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One health review of recent Salmonella dynamics and human health outcomes in the United States. 最近沙门氏菌动态和人类健康结果在美国的一项健康审查。
IF 0.9 4区 医学 Q4 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2025-07-07 Epub Date: 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2025.1416
Geoffrey Kangogo, Lavanya Sankaran, Mitesh Rajpurohit, Kate E Trout

This review assessed the combined impact of poultry production, climate variability, and agricultural environments on human salmonellosis risk across the United States. It considers whether regions with both high poultry production and notable climate variability show amplified infection patterns and whether environmental transmission pathways are becoming more prominent alongside direct poultry exposure. A comprehensive systematic literature review in PubMed was conducted following PRISMA guidelines for studies published between 2011 and 2025 addressing Salmonella in relation to human incidence, poultry processing and environmental exposure. Our search yielded 22 studies that met the inclusion criteria and it included a range of methods such as surveillance, epidemiological modeling, and intervention research across different U.S. regions. The key analytical variables included were serotype diversity, seasonal and regional distribution, antimicrobial resistance, and climate-related environmental transmission. The findings revealed significant geographic overlap between areas of intensive poultry production and high salmonellosis rates, especially in the southern states. A rise in multidrug-resistant serovars, such as S. infantis in poultry products, was found. Seasonal contamination patterns showed chicken cuts peaking in contamination during late winter, in contrast to the summer peak of human cases. We also observed that temperature extremes and heavy precipitation were linked to increased environmental contamination, particularly of water sources, and higher human exposure risk. These conditions also influenced serotype prevalence and the distribution of resistance genes. As a result, there is a need for integrated One Health strategies that should include adaptive poultry management, climate-responsive environmental monitoring with a focus on serotype-specific risk assessment to reduce the overall public health impact of Salmonella.

本综述评估了家禽生产、气候变化和农业环境对美国人类沙门氏菌病风险的综合影响。它考虑禽类产量高和气候变化明显的地区是否显示出放大的感染模式,以及除了直接接触家禽外,环境传播途径是否变得更加突出。根据PRISMA指南,对2011年至2025年间发表的关于沙门氏菌与人类发病率、家禽加工和环境暴露之间关系的研究进行了全面系统的文献综述。我们的搜索产生了22项符合纳入标准的研究,其中包括一系列方法,如美国不同地区的监测、流行病学建模和干预研究。主要分析变量包括血清型多样性、季节和地区分布、抗菌素耐药性和气候相关环境传播。调查结果显示,集约化家禽生产地区与沙门氏菌病高发地区之间存在显著的地理重叠,特别是在南部各州。发现了多重耐药血清型的增加,如家禽产品中的婴儿链球菌。季节性污染模式显示,鸡块污染在冬末达到峰值,与夏季人类病例的峰值形成对比。我们还观察到,极端温度和强降水与环境污染(尤其是水源污染)的增加以及人类暴露风险的增加有关。这些条件也影响血清型患病率和抗性基因的分布。因此,有必要制定综合的“同一个健康”战略,其中应包括适应性家禽管理、适应气候变化的环境监测,重点是针对血清型的风险评估,以减少沙门氏菌对公共卫生的总体影响。
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引用次数: 0
A spatial lag model analysis of lung cancer incidence and satellite-derived data on air pollution in Thailand from 2020 to 2023. 2020年至2023年泰国肺癌发病率的空间滞后模型分析和空气污染卫星数据。
IF 0.9 4区 医学 Q4 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2025-07-07 Epub Date: 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2025.1424
Wasana Silangam, Amornrat Luenam

