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Navigating the selection of renewable energy trading partners: A multi-objective optimization approach 导航选择可再生能源贸易伙伴:多目标优化方法
IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100197
Erik Jansen , Mile Mišić , Kai Schulze , Michèle Knodt , Marc E. Pfetsch
Decarbonizing economies and energy systems is urgently needed in order to meet current climate change mitigation targets. However, many countries, particularly in Europe, will not be able to meet their rapidly growing demand for renewable energy by expanding domestic production alone in the near future. Consequently, these countries are planning to import renewable energy using chemical carriers such as hydrogen and metals. This raises the question of which countries to partner with for renewable energy trade. Selecting the appropriate trading partners is a complex task that requires balancing several potentially conflicting objectives, including cost-efficiency, sustainability, governance, and security of supply. In this article, we present a novel approach to selecting partner countries in the presence of such trade-offs. Our approach uses empirical indicators, abstract selection rules, and the epsilon constraint method to combine these objectives into a single objective optimization problem with additional constraints. We demonstrate our approach by examining the case of Germany as an importer of renewable energy using iron as an energy carrier. Our approach identifies the optimal set of potential trading partners and their respective shares of supplied renewable energy by minimizing costs while meeting the added constraints. For instance, under the most stringent sustainability and security constraints, the model identifies Australia, the United States, Brazil, Spain, Canada, and Chile as potential trading partners for Germany. Relaxing these constraints adds more countries such as Morocco and Oman. Our approach is the first to identify trade networks, i.e., concrete sets of partner countries, that can bridge gaps in renewable energy supply, offering valuable guidance for developing trading partnerships.
为实现当前减缓气候变化的目标,迫切需要使经济和能源系统脱碳。然而,在不久的将来,许多国家,特别是欧洲国家,将无法仅通过扩大国内生产来满足其对可再生能源迅速增长的需求。因此,这些国家正在计划进口利用氢和金属等化学载体的可再生能源。这就提出了与哪些国家进行可再生能源贸易合作的问题。选择合适的贸易伙伴是一项复杂的任务,需要平衡几个潜在的冲突目标,包括成本效率、可持续性、治理和供应安全。在本文中,我们提出了一种在存在这种权衡的情况下选择伙伴国家的新方法。我们的方法使用经验指标、抽象选择规则和epsilon约束方法,将这些目标组合成一个带有附加约束的单一目标优化问题。我们通过研究德国作为使用铁作为能源载体的可再生能源进口国的案例来展示我们的方法。我们的方法确定了一组最佳的潜在贸易伙伴及其各自的可再生能源供应份额,通过最小化成本,同时满足增加的限制。例如,在最严格的可持续性和安全约束下,该模型将澳大利亚、美国、巴西、西班牙、加拿大和智利确定为德国的潜在贸易伙伴。放宽这些限制会增加更多的国家,如摩洛哥和阿曼。我们的方法是首先确定贸易网络,即具体的伙伴国,以弥补可再生能源供应方面的差距,为发展贸易伙伴关系提供有价值的指导。
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引用次数: 0
Bridging the gap: Advancing behavioral economics and climate change research in developing countries 弥合差距:在发展中国家推进行为经济学和气候变化研究
IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-05-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100198
Hamza Umer , Muhammad Salar Khan
Climate change represents one of the greatest challenges of our time and requires exceptional efforts to combat it. Along with traditional economic methods, behavioral economics, which integrates psychological insights into financial decision-making, offers powerful tools to encourage climate-friendly behaviors. However, there has been relatively less research on the nexus of behavioral economics and climate change, and much of it is concentrated in developed countries. This perspective highlights the disparity in research output between developed and developing nations, based on a bibliometric analysis of 31 Scopus-indexed publications from 2008 to 2022. Our study reveals a strong bias toward research produced in the developed countries (or Global North), particularly in the United States and Europe, while developing countries (Global South) remain underrepresented. Consequently, we call for a more inclusive research agenda that focuses on the unique socio-economic realities of developing countries and the need for culturally or contextually tailored behavioral interventions. By promoting collaborative research efforts and increasing funding for the Global South, we aim to bridge this gap and develop scalable, effective solutions for climate change adaptation and mitigation.
