Energy and climate change最新文献_第4页

Fuelling the future: A case-study on traditional cooking fuels and clean energy adoption in rural north-Indian households 推动未来：印度北部农村家庭采用传统烹饪燃料和清洁能源的案例研究

IF 5.6 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy and climate change

Pub Date : 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100219

Arnab Mondal , Ritu Jangirh , Tuhin Kumar Mandal

India's commitment to net-zero target of 2070 is significantly hindered by its constant reliance on traditional fuels along with cleaner alternatives like liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), especially in rural households where cooking and heating needs are met through these sources. The widespread adoption of clean cooking fuels is crucial for meeting net-zero commitments. A detailed survey conducted in the rural areas of six districts in Haryana, revealed that 62 % of households still depend on traditional fuels, including firewood, dung cakes, and crop residues. Utilising binary and multinomial logistic regression models, this study identified key socio-economic determinants influencing the adoption of clean fuels, such as agricultural land ownership, aesthetic preferences, and the availability of dedicated kitchen spaces. Economic constraints emerged as the primary factors driving fuel stacking behaviours, where households resort to using both traditional and clean fuels. The findings highlight the intricate relationship between energy consumption patterns and economic conditions in India, emphasizing the need for a holistic strategy to facilitate the shift towards sustainable energy solutions. Furthermore, the study quantifies the total consumption of traditional fuels and assesses the associated emissions of household air pollutants (HAP) using established emission factors. Notably, Delhi, positioned downwind of Haryana, stands to benefit significantly from the elimination of traditional fuels, as this transition would alleviate the pollution burden associated with such practices.

印度一直依赖传统燃料以及液化石油气（LPG）等更清洁的替代品，特别是在农村家庭，烹饪和取暖需求都是通过这些燃料来满足的，这严重阻碍了印度实现2070年净零目标的承诺。广泛采用清洁烹饪燃料对于实现净零承诺至关重要。在哈里亚纳邦六个县的农村地区进行的一项详细调查显示，62%的家庭仍然依赖传统燃料，包括木柴、粪饼和农作物秸秆。利用二元和多项逻辑回归模型，本研究确定了影响清洁燃料采用的关键社会经济决定因素，如农业土地所有权、审美偏好和专用厨房空间的可用性。经济限制成为推动燃料堆积行为的主要因素，家庭同时使用传统燃料和清洁燃料。研究结果强调了印度能源消费模式和经济状况之间的复杂关系，强调需要一个整体战略来促进向可持续能源解决方案的转变。此外，该研究量化了传统燃料的总消耗，并利用既定的排放因子评估了家庭空气污染物的相关排放。值得注意的是，位于哈里亚纳邦下风的德里将从传统燃料的淘汰中受益匪浅，因为这种转变将减轻与此类做法相关的污染负担。

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引用次数: 0

A simulation-based analysis for the road freight transport decarbonization: A case study of Colombia 基于模拟的道路货运脱碳分析——以哥伦比亚为例

IF 5.6 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy and climate change

Pub Date : 2025-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100216

Cristiam Gil , Andres Rey-Ladino , Gordon Wilmsmeier , Ana María Montes , Emrah Demir , Wessam Abouarghoub , Vasco Sanchez-Rodrigues

This study introduces a simulation-based analysis of the decarbonization options for the road freight transport sector. It focuses on exploring the impact of operational and management measures on fleet renewal strategies aimed at achieving net zero goals by 2050. The proposed approach integrates current and planned future policy changes, operational practices, and technology renewal into the modeling process to offer a macro-level perspective on the decarbonization challenge. Specifically, the proposed modeling approach takes into account the reduction of empty trips, the optimization of cargo consolidation, and the promotion of eco-driving practices based on national freight transport data (i.e. covering more than 7.99 million trips). The proposed approach examines the effect of introducing contemporary vehicle technologies, such as new diesel vehicles (EURO VI or higher), new natural gas vehicles (EURO VI or higher), electric vehicles and hydrogen vehicles, as feasible replacements for aging vehicles powered by conventional fossil fuels. The adoption of these cleaner and newer technologies demonstrates the potential for emission reductions of up to 13% (2,070,000 tons CO₂e) by 2030 and 47% (13,232,000 tons CO₂e) by 2050. In addition, the results obtained from this research can serve as an exemplary case study for other emerging economies.

