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Predicting Bitcoin Prices Using Sentiment Analysis Results 使用情绪分析结果预测比特币价格
Pub Date : 2022-04-27 DOI: 10.1145/3537693.3537700
Chunze Li
Sentiment Analysis is a technique to determine the tone of a statement using computer software. It is an appliance of a linguistic and computer science intersection that could make a great impact on the business field. Lately, Sentiment Analysis has been used on social media platforms such as Twitter or Facebook to observe the tone of a statement. Examining the tone of tweets using the computer could be time-efficient and precise. SA studies could also be linked to Bitcoin. In this paper, I am using SA results of tweets on a given day to predict changes in the Bitcoin price and its returns. First, I collected the data, which included 31 data points of average sentiment scores and the corresponding 31 Bitcoin prices on the same day. The average sentiment scores were evaluated by VADER from a scale of -1 to 1 (-1 being the statements with the most negative tone, and 1 with the most positive). Then, I used linear regressions to predict Bitcoin price and returns using sentiment scores on the previous day/days. Predicting returns based on sentiments could allow me to find the relationship between Twitter users and Bitcoin and help me better understand the potential challenges. In the end, the predicted price was positively correlated to the sentiment scores the day before. Interestingly, the predicted return was negatively correlated with the sentiment scores and showed less correlation with a M coefficient of -0.86125.
情绪分析是一种使用计算机软件确定语句语气的技术。它是语言学和计算机科学交叉的一种应用,可以对商业领域产生重大影响。最近,情绪分析被用于Twitter或Facebook等社交媒体平台,以观察声明的语气。用电脑检查推文的语气既省时又精确。SA研究也可能与比特币有关。在本文中,我使用某一天推文的SA结果来预测比特币价格及其回报的变化。首先,我收集了数据,包括31个数据点的平均情绪得分和对应的31个比特币当天的价格。平均情绪得分由维德从-1到1进行评估(-1代表最消极的语气,1代表最积极的语气)。然后,我使用线性回归来预测比特币的价格,并使用前一天的情绪得分来预测回报。基于情绪预测回报可以让我找到Twitter用户和比特币之间的关系,并帮助我更好地理解潜在的挑战。最后,预测价格与前一天的情绪得分呈正相关。有趣的是,预测收益与情绪得分呈负相关,M系数为-0.86125,相关性较低。
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引用次数: 0
Is Ethereum's Price Return Determined by COVID-19, Macro-financial, and Crypto Market Factors? 以太坊的价格回报是否由COVID-19、宏观金融和加密市场因素决定?
Pub Date : 2022-04-27 DOI: 10.1145/3537693.3537714
S. A. H. Havidz, Tiffani, Gaby, M. Widjaja
We investigated COVID-19 cases per country, macro-financial, and crypto market factors that might have affected Ethereum's price return in the top three countries of users, which were also affected by COVID-19 (United States, China, and Germany). Feasible Generalized Least Square (FGLS) was used as the methodology and the generalized method of moments (GMM) was tested for a robustness check. The findings revealed that Ethereum price returns were greatly affected by COVID-19 factors. Meanwhile, macro-financial factors (stock indices and gold) had stronger effects on the return of Ethereum price rather than the crypto market.
我们调查了每个国家的COVID-19病例、宏观金融和加密市场因素,这些因素可能会影响以太坊在前三大用户国家(美国、中国和德国)的价格回报,这些国家也受到COVID-19的影响。采用可行广义最小二乘(FGLS)方法,对广义矩量法(GMM)进行鲁棒性检验。研究结果显示,以太坊的价格回报受到COVID-19因素的极大影响。同时,宏观金融因素(股票指数和黄金)对以太坊价格回报的影响强于加密市场。
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引用次数: 0
Factors Impacting on Bitcoin Returns in the Top Three COVID-19 Infected Countries 影响三大COVID-19感染国家比特币回报的因素
Pub Date : 2022-04-27 DOI: 10.1145/3537693.3537707
S. A. H. Havidz, Zefanya Angelita, Ingrid Claudia Calvilus, Junius, Tiffani
Our research investigated the effect of COVID-19 cases (cumulative positive and death cases) on Bitcoin price in the top three infected countries based on WHO (United States, Brazil, and India). Macro-financial and internal factors are employed as the other independent determinants of Bitcoin prices. We utilized feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) alongside generalized method of moments (GMM) for robustness check. The output revealed robustness across different econometric models. The findings unraveled that COVID-19 cumulative positive cases brought positive but insignificant impacts on Bitcoin returns, while its death cases stated the opposite. Macro-financial factors represented by stock indices and gold price imposed that they could be alternative investments to Bitcoin under the uncertain times of COVID-19. Liquidity and volume in respect to return discovery of Bitcoin are imperative instruments, as these internal factors move in the same direction with Bitcoin's demand and return movement. Efficiency in internal factors drives investors’ demand, hence pushing the increase in Bitcoin's return.