气候变化是我们这个时代最大的挑战之一,需要付出非凡的努力来应对。与传统的经济学方法一样,行为经济学将心理学见解融入金融决策,为鼓励气候友好行为提供了强有力的工具。然而,关于行为经济学和气候变化之间关系的研究相对较少,而且大部分集中在发达国家。这一观点强调了发达国家和发展中国家之间研究产出的差异,这是基于对2008年至2022年31份scopus索引出版物的文献计量分析得出的。我们的研究揭示了对发达国家(或全球北方)的研究的强烈偏见,特别是在美国和欧洲,而发展中国家(全球南方)的代表性仍然不足。因此,我们呼吁制定更具包容性的研究议程,重点关注发展中国家独特的社会经济现实,以及根据文化或背景量身定制行为干预措施的必要性。通过促进合作研究努力和增加对全球南方的供资,我们的目标是弥合这一差距,为适应和减缓气候变化制定可扩展的有效解决办法。
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引用次数: 0
Modelling the economy-wide effects of unilateral CO2 pricing under different revenue recycling schemes in Austria - Identifying structural model uncertainties 对奥地利不同收入回收方案下单边二氧化碳定价的经济影响进行建模——识别结构模型的不确定性
IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100199
Mathias Kirchner , Laura Wallenko , Mark Sommer , Gabriel Bachner , Claudia Kettner , Thomas Leoni , Jakob Mayer , Nathalie Spittler , Judith Köberl , Veronika Kulmer
Macroeconomic modelling is essential for assessing the impacts of carbon pricing, but significant uncertainties remain between modelling approaches. This paper examines structural uncertainties by comparing a Neoclassical computable general equilibrium model (WEGDYN-AT) and a New Keynesian model (DYNK). We qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the effects of non-ETS carbon pricing under different revenue recycling options in Austria. We identify six causal impact chains (ICs) that shape model outcomes. The first two - carbon pricing leading to a loss in economic output (IC1) and a shift towards labor-intensive sectors (IC2) - are common to both models. However, differences in economic paradigms emerge in the markets for labor (IC3), capital (IC4), and goods and services (IC5). For example, DYNK shows stronger transmission of external price shocks but smoother labor market adjustments, while WEGDYN-AT shows the opposite pattern. Structural differences from models’ historical development, such as the modelling of private consumption (part of IC5) and government budget closure (IC6), also contribute to divergence. Quantitative simulations show that, due to these structural differences, results for key indicators, such as price indices, consumption, and welfare, can differ in both magnitude and sign. Our results highlight the importance of tailoring policy recommendations to the prevailing economic context, such as whether the economy is experiencing an output gap with idle resources (DYNK) or a boom phase with scarce resources (WEGDYN-AT). Transparent documentation of impact chains is crucial to understanding the range of macroeconomic effects of carbon pricing, identifying more robust policy outcomes, and strengthening policy support.
宏观经济建模对于评估碳定价的影响至关重要,但建模方法之间仍然存在很大的不确定性。本文通过比较新古典可计算一般均衡模型(WEGDYN-AT)和新凯恩斯模型(DYNK)来检验结构不确定性。我们定性和定量地分析了奥地利不同收入回收方案下非ets碳定价的影响。我们确定了六条影响模型结果的因果影响链(ic)。前两个问题——碳定价导致经济产出损失(IC1)和向劳动密集型产业转移(IC2)——在两种模式中都是共同的。然而,在劳动力市场(IC3)、资本市场(IC4)以及商品和服务市场(IC5)中出现了经济范式的差异。例如,DYNK表现出外部价格冲击传导更强,劳动力市场调整更平稳,而WEGDYN-AT则表现出相反的模式。模型历史发展的结构性差异,如私人消费模型(IC5的一部分)和政府预算关闭(IC6),也有助于分歧。定量模拟表明,由于这些结构性差异,关键指标(如价格指数、消费和福利)的结果可能在幅度和符号上都有所不同。我们的研究结果强调了根据当前经济环境量身定制政策建议的重要性,例如经济是否正在经历资源闲置的产出缺口(DYNK)或资源稀缺的繁荣阶段(WEGDYN-AT)。透明的影响链文件对于理解碳定价的宏观经济影响范围、确定更有力的政策成果和加强政策支持至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Evolving electricity supply and demand to achieve net-zero emissions: Insights from the EMF-37 study 不断发展的电力供应和需求以实现净零排放:来自EMF-37研究的见解
IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-05-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100196
Ruying Gao , Trieu Mai , Seyed Shahabeddin Mousavi , Charles Rossmann , Matthew Binsted , John Bistline , Geoff Blanford , Morgan Browning , Matthias Fripp , Patrick Lamers , Matteo Muratori , Sharon Showalter , John Weyant