本研究对公路货运部门的脱碳方案进行了基于模拟的分析。它的重点是探索运营和管理措施对旨在到2050年实现净零目标的船队更新战略的影响。提出的方法将当前和计划中的未来政策变化、操作实践和技术更新集成到建模过程中，以提供对脱碳挑战的宏观视角。具体而言，所提出的建模方法考虑了基于国家货运数据（即覆盖超过799万次行程）的空载减少、货物集运优化和生态驾驶实践的推广。提议的方法检验了引入现代汽车技术的效果，例如新的柴油汽车（欧盟VI或更高），新的天然气汽车（欧盟VI或更高），电动汽车和氢燃料汽车，作为传统化石燃料驱动的老化车辆的可行替代品。采用这些更清洁和更新的技术表明，到2030年，排放量可减少13%（2,070,000吨二氧化碳当量），到2050年可减少47%（13,232,000吨二氧化碳当量）。此外，本研究的结果可以作为其他新兴经济体的示范案例研究。

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引用次数: 0

Building trust in the energy transition: an approach based on behavioral science 在能源转型中建立信任：一种基于行为科学的方法

IF 5.6 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy and climate change

Pub Date : 2025-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100217

John Pickering , Mahika Hari , Genevieve Kieseker , Marissa Jordan , Elke Weber , Chris Greig , Echo D. Cartwright , Elizabeth Smith , Sheila Webb-Halpern , Toneya McIntosh

Climate change necessitates an urgent transition away from fossil fuels and towards renewable energy, yet widespread public support for a shift in energy systems does not guarantee local acceptance of renewable energy developments and projects. This article explores the complexities inherent in community opposition to local renewable energy developments and shares strategies to enhance community understanding and involvement in decision-making. We adopt a behavioral science approach that integrates both individual and group-level insights to complement and build on frameworks in political economy, facilitation, and community organizing to empower communities to make informed, self-determined choices through more inclusive, participatory processes. The insights presented in this article derive from and distill the authors’ experiences and observations as applied behavioral scientists, practitioners, and researchers working at the intersection of energy transition and community acceptance. We first outline five key barriers that underlie community opposition and then propose a four-step solution to build capacity within communities to make effective decisions around renewable energy developments. We discuss actions that policymakers and practitioners can take to promote effective engagement with communities – and, in particular, economic and resource disadvantaged communities – to ensure that the benefits of renewable energy are equitably shared, and that no community is left behind in the transition to a sustainable energy future.

气候变化迫切需要从化石燃料转向可再生能源，但公众对能源系统转变的广泛支持并不能保证地方接受可再生能源开发和项目。本文探讨了社区反对当地可再生能源发展的内在复杂性，并分享了加强社区理解和参与决策的策略。我们采用行为科学方法，整合个人和群体层面的见解，以补充和建立政治经济、促进和社区组织的框架，使社区能够通过更具包容性和参与性的过程做出知情、自主的选择。本文中提出的见解来源于并提炼了作者作为应用行为科学家、实践者和研究人员在能量转换和社区接受的交叉点上的经验和观察。我们首先概述了社区反对的五个主要障碍，然后提出了一个四步解决方案，在社区内部建立能力，以围绕可再生能源发展做出有效的决策。我们讨论了政策制定者和实践者可以采取的行动，以促进社区的有效参与，特别是经济和资源劣势社区，以确保公平分享可再生能源的利益，并确保在向可持续能源未来的过渡中没有任何社区掉队。

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引用次数: 0

Citizens' creative capital in energy governance: enacting inclusive energy governance in the Netherlands and France 能源治理中的公民创造性资本：荷兰和法国实施包容性能源治理

IF 5.6 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy and climate change

Pub Date : 2025-09-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100218

Adrien Chanteloup , Lea Diestelmeier , Goda Perlaviciute

Citizens are, and will be, increasingly impacted by climate change and the energy transition. However, citizens are more often excluded from the governance of the energy transition, which is typically centralized and vertically organised. A (transition towards a) modified energy system is usually not something addressed at citizen level. This article explores the potential narratives of citizens concerning (new) forms of energy governance. Our bottom-up qualitative approach gathered perspectives from randomly selected Dutch and French citizens through semi-structured interviews, on the existing and future energy governance models. Participants advocated for the implementation of energy efficiency and sufficiency strategies. Both strategies imply radical shifts in energy governance, essentially for what and how energy is produced and used. Next, participants proposed original ideas for enacting a more inclusive, democratic and just energy governance, demonstrating a high capability to imagine different futures for themselves and society in relation to energy and energy governance. We identify citizens’ “creative capital” for energy governance and argue that this brings added value for designing energy governance for a more socially, politically and environmentally sustainable energy system.

