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Signal Game Analysis between Software Vendors and Third-Party Platforms in Collaborative Disclosure of Network Security Vulnerabilities 软件厂商与第三方平台协同披露网络安全漏洞的信号博弈分析
Pub Date : 2023-03-31 DOI: 10.1155/2023/1027215
Qiang Xiong, Yifei Zhu, Zhangying Zeng, Xinqi Yang
The global network threat is becoming more and more serious, and network security vulnerability management has become one of the critical areas in the national information security emergency system construction. To guide the third-party sharing platforms regarding network security vulnerability management, this work constructs a signal game model comprising third-party vulnerability sharing platforms and software vendors for vulnerability collaborative disclosures. In addition, we analyze the game strategy selection and its influencing factors. The results show that there are two perfect Bayesian equilibria, including separation equilibrium and mixed equilibrium, due to the incomplete lines of information disclosure. The equilibrium state is mainly based on the compression time of the protection period and the existence ratio of the software vendors who develop the patches in the market. This work puts forward some suggestions in terms of the protection period, reputation loss, and relevant laws and regulations.
全球网络威胁日益严重,网络安全漏洞管理已成为国家信息安全应急体系建设中的关键领域之一。为了指导第三方共享平台进行网络安全漏洞管理,本文构建了由第三方漏洞共享平台和软件厂商组成的信号博弈模型,用于漏洞协同披露。此外,还分析了博弈策略选择及其影响因素。结果表明,由于信息披露线不完备,存在分离均衡和混合均衡两种完美的贝叶斯均衡。平衡状态主要基于保护期的压缩时间和开发补丁的软件厂商在市场上的存在率。本文从保护期限、声誉损失、相关法律法规等方面提出了建议。
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引用次数: 1
The Genesis of Uncertainty: Structural Analysis of Stochastic Chaos in Finance Markets 不确定性的起源:金融市场随机混沌的结构分析
Pub Date : 2023-03-30 DOI: 10.1155/2023/1302220
A. Musaev, A. Makshanov, D. Grigoriev
The presented article is methodological in nature and is devoted to the analysis of observation series of financial asset quotation changes in capital markets. The most important feature of these processes is their instability, which manifests itself in high sensitivity to seemingly minor disturbing factors. This phenomenon is well-studied in the theory of nonlinear dynamical systems and is described by models of deterministic chaos. However, for the processes considered in the article, the dynamic instability of the immersion environment is exacerbated by stochastic uncertainty caused by random fluctuations in the pricing process. As a result, describing observation series of quotations of financial assets is difficult because it involves stochastic chaos. This article analyzes and classifies chaotic series of observations to help model and forecast related processes.
本文是一篇方法论的文章,主要对资本市场金融资产报价变化的观察序列进行分析。这些过程最重要的特征是它们的不稳定性,这表现为对看似微小的干扰因素的高度敏感性。这种现象在非线性动力系统理论中得到了很好的研究,并由确定性混沌模型来描述。然而,对于本文所考虑的过程,由于定价过程的随机波动引起的随机不确定性加剧了浸入环境的动态不稳定性。因此,金融资产报价的观察序列由于涉及到随机混沌,描述起来比较困难。本文对混沌观测序列进行分析和分类,以帮助建模和预测相关过程。
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引用次数: 1
Integrating Theory with Education about Genetic Risk for Alcohol Use Disorder: The Effects of a Brief Online Educational Tool on Elements of the Health Belief Model. 将酒精使用障碍遗传风险的理论与教育相结合:一个简短的在线教育工具对健康信念模型要素的影响。
Pub Date : 2023-03-29 eCollection Date: 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1159/000530222
Morgan N Driver, Sally I-Chun Kuo, Jehannine Austin, Danielle M Dick

Introduction: The utility of genetic risk information relies on the assumption that individuals will use the information to change behavior to reduce risk of developing health problems. Educational interventions designed to target elements of the Health Belief Model have shown to be effective in promoting behaviors for positive outcomes.

