Reaching net-zero emissions in Japan depends on technological advancements in energy efficiency and cost-effectiveness across both energy supply and demand sectors. Previous model comparison studies in Japan did not adequately address uncertainties from technological development under the latest net-zero commitment, potentially hindering effective stakeholder decision-making. This study coordinates multiple integrated assessment and energy systems models to analyze consistent policy and technology scenarios, focusing on energy transition pathways in end-use sectors. The results show that, to meet the net-zero requirement, all models exhibit a similar trend of declining total final energy demand, with a reduction of approximately 30% by 2050 relative to 2020. Meanwhile, electricity may account for around 50% or more of the total final energy in 2050 while hydrogen could grow to approximately 13%, with growth accelerating after 2040. Hydrogen is effective in achieving deep reductions in industrial emissions, and its necessity increases as emission targets become more stringent. The government has set ambitious targets for the utilization of hydrogen, but its deployment in end-use sectors requires further policy guidance to facilitate investment. The study emphasizes that end-use energy technology transformations should align with trends in both imported clean energy costs and domestic renewable energy costs.
{"title":"JMIP2 Part 3: The pace of hydrogen and electricity adoption in Japan’s demand-side decarbonization","authors":"Tao Cao , Eamon Frazer , Masahiro Sugiyama , Hiroto Shiraki , Shinichiro Fujimori , Kenichi Wada , Hiroshi Hamasaki , Etsushi Kato , Yuhji Matsuo , Osamu Nishiura , Tatsuya Okubo , Ken Oshiro , Takashi Otsuki , Fuminori Sano","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100223","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100223","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Reaching net-zero emissions in Japan depends on technological advancements in energy efficiency and cost-effectiveness across both energy supply and demand sectors. Previous model comparison studies in Japan did not adequately address uncertainties from technological development under the latest net-zero commitment, potentially hindering effective stakeholder decision-making. This study coordinates multiple integrated assessment and energy systems models to analyze consistent policy and technology scenarios, focusing on energy transition pathways in end-use sectors. The results show that, to meet the net-zero requirement, all models exhibit a similar trend of declining total final energy demand, with a reduction of approximately 30% by 2050 relative to 2020. Meanwhile, electricity may account for around 50% or more of the total final energy in 2050 while hydrogen could grow to approximately 13%, with growth accelerating after 2040. Hydrogen is effective in achieving deep reductions in industrial emissions, and its necessity increases as emission targets become more stringent. The government has set ambitious targets for the utilization of hydrogen, but its deployment in end-use sectors requires further policy guidance to facilitate investment. The study emphasizes that end-use energy technology transformations should align with trends in both imported clean energy costs and domestic renewable energy costs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100223"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145683886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100226
Roberta Oliveira, Alexandre Szklo, Talita Cruz
Conventional metrics often underestimate transport poverty in developing economies. We adapt the half-median (M/2) metric — originally applied for energy poverty — to detect concealed transport deprivation at the household level in Brazil. Using nationally representative, survey-weighted expenditure data stratified by income deciles, we find that 26 % of Brazilian households spend below half the national median on transport, rising to 59 % in the lowest income decile and falling to 4.5 % in the highest. These results indicate under-consumption driven by binding budget constraints rather than choice, with deprivation concentrated among the poorest families. The M/2 metric captures inequalities that remain invisible to burden-based indicators such as the “10 % rule,” and is robust to alternative thresholds in sensitivity analyses. Policy implications include targeted income or fare subsidies, expanded investment in affordable and reliable public transport, and routine monitoring of transport poverty within national social policy frameworks. Beyond Brazil, the approach is readily replicable in other emerging economies, informing equitable and sustainable mobility strategies aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
{"title":"Revealing transport poverty: A Brazilian application of the half-median metric","authors":"Roberta Oliveira, Alexandre Szklo, Talita Cruz","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100226","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100226","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Conventional metrics often underestimate transport poverty in developing economies. We adapt the half-median (M/2) metric — originally applied for energy poverty — to detect concealed transport deprivation at the household level in Brazil. Using nationally representative, survey-weighted expenditure data stratified by income deciles, we find that 26 % of Brazilian households spend below half the national median on transport, rising to 59 % in the lowest income decile and falling to 4.5 % in the highest. These results indicate under-consumption driven by binding budget constraints rather than choice, with deprivation concentrated among the poorest families. The M/2 metric captures inequalities that remain invisible to burden-based indicators such as the “10 % rule,” and is robust to alternative thresholds in sensitivity analyses. Policy implications include targeted income or fare subsidies, expanded investment in affordable and reliable public transport, and routine monitoring of transport poverty within national social policy frameworks. Beyond Brazil, the approach is readily replicable in other emerging economies, informing equitable and sustainable mobility strategies aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100226"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145683887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100225