气候变化和能源转型对公民的影响将越来越大。然而，公民往往被排除在能源转型的治理之外，能源转型通常是集中的、垂直组织的。一个（向一个）改进的能源系统的过渡通常不是在公民层面上解决的问题。本文探讨了公民关于（新）能源治理形式的潜在叙述。我们自下而上的定性方法通过半结构化访谈收集了随机选择的荷兰和法国公民对现有和未来能源治理模式的看法。与会者倡导实施能源效率和充足战略。这两项战略都意味着能源治理的根本转变，本质上是能源生产和使用的内容和方式。接下来，与会者就如何建立一个更包容、民主和公正的能源治理提出了独到的见解，展示了他们在能源和能源治理方面为自己和社会设想不同未来的能力。我们确定了公民在能源治理方面的“创造性资本”，并认为这为设计能源治理带来了附加价值，从而使能源体系在社会、政治和环境方面更具可持续性。

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引用次数: 0

Research progress of integrated assessment models in food-water-energy-environment analysis: A bibliometric analysis 食物-水-能-环境综合评价模型的研究进展：文献计量分析

IF 5.6 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy and climate change

Pub Date : 2025-09-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100215

Songhua Huan , Liwen Liu

The Food-Water-Energy-Environment (FWEE) analysis plays a crucial role in understanding the interconnected challenges of resource scarcity, sustainability, and climate change. However, these challenges are often complex and interdependent, making it difficult for a single model to capture their full dynamics. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) have emerged as a promising approach to address this issue. As a result, IAMs within the FWEE framework have become a major research focus, attracting considerable academic attention. Despite this, current research is fragmented and lacks a cohesive framework. To fill this gap, we conducted a bibliometric analysis using data from the Web of Science Core Collection, reviewing IAMs research in the FWEE domain from 1990 to 2024. Utilizing VOSviewer and CiteSpace for data visualization and assessment, we mapped the research landscape of IAMs in FWEE. Our study employed various techniques, such as co-occurrence analysis, clustering, and burst analysis, to: (1) identify key research trends, journals, and domains; (2) map the leading countries, their collaborations, and prominent authors and institutions; (3) highlight the foundational knowledge system, focusing on model development, emerging technologies, and research methods, noting a shift from early theoretical analyses to empirical studies on emerging technologies and policy analysis; and (4) pinpoint current research hotspots, including energy technology, social costs, and technical change, while providing an overview of research evolution and quality distribution. Finally, we suggest that future studies focus on advancing IAMs development for FWEE, especially with the integration of artificial intelligence. This study offers a comprehensive framework of existing research, providing valuable insights for future theoretical exploration and innovative applications.

食物-水-能源-环境（FWEE）分析在理解资源短缺、可持续性和气候变化等相互关联的挑战方面发挥着至关重要的作用。然而，这些挑战通常是复杂和相互依赖的，使得单个模型很难捕捉到它们的全部动态。综合评估模型（iam）已经成为解决这一问题的一种很有前途的方法。因此，在FWEE框架内的iam已经成为一个主要的研究焦点，引起了相当大的学术关注。尽管如此，目前的研究是碎片化的，缺乏一个有凝聚力的框架。为了填补这一空白，我们使用Web of Science核心馆藏的数据进行了文献计量分析，回顾了1990年至2024年在FWEE领域的IAMs研究。利用VOSviewer和CiteSpace进行数据可视化和评估，绘制了FWEE中IAMs的研究格局。本研究采用了共现分析、聚类分析和突发分析等多种技术：(1)确定关键研究趋势、期刊和领域；(2)绘制主要国家、合作伙伴、知名作者和机构的地图；(3)突出基础知识体系，重点关注模型开发、新兴技术和研究方法，从早期的理论分析转向新兴技术和政策分析的实证研究；(4)指出能源技术、社会成本和技术变革等当前研究热点，并提供研究演变和质量分布概况。最后，我们建议未来的研究重点是推进面向FWEE的人工智能系统的发展，特别是与人工智能的融合。本研究为现有研究提供了一个全面的框架，为未来的理论探索和创新应用提供了有价值的见解。