Methods: A randomized controlled trial (RCT) was conducted in 325 college students to assess whether a brief, online educational intervention altered elements of the Health Belief Model that are known to be associated with motivations and intentions to change behavior. The RCT included a control condition, an intervention condition that received information about alcohol use disorder (AUD), and an intervention condition that received information about polygenic risk scores and AUD. We used t tests and ANOVA methods to compare differences in beliefs related to the Health Belief Model across study conditions and demographic characteristics.

Results: Providing educational information did not impact worry about developing AUD, perceived susceptibility and severity of developing alcohol problems, or perceived benefits and barriers of risk-reducing actions. Individuals in the condition that received educational information about polygenic risk scores and AUD reported higher perceived chance of developing AUD than individuals in the control condition (adj. p < 0.01). Sex, race/ethnicity, family history, and drinking status were associated with several components of the Health Belief Model.

Conclusion: Findings from this study demonstrate the need to better design and refine the educational information intended to accompany the return of genetic feedback for AUD to better promote risk-reducing behaviors.

引言:遗传风险信息的效用依赖于这样一种假设,即个人会利用这些信息来改变行为,以降低出现健康问题的风险。旨在针对健康信念模型要素的教育干预措施已被证明在促进积极结果的行为方面是有效的。方法:在325名大学生中进行了一项随机对照试验(RCT),以评估简短的在线教育干预是否改变了健康信念模型中已知与改变行为的动机和意图相关的元素。随机对照试验包括对照条件、接受酒精使用障碍(AUD)信息的干预条件和接受多基因风险评分和AUD信息的干预情况。我们使用t检验和方差分析方法来比较研究条件和人口统计学特征中与健康信念模型相关的信念的差异。结果:提供教育信息不会影响对患AUD的担忧、对患酒精问题的易感性和严重性的感知,或对降低风险行动的益处和障碍的感知。接受多基因风险评分和AUD教育信息的患者报告称,与对照组患者相比,其患AUD的感知机会更高(adj.p<0.01)。性别、种族/民族、家族史,结论:本研究的结果表明,有必要更好地设计和完善旨在伴随AUD基因反馈回归的教育信息,以更好地促进降低风险的行为。
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引用次数: 0
E-Bayesian Estimation of Hierarchical Poisson-Gamma Model on the Basis of Restricted and Unrestricted Parameter Spaces 基于受限和无限制参数空间的分层Poisson-Gamma模型的E-Bayesian估计
Pub Date : 2023-03-29 DOI: 10.1155/2023/8767200
Azeem Iqbal, Laila A. Al-Essa, Muhammad Yousaf Shad, Fuad S. Al-Duais, M. Yassen, Muhammad Ahmad Raza
In this study, we use the idea of the hierarchical model (HM) to estimate an unknown parameter of the hierarchical Poisson-Gamma model using the E-Bayesian (E-B) theory. We propose the idea of hierarchical probability function instead of the traditional hierarchical prior density function. We aim to infer E-B estimates with respect to the conjugate Gamma prior distribution along with the E-posterior risks on the basis of different symmetric and asymmetric loss functions (LFs) under restricted and unrestricted parameter spaces using uniform hyperprior. Whereas, E-B estimators are compared with maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) using mean squared error (MSE). Monte Carlo simulations are prosecuted to study the efficiency of E-B estimators empirically. It is shown that the LFs under a restricted parameter space dominate to estimate the parameter of the hierarchical Poisson-Gamma model. It is also found that the E-B estimators are more precise than MLEs, and Stein’s LF has the least E-PR. Moreover, the application of outcomes to a real-life example has been made for analysis, comparison, and motivation.