我们的研究调查了COVID-19病例(累计阳性病例和死亡病例)对世界卫生组织(WHO)感染最多的三个国家(美国、巴西和印度)比特币价格的影响。宏观金融和内部因素被用作比特币价格的其他独立决定因素。我们利用可行广义最小二乘(FGLS)和广义矩量法(GMM)进行鲁棒性检验。结果显示了不同计量模型的稳健性。研究结果表明,COVID-19累计阳性病例对比特币回报产生了积极但微不足道的影响,而死亡病例则相反。以股指和黄金价格为代表的宏观金融因素,在新冠疫情的不确定时期,可能成为比特币的替代投资。关于比特币的回报发现的流动性和数量是必不可少的工具,因为这些内部因素与比特币的需求和回报运动方向一致。内部因素的效率驱动投资者的需求,从而推动比特币收益的增加。
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引用次数: 1
Stuck Inside a Cloud: Do SaaS business models require a rethink of the traditional approach to public market valuation? 陷入云端:SaaS商业模式是否需要重新思考公开市场估值的传统方法?
Pub Date : 2022-04-27 DOI: 10.1145/3537693.3537743
Toby McCoy
This paper explores the rapid growth in the public valuations of SaaS companies and examines whether this growth can be explained by investment theory. SaaS companies have experienced a remarkable rise in stock market valuations in recent years. Through the construction of a SaaS Index, constituted of 20 publicly traded SaaS companies, the empirical study tests the efficacy of two traditional models of investment theory, The Capital Asset Pricing Model and Fama-French's 3 Factor Model. The Index is used as the basis for these models and additionally is supported by Linear Regression models. Ultimately, the assumptions which underlie these models are shown to be unsuitable for the SaaS Industry due its relative youth and unique characteristics. It then seeks to expand upon existing theory and practice by building a positive argument and highlighting additional possible factors including Growth, Profitability and Enterprise Value/Revenue which exhibit a greater explanatory role in share price movement. This enables the construction of a new model, of a company's revenue growth and Enterprise Value relative to revenue supported by a qualitative narrative which better accounts for the relative growth in the SaaS Index over the observed period. Ultimately, while this new model holds greater explanatory power, the underlying characteristics of SaaS companies such as the subscription model, capital efficiency and ability to scale are important and are more likely to be effective drivers of value into the future.
本文探讨了SaaS公司公开估值的快速增长,并检验了这种增长是否可以用投资理论来解释。近年来,SaaS公司的股票市场估值显著上升。通过构建由20家SaaS上市公司组成的SaaS指数,实证研究检验了资本资产定价模型和Fama-French三因素模型这两种传统投资理论模型的有效性。该指数被用作这些模型的基础,此外还得到线性回归模型的支持。最终,由于SaaS行业相对年轻和独特的特征,这些模型背后的假设被证明不适合SaaS行业。然后,它试图通过建立一个积极的论点来扩展现有的理论和实践,并强调其他可能的因素,包括增长、盈利能力和企业价值/收入,这些因素在股价走势中表现出更大的解释性作用。这可以构建一个新的模型,一个公司的收入增长和企业价值相对于收入的定性叙述,更好地说明了SaaS指数在观察期间的相对增长。最终,虽然这种新模式具有更强的解释力,但SaaS公司的潜在特征(如订阅模式、资本效率和扩展能力)也很重要,而且更有可能成为未来价值的有效驱动因素。
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引用次数: 0
Using Blockchain for Optimal and Transparent Resource Allocation: A Proposed Solution for Fund Allocation: Brief overview 使用区块链进行最优和透明的资源分配:一种建议的资金分配解决方案:简要概述
Pub Date : 2021-04-28 DOI: 10.1145/3466029.3466056
Roxana Voicu-dorobantu, Chibuzor Udokwu, Bogdan Bocșe
The paper presents, in brief, a proposed blockchain-based architecture for optimal resource allocation, specifically financial resources, in a bounded-setting, called game. The solution touches upon actors involved and roles and rules of engagement, while setting the stage for a more complex proposal for future study. The paper is a review, set as a starting point for a more developed solution, which would allow for financial resources peer-sharing in a bounded setting, with automated functions.
