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2020 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)最新文献

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Learning Environment for Introduction in Discrete-Event Simulation for Design and Improvement of New and Existing Material Flow Systems 为设计和改进新的和现有的物料流系统而引入离散事件模拟的学习环境
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384099
Bastian C. Schumacher, H. Kohl
In this paper, ways are shown how students can be familiarized with executing simulation studies for the design and improvement of new and existing material flow systems using flexible discrete-event simulation (DES) tools. The prototypical app "Production Simulation Application" is described. It combines learning-conducive components that are used to familiarize users with objects, the graphical model buildup, and the use of programming language. Game elements such as levels, badges, and points are shaped to motivate learners to interact frequently. They enable immediate feedback. A test shows that the app has been used repeatedly at short intervals beyond the course. A procedure for experience-based learning for conducting simulation studies is developed, in which a so-called learning factory enables learners to complete a simulation study. It is shown that the developments can contribute to the dissemination of DES and to increasing the planning quality in times of rising complexity of production systems.
在本文中,展示了学生如何使用灵活的离散事件模拟(DES)工具来熟悉执行模拟研究,以设计和改进新的和现有的物料流系统。描述了原型应用程序“生产模拟应用程序”。它结合了有助于学习的组件,用于让用户熟悉对象、图形模型构建和编程语言的使用。关卡、徽章和分数等游戏元素的形成是为了激励学习者频繁互动。它们能够提供即时反馈。一项测试显示,该应用程序在课程之外的短时间间隔内反复使用。开发了一种基于经验的模拟学习流程,其中所谓的学习工厂使学习者能够完成模拟研究。研究表明,在生产系统日益复杂的情况下,这些发展可以促进生态系统的传播和提高规划质量。
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引用次数: 0
On the Use of Simulation-Optimization in Sustainability Aware Project Portfolio Management 模拟优化在可持续意识项目组合管理中的应用
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383941
Miguel Saiz, M. A. Lostumbo, A. Juan, David López-López
Among other variables, uncertainty and limitation of resources make real-life project portfolio management a complex activity. Simulation-optimization is considered an appropriate technique to face stochastic problems like this one. The main objective of this paper is to develop a hybrid model, which combines optimization with Monte Carlo simulation, to deal with stochastic project portfolio management. A series of computational experiments illustrate how these hybrid approach can include uncertainty into the model, and how this is an essential contribution for informed decision making. A relevant novelty is the inclusion of a sustainability dimension, which allows managers to select and prioritize projects not only based on their monetary profitability but also taking into account the associated environmental and/or social impact. This additional criterion can be necessary when evaluating projects in areas such as civil engineering, building and construction, or urban transformation.
在其他变量中,资源的不确定性和限制使现实生活中的项目组合管理成为一项复杂的活动。仿真优化被认为是解决这类随机问题的一种合适的技术。本文的主要目的是建立一种将优化与蒙特卡罗模拟相结合的混合模型来处理随机项目组合管理问题。一系列计算实验说明了这些混合方法如何将不确定性纳入模型,以及这对知情决策的重要贡献。一个相关的新颖之处是纳入了可持续性维度,这使得管理人员不仅可以根据其货币盈利能力,还可以考虑相关的环境和/或社会影响来选择和优先考虑项目。在评估土木工程、建筑施工或城市改造等领域的项目时,这个额外的标准是必要的。
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引用次数: 0
Simulating Re-configurable Multi-Rovers for Planetary Exploration Using Behavior-Based Ontology 基于行为本体的行星探测可重构多探测车仿真
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383998
Justin Jose, Divye Singh, Amit Patel, Harshal G. Hayatnagarkar
For planetary explorations, the space agencies have usually sent single robotic rovers to complete missions. An alternative approach is to send multiple rovers, which can insure against failure of one or more rovers. Planning for a multi-rover mission has its own challenges, and simulations can aid in identifying and addressing such challenges. In this paper, we present an ontology-based approach to simulate a multi-rover planetary exploration mission, with a focus on resilience, adaptation, heterogeneity, and reconfigurability. We present an ontology that describes multiple rovers along with an inventory of their parts shipped with a lander. Our approach shows that having the ontology-based simulations help in complex scenarios such as to loan parts from inventory, and salvaging a damaged rover for good parts.
