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Impact of carbon dioxide removal technologies on deep decarbonization: EMF37 MARKAL–NETL modeling results 二氧化碳清除技术对深度脱碳的影响:EMF37 MARKAL-NETL 建模结果
IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100143
Nadejda Victor , Christopher Nichols

This paper examines the MARKAL-NETL modeling results for the Energy Modeling Forum study on Deep Decarbonization and High Electrification Scenarios for North America (EMF 37) with a specific focus on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies and opportunities under different scenario guidelines, policies, and technological advancements.

The results demonstrate that CDR, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), direct air capture (DAC), and afforestation, are key technologies in deep decarbonization scenarios and account for 40–60 % of avoided carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions annually. From 2025 to 2050, cumulative CO2 abatement by CDR technologies will range from 37 to 47 billion tons (GtCO2), or more than 2 GtCO2 annually by 2050. The potential scale of CDR and its impact depends on the advancement and costs of energy supply and demand technologies, end-use sector electrification, and availability and costs of CDR. Results show that the price of carbon is substantially lower when advanced technologies are available, particularly in the EMF 37 carbon management scenarios [1].

While BECCS deployment is likely to be constrained for environmental and/or political reasons, the results display relatively large-scale BECCS deployment. The study found that BECCS could make a substantial contribution to emissions reductions after 2035, and, in the medium term, CO2 sequestration by BECCS will depend on CO2 price; BECCS deployment starts at a carbon price of around $70/tCO2. Long-term CO2 sequestration by BECCS increases in all scenarios, reaching the same annual level of ∼890 MtCO2 by 2050 in net-zero CO2 scenarios. According to the modeling results, DAC acts as a true backstop technology at carbon prices of around $600/tCO2.

本文研究了能源建模论坛关于北美深度脱碳和高度电气化情景研究(EMF 37)的 MARKAL-NETL 建模结果,特别关注不同情景指南、政策和技术进步下的二氧化碳清除(CDR)技术和机遇。研究结果表明,碳捕集与封存生物能源(BECCS)、直接空气捕集(DAC)和植树造林等二氧化碳去除技术是深度脱碳情景中的关键技术,每年可避免 40% 至 60% 的二氧化碳(CO2)排放。从 2025 年到 2050 年,CDR 技术的累计二氧化碳减排量将在 370 亿吨到 470 亿吨(GtCO2)之间,或到 2050 年每年超过 2 GtCO2。CDR 的潜在规模及其影响取决于能源供应和需求技术的进步和成本、最终使用部门的电气化以及 CDR 的可用性和成本。研究结果表明,当先进技术可用时,碳价格会大幅降低,尤其是在 EMF 37 碳管理方案中[1]。虽然 BECCS 的部署可能会因环境和/或政治原因而受到限制,但研究结果显示 BECCS 的部署规模相对较大。研究发现,BECCS 在 2035 年后可对减排做出重大贡献,而在中期,BECCS 的二氧化碳封存将取决于二氧化碳价格;BECCS 的部署始于约 70 美元/吨二氧化碳的碳价格。在所有情景下,BECCS 的长期二氧化碳封存量都会增加,到 2050 年,在净零二氧化碳情景下,BECCS 的年封存量将达到 8.9 亿吨二氧化碳。根据建模结果,在碳价格约为 600 美元/吨 CO2 时,DAC 是一种真正的后备技术。
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引用次数: 0
Coal in the 21st century: Industry transformation and transition justice in the phaseout of coal-as-fuel and the phase-in of coal as multi-asset resource platforms 21 世纪的煤炭:在淘汰煤炭作为燃料和逐步将煤炭作为多资产资源平台的过程中实现产业转型和过渡公正
IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-06-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100142
David O. Jermain , Raymond C. Pilcher , Z. Justin Ren , Eugene J. Berardi

