Energy and climate change最新文献

This paper examines the MARKAL-NETL modeling results for the Energy Modeling Forum study on Deep Decarbonization and High Electrification Scenarios for North America (EMF 37) with a specific focus on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies and opportunities under different scenario guidelines, policies, and technological advancements.

The results demonstrate that CDR, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), direct air capture (DAC), and afforestation, are key technologies in deep decarbonization scenarios and account for 40–60 % of avoided carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions annually. From 2025 to 2050, cumulative CO₂ abatement by CDR technologies will range from 37 to 47 billion tons (GtCO₂), or more than 2 GtCO₂ annually by 2050. The potential scale of CDR and its impact depends on the advancement and costs of energy supply and demand technologies, end-use sector electrification, and availability and costs of CDR. Results show that the price of carbon is substantially lower when advanced technologies are available, particularly in the EMF 37 carbon management scenarios [1].

While BECCS deployment is likely to be constrained for environmental and/or political reasons, the results display relatively large-scale BECCS deployment. The study found that BECCS could make a substantial contribution to emissions reductions after 2035, and, in the medium term, CO₂ sequestration by BECCS will depend on CO₂ price; BECCS deployment starts at a carbon price of around $70/tCO₂. Long-term CO₂ sequestration by BECCS increases in all scenarios, reaching the same annual level of ∼890 MtCO₂ by 2050 in net-zero CO₂ scenarios. According to the modeling results, DAC acts as a true backstop technology at carbon prices of around $600/tCO₂.

The coal industry is enjoying long-term investments in new coal-fired power generation even as coal mining and production have been declining. Recent conflict in Europe has disrupted energy supplies and reinvigorated coal use. The duration of the retrenchment to coal may be short lived, but the end point of “short lived” remains uncertain. The present state of the coal industry and the investment community that underpins its growth obviates any meaningful acceleration in coal's phaseout as a core fuel resource. However, coal can be recast as a catalyst for achieving clean energy and economy futures. This can be done by seeing coal hydrocarbon deposits and byproducts of coal processing as long-term multi-asset resource platforms (MARPS), which integrate multiple new revenue streams on coal lands other than just mining coal as a fuel. New value comes from repurposing and leveraging mining lands, harvesting minor and trace elements from coal, and creating new revenue from harvesting hydrogen and carbon materials from coal bed methane, raw coal, coal tailings, and fly ash residues. We make the case that Coal Mining Enterprise (CME) value can be enhanced by ending the use of coal-as-fuel and creating new value streams serving existing and emerging markets by fully assessing, evaluating, and utilizing the portfolio of natural resources that are collocated within a typical coalfield. Coal sector investors tend not to see undervaluation in coal assets because CMEs focus predominantly on mining, processing, and shipping coal-as-fuel for electricity production and industrial processes. Formulating and asking the correct questions about how much value is being left on the table may bring innovation into a new frontier of coal as multi-asset resource platforms. Co-benefits of the approach include job creation across many viable emerging markets where “refining” coal is a competitive source of factor inputs. Moreover, it aids governments in aggressive support of coal industry transformations, through which lasting coal transition justice can be achieved. Ironically, despite all the technological and market uncertainties, coal in the 21st century can be, and should be, a critical success factor in achieving clean energy and economy futures.

The climate crisis requires the shift towards the decarbonization of economic activities, challenging regions reliant on fossil resource extraction. While the just transition framework typically focuses on long-term measures to transition coal-dependent regions to new industries, it often overlooks the potential for revitalizing the coal industry itself. This perspective introduces new opportunities to just transitions in which the coal industry actively collaborates to decarbonization efforts. To demonstrate this potential, we propose two innovative conceptual arrangements that highlight the potential contribution of the coal sector to provide essential services in the decarbonization pathways, namely carbon dioxide removal and the decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors. These proposals suggest that just transition can have synergies to climate action (SDG 13), rather than only trade-offs. We urge further research to embrace this paradigm shift in the coal's industry just transition debate.

