Energy and climate change最新文献_第4页

Employment risk for the global oil and gas sector in light of just transition policies 在转型政策下，全球油气行业的就业风险

IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy and climate change

Pub Date : 2025-07-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100208

Chafai Maissa , Chaouche Saloua-Nassima , Raphael J. Heffron

This research focuses on the issue of employment which is one of the most important issues of the global just transition to a low-carbon economy. Through a quantitative assessment of the top-100 global oil and gas companies, the results advance that inaction on achieving the just transition will result in increased employment risk, i.e., job losses. The objective of this research was to explore whether company inaction on climate and low-carbon energy strategies will lead to job losses within their firms. The method adopted here is hierarchical clustering on principal components whereby these companies can be grouped together from an economic and regional perspective and assessed in terms of their employment risk. The results indicate that there is significant employment risk should companies continue on their current pathways. Latin America and the Caribbean have the highest risk of job loss, while workers in Europe and Central Asia have a lower risk. This research will allow oil and gas policymakers and decisionmakers to begin making strategic decisions around the area of employment risk. Further, it should encourage new corporate and climate strategy perspectives for responding to the challenges of the global just transition. Finally, it can improve just outcomes for society such as the UN SDG No 8 on decent work and economic growth.

本研究的重点是就业问题，这是全球向低碳经济转型的最重要问题之一。通过对全球100强油气公司的定量评估，结果表明，不采取措施实现公平转型将导致就业风险增加，即失业。本研究的目的是探讨公司对气候和低碳能源战略的不作为是否会导致公司内部的失业。这里采用的方法是主成分的分层聚类，从经济和区域的角度将这些公司分组在一起，并根据其就业风险进行评估。结果表明，如果企业继续目前的道路，将存在显著的就业风险。拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的工人失业风险最高，而欧洲和中亚的工人失业风险较低。这项研究将使油气政策制定者和决策者能够围绕就业风险领域制定战略决策。此外，它应该鼓励新的企业和气候战略观点，以应对全球转型的挑战。最后，它可以改善社会成果，例如联合国关于体面工作和经济增长的第8项可持续发展目标。

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引用次数: 0

Quantifying hydrogen technology acceptance: Insights from Bayesian networks 量化氢技术接受度：来自贝叶斯网络的见解

IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy and climate change

Pub Date : 2025-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100201

Daniel Z. Herr , Mitchell Scovell , Nikolai Kinaev , Radislav Vaisman

Traditional social science analyses often emphasise qualitative explanations, limiting the integration of insights into quantitative frameworks, which constrains predictive analysis and rigorous theoretical testing. We address this gap by showing how causal inference methods, specifically Bayesian networks, can strengthen technology acceptance theories through an explicit representation of hypothesised structural dependencies. This approach enables the principled exploration of hypothetical interventions (even in contexts with scarce data) by leveraging information in the parametrised network and adhering to a theoretically informed process called the do-calculus. We demonstrate the approach by examining hydrogen hub acceptance using survey data from 1682 Australian residents who were asked about hosting a hub in their communities. The resulting Bayesian network outperforms eight widely used structure-agnostic machine learning algorithms in predictive accuracy and identifies the strong causal influence of perceived risk and economic benefit on hub acceptance. By simulating ‘what-if’ interventions, the model delivers quantitative decision support under uncertainty, informing policy design and communication strategies for hydrogen-technology projects.

传统的社会科学分析往往强调定性解释，限制了将见解整合到定量框架中，这限制了预测分析和严格的理论检验。我们通过展示因果推理方法，特别是贝叶斯网络，如何通过明确表示假设的结构依赖性来加强技术接受理论，从而解决了这一差距。这种方法通过利用参数化网络中的信息，并遵循一种称为do-calculus的理论知情过程，对假设的干预措施（即使在数据稀缺的情况下）进行原则性探索。我们通过使用来自1682名澳大利亚居民的调查数据来检查氢枢纽的接受度来证明这种方法，这些居民被问及在他们的社区中托管一个枢纽。由此产生的贝叶斯网络在预测准确性方面优于八种广泛使用的结构不可知机器学习算法，并确定了感知风险和经济效益对枢纽接受度的强烈因果影响。通过模拟“假设”干预，该模型在不确定性下提供定量决策支持，为氢技术项目的政策设计和沟通策略提供信息。

