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2020 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)最新文献

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An Agent-Based Model of Common Knowledge and Collective Action Dynamics on Social Networks 基于agent的社会网络公共知识和集体行动动态模型
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383995
C. Kuhlman, S. Ravi, Gizem Korkmaz, F. Vega-Redondo
Protest is a collective action problem and can be modeled as a coordination game in which people take an action with the potential to achieve shared mutual benefits. In game-theoretic contexts, successful coordination requires that people know each others’ willingness to participate, and that this information is common knowledge among a sufficient number of people. We develop an agent-based model of collective action that was the first to combine social structure and individual incentives. Another novel aspect of the model is that a social network increases in density (i.e., new graph edges are formed) over time. The model studies the formation of common knowledge through local interactions and the characterizing social network structures. We use four real-world, data-mined social networks (Facebook, Wikipedia, email, and peer-to-peer networks) and one scale-free network, and conduct computational experiments to study contagion dynamics under different conditions.
抗议是一个集体行动问题,可以被建模为一个协调博弈,在这个博弈中,人们采取有可能实现共享互利的行动。在博弈论背景下,成功的协调需要人们知道彼此的参与意愿,并且这些信息是足够多的人的共同知识。我们开发了一个基于主体的集体行动模型,这是第一个将社会结构和个人激励结合起来的模型。该模型的另一个新颖之处在于,随着时间的推移,社交网络的密度会增加(即新的图边会形成)。该模型研究了共同知识通过局部互动的形成和社会网络结构的特征。我们使用了四个真实的、数据挖掘的社交网络(Facebook、维基百科、电子邮件和点对点网络)和一个无标度网络,并进行了计算实验来研究不同条件下的传染动力学。
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引用次数: 0
A Simheuristic Approach for Robust Scheduling of Airport Turnaround Teams 机场周转团队鲁棒调度的一种近似启发式方法
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383947
Yagmur S. Gök, M. Tomasella, Daniel Guimarans, Cemalettin Ozturk
The problem of developing robust daily schedules for the teams turning around aircraft at airports has recently been approached through an efficient combination of project scheduling and vehicle routing models, and solved jointly by constraint programming and mixed integer programming solvers, organized in a matheuristic approach based on large neighborhood search. Therein, robustness is achieved through optimally allocating time windows to tasks, as well as allocating slack times to the routes to be followed by each team throughout their working shift. We enhance that approach by integrating discrete event simulation within a simheuristic scheme, whereby results from simulation provide constructive feedback to improve the overall robustness of the plan. This is achieved as a trade-off between the interests of each separate turnaround service provider and that of the airport as a whole. Numerical experiments show the applicability of the developed approach as a decision support mechanism at any airport.
最近,通过项目调度和车辆路线模型的有效组合,通过约束规划和混合整数规划求解器联合解决了为机场的飞机返航团队制定稳健的每日计划的问题,并以基于大型邻域搜索的数学方法组织起来。其中,鲁棒性是通过优化分配任务的时间窗口,以及分配空闲时间给每个团队在整个工作班次中遵循的路线来实现的。我们通过在类似启发式方案中集成离散事件模拟来增强该方法,由此模拟结果提供建设性反馈,以提高计划的整体鲁棒性。这是通过在每个单独的转机服务提供商的利益和整个机场的利益之间进行权衡来实现的。数值实验表明,该方法作为决策支持机制适用于任何机场。
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引用次数: 0
On the Use of Simulation-Optimization in Sustainability Aware Project Portfolio Management 模拟优化在可持续意识项目组合管理中的应用
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383941
Miguel Saiz, M. A. Lostumbo, A. Juan, David López-López
Among other variables, uncertainty and limitation of resources make real-life project portfolio management a complex activity. Simulation-optimization is considered an appropriate technique to face stochastic problems like this one. The main objective of this paper is to develop a hybrid model, which combines optimization with Monte Carlo simulation, to deal with stochastic project portfolio management. A series of computational experiments illustrate how these hybrid approach can include uncertainty into the model, and how this is an essential contribution for informed decision making. A relevant novelty is the inclusion of a sustainability dimension, which allows managers to select and prioritize projects not only based on their monetary profitability but also taking into account the associated environmental and/or social impact. This additional criterion can be necessary when evaluating projects in areas such as civil engineering, building and construction, or urban transformation.