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引用次数: 0

A broader view of carbon pricing: The role of general energy taxes in emission reductions 碳定价的宏观视角：一般能源税在减排中的作用

IF 5.6 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy and climate change

Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100214

Ilya Stepanov , Johan Albrecht

Carbon pricing is a key element of climate policy, but carbon taxes and emissions trading currently cover less than a quarter of global emissions. By contrast, economy-wide general energy taxes (e.g., motor fuel taxes), although not originally designed for climate purposes, can also contribute to emission reductions. Based on European tax statistics and emissions data, this paper compares explicit carbon pricing with general energy taxes, which also place a price on carbon, albeit indirectly. We apply a two-way fixed effects panel regression to a sample of 31 countries over the period 2002–2018. The results indicate that a 1% increase in explicit carbon prices and general energy taxes has, on average, led to a 0.6% and 0.9% reduction in emissions, respectively, with no statistically significant difference between their estimated impacts. Our findings confirm the importance of explicit carbon pricing, which directly targets the carbon content of fuel use and encourages a shift toward cleaner energy sources. Although less frequently discussed in the climate policy context, general energy taxes have a comparable impact on emissions, owing to their wide application and their role in promoting more efficient energy use.

碳定价是气候政策的一个关键要素，但目前碳税和排放交易覆盖的排放量不到全球排放量的四分之一。相比之下，经济范围内的一般能源税（例如，汽车燃油税）虽然最初不是为气候目的而设计的，但也可以有助于减少排放。基于欧洲税收统计和排放数据，本文比较了明确的碳定价与一般能源税，后者也对碳定价，尽管是间接的。我们对2002年至2018年期间31个国家的样本进行了双向固定效应面板回归。结果表明，平均而言，明确的碳价格和一般能源税每增加1%，分别导致排放量减少0.6%和0.9%，两者的估计影响之间没有统计学上的显著差异。我们的研究结果证实了明确的碳定价的重要性，它直接针对燃料使用的碳含量，并鼓励向清洁能源的转变。虽然在气候政策范围内较少讨论，但由于一般能源税的广泛应用及其在促进更有效地使用能源方面的作用，它对排放具有相当的影响。

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引用次数: 0

Future changes in surface solar radiation over India: A bias-corrected and downscaled assessment of CMIP6 projections for renewable energy planning 印度地表太阳辐射的未来变化：对可再生能源规划的CMIP6预估的偏差校正和缩小的评估

IF 5.6 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy and climate change

Pub Date : 2025-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100213

Ashwin Vijay Jadhav, Rohini Lakshman Bhawar

Understanding future changes in surface solar radiation (SSR) is crucial for long-term renewable energy planning, especially in solar-rich countries such as India. However, high-resolution and bias-corrected SSR datasets for India remain scarce, limiting accurate assessment of future solar energy potential. In this study, we develop daily bias-corrected and statistically downscaled (BCD) dataset of SSR at a spatial resolution of 0.25°×0.25° for the Indian subcontinent. Simulations from nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-6 (CMIP6) climate models are used for the historical period (1951–2014) and future period (2021–2100) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP5–8.5). The BCD was implemented using the Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) method at each fine-resolution grid point, improving local-scale variability representation. ERA5’s surface solar radiation downward (SSRD) is used as the reference dataset to downscale, bias correct, and validate the models. Evaluation of BCD dataset against observations showed substantial performance improvement, with correlation coefficients increasing from 0.65 to 0.81 (raw) to 0.89–0.94 (corrected) and reducing root mean square error across all models. These improvements in dataset reliability lay a strong foundation for analysing future SSR dynamics under different climate scenarios.

Future projections indicate a progressive decline in SSR with increasing emission intensity: modest changes under SSP1–2.6, with slight positive anomalies over parts of northern India, and pronounced reductions of up to –10 % under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5, particularly over central, southern, and eastern India. Decadal trends reveal average declines of –0.11 %, –0.52 %, and –0.60 % per decade under SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5, respectively, with a temporary slowdown in mid-century (2041–2060) under SSP2–4.5 followed by renewed intensification. The resulting high-resolution BCD dataset not only represents a technical advancement in the robust downscaling of CMIP6 SSR for India but also provides a practical resource to guide solar park siting, optimize grid integration strategies, and support climate-resilient energy policy development.

