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Quantifying the impacts of synoptic weather patterns on North Sea wind power production and ramp events under a changing climate 量化气候变化下天气模式对北海风力发电和斜坡事件的影响
Pub Date : 2023-07-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100113
Bedassa R. Cheneka , Simon J. Watson , Sukanta Basu

Only a few studies on the overall impact of climate change on offshore wind power production and wind power ramps in the North Sea region have been published. This study focuses on the characteristics of expected wind power production and wind power ramps in the future climate aided by the classification of circulations patterns using a self-organizing map (SOM). A SOM is used to cluster high-resolution CMIP5-CORDEX sea level pressure data into 30 European area weather patterns. These patterns are used to better understand wind power production trends and any potential changes. An increased frequency of occurrence and extended persistence of high pressure systems lasting at least 24 h is projected in the future. Whereas a contrasting reducing tendency for low-pressure systems is estimated. No significant evidence is seen for a change in wind power capacity factor over the North Sea, though tentative evidence is seen for a reduction in wind power ramps. Annual energy production is seen to be dominated by a small number of weather patterns with westerly, south-westerly or north-westerly winds. Future wind power production is projected to become less from westerly winds and more from south-westerly and north-westerly flows. Ramp up events are primarily associated with strong south-westerly winds or weather patterns with a weak pressure gradient. Ramp down events have a stronger association with more north-westerly flow. In a future climate, a reduction in ramp up events associated with weak pressure gradients is projected.

关于气候变化对北海地区海上风电生产和风力发电坡道的总体影响的研究只有少数发表。本研究通过使用自组织图(SOM)对环流模式进行分类,重点研究了未来气候下预期风力发电和风力坡道的特征。SOM用于将高分辨率CMIP5-CORDEX海平面压力数据聚类到30个欧洲地区的天气模式。这些模式用于更好地了解风力发电的趋势和任何潜在的变化。预计未来高压系统的发生频率将增加,持续时间至少为24小时。而低压系统则有相反的减少趋势。虽然有初步的证据表明风力坡道减少了,但没有明显的证据表明北海风力发电容量因子发生了变化。每年的能源生产被认为是由西风、西南风或西北风的少数天气模式主导的。预计未来的风力发电将越来越少地来自西风,而更多地来自西南和西北风。上升事件主要与强烈的西南风或气压梯度较弱的天气模式有关。斜坡下降事件与更多的西北流有更强的联系。预估在未来气候中,与弱气压梯度相关的上升事件将减少。
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引用次数: 0
A machine learning approach for resource mapping analysis of greenhouse gas removal technologies 一种用于温室气体去除技术资源映射分析的机器学习方法
Pub Date : 2023-07-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100112
Jude O. Asibor, Peter T. Clough, Seyed Ali Nabavi, Vasilije Manovic

In this study, machine learning (ML) was applied to investigate the suitability of a location to deploy five greenhouse gas removal (GGR) methods within a global context, based on a location's bio-geophysical and techno-economic characteristics. The GGR methods considered are forestation, enhanced weathering (EW), direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and biochar. An unsupervised ML (hierarchical clustering) technique was applied to label the dataset. Seven supervised ML algorithms were applied in training and testing the labelled dataset with the k-Nearest neighbour (k-NN), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Random Forest algorithms having the highest performance accuracies of 96%, 98% and 100% respectively. A case study of Scotland's suitability to deploy these GGR methods was carried out with obtained results indicating a high correlation between the ML model results and information in the available literature. While the performance accuracy of the ML models was typically high (76 - 100%), an assessment of its decision-making logic (model interpretation) revealed some limitations regarding the impact of the various input variables on the outputs.