The coal industry is enjoying long-term investments in new coal-fired power generation even as coal mining and production have been declining. Recent conflict in Europe has disrupted energy supplies and reinvigorated coal use. The duration of the retrenchment to coal may be short lived, but the end point of “short lived” remains uncertain. The present state of the coal industry and the investment community that underpins its growth obviates any meaningful acceleration in coal's phaseout as a core fuel resource. However, coal can be recast as a catalyst for achieving clean energy and economy futures. This can be done by seeing coal hydrocarbon deposits and byproducts of coal processing as long-term multi-asset resource platforms (MARPS), which integrate multiple new revenue streams on coal lands other than just mining coal as a fuel. New value comes from repurposing and leveraging mining lands, harvesting minor and trace elements from coal, and creating new revenue from harvesting hydrogen and carbon materials from coal bed methane, raw coal, coal tailings, and fly ash residues. We make the case that Coal Mining Enterprise (CME) value can be enhanced by ending the use of coal-as-fuel and creating new value streams serving existing and emerging markets by fully assessing, evaluating, and utilizing the portfolio of natural resources that are collocated within a typical coalfield. Coal sector investors tend not to see undervaluation in coal assets because CMEs focus predominantly on mining, processing, and shipping coal-as-fuel for electricity production and industrial processes. Formulating and asking the correct questions about how much value is being left on the table may bring innovation into a new frontier of coal as multi-asset resource platforms. Co-benefits of the approach include job creation across many viable emerging markets where “refining” coal is a competitive source of factor inputs. Moreover, it aids governments in aggressive support of coal industry transformations, through which lasting coal transition justice can be achieved. Ironically, despite all the technological and market uncertainties, coal in the 21st century can be, and should be, a critical success factor in achieving clean energy and economy futures.

尽管煤炭开采量和产量一直在下降,但煤炭行业在新建燃煤发电厂方面却获得了长期投资。最近欧洲的冲突扰乱了能源供应,重新激活了煤炭的使用。缩减煤炭使用的时间可能是短暂的,但 "短暂 "的终点仍不确定。煤炭行业和支持其发展的投资界目前的状况,使得煤炭作为核心燃料资源的淘汰速度不会明显加快。然而,煤炭可以重新成为实现清洁能源和经济未来的催化剂。为此,可以将煤炭碳氢化合物矿藏和煤炭加工副产品视为长期多资产资源平台(MARPS),在煤炭土地上整合多种新的收入来源,而不仅仅是将煤炭作为燃料进行开采。新的价值来自于采矿土地的再利用和杠杆化,从煤炭中获取次要元素和微量元素,以及从煤层气、原煤、煤炭尾矿和粉煤灰残渣中获取氢和碳材料,从而创造新的收入。我们认为,通过全面评估、评价和利用典型煤田中的自然资源组合,结束煤炭作为燃料的使用并为现有和新兴市场创造新的价值流,可以提高煤炭开采企业(CME)的价值。煤炭行业的投资者往往不会看到煤炭资产价值被低估的情况,因为煤炭市场主要集中在电力生产和工业流程中作为燃料的煤炭的开采、加工和运输。提出并询问关于有多少价值被搁置的正确问题,可能会将创新带入煤炭作为多资产资源平台的新领域。这种方法的共同效益包括在许多可行的新兴市场创造就业机会,在这些市场中,"提炼 "煤炭是具有竞争力的要素投入来源。此外,它还有助于政府积极支持煤炭行业转型,从而实现持久的煤炭转型正义。具有讽刺意味的是,尽管存在各种技术和市场不确定性,但煤炭在 21 世纪可以而且应该成为实现清洁能源和经济未来的关键成功因素。
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引用次数: 0
Carbon retrieving: Missing opportunities for a just transition in the Coal Industry 碳回收:煤炭行业错失实现公正转型的机会
Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-06-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100141
Fabio Teixeira Ferreira da Silva , Alexandre Szklo , Roberto Schaeffer , Pedro Rochedo

The climate crisis requires the shift towards the decarbonization of economic activities, challenging regions reliant on fossil resource extraction. While the just transition framework typically focuses on long-term measures to transition coal-dependent regions to new industries, it often overlooks the potential for revitalizing the coal industry itself. This perspective introduces new opportunities to just transitions in which the coal industry actively collaborates to decarbonization efforts. To demonstrate this potential, we propose two innovative conceptual arrangements that highlight the potential contribution of the coal sector to provide essential services in the decarbonization pathways, namely carbon dioxide removal and the decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors. These proposals suggest that just transition can have synergies to climate action (SDG 13), rather than only trade-offs. We urge further research to embrace this paradigm shift in the coal's industry just transition debate.

