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Association of Predicted Expression and Multimodel Association Analysis of Substance Abuse Traits. 药物滥用特征的预测表达和多模型关联分析。
Pub Date : 2022-09-01 Epub Date: 2022-02-28 DOI: 10.1159/000523748
Darius M Bost, Chris Bizon, Jeffrey L Tilson, Dayne L Filer, Ian R Gizer, Kirk C Wilhelmsen

Introduction: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have played a critical role in identifying many thousands of loci associated with complex phenotypes and diseases. This has led to several translations of novel disease susceptibility genes into drug targets and care. This however has not been the case for analyses where sample sizes are small, which suffer from multiple comparisons testing. The present study examined the statistical impact of combining a burden test methodology, PrediXcan, with a multimodel meta-analysis, cross phenotype association (CPASSOC).

Methods: The analysis was conducted on 5 addiction traits: family alcoholism, cannabis craving, alcohol, nicotine, and cannabis dependence and 10 brain tissues: anterior cingulate cortex BA24, cerebellar hemisphere, cortex, hippocampus, nucleus accumbens basal ganglia, caudate basal ganglia, cerebellum, frontal cortex BA9, hypothalamus, and putamen basal ganglia. Our sample consisted of 1,640 participants from the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF) Family Alcoholism Study. Genotypes were obtained through low pass whole genome sequencing and the use of Thunder, a linkage disequilibrium variant caller.

Results: The post-PrediXcan, gene-phenotype association without aggregation resulted in 2 significant results, HCG27 and SPPL2B. Aggregating across phenotypes resulted no significant findings. Aggregating across tissues resulted in 15 significant and 5 suggestive associations: PPIE, RPL36AL, FOXN2, MTERF4, SEPTIN2, CIAO3, RPL36AL, ZNF304, CCDC66, SSPOP, SLC7A9, LY75, MTRF1L, COA5, and RRP7A; RPS23, GNMT, ERV3-1, APIP, and HLA-B, respectively.

Discussion: Given the relatively small size of the cohort, this multimodel approach was able to find over a dozen significant associations between predicted gene expression and addiction traits. Of our findings, 8 had prior associations with similar phenotypes through investigation of the GWAS Atlas. With the onset of improved transcriptome data, this approach should increase in efficacy.

简介全基因组关联研究(GWAS)在确定数千个与复杂表型和疾病相关的基因位点方面发挥了关键作用。这使得一些新的疾病易感基因被转化为药物靶点和治疗方法。然而,对于样本量较小的分析而言,情况并非如此,这些分析受到多重比较测试的影响。本研究考察了将负担测试方法 PrediXcan 与多模型荟萃分析、交叉表型关联(CPASSOC)相结合的统计影响:分析对象包括5种成瘾特征:家庭酗酒、大麻渴求、酒精、尼古丁和大麻依赖,以及10种脑组织:前扣带回皮层BA24、小脑半球、大脑皮层、海马体、基底节伏隔核、基底节尾状核、小脑、额叶皮层BA9、下丘脑和基底节普坦门。我们的样本由加州大学旧金山分校(UCSF)家族酗酒研究的 1,640 名参与者组成。基因型是通过低通量全基因组测序和使用关联不平衡变异调用器 Thunder 获得的:结果:PrediXcan 后基因与表型的关联在未进行聚合的情况下产生了两个显著的结果,即 HCG27 和 SPPL2B。跨表型聚合没有发现显著结果。跨组织聚集则产生了 15 项显著关联和 5 项提示性关联:分别是 PPIE、RPL36AL、FOXN2、MTERF4、SEPTIN2、CIAO3、RPL36AL、ZNF304、CCDC66、SSPOP、SLC7A9、LY75、MTRF1L、COA5 和 RRP7A;RPS23、GNMT、ERV3-1、APIP 和 HLA-B:鉴于队列规模相对较小,这种多模型方法能够在预测的基因表达和成瘾特征之间发现十几种显著的关联。在我们的研究结果中,有 8 项先前通过 GWAS 图集调查发现与类似表型有关联。随着转录组数据的不断完善,这种方法的有效性应该会提高。
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引用次数: 0
Accelerating Opioid Use Disorders Research by Integrating Multiple Data Modalities. 通过整合多种数据模式加速阿片类药物使用障碍的研究。
Pub Date : 2022-09-01 Epub Date: 2022-05-23 DOI: 10.1159/000525079
Sevim B Bianchi, Alvin D Jeffery, David C Samuels, Lori Schirle, Abraham A Palmer, Sandra Sanchez-Roige
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引用次数: 0
A Role for Histone Deacetylases in the Biology and Treatment of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder: What Do We Know and Where Do We Go from Here? 组蛋白去乙酰化酶在创伤后应激障碍的生物学和治疗中的作用:我们知道什么,我们从这里去哪里?
Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1159/000524079
Robin E Bonomi, Matthew Girgenti, John H Krystal, Kelly P Cosgrove