Kyra de Korte , Sietske Veenman , Maria Kaufmann , Berber Pas , Bernard van Gastel , Arnoud Lagendijk
Data-driven energy technologies (DDET) are often framed as a panacea that will support the transition towards energy-neutrality by adjusting residents' energy practices. However, not all citizens seem to benefit equally from these technologies. To unpack how DDET influences citizens' capability to live a valuable life, we combine insights from the capability approach and future studies, addressing the following research question: "How does the use of DDET influence public renters’ capabilities, and what role do energy literacy and future expectations play in this relationship?" This research employs a qualitative approach, with two Dutch case studies: Public Renters of Net Zero-Energy Homes (NZEHs) and public renters in less energy-efficient homes provided with energy displays by their housing corporation. We used in-depth interviews and observations. The results underscore the necessity for a holistic, practice-based perspective on the energy transition, which takes on board end-users' perspectives on desirable futures. Technological solutions can only work effectively if they are accompanied by recognition and support of public renters' capabilities. Energy literacy is a crucial factor in how individuals use resources like DDET to achieve capabilities such as energy management and financial stability. Limited energy literacy, restricts meaningful resource use, creating stress and missed opportunities. Strong energy literacy can enable renters to anticipate multiple future scenarios, and enhance their quality of life.
{"title":"End-users’ capabilities and futures in the Dutch energy transition: the role of data-driven energy technology in social housing","authors":"Kyra de Korte , Sietske Veenman , Maria Kaufmann , Berber Pas , Bernard van Gastel , Arnoud Lagendijk","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100225","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100225","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Data-driven energy technologies (DDET) are often framed as a panacea that will support the transition towards energy-neutrality by adjusting residents' energy practices. However, not all citizens seem to benefit equally from these technologies. To unpack how DDET influences citizens' capability to live a valuable life, we combine insights from the capability approach and future studies, addressing the following research question: <em>\"How does the use of DDET influence public renters’ capabilities, and what role do energy literacy and future expectations play in this relationship?\"</em> This research employs a qualitative approach, with two Dutch case studies: Public Renters of Net Zero-Energy Homes (NZEHs) and public renters in less energy-efficient homes provided with energy displays by their housing corporation. We used in-depth interviews and observations. The results underscore the necessity for a holistic, practice-based perspective on the energy transition, which takes on board end-users' perspectives on desirable futures. Technological solutions can only work effectively if they are accompanied by recognition and support of public renters' capabilities. Energy literacy is a crucial factor in how individuals use resources like DDET to achieve capabilities such as energy management and financial stability. Limited energy literacy, restricts meaningful resource use, creating stress and missed opportunities. Strong energy literacy can enable renters to anticipate multiple future scenarios, and enhance their quality of life.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100225"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145617312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
While energy justice and just transition frameworks emphasize engaging a wide range of stakeholder voices in decision-making processes, strategies for doing so remain limited. This project investigated digital storytelling as a participatory method for identifying community priorities in southwest Wyoming, where communities are experiencing interrelated wellbeing challenges amid energy transition. In concert with a community-based organization, participants developed first-person audio-visual narratives (n = 8) about their assets, needs, and hopes for the future. The community-academic research team then conducted focus groups wherein other community members (n = 12) viewed and discussed the stories for robust community-based co-identification and interpretation of priorities. Thematic analysis resulted in five key priorities: maintaining community; family; nature and landscape; social services; and economic priorities. Findings show that community priorities are diverse, community members demonstrate resilience, and there is no single narrative of energy transition and wellbeing in southwest Wyoming. Moreover, watching stories humanized storytellers for audience members. Digital storytelling provides a tangible, accessible, and inclusive approach for engaging stakeholders to share and identify community priorities, which is a necessary (though insufficient) aspect of energy justice and just transition efforts. We present a detailed methodology and discuss strategies for replicating and adapting it such that community-based organizations could implement this approach in their energy transition efforts on a community, statewide, and/or regional scale.