气候危机要求经济活动向去碳化转变,这对依赖化石资源开采的地区提出了挑战。虽然公正过渡框架通常侧重于依赖煤炭的地区向新产业过渡的长期措施,但它往往忽视了振兴煤炭产业本身的潜力。这一观点为煤炭行业积极配合去碳化工作的公正转型带来了新的机遇。为了证明这种潜力,我们提出了两个创新的概念安排,强调煤炭行业在脱碳途径中提供基本服务的潜在贡献,即二氧化碳清除和难以消减行业的脱碳。这些建议表明,公正过渡可以与气候行动(可持续发展目标 13)产生协同作用,而不仅仅是权衡利弊。我们敦促进一步开展研究,以接受煤炭行业公正转型辩论中的这一范式转变。
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引用次数: 0
Fossil fuel prices and economic policy uncertainty– A regime-switching approach 化石燃料价格与经济政策不确定性--制度转换法
Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-06-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100140
Taofeek Olusola Ayinde , Farouq Adekunmi Adeyemi

The study investigates the impact of fossil fuel prices on the regime-switching dynamics of economic policy uncertainty for the global economy. The period of investigation spans 25 years; comprising monthly data for the period of 1998:01 to 2023:03 and, due to its propensity to accommodate shocks, swings and shifts in the data, the technique of analysis employed is the Markov Switching Dynamic Regression. The principal component analysis (PCA) method was used in obtaining a composite index for the fossil fuel prices. The results obtained show evidence of regime-switching behaviour with five (5) times persistence of low to high global economic policy uncertainty. In addition, the study finds significant counter-cyclical and pro-cyclical effects of fossil fuel prices on global economic policy uncertainty; especially under the regime of high uncertainty. These results are consistent with the results for the composite index of fossil fuel prices but with alternate persistence effects. These suggest that policymakers should be concerned in stabilizing fluctuating fossil fuel prices in order to contain its spiralling and uncertain effects on the global economic policy. More so, governments should devise series of low carbon-emission means for home and industrial uses to ultimately reduce the excessive demand for fossil fuel so as to crash its prices in the international market.

本研究探讨了化石燃料价格对全球经济经济政策不确定性的制度转换动态的影响。调查时间跨度为 25 年,包括 1998:01 至 2023:03 期间的月度数据,由于其易于适应数据中的冲击、波动和变化,因此采用的分析技术是马尔可夫转换动态回归。在获得化石燃料价格综合指数时使用了主成分分析法。研究结果表明,全球经济政策不确定性从低到高持续五(5)次的制度转换行为。此外,研究还发现化石燃料价格对全球经济政策不确定性具有显著的反周期和顺周期影响,尤其是在不确定性较高的情况下。这些结果与化石燃料价格综合指数的结果一致,但具有不同的持续性效应。这表明,决策者应关注稳定化石燃料价格的波动,以遏制其对全球经济政策的螺旋式上升和不确定性影响。此外,政府还应为家庭和工业设计一系列低碳排放的方法,以最终减少对化石燃料的过度需求,从而降低其在国际市场上的价格。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding the relationships among experience with extreme weather events, perceptions of climate change, carbon dependency, and public support for renewable energies in the United States 了解美国极端天气事件的经历、对气候变化的看法、碳依赖以及公众对可再生能源的支持之间的关系
Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100139
Wanyun Shao , Feng Hao

One of the most critical issue facing humanity today is climate change, as the rising incidence of extreme weather events has surpassed the adaptive capacity of human societies. A fundamental transformation of the energy system is urgently needed to address this issue. To gain a better understanding of how exposure to extreme weather events and perceptions of climate change influence support for expanding renewable energies, a nationally representative survey was conducted in 2021, incorporating contextual data on the cost of billion-dollar disasters and carbon dependency. The study's findings suggest that extreme weather events influence the public's perception of climate change, especially among Republicans. Age also plays a role, with younger people more likely to prioritize climate change. Public support for renewable energies is influenced by the perception of climate change as a priority issue, and carbon dependency decreases support for renewable energies. Policymakers should focus on highlighting the link between extreme weather events and climate change, target younger generations with messages about climate change, and consider alternative approaches to supporting carbon-dependent regions. The study has some limitations, including that it is based on cross-sectional data which may not account for potential endogeneity. Additionally, there are no contextual variables at a geographic level finer than the state, and future research should consider adopting measures at finer scales such as county and zip code. The study's theoretical framework could be further validated by integrating observational climate extreme data into understanding individuals’ perception of local weather and climate, and future studies should adopt path analysis or structural equation modelling to validate the proposed path when all relevant variables are included.