了解地表太阳辐射（SSR）的未来变化对于长期的可再生能源规划至关重要，特别是在太阳能资源丰富的国家，如印度。然而，印度的高分辨率和偏差校正SSR数据集仍然稀缺，限制了对未来太阳能潜力的准确评估。在这项研究中，我们开发了印度次大陆SSR的每日偏差校正和统计降尺度（BCD）数据集，空间分辨率为0.25°×0.25°。利用9个耦合模式比对项目第6阶段（CMIP6）气候模式对历史时期（1951—2014年）和未来时期（2021—2100年）在3种共享社会经济路径（ssp1—2.6、ssp2—4.5、ssp5—8.5）下的模拟结果。在每个精细分辨率网格点上使用经验分位数映射（EQM）方法实现BCD，改善了局域尺度变异性的表示。以ERA5的地表太阳向下辐射（SSRD）作为参考数据集，对模型进行降尺度、偏置校正和验证。BCD数据集对观测数据的评估显示出显著的性能改进，相关系数从0.65 - 0.81（原始）增加到0.89-0.94（修正），并降低了所有模型的均方根误差。这些数据可靠性的提高为分析未来不同气候情景下SSR动态奠定了坚实的基础。未来的预测表明，SSR随着排放强度的增加而逐渐下降：在SSP1-2.6下变化不大，在印度北部部分地区有轻微的正异常，在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5下显著减少高达- 10%，特别是在印度中部、南部和东部。年代际趋势显示，在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5条件下，平均每10年下降幅度分别为- 0.11%、- 0.52%和- 0.60%，在SSP2-4.5条件下，在本世纪中期（2041-2060年）出现暂时放缓，随后再次增强。由此产生的高分辨率BCD数据集不仅代表了印度CMIP6 SSR稳健缩减的技术进步，而且为指导太阳能园区选址、优化电网整合策略和支持气候适应型能源政策制定提供了实用资源。

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引用次数: 0

Citizen participation in local energy communities: A social identity and pro-environmental behaviour joint perspective 地方能源社区的公民参与：社会认同与环保行为的联合视角

IF 5.6 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy and climate change

Pub Date : 2025-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100212

Catarina Neves , Tiago Oliveira , Stylianos Karatzas

Local energy communities present great potential in changing the current energy paradigm, contributing to a more decarbonized and decentralized system aligned with the sustainable development goals. Given this, it is highly relevant to understanding the antecedents of citizens' intention to participate in these communities. Therefore, this work focuses on two main elements of these communities – social and environmental. Hence, citizen behaviour is analysed in light of the social identity and pro-environmental behaviour theories. Moreover, the knowledge dimension is assessed as a moderator of those relationships. The model is tested using a sample of 400 individuals from Greece using structural equation modelling. The work uncovers the relevance of community commitment, trust, and pro-environmental behaviour. Additionally, knowledge is found to be a strong moderator. These findings are especially relevant for practitioners to comprehend better and boost citizens' willingness to participate in local energy communities.

地方能源社区在改变目前的能源模式方面具有巨大潜力，有助于建立一个符合可持续发展目标的更加脱碳和分散的系统。鉴于此，理解公民参与这些社区的意愿的先决条件是高度相关的。因此，这项工作的重点是这些社区的两个主要因素-社会和环境。因此，根据社会认同和亲环境行为理论来分析公民行为。此外，知识维度被评估为这些关系的调节因子。该模型使用结构方程模型对来自希腊的400个人样本进行了测试。这项工作揭示了社区承诺、信任和亲环境行为之间的相关性。此外，知识被发现是一个强大的调节。这些发现对于从业者更好地理解和提高公民参与当地能源社区的意愿尤为重要。

引用次数: 0

Transportation in net-zero emissions futures: Insights from the EMF-37 model intercomparison study 净零排放未来的交通运输：来自EMF-37模型比较研究的见解

IF 5.6 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy and climate change

Pub Date : 2025-08-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100211

Christopher Hoehne , Matteo Muratori , John Bistline , Carol Lenox , David L. McCollum , Morgan Browning , Kara Podkaminer , Robert H. Beach , Robbie Orvis , Shiqi Ou , Page Kyle , Sharyn Lie , Megan Mahajan , Haewon McJeon , Catherine Ledna , Marc Melaina , Yongxia Cai , Christopher Ramig , Aniss Bahreinian , Nadejda Victor , John Weyant