{"title":"Wyoming Voices: Digital storytelling as a participatory method to co-identify community priorities amid energy transitions","authors":"Darylann Aragon , Rachael Budowle , Alyssa Wechsler Duba","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100227","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100227","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While energy justice and just transition frameworks emphasize engaging a wide range of stakeholder voices in decision-making processes, strategies for doing so remain limited. This project investigated digital storytelling as a participatory method for identifying community priorities in southwest Wyoming, where communities are experiencing interrelated wellbeing challenges amid energy transition. In concert with a community-based organization, participants developed first-person audio-visual narratives (<em>n</em> = 8) about their assets, needs, and hopes for the future. The community-academic research team then conducted focus groups wherein other community members (<em>n</em> = 12) viewed and discussed the stories for robust community-based co-identification and interpretation of priorities. Thematic analysis resulted in five key priorities: maintaining community; family; nature and landscape; social services; and economic priorities. Findings show that community priorities are diverse, community members demonstrate resilience, and there is no single narrative of energy transition and wellbeing in southwest Wyoming. Moreover, watching stories humanized storytellers for audience members. Digital storytelling provides a tangible, accessible, and inclusive approach for engaging stakeholders to share and identify community priorities, which is a necessary (though insufficient) aspect of energy justice and just transition efforts. We present a detailed methodology and discuss strategies for replicating and adapting it such that community-based organizations could implement this approach in their energy transition efforts on a community, statewide, and/or regional scale.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"7 ","pages":"Article 100227"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145697848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-16DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100224
Kowan T. V. O’Keefe , Matthew Binsted , Leon Clarke , Ryna Cui , Nathan Hultman , Robert Hunt Sprinkle
Canada is a major oil- and gas-producing country that has committed into law an ambitious goal: net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy-wide by 2050. In this work, transition dynamics for Canada are examined across several net-zero GHG emissions scenarios with detailed policy representation using the open-source Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). To our knowledge, this study is the first modeling analysis of Canadian net-zero GHG emissions scenarios with extensive policy representation and detailed sensitivity analysis. A major contribution of our open-method modeling approach is making our entire analysis publicly available to facilitate vetting, replicability, precise comparability with other studies, and modification by others to explore additional scenarios. Our results show that net-zero achievement in Canada would demand major technological transformation across all sectors of the economy. Scenarios presented herein highlight considerable gaps between Canada’s current policy actions and its net-zero ambitions. Indeed, the largest gaps between current-policy and net-zero scenarios pertain to rates of end-use electrification, buildout of power sector capacity, deployment of carbon dioxide removal, and accompanying reductions in production and consumption of fossil fuels. The results also highlight the importance of effective policy implementation and the variation in transition dynamics attributable to socioeconomic and technological assumptions, carbon dioxide removal scalability, and non-CO2 mitigation options.