This study aimed at investigating the association between satellite-based remotely sensed data on particulate matter with diameters less than 2.5 microns (PM2.5), sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and carbon monoxide (CO) on the one hand, with the incidence of lung cancer in Thailand on the other. Regression analyses on a nationwide dataset comprising 604,460 confirmed cases reported between 2020 and 2023 were conducted using the Spatial Lag Model (SLM) to assess the relationship between the ambient air pollutants and lung cancer incidence. The results revealed that provinces with the highest cancer incidence rates were consistently found to be located in the eastern part of north-eastern Thailand and the far North as well as some provinces in the South. The SLM accounted for a moderate proportion of variance in lung cancer incidence, with R² values ranging from 0.1548 to 0.1755 over the study period. PM2.5 concentrations were positively and significantly associated with incidence rates each year, an effect increasing from 2020 (0.2160, p=0.0075) to 2023 (0.3096, p=0.0102). These findings highlight the potential of satellite-based air quality data, particularly PM2.5 for predicting and monitoring lung cancer incidence, thereby supporting evidence- based public health planning and environmental policy in Thailand. The results add empirical evidence to the growing body of literature demonstrating the public health consequences of ambient air pollution.

本研究旨在探讨直径小于2.5微米的颗粒物(PM2.5)、二氧化硫(SO2)、二氧化氮(NO2)和一氧化碳(CO)的卫星遥感数据与泰国肺癌发病率之间的关系。利用空间滞后模型(SLM)对2020年至2023年报告的604460例确诊病例的全国数据集进行回归分析,评估环境空气污染物与肺癌发病率之间的关系。研究结果显示,癌症发病率最高的省份一直位于泰国东北部的东部、最北部以及南部的一些省份。在研究期间,SLM占肺癌发病率方差的中等比例,R²值在0.1548至0.1755之间。PM2.5浓度与每年的发病率呈显著正相关,从2020年(0.2160,p=0.0075)到2023年(0.3096,p=0.0102),其影响逐渐增加。这些发现突出了基于卫星的空气质量数据,特别是PM2.5数据在预测和监测肺癌发病率方面的潜力,从而支持泰国基于证据的公共卫生规划和环境政策。这些结果为越来越多的文献提供了经验证据,证明了环境空气污染对公众健康的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Venomous snakebite risk and its implications in Zacatecas State, Mexico 2007-2017. 2007-2017年墨西哥萨卡特卡斯州毒蛇咬伤风险及其影响
IF 0.9 4区 医学 Q4 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2025-07-07 Epub Date: 2025-11-05 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2025.1404
Jesús Lenin Lara-Galván, Manuel Montesino-San Martín, Xabier Herrero Otero, Juan Felipe Martínez-Montoya, José Jesús Sigala-Rodríguez, Ana Márcia Barbosa

Zacatecas is a Mexican state from where there are few studies about biodiversity, venomous ophidians and people's experience of snakebites. In the state, there are 12 species of venomous snakes distributed in three genera: Crotalus, Micruroides and Micrurus, which could represent some risk for the locals. The objective of this study was to make use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and programming to determine the relationship between population variables and the number of snakebites registered by the Zacatecas Health Services (SSZ) from 2007 to 2017 at the municipal level. Climatic, social and biological variables were used to gain a better understanding of the situation. It was found that men working in livestock breeding, agriculture, subsistence hunting or mining are more vulnerable, especially if older than 65. The municipalities of Concepción del Oro, Villa de Cos, El Plateado de Joaquín Amaro, Loreto and Ojocaliente exhibit the highest risk, while special monitoring must be conducted in Guadalupe, Fresnillo and Zacatecas due to their high population density, as well as in Valparaíso on account of its rich venomous ophidian fauna. Additionally, it is suggested to carry out preventive actions and detailed data gathering about snakebites to guarantee information quality. This study constitutes the first formal, detailed work about the epidemiological panorama of envenoming caused by the bite of a snake (ophidiotoxicosis) in Zacatecas from which further investigation and modelling may derive.