简而言之,本文提出了一种基于区块链的架构,用于在有限设置(称为游戏)中进行最佳资源分配,特别是金融资源。该解决方案涉及参与者、角色和交战规则,同时为未来研究更复杂的提案奠定了基础。本文是一篇综述,作为一个更成熟的解决方案的起点,该解决方案将允许在有限的设置中进行金融资源的对等共享,并具有自动化功能。
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引用次数: 0
Clustering and e-Commerce: Towards a Crossroads in a Particular Context: Categorization of Amazon products problematic in intermediation agencies A new context for the use of clustering in e-commerce 聚类与电子商务:在特定背景下走向十字路口:亚马逊产品在中介机构中的分类问题。聚类在电子商务中应用的新背景
Pub Date : 2021-04-28 DOI: 10.1145/3466029.3466697
Richardson Ciguene, Bertrand Marron
In all marketplaces, including Amazon, knowing how to add your product in the most appropriate category is one of the determining factors for its sale. However, this work of categorization remains a rather long process, which requires a lot of research on the platform, without being guaranteed that the category finally chosen is really the best adapted to its product. This becomes even more complex in the case of an intermediation agency like Bizon, which manages hundreds of accounts on Amazon for various clients, where it must add a large quantity of products, making sure to choose the right categories. Moreover, in such a case, the process can require a lot of patience, as it involves multiple exchanges between the seller (the agency's customer), the integrator (the person who manages the customer's account in the agency) and the platform (Amazon), which can slow down the whole process considerably, and consequently, generate possible frustrations. So, this paper introduces our research work which focused on the optimization of this categorization process. More technically, we used thousands of data from our best-selling products to train a clustering model capable of suggesting/predicting the best category for a product based on keywords. This approach has actually enabled us to eliminate the passing of information between the three actors, in this case reducing the process from days to seconds. In the rest of this paper, after a presentation of this new context of using clustering in e-commerce, we make a detailed presentation of the problem and a state of the art. The end of the paper is devoted to the definition of our experimentation protocol and the presentation of the first results.
在包括亚马逊在内的所有市场中,知道如何将你的产品添加到最合适的类别是决定其销售的因素之一。然而,这种分类工作仍然是一个相当漫长的过程,这需要在平台上进行大量的研究,并不能保证最终选择的类别确实是最适合其产品的。对于Bizon这样的中介机构来说,这就变得更加复杂了。Bizon在亚马逊上为各种客户管理着数百个账户,它必须添加大量的产品,并确保选择正确的类别。此外,在这种情况下,这个过程可能需要很大的耐心,因为它涉及到卖家(代理商的客户)、集成商(代理商中管理客户账户的人)和平台(亚马逊)之间的多次交流,这可能会大大减慢整个过程,从而产生可能的挫折。因此,本文介绍了我们针对这一分类过程的优化所做的研究工作。从技术上讲,我们使用来自最畅销产品的数千个数据来训练一个聚类模型,该模型能够根据关键字建议/预测产品的最佳类别。这种方法实际上使我们能够消除三个参与者之间的信息传递,在这种情况下,将过程从几天减少到几秒钟。在本文的其余部分中,在介绍了在电子商务中使用集群的新背景之后,我们将详细介绍该问题和最新进展。论文的最后是实验方案的定义和初步结果的介绍。
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引用次数: 0
The Role of Information Technology and Communication Technology as Online Learning Media 信息技术和通信技术作为在线学习媒介的作用
Pub Date : 2021-04-28 DOI: 10.1145/3466029.3466051
Meiryani, Asl Lindawati, Erick Fernando, K. Deniswara, D. Wahyuningtias