Post-traumatic stress disorder is a prevalent disorder within the USA and worldwide with a yearly diagnosis rate of 2-4% and affecting women more than men. One of the primary methods for study of this stress disorder relies on animal models as there are few noninvasive methods and few replicated peripheral biomarkers for use in humans. One area of active research in psychiatric neuroscience is the field of epigenetics - how the chemical modifications of the genetic code regulate behavior. The dynamic changes in histone acetylation and deacetylation in the brain are not fully reflected by the study of peripheral biomarker. In this review, we aim to examine the role of histone acetylation and deacetylation in memory formation and fear memory learning. The studies discussed here focus largely on the role of histone deacetylases (HDACs) in animal models of trauma and fear response. Many studies used HDAC inhibitors to elucidate the effects after inhibition of these enzymes after trauma or stress. These studies of memory processing and cued fear extinction in animal can often shed light on human disorders of cued fear responses and memory dysregulation after stress or trauma such as in PTSD. These results provide strong evidence for a role of these enzymes in PTSD in humans. The few clinical studies that exist with HDAC inhibitors also suggest a fundamental role of these enzymes in the neurobiology of the stress response. Further study of these enzymes in both clinical and pre-clinical settings may help elucidate the neurobiology of stress-related pathology like PTSD and provide a foundation for novel therapy to treat these disorders.

创伤后应激障碍在美国和世界范围内是一种普遍的疾病,每年的诊断率为2-4%,对女性的影响大于男性。研究这种应激障碍的主要方法之一依赖于动物模型,因为很少有非侵入性方法和很少可复制的外周生物标志物用于人类。精神神经科学中活跃的研究领域之一是表观遗传学领域——遗传密码的化学修饰如何调节行为。外周生物标志物的研究并不能完全反映脑内组蛋白乙酰化和去乙酰化的动态变化。在这篇综述中,我们旨在研究组蛋白乙酰化和去乙酰化在记忆形成和恐惧记忆学习中的作用。这里讨论的研究主要集中在组蛋白去乙酰化酶(HDACs)在创伤和恐惧反应动物模型中的作用。许多研究使用HDAC抑制剂来阐明创伤或应激后抑制这些酶的作用。这些关于动物记忆加工和暗示恐惧消退的研究,往往有助于揭示人类应激或创伤后的暗示恐惧反应和记忆失调,如创伤后应激障碍。这些结果为这些酶在人类创伤后应激障碍中的作用提供了强有力的证据。少数与HDAC抑制剂有关的临床研究也表明这些酶在应激反应的神经生物学中起着基本作用。这些酶在临床和临床前的进一步研究可能有助于阐明应激相关病理(如PTSD)的神经生物学,并为治疗这些疾病的新疗法提供基础。
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引用次数: 4
Identifying High-Risk Comorbidities Associated with Opioid Use Patterns Using Electronic Health Record Prescription Data. 使用电子健康记录处方数据识别与阿片类药物使用模式相关的高危合并症
Pub Date : 2022-09-01 Epub Date: 2022-06-02 DOI: 10.1159/000525313
Mariela V Jennings, Hyunjoon Lee, Daniel B Rocha, Sevim B Bianchi, Brandon J Coombes, Richard C Crist, Annika B Faucon, Yirui Hu, Rachel L Kember, Travis T Mallard, Maria Niarchou, Melissa N Poulsen, Peter Straub, Richard D Urman, Colin G Walsh, Lea K Davis, Jordan W Smoller, Vanessa Troiani, Sandra Sanchez-Roige

Introduction: Opioid use disorders (OUDs) constitute a major public health issue, and we urgently need alternative methods for characterizing risk for OUD. Electronic health records (EHRs) are useful tools for understanding complex medical phenotypes but have been underutilized for OUD because of challenges related to underdiagnosis, binary diagnostic frameworks, and minimally characterized reference groups. As a first step in addressing these challenges, a new paradigm is warranted that characterizes risk for opioid prescription misuse on a continuous scale of severity, i.e., as a continuum.