在本研究中,基于一个地点的生物地球物理和技术经济特征,应用机器学习(ML)来调查一个地点在全球范围内部署五种温室气体去除(GGR)方法的适用性。考虑的GGR方法包括造林、增强风化(EW)、直接空气碳捕获和储存(DACCS)、碳捕获和储存的生物能源(BECCS)和生物炭。采用无监督ML(分层聚类)技术对数据集进行标记。7种有监督的机器学习算法应用于训练和测试标记数据集,其中k-近邻(k-NN)、人工神经网络(ANN)和随机森林算法的性能准确率最高,分别为96%、98%和100%。对苏格兰部署这些GGR方法的适用性进行了案例研究,获得的结果表明ML模型结果与现有文献中的信息之间存在高度相关性。虽然机器学习模型的性能精度通常很高(76 - 100%),但对其决策逻辑(模型解释)的评估显示,各种输入变量对输出的影响存在一些局限性。
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引用次数: 0
Accuracy assessment of energy projections for China by Energy Information Administration and International Energy Agency 能源情报署和国际能源署对中国能源预测的准确性评估
Pub Date : 2023-07-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100111
Hui Shen, Xin Wen, Evelina Trutnevyte

Energy projections are of great importance to energy policies but have consistently shown noticeable and repeated errors, and thus require accuracy assessment for improvement. International Energy Outlook (IEO) of the US Energy Information Administration and World Energy Outlook (WEO) of the International Energy Agency publish widely used energy projections, whose accuracy for China – the largest energy consuming economy and carbon dioxide emitter – has been rarely explored. This study investigates accuracy of China's reference energy projections in the annual reports of IEO and WEO from 2004 to 2019. Results show that most projections in IEO and WEO underestimated China's total energy consumption, particularly over longer projection horizons. The use of coal, natural gas and renewable energy tended to be underestimated, and nuclear energy was overestimated. The errors of industry and transport sectors were comparable and higher than for the other sectors. WEO showed substantially better accuracy than IEO in projections of total energy consumption, primary energy resources (except for nuclear energy) and end-use sectors. Projection horizon, errors in projected population's size, oil price and gross domestic product per capita were four leading factors related to the projection errors and hence they require particular attention in future modeling. For policy makers, this study shows that, if IEO and WEO projections are used to guide the policy making, China needs more aggressive policies in order to achieve the carbon neutrality goal.

能源预测对能源政策非常重要,但一直显示出明显和反复的错误,因此需要对其准确性进行评估以加以改进。美国能源情报署(eia)的《国际能源展望》(IEO)和国际能源署(iea)的《世界能源展望》(WEO)发布了被广泛使用的能源预测,但这些预测对中国这个最大的能源消耗经济体和二氧化碳排放国的准确性却鲜有探讨。本研究考察了2004 - 2019年IEO和WEO年度报告中中国参考能源预测的准确性。结果表明,IEO和WEO的大多数预测都低估了中国的能源消费总量,特别是在较长的预测范围内。煤炭、天然气和可再生能源的使用往往被低估,而核能则被高估。工业和运输部门的误差与其他部门相当,且高于其他部门。《世界经济展望》在预测总能源消耗、初级能源(核能除外)和最终用途部门方面比《环境展望》准确得多。预测范围、预测人口规模的误差、石油价格和人均国内生产总值是与预测误差有关的四个主要因素,因此在今后建模时需要特别注意。对于政策制定者来说,本研究表明,如果使用IEO和WEO的预测来指导政策制定,中国需要更积极的政策来实现碳中和目标。
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引用次数: 0
Swiss electricity supply scenarios: Perspectives from the young generation 瑞士电力供应情景:来自年轻一代的视角
Pub Date : 2023-05-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100109
Simona Holzer , Alexane Dubois , Julia Cousse, Georgios Xexakis, Evelina Trutnevyte

While numerous studies have argued that public preferences need to be considered in energy transitions, the public has rarely informed the choice of normative scenarios from energy systems modelling. Using the case of Swiss electricity supply in 2035, we focus on a specific citizen group—school pupils of 10 to 18 years old—and use educational workshops to form and elicit their preferences in a way that helps choose scenarios from modelling. Initially, the 164 involved pupils had a simplistic understanding that future electricity supply mainly needs solar PV and electricity savings, but after our workshops they developed a more complete view that involved other technologies. The mean preferred scenario of the pupils for modelling relied on 88% renewable electricity, complemented by small shares of nuclear power, natural gas-based generation, and almost no net electricity imports. When compared to preferred scenarios for modelling elicited from 79 adult citizens and 60 energy experts in Switzerland, the pupils were less ambitious, since adults and experts preferred scenarios with 99% and 97% renewable sources on average. Most pupils opted for much more renewable electricity and less fossil fuel-based generation and imports than existing 82 model-based scenarios published in 2011–2018, indicating that the pupils’ preferred scenarios should complement existing scenarios.