The use of the right learning model greatly affects the success of the learning process between lecturers and students. Learning media can be a vehicle for channeling messages and learning information. Learning media that are well designed will greatly help students digest and understand the course material. IT-based learning media can be in the form of internet, intranet, mobile phone, and CD Room. Its main components include the learning management system (LMS) and learning content (LC). Learning in higher education will always change according to the characteristics of students, learning materials and the ever-evolving environment. This study aims to examine the role of information communication technology in learning. The research method in this research is a quantitative method with a survey method, distributing online questionnaires to information systems lecturers at Bina Nusantara University in Indonesia. This study uses SPSS Statistics 24 software to test the hypotheses built in the study. The data obtained were analyzed by means of a comparative test. The results of the analysis of this study indicate that (1) there is no significant difference regarding the role of information communication technology in learning; (2) Inadequate internet connection; (3) low/inadequate power source; (4) Lack of manpower for teaching and administrative development; (5). Ignorance and low level of computer literacy, (6) The high cost of computer information technology equipment; (7) less time and less interest from lecturers in the use of Information Communication Technology facilities.
正确的学习模式的使用极大地影响着师生之间学习过程的成功。学习媒体可以成为传递信息和学习信息的载体。精心设计的学习媒体将极大地帮助学生消化和理解课程材料。基于it的学习媒介可以是internet、intranet、移动电话、CD Room等。其主要组成部分包括学习管理系统(LMS)和学习内容(LC)。高等教育中的学习总是会根据学生的特点、学习材料和不断变化的环境而变化。本研究旨在探讨资讯通讯科技在学习中的作用。本研究的研究方法是定量法结合调查法,向印尼比那努桑塔拉大学的信息系统讲师发放在线问卷。本研究使用SPSS Statistics 24软件对研究中建立的假设进行检验。所获得的数据用对比试验的方法进行了分析。本研究的分析结果表明:(1)信息通信技术在学习中的作用没有显著差异;(2)网络连接不足;(3)电源低/不足;(4)教学和行政建设人力不足;(6)计算机信息技术设备成本高;(7)讲师使用信息通信技术设备的时间和兴趣减少。
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引用次数: 0
A Study on the Contrastive Effect of Dividend Distribution of Listed Companies 上市公司股利分配的对比效应研究
Pub Date : 2021-04-28 DOI: 10.1145/3466029.3466054
Cuifeng Wu, Wenjie Huang
The best way to distribute dividends has been a puzzle for a long time. Sometimes, when companies have no idea of the dividend distribution, they may select to simply follow the dividend policy of competitive companies. This paper collects the dividend data from companies listed in SHENZHEN stock exchange during the year of 2009-2018, and exams whether the dividends of later distribution company will be affected by the the dividends of former distribution company. The empirical results show that the dividends of company that distributed earlier has a significant positive effect on the dividends of company that distributed later, which means there is a contrast effect of dividend distribution between companies in the same industry. This result can enrich the current researches on the dividend policy and has certain significance for investors and companies.
