况。该方法特别适用于筛选,因为它能产生很高的检测活性效应的能力。
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引用次数: 0
Evidence‐based fault tree analysis of the hydraulic system in CNC machine tools 基于证据的数控机床液压系统故障树分析
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2024-05-20 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3581
Hong‐Xia Chen, Sui‐Xin Xie, Jun‐Feng Zhang, Wang‐Hao Chen, Bo Niu, Jiao‐Teng Zhang
The hydraulic system is an integral part of CNC machine tools. In analyzing the reliability of machine tool hydraulic systems, their failures are influenced by both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. This paper utilizes the fault tree analysis method to address failure modes subject to epistemic uncertainty, using the interval rough number scoring method to evaluate the probability of such failures occurring. The resulting reliability calculation is termed as “subjective reliability”. For failure modes influenced by aleatory uncertainty, objective data combined with the Dempster–Shafer evidence theory is used to determine their failure probability, with the corresponding reliability calculation referred to as “objective reliability”. Finally, a comprehensive calculation of both subjective and objective reliability is conducted to determine the overall reliability of the hydraulic system, along with the ranking of the importance of basic events of fault tree. This methodology covers scenarios with small samples, sufficient data, and their combinations, offering extensive application prospects.
液压系统是数控机床不可分割的一部分。在分析机床液压系统的可靠性时,其故障会受到已知不确定性和认识不确定性的影响。本文利用故障树分析方法来处理受认识不确定性影响的故障模式,并使用区间粗略数评分法来评估此类故障发生的概率。由此计算出的可靠性称为 "主观可靠性"。对于受已知不确定性影响的失效模式,则采用与 Dempster-Shafer 证据理论相结合的客观数据来确定其失效概率,相应的可靠性计算称为 "客观可靠性"。最后,对主观可靠性和客观可靠性进行综合计算,确定液压系统的整体可靠性,以及故障树基本事件的重要性排序。该方法涵盖了小样本、充足数据及其组合的情况,具有广泛的应用前景。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal step stress accelerated degradation tests with the bivariate inverse Gaussian process 采用双变量反高斯过程的最佳阶跃应力加速降解试验
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2024-05-20 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3583
Liang Qu, Jin Li, Xiujie Zhao, Min Zhang, Zhenyu Lv
Step‐stress accelerated degradation test (SSADT) has become a prevailing approach to lifetime assessment for highly reliable products. In practice, many products suffer from multiple degradation processes that significantly contribute to failures. In this paper, we investigate the optimal SSADT plans for products subject to two dependent degradation characteristics modeled by a bivariate inverse Gaussian process. The drift parameter of each process is assumed to be influenced by a common stress factor. A bivariate Birnbaum‐Saunders (BVBS)‐type distribution is employed to approximate the lifetime distribution and facilitate the derivation of the objective function. The optimal plans are prescribed under three common optimality criteria in the presence of constraints on test units and inspections. A revisited example of fatigue crack is then presented to demonstrate the proposed methods. Finally, the sensitivity of the SSADT plans is studied, and the results exhibit fair robustness of the optimal plans.
阶跃应力加速降解试验(SSADT)已成为评估高可靠性产品寿命的普遍方法。在实践中,许多产品都存在多种降解过程,而这些降解过程是导致产品失效的重要原因。在本文中,我们研究了由双变量反高斯过程建模的两种依赖性降解特征的产品的最佳 SSADT 方案。假定每个过程的漂移参数都受共同应力因子的影响。采用双变量 Birnbaum-Saunders (BVBS) 型分布来近似寿命分布,便于推导目标函数。在存在测试单元和检查约束的情况下,根据三个共同的最优性标准规定了最优计划。然后,以疲劳裂纹为例对所提出的方法进行了演示。最后,研究了 SSADT 计划的敏感性,结果表明最优计划具有公平的鲁棒性。
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引用次数: 0
CCZM‐based fatigue analysis and reliability assessment for wind turbine blade adhesive joints considering parameter uncertainties 考虑参数不确定性的基于 CCZM 的风力涡轮机叶片粘接接头疲劳分析和可靠性评估
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2024-05-19 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3564
Zheng Liu, Haodong Liu, Zhenjiang Shao, Jinlong Liang, Ruizhi Tang
Wind turbine blades are complex structures composed of multiple bonded components. The fatigue performance of these adhesive joints is crucial for ensuring operational safety over the blade's lifespan. Traditional structural fatigue analysis methods are inadequate for evaluating the fatigue properties of these joints due to the unique characteristics of adhesive materials. Variations in material and dimensional parameters, as well as fluctuating operational loads, further complicate the fatigue analysis of adhesive joints in wind turbine blades. To tackle this issue, this study introduces a fatigue analysis and reliability assessment method for the adhesive joints of wind turbine blades, employing the Cyclic Cohesive Zone Model (CCZM) and accounting for parameter uncertainties. Specifically, a novel methodology for fatigue analysis based on the CCZM is presented. The methodology is programmatically implemented to obtain a fatigue life dataset through multiple simulations, considering uncertainties in material parameters, adhesive dimensions, and loads. Subsequently, a fatigue reliability model is formulated to evaluate the fatigue reliability of adhesive joints in wind turbine blades under different parameter conditions, and the sensitivity of fatigue reliability to each parameter is investigated. The findings offer valuable insights for improving the safety and reliability of adhesive structures in wind turbine blades.