萨卡特卡斯是墨西哥的一个州,在那里很少有关于生物多样性、有毒毒蛇和人们被蛇咬伤的经历的研究。在这个州,有12种毒蛇分布在三个属:Crotalus, Micruroides和Micrurus,这对当地人来说可能会带来一些风险。本研究的目的是利用地理信息系统(GIS)和程序设计来确定2007年至2017年萨卡特卡斯卫生服务(SSZ)在市级登记的人口变量与蛇咬伤数量之间的关系。气候、社会和生物变量被用来更好地了解情况。研究发现,从事牲畜养殖、农业、自给狩猎或采矿工作的男性更容易受到伤害,尤其是年龄超过65岁的男性。Concepción del Oro、Villa de Cos、Joaquín Amaro、Loreto和Ojocaliente市的风险最高,而瓜达卢佩、Fresnillo和Zacatecas市必须进行特别监测,因为它们的人口密度高,Valparaíso市因其丰富的有毒蛇群而必须进行特别监测。建议做好蛇咬伤的预防措施和详细的数据收集工作,保证信息质量。这项研究构成了萨卡特卡斯州由蛇咬伤(蛇毒中毒)引起的中毒的流行病学全景的第一个正式的,详细的工作,从进一步的调查和建模可以得出。
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引用次数: 0
Integration of accelerometers, global positioning systems (GPS) and geographical information systems (GIS) for measuring physical activity. 整合加速计、全球定位系统(GPS)和地理信息系统(GIS)来测量身体活动。
IF 0.9 4区 医学 Q4 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2025-07-07 Epub Date: 2025-10-21 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2025.1382
Lucian Bezuidenhout, Warren Miller, Conran Joseph, David Moulaee Conradsson

We tested the feasibility of integrating Actigraph accelerometers (AG), Global Positioning Systems (GPS) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to explore the physical activity in 26 healthy adults and 7 post-stroke individuals. The study subjects wore AG and GPS devices for 7 days. Feasibility outcomes were participants' experience of using these devices and data quality regarding i) valid and synchronized data between the AG and GPS; ii) GPS data distribution among participants living in areas characterized by differently developed built environments; and iii) time and intensity of physical activity in and outside the home. There were >10 hours of synchronized data between the devices and the majority (94%) of participants, irrespective of group, did not report any problems using the AG or GPS. Individuals living in low-density built environment had a higher percentage of GPS points closer to the home compared to those living in areas with high-density built environment where GPS scattering occurred. Although methodological challenges regarding scattering and GPS signal loss in densely built environment in urban areas, the results support the overall feasibility of integrating AG, GPS and GIS to investigate physical activity behaviour.

我们测试了结合Actigraph加速度计(AG)、全球定位系统(GPS)和地理信息系统(GIS)来探索26名健康成人和7名脑卒中后个体身体活动的可行性。研究对象佩戴AG和GPS设备7天。可行性结果是参与者使用这些设备的经验和数据质量,1)AG和GPS之间的有效和同步数据;ii)全球定位系统数据在不同建成环境地区的分布情况;3)家庭内外身体活动的时间和强度。这些设备之间的数据同步时间长达10小时,而大多数(94%)的参与者,不管他们是哪一组,都没有报告使用AG或GPS有任何问题。生活在低密度建筑环境中的个体比生活在高密度建筑环境中发生GPS散射的个体在离家较近的地方拥有更高的GPS点百分比。尽管在城市地区密集建筑环境中存在散射和GPS信号损失方面的方法挑战,但研究结果支持将AG、GPS和GIS集成在一起调查身体活动行为的总体可行性。
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引用次数: 0
Advanced analysis of depression tendency in China: an investigation of environmental and social factors based on geographical and temporal weighted regression. 中国抑郁趋势的高级分析:基于地理和时间加权回归的环境和社会因素调查。
IF 1 4区 医学 Q4 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2025-07-07 Epub Date: 2025-07-21 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2025.1385
Yanhong Xu, Zhilin Hong, Huimei Lin, Xiaofeng Huang