Methods: Across sites within the PsycheMERGE network, we extracted prescription opioid data and diagnoses that co-occur with OUD (including psychiatric and substance use disorders, pain-related diagnoses, HIV, and hepatitis C) for over 2.6 million patients across three health registries (Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Mass General Brigham, Geisinger) between 2005 and 2018. We defined three groups based on levels of opioid exposure: no prescriptions, minimal exposure, and chronic exposure and then compared the comorbidity profiles of these groups to the full registries and to those with OUD diagnostic codes.

Results: Our results confirm that EHR data reflects known higher prevalence of substance use disorders, psychiatric disorders, medical, and pain diagnoses in patients with OUD diagnoses and chronic opioid use. Comorbidity profiles that distinguish opioid exposure are strikingly consistent across large health systems, indicating the phenotypes described in this new quantitative framework are robust to health systems differences.

Conclusion: This work indicates that EHR prescription opioid data can serve as a platform to characterize complex risk markers for OUD using existing data.

阿片类药物使用障碍(OUDs)构成了一个重大的公共卫生问题,我们迫切需要替代方法来表征OUD的风险。电子健康记录(EHRs)是了解复杂医学表型的有用工具,但由于诊断不足、二元诊断框架和特征最少的参考组相关的挑战,对OUD的利用不足。作为应对这些挑战的第一步,有必要建立一个新的范式,以连续的严重程度来表征阿片类药物处方滥用的风险,即作为一个连续体。方法:在PsycheMERGE网络的各个站点,我们提取了2005年至2018年间三个健康登记处(范德比尔特大学医学中心、麻省总医院布里格姆、盖辛格)260多万名患者的处方阿片类药物数据和与OUD共同发生的诊断(包括精神和物质使用障碍、疼痛相关诊断、艾滋病毒和丙型肝炎)。我们根据阿片类药物暴露水平定义了三组:无处方、最小暴露和慢性暴露,然后将这些组的合并症概况与完整注册表和具有OUD诊断代码的人群进行比较。结果:我们的研究结果证实,EHR数据反映了已知的物质使用障碍、精神障碍、医学诊断和疼痛诊断在OUD诊断和慢性阿片类药物使用患者中的较高患病率。区分阿片类药物暴露的共病概况在大型卫生系统中是惊人一致的,表明在这个新的定量框架中描述的表型对卫生系统差异是稳健的。结论:这项工作表明,EHR处方阿片类药物数据可以作为利用现有数据表征OUD复杂风险标志物的平台。
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引用次数: 0
Front & Back Matter 正面和背面
Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1159/000527132
Y. Milaneschi
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引用次数: 0
Polygenic contributions to suicidal thoughts and behaviors in a sample ascertained for alcohol use disorders 多基因对酒精使用障碍样本中自杀想法和行为的影响
Pub Date : 2022-08-19 DOI: 10.1101/2022.08.18.22278943
S. Colbert, N. Mullins, G. Chan, J. Meyers, Jessica Schulman, S. Kuperman, D. Lai, J. Nurnberger, M. Plawecki, C. Kamarajan, A. Anokhin, K. Bucholz, V. Hesselbrock, H. Edenberg, J. Kramer, D. Dick, B. Porjesz, A. Agrawal, E. Johnson
Suicidal thoughts and behaviors have partially distinct genetic etiologies. We used PRS-CS to create polygenic risk scores (PRS) from GWAS of non-suicidal self-injury, broad sense self-harm ideation, non-fatal suicide attempt, death by suicide, and depression. Using mixed-effect models, we estimated whether these PRS were associated with a range of suicidal thoughts and behaviors in the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism (N = 7,526). All PRS were significantly associated with suicidal ideation and suicide attempt (betas=0.08-0.44, FDR<0.023). All PRS except non-suicidal self-injury PRS were associated with active suicidal ideation and severity of suicidality (betas=0.04-0.22, FDR<0.034). Several associations remained significant in models where all significant PRS were included as simultaneous predictors, and when all PRS predicted suicide attempt, the PRS together explained 6.2% of the variance in suicide attempt. Significant associations were also observed between some PRS and persistent suicidal ideation, non-suicidal self-injury, attempt severity and desire to die. Our findings suggest that PRS for depression does not explain the entirety of the variance in suicidal thoughts and behaviors, with PRS specifically for suicidal thoughts and behaviors making additional and sometimes unique contributions.
自杀的想法和行为有部分不同的遗传病因。我们利用PRS- cs从非自杀性自伤、广义自伤意念、非致命性自杀企图、自杀死亡和抑郁的GWAS中创建多基因风险评分(PRS)。使用混合效应模型,我们在酒精中毒遗传学合作研究中估计这些PRS是否与一系列自杀念头和行为有关(N = 7526)。所有PRS与自杀意念和自杀企图显著相关(β =0.08-0.44, FDR<0.023)。除非自杀性自残外,所有PRS均与主动自杀意念和自杀严重程度相关(β =0.04 ~ 0.22, FDR<0.034)。当所有显著的PRS都被包括作为同时预测因子时,几个关联在模型中仍然显著,当所有PRS都预测自杀企图时,PRS共同解释了6.2%的自杀企图方差。一些PRS与持续性自杀意念、非自杀性自伤、企图严重程度和死亡欲望之间也存在显著关联。我们的研究结果表明,抑郁症的PRS不能解释自杀想法和行为的全部差异,特别是自杀想法和行为的PRS有额外的,有时是独特的贡献。