The study investigates the impact of fossil fuel prices on the regime-switching dynamics of economic policy uncertainty for the global economy. The period of investigation spans 25 years; comprising monthly data for the period of 1998:01 to 2023:03 and, due to its propensity to accommodate shocks, swings and shifts in the data, the technique of analysis employed is the Markov Switching Dynamic Regression. The principal component analysis (PCA) method was used in obtaining a composite index for the fossil fuel prices. The results obtained show evidence of regime-switching behaviour with five (5) times persistence of low to high global economic policy uncertainty. In addition, the study finds significant counter-cyclical and pro-cyclical effects of fossil fuel prices on global economic policy uncertainty; especially under the regime of high uncertainty. These results are consistent with the results for the composite index of fossil fuel prices but with alternate persistence effects. These suggest that policymakers should be concerned in stabilizing fluctuating fossil fuel prices in order to contain its spiralling and uncertain effects on the global economic policy. More so, governments should devise series of low carbon-emission means for home and industrial uses to ultimately reduce the excessive demand for fossil fuel so as to crash its prices in the international market.

One of the most critical issue facing humanity today is climate change, as the rising incidence of extreme weather events has surpassed the adaptive capacity of human societies. A fundamental transformation of the energy system is urgently needed to address this issue. To gain a better understanding of how exposure to extreme weather events and perceptions of climate change influence support for expanding renewable energies, a nationally representative survey was conducted in 2021, incorporating contextual data on the cost of billion-dollar disasters and carbon dependency. The study's findings suggest that extreme weather events influence the public's perception of climate change, especially among Republicans. Age also plays a role, with younger people more likely to prioritize climate change. Public support for renewable energies is influenced by the perception of climate change as a priority issue, and carbon dependency decreases support for renewable energies. Policymakers should focus on highlighting the link between extreme weather events and climate change, target younger generations with messages about climate change, and consider alternative approaches to supporting carbon-dependent regions. The study has some limitations, including that it is based on cross-sectional data which may not account for potential endogeneity. Additionally, there are no contextual variables at a geographic level finer than the state, and future research should consider adopting measures at finer scales such as county and zip code. The study's theoretical framework could be further validated by integrating observational climate extreme data into understanding individuals’ perception of local weather and climate, and future studies should adopt path analysis or structural equation modelling to validate the proposed path when all relevant variables are included.

Achieving global climate targets requires massive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from energy-intensive industrial sectors. We investigate whether financing is an important obstacle for radical emission reduction in industry. We study Sweden as a case of a country that is comparatively advanced in its planning for transitions to low-carbon industrial production. We find that the size of capital investments or the availability of financing for these investments is not perceived as a significant obstacle. There are a number of factors explaining this, such as the fact that the companies involved in this study are well-established, large corporates, and hence well placed to finance their transition plans through conventional corporate finance channels, that conditions for market demand are good in the EU, and that many of the firms are in early stages of developing new technologies, when capital need is smaller compared to later stages. We also find that many financial actors express a strong appetite for sustainable investments. Finally, we observe that despite financing not being perceived as an obstacle, there is still a large and important role to play for public actors for reducing the risk of investments and accelerating the pace of change going forward.

This study focused on developing a comprehensive model to perform techno-economic analysis and calculate greenhouse gas emissions and net energy balance of cassava-based ethanol production in Vietnam. Four steps were involved in this study: (1) collecting data on the cassava-based ethanol conversion pathway, (2) modeling an ethanol production plant, (3) calculating greenhouse gas emissions and net energy balance, and (4) evaluating economic feasibility. The total capital investment and production cost per liter of ethanol are 0.6 $/l/yr and 0.4 $/l, respectively. The fossil energy consumption and net energy ratio during cultivation, transportation, production, and use of ethanol are 12.4 MJ/l and 1.70, respectively. The total greenhouse gas emissions of cassava-based ethanol production are 1252 gCO₂eq/l or 59.1 g_CO2eq/MJ, which equals 63 % of greenhouse gas emissions from gasoline. This finding confirms that cassava-based ethanol can be an alternative fuel based on economic feasibility and environmental benefit by reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Vietnam.