在本研究中,我们使用层次模型(HM)的思想,利用e -贝叶斯(E-B)理论估计层次泊松-伽马模型的未知参数。我们提出了层次概率函数的思想来代替传统的层次先验密度函数。我们的目的是利用均匀超先验,在受限和无限制参数空间下,基于不同的对称和非对称损失函数(LFs),推断关于共轭Gamma先验分布的E-B估计以及e -后验风险。然而,使用均方误差(MSE)将E-B估计量与最大似然估计量(MLEs)进行比较。通过蒙特卡罗模拟,对E-B估计器的有效性进行了实证研究。结果表明,在有限的参数空间下,LFs对分层泊松-伽玛模型的参数估计起主导作用。我们还发现E-B估计器比mle估计器更精确,Stein的LF估计器的E-PR最小。此外,将结果应用于现实生活中的例子,进行分析、比较和激励。
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引用次数: 0
Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Location Optimization with Mixed and Forecasted Charging Requirements 混合和预测充电需求下的电动汽车充电设施选址优化
Pub Date : 2023-03-24 DOI: 10.1155/2023/9567183
Dandan Hu, Shuxuan Cai, Zhiwei Liu
Electric vehicles are not widely adopted without proper charging infrastructure, despite their environmental benefits and growing popularity in transportation. This paper focuses on the location problem of charging infrastructure to achieve a more optimized charging facility layout. The charging demands of electric vehicles can be divided into two categories. The first category is generated at network points such as shopping malls, office buildings, parking lots, and residential areas. The second category is generated along the flow of network paths, such as on the highway and on the way to and from work. The goal of this problem is to maximize both categories of charging demands using a nonlinear integer programming model. We introduce the spatial intersection model to obtain the data on path demand. The spatial intersection model is introduced to obtain data on path demand. In addition, future demand is taken into account in the optimization through data forecasting. Then, the greedy algorithm is designed to solve the optimization model. The effectiveness is proved by a lot of random experiments. Finally, the effects of parameters are analyzed by a case study. The location decision of charging stations for both demands is more reasonable than only one type of demand consideration. The proposed model ensures the coverage and appropriate extension of the charging network.
尽管电动汽车具有环保效益,在交通运输中越来越受欢迎,但如果没有适当的充电基础设施,电动汽车不会被广泛采用。本文主要研究充电设施的选址问题,以实现更优化的充电设施布局。电动汽车的充电需求可以分为两类。第一类是在购物中心、办公楼、停车场和住宅区等网络点产生的。第二类是沿着网络路径的流动产生的,例如在高速公路上和上下班的路上。该问题的目标是利用非线性整数规划模型最大化两类充电需求。引入空间交叉口模型来获取路径需求数据。引入空间交叉口模型,获取路径需求数据。此外,通过数据预测,在优化中考虑了未来的需求。然后,设计贪心算法求解优化模型。大量的随机实验证明了该方法的有效性。最后,通过实例分析了参数的影响。同时考虑两种需求的充电站选址决策比只考虑一种需求的充电站选址决策更为合理。该模型保证了充电网络的覆盖范围和适当的扩展。
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引用次数: 0
Spatiotemporal Tipping Induced by Turing Instability and Hopf Bifurcation in a Population Ecosystem Model with the Fear Factor 考虑恐惧因素的种群生态系统模型中图灵不稳定性和Hopf分岔引起的时空引爆
Pub Date : 2023-03-18 DOI: 10.1155/2023/6375533
Min Xiao, Gong Chen, Feilong Wang, Zunshui Cheng, Yingtao Yao
Population ecosystems can display the tipping points at which extinctions of species happens. To predict the appearance of tipping points and to understand their evolution mechanism are of uttermost importance for ecological balance. Using techniques from bifurcation theory, we can predict the emergence of tipping points based on a spatiotemporal predator-prey system having a fear effect before an instability is encountered. In the case of no time delay, the tipping induced by Turing instability is studied. The conditions for Turing instability and local asymptotic stability of coexisting equilibrium points are given. It is ascertained that the introduction of diffusion causes the ecosystem to change from stable to unstable, and then the tipping occurs. Then, we investigate another tipping due to Hopf bifurcation. The delay-dependent stability criterion and Hopf bifurcation condition are derived, and the onset of Hopf bifurcations (tipping point) is also determined. In order to further probe into the mechanism of tipping evolution, explicit formulae are derived to ascertain the stability of bifurcated oscillations and the direction of bifurcation via the center manifold reduction. It is revealed that many tipping points may exist in ecological competition systems, and the tipping occurs many times as the fear delay increases. Finally, several simulation examples are provided to substantiate the analytical results.
