Energy and climate change最新文献

Global climate change, exacerbated by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, notably carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, offers enormous risks to the environment, development, and long-term sustainability. This study looks at how economic growth, renewable energy utilization, urbanization, industrialization, technological innovation, and forest area might help Bangladesh attain environmental sustainability by lowering CO₂ emissions. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing strategy was used to test time series data from 1990 to 2019, followed by the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) method. The empirical findings reveal that economic growth, urbanization, and industrialization increase CO₂ emissions in Bangladesh while improving renewable energy use, technological innovation, and forest area assistance to achieve environmental sustainability by reducing CO₂ emissions. In addition, the pairwise Granger causality test was utilized to capture the causal linkages between the variables. This article provides policy recommendations aimed at a low-carbon economy, promoting renewable energy use, sustainable urbanization, green industrialization, financing technological advancement, and sustainable forest management, to accomplish emission reduction and environmental sustainability in Bangladesh.

Ireland has some very bold targets, as part of a substantial overall greenhouse gas emissions reduction ambition. It is unclear however to what extent these targets are consistent with the pace at which new technologies can enter the market and become widely adopted. This paper grapples with this by combining well-respected and empirically validated estimates of technology diffusion together with energy models. Its purpose is to illuminate some of Ireland's challenges associated with meeting these targets. The results show Ireland's electric vehicle and residential retrofitting goals would require rates of technology diffusion that are well beyond the historical rates internationally of even the most successful transformations to date. This result calls Ireland's ambitions into question. Drawing on the theory of technology diffusion, the paper also provides insights into additional complementary policies that Ireland might consider in order to accelerate diffusion of key technologies. The paper demonstrates the means and the value of drawing on historical precedents to help determine the feasibility of future transition scenarios. It also points to how industry-standard diffusion theory can help to identify policy solutions to accelerate the energy transition.

Energy systems are becoming more complex as new energy sources are introduced in support of clean energy goals. These hybrid energy systems can be configured for cogeneration to account for multiple energy uses, including not only electricity but also space heating, water heating, and industrial process heat. Variable renewable energy systems are increasingly being added to hybrid systems to mitigate climate change and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This often creates additional challenges to meet energy demands due to variability associated with renewable generation. In support of energy planning for the new clean economy, the Hybrid Energy System Optimization (HESO) model has been developed to study the feasibility and benefits of nuclear-renewable hybrid energy systems. The model is formulated, as a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) algorithm, to determine the best energy mix by minimizing annual cost. Because electrification will play a significant role in realizing a clean economy, this study explores the potential economic viability of electrification of residential water and space heating in Ontario. Different energy scenarios have been analyzed to understand the challenges associated with electrification and determine which energy sources will significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, while also maintaining competitive energy costs. The results show that electrification of residential water heating can be a viable alternative to natural gas heaters; reducing GHG emissions and energy cost. However, electrification of residential space heating is more challenging due to the large seasonal temperature variations that create significant energy demand fluctuations. Additional nuclear and wind generating capacity, as well as storage systems, are all important elements to support Ontario's transition to a low carbon economy through electrification.

In 2002, China established the State Electricity Regulatory Commission as part of the nation's electricity reform plan. However, this agency existed for only a decade, after which it was incorporated into the National Energy Administration (NEA), a governmental department. Why did the independent regulatory model not survive in China? This paper introduces the historical background of regulatory institutional change in China and evaluates current regulatory governance against the standard of agency independence. The findings indicate that the NEA can hardly be regarded as independent from the government and stakeholders. Subsequently, the paper explains the reason that independent regulatory institutions are not applicable in China from the perspective of institutional supply and demand. From the demand side, as the macroeconomic controller, the National Development and Reform Commission can deliver superior policy output compared to an independent regulator. In addition, public ownership makes it unnecessary for the government to create an independent regulator as a credible commitment mechanism. From the supply side, the traditional administrative arrangement and lack of regulatory economics knowledge contribute to an undersupply of independent regulation.

In line with the global target in decarbonising the transportation sector and the noticeable increase of new electric vehicles (EV) owners, concerns are raised regarding the expected quantity of Retired EV Batteries (REVB) exposed to the environment when they reach 70–80% of their original capacity. However, there is significant potential for REVB, after deinstallation, to deliver energy for alternative applications such as storing surplus. This systematic review evaluates state-of-art modelling/experimental studies focused on repurposing REVB in second-life applications. Technical and economic viability of REVB repurposing has been confirmed to solve the unreliability of cleaner energy technologies and mitigate the high investment of new storage systems. 40% of included studies considered hybrid systems with PV being a dominant technology where REVB was evaluated to be small-scaled and large storage systems. Additionally, successful attempts were conducted to evaluate REVB performance in providing grid services. It has however, been discovered intensive grid services applications like frequency regulation, was technically challenging due to demanding working requirements. Reviewed studies considered different prices for REVB due to lack of market regulation on REVB resale; similarly, technical parameters, including initial State of Health (SoH) and State of Charge (SoC) constraints were inconsistent due to lack of standardisation.