Transportation is currently the largest source of U.S. anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, at about a third of the total. Achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century will require substantial reductions in transportation emissions across passenger and freight travel. Here we leverage a model intercomparison study to explore the role of transportation in scenarios achieving net-zero economy-wide CO₂ emissions by 2050. We find the transport sector is poised to play the most significant role in reducing demand-side emissions, mostly driven by technology substitution, as modeling results suggest a limited role for mode shifting and for reduced use of personal car travel in the U.S. Among various technology solutions, models show agreement that passenger on-road vehicles will largely transition to electric vehicles (EVs), while solutions to decarbonize heavier travel modes are more diverse and include greater use of liquid biofuels and hydrogen. Research should continue to investigate the evolution of on-road electrification, the role of biofuels and hydrogen across heavier travel modes, and the role of mode shifting and travel behavior change to support personal transportation decarbonization at national and regional scales to temper the rapid growth in clean fuel and electricity demand.

目前，交通运输是美国人为二氧化碳排放的最大来源，约占总量的三分之一。到本世纪中叶实现净零排放将需要大幅减少客运和货运的运输排放。在这里，我们利用模型相互比较研究来探索交通在2050年实现全经济净零二氧化碳排放的情景中的作用。我们发现，交通运输部门将在减少需求侧排放方面发挥最重要的作用，这主要是由技术替代驱动的，因为建模结果表明，在美国，模式转换和减少个人汽车出行的作用有限。在各种技术解决方案中，模型显示，公路客运车辆将主要过渡到电动汽车（ev）。而使重型出行方式脱碳的解决方案则更加多样化，包括更多地使用液体生物燃料和氢气。研究应继续调查道路电气化的演变，生物燃料和氢在重型旅行模式中的作用，以及模式转换和旅行行为改变在国家和区域范围内支持个人交通脱碳的作用，以缓和清洁燃料和电力需求的快速增长。

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引用次数: 0

JMIP 2 Part 1: Technology uncertainty and robustness in Japan’s net-zero pathways JMIP 2第1部分：日本净零路径中的技术不确定性和稳健性

IF 5.6 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy and climate change

Pub Date : 2025-07-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100210

Masahiro Sugiyama , Hiroto Shiraki , Shinichiro Fujimori , Kenichi Wada , Tao CAO , Eamon Frazer , Hiroshi Hamasaki , Etsushi Kato , Yuhji Matsuo , Osamu Nishiura , Tatsuya Okubo , Ken Oshiro , Takashi Otsuki , Fuminori Sano , Hiroki Yoshida

Japan’s commitment to reach net-zero 2050 hinges on innovation in emerging, uncertain technologies. Yet, no study has systematically examined uncertainties in technology development for Japan’s net-zero goal in a multi-model framework. Here, we close this research gap by presenting the results of the Japan Model Intercomparison Project (JMIP) 2. Across models and technology scenarios with wide spreads in costs of emerging technologies, we consistently identify the following robust strategies for net zero: (1) reducing unabated fossil fuels, (2) improving economy-wide energy efficiency, (3) decarbonizing the power sector, and (4) deploying carbon dioxide removal. We also find that although the expansion of variable renewable energy and end-use electrification is robust, the precise level in 2050 remains uncertain. Using technology sensitivity scenarios, we show that the marginal cost of abatement (or carbon price) is significantly affected by the availability of carbon removal. Affordability of hydrogen and ammonia imports significantly affects primary energy supply in some models, underscoring a policy architecture that can flexibly adapt as the techno-economic landscape evolves.

日本在2050年实现净零排放的承诺取决于新兴、不确定技术的创新。然而，目前还没有研究在多模型框架下系统地考察日本净零目标技术发展的不确定性。在这里，我们通过介绍日本模型比较项目（JMIP） 2的结果来缩小这一研究差距。在新兴技术成本广泛分布的模型和技术方案中，我们一致确定了以下稳健的净零战略：(1)减少未减少的化石燃料，(2)提高整个经济的能源效率，(3)使电力部门脱碳，以及(4)部署二氧化碳去除。我们还发现，尽管可变可再生能源和终端电气化的扩张势头强劲，但2050年的确切水平仍不确定。利用技术敏感性情景，我们发现减排的边际成本（或碳价格）受到碳去除可得性的显著影响。在某些模式下，氢和氨进口的可负担性对一次能源供应产生重大影响，这强调了可以随着技术经济格局的演变而灵活适应的政策架构。

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引用次数: 0