虽然许多研究认为,在能源转型中需要考虑公众的偏好,但公众很少从能源系统建模中得知规范情景的选择。以2035年瑞士的电力供应为例,我们将重点放在一个特定的公民群体上——10至18岁的学生——并利用教育研讨会来形成和引出他们的偏好,从而帮助他们从建模中选择场景。最初,参与的164名学生有一个简单的理解,即未来的电力供应主要需要太阳能光伏和节电,但在我们的研讨会之后,他们发展了一个涉及其他技术的更完整的观点。学生们对模型的平均偏好情景依赖于88%的可再生电力,辅以少量的核能,天然气发电,几乎没有净电力进口。与瑞士79名成年公民和60名能源专家提出的首选情景相比,学生们的雄心较小,因为成年人和专家平均更喜欢99%和97%可再生能源的情景。与2011-2018年公布的82个基于模型的情景相比,大多数学生选择了更多的可再生电力,更少的基于化石燃料的发电和进口,这表明学生首选的情景应该补充现有的情景。
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引用次数: 0
Land use trade-offs in decarbonization of electricity generation in the American West 美国西部发电脱碳中的土地利用权衡
Pub Date : 2023-05-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100107
Neha Patankar , Xiili Sarkela-Basset , Greg Schivley , Emily Leslie , Jesse Jenkins

Land-use conflicts may constrain the unprecedented rates of renewable energy deployment required to meet the decarbonization goals of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). This paper employs geospatially resolved data and a detailed electricity system capacity expansion model to generate 160 affordable, zero-carbon electricity supply portfolios for the American west and evaluates the land use impacts of each portfolio. Less than 4% of all sites suitable for solar development and 17% of all wind sites appear in this set of portfolios. Of these sites, 53% of solar and 85% of wind sites exhibit higher development risk and potential for land-related conflict. We thus find that clean electricity goals cannot be achieved affordably without substantial renewable development on sites with potential for land use conflict. However, this paper identifies significant flexibility across western U.S. states to site renewable energy or alter the composition of the electricity supply portfolio to ameliorate potential conflicts.

土地使用冲突可能会限制可再生能源部署的前所未有的速度,以满足通货膨胀减少法案(IRA)的脱碳目标。本文采用地理空间分辨率数据和详细的电力系统容量扩展模型,为美国西部产生160个可负担的零碳电力供应组合,并评估每个组合的土地利用影响。不到4%的适合开发太阳能的地点和17%的适合开发风能的地点出现在这组投资组合中。在这些站点中,53%的太阳能站点和85%的风能站点表现出更高的开发风险和与土地相关的潜在冲突。因此,我们发现,如果不在可能发生土地使用冲突的地点进行大量可再生能源开发,清洁电力目标就无法实现。然而,本文确定了美国西部各州在可再生能源选址或改变电力供应组合构成方面的重大灵活性,以改善潜在的冲突。
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引用次数: 0
Temporally detailed modeling and analysis of global net zero energy systems focusing on variable renewable energy 基于可变可再生能源的全球净零能源系统的临时详细建模与分析
Pub Date : 2023-04-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100108
Takashi OTSUKI , Ryoichi KOMIYAMA , Yasumasa FUJII , Hiroko NAKAMURA