种群生态系统可以显示物种灭绝发生的临界点。预测临界点的出现并了解其演化机制对生态平衡至关重要。利用分岔理论的技术,我们可以预测在遇到不稳定之前具有恐惧效应的时空捕食者-猎物系统的临界点的出现。在无时滞情况下,研究了图灵不稳定性引起的倾转。给出了共存平衡点的图灵不稳定性和局部渐近稳定的条件。确定了扩散的引入使生态系统由稳定向不稳定转变,然后发生倾转。然后,我们研究了另一种由Hopf分岔引起的临界点。导出了时滞相关的稳定性判据和Hopf分岔条件,并确定了Hopf分岔的起始点(临界点)。为了进一步探讨倾转演化的机理,导出了通过中心流形约简确定分岔振荡稳定性和分岔方向的显式公式。研究发现,生态竞争系统中可能存在多个引爆点,并且随着恐惧延迟的增加,引爆会多次发生。最后,给出了几个仿真实例来验证分析结果。
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引用次数: 0
Research on Chinese Stock Market during COVID-19 - Based on Random Matrix Theory 新冠肺炎期间中国股市研究——基于随机矩阵理论
Pub Date : 2023-03-18 DOI: 10.1155/2023/5404229
Wu Yaojie, Fang Tianhui
This paper focuses on the three industries that are greatly impacted by COVID-19, including the consumption industry, the pharmaceutical industry, and the financial industry. The daily returns of 98 stocks in the consumption industry, the pharmaceutical industry, and the financial industry in the 100 trading days from January 2, 2020, to June 3, 2020, are selected. Based on the random matrix theory, it first analyzes whether the stock market conforms to the efficient market hypothesis during the epidemic period, and second it further studies the linkage between the three industries. The results show that (1) the correlation coefficient is approximately a normal distribution, but the mean value is greater than 0, which is greater than that of the more mature markets such as the United States. (2) There are three eigenvalues greater than the prediction value, of which the maximum eigenvalue is about 11.18 times larger than the largest eigenvalue of the RMT. (3) There is a significant positive relationship between the maximum eigenvalue and the correlation coefficient. The specific market performance is that the stock price fluctuations show a high degree of consistency. (4) In the sample interval, the financial industry has a restraining effect on the consumption industry in the short term, and the pharmaceutical industry has a promoting and then restraining effect on the consumption industry in the short term. The consumption industry has a promoting effect on the financial industry in the short term, and the pharmaceutical industry has a promoting and then restraining effect on the financial industry in the short term. The consumption industry has a promoting and then restraining effect on the pharmaceutical industry in the short term, and the financial industry has a promoting and then restraining effect on the pharmaceutical industry in the short term. (5) In the sample interval, the consumption industry is mainly affected by itself, while the role of the pharmaceutical industry and the financial industry is very small. The pharmaceutical industry is mainly affected by itself and the consumption industry, while the role of the financial industry is very small. The financial industry is mainly affected by itself and the consumption industry, while the role of the pharmaceutical industry is very small. This situation has consequences for individual investors and institutional investors, since some stock returns can be expected, creating opportunities for arbitrage and for abnormal returns, contrary to the assumptions of random walk and information efficiency. The research on the correlation between asset returns will help to accurately price assets and avoid losses caused by price fluctuations during the epidemic.