对于行星探测,太空机构通常只派出一个机器人漫游者来完成任务。另一种方法是发送多个漫游者,这可以防止一个或多个漫游者失败。多漫游者任务的规划有自己的挑战,模拟可以帮助识别和解决这些挑战。在本文中,我们提出了一种基于本体的方法来模拟多漫游车行星探测任务,重点关注弹性、适应性、异质性和可重构性。我们提出了一个本体,描述了多个漫游者以及与着陆器一起运送的零件清单。我们的方法表明,基于本体的模拟有助于复杂的场景,例如从库存中借用零件,以及将损坏的漫游者回收为好零件。
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引用次数: 0
Statistical Analysis of Simulation Output Data: The Practical State of the Art 仿真输出数据的统计分析:实用现状
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383993
A. M. Law
One of the most important but neglected aspects of a simulation study is the proper design and analysis of simulation experiments. In this tutorial we give a state-of-the-art presentation of what the practitioner really needs to know to be successful. We will discuss how to choose the simulation run length, the warmup-period duration (if any), and the required number of model replications (each using different random numbers). The talk concludes with a discussion of three critical pitfalls in simulation output-data analysis.
仿真研究中最重要但又被忽视的一个方面是仿真实验的合理设计和分析。在本教程中,我们给出了一个最先进的介绍,从业者真正需要知道什么是成功的。我们将讨论如何选择模拟运行长度、预热期持续时间(如果有的话)和所需的模型复制数量(每次使用不同的随机数)。讲座最后讨论了模拟输出数据分析中的三个关键缺陷。
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引用次数: 13
Modeling the Relationship Between Food and Civil Conflict 食物和国内冲突之间的关系建模
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384007
Elizabeth P. Reilly, S. Agarwala, Michael T. Kelbaugh, Agata Ciesielski, Hani-James M. Ebeid, Marisa Hughes
We built a system of systems model to better understand the relationship between the agricultural sector, other economic factors, and changes in the expected value of conflict. Our model integrates multiple factors, including food production, food trade, population, and civil conflict, and determines their interdependencies based on shared inputs or outputs. We find that severe food price shocks, precipitated by multiple breadbasket failures, can severely impact a country’s GDP and its ability to purchase and consume a sufficient amount of food, resulting in an increase in civil conflict and related casualties. A sharp population increase, as potentially caused by an immigration surge, was found to have a similar impact, though not as strong.
为了更好地理解农业部门、其他经济因素和冲突期望值变化之间的关系,我们构建了系统的系统模型。我们的模型整合了多种因素,包括粮食生产、粮食贸易、人口和国内冲突,并根据共享投入或产出确定它们的相互依赖关系。我们发现,由多个粮仓失败引发的严重粮食价格冲击,可能严重影响一个国家的GDP及其购买和消费充足粮食的能力,导致国内冲突和相关人员伤亡增加。研究发现,可能由移民激增引起的人口急剧增长也会产生类似的影响,尽管没有那么强烈。
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引用次数: 0
A Simheuristic Algorithm for Reliable Asset and Liability Management Under Uncertainty Scenarios 不确定情景下资产负债可靠管理的一种近似启发式算法
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384044
C. Bayliss, Marti Serra, Mariem Gandouz, A. Juan, Armando Nieto
The management of assets and liabilities is of critical importance for insurance companies and banks. Complex decisions need to be made regarding how to assign assets to liabilities in such a way that the overall benefit is maximised over a time horizon. In addition, the risk of not being able to cover the liabilities at any given time must be kept under a certain threshold level. This optimisation challenge is known in the literature as the asset and liability management (ALM) problem. In this work, we propose a biased-randomized (BR) algorithm to solve a deterministic version of the ALM problem. Firstly, we outline a greedy heuristic. Secondly, we transform it into a BR algorithm by employing skewed probability distributions. The BR algorithm is then extended into a simheuristic by incorporating Monte-Carlo simulation to deal with the stochastic version of the problem.