{"title":"Polygenic contributions to suicidal thoughts and behaviors in a sample ascertained for alcohol use disorders","authors":"S. Colbert, N. Mullins, G. Chan, J. Meyers, Jessica Schulman, S. Kuperman, D. Lai, J. Nurnberger, M. Plawecki, C. Kamarajan, A. Anokhin, K. Bucholz, V. Hesselbrock, H. Edenberg, J. Kramer, D. Dick, B. Porjesz, A. Agrawal, E. Johnson","doi":"10.1101/2022.08.18.22278943","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.08.18.22278943","url":null,"abstract":"Suicidal thoughts and behaviors have partially distinct genetic etiologies. We used PRS-CS to create polygenic risk scores (PRS) from GWAS of non-suicidal self-injury, broad sense self-harm ideation, non-fatal suicide attempt, death by suicide, and depression. Using mixed-effect models, we estimated whether these PRS were associated with a range of suicidal thoughts and behaviors in the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism (N = 7,526). All PRS were significantly associated with suicidal ideation and suicide attempt (betas=0.08-0.44, FDR<0.023). All PRS except non-suicidal self-injury PRS were associated with active suicidal ideation and severity of suicidality (betas=0.04-0.22, FDR<0.034). Several associations remained significant in models where all significant PRS were included as simultaneous predictors, and when all PRS predicted suicide attempt, the PRS together explained 6.2% of the variance in suicide attempt. Significant associations were also observed between some PRS and persistent suicidal ideation, non-suicidal self-injury, attempt severity and desire to die. Our findings suggest that PRS for depression does not explain the entirety of the variance in suicidal thoughts and behaviors, with PRS specifically for suicidal thoughts and behaviors making additional and sometimes unique contributions.","PeriodicalId":72654,"journal":{"name":"Complex psychiatry","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83718752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Microscopic fluctuations in power-grid frequency recordings at the sub-second scale 亚秒尺度下电网频率记录的微观波动
Pub Date : 2022-07-07 DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2208.06379
B. Schäfer, L. R. Gorjão, G. Yalcin, Ellen Förstner, Richard Jumar, H. Maass, U. Kühnapfel, V. Hagenmeyer
Complex systems, such as the power grid, are essential for our daily lives. Many complex systems display multifractal behavior, correlated fluctuations and power laws. Whether the power-grid frequency, an indicator of the balance of supply and demand in the electricity grid, also displays such complexity remains a mostly open question. Within the present article, we utilize highly resolved measurements to quantify the properties of the power-grid frequency, making three key contributions: First, we demonstrate the existence of power laws in power-grid frequency measurements. Second, we show that below one second, the dynamics may fundamentally change, including a suddenly increasing power spectral density, emergence of multifractality and a change of correlation behavior. Third, we provide a simplified stochastic model involving positively correlated noise to reproduce the observed dynamics, possibly linked to frequency-dependent loads. Finally, we stress the need for high-quality measurements and discuss how we obtained the data analyzed here.
像电网这样的复杂系统对我们的日常生活至关重要。许多复杂系统表现出多重分形行为、相关波动和幂律。作为电网供需平衡指标的电网频率是否也显示出这种复杂性,仍是一个悬而未决的问题。在本文中,我们利用高分辨率测量来量化电网频率的特性,做出了三个关键贡献:首先,我们证明了电网频率测量中存在幂律。其次,我们表明,在一秒内,动态可能会发生根本变化,包括功率谱密度突然增加,多重分形的出现和相关行为的变化。第三,我们提供了一个涉及正相关噪声的简化随机模型,以再现观察到的动态,可能与频率相关的负载有关。最后,我们强调了高质量测量的必要性,并讨论了我们如何获得这里分析的数据。