This paper explores the role of electricity in achieving economy-wide net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 in the United States based on results from 17 models as part of the 37th Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-37). In the study’s Net-Zero scenario, the models use diverse pathways to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, with gross energy-related residual emissions ranging from 17.2 to 66.6 % of 2020 levels. Electricity consistently emerges as central to achieving net-zero, with models projecting rapid electrification of end-uses and rapidly declining CO2 intensity of electricity. However, the extent of electrification and the technology mix to decarbonize the power sector vary considerably across models. In the Net-Zero scenario, electricity is projected to evolve from ∼20 % of final energy in 2020 to 17–63 % in 2050 across the models driven by electrification in all sectors—buildings, industry, and transportation—and, to a lesser extent by direct air capture. By 2050, total electricity consumption increases by 24–176 % (relative to 2020), accompanied by significant expansion in renewable electricity production. Together, solar and wind generation grows by 175–834 %, supplying 45–90 % of total electricity in 2050, with wind achieving slightly higher shares than solar. Electricity storage technologies are deployed at scale to support wind and solar generation. The electricity generation mix varies across models: some project almost complete reliance on renewables, while others see a substantial role for natural gas, often with carbon capture and storage. This paper synthesizes the rich diversity of modeling approaches and results, highlighting differing views on how key drivers of electricity demand and supply might evolve.
本文基于第37届斯坦福能源建模论坛(EMF-37)的17个模型的结果,探讨了电力在到2050年实现美国全经济净零二氧化碳排放中的作用。在该研究的净零情景中,这些模型使用多种途径到2050年实现净零排放,与能源相关的剩余排放总量为2020年水平的17.2%至66.6%。电力一直是实现净零排放的核心,模型预测最终用途的快速电气化和电力的二氧化碳强度迅速下降。然而,不同车型的电力部门的电气化程度和脱碳技术组合差异很大。在净零情景中,电力预计将从2020年占最终能源的20%发展到2050年的17% - 63%,在所有部门(建筑、工业和交通运输)的电气化驱动的模式中,直接空气捕获的比例较小。到2050年,总用电量将增加24 - 176%(相对于2020年),同时可再生电力生产将大幅扩大。到2050年,太阳能和风能发电量将增长175 - 834%,占总发电量的45 - 90%,其中风能的份额略高于太阳能。电力存储技术被大规模部署,以支持风能和太阳能发电。发电结构因模式而异:一些项目几乎完全依赖可再生能源,而另一些项目则认为天然气将发挥重要作用,通常具有碳捕获和储存功能。本文综合了丰富多样的建模方法和结果,突出了对电力需求和供应的关键驱动因素可能如何演变的不同观点。
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引用次数: 0
Pathways for decarbonization of the buildings sector in Ukraine 乌克兰建筑部门脱碳的途径
IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-05-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100195
Oleksandr Diachuk , Nazar Kholod , Roman Podolets , Neal Graham , Andrii Semeniuk , Meredydd Evans , Michael I. Westphal , Tanner Stelmach , Rachel Hoesly , Galyna Trypolska , Anastasiia Zagoruichyk
The paper focuses on Ukraine’s intention to achieve a two-thirds reduction in buildings’ energy consumption for heating and cooling by 2050, concurrently aiming for net zero greenhouse gas emissions and heightened energy security. The study examines the outcomes of retrofitting existing residential, commercial, and public buildings with highly efficient materials, improving construction standards, and transitioning to advanced heating systems. However, Russia’s invasion in 2022 inflicted substantial damage, prompting a shift from retrofit and decarbonization to reconstruction. The Ukrainian government’s Reconstruction Plan emphasizes clean, sustainable, and resilient energy systems. The study employs energy system and integrated assessment models (TIMES-Ukraine and GCAM-Ukraine) to explore scenarios taking into consideration the war, reconstruction, and a net zero CO2 pathway. Using two models allowed the inter-model comparison. The analysis addresses vital questions on energy resiliency measures and the compounding effects of decarbonization. Findings indicate that Ukraine’s energy goals can be met through strategic retrofitting and economy-wide decarbonization, emphasizing the importance of low-carbon alternatives like district heating with renewable sources. Electrification with renewables and fuel-switching emerges as crucial for achieving building decarbonization. The study offers valuable insights into navigating energy challenges amidst the war and outlines a pathway for Ukraine’s sustainable energy future.