在其他变量中,资源的不确定性和限制使现实生活中的项目组合管理成为一项复杂的活动。仿真优化被认为是解决这类随机问题的一种合适的技术。本文的主要目的是建立一种将优化与蒙特卡罗模拟相结合的混合模型来处理随机项目组合管理问题。一系列计算实验说明了这些混合方法如何将不确定性纳入模型,以及这对知情决策的重要贡献。一个相关的新颖之处是纳入了可持续性维度,这使得管理人员不仅可以根据其货币盈利能力,还可以考虑相关的环境和/或社会影响来选择和优先考虑项目。在评估土木工程、建筑施工或城市改造等领域的项目时,这个额外的标准是必要的。
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引用次数: 0
Integrated Simulation Tool to Analyze Patient Access to and Flow During Colonoscopy Appointments 集成模拟工具,分析患者访问和流量在结肠镜检查预约
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383919
Jake Martin, Pushpendra Singh, A. Cohn, Jakob Kiel-Locey, K. Shehadeh, S. Saini, Jacob E. Kurlander
Colonoscopy procedures are key to reducing colorectal cancer incidence and improving outcomes. For this reason, it is important that clinics be designed to maximize access to care and to use clinic time effectively. This paper presents a simulation tool that analyzes different scheduling policies to see how they impact overall clinic operations. By simultaneously simulating both scheduling and operations, the tool can account for more variability and better predict actual outcomes. This tool can be used to inform clinics on what scheduling policies work best for their clinic and help analyze what the trade-offs will be between different policies.
结肠镜检查是降低结直肠癌发病率和改善预后的关键。出于这个原因,重要的是,诊所的设计,以最大限度地获得护理,并有效地利用门诊时间。本文提出了一个模拟工具,分析不同的调度策略,看看他们如何影响整体诊所运作。通过同时模拟调度和操作,该工具可以考虑更多的可变性,并更好地预测实际结果。此工具可用于通知诊所哪些调度策略最适合其诊所,并帮助分析不同策略之间的权衡。
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引用次数: 1
A New Simulation Algorithm for PDEVS Models with Time Advance Zero 时间超前为零的PDEVS模型仿真新算法
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384028
Cristina Ruiz Martin, Guillermo G. Trabes, Gabriel A. Wainer
Discrete Event Systems Specification (DEVS) is a well-known formalism to develop models using the discrete event approach. One advantage of DEVS is a clear separation between the modeling and simulation activities. The user only needs to develop models and general algorithms execute the simulations. The PDEVS simulation protocol is a well-know and widely accepted algorithm to execute DEVS simulations. However, when events are scheduled with time advance equal to zero, this algorithm handles them sequentially. Events that occur at the same time are processed one after the other. This may result in unwanted simulation results. In this work, we propose a new algorithm that assures that the output bag of a model is transmitted only when all the outputs corresponding to a given simulation time have been collected.