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引用次数: 0

Factors affecting solar levelized cost of electricity in India & policy recommendations 影响印度太阳能平准化电力成本的因素及政策建议

IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy and climate change

Pub Date : 2025-07-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100207

Gaurav Singh Rana, Rajeev Jindal

Over the last decade, a significant decline in global solar photovoltaic (PV) levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) has been noted, instrumental in the solar sector’s rapid growth while maintaining competitiveness with conventional resources. Similar trends in the decline of solar PV LCOE have been observed in India; however, despite importing major components required for solar PV plants, India’s solar LCOE not only declined but also stayed lower and competitive with major solar PV module manufacturing countries like China’s solar LCOE. This study attempts to identify the elements that contributed to the decline in solar PV LCOE in India and highlight why India’s solar LCOE continues to be the lowest compared to other nations. Further, this paper suggests policies for maintaining accelerated solar growth while ensuring competitive solar LCOE in the context of rising energy demand and economic development. The paper's findings are crucial for shaping India’s solar energy policies, ensuring sustainable growth, and achieving energy security, potentially serving as a model for other developing nations.

在过去十年中，人们注意到全球太阳能光伏（PV）平准化电力成本（LCOE）的显著下降，这有助于太阳能部门的快速增长，同时保持与传统资源的竞争力。印度也出现了类似的太阳能光伏LCOE下降趋势；然而，尽管进口了太阳能光伏电站所需的主要组件，印度的太阳能LCOE不仅下降了，而且保持在较低水平，与中国等主要太阳能光伏组件制造国家竞争。本研究试图找出导致印度太阳能光伏LCOE下降的因素，并强调为什么印度的太阳能LCOE与其他国家相比仍然是最低的。此外，本文还提出了在能源需求上升和经济发展的背景下保持太阳能加速增长的同时确保有竞争力的太阳能LCOE的政策建议。这篇论文的发现对于制定印度的太阳能政策、确保可持续增长和实现能源安全至关重要，有可能成为其他发展中国家的榜样。

引用次数: 0

Life cycle assessment of wind farm: A review on current status and future knowledge 风电场生命周期评价：现状与展望

IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy and climate change

Pub Date : 2025-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100206

Uttara Das, Champa Nandi

With rising concerns over climate change and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power has gained attention as a clean energy source. However, Wind Power Plants (WPPs) generate emissions throughout their life cycle, from raw material extraction to decommissioning. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a key tool for evaluating these environmental impacts. This paper reviews LCA studies of onshore and offshore WPPs, focusing on global warming potential (GWP) and energy payback time (EPBT) to assess their sustainability. Findings reveal that offshore WPPs generally exhibit higher GHG emissions due to complex installation and transportation but benefit from shorter EPBT due to higher wind speeds. Conversely, onshore WPPs have lower upfront emissions but experience longer EPBT due to variable wind conditions. The manufacturing and transportation phases contribute the highest emissions. Recycling and material optimization can reduce environmental impact by up to 30 %. Identified research gaps include data accuracy issues, limited offshore LCA studies, and lack of component-specific analyses. This study provides a pathway for optimizing wind power sustainability, emphasizing material efficiency, logistics improvements, and policy advancements.

随着人们对气候变化和温室气体（GHG）排放的担忧日益加剧，风能作为一种清洁能源受到了关注。然而，风力发电厂（WPPs）在其整个生命周期（从原材料开采到退役）都会产生排放。生命周期评价（LCA）是评价这些环境影响的关键工具。本文综述了陆上和海上WPPs的LCA研究，重点关注全球变暖潜势（GWP）和能源回收期（EPBT），以评估其可持续性。研究结果表明，由于安装和运输复杂，海上wpp通常表现出较高的温室气体排放，但由于风速较高，EPBT较短。相反，陆上风力发电厂的前期排放较低，但由于风力条件的变化，EPBT的使用时间较长。制造和运输阶段的排放量最高。回收和材料优化可以减少高达30%的环境影响。已确定的研究差距包括数据准确性问题、有限的海上LCA研究以及缺乏特定组件的分析。本研究为优化风力发电的可持续性提供了一条途径，强调材料效率、物流改进和政策进步。