该文件的重点是乌克兰打算到2050年将建筑供暖和制冷能耗减少三分之二,同时旨在实现温室气体净零排放和提高能源安全。该研究考察了用高效材料改造现有住宅、商业和公共建筑、提高建筑标准和向先进供暖系统过渡的结果。然而,俄罗斯在2022年的入侵造成了巨大的破坏,促使其从改造和脱碳转向重建。乌克兰政府的重建计划强调清洁、可持续和有弹性的能源系统。该研究采用能源系统和综合评估模型(TIMES-Ukraine和GCAM-Ukraine)来探索考虑战争、重建和净零二氧化碳途径的情景。使用两个模型可以进行模型间比较。该分析解决了能源弹性措施和脱碳复合效应的关键问题。研究结果表明,乌克兰的能源目标可以通过战略改造和经济范围内的脱碳来实现,强调低碳替代品的重要性,如使用可再生能源的区域供热。可再生能源和燃料转换的电气化成为实现建筑脱碳的关键。该研究为在战争中应对能源挑战提供了有价值的见解,并概述了乌克兰可持续能源未来的道路。
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引用次数: 0
Unpacking the determinants of emission intensity changes in Indonesia: A multiplicative structural decomposition approach 解开印尼排放强度变化的决定因素:一种乘法结构分解方法
IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-04-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100194
Djoni Hartono , Sasmita Hastri Hastuti , Robi Kurniawan , Usep Surahman , Yulesta Putra , Hiroaki Shirakawa
Addressing the global warming crisis requires a deeper understanding of the factors influencing carbon emission intensity and the trends of major emitters. Indonesia, with its rapid economic growth and ambitious reduction targets, provides a case study for examining how national policies and structural shifts shape its carbon intensity. This paper analyzes the driving forces behind changes in Indonesia's emission intensity from 2010 to 2019, using multiplicative Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA). Specifically, it assesses the impact of emission intensity, Leontief structural change (shifts in inter-industry relationships), and final demand (changes in final consumption). Our findings reveal that while Indonesia’s Aggregate Emission Intensity (AEI) improved from 2010 to 2015, it worsened from 2015 to 2019. The electricity sector, a major contributor to AEI changes, showed significant efficiency gains in the latter period, likely due to cleaner energy initiatives introduced between 2014 and 2017. However, these gains were offset by rising electricity demand for both intermediate and final uses. Other high-impact sectors, such as non-metallic mineral products, also experienced increases in emission intensity. Further analysis highlights the role of household consumption in driving demand-side effects, particularly in sectors like electricity, electrical machinery, and air transportation. These results underscore the need for strengthened policies targeting efficiency improvements, renewable energy expansion, and demand management to achieve Indonesia's carbon reduction goals and support a sustainable energy transition.