{"title":"Microscopic fluctuations in power-grid frequency recordings at the sub-second scale","authors":"B. Schäfer, L. R. Gorjão, G. Yalcin, Ellen Förstner, Richard Jumar, H. Maass, U. Kühnapfel, V. Hagenmeyer","doi":"10.48550/arXiv.2208.06379","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2208.06379","url":null,"abstract":"Complex systems, such as the power grid, are essential for our daily lives. Many\u0000 complex systems display multifractal behavior, correlated fluctuations and power\u0000 laws. Whether the power-grid frequency, an indicator of the balance of supply\u0000 and demand in the electricity grid, also displays such complexity remains a\u0000 mostly open question. Within the present article, we utilize highly resolved\u0000 measurements to quantify the properties of the power-grid frequency, making\u0000 three key contributions: First, we demonstrate the existence of power laws in\u0000 power-grid frequency measurements. Second, we show that below one second, the\u0000 dynamics may fundamentally change, including a suddenly increasing power\u0000 spectral density, emergence of multifractality and a change of correlation\u0000 behavior. Third, we provide a simplified stochastic model involving positively\u0000 correlated noise to reproduce the observed dynamics, possibly linked to\u0000 frequency-dependent loads. Finally, we stress the need for high-quality\u0000 measurements and discuss how we obtained the data analyzed here.","PeriodicalId":72654,"journal":{"name":"Complex psychiatry","volume":"85 1","pages":"2657039:1-2657039:13"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89034115","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Low complexity, low probability patterns and consequences for algorithmic probability applications 低复杂性,低概率模式和算法概率应用的后果
Pub Date : 2022-07-06 DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2207.12251
Mohamed Alaskandarani, K. Dingle
Developing new ways to estimate probabilities can be valuable for science, statistics, engineering, and other fields. By considering the information content of different output patterns, recent work invoking algorithmic information theory inspired arguments has shown that a priori probability predictions based on pattern complexities can be made in a broad class of input-output maps. These algorithmic probability predictions do not depend on a detailed knowledge of how output patterns were produced, or historical statistical data. Although quantitatively fairly accurate, a main weakness of these predictions is that they are given as an upper bound on the probability of a pattern, but many low complexity, low probability patterns occur, for which the upper bound has little predictive value. Here, we study this low complexity, low probability phenomenon by looking at example maps, namely a finite state transducer, natural time series data, RNA molecule structures, and polynomial curves. Some mechanisms causing low complexity, low probability behaviour are identified, and we argue this behaviour should be assumed as a default in the real-world algorithmic probability studies. Additionally, we examine some applications of algorithmic probability and discuss some implications of low complexity, low probability patterns for several research areas including simplicity in physics and biology, a priori probability predictions, Solomonoff induction and Occam’s razor, machine learning, and password guessing.
开发估算概率的新方法对科学、统计、工程和其他领域都很有价值。通过考虑不同输出模式的信息内容,最近的工作调用算法信息理论启发的论点表明,基于模式复杂性的先验概率预测可以在广泛的输入-输出映射中进行。这些算法概率预测不依赖于如何产生输出模式的详细知识,也不依赖于历史统计数据。虽然在数量上相当准确,但这些预测的主要缺点是它们是作为模式概率的上界给出的,但是发生了许多低复杂性、低概率的模式,对于这些模式,上界几乎没有预测价值。在这里,我们通过查看示例图来研究这种低复杂性,低概率现象,即有限状态传感器,自然时间序列数据,RNA分子结构和多项式曲线。一些导致低复杂性,低概率行为的机制被确定,我们认为这种行为应该被假设为现实世界算法概率研究中的默认值。此外,我们还研究了算法概率的一些应用,并讨论了低复杂性、低概率模式对几个研究领域的影响,包括物理和生物学中的简单性、先验概率预测、所罗门诺夫归纳和奥卡姆剃刀、机器学习和密码猜测。
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引用次数: 4
Stability of China's Stock Market: Measure and Forecast by Ricci Curvature on Network 中国股票市场的稳定性:网络上Ricci曲率的测度与预测
Pub Date : 2022-04-14 DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2204.06692