当今人类面临的最关键问题之一是气候变化,因为极端天气事件的发生率不断上升,已经超出了人类社会的适应能力。要解决这一问题,迫切需要对能源系统进行根本性改造。为了更好地了解极端天气事件的暴露程度和对气候变化的看法如何影响对扩大可再生能源的支持,我们在 2021 年进行了一项具有全国代表性的调查,其中纳入了有关数十亿美元灾害成本和碳依赖性的背景数据。研究结果表明,极端天气事件会影响公众对气候变化的看法,尤其是共和党人。年龄也有影响,年轻人更倾向于优先考虑气候变化。公众对可再生能源的支持受到将气候变化视为优先问题的观念的影响,而碳依赖会降低对可再生能源的支持。政策制定者应重点强调极端天气事件与气候变化之间的联系,针对年轻一代宣传气候变化信息,并考虑采用其他方法支持碳依赖地区。这项研究有一些局限性,包括它基于横截面数据,可能没有考虑到潜在的内生性。此外,没有比州更细的地理层面的背景变量,未来的研究应考虑采用更细尺度的措施,如县和邮政编码。本研究的理论框架可以通过整合极端气候观测数据来进一步验证,以了解个人对当地天气和气候的感知,未来的研究应采用路径分析或结构方程模型来验证包含所有相关变量后的拟议路径。
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引用次数: 0
Financing green industrial transitions: A Swedish case study 为绿色工业转型融资:瑞典案例研究
Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-05-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100138
Kersti Karltorp , Aaron Maltais

Achieving global climate targets requires massive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from energy-intensive industrial sectors. We investigate whether financing is an important obstacle for radical emission reduction in industry. We study Sweden as a case of a country that is comparatively advanced in its planning for transitions to low-carbon industrial production. We find that the size of capital investments or the availability of financing for these investments is not perceived as a significant obstacle. There are a number of factors explaining this, such as the fact that the companies involved in this study are well-established, large corporates, and hence well placed to finance their transition plans through conventional corporate finance channels, that conditions for market demand are good in the EU, and that many of the firms are in early stages of developing new technologies, when capital need is smaller compared to later stages. We also find that many financial actors express a strong appetite for sustainable investments. Finally, we observe that despite financing not being perceived as an obstacle, there is still a large and important role to play for public actors for reducing the risk of investments and accelerating the pace of change going forward.

实现全球气候目标需要大量减少能源密集型工业部门的温室气体排放。我们研究了融资是否是工业大幅减排的重要障碍。我们以瑞典为例进行研究,该国在向低碳工业生产转型的规划方面相对先进。我们发现,资本投资规模或为这些投资提供资金并不被视为一个重大障碍。造成这种情况的因素有很多,例如,参与本研究的公司都是历史悠久的大型企业,因此完全有能力通过传统的企业融资渠道为其转型计划提供资金;欧盟的市场需求条件良好;许多公司正处于开发新技术的早期阶段,与后期阶段相比,资本需求较小。我们还发现,许多金融参与者对可持续投资表示出强烈的兴趣。最后,我们注意到,尽管融资并不被视为障碍,但公共参与者在降低投资风险和加快未来变革步伐方面仍可发挥巨大而重要的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing sustainable ethanol fuel production from cassava in Vietnam 加强越南木薯乙醇燃料的可持续生产
Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-04-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100136
Truong Xuan Do, Tuan Anh Vu

This study focused on developing a comprehensive model to perform techno-economic analysis and calculate greenhouse gas emissions and net energy balance of cassava-based ethanol production in Vietnam. Four steps were involved in this study: (1) collecting data on the cassava-based ethanol conversion pathway, (2) modeling an ethanol production plant, (3) calculating greenhouse gas emissions and net energy balance, and (4) evaluating economic feasibility. The total capital investment and production cost per liter of ethanol are 0.6 $/l/yr and 0.4 $/l, respectively. The fossil energy consumption and net energy ratio during cultivation, transportation, production, and use of ethanol are 12.4 MJ/l and 1.70, respectively. The total greenhouse gas emissions of cassava-based ethanol production are 1252 gCO2eq/l or 59.1 gCO2eq/MJ, which equals 63 % of greenhouse gas emissions from gasoline. This finding confirms that cassava-based ethanol can be an alternative fuel based on economic feasibility and environmental benefit by reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Vietnam.