离散事件系统规范(DEVS)是一种众所周知的使用离散事件方法开发模型的形式化方法。DEVS的一个优点是建模和仿真活动之间的清晰分离。用户只需要开发模型和通用算法来执行模拟。PDEVS仿真协议是一种众所周知且被广泛接受的执行DEVS仿真的算法。但是,当调度事件的时间提前为0时,该算法将按顺序处理它们。同时发生的事件被一个接一个地处理。这可能会导致不想要的模拟结果。在这项工作中,我们提出了一种新的算法,该算法确保只有在收集到给定仿真时间对应的所有输出时才传输模型的输出包。
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引用次数: 0
Path Generation Methods for Valuation of Large Variable Annuities Portfolio using Quasi-Monte Carlo Simulation 基于拟蒙特卡罗模拟的大变量年金组合估值路径生成方法
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384066
B. Feng, Kai Liu
Variable annuities are long-term insurance products that offer a large variety of investment-linked benefits, which have gained much popularity in the last decade. Accurate valuation of large variable annuity portfolios is an essential task for insurers. However, these products often have complicated payoffs that depend on both of the policyholder’s mortality risk and the financial market risk. Consequently, their values are usually estimated by computationally intensive Monte Carlo simulation. Simulating large numbers of sample paths from complex dynamic asset models is often a computational bottleneck. In this study, we propose and analyze three Quasi-Monte Carlo path generation methods, Cholesky decomposition, Brownian Bridge, and Principal Component Analysis, for the valuation of large VA portfolios. Our numerical results indicate that all three PGMs produce more accurate estimates than the standard Monte Carlo simulation at both the contract and portfolio levels.
可变年金是一种长期保险产品,提供多种与投资相关的福利,在过去十年中非常受欢迎。对大型可变年金组合进行准确估值是保险公司的一项重要任务。然而,这些产品往往有复杂的回报,取决于投保人的死亡风险和金融市场风险。因此,它们的值通常通过计算密集的蒙特卡罗模拟来估计。从复杂的动态资产模型中模拟大量的样本路径通常是一个计算瓶颈。在本研究中,我们提出并分析了三种拟蒙特卡罗路径生成方法,即Cholesky分解、布朗桥和主成分分析,用于大型VA投资组合的估值。我们的数值结果表明,在合约和投资组合水平上,所有三种pgm都比标准蒙特卡罗模拟产生更准确的估计。
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引用次数: 0
Low Altitude Air Defense Training System 低空防空训练系统
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384020
J. Surdu, Dirk Harrington, Jason Black, Tony Lynch, Wyatt Schmitz, Jordan Bracken
The Army has a significant training gap for Stinger gunners and teams. In particular, there is no solution that enables Stinger teams to get credit for successful engagements in large force-on-force exercises if the aircraft are not equipped with MILES detectors, which is apparently usually the case. This paper describes the development of a surrogate Stinger missile that facilitates both home station and deployed force-on-force training. The effort described in this paper resulted in a single device that addresses the training previously addressed by the three other devices, all of which are aging and often irreplaceable. This paper describes the design of the Low Altitude Air Defense Training System (LAADTS), the implementation of the prototype and results, and the future work.
陆军在毒刺炮手和小组的训练上存在很大的差距。特别是,如果飞机没有配备MILES探测器(显然通常是这种情况),没有解决方案可以使毒刺团队在大型武力对武力演习中获得成功。本文描述了一种替代毒刺导弹的发展,该导弹促进了基地和部署部队对部队的训练。本文中描述的努力产生了一个单一的设备,该设备解决了以前由其他三个设备解决的训练,这些设备都是老化的,通常是不可替代的。本文介绍了低空防空训练系统(LAADTS)的设计、样机的实现和效果,以及今后的工作。
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引用次数: 1
Enhancing Scalability of Virtual Metrology: A Deep Learning-Based Approach for Domain Adaptation 增强虚拟计量的可扩展性:一种基于深度学习的领域自适应方法
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383945
Natalie Gentner, A. Kyek, Yao Yang, Mattia Carletti, Gian Antonio Susto
One of the main challenges in developing Machine Learning-based solutions for Semiconductor Manufacturing is the high number of machines in the production and their differences, even when considering chambers of the same machine; this poses a challenge in the scalability of Machine Learning-based solutions in this context, since the development of chamber-specific models for all equipment in the fab is unsustainable. In this work, we present a domain adaptation approach for Virtual Metrology (VM), one of the most successful Machine Learning-based technology in this context. The approach provides a common VM model for two identical-in-design chambers whose data follow different distributions. The approach is based on Domain-Adversarial Neural Networks and it has the merit of exploiting raw trace data, avoiding the loss of information that typically affects VM modules based on features. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated on real-world Etching.