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引用次数: 0

Decarbonizing the Dutch industrial sector: between maintaining domestic production and partial relocation 荷兰工业部门脱碳：在维持国内生产和部分搬迁之间

IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy and climate change

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100205

Ahmed M. Elberry , Martin Scheepers , Joost van Stralen , Juan S. Giraldo , Bob van der Zwaan

Industry is one of the most challenging sectors to decarbonize in the Dutch energy system. This is due to several factors such as the difficulty in moving away from existing technologies and the availability of still relatively cheap natural gas. In this study, we introduce two scenarios to investigate possible energy transition pathways for the Dutch industrial sector. The first scenario focuses on keeping industrial production largely in the Netherlands. The second explores relocating part of it abroad to regions in which low–cost sustainable energy sources are available. We employ an energy system optimization model to analyze these scenarios. Our results for the first scenario show a reduction of about 80% in fossil fuel consumption by 2050 in the industrial sector, primarily achieved by substituting fossil fuels with hydrogen, bioenergy, and synthetic fuels. To achieve the carbon-neutrality target by 2050, a cumulative total of about 552 MtCO₂ needs to be captured from the industrial sector, with 52% utilized and the rest stored. The second scenario does not yield a large difference in the relative energy mix compared to the first. However, it results in substantial changes in terms of more rapid decarbonization, with less final energy consumption, lower investment costs, and more limited deployment of CO₂ capture technology. In both scenarios, a radical technological transformation of the industrial sector is necessary for reaching the energy system carbon-neutrality target, with industry contributing to this goal by achieving net-negative CO₂ emissions in 2050.

工业是荷兰能源系统中最具挑战性的脱碳部门之一。这是由于几个因素造成的，比如难以摆脱现有的技术，以及仍然相对便宜的天然气的可用性。在本研究中，我们引入两种情景来研究荷兰工业部门可能的能源转型途径。第一种方案的重点是将工业生产主要留在荷兰。第二种方法是将部分能源转移到有低成本可持续能源的地区。我们采用能源系统优化模型来分析这些情景。我们对第一种情景的结果显示，到2050年，工业部门的化石燃料消耗将减少约80%，主要是通过用氢、生物能源和合成燃料替代化石燃料来实现的。为了到2050年实现碳中和目标，需要从工业部门累计捕获约5.52亿吨二氧化碳，其中52%利用，其余储存。与第一种情况相比，第二种情况在相对能源结构方面不会产生大的差异。然而，在更快的脱碳、更少的最终能源消耗、更低的投资成本和更有限的二氧化碳捕集技术部署方面，它带来了实质性的变化。在这两种情况下，为了实现能源系统的碳中和目标，工业部门必须进行彻底的技术转型，工业通过在2050年实现净负二氧化碳排放来为这一目标做出贡献。

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引用次数: 0

Robust pathway analysis of electricity investments under net-zero uncertainties 净零不确定性下电力投资的稳健路径分析

IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy and climate change

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100204

Erin Baker , John Bistline , Nexus Attiogbe

Policy-makers and planners are looking to make robust power system investments under deep uncertainty and conflicting objectives. This paper presents a robust pathway approach to address a range of uncertainties and multiple objectives and provides a proof-of-concept applied to U.S. electric sector decisions under deep decarbonization. Results show the importance of considering a range of criteria: considering cost alone or CO₂ alone resulted in just two non-dominated pathways in each case; adding in the consideration of co-pollutants increased the number of non-dominated pathways to six of the nine considered. This analysis highlights the importance of considering fuel price uncertainty and, in particular, the possibility of high natural gas prices, which can lead to high co-pollution in otherwise low-polluting pathways. Results illustrate trade-offs between emissions and costs; as well as between CO₂ and co-pollutants, which is largely due to carbon removal use. The robust pathway framework is illustrative; we discuss how future work with harmonized multi-model outputs and spatially explicit pollutant metrics can provide additional insights.