本研究的重点是开发一个综合模型,以进行技术经济分析,并计算越南木薯乙醇生产的温室气体排放量和净能量平衡。本研究包括四个步骤:(1)收集木薯乙醇转化途径的数据;(2)建立乙醇生产厂模型;(3)计算温室气体排放量和净能量平衡;(4)评估经济可行性。总资本投资和每升乙醇的生产成本分别为 0.6 美元/升/年和 0.4 美元/升。乙醇在种植、运输、生产和使用过程中的化石能源消耗和净能源比率分别为 12.4 兆焦耳/升和 1.70。木薯乙醇生产的温室气体排放总量为 1252 gCO2eq/l,即 59.1 gCO2eq/MJ,相当于汽油温室气体排放量的 63%。这一结果证实,基于经济可行性和环境效益,木薯乙醇可以成为越南减少温室气体排放的替代燃料。
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引用次数: 0
Role of solar water heater refurbishment in student hostel building to achieve sustainability goals: A techno-economic study 翻新学生宿舍楼太阳能热水器对实现可持续发展目标的作用:技术经济研究
Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-04-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100137
Abhishek Gautam , Sunil Chamoli , Amit Joshi

Solar energy technologies are emerging as strong alternatives to their fossil fuel-based conventional counterparts for various applications. Solar water heating system (SWHS) is one of the most adopted technologies all over the world. Moreover, the building sector consumes significant energy from fossil fuels worldwide to meet hot water demand. This fossil fuel consumption can be reduced with the surplus economic and environmental benefits through the refurbishment of SWHSs in residential buildings. Additionally, the student hostels of academic institutes/Universities have great potential to save energy, environment, and money. In view of the same, the technical, economic, and environmental analyses of refurbishing SWHS in the student hostel are presented in the present paper. The analysis is carried out for the hostel named ‘Raman’ of DIT University, located in Dehradun, India. The energy-saving potentials of flat plate collector (FPC)-based and evacuated tube collector (ETC)-based SWHSs to accomplish the hot water demand of selected site are assessed in comparison with electric geyser. Moreover, the economic analysis is also reported in terms of net present value and benefit-to-cost analysis. Whereas the environmental benefit is presented in terms of reduction in equivalent CO2 emissions through implementing both types of considered SWHSs. It is found that the FPC-based and ETC-based SWHSs can fulfil 60.9 % and 67.6 % of the energy demand to heat the required water. Whereas, both of the systems are found economically as well as environmentally beneficial and ETC-based SWHS is recommended for the selected site. The present study may be useful for the energy planning and management of student hostels under academic institutes/Universities.

在各种应用领域,太阳能技术正在成为以化石燃料为基础的传统技术的有力替代品。太阳能热水系统(SWHS)是全世界采用最多的技术之一。此外,为满足热水需求,世界各地的建筑部门消耗了大量化石燃料能源。通过翻新住宅建筑中的太阳能热水系统,可以减少化石燃料的消耗,并带来额外的经济和环境效益。此外,学术机构/大学的学生宿舍在节能、环保和省钱方面也有很大潜力。有鉴于此,本文对学生宿舍 SWHS 翻新进行了技术、经济和环境分析。分析针对的是位于印度德拉敦的 DIT 大学名为 "拉曼 "的宿舍。与电热水器相比,评估了基于平板集热器(FPC)和真空管集热器(ETC)的 SWHS 在满足选定地点热水需求方面的节能潜力。此外,还从净现值和效益成本分析的角度进行了经济分析。而环境效益则是通过实施这两种类型的 SWHS 减少等量的 CO2 排放量来体现的。研究发现,基于 FPC 和基于 ETC 的 SWHS 可满足 60.9% 和 67.6% 的能源需求,以加热所需的水。这两种系统都具有经济和环境效益,因此建议在选定地点采用基于 ETC 的 SWHS 系统。本研究可能有助于学术机构/大学学生宿舍的能源规划和管理。
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引用次数: 0
Climate mitigation technology for holistic resource management in sub-Saharan Africa: Impact on greenhouse gas emissions 撒哈拉以南非洲整体资源管理的气候减缓技术:对温室气体排放的影响
Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-04-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100135
Ivette Gnitedem Keubeng , Vatis Christian Kemezang

This study investigates the impact of climate change mitigation technologies, specifically agricultural land management and renewable energy consumption and production, on greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the period of 1991 to 2015. Our analysis was conducted using an ARDL panel data model with data from 26 countries representing four sub-regions. The results demonstrated that an increase in renewable energy consumption is significantly associated with a decrease in GHG emissions, with a long-term coefficient of -0.422 and a short-term coefficient of -0.757. Additionally, natural resource rents, agricultural land use and population density have a positive impact on greenhouse gas emissions, with coefficients of 0.0605, 0.392 and 0.690, respectively. However, renewable energy production does not have a significant effect on greenhouse gas emissions. This suggests that promoting renewable energy consumption can be an effective way to combat greenhouse gas emissions in the region, and policymakers should implement policies and programs that encourage and facilitate the adoption of renewable energy whilst taking into consideration the impact of agricultural land use. Overall, this study emphasizes the importance of promoting renewable energy consumption and managing agricultural land use as a viable approach to combating greenhouse gas emissions in sub-Saharan Africa, and highlights the potential of climate mitigation technology as a tool for regulators to optimize policy development and counter climate change.

