Cancer Epidemiology最新文献

Background: High fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) has been indicated as one of the important risk factors for cancers. This study aimed to estimate the disease burden of cancers attributable to HFPG in China from 1990 to 2021 and predict the burden until 2031.

Methods: The data of cancers attributable to HFPG were extracted from Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 project. A joinpoint regression model was conducted to estimate the temporal trends from 1990 to 2021. The effects of age, period, and cohort were estimated by an age-period-cohort (APC) model. Lastly, a Bayesian APC model was employed to predict the disease burden for the next decade.

Results: From 1990-2021, cancer deaths attributable to HFPG in China increased by 232 % (95 % uncertainty interval [UI]: 156-330.77 %), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) increased by 195.4 % (95 % UI: 127.38-289.7 %). In addition, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) for the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) were 0.6364 % (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 0.4234-0.8498 %) and 0.6263 % (95 % CI: 0.3024-0.9512 %), respectively. Among all cancer types, pancreatic cancer had the largest increase in disease burden. The risks of mortality and DALYs increased with age, while showing initial rapid increase with period growth followed by relative stabilization. The cohort effect indicates that males born later had higher risks of mortality and DALYs. Finally, despite a continuous decline in both ASMR and ASDR, the numbers of deaths and DALYs were projected to continue increasing in the next decade.

Conclusions: The disease burden of cancers attributable to HFPG significantly increased from 1990 to 2021 in China, and the numbers of deaths and DALYs would continuously increase in the next decade. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce targeted policies controlling the disease burden.

Background: Breast cancer has been the most frequently diagnosed cancer among women in Taiwan since 2003. While genetic variants play a significant role in the elevated risk of breast cancer, their implications have been less explored within Asian populations. Variant-based polygenic risk scores (PRS) have emerged as valuable tools for assessing the likelihood of developing breast cancer. In light of this, we attempted to establish a predictive breast cancer PRS tailored specifically for the Taiwanese population.

Methods: The cohort analyzed in this study comprised 28,443 control subjects and 1501 breast cancer cases. These individuals were sourced from the Taiwan Precision Medicine Initiative (TPMI) array and the breast cancer registry lists at Taichung Veterans General Hospital (TCVGH). Utilizing the breast cancer-associated Polygenic Score (PGS) Catalog, we employed logistic regression to identify the most effective PRS for predicting breast cancer risk. Subsequently, we subjected the cohort of 1501 breast cancer patients to further analysis to investigate potential heterogeneity in breast cancer risk.

Results: The Polygenic Score ID PGS000508 demonstrated a significant association with breast cancer risk in Taiwanese women with a 1.498-fold increase in cancer risk(OR = 1.498, 95 % CI(1.431-1.567, p=5.38×10^-68). Individuals in the highest quartile exhibited a substantially elevated risk compared to those in the lowest quartile, with an odds ratio (OR) of 3.11 (95 % CI: 2.70-3.59; p=1.15×10^-55). In a cohort of 1501 breast cancer cases stratified by PRS distribution, women in the highest quartile were diagnosed at a significantly younger age (p=0.003) compared to those in the lowest quartile. However, no significant differences were observed between PRS quartiles in relation to clinical stage (p=0.274), pathological stage (p=0.647), or tumor subtype distribution (p=0.244).

Conclusion: In our study, we pinpointed PGS000508 as a significant predictive factor for breast cancer risk in Taiwanese women. Furthermore, we found that a higher PGS000508 score was associated with younger age at the time of first diagnosis among the breast cancer cases examined.