为半导体制造开发基于机器学习的解决方案的主要挑战之一是生产中的机器数量众多,并且它们之间存在差异,即使考虑到同一台机器的腔室;在这种情况下,这对基于机器学习的解决方案的可扩展性提出了挑战,因为针对晶圆厂中所有设备的特定腔室模型的开发是不可持续的。在这项工作中,我们提出了虚拟计量(VM)的领域自适应方法,这是在此背景下最成功的基于机器学习的技术之一。该方法为数据遵循不同分布的两个相同的设计室提供了一个通用的VM模型。该方法基于域对抗神经网络,它具有利用原始跟踪数据的优点,避免了通常影响基于特征的VM模块的信息丢失。该方法的有效性在实际刻蚀中得到了验证。
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引用次数: 0
Pragmatic Logic-Based Spatio-Temporal Pattern Checking in Particle-Based Models 基于语用逻辑的粒子模型时空模式检验
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383908
Andreas Ruscheinski, Anja Wolpers, P. Henning, Tom Warnke, Fiete Haack, A. Uhrmacher
Particle-based simulation is a powerful approach for modeling systems and processes of entities interacting in continuous space. One way to validate a particle-based simulation is to check for the occurrence of spatio-temporal patterns formed by the particles, for example by statistical model checking. Whereas spatio-temporal logics for describing spatio-temporal patterns exist, they are defined on discrete rather than continuous space. We propose an approach to bridge this gap by automatically translating the output of continuous-space particle-based simulations into an input for discrete-space spatio-temporal logics. The translation is parameterized with information about relevant regions and their development in time. We demonstrate the utility of our approach with a case study in which we successfully apply statistical model-checking to a particle-based cell-biological model. A Java implementation of our approach is available under an open-source license.
基于粒子的仿真是对连续空间中相互作用的实体系统和过程建模的一种强大方法。验证基于粒子的模拟的一种方法是检查粒子形成的时空模式是否出现,例如通过统计模型检查。虽然存在用于描述时空模式的时空逻辑,但它们是在离散空间而不是连续空间上定义的。我们提出了一种通过自动将连续空间基于粒子的模拟的输出转换为离散空间时空逻辑的输入来弥合这一差距的方法。用相关地区及其发展的信息对翻译进行参数化。我们通过一个案例研究证明了我们的方法的实用性,在这个案例研究中,我们成功地将统计模型检查应用于基于粒子的细胞生物学模型。我们的方法的Java实现在开源许可下可用。
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引用次数: 2
Business Process Modeling And Simulation With DPMN: Resource-Constrained Activities 使用DPMN的业务流程建模和仿真:资源约束活动
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383915
Gerd Wagner
This tutorial article, which is extracted from (Wagner 2019), shows how to use UML Class Diagrams and Discrete Event Process Modeling Notation (DPMN) Process Diagrams for making simulation models of business processes with resource-constrained activities based on the DES paradigm of Object Event Modeling and Simulation. In this approach, the state structure of a business system is captured by a UML Class Diagram, which defines the types of objects, events and activities underlying a DPMN Process Diagram, which captures the causal regularities of the system in the form of a set of event rules. DPMN Process Diagrams extend the Event Graphs proposed by Schruben (1983) by adding elements from the Business Process Modeling Notation (BPMN), viz. data objects and activities, and, as its main innovation over BPMN, resource-dependent activity start arrows.
这篇教程文章摘自(Wagner 2019),展示了如何使用UML类图和离散事件过程建模符号(DPMN)流程图,基于对象事件建模和仿真的DES范式,对具有资源约束活动的业务流程进行仿真模型。在这种方法中,业务系统的状态结构由UML类图捕获,该类图定义了DPMN流程图底层的对象、事件和活动的类型,DPMN流程图以一组事件规则的形式捕获系统的因果规律。DPMN流程图扩展了Schruben(1983)提出的事件图,添加了来自业务流程建模符号(BPMN)的元素,即数据对象和活动,并且,作为其对BPMN的主要创新,依赖资源的活动开始箭头。
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引用次数: 4
期刊
2020 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)
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