决策者和规划者正在寻求在高度不确定性和目标冲突的情况下进行稳健的电力系统投资。本文提出了一种强大的途径方法来解决一系列不确定性和多个目标，并提供了一个应用于深度脱碳下美国电力部门决策的概念验证。结果表明考虑一系列标准的重要性：单独考虑成本或单独考虑二氧化碳在每种情况下只导致两个非主导途径；考虑到共同污染物，非主导途径的数量增加到所考虑的九个途径中的六个。这一分析强调了考虑燃料价格不确定性的重要性，特别是高天然气价格的可能性，这可能导致低污染途径的高共同污染。结果说明了排放和成本之间的权衡；以及二氧化碳和共污染物之间，这主要是由于碳去除的使用。鲁棒通路框架是说明性的；我们讨论了协调多模型输出和空间明确污染物指标的未来工作如何提供额外的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Improving energy access and environmental sustainability in small communities through hydrogen integration 通过氢气整合改善小型社区的能源获取和环境可持续性

IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy and climate change

Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100200

Mostafa Mostafavi Sani, Hamid Afshari, Ahmed Saif

Relying on renewable energy for small communities is challenging due to intermittency, while hydrogen offers a reliable, long-term storage solution. Yet, there are questions regarding the involvement of hydrogen in the optimal renewable energy configuration. This paper develops a tri-objective optimization model for the selection and capacity allocation of energy technologies to minimize the annual costs, minimize environmental impact, and maximize social utility for small communities. The model assesses the role of hydrogen in a hybrid renewable energy system to evaluate grid reliability, its contribution to global warming mitigation, and the distinctive dynamics associated with community size. Liverpool in Nova Scotia, Canada, was chosen as a case study due to its promise of renewable energy advancement and inconsistent grid access. The initial results suggest a set of technologies such as wind turbines, combined heat and power, organic Rankine cycle, and the grid. By extending the analysis to 2050, it is projected that the utilization of wind turbines and fuel cells will double, while grid connection becomes unnecessary as hydrogen technologies mature. The matured hydrogen scenario shows a 63% reduction in environmental impact and a 4% improvement in social utility.

由于间歇性，小型社区依靠可再生能源是具有挑战性的，而氢提供了可靠的长期存储解决方案。然而，关于氢在最佳可再生能源配置中的参与存在问题。为了使小社区的年成本最小化、环境影响最小化和社会效用最大化，本文建立了能源技术选择和容量分配的三目标优化模型。该模型评估了氢在混合可再生能源系统中的作用，以评估电网可靠性、其对减缓全球变暖的贡献，以及与社区规模相关的独特动态。加拿大新斯科舍省的利物浦被选为案例研究，因为它承诺可再生能源的发展和不稳定的电网接入。最初的研究结果提出了一系列技术，如风力涡轮机、热电联产、有机朗肯循环和电网。如果将分析时间延长到2050年，预计风力涡轮机和燃料电池的利用率将增加一倍，而随着氢技术的成熟，电网连接将变得不必要。成熟的氢情景表明，环境影响减少63%，社会效用提高4%。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing decarbonization pathways for energy-intensive industries in Indonesia using TIMES optimization model 利用TIMES优化模型评估印尼能源密集型产业的脱碳途径

IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy and climate change

Pub Date : 2025-06-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100202

Primaldi Anugrah Utama , Markus A. Gielbert , Reviana Revitasari , Nadhilah Reyseliani , Widodo Wahyu Purwanto

Decarbonization efforts in industrial sectors remain primarily focused in developed countries. However, developing countries, such as Indonesia, face critical challenges in decarbonizing energy-intensive industries, which are essential to economic growth. Key challenges include uncertainties regarding low-carbon technology options and high investment requirements, which imply additional production costs. This study aims to assess potential decarbonization pathways for the industrial sector and their impact on production costs. A bottom-up optimization approach, using the TIMES model, was employed to determine optimal technology pathways by minimizing production costs while achieving the targeted CO₂e emission intensity for each industry. The results indicate that an ambitious Net Zero Emission (NZE) scenario will reduce emissions from 466 MtCO₂e to 56 MtCO₂e by 2060. Energy efficiency contributes 8 %, new and renewable energy accounts for 37 %, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) plays a significant role, contributing 33 %. However, decarbonization efforts increase production costs in the cement, iron & steel, paper, and petrochemical industries by 138 %, 58 %, 2 %, and 90 %, respectively. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers to balance environmental sustainability with economic growth, facilitating a smooth transition to a low-carbon economy.