Liver cancer is a major worldwide health concern characterized by increasing rates of occurrence. It ranks as the sixth most prevalent form of cancer and is the third highest contributor to cancer-related fatalities globally. This study aimed to describe the epidemiology of liver cancer in Saudi Arabia and to analyze the factors associated with it. This retrospective medical record review included all the patients diagnosed with a liver cancer from January 2014 to December 2020. The incidence data were obtained and collected from the Saudi Cancer registry. The net survival percentage was obtained in global cancer observatory website of the International Agency for Research on Cancer. There were 3066 occurrences of liver cancer among Saudi Nationals during the years 2014 and 2020. The majority of patients consisted of males, accounting for 2105 individuals, which represents 68.7 % of the total. The predominant morphologies are Hepatocellular carcinoma (2520, 82.2 %), choliangocarcinoma (267, 8.7 %), Adenocarcinoma (5.1 %), and malignant neoplasm (3.4 %). The age-standardized incidence rate for males between 2014 and 2020 varied from 4.0 per 100,000 to 4.8 per 100,000, whilst for females it ranged from 1.5 per 100,000 to 2.4 per 100,000. The age-standardized incidence rate among Saudi nationals is 4.7 cases per 100,000, while the age-standardized mortality rate is 4.6 deaths per 100,000. Liver cancer is a significant global health problem, marked by its high occurrence and typically poor survival rates. By emphasizing risk factors, it enhances the implementation practices that may help to provide appropriate care to maximize favourable outcomes.

Background: Ovarian cancer survival in low- and middle-income countries is lower than in high-income countries, due to disparities in healthcare access and socioeconomic factors. This study aimed to describe trends in ovarian cancer survival in Sergipe, Northeast Brazil, by histological group.

Methods: We analysed data on 948 women aged 15-99 years diagnosed with a cancer of the ovary between 1996 and 2017, in Sergipe, Brazil. One- and five-year net survival were estimated by histological group and calendar periods of diagnosis (1996-1999, 2000-2004, 2005-2009, 2010-2014, 2015-2017) using the Pohar-Perme estimator. Survival estimates were age-standardised using International Cancer Survival Standard weights.

Results: Between 1996 and 2017, one-year and five-year net survival for ovarian cancer were 63.4 % and 37.4 %, respectively. Five-year net survival trends increased from 30.9 % (2000-2004) to 46.8 % (2015-2017). Epithelial type I tumours comprised roughly a quarter of cases, while type II tumours constituted over half. Both types exhibited similar one-year survival, ranging from 67 % to 68.5 % during 1996-2017. However, five-year net survival for type II tumours was remarkably lower at 32.5 %, compared to 52 % for type I tumours.

Conclusion: Despite a minor improvement in five-year net survival over the 22 years, survival for women with ovarian cancer remains unfavourable, particularly for those diagnosed with Type II epithelial tumours, which have remarkably lower five-year survival than Type I.

Background: Distant metastasis in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an important indicator of poor patient prognosis. Identifying patients who are at high risk of metastasis early on is essential for creating personalized treatment plans, yet currently, there is a scarcity of effective predictive tools.

Objective: To investigate the effects of different factors on distant metastasis in HCC patients and to establish a clinical prediction model for predicting distant metastasis in HCC patients.

Methods: Our study retrospectively examined 22,318 patients diagnosed with confirmed HCC from the SEER database. Prognostic factors for developing distant metastases in HCC patients were identified by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Utilizing data from a multivariate logistic regression analysis, we created a nomogram. Its predictive precision was evaluated by analyzing the calibration curve, the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve, decision curve assessment (DCA), and Kaplan-Meier (KM) curve analysis of overall survival. Finally,the nomogram was visualized with an online calculator.

Results: We identified six independent prognostic factors: ethnicity, marital status, tumor size, survival time, surgery, and radiotherapy. The nomogram constructed from these six factors showed good calibration, discrimination, and clinical application value after calibration curve analysis, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and DCA curve analysis. Besides, KaplanMeier survival curves also demonstrated that this nomogram had predictive accuracy.

Conclusion: In this research, a nomogram model was created to accurately predict distant metastasis risk in patients with HCC. This study provides guidance for optimizing individual therapies and making better clinical decisions.