This study newly develops a recursive-dynamic global energy model with an hourly temporal resolution for electricity and hydrogen balances, aiming to assess the role of variable renewable energy (VRE) in a carbon-neutral world. This model, formulated as a large-scale linear programming model (with 500 million each of variables and constraints), calculates the energy supply for 100 regions by 2050. The detailed temporal resolution enables the model to incorporate the variable output of VRE and system integration options, such as batteries, water electrolysis, curtailment, and the flexible charging of battery electric vehicles. Optimization results suggest that combing various technical options suitable for local energy situations is critical to reducing global CO2 emissions cost-effectively. Not only VRE but also CCS-equipped gas-fired and biomass-fired power plants largely contribute to decarbonizing power supply. The share of VRE in global power generation in 2050 is estimated to be 57% in a cost-effective case. The results also imply economic challenges for an energy system based on 100% renewable energy. For example, the average mitigation cost in 2050 is 69USD/tCO2 in the cost-effective case, while it increases to 139USD/tCO2 in the 100% renewable case. The robustness of this argument is tested by sensitivity analyses.

本研究新开发了一种递归动态全球能源模型,具有电力和氢平衡的小时时间分辨率,旨在评估可变可再生能源(VRE)在碳中和世界中的作用。该模型采用大规模线性规划模型(变量和约束各为5亿),计算了到2050年100个地区的能源供应情况。详细的时间分辨率使模型能够纳入VRE的可变输出和系统集成选项,例如电池,水电解,缩减和电池电动汽车的灵活充电。优化结果表明,结合适合当地能源情况的各种技术选择对于经济有效地减少全球二氧化碳排放至关重要。除了VRE,配备ccs的燃气和生物质发电厂也对脱碳电力供应做出了很大贡献。在具有成本效益的情况下,2050年VRE在全球发电中的份额估计为57%。这一结果也暗示了100%基于可再生能源的能源系统面临的经济挑战。例如,在具有成本效益的情况下,2050年的平均减排成本为69美元/吨二氧化碳,而在100%可再生的情况下,这一成本增加到139美元/吨二氧化碳。这一论点的稳健性通过敏感性分析得到了检验。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling the energy mix and economic costs of deep decarbonization scenarios in a CGE framework CGE框架中深度脱碳情景的能源组合和经济成本建模
Pub Date : 2023-04-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100106
Elisabeth A. Gilmore , Madanmohan Ghosh , Peter Johnston , Muhammad-Shahid Siddiqui , Nick Macaluso

This paper investigates the energy mix and welfare implication of deep decarbonization pathways with net negative emission technologies for North America and globally to 2050 in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework. The analysis uses an integrated assessment model (IAM), the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), to develop three bounding emission scenarios: i) A business as usual pathway (BAU), ii) A pathway bounded by the Nationally Determined Contributions and attaining a 2°C end of century target (NDC-2°C), and iii) An increasing ambition pathway that attains a 1.5°C end of century target (NDC-1.5°C). The energy mix and economic impacts of these emissions pathways are then evaluated using Environment Canada's Multi-Sector, Multi-Regional (EC-MSMR) CGE model. When bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and direct air capture (DAC) are available, they play an important role in achieving emission reductions. Allowing the use of DAC preserves an additional 5% to 20% of the share of fossil fuels in North America. Including DAC in deep decarbonization pathways lowers the welfare loss by up to ∼1% globally compared to those without DAC in 2050. This finding is robust to both the estimated price of and constraints on DAC deployment. Increasing the potential for fuel switching in the CGE model further reduces the welfare effects for deep decarbonization.