长期以来,分配股息的最佳方式一直是个谜。有时,当公司不知道股息分配时,他们可能会选择简单地遵循竞争公司的股息政策。本文收集了2009-2018年深圳证券交易所上市公司的股息数据,检验了后分销公司的股息是否会受到前分销公司股息的影响。实证结果表明,较早分配股利的公司对较晚分配股利的公司具有显著的正向影响,即同行业公司之间存在股利分配的对比效应。这一研究结果可以丰富目前对股利政策的研究,对投资者和公司都有一定的意义。
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引用次数: 0
Determinants of Capital Structure: Evidence from China & UK Company Panel Data 资本结构的决定因素:来自中国和英国公司面板数据的证据
Pub Date : 2021-04-28 DOI: 10.1145/3466029.3466044
Jie Lin
The purpose of this study is to find essential determinants in determining the capital structure. In order to find and compare the capital structure of developing countries in China and developed countries, this paper selected 730 listed companies for analysis through Shanghai A-Share and FTSE. From 2002 to 2014, the entire period selected for this study was 13 years, including a crucial period of the financial crisis that erupted in 2008. Since the data is a combination of time series and cross-section, this paper analyzes the panel data by establishing a regression model to find the determinants that influence the capital structure. The dependent variable is leverage, and the independent variables are tangibility, profitability, size, growth opportunities, non-debt tax shield, liquidity. The results of the regression show that both Chinese and British profitability, growth opportunities and liquidity have a negative correlation, and tangibility may have a positive impact on the total debt before the crisis. By comparing the results of each period, we can find that in the financial crisis, the profitability, growth opportunities and non- debt tax shield of the two countries were affected, and they changed from significant to nothing in the capital structure. At the same time, the study clearly shows that liquidity has become an essential variable in capital structure during these selected time periods.
本研究的目的是找到决定资本结构的基本决定因素。为了发现和比较中国发展中国家和发达国家的资本结构,本文选取了730家上市公司,通过上海a股和富时指数进行分析。从2002年到2014年,本研究选择的整个时期为13年,其中包括2008年爆发的金融危机的关键时期。由于数据是时间序列和横截面的结合,本文通过建立回归模型对面板数据进行分析,寻找影响资本结构的决定因素。因变量是杠杆,自变量是有形性、盈利能力、规模、增长机会、非债务税盾、流动性。回归结果显示,中英两国的盈利能力、增长机会和流动性均呈负相关,而有形性可能对危机前的总债务产生正影响。通过比较各时期的结果,我们可以发现,在金融危机中,两国的盈利能力、增长机会和非债务税盾都受到了影响,并且它们在资本结构上从显著变为零。同时,研究清楚地表明,在这些选定的时间段内,流动性已成为资本结构的重要变量。
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引用次数: 0
Design and Development Multi-Verification Protocols of A Digital Signed Document System Using Component-Based Architecture 基于组件架构的数字签名文档系统多验证协议的设计与开发
Pub Date : 2021-04-28 DOI: 10.1145/3466029.3466039
P. Netinant, Siwaphat Boonbangyang, Meennapa Rukhiran
In the digital age, a transformation of a traditional business to an electronic organization becomes widely general. One of the resolutions is an adopted information technology to design and develop software supporting the whole process of organizations. End users enable to access and use digital services anywhere and anytime. Covid-19 has directed us to face a dramatic death of human life. Social distancing is an announcement of avoiding and touching unknown people, including colleagues, lecturers, and students. In this article, we aim to propose the design and development of a digitally signed document system. The system can handle documents of university processes to advance online forms significantly. By providing the digitally signed document system, a documented strategy can integrate users (e.g., general employees, executives, directors, and lecturers) to send electronic documents with proportional high security. The digital signature of user identification can perform via user identification and verification protocols in many methods. The design and development of software models are approached using rapid application development (RAD). RAD is the most compatible with project factors. The software functionaries of the digitally signed document system are decomposed into components for improving software quality. The interface components deliver indicators of a friendly environment of green information technology as well.
在数字时代,传统企业向电子组织的转变变得非常普遍。其中一项决议是采用信息技术来设计和开发支持组织整个流程的软件。终端用户可以随时随地访问和使用数字服务。Covid-19使我们面临巨大的生命死亡。保持社交距离是指避免接触不认识的人,包括同事、讲师和学生。在本文中,我们旨在提出一个数字签名文档系统的设计和开发。该系统可以处理大学流程的文件,大大提高了网上表格的质量。通过提供数字签名文档系统,文档化策略可以集成用户(例如,普通员工、执行人员、董事和讲师),以发送具有相应高安全性的电子文档。用户身份的数字签名可以通过多种方式的用户身份和验证协议来实现。软件模型的设计和开发采用快速应用程序开发(RAD)方法。RAD是与项目因素最兼容的。为了提高软件质量,将数字签名文档系统的软件功能分解为多个组件。接口组件也提供了绿色信息技术友好环境的指标。
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引用次数: 2
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电子政务
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