Background: Bilirubin is a potent antioxidant that neutralizes reactive oxygen species (ROS). While previous studies have predominantly focused on the association between total bilirubin and cancer risk, this study evaluates the association of different bilirubin subgroups with cancer risk in men and women.

Methods: Data were derived from the Korean Cancer Prevention Study-II cohort, including 133,630 participants. Over a mean follow-up of 13.5 years, 9876 cancer cases were identified. Serum bilirubin levels (total, indirect, direct) were categorized into sex-specific quartiles and analyzed. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI), along with trend analyses.

Results: In men, a 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in total bilirubin was inversely associated with lung cancer risk (HR: 0.82, 95 % CI: 0.74-0.91), and direct bilirubin showed an inverse association (HR: 0.83, 95 % CI: 0.74-0.93). In contrast, in women, a 1 SD increase in total bilirubin was positively associated with lung cancer risk (HR: 1.15, 95 % CI: 1.00-1.32). Among male smokers, a 1 SD increase in total bilirubin (≥30 cigarettes/day) was inversely associated with lung cancer risk (HR: 0.73, 95 % CI: 0.55-0.97), and a 1 SD increase in direct bilirubin (10-19 cigarettes/day) showed an inverse association (HR: 0.79, 95 % CI: 0.63-0.99).

Conclusions: In men, both total and direct bilirubin levels were inversely associated with lung cancer risk, whereas in women, total bilirubin was positively associated with lung cancer risk.

Background: Few Bladder Cancer (BC) studies have examined the role of area-level variables. The purpose of this study was to examine racial differences in BC survival to elucidate if insurance status and contextual covariates could explain Black disadvantage in survival.

Method: Using the Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard models (sHR), five-year survival time was calculated from the date of diagnosis until the last day of follow-up or the date of death due to BC in Florida 2000-2014 (n = 32,321). Non-BC deaths were considered a competing risk. In all models, individual-level clinical and demographic variables were adjusted for and we included the exposures of interest for Carcinoma-in-Situ (CIS) and Non-Muscle-Invasive BC(NMIBC), separately.

Results: In CIS-Patients, living in neighborhoods with higher levels of segregation was associated with 50 % to 2-fold increase in sHR (medium level segregation sHR= 1.50, 95 % CI: 1.06-2.13; high level segregation sHR= 2.07, 95 % CI: 1.25-3.43). Uninsured CIS patients had more than 2-fold increased sHR compared to those with private insurance (sHR=2.34, 95 % CI: 1.05-5.24). In NMIBC patients, living in areas with level of poverty resulted in 10 % the hazard of death increased when compared to low poverty (high poverty sHR=1.11, 95 % CI: 1.01-1.21). Uninsured and Medicaid covered NMIBC patients had an increased sHR (uninsured sHR=2.05, 95 % CI: 1.62-2.59; Medicaid sHR=1.36, 95 % CI: 1.11-1.67). For both CIS and NMIBC patients, the Black/White survival gap decreased when insurance and contextual variables were included.

Conclusion: This study identified BC survival rates were different for Black and White patients in Florida and found that those observed gaps were, to some extent, linked to broader social factors. We recommend that future cancer studies examining racial disparities incorporate area-level variables to offer a more nuanced understanding of these complex disparities.

Background: Cancer and diabetes are increasingly prevalent, and it is not unusual for an individual to have both conditions at the same time. This occurrence has significant ramifications to the person, the clinical team providing care, and the broader health system.

Research design and methods: For the period 2006-2019, we used national-level diabetes (Virtual Diabetes Register) and cancer (New Zealand Cancer Registry) data on nearly five million individuals over 44 million person-years of follow-up. We used cancer incidence among those with and without prevalent diabetes to project cancer incidence across the 2020-2044 period, using age-period-cohort modelling to account for factors driving trends in cancer incidence.