风力涡轮机叶片是由多个粘接部件组成的复杂结构。这些粘合接头的疲劳性能对于确保叶片在整个使用寿命期间的运行安全至关重要。由于粘合材料的独特特性,传统的结构疲劳分析方法不足以评估这些接头的疲劳性能。材料和尺寸参数的变化以及运行载荷的波动,使风力涡轮机叶片粘合接头的疲劳分析变得更加复杂。为解决这一问题,本研究采用循环粘合区模型 (CCZM),并考虑到参数的不确定性,介绍了风力涡轮机叶片粘合接头的疲劳分析和可靠性评估方法。具体而言,本文介绍了一种基于 CCZM 的新型疲劳分析方法。考虑到材料参数、粘合剂尺寸和载荷的不确定性,该方法通过程序实现,通过多次模拟获得疲劳寿命数据集。随后,建立了一个疲劳可靠性模型,用于评估不同参数条件下风力涡轮机叶片中粘合接头的疲劳可靠性,并研究了疲劳可靠性对各参数的敏感性。研究结果为提高风力涡轮机叶片中粘接结构的安全性和可靠性提供了有价值的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Selection of the level of vibration signal decomposition and mother wavelets to determine the level of failure severity in spur gearboxes 选择振动信号分解级别和母波来确定正齿轮箱的故障严重程度
IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q2 Engineering Pub Date : 2024-05-19 DOI: 10.1002/qre.3578
Antonio Pérez‐Torres, René-Vinicio Sánchez, Susana Barceló‐Cerdá
Spur gearboxes are an integral component in the operation of rotary machines. Hence, the early determination of the severity level of a failure is crucial. This manuscript delineates a methodology for selecting essential mother wavelets and filters from the wavelet transform (WT) to process the vibration signal within the time‐frequency domain, aiming to ascertain the severity level of failures in spur gearboxes. Initially, information is garnered from the gearbox through vibration signals in the time domain, utilising six accelerometers. Subsequently, the signal is partitioned into various levels, and information from each level is extracted using diverse mother wavelets and their respective filters. The signal is segmented into sub‐bands, from which the condition state is ascertained using an energy operator. After that, the appropriate level of wave decomposition is determined through ANOVA tests and post‐hoc Tukey analyses, evaluating performance in failure classification via the Random Forest (RF) model. Upon establishing the decomposition level, the analysis proceeds to identify which mother wavelets and filters are most suitable for determining the severity level of different types of failure in spur gearboxes. Moreover, this study investigates the impact of sensor positioning and inclination on acquiring the vibration signal. This aspect is explored through factorial ANOVA tests and multiple comparisons of the data derived from the sensors. The RF classification model achieved exceedingly favourable results (accuracy 96% and AUC 98%), with minimal practical influence from the positioning and inclination of a sensor, thereby affirming the proposed methodology's suitability for this type of analysis.
正齿轮箱是旋转机械运行中不可或缺的部件。因此,尽早确定故障的严重程度至关重要。本手稿阐述了一种从小波变换 (WT) 中选择基本母波和滤波器的方法,以处理时频域内的振动信号,从而确定正齿轮箱故障的严重程度。首先,利用六个加速度计通过时域振动信号收集齿轮箱的信息。随后,将信号划分为不同的级别,并使用不同的母小波及其各自的滤波器提取每个级别的信息。信号被分割成子带,并利用能量算子从中确定状态。然后,通过方差分析测试和事后 Tukey 分析确定适当的波分解级别,并通过随机森林(RF)模型评估故障分类的性能。在确定分解级别后,分析将继续确定哪些母小波和滤波器最适合用于确定正齿轮箱中不同类型故障的严重程度。此外,本研究还探讨了传感器定位和倾斜度对获取振动信号的影响。通过对传感器数据进行因子方差分析测试和多重比较,对这方面进行了探讨。射频分类模型取得了非常理想的结果(准确率 96%,AUC 98%),传感器的定位和倾斜度对其实际影响极小,从而肯定了所提出的方法适用于此类分析。
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引用次数: 0
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Quality and Reliability Engineering International
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