应对全球变暖危机需要更深入地了解影响碳排放强度的因素和主要排放国的趋势。经济快速增长和雄心勃勃的减排目标的印度尼西亚为研究国家政策和结构转变如何影响其碳强度提供了一个案例研究。本文采用乘法结构分解分析法(SDA)分析了2010 - 2019年印尼排放强度变化的驱动力。具体而言,它评估了排放强度、莱昂惕夫结构变化(产业间关系的变化)和最终需求(最终消费的变化)的影响。我们的研究结果表明,虽然印度尼西亚的总排放强度(AEI)在2010年至2015年期间有所改善,但在2015年至2019年期间有所恶化。电力部门是AEI变化的主要贡献者,在2014年至2017年期间,电力部门的效率显著提高,这可能是由于引入了更清洁的能源计划。然而,这些收益被中间和最终用途的电力需求增加所抵消。其他高影响部门,如非金属矿物产品,也经历了排放强度的增加。进一步的分析强调了家庭消费在推动需求侧效应方面的作用,特别是在电力、电机和航空运输等部门。这些结果强调,需要加强针对提高效率、扩大可再生能源和需求管理的政策,以实现印度尼西亚的碳减排目标,并支持可持续的能源转型。
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引用次数: 0
A multi-model assessment of carbon neutrality pathways for Korea’s power sector 韩国电力部门碳中和路径的多模型评估
IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-04-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100193
Cheolhung Cho , Jiyong Eom , Young-Hwan Ahn , Dong Gu Choi , Yohan Choi , Hanwoong Kim , Yong-Gun Kim , Hyeonjin Lee , Jineon Moon , Chan Park
In October 2021, Korea announced its mid-century carbon mitigation target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, reaffirming its commitment by enhancing its 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). This study employs six energy-economic and integrated assessment models to explore net-zero emission pathways and strategies for Korea’s power sector, while assessing the associated costs and challenges. The findings underscore the complexity and urgency of this transition, with the power sector playing a pivotal role in balancing the dual challenges of rapidly growing electricity demand and full decarbonization. A shift toward a renewable-dominated power sector emerges as a robust strategy, though it poses unprecedented technological and economic challenges. Large-scale low-carbon technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear power, are identified as crucial solutions to reduce reliance on variable renewable energy sources and mitigate associated costs. Additionally, the study finds that current energy and climate policies are insufficient to meet the mid-century mitigation target, highlighting the urgent need for policy enhancements to bridge the gap and ensure the feasibility of Korea’s carbon neutrality goal.
2021年10月,韩国宣布了到2050年实现碳中和的本世纪中叶碳减排目标,重申了提高2030年国家自主贡献(NDC)的承诺。本研究采用六种能源经济和综合评估模型,探索韩国电力部门的净零排放途径和战略,同时评估相关成本和挑战。研究结果强调了这一转型的复杂性和紧迫性,电力部门在平衡快速增长的电力需求和完全脱碳的双重挑战方面发挥着关键作用。向以可再生能源为主导的电力部门转变成为一项强有力的战略,尽管它带来了前所未有的技术和经济挑战。大规模的低碳技术,如碳捕获与封存(CCS)和核能,被认为是减少对可变可再生能源依赖和降低相关成本的关键解决方案。此外,该研究发现,目前的能源和气候政策不足以实现本世纪中叶的减排目标,因此迫切需要加强政策,以弥合差距,并确保韩国碳中和目标的可行性。
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引用次数: 0
A new scenario set for informing pathways to India’s next nationally determined contribution and 2070 net-zero target: structural reforms, LIFE, and sectoral pathways 为印度实现下一个国家自主贡献和2070年净零排放目标的途径设定了新的情景:结构改革、生命周期和部门途径
IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-04-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100192
Pallavi Das , Vaibhav Chaturvedi , Joy Rajbanshi , Zaid Ahsan Khan , Satish Kumar , Akash Goenka
India announced 2070 as its net-zero target year at the 26th Conference of Parties (COP26) in 2021. The existing scenarios from India specific literature on 2070 net-zero, while very useful, mainly focus on alternative techno-economic pathways, power sector alone, and choice of peaking and net-zero years. But none of the existing scenarios go beyond the techno-economic and high-level GDP growth related uncertainties to a broader set of scenario underpinnings. Our study broadens the scenario set for India by assessing scenarios that have not till now been explored in India’s modelling literature, particularly in the context of the 2070 net-zero target. These include macroeconomic development (pathways related to urbanisation, manufacturing led economy, and urban rural inequity), energy efficiency, availability of low-carbon technology, structural reforms and behavioural change that determine future energy demand and emissions. We find that a high manufacturing share and high GDP growth rate in line with ‘Viksit Bharat’ would have the highest influence in terms of increasing India’s long-term energy use and emissions if industries continue to rely on fossil energy. We highlight that lifestyle changes and energy efficiency could have the largest impact in reduction of emissions in the long-term. Under a net-zero scenario however, power pricing reforms becomes a powerful tool for electrification of industrial energy use as well as higher penetration of rooftop solar in residential buildings as tariffs are rationalised, leading to savings in land and distribution losses among other benefits. We also present information on some relevant variables like emissions intensity of GDP and RE generation by 2035 to inform India’s upcoming 2035 NDC targets. We conclude by highlighting the criticality of complementary policies to reduce energy and electricity demand and associated land footprint for India, and the importance of a climate policy for India focusing directly on the high-level emissions pathway through a carbon market.