The spatiotemporal distribution of depressive tendencies across China from 2011 to 2022 was investigated using the Baidu Depression Search Index (BDSI). We examined key influencing natural factors, such as water pollution, air pollution, and deforestation, along with economic indicators, such as gross domestic product per capita, disposable income per capita, and health professionals per 10,000 population. Geographical and Temporal Weighted Regression (GTWR) was applied to capture the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the BDSI determinants. The results revealed significant regional disparities, with the China's eastern region consistently exhibiting the highest values reflecting heightened mental health concerns, while the western region were found to have the lowest. The BDSI trends followed different trajectories, all of which peaked in 2019 before a sharp decline in 2020. Water pollution transitioned from negative to positive influence in the East, while deforestation exhibited regionally variable effects. Air pollution, peaking in 2019 and 2022, demonstrated the highest impact variability. The economic indicators showed complex regional and temporal patterns underscoring the need for tailored interventions. Together, these findings provided critical insights into the intricate interplay between environmental, economic, and healthcare factors in shaping mental health that highlighted the necessity of region-specific policies to mitigate depressive tendencies and enhance public mental well-being. These research results offer targeted recommendations for regionally adaptive mental health strategies across China.

采用百度抑郁搜索指数(BDSI)分析了2011 - 2022年中国抑郁倾向的时空分布特征。我们研究了主要的影响自然因素,如水污染、空气污染和森林砍伐,以及经济指标,如人均国内生产总值、人均可支配收入和每万人口中的卫生专业人员。采用地理和时间加权回归(GTWR)来捕捉BDSI决定因素的时空异质性。结果显示了显著的地区差异,中国东部地区一直表现出最高的值,反映了人们对心理健康的高度关注,而西部地区则表现出最低的值。BDSI趋势遵循不同的轨迹,所有这些趋势都在2019年达到顶峰,然后在2020年急剧下降。东部地区水污染的影响由负向正转变,而森林砍伐的影响则表现出区域差异。空气污染在2019年和2022年达到峰值,表现出最高的影响变异性。经济指标显示出复杂的区域和时间格局,强调需要采取有针对性的干预措施。总之,这些发现为形成心理健康的环境、经济和医疗保健因素之间错综复杂的相互作用提供了重要的见解,强调了区域特定政策减轻抑郁倾向和提高公众心理健康的必要性。这些研究结果为中国的区域适应性心理健康策略提供了有针对性的建议。
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引用次数: 0
Associations between rocky mountain spotted fever and veterinary care access, climatic factors and landscape in the State of Arizona, USA. 美国亚利桑那州落基山斑疹热与兽医护理途径、气候因素和景观之间的关系。
IF 1 4区 医学 Q4 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2025-07-07 Epub Date: 2025-07-17 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2025.1390
Yan Lin, Al Ekram Elahee Hridoy, Meifang Li, Zhe Wang, Li Luo, Xiaogang Ma, Zhuoming Liu, Murphy John, Chao Fan, Irene Ruberto, Xi Gong, Xun Shi

Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever (RMSF) is a potentially fatal tick-borne disease historically prevalent in the eastern and southeastern U.S. Since the early 2000s, there has been a notable rise in RMSF cases in the south-western U.S. Despite the documented role of dogs in tick-borne disease transmission, research on the influence of other factors, such as veterinary care access, climatic conditions and landscape characteristics on RMSF incidence is limited. This study investigated the combined impact of these factors on RMSF using county-level temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, land cover, dog populations and veterinary care access in Arizona from 2006 to 2021. Employing a spatial negative binomial regression model, the study revealed significant associations between veterinary care access, precipitation, relative humidity, shrubland, and RMSF incidence across three models incorporating lagged effects (0-month, 1-month, and 2-month) for climatic variables. A key finding was that counties experiencing higher veterinary care access were more likely to report lower RMSF case counts (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 0.9237). The mean precipitation consistently showed the highest positive IRR (1.8137) across all models, indicating its strong influence. In contrast, relative humidity (IRR: 0.9413) and shrubland presence (IRR: 0.9265) demonstrated significant negative associations with RMSF incidence. These findings underscore the importance of veterinary care access, climatic factors, and land cover in shaping RMSF dynamics, particularly in regions with increasing incidence rates.