Solar energy technologies are emerging as strong alternatives to their fossil fuel-based conventional counterparts for various applications. Solar water heating system (SWHS) is one of the most adopted technologies all over the world. Moreover, the building sector consumes significant energy from fossil fuels worldwide to meet hot water demand. This fossil fuel consumption can be reduced with the surplus economic and environmental benefits through the refurbishment of SWHSs in residential buildings. Additionally, the student hostels of academic institutes/Universities have great potential to save energy, environment, and money. In view of the same, the technical, economic, and environmental analyses of refurbishing SWHS in the student hostel are presented in the present paper. The analysis is carried out for the hostel named ‘Raman’ of DIT University, located in Dehradun, India. The energy-saving potentials of flat plate collector (FPC)-based and evacuated tube collector (ETC)-based SWHSs to accomplish the hot water demand of selected site are assessed in comparison with electric geyser. Moreover, the economic analysis is also reported in terms of net present value and benefit-to-cost analysis. Whereas the environmental benefit is presented in terms of reduction in equivalent CO₂ emissions through implementing both types of considered SWHSs. It is found that the FPC-based and ETC-based SWHSs can fulfil 60.9 % and 67.6 % of the energy demand to heat the required water. Whereas, both of the systems are found economically as well as environmentally beneficial and ETC-based SWHS is recommended for the selected site. The present study may be useful for the energy planning and management of student hostels under academic institutes/Universities.

This study investigates the impact of climate change mitigation technologies, specifically agricultural land management and renewable energy consumption and production, on greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the period of 1991 to 2015. Our analysis was conducted using an ARDL panel data model with data from 26 countries representing four sub-regions. The results demonstrated that an increase in renewable energy consumption is significantly associated with a decrease in GHG emissions, with a long-term coefficient of -0.422 and a short-term coefficient of -0.757. Additionally, natural resource rents, agricultural land use and population density have a positive impact on greenhouse gas emissions, with coefficients of 0.0605, 0.392 and 0.690, respectively. However, renewable energy production does not have a significant effect on greenhouse gas emissions. This suggests that promoting renewable energy consumption can be an effective way to combat greenhouse gas emissions in the region, and policymakers should implement policies and programs that encourage and facilitate the adoption of renewable energy whilst taking into consideration the impact of agricultural land use. Overall, this study emphasizes the importance of promoting renewable energy consumption and managing agricultural land use as a viable approach to combating greenhouse gas emissions in sub-Saharan Africa, and highlights the potential of climate mitigation technology as a tool for regulators to optimize policy development and counter climate change.

Green hydrogen is expected to play a vital role in decarbonizing the energy system in Europe. However, large-scale deployment of green hydrogen has associated potential trade-offs in terms of climate and other environmental impacts. This study aims to shed light on a comprehensive sustainability assessment of this large-scale green hydrogen deployment based on the EMPIRE energy system modeling, compared with other decarbonization paths. Process-based Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is applied and connected with the output of the energy system model, revealing 45% extra climate impact caused by the dedicated 50% extra renewable infrastructure to deliver green hydrogen for the demand in the sectors of industry and transport in Europe towards 2050. Whereas, the analysis shows that green hydrogen eventually wins on the climate impact within four designed scenarios (with green hydrogen, with blue hydrogen, without green hydrogen, and baseline), mainly compensated by its clean usage and renewable electricity supply. On the other hand, green hydrogen has a lower performance in other environmental impacts including human toxicity, ecotoxicity, mineral use, land use, and water depletion. Furthermore, a monetary valuation of Life Cycle Impact (LCI) is estimated to aggregate 13 categories of environmental impacts between different technologies. Results indicate that the total monetized LCI cost of green hydrogen production is relatively lower than that of blue hydrogen. In overview, a large-scale green hydrogen deployment potentially shifts the environmental pressure from climate and fossil resource use to human health, mineral resource use, and ecosystem damage due to its higher material consumption of the infrastructure.