Xinyu Wang, Liang Zhao, Ning Zhang, Liu Feng, Haibo Lin
The systemic stability of a stock market is one of the core issues in the financial field. The market can be regarded as a complex network whose nodes are stocks connected by edges that signify their correlation strength. Since the market is a strongly nonlinear system, it is difficult to measure the macroscopic stability and depict market fluctuations in time. In this article, we use a geometric measure derived from discrete Ricci curvature to capture the higher-order nonlinear architecture of financial networks. In order to confirm the effectiveness of our method, we use it to analyze the CSI 300 constituents of China’s stock market from 2005 to 2020 and the systemic stability of the market is quantified through the network’s Ricci-type curvatures. Furthermore, we use a hybrid model to analyze the curvature time series and predict the future trends of the market accurately. As far as we know, this is the first article to apply Ricci curvature to forecast the systemic stability of China’s stock market, and our results show that Ricci curvature has good explanatory power for the market stability and can be a good indicator to judge the future risk and volatility of China’s stock market.
股票市场的系统稳定性是金融领域的核心问题之一。市场可以看作是一个复杂的网络,其节点是股票,它们之间的边表示它们的关联强度。由于市场是一个强非线性系统,很难及时测量宏观稳定性和描述市场波动。在本文中,我们使用从离散里奇曲率派生的几何度量来捕获金融网络的高阶非线性结构。为了验证该方法的有效性,我们将其用于分析2005 - 2020年中国股市沪深300成分股,并通过网络的ricci型曲率对市场的系统稳定性进行量化。此外,我们使用混合模型来分析曲率时间序列,并准确预测市场的未来趋势。据我们所知,这是第一篇运用Ricci曲率来预测中国股市系统稳定性的文章,我们的研究结果表明Ricci曲率对市场稳定性有很好的解释力,可以作为判断中国股市未来风险和波动性的一个很好的指标。
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引用次数: 0
Theory of Acceleration of Decision Making by Correlated Times Sequences 相关时间序列加速决策的理论
Pub Date : 2022-03-30 DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2203.16004
Norihiro Okada, T. Yamagami, N. Chauvet, Yu Ito, M. Hasegawa, M. Naruse
Photonic accelerators have been intensively studied to provide enhanced information processing capability to benefit from the unique attributes of physical processes. Recently, it has been reported that chaotically oscillating ultrafast time series from a laser, called laser chaos, provides the ability to solve multi-armed bandit (MAB) problems or decision-making problems at GHz order. Furthermore, it has been confirmed that the negatively correlated time-domain structure of laser chaos contributes to the acceleration of decision-making. However, the underlying mechanism of why decision-making is accelerated by correlated time series is unknown. In this study, we demonstrate a theoretical model to account for accelerating decision-making by correlated time sequence. We first confirm the effectiveness of the negative autocorrelation inherent in time series for solving two-armed bandit problems using Fourier transform surrogate methods. We propose a theoretical model that concerns the correlated time series subjected to the decision-making system and the internal status of the system therein in a unified manner, inspired by correlated random walks. We demonstrate that the performance derived analytically by the theory agrees well with the numerical simulations, which confirms the validity of the proposed model and leads to optimal system design. This study paves the way for improving the effectiveness of correlated time series for decision-making, impacting artificial intelligence and other applications.
光子加速器已被深入研究,以提供增强的信息处理能力,以受益于物理过程的独特属性。最近有报道称,激光的混沌振荡超快时间序列,称为激光混沌,提供了解决多臂强盗(MAB)问题或GHz阶决策问题的能力。此外,还证实了激光混沌的负相关时域结构有助于加速决策。然而,相关时间序列加速决策的潜在机制尚不清楚。在本研究中,我们展示了一个理论模型来解释相关时间序列加速决策。我们首先证实了时间序列中固有的负自相关对于使用傅里叶变换替代方法求解双臂强盗问题的有效性。我们提出了一个理论模型,将受决策系统影响的相关时间序列和系统内部状态统一起来,并受到相关随机游走的启发。结果表明,理论解析得到的性能与数值模拟结果吻合较好,验证了所提模型的有效性,从而实现了系统的最优设计。该研究为提高相关时间序列在决策中的有效性,影响人工智能和其他应用铺平了道路。
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引用次数: 6
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Complex psychiatry
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