工业部门的脱碳努力仍然主要集中在发达国家。然而，印度尼西亚等发展中国家在使能源密集型产业脱碳方面面临严峻挑战，而这对经济增长至关重要。主要挑战包括低碳技术选择的不确定性和高投资要求，这意味着额外的生产成本。本研究旨在评估工业部门潜在的脱碳途径及其对生产成本的影响。采用自底向上的优化方法，使用TIMES模型，通过最小化生产成本，同时实现每个行业的目标二氧化碳排放强度，来确定最优的技术路径。结果表明，到2060年，雄心勃勃的净零排放（NZE）情景将使排放量从4.66亿吨二氧化碳当量减少到5600亿吨二氧化碳当量。能源效率贡献了8%，新能源和可再生能源占37%，碳捕集、利用和封存（CCUS）发挥了重要作用，贡献了33%。然而，脱碳的努力增加了水泥、铁等材料的生产成本。钢铁、造纸和石化行业分别增长138%、58%、2%和90%。这项研究为政策制定者平衡环境可持续性与经济增长，促进向低碳经济的顺利过渡提供了有价值的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Defining ‘abated’ fossil fuel and industrial process emissions 定义“减少”的化石燃料和工业过程排放

IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy and climate change

Pub Date : 2025-06-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100203

Christopher Bataille , Alaa Al Khourdajie , Heleen de Coninck , Kiane de Kleijne , Lars J. Nilsson , Igor Bashmakov , Steven J. Davis , Paul S. Fennell

There is scientific consensus that limiting warming in line with the Paris Agreement goals requires reaching net zero CO₂ emissions by mid-century and net negative emissions thereafter. Because of the entrenchment of current fossil fuel energy and feedstock demand estimated in almost all global modelled scenarios, 'abated' fossil fuel and industrial process and product use (IPPU) CO₂ emissions, using carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies to perform carbon management, are likely to be part of any transition. In addition to fossil fuel combustion, this will be primarily in cement & lime kilns, chemical production, and possibly waste incineration and iron and steel making, in processes producing maximally concentrated CO₂ waste streams. Abated fossil fuel and IPPU CO₂ emissions in the context of recent commitments, however, requires consideration of capture rates for fuel processing and end-use, permanence of storage, reduction of upstream production and end-use fugitive methane, and sufficient means to sequester residual emissions. Based on an assessment of evolving CCS technologies in existing sectors and jurisdictions, criteria are proposed for defining a benchmark for 'abated' fossil fuel and IPPU emissions as where near 100 % GHG abatement is to be eventually achieved, with N₂O and fluorinated gases considered separately. This can be accomplished through: 1) CO₂ capture rates of more than or equal to 95 % of CO₂ emitted; 2) permanent storage of captured emissions; 3) reducing upstream and end-use fugitive methane emissions to <0.5 % and towards 0.2 % of gas production & an equivalent for coal; and 4) counterbalancing remaining emissions using permanent carbon dioxide removal. Application of these criteria to just steel and cement yields estimates of more than or equal to 1.37 Gt CO₂ per year reductions after all other reasonable and lower cost actions are taken. At the same time, we acknowledge the value of capture rates below 95 %, so as long they are designed to enable eventual full abatement through process learning. We also discuss commercialisation and deployment policy for CCS, highlighting the need to integrate these criteria into international climate agreements.