Results: Cancer rates were highest among those with diabetes for 21 of the 24 most common cancers, and people with diabetes also have faster projected increases in cancer than those without diabetes. The greatest differences in cancer incidence by diabetes status were for uterine, liver, pancreatic and kidney cancers, which all have a strong relationship with obesity. In terms of projected burden, cancers in people with diabetes were projected to more than double from 20,243 to 48,773, a 141 % increase from 2015 to 19-2040-44. Age-standardised cancer incidence was projected to increase 2.4 times faster for people with diabetes.

Conclusions: Our findings reinforce the fact that diabetes prevention activities are also cancer prevention activities, and must therefore be prioritised and resourced in tandem. The projected volume of diabetes and cancer co-occurrence also has important policy implications in terms of workforce development, as well as service delivery.

Purpose: The nationwide Dietary Intake After Diagnosis and Colorectal Cancer Outcomes (PROTECT) study is a prospective cohort study investigating how lifestyle-related factors including dietary intake and physical activity are associated with health-related quality of life (HRQoL), recurrence, and survival after a colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnosis.

Methods: Patients participating in the Prospective Dutch Colorectal Cancer (PLCRC) cohort with newly diagnosed stage I to IV colorectal cancer were recruited for PROTECT shortly after diagnosis, between 2015 and 2022. While patient-reported quality of life, physical activity, and sedentary behavior, as well as body composition data are available from PLCRC, patient-reported measurements in PROTECT included anthropometrics, dietary intake, dietary supplement use, and taste and smell alterations. Clinical data was obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry.

Results: Patients returned baseline questionnaires after a median of 43 days (IQR: 28-59) after diagnosis. At diagnosis, the 974 participants' median age was 65 years (IQR: 58, 72), 59 % were male, 59 % had overweight/obesity, and 28 % stage I, 25 % stage II, 40 % stage III, and 6 % stage IV disease. Dietary supplements more frequently used were multivitamins (35 %), vitamin D (30 %), vitamin C (15 %), and magnesium (14 %). Around diagnosis, changes in taste ability were reported by 6 % of patients, while 2 % experienced changes in smell, and 16 % reported experiencing a dry mouthfeel. In total, 24 % adhered to ESPEN dietary guideline of ≥ 25 kCal/kg/day plus ≥ 1 gram protein/kg/day, while 45 % adhered to international physical activity guidelines.

Conclusion: PROTECT is a unique nationwide cohort of CRC patients with a wealth of lifestyle-related data obtained through patient-reported measurements, of which baseline assessments were presented. PROTECT participants will be followed until deceased or lost to follow-up to collect all clinical outcome data. PROTECT will inform clinical and public health guidelines on physical activity and dietary patterns for improving CRC outcomes and survivorship.

Purpose: Breast cancer exerts a considerable burden on an individual's health, but also impacts society more broadly through lost work productivity. This study aimed to measure the quality of life and productivity burden among Australian females of working age diagnosed with breast cancer in 2022.

Methods: A Markov lifetable model was simulated twice; the initial simulation followed the progression of Australian females diagnosed with breast cancer in 2022 using current population incidence rates, whilst the second simulation hypothetically assumed there were no females living with breast cancer. The difference in the number of life years lived, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs) between the two simulations was estimated. All model inputs were derived from previously published sources. Financial costs attributable to each PALY were estimated utilising the total gross domestic product (GDP) for each equivalent full-time worker in Australia (2022 prices) and in scenario analysis using the human capital approach in terms of wage loss, with discounting of 5 % applied.

Results: Over a ten-year period from 2022 to 2031, it is predicted that breast cancer will result in the loss of 4286 years of life lived and 15,597 QALYs. It is also predicted that 16,403 PALYs will be lost, equating to AU$3.26 billion in lost GDP. Results remain robust, showing limited sensitivity to changes in the inputs.

Conclusion: Breast cancer significantly impacts the health and economic welfare of Australian females of working age. Funding initiatives and programs which accelerate recovery and integration back into the workforce are likely to be economically beneficial.