对保险公司和银行来说,资产负债的管理是至关重要的。需要就如何将资产分配给负债做出复杂的决策,以便在一段时间内使总体效益最大化。此外,在任何特定时间无法支付债务的风险必须保持在一定的阈值水平之下。这种优化挑战在文献中被称为资产和负债管理(ALM)问题。在这项工作中,我们提出了一种偏随机(BR)算法来解决ALM问题的确定性版本。首先,我们概述了一个贪婪启发式算法。其次,我们利用偏态概率分布将其转化为BR算法。然后,通过结合蒙特卡罗模拟,将BR算法扩展为一种近似启发式算法来处理随机版本的问题。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of COVID-19 Epidemics on Bed Requirements in a Healthcare Center Using Data-Driven Discrete-Event Simulation 基于数据驱动离散事件模拟的COVID-19疫情对医疗保健中心床位需求的影响
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384093
J. L. Lay, V. Augusto, Xiaolan Xie, Edgar Alfonso-Lizarazo, B. Bongué, T. Celarier, R. Gonthier, Malek Masmoudi
Bed occupancy ratio reflects the state of the hospital at a given time. It is important for management to keep track of this figure to proactively avoid overcrowding and maintain a high level of quality of care. The objective of this work consists in proposing a decision-aid tool for hospital managers allowing to decide on the bed requirements for a given hospital or network of hospitals on a short-medium term horizon. To that extent we propose a new data-driven discrete-event simulation model based on data from a French university hospital to predict bed and staff requirements. We propose a case study to illustrate the tool’s ability to monitor bed occupancy in the recovery unit given the admission rate of ED patients during the pandemic of Sars-Cov-2. These results give an interesting insight on the situation, providing decision makers with a powerful tool to establish an enlightened response to this situation.
床位占用率反映了医院在特定时间的状况。管理部门必须跟踪这一数字,以主动避免过度拥挤,并保持高水平的护理质量。这项工作的目标是为医院管理人员提出一个决策辅助工具,允许他们在中短期范围内决定特定医院或医院网络的床位需求。在这种程度上,我们提出了一种新的数据驱动的离散事件模拟模型,该模型基于法国大学医院的数据来预测床位和工作人员的需求。我们提出了一个案例研究,以说明该工具在Sars-Cov-2大流行期间监测急诊科患者住院率的康复病房床位占用情况的能力。这些结果提供了对情况的有趣见解,为决策者提供了一个强大的工具,以建立对这种情况的明智反应。
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引用次数: 1
Effects of Terminal Size, Yard Block Assignment, and Dispatching Methods on Container Terminal Performance 码头规模、堆场块分配和调度方式对集装箱码头性能的影响
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384062
Anne Schwientek, Ann-Kathrin Lange, C. Jahn
Given the growth in ship size and increasing demands, it is essential for seaport container terminals to make well-founded tactical and operational decisions. Here, horizontal transport is an important element of container terminals, connecting seaside handling with container storage. An efficient design of horizontal transport, especially the assignment of vehicles to orders, strongly influences the terminal performance. Most existing scientific studies vary only individual parameters or dispatching strategies neglecting different terminal targets. This study approaches this research gap. In a discrete-event simulation model, the influence of various terminal parameters on dispatching strategies is examined, taking into account the terminal targets. The two most influencing terminal parameters, terminal size and yard block assignment to containers, are analyzed in detail. The results show that the best choice of yard block assignment and dispatching method for a given terminal size depends on the combination of both parameters and the aspired targets.