{"title":"Net-zero for Canada: An open-method modeling approach","authors":"Kowan T. V. O’Keefe , Matthew Binsted , Leon Clarke , Ryna Cui , Nathan Hultman , Robert Hunt Sprinkle","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100224","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100224","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Canada is a major oil- and gas-producing country that has committed into law an ambitious goal: net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy-wide by 2050. In this work, transition dynamics for Canada are examined across several net-zero GHG emissions scenarios with detailed policy representation using the open-source Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). To our knowledge, this study is the first modeling analysis of Canadian net-zero GHG emissions scenarios with extensive policy representation and detailed sensitivity analysis. A major contribution of our open-method modeling approach is making our entire analysis publicly available to facilitate vetting, replicability, precise comparability with other studies, and modification by others to explore additional scenarios. Our results show that net-zero achievement in Canada would demand major technological transformation across all sectors of the economy. Scenarios presented herein highlight considerable gaps between Canada’s current policy actions and its net-zero ambitions. Indeed, the largest gaps between current-policy and net-zero scenarios pertain to rates of end-use electrification, buildout of power sector capacity, deployment of carbon dioxide removal, and accompanying reductions in production and consumption of fossil fuels. The results also highlight the importance of effective policy implementation and the variation in transition dynamics attributable to socioeconomic and technological assumptions, carbon dioxide removal scalability, and non-CO<sub>2</sub> mitigation options.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100224"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145571221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-31DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100222
Phemelo Tamasiga , Valentine Munyaradzi Dzingai , Helen Onyeaka , Rose Daphnee Tchonkouang , Kehinde Favour Siyanbola , Ulakom Genesis , George T. Mudimu
Transitioning to net-zero societies affects how energy is produced and consumed, with consequences for food security. Through a systematic review of 43 peer-reviewed studies that follow the PRISMA protocol, results reveal that renewable energy can enhance agricultural productivity by reducing operational costs, increasing efficiency in irrigation and processing, and providing reliable access to energy. However, challenges exist, including competition for land and water resources between renewable energy projects and food production, high upfront costs of clean energy technologies, limited access to credit facilities, and institutional bottlenecks. To overcome these challenges, recommended policies include offering subsidies and financial incentives to make clean energy more affordable for farmers, as well as providing education and training to support the adoption of sustainable practices. Furthermore, promoting collaboration between the public and private sectors is crucial to stimulate investment in renewable energy infrastructure. Moreover, these policies must be designed for specific national circumstances. High-income or upper-middle-income countries can deploy capital-intensive agrivoltaic and biogas technologies via concessional finance. In contrast, low-income settings should prioritize low-cost, decentralized solar pumps and off-grid dryers to build farmer confidence and trust. Countries with stronger regulatory frameworks and secure land tenure systems are better equipped to support large-scale renewable energy projects. At the same time, regions with weaker governance tend to benefit most from community-owned mini-grids. The mapping of policy options onto economic, institutional, and agro-ecological dimensions provides a nuanced, context-sensitive framework to guide equitable and effective energy transitions in diverse agricultural landscapes.
{"title":"Energy transition effects on food security amidst climate change and progress toward sustainable development goals","authors":"Phemelo Tamasiga , Valentine Munyaradzi Dzingai , Helen Onyeaka , Rose Daphnee Tchonkouang , Kehinde Favour Siyanbola , Ulakom Genesis , George T. Mudimu","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100222","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100222","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Transitioning to net-zero societies affects how energy is produced and consumed, with consequences for food security. Through a systematic review of 43 peer-reviewed studies that follow the PRISMA protocol, results reveal that renewable energy can enhance agricultural productivity by reducing operational costs, increasing efficiency in irrigation and processing, and providing reliable access to energy. However, challenges exist, including competition for land and water resources between renewable energy projects and food production, high upfront costs of clean energy technologies, limited access to credit facilities, and institutional bottlenecks. To overcome these challenges, recommended policies include offering subsidies and financial incentives to make clean energy more affordable for farmers, as well as providing education and training to support the adoption of sustainable practices. Furthermore, promoting collaboration between the public and private sectors is crucial to stimulate investment in renewable energy infrastructure. Moreover, these policies must be designed for specific national circumstances. High-income or upper-middle-income countries can deploy capital-intensive agrivoltaic and biogas technologies via concessional finance. In contrast, low-income settings should prioritize low-cost, decentralized solar pumps and off-grid dryers to build farmer confidence and trust. Countries with stronger regulatory frameworks and secure land tenure systems