科学界一致认为，按照《巴黎协定》的目标限制气候变暖需要在本世纪中叶达到二氧化碳净零排放，之后达到净负排放。由于在几乎所有全球模拟情景中估计的当前化石燃料能源和原料需求的巩固，“减少”化石燃料和工业过程和产品使用（IPPU）的二氧化碳排放，使用碳捕获和储存（CCS）技术进行碳管理，可能是任何转型的一部分。除了化石燃料燃烧外，这将主要用于水泥。石灰窑、化学生产，以及可能的废物焚烧和钢铁制造，在产生最大浓度二氧化碳废物流的过程中。然而，在最近承诺的范围内，减少化石燃料和IPPU的二氧化碳排放需要考虑燃料加工和最终使用的捕获率、储存的持久性、减少上游生产和最终使用逸出的甲烷以及吸收残余排放的充分手段。根据对现有部门和司法管辖区不断发展的CCS技术的评估，提出了确定“减少”化石燃料和IPPU排放基准的标准，其中最终将实现接近100%的温室气体减排，并分别考虑一氧化二氮和氟化气体。这可以通过以下方式实现：1)二氧化碳捕获率超过或等于排放二氧化碳的95%；2)永久储存捕获的排放物；3)将上游和最终用途的逸散甲烷排放量减少到占天然气产量的0.5%，并减少到0.2%；煤的等价物；4)通过永久去除二氧化碳来平衡剩余的排放。将这些标准应用于钢铁和水泥，在采取所有其他合理且成本较低的行动后，估计每年减少的二氧化碳量超过或等于1.37亿吨。与此同时，我们承认捕获率低于95%的价值，只要它们的设计能够通过过程学习实现最终的全面减排。我们还讨论了CCS的商业化和部署政策，强调了将这些标准纳入国际气候协议的必要性。

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引用次数: 0

Navigating the selection of renewable energy trading partners: A multi-objective optimization approach 导航选择可再生能源贸易伙伴：多目标优化方法

IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy and climate change

Pub Date : 2025-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100197

Erik Jansen , Mile Mišić , Kai Schulze , Michèle Knodt , Marc E. Pfetsch

Decarbonizing economies and energy systems is urgently needed in order to meet current climate change mitigation targets. However, many countries, particularly in Europe, will not be able to meet their rapidly growing demand for renewable energy by expanding domestic production alone in the near future. Consequently, these countries are planning to import renewable energy using chemical carriers such as hydrogen and metals. This raises the question of which countries to partner with for renewable energy trade. Selecting the appropriate trading partners is a complex task that requires balancing several potentially conflicting objectives, including cost-efficiency, sustainability, governance, and security of supply. In this article, we present a novel approach to selecting partner countries in the presence of such trade-offs. Our approach uses empirical indicators, abstract selection rules, and the epsilon constraint method to combine these objectives into a single objective optimization problem with additional constraints. We demonstrate our approach by examining the case of Germany as an importer of renewable energy using iron as an energy carrier. Our approach identifies the optimal set of potential trading partners and their respective shares of supplied renewable energy by minimizing costs while meeting the added constraints. For instance, under the most stringent sustainability and security constraints, the model identifies Australia, the United States, Brazil, Spain, Canada, and Chile as potential trading partners for Germany. Relaxing these constraints adds more countries such as Morocco and Oman. Our approach is the first to identify trade networks, i.e., concrete sets of partner countries, that can bridge gaps in renewable energy supply, offering valuable guidance for developing trading partnerships.

为实现当前减缓气候变化的目标，迫切需要使经济和能源系统脱碳。然而，在不久的将来，许多国家，特别是欧洲国家，将无法仅通过扩大国内生产来满足其对可再生能源迅速增长的需求。因此，这些国家正在计划进口利用氢和金属等化学载体的可再生能源。这就提出了与哪些国家进行可再生能源贸易合作的问题。选择合适的贸易伙伴是一项复杂的任务，需要平衡几个潜在的冲突目标，包括成本效率、可持续性、治理和供应安全。在本文中，我们提出了一种在存在这种权衡的情况下选择伙伴国家的新方法。我们的方法使用经验指标、抽象选择规则和epsilon约束方法，将这些目标组合成一个带有附加约束的单一目标优化问题。我们通过研究德国作为使用铁作为能源载体的可再生能源进口国的案例来展示我们的方法。我们的方法确定了一组最佳的潜在贸易伙伴及其各自的可再生能源供应份额，通过最小化成本，同时满足增加的限制。例如，在最严格的可持续性和安全约束下，该模型将澳大利亚、美国、巴西、西班牙、加拿大和智利确定为德国的潜在贸易伙伴。放宽这些限制会增加更多的国家，如摩洛哥和阿曼。我们的方法是首先确定贸易网络，即具体的伙伴国，以弥补可再生能源供应方面的差距，为发展贸易伙伴关系提供有价值的指导。

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引用次数: 0