印度在2021年第26届缔约方大会(COP26)上宣布2070年为其净零目标年。印度特定文献中关于2070年净零排放的现有情景虽然非常有用,但主要侧重于替代技术经济途径、电力部门以及峰值和净零排放年的选择。但是,现有的情景都没有超越与技术经济和高GDP增长相关的不确定性,而涉及到更广泛的情景基础。我们的研究通过评估印度建模文献中迄今尚未探索的情景,特别是在2070年净零目标的背景下,扩大了印度的情景设置。其中包括宏观经济发展(与城市化、制造业主导经济和城乡不平等相关的途径)、能源效率、低碳技术的可用性、结构改革和决定未来能源需求和排放的行为改变。我们发现,如果工业继续依赖化石能源,那么符合“Viksit Bharat”的高制造业份额和高GDP增长率将对增加印度的长期能源使用和排放产生最大的影响。我们强调,从长远来看,生活方式的改变和能源效率对减少排放的影响最大。然而,在净零情景下,电价改革将成为工业能源使用电气化以及住宅屋顶太阳能渗透率提高的有力工具,因为电价改革将合理化,从而节省土地和配电损失,并带来其他好处。我们还提供了一些相关变量的信息,如GDP的排放强度和2035年的可再生能源发电,为印度即将到来的2035年国家自主贡献目标提供信息。最后,我们强调了印度减少能源和电力需求以及相关土地足迹的补充政策的重要性,以及通过碳市场直接关注高水平排放途径的气候政策的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Policy implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of United States emissions and energy system impacts 净零排放的政策含义:美国排放和能源系统影响的多模型分析
IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-04-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100191
John E.T. Bistline , Matthew Binsted , Geoffrey Blanford , Gale Boyd , Morgan Browning , Yongxia Cai , Jae Edmonds , Allen A. Fawcett , Jay Fuhrman , Ruying Gao , Chioke Harris , Christopher Hoehne , Gokul Iyer , Jeremiah X. Johnson , P. Ozge Kaplan , Dan Loughlin , Megan Mahajan , Trieu Mai , James R. McFarland , Haewon McJeon , Mei Yuan
Many countries, subnational jurisdictions, and companies are setting net-zero emissions goals; however, questions remain about strategies to reach these targets, policy measures, technology gaps, and economic impacts. We investigate the potential policy implications of reaching economy-wide net-zero CO2 emissions across the United States by 2050 using results from a multi-model comparison with 14 energy-economic models. Model results suggest that achieving net-zero CO2 targets depends on policies that accelerate deployment of zero- and low-emitting technologies that have seen rapid cost reductions in recent years (including wind, solar, battery storage, and electric vehicles) as well as relatively nascent options (including carbon capture and storage, advanced biofuels, low-carbon hydrogen, advanced nuclear, and long-duration energy storage). While net-zero policies are likely to lower fossil fuel consumption, including considerable coal and petroleum reductions, achieving net-zero emissions does not necessarily mean phasing out all fossil fuels. Model results indicate that the Inflation Reduction Act’s energy and climate provisions amplify near-term decarbonization but that net-zero policies have larger impacts on long-run outcomes. Stringent climate policy can have large fiscal impacts on tax revenue and government spending—revenues from carbon pricing and subsidies for carbon removal range from 0.1 % to 3.7 % of GDP in 2050 across models. Each dollar per metric ton carbon price leads to a 0.06 % to 0.31 % reduction in economy-wide CO2 emissions relative to a reference scenario with current policies. Spending on energy across the economy decreases relative to today for many models under reference and net-zero policies, especially as a share of GDP, due primarily to end-use electrification and energy efficiency.