本文在可计算一般平衡(CGE)框架下研究了北美和全球到2050年具有净负排放技术的深度脱碳途径的能源结构和福利含义。该分析使用综合评估模型(IAM),即全球变化评估模型(GCAM),制定了三种边界排放情景:i)一切照常的途径(BAU), ii)以国家自主贡献为边界的途径,实现本世纪末2°C的目标(NDC-2°C),以及iii)不断增加的雄心途径,实现本世纪末1.5°C的目标(NDC-1.5°C)。然后使用加拿大环境部的多部门,多区域(EC-MSMR) CGE模型对这些排放途径的能源结构和经济影响进行评估。当具有碳捕获和储存(BECCS)和直接空气捕获(DAC)的生物能源可用时,它们在实现减排方面发挥着重要作用。允许使用DAC可使北美化石燃料的份额增加5%至20%。到2050年,在深度脱碳途径中纳入DAC可使全球福利损失比不纳入DAC的减少高达1%。这一发现对于DAC部署的估计价格和限制都是可靠的。在CGE模型中增加燃料转换的潜力进一步降低了深度脱碳的福利效应。
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引用次数: 2
Quantile integration order of decarbonized energy series using a Fourier function in the deterministic trend 用确定趋势的傅里叶函数计算脱碳能源序列的分位数积分顺序
Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100105
Nicolas Schneider , Yifei Cai

The logic of analysing the stationary features in energy series lays in the policy potentials that unit root assessments confer. This paper identifies the integration properties of renewable energy consumption series in Germany, Italy, Poland, France, Spain, and Netherlands: six energy leaders but also top carbon emitters in the Schengen area. A stepwise integration property testing framework is applied on data spanning more than five decades. It includes a set of univariate unit root tests (ADF, PP, DFGLS, and Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin tests); stationary procedures allowing for endogenously determined structural breaks in the intercept and the time-trends (CMR, ZA); double breaks in the deterministic trend (LS); along with the Bahmani-Oskooee et al. (2017)’s extension of the Koenker and Xiao (2004) Fourier Quantile Unit Root test incorporating smooth breaks in the deterministic trend. In neither France, nor Italy, Poland, or Spain, renewable energy consumption series reject the null hypothesis of non-stationarity. This contrasts with German data displaying quantiles-varied integrational properties, whereas the Netherlands presents stable stationary features along each stage of the procedure. In addition to prospects for future research, policy suggestions involving bridging fuels are proposed to offer a secure and less volatile supply of green energies, reach IPCC climate targets, and avoid transitory shocks transmitted back to macroeconomic variables.

分析能源序列平稳特征的逻辑在于单位根评估所赋予的政策潜力。本文确定了德国、意大利、波兰、法国、西班牙和荷兰这六个能源领导者和申根地区最大的碳排放国的可再生能源消费系列的整合特性。对50多年的数据应用了逐步集成性能测试框架。它包括一组单变量单位根检验(ADF、PP、DFGLS和kwiatkowski - philips - schmidt - shin检验);静止过程允许在截距和时间趋势中内生地确定结构断裂(CMR, ZA);确定性趋势的双重中断(LS);以及Bahmani-Oskooee等人(2017)对Koenker和Xiao(2004)的傅立叶分位数单位根检验的扩展,该检验包含确定性趋势中的平滑中断。无论是在法国、意大利、波兰还是西班牙,可再生能源消费序列都不符合非平稳性的零假设。这与德国的数据形成鲜明对比,显示分位数变化的积分特性,而荷兰在过程的每个阶段呈现稳定的平稳特征。除了对未来研究的展望外,还提出了涉及过渡燃料的政策建议,以提供安全且波动较小的绿色能源供应,实现IPCC的气候目标,并避免传递回宏观经济变量的短暂冲击。
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引用次数: 1
Net-zero CO2 by 2050 scenarios for the United States in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study 能源建模论坛第37期研究中美国2050年净零二氧化碳情景
Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100104
Morgan Browning , James McFarland , John Bistline , Gale Boyd , Matteo Muratori , Matthew Binsted , Chioke Harris , Trieu Mai , Geoff Blanford , Jae Edmonds , Allen A. Fawcett , Ozge Kaplan , John Weyant