落基山斑疹热(RMSF)是一种潜在致命的蜱传疾病,历史上流行于美国东部和东南部。自21世纪初以来,美国西南部的RMSF病例显著增加。尽管文献记载了狗在蜱传疾病传播中的作用,但关于其他因素(如兽医护理机会、气候条件和景观特征)对RMSF发病率的影响的研究有限。本研究利用2006年至2021年亚利桑那州的县级温度、相对湿度、降水、土地覆盖、狗的数量和兽医护理的可及性,调查了这些因素对RMSF的综合影响。采用空间负二项回归模型,研究揭示了兽医护理、降水、相对湿度、灌木丛和RMSF发病率在三个模型中存在显著关联,这些模型包含了气候变量的滞后效应(0个月、1个月和2个月)。一项重要发现是,兽医护理可及性较高的县报告的RMSF病例数更低(发病率比(IRR): 0.9237)。平均降水在所有模式中均表现出最高的正IRR(1.8137),表明其影响较强。相对湿度(IRR: 0.9413)和灌木林存在(IRR: 0.9265)与RMSF发病率呈显著负相关。这些发现强调了兽医护理的可及性、气候因素和土地覆盖在影响RMSF动态方面的重要性,特别是在发病率不断上升的地区。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial Bayesian semi-parametric Cox-Leroux modelling of stroke patient hospitalization: aspects on survival. 脑卒中患者住院的空间贝叶斯半参数Cox-Leroux模型:生存方面。
IF 1 4区 医学 Q4 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2025-07-07 Epub Date: 2025-07-21 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2025.1380
Aswi Aswi, Bobby Poerwanto, Nurussyariah Hammado, Nurwan Nurwan, Oktaviana Oktaviana, Siti Djawijah, Susanna Cramb

Survival analysis consists of a set of statistical methods used to analyse data where the outcome variable is the time until an event occurs. When such data are collected across distinct spatial regions, incorporating spatial information into survival models can be beneficial. A common approach is to apply an intrinsic Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) prior to an area-level frailty term to account for spatial correlation between regions. We extend the Bayesian Cox semi-parametric model by incorporating a spatial frailty term using the Leroux CAR prior. The aim was to improve the model's ability to describe stroke hospitalisations at the Stroke Centre Hospital in Makassar, Indonesia with a focus on understanding the geographic distribution of hospitalisations, Length of Stay (LOS) and factors influencing patient outcomes. The dataset was obtained from medical records of stroke patients admitted to this hospital (April 2021-June 2024). Variables included LOS, discharge outcomes, sex, age, stroke type, uric acid levels, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, and diabetes mellitus. Our findings indicate that diabetes, stroke type and the presence of hypercholesterolemia significantly influence recovery rates in stroke patients. Specifically, patients with diabetes had lower recovery, while those with hypercholesterolemia and ischemic stroke patients had faster recovery compared to those with haemorrhagic strokes.

生存分析包括一组用于分析数据的统计方法,其中结果变量是事件发生之前的时间。当这些数据在不同的空间区域收集时,将空间信息纳入生存模型可能是有益的。一种常见的方法是在区域级脆弱性项之前应用内在条件自回归(CAR)来解释区域之间的空间相关性。我们通过使用Leroux CAR先验纳入空间脆弱性项来扩展贝叶斯Cox半参数模型。目的是提高模型描述印尼望加锡中风中心医院中风住院情况的能力,重点是了解住院的地理分布、住院时间(LOS)和影响患者预后的因素。数据集来自该医院入院的脑卒中患者的医疗记录(2021年4月- 2024年6月)。变量包括LOS、出院结果、性别、年龄、中风类型、尿酸水平、高血压、高胆固醇血症和糖尿病。我们的研究结果表明,糖尿病、脑卒中类型和高胆固醇血症的存在显著影响脑卒中患者的康复率。具体来说,糖尿病患者的恢复速度较慢,而高胆固醇血症和缺血性中风患者的恢复速度比出血性中风患者快。
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引用次数: 0
The effects of population mobility on Chinese HIV epidemics in spill-over and influx risks perspectives: a spatial epidemiology analysis. 外溢和流入风险视角下人口流动对中国艾滋病流行的影响:空间流行病学分析
IF 0.9 4区 医学 Q4 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2025-07-07 Epub Date: 2025-09-08 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2025.1384
Yazhen Zhang, Hui Jin