本文重点研究受新冠疫情影响较大的三个行业,分别是消费行业、医药行业和金融行业。选取2020年1月2日至2020年6月3日100个交易日内,消费行业、医药行业、金融行业98只个股的日收益。基于随机矩阵理论,首先分析了疫情期间股票市场是否符合有效市场假说,然后进一步研究了三产业之间的联系。结果表明:(1)相关系数近似为正态分布,但均值大于0,大于美国等较为成熟的市场。(2)大于预测值的特征值有3个,其中最大特征值约为RMT最大特征值的11.18倍。(3)最大特征值与相关系数呈显著正相关。具体的市场表现是股价波动表现出高度的一致性。(4)在样本区间内,金融业在短期内对消费行业具有抑制作用,医药行业在短期内对消费行业具有先促进后抑制作用。消费行业在短期内对金融业具有促进作用,医药行业在短期内对金融业具有先促进后抑制作用。消费行业短期内对医药行业具有先促进后抑制的作用,金融行业短期内对医药行业具有先促进后抑制的作用。(5)在样本区间内,消费行业主要受自身的影响,而医药行业和金融行业的作用很小。医药行业主要受自身和消费行业的影响,而金融业的作用很小。金融行业主要受自身和消费行业的影响,而医药行业的作用很小。这种情况对个人投资者和机构投资者都有影响,因为一些股票收益是可以预期的,创造了套利和异常收益的机会,这与随机游走和信息效率的假设相反。研究资产收益之间的相关性,有助于对资产进行准确定价,避免疫情期间价格波动带来的损失。
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引用次数: 0
Investigation of Behavior on Solutions of Lane-Emden Complex Differential Equations by a Random Differential Transformation Method 用随机微分变换方法研究Lane-Emden复微分方程解的行为
Pub Date : 2023-03-16 DOI: 10.1155/2023/3713454
M. Merdan, Merve Merdan, R. Şahin
In this study, Lane–Emden complex differential equations have been randomized by selecting random variables for the coefficients, initial conditions, and force functions of complex differential equations. In addition, by finding the solutions of the obtained random complex differential equations, the probability characteristics of the solutions are examined. The random version of the differential transformation method (DTM) is used to obtain an analytical solution close to the solution of the random differential equation. Approximate expected values and variances are calculated using the approximate solution method. The solutions of some random complex differential equations obtained by using random probability characteristics with gamma, normal, and beta distributions were obtained by the DTM method. The probability characteristics obtained are shown graphically with the help of the MAPLE program.
本研究通过选取随机变量对Lane-Emden复微分方程的系数、初始条件和力函数进行随机化。此外,通过求得到的随机复微分方程的解,检验了解的概率特性。利用随机微分变换法(DTM)得到了近似于随机微分方程解的解析解。近似期望值和方差采用近似解法计算。采用DTM方法,对具有gamma分布、正态分布和beta分布的随机概率特征得到的随机复微分方程进行了求解。在MAPLE程序的帮助下,用图形显示了得到的概率特征。
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引用次数: 0
Topological Indices of Total Graph and Zero Divisor Graph of Commutative Ring: A Polynomial Approach 交换环的全图和零因子图的拓扑指标:一个多项式方法
Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI: 10.1155/2023/6815657
Sourav Mondal, Muhammad Imran, Nilanjan De, A. Pal
The algebraic polynomial plays a significant role in mathematical chemistry to compute the exact expressions of distance-based, degree-distance-based, and degree-based topological indices. The topological index is utilized as a significant tool in the study of the quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) and quantitative structures property relationship (QSPR) which correlate a molecular structure to its different properties and activities. Graphs containing finite commutative rings have wide applications in robotics, information and communication theory, elliptic curve cryptography, physics, and statistics. In this article, the topological indices of the total graph Tn n+ , the zero divisor graph Γrn