许多国家、地方司法管辖区和企业正在制定净零排放目标;然而,关于实现这些目标的战略、政策措施、技术差距和经济影响等问题仍然存在。我们利用与14种能源经济模型的多模型比较结果,研究了到2050年在美国实现全经济净零二氧化碳排放的潜在政策影响。模型结果表明,实现净零二氧化碳目标取决于加速部署零排放和低排放技术的政策,这些技术近年来成本迅速下降(包括风能、太阳能、电池储能和电动汽车),以及相对新兴的选择(包括碳捕获和储存、先进生物燃料、低碳氢、先进核能和长期能源储存)。虽然净零排放政策可能会降低化石燃料的消耗,包括大量减少煤炭和石油的消耗,但实现净零排放并不一定意味着逐步淘汰所有化石燃料。模型结果表明,《减少通货膨胀法》的能源和气候条款扩大了近期的脱碳,但净零政策对长期结果的影响更大。严格的气候政策可能会对税收收入和政府支出产生巨大的财政影响——2050年碳定价和碳去除补贴的收入占GDP的比例从0.1%到3.7%不等。相对于当前政策下的参考情景,每公吨碳价格每增加1美元,整个经济的二氧化碳排放量将减少0.06%至0.31%。在许多参考模式和净零政策下,整个经济体的能源支出相对于今天有所下降,特别是作为GDP的一部分,主要是由于终端用户电气化和能源效率。
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引用次数: 0
Is the industrial sector hard to decarbonize or hard to model? A comparative analysis of industrial modeling and net zero carbon dioxide pathways 工业部门是难以脱碳还是难以建模?工业模型与净零二氧化碳路径的比较分析
IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-04-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100190
P. Ozge Kaplan , Gale Boyd , Morgan Browning , Kelly Perl , Sarang Supekar , Nadejda Victor , Ernst Worrell
This paper examines the results of the Energy Modeling Forum Study 37 on Deep Decarbonization & High Electrification Scenarios for North America (EMF 37), with specific focus on industrial decarbonization pathways. Broadly, industrial decarbonization can be delivered through a wide range of actions such as energy efficiency, circular economy, electrification, low-carbon fuels, feedstocks, and energy sources, and carbon capture utilization and sequestration (CCUS). Remaining positive emissions in the energy system can be offset by carbon dioxide removal (CDR). The extent to which these options are, or are not, included in the models will impact the extent to which industrial decarbonization is projected to contribute to achieving an economy-wide net-zero climate policy. If adequate actions and technological levers are included in the model structure, but are more expensive than other options, in particular CCUS and CDR, then projected industry emissions reductions play a smaller role in meeting a net-zero constraint. The distinction between “hard to decarbonize” and “hard to model” has significant policy implications. If industry is hard to decarbonize, policies should focus on innovative and cost-effective industrial technologies, CDR, or both. If industry is hard to model, there may be overlooked opportunities for decarbonization that require further exploration. There is no consensus across the models in the study regarding both the level of decarbonization that could be achieved in industry or the pathways to achieve it. We caution against drawing conclusions solely from existing models and recommend rigorous and coordinated modeling efforts to better capture industrial innovation and decarbonization strategies.
本文考察了能源建模论坛研究37关于深度脱碳的结果。北美高电气化情景(EMF 37),特别关注工业脱碳途径。从广义上讲,工业脱碳可以通过一系列行动来实现,如能源效率、循环经济、电气化、低碳燃料、原料和能源,以及碳捕获、利用和封存(CCUS)。能源系统中剩余的正排放可以通过二氧化碳去除(CDR)来抵消。这些选择是否被纳入模型,将影响工业脱碳对实现全经济净零气候政策的贡献程度。如果适当的行动和技术杠杆包含在模型结构中,但比其他选择,特别是CCUS和CDR更昂贵,那么预计的工业减排在满足净零约束方面的作用较小。“难以脱碳”和“难以建模”之间的区别具有重要的政策含义。如果工业难以脱碳,政策应侧重于创新和具有成本效益的工业技术,CDR,或两者兼而有之。如果工业很难建模,那么可能会有被忽视的脱碳机会,需要进一步探索。对于工业中可以实现的脱碳水平或实现脱碳的途径,研究中的各个模型都没有达成共识。我们警告不要仅仅从现有模型中得出结论,并建议严格和协调的建模工作,以更好地捕捉工业创新和脱碳战略。
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引用次数: 0
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Energy and climate change
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