Investigating the spatial effects of population mobility on Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) epidemics provides valuable insights for effective disease control. Data on the incidence and prevalence of HIV and socioeconomic factors from 2013 to 2022 across 31 provinces in China were collected. The Baidu migration index was employed to construct inter-provincial population migration matrices for spatial lag models to evaluate spatial spill-overs and influx risks associated with HIV epidemics macroscopically. This study also analysed the impacts of socioeconomic variables, conducted robustness tests for validation, and performed subgroup analysis stratified by HIV incidence levels. Significant spatial autocorrelation of HIV morbidity was confirmed by finding a positive Moran's I. The spatial lag model indicated that when a given province had a 1-unit increase in HIV incidence, its average outflow would cause a 0.7068-unit incidence rate increment in other destination provinces, while every unit increase of HIV incidence in other provinces would induce a 0.7013-unit HIV average incidence rise in the original one when it played the role of destination on average. Furthermore, higher population density and lower educational attainment were associated with elevated HIV incidence (p<0.001). The robustness of the findings was verified, and subgroup analysis indicated that reasons besides population mobility should be given priority consideration in regions with higher HIV incidence. The risks of population mobility related to the HIV epidemic were quantified, highlighting the necessity of developing effective and acceptable HIV prevention and control strategies specifically tailored for migrant populations.

研究人口流动对人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)流行的空间影响,为有效控制疾病提供了有价值的见解。收集了2013年至2022年中国31个省份的艾滋病毒发病率和流行率以及社会经济因素的数据。利用百度迁移指数构建省际人口迁移矩阵,构建空间滞后模型,从宏观上评价与艾滋病毒流行相关的空间溢出和流入风险。本研究还分析了社会经济变量的影响,进行了验证的稳健性检验,并按艾滋病毒发病率分层进行了亚组分析。Moran’si为正,证实了HIV发病率的空间自相关性显著。空间滞后模型表明,当某一省份HIV发病率每增加1个单位时,其平均流出会导致其他目的地省份的HIV发病率增加0.7068个单位,而当其平均扮演目的地角色时,其他省份每增加一个单位的HIV发病率会导致原省份的HIV平均发病率增加0.7013个单位。此外,较高的人口密度和较低的受教育程度与艾滋病毒发病率升高有关
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation by accessibility index differences of the cross-border potential for general inpatient care in the Ems-Dollart Region, a Dutch-German cross-border area. 荷兰-德国跨境地区Ems-Dollart地区普通住院护理跨境潜力可达性指数差异评价
IF 0.9 4区 医学 Q4 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2025-07-07 Epub Date: 2025-08-08 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2025.1381
Sebastian Specht, Helge Schnack, Andreas Hein

Access to healthcare in border regions is hampered by the very existence of the border and the limitations of cross-border cooperation between healthcare systems. This work examined the status quo of access to inpatient care at a high level of spatial detail and the potential impact of a cross-border cooperation in the Ems- Dollart border Region (EDR), a region located in the northern Dutch-German border area. A cross-border data model of inpatient care for Germany and The Netherlands was created using hospital beds as supply and 1-km² gridded population data as demand. The enhanced the two-step floating catchment area (E2SFCA) algorithm was applied to match supply and demand using road accessibility as intermediary. The model was calculated both for national and cross-border accessibility scenarios, with results standardised against national averages to account for systemic differences between German and Dutch healthcare settings. The resulting maps of spatial access to inpatient care capacity showed that the region has access rates below the national averages, with access rates in The Netherlands showing greater spatial variation than seen in Germany. The border appeared to be less important as cause of low access rates than other factors, such as the presence of the North Sea coast. The model results for cross-border hospital care showed a very local potential with access gains for only 2.2% of the population in the EDR, mostly in The Netherlands. This increase was drawn from wide areas with average and high access rates from both Germany and The Netherlands.