鉴于船舶规模的增长和需求的增加,海港集装箱码头必须做出有根据的战术和运营决策。在这里,水平运输是集装箱码头的重要组成部分,连接着海边装卸和集装箱储存。水平运输的有效设计,特别是车辆的订单分配,对终端的性能有很大的影响。现有的科学研究大多只改变单个参数或调度策略,而忽略了不同的终端目标。这项研究填补了这一研究空白。在离散事件仿真模型中,考虑终端目标,研究了终端参数对调度策略的影响。详细分析了对码头尺寸和集装箱堆场分配这两个最具影响的码头参数。结果表明,在给定码头规模的情况下,堆场块分配和调度方法的最佳选择取决于这两个参数和期望目标的结合。
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引用次数: 0
Real-Time Decision Making for a Car Manufacturing Process Using Deep Reinforcement Learning 基于深度强化学习的汽车制造过程实时决策
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383884
Timo P. Gros, Joschka Groß, V. Wolf
Computer simulations of manufacturing processes are in widespread use for optimizing production planning and order processing. If unforeseeable events are common, real-time decisions are necessary to maximize the performance of the manufacturing process. Pre-trained AI-based decision support offers promising opportunities for such time-critical production processes. Here, we explore the effectiveness of deep reinforcement learning for real-time decision making in a car manufacturing process. We combine a simulation model of a central production part, the line buffer, with deep reinforcement learning algorithms, in particular with deep Q-Learning and Monte Carlo tree search. We simulate two different versions of the buffer, a single-agent and a multi-agent one, to generate large amounts of data and train neural networks to represent near-optimal strategies. Our results show that deep reinforcement learning performs extremely well and the resulting strategies provide near-optimal decisions in real-time, while alternative approaches are either slow or give strategies of poor quality.
制造过程的计算机模拟被广泛用于优化生产计划和订单处理。如果不可预见的事件是常见的,实时决策是必要的,以最大限度地提高生产过程的性能。预先训练的基于人工智能的决策支持为这种时间紧迫的生产过程提供了有希望的机会。在这里,我们探讨了深度强化学习在汽车制造过程中实时决策的有效性。我们将中央生产部分的仿真模型,即行缓冲器,与深度强化学习算法,特别是深度q -学习和蒙特卡罗树搜索相结合。我们模拟了两种不同版本的缓冲区,单智能体和多智能体,以生成大量数据并训练神经网络来表示接近最优的策略。我们的研究结果表明,深度强化学习表现非常好,产生的策略可以实时提供接近最优的决策,而其他方法要么很慢,要么给出质量较差的策略。
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引用次数: 0
A dEVS Simulation Algorithm Based on Shared Memory for Enhancing Performance 一种基于共享内存的dEVS仿真算法
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383948
Román Cárdenas, Kevin Henares, Patricia Arroba, Gabriel A. Wainer, J. L. Risco-Martín
The Discrete EVent System Specification (DEVS) formalism provides a unified method to define any discrete-event system accurately. As the complexity of the system under study increases, the necessity of simulation engines with higher performance rises. In this research, we present a chained DEVS simulator, a DEVS-compliant, function-oriented simulation algorithm that exploits shared memory patterns to improve the performance of sequential and parallel simulations. We also illustrate the positive impact of this novel approach executing a set of DEVStone synthetic benchmarks and comparing a state-of-the-art simulation engine with an updated version that implements the chained algorithm. Results show that the chained simulator introduces up to 40% less synchronization overhead than the traditional simulation approach.
离散事件系统规范(DEVS)提供了一种统一的方法来精确定义任何离散事件系统。随着所研究系统复杂性的增加,对性能更高的仿真引擎的需求也随之增加。在这项研究中,我们提出了一个链式DEVS模拟器,一个符合DEVS的、面向功能的仿真算法,它利用共享内存模式来提高顺序和并行仿真的性能。我们还说明了这种新方法的积极影响,执行了一组DEVStone合成基准测试,并将最先进的模拟引擎与实现链式算法的更新版本进行了比较。结果表明,与传统的仿真方法相比,链式仿真所带来的同步开销减少了40%。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
2020 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)
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