The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 37 study on deep decarbonization and high electrification analyzed a set of scenarios that achieve economy-wide net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in North America by mid-century, exploring the implications of different technology evolutions, policies, and behavioral assumptions affecting energy supply and demand. For this paper, 16 modeling teams reported resulting emissions projections, energy system evolution, and economic activity. This paper provides an overview of the study, documents the scenario design, provides a roadmap for complementary forthcoming papers from this study, and offers an initial summary and comparison of results for net-zero CO2 by 2050 scenarios in the United States. We compare various outcomes across models and scenarios, such as emissions, energy use, fuel mix evolution, and technology adoption. Despite disparate model structure and sources for input assumptions, there is broad agreement in energy system trends across models towards deep decarbonization of the electricity sector coupled with increased end-use electrification of buildings, transportation, and to a lesser extent industry. All models deploy negative emissions technologies (e.g., direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) in addition to land sinks to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions. Important differences emerged in the results, showing divergent pathways among end-use sectors with deep electrification and grid decarbonization as necessary but not sufficient conditions to achieve net zero. These differences will be explored in the papers complementing this study to inform efforts to reach net-zero emissions and future research needs.

能源建模论坛(EMF)第37届关于深度脱碳和高电气化的研究分析了到本世纪中叶在北美实现全经济净零二氧化碳(CO2)排放的一系列情景,探讨了影响能源供需的不同技术演变、政策和行为假设的含义。在本文中,16个建模团队报告了由此产生的排放预测、能源系统演变和经济活动。本文概述了该研究,记录了情景设计,为本研究即将发表的补充论文提供了路线图,并对美国到2050年净零二氧化碳情景的结果进行了初步总结和比较。我们比较了不同模型和情景的不同结果,如排放、能源使用、燃料混合演变和技术采用。尽管不同的模型结构和输入假设的来源不同,但在电力部门深度脱碳以及建筑、交通和较小程度的工业的最终用途电气化增加的模型之间的能源系统趋势方面存在广泛的共识。除陆地汇外,所有模式都采用负排放技术(例如,直接空气捕获和具有碳捕获和储存的生物能源),以实现二氧化碳净零排放。结果中出现了重要的差异,显示了终端使用部门之间的不同路径,深度电气化和电网脱碳是实现净零的必要条件,但不是充分条件。这些差异将在补充本研究的论文中进行探讨,为实现净零排放的努力和未来的研究需求提供信息。
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引用次数: 10
Expanding carbon removal to the Global South: Thematic concerns on systems, justice, and climate governance 将碳去除扩大到全球南方:关于系统、司法和气候治理的专题关注
Pub Date : 2023-04-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100103
Benjamin K. Sovacool

Conversations on how to assess, innovate, and develop policies for carbon removal are for now largely confined to the Global North – reflecting a concentration of academic interest (and concern), innovation capacity, early funding initiatives, and policy path-dependence in climate, energy, and land-use. However, future population growth, emissions trajectories, and even concentrations of economic (and technological power) are shifting to the Global South. Here, after explaining the positionality of the author, this paper summarizes the perspectives and concerns of 90 key academics, technologists, and policy entrepreneurs on expanding carbon removal assessment, innovation, and policy beyond early foci within (northern) Europe, the US, Japan, and Australia. It explores how concerns about systems (coupling and infrastructure deployment), justice (equity and inclusion), and governance (including pledges, funding, and offsets) markedly differ across Global North and Global South dynamics. It discusses how such issues intersect with each other, and concludes with insights for research and policy.

关于如何评估、创新和制定碳去除政策的对话目前主要局限于全球北方——这反映了气候、能源和土地利用领域的学术兴趣(和关注)、创新能力、早期资助计划和政策路径依赖的集中。然而,未来的人口增长、排放轨迹,甚至经济(和技术力量)的集中都在向全球南方转移。本文在解释了作者的立场后,总结了90位主要学者、技术专家和政策企业家对扩大欧洲(北部)、美国、日本和澳大利亚的碳去除评估、创新和政策的观点和担忧。它探讨了对系统(耦合和基础设施部署)、正义(公平和包容)和治理(包括承诺、资金和补偿)的关注如何在全球北方和全球南方的动态中显著不同。它讨论了这些问题如何相互交叉,并总结了研究和政策的见解。
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引用次数: 2
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Energy and climate change
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