代数多项式在数学化学中起着重要的作用,用于计算基于距离、基于度-距离和基于度的拓扑指标的精确表达式。拓扑指数是研究分子结构与其不同性质和活性之间的定量构效关系(QSAR)和定量构效关系(QSPR)的重要工具。包含有限交换环的图在机器人、信息与通信理论、椭圆曲线密码学、物理学和统计学中有着广泛的应用。在本文中,总图ttn的拓扑指标N∈N +,零因子图Γ 0 rN (r)是'N∈N +),零因子图Γ r ×s × t(r, s, t是素数)是用代数多项式计算的。
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引用次数: 1
Sensitive Periods for the Effect of Child Maltreatment on Psychopathology Symptoms in Adolescence. 儿童虐待对青少年心理病理症状影响的敏感期。
Pub Date : 2023-03-13 eCollection Date: 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1159/000530120
Erin C Dunn, Daniel S Busso, Kathryn A Davis, Andrew D A C Smith, Colter Mitchell, Henning Tiemeier, Ezra S Susser

Introduction: Child maltreatment is among the strongest risk factors for mental disorders. However, little is known about whether there are ages when children may be especially vulnerable to its effects. We sought to identify potential sensitive periods when exposure to the 2 most common types of maltreatment (neglect and harsh physical discipline) had a particularly detrimental effect on youth mental health.

Methods: Data came from the Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study (FFCWS), a birth cohort oversampled from "fragile families" (n = 3,474). Maltreatment was assessed at 3, 5, and 9 years of age using an adapted version of the Parent-Child Conflict Tactics Scales (CTS-PC). Using least angle regression, we examined the relationship between repeated measures of exposure to maltreatment on psychopathology symptoms at age 15 years (Child Behavior Checklist; CBCL/6-18). For comparison, we evaluated the strength of evidence to support the existence of sensitive periods in relation to an accumulation of risk model.

Results: We identified sensitive periods for harsh physical discipline, whereby psychopathology symptom scores were highest among girls exposed at age 9 years (r2 = 0.67 internalizing symptoms; r2 = 1% externalizing symptoms) and among boys exposed at age 5 years (r2 = 0.41%). However, for neglect, the accumulation of risk model explained more variability in psychopathology symptoms for both boys and girls.

Conclusion: Child maltreatment may have differential effects based on the child's sex, type of exposure, and the age at which it occurs. These findings provide additional evidence for clinicians assessing the benefits and drawbacks of screening efforts and point toward possible mechanisms driving increased vulnerability to psychopathology.

引言:虐待儿童是精神障碍最严重的危险因素之一。然而,人们对儿童是否在特定年龄段特别容易受到其影响知之甚少。我们试图确定暴露于两种最常见的虐待类型(忽视和严厉的身体纪律)对青少年心理健康产生特别不利影响的潜在敏感时期。方法:数据来自未来家庭和儿童福利研究(FFCWS),这是一个来自“脆弱家庭”(n=3474)的出生队列。在3岁、5岁和9岁时,使用亲子冲突策略量表(CTS-PC)的修订版对虐待行为进行评估。使用最小角度回归,我们检查了15岁时暴露于虐待对精神病理学症状的重复测量之间的关系(儿童行为检查表;CBCL/6-18)。为了进行比较,我们评估了支持存在与风险累积模型相关的敏感期的证据的强度。结果:我们确定了严酷的物理纪律的敏感期,其中9岁时暴露的女孩的精神病理学症状得分最高(r2=0.67内化症状;r2=1%外化症状),5岁时暴露在外的男孩中(r2=0.41%)。然而,对于忽视,风险累积模型解释了男孩和女孩精神病理学症状的更多可变性。结论:虐待儿童可能会因儿童的性别、接触类型和发生年龄而产生不同的影响。这些发现为临床医生评估筛查工作的利弊提供了额外的证据,并指出了导致精神病理学易感性增加的可能机制。
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引用次数: 1
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Complex psychiatry
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