边境地区获得医疗保健的机会受到边界存在和医疗保健系统之间跨境合作的限制的阻碍。这项工作考察了在高水平的空间细节上获得住院治疗的现状,以及Ems- Dollart边境地区(EDR)跨境合作的潜在影响,该地区位于荷兰-德国北部边境地区。建立了德国和荷兰住院护理的跨境数据模型,使用医院病床作为供应,1平方公里网格化人口数据作为需求。以道路可达性为中介,采用改进的两步浮动集水区(E2SFCA)算法进行供需匹配。该模型针对国家和跨境可及性情景进行了计算,并根据国家平均水平对结果进行了标准化,以解释德国和荷兰医疗保健环境之间的系统差异。由此得出的住院病人护理能力的空间可及性地图显示,该地区的可及性率低于全国平均水平,荷兰的可及性率比德国的空间差异更大。与北海海岸的存在等其他因素相比,边界似乎不那么重要,因为它是导致进入率低的原因。跨境医院护理的模型结果显示,只有2.2%的EDR人口获得了非常本地化的潜力,其中大部分在荷兰。这一增长来自德国和荷兰的平均和高使用率的广泛地区。
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引用次数: 0
Integrating agent-based disease, mobility and wastewater models for the study of the spread of communicable diseases. 整合基于病原体的疾病、流动性和废水模型,以研究传染病的传播。
IF 1 4区 医学 Q4 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2025-02-11 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2025.1326
Néstor DelaPaz-Ruíz, Ellen-Wien Augustijn, Mahdi Farnaghi, Sheheen A Abdulkareem, Raul Zurita Milla

Wastewater-based epidemiology was utilized during the COVID-19 outbreak to monitor the circulation of SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing this disease. However, this approach is limited by the need for additional methods to accurately translate virus concentrations in wastewater to disease-positive human counts. Combined modelling of COVID-19 disease cases and the concentration of its causative virus, SARS-CoV-2, in wastewater will necessarily deepen our understanding. However, this requires addressing the technical differences between disease, population mobility and wastewater models. To that end, we developed an integrated Agent-Based Model (ABM) that facilitates analysis in space and time at various temporal resolutions, including disease spread, population mobility and wastewater production, while also being sufficiently generic for different types of infectious diseases or pathogens. The integrated model replicates the epidemic curve for COVID-19 and can estimate the daily infections at the household level, enabling the monitoring of the spatial patterns of infection intensity. Additionally, the model allows monitoring the estimated production of infected wastewater over time and spatially across the sewage and treatment plant. The model addresses differences between resolutions and can potentially support Early Warning Systems (EWS) for future pandemics.

在2019冠状病毒病暴发期间,利用基于废水的流行病学监测导致该疾病的病毒SARS-CoV-2的传播。然而,由于需要额外的方法来准确地将废水中的病毒浓度转化为疾病阳性的人类计数,这种方法受到限制。对COVID-19病例及其在废水中的致病病毒SARS-CoV-2的浓度进行综合建模,必然会加深我们的理解。然而,这需要解决疾病、人口流动和废水模型之间的技术差异。为此,我们开发了一个综合的基于agent的模型(ABM),便于在空间和时间上以各种时间分辨率进行分析,包括疾病传播、人口流动和废水产生,同时对不同类型的传染病或病原体也具有足够的通用性。该综合模型复制了COVID-19的流行曲线,可以估计家庭层面的每日感染人数,从而可以监测感染强度的空间格局。此外,该模型还可以监测整个污水处理厂的受感染废水随时间和空间的估计产量。该模型解决了不同决议之间的差异,并可能支持未来流行病的早期预警系统。
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引用次数: 0
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Geospatial Health
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