本研究调查了 1991 年至 2015 年期间气候变化减缓技术(特别是农业用地管理和可再生能源消费与生产)对撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)温室气体排放(GHG)的影响。我们使用 ARDL 面板数据模型进行了分析,数据来自代表四个次区域的 26 个国家。结果表明,可再生能源消费量的增加与温室气体排放量的减少显著相关,长期系数为-0.422,短期系数为-0.757。此外,自然资源租金、农业用地使用和人口密度对温室气体排放也有积极影响,系数分别为 0.0605、0.392 和 0.690。然而,可再生能源生产对温室气体排放的影响并不显著。这表明,促进可再生能源消费是该地区应对温室气体排放的有效途径,政策制定者应实施鼓励和促进采用可再生能源的政策和计划,同时考虑到农业用地的影响。总之,本研究强调了促进可再生能源消费和管理农业用地作为撒哈拉以南非洲地区应对温室气体排放的可行方法的重要性,并突出了气候减缓技术作为监管机构优化政策制定和应对气候变化的工具的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Environmental and climate impacts of a large-scale deployment of green hydrogen in Europe 在欧洲大规模使用绿色氢气对环境和气候的影响
Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-04-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100133
Haiping Shen, Pedro Crespo del Granado, Raquel Santos Jorge, Konstantin Löffler

Green hydrogen is expected to play a vital role in decarbonizing the energy system in Europe. However, large-scale deployment of green hydrogen has associated potential trade-offs in terms of climate and other environmental impacts. This study aims to shed light on a comprehensive sustainability assessment of this large-scale green hydrogen deployment based on the EMPIRE energy system modeling, compared with other decarbonization paths. Process-based Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is applied and connected with the output of the energy system model, revealing 45% extra climate impact caused by the dedicated 50% extra renewable infrastructure to deliver green hydrogen for the demand in the sectors of industry and transport in Europe towards 2050. Whereas, the analysis shows that green hydrogen eventually wins on the climate impact within four designed scenarios (with green hydrogen, with blue hydrogen, without green hydrogen, and baseline), mainly compensated by its clean usage and renewable electricity supply. On the other hand, green hydrogen has a lower performance in other environmental impacts including human toxicity, ecotoxicity, mineral use, land use, and water depletion. Furthermore, a monetary valuation of Life Cycle Impact (LCI) is estimated to aggregate 13 categories of environmental impacts between different technologies. Results indicate that the total monetized LCI cost of green hydrogen production is relatively lower than that of blue hydrogen. In overview, a large-scale green hydrogen deployment potentially shifts the environmental pressure from climate and fossil resource use to human health, mineral resource use, and ecosystem damage due to its higher material consumption of the infrastructure.

绿色氢气有望在欧洲能源系统去碳化方面发挥重要作用。然而,大规模部署绿色氢气可能会对气候和其他环境造成影响。本研究旨在基于 EMPIRE 能源系统建模,与其他去碳化途径相比,对大规模部署绿色氢气进行全面的可持续性评估。研究采用了基于过程的生命周期评估(LCA),并将其与能源系统模型的输出结果相联系,结果显示,为满足 2050 年欧洲工业和交通部门对绿色氢气的需求,专门增建 50%的可再生基础设施会对气候造成 45% 的额外影响。分析表明,在四种设计方案(含绿色氢气、含蓝色氢气、不含绿色氢气和基线)中,绿色氢气最终在气候影响方面胜出,这主要得益于其清洁使用和可再生电力供应。另一方面,绿色氢气在其他环境影响方面的表现较差,包括人类毒性、生态毒性、矿物使用、土地使用和水消耗。此外,还对生命周期影响(LCI)的货币估值进行了估算,汇总了不同技术对环境影响的 13 个类别。结果表明,绿色制氢的货币化 LCI 总成本相对低于蓝色制氢。总之,由于基础设施的材料消耗较高,大规模部署绿色制氢可能会将环境压力从气候和化石资源使用转移到人类健康、矿产资源使用和生态系统破坏方面。
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Energy and climate change
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