We used the US-TIMES energy-system model in conjunction with integrated assessment models for air pollution (AP3, EASIUR, InMAP) to estimate the consequences of local air pollutant (LAP) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) policy on technology-choice, energy-system costs, emissions, and pollution damages in the United States. We report substantial policy spillover: Both LAP and CO₂ taxes cause similar levels of decarbonization. Under LAP taxes, decarbonization was a result of an increase in natural gas generation and a near-complete phaseout of coal generation in the electric sector. Under a CO₂ tax, the majority of simulated decarbonization was a result of increased electric generation from wind and solar. We also found that the timing of the CO₂ and LAP taxes was important. When we simulated a LAP tax beginning in 2015 and waited until 2025 to introduce a CO₂ tax, the electric sector was locked into higher levels of natural gas generation and cumulative 2010–2035 energy system CO₂ emissions were 8.8 billion tons higher than when the taxes were implemented simultaneously. A scenario taxing CO₂ and LAPs simultaneously beginning in 2015 produced the highest net benefits, as opposed to scenarios that target either CO₂ or LAPs, or scenarios that delayed either LAP or CO₂ taxes until 2025. Lastly, we found that net benefits compared to business as usual are higher under a regional versus a national LAP-tax regime, but that efficiency gains under the regional tax are not substantially higher than those under the national LAP-tax policy.

As countries set climate goals, they face questions on how these goals can be reached. Important studies have used a top-down approach, employing and comparing multiple Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to identify possible development pathways. These studies, however, are at very coarse time-steps; and do not include information on the geographic distribution of resources or infrastructure. Moreover, the multi-model approach, while useful, leaves questions as to how policy-makers and planners can use the divergent results. Using Mexico as a case study, we employ a bottom-up model of the electric power system to identify critical geographic areas of investment for installed capacity and transmission that are robust across a set of IAM-derived climate mitigation pathways. We find that, despite a lack of robustness in the location of installed capacity investments, investment in transmission expansion is fairly robust across pathways, as it is driven largely by the location of load rather than of generation.

This article analyzes road transport in India to explore linkages between air pollution and climate change policies in the transportation sector. Five teams modeled five policy scenarios – fuel efficiency, electrification, alternative fuels, modal shifts, and moderation in transport demand – to explore which policy brings the largest synergetic effects in reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) and particulate matter (PM_2.5) emissions. The teams also modeled the comprehensive scenario which included policy measures from individual scenarios. The paper concludes that all of the measures provide strong co-benefits in reducing air pollutants and CO₂ emissions. The modeling results show that the increased energy efficiency of passenger and freight vehicles has the largest potential for reducing both CO₂ and PM_2.5 emissions. It is possible to reach an even larger reduction of air pollutants and CO₂ emissions by combining several policy measures in the comprehensive scenario.

Almost all modelled emissions scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement's target of limiting global temperature increase to well below two degrees include the use of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) techniques. Despite the prevalence of GGR in Paris-consistent scenarios, and indeed the UK's own net-zero target, there is a paucity of regulatory support for emerging GGR techniques. However, the role of carbon pricing is one area that has experienced more attention than others, including discussion about the future inclusion of GGR in carbon markets.

Here we identify three risks associated with using carbon markets as the sole, or main, policy lever to encourage the deployment of GGR techniques. Our categorisation of risks stems from discussions with policymakers in the UK and a review of the broader literature on carbon markets and GGR. We present a three-pronged risk assessment framework to highlight the dangers in doing so. First, treating emissions removals and emissions reductions as entirely fungible allows for undesirable substitution. Second, carbon markets may provide insufficient demand pull to drive currently more-costly GGR techniques to deployment at commercial scales. Third, opening up a carbon market for potentially lower-cost GGR (such as nature-based solutions) too early could exert downward pressure on the overall market-based price of carbon, in the absence of adjustments to emissions caps or other safeguards. We discuss how these risks could hamper overall efforts to deploy GGR, and instead suggest a multi-pronged and intertemporal policy and governance framework for GGR. This includes considering separate accounting targets for GGR and conventional emissions abatement, removing perfect fungibility between GGR permits and carbon market permits and promoting a a wide range of innovation and technology-specific mechanisms to drive currently expensive, yet highly scalable technological GGR down the cost curve. Such a framework would ensure that policymakers can utilise carbon markets and other incentives appropriately to drive development and deployment of GGR techniques without compromising near-term mitigation, and that the representation of GGR in modelled low-carbon pathways is cognisant of its real-world scale-up potential in light of these incentives.

Buildings play a significant role in indoor and outdoor exposure to heat in urban areas. In this study, we quantify the heat mitigation potential of typical building energy efficiency measures that are often not considered as urban heat mitigation strategies, such as added insulation. We combined whole-building energy and urban climate simulations to compare indoor and outdoor (pedestrian-level) heat exposure with different levels of energy efficiency and under different climate timeframes in a soon-to-be-built public housing project in Phoenix, AZ. We found that improved energy efficiency reduces indoor and outdoor exposure to heat while climate change increases both. Considering the 2018 version of the energy code as the baseline, the mitigating impact of upgrading energy efficiency on indoor exposure to heat (as defined by% of year T_indoor > T_{cooling setpoint} +1 °C) exceeded the increase caused by climate change. Our estimates show a 6.6% increase caused by climate change vs. 20.7% reduction due to improved efficiency. Furthermore, our results indicate that energy upgrades may also have an impact on outdoor heat exposure (as defined by% of year with T_outdoor> 40 °C) due to reduced heat emitted from the buildings and their HVAC systems. We found a 2% increase in exposure caused by climate change vs. 1.4% reduction due to by improved efficiency. This suggest that upgrading energy efficiency of buildings may at least partially offset the impact of climate change on outdoor exposure to heat in the modelled urban canyon.