are better equipped to support large-scale renewable energy projects. At the same time, regions with weaker governance tend to benefit most from community-owned mini-grids. The mapping of policy options onto economic, institutional, and agro-ecological dimensions provides a nuanced, context-sensitive framework to guide equitable and effective energy transitions in diverse agricultural landscapes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100222"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145519421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate change significantly impacts the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus because the WEF nexus's components naturally fluctuate due to dynamic changes in climate variables. The present study analysed the impact of climate change on water availability, thermal energy output, and rice yield in the Kangsabati River basin using CMIP6 data, and the basin's WEF nexus using a newly developed WEF Nexus model. The WEF nexus model has been developed using the Modified Pardee Rand indicator–based approach, which primarily uses secondary data for the analysis, except climatic data like rainfall and evapotranspiration. We initially analysed the WEF nexus for 2011 and 2021, and then based on the decadal change, we projected different inputs of the WEF nexus model except for climate data, rice yield and thermal energy production (examined from EC-Earth3 GCM, AquaCrop and scenario-based empirical energy model, respectively). We used the WEF nexus model to forecast the WEF nexus for 2031 to 2091, at a decadal time step, under SSP245 and SSP585. Results indicate that the annual average precipitation in the near-future will likely be higher in SSP245 than in SSP585. Under SSP245 and SS585, the basin's actual evapotranspiration will increase by 3.70–8.20 %, while thermal energy production will decline by 0.21–2.42 %. Furthermore, SSP245 forecasts a 10–15 % drop in paddy output during Kharif (June–September) and 15–20 % during Rabi (October–December), while SSP585 forecasts a higher decline of 15–20 % and 20–25 %. The study also reveals that the Water, Energy and Food Sub-indices, and WEF Nexus Index of the basin will decline by 42.33 %, 1.67 %, 7.67 % and 19.33 %, respectively, under SSP245, and 25.67 %, 4.67 %, 8.67 % and 11.33 %, respectively, under SSP585 in 2091 compared to 2021. This study provides recommendations to achieve SDGs 2, 6, and 7 targets by mitigating the impact of climate change on WEF security.
{"title":"Assessing climate change impacts on the WEF nexus: A case study of water availability, thermal energy production, and rice yield in the Kangsabati river basin","authors":"Krishna Mondal , Vishal Gupta , Chandranath Chatterjee , Rajendra Singh","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100221","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100221","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change significantly impacts the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus because the WEF nexus's components naturally fluctuate due to dynamic changes in climate variables. The present study analysed the impact of climate change on water availability, thermal energy output, and rice yield in the Kangsabati River basin using CMIP6 data, and the basin's WEF nexus using a newly developed WEF Nexus model. The WEF nexus model has been developed using the Modified Pardee Rand indicator–based approach, which primarily uses secondary data for the analysis, except climatic data like rainfall and evapotranspiration. We initially analysed the WEF nexus for 2011 and 2021, and then based on the decadal change, we projected different inputs of the WEF nexus model except for climate data, rice yield and thermal energy production (examined from EC-Earth3 GCM, AquaCrop and scenario-based empirical energy model, respectively). We used the WEF nexus model to forecast the WEF nexus for 2031 to 2091, at a decadal time step, under SSP245 and SSP585. Results indicate that the annual average precipitation in the near-future will likely be higher in SSP245 than in SSP585. Under SSP245 and SS585, the basin's actual evapotranspiration will increase by 3.70–8.20 %, while thermal energy production will decline by 0.21–2.42 %. Furthermore, SSP245 forecasts a 10–15 % drop in paddy output during Kharif (June–September) and 15–20 % during Rabi (October–December), while SSP585 forecasts a higher decline of 15–20 % and 20–25 %. The study also reveals that the Water, Energy and Food Sub-indices, and WEF Nexus Index of the basin will decline by 42.33 %, 1.67 %, 7.67 % and 19.33 %, respectively, under SSP245, and 25.67 %, 4.67 %, 8.67 % and 11.33 %, respectively, under SSP585 in 2091 compared to 2021. This study provides recommendations to achieve SDGs 2, 6, and 7 targets by mitigating the impact of climate change on WEF security.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100221"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145519422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-30DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100220
Duttatreya Das
The petrochemical sector is a cornerstone of modern industry, producing essential chemicals that form the basis of everyday products such as plastics, pharmaceuticals, and solvents. However, its reliance on energy-intensive processes and carbon-intensive feedstocks makes it a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. Decarbonizing this sector is critical for achieving global climate goals and fulfilling national and corporate carbon neutrality commitments. This paper evaluates technology options for reducing emissions from petrochemical production in India, focusing on the CO₂ abatement potential of various solutions through a marginal abatement cost framework. The analysis identifies blue hydrogen substitution in steam cracking furnaces as the most economically viable deep decarbonization option for the petrochemical sector, both in the short and long term, even under sensitivity scenarios involving cost reductions of competing technologies. An integrated pathway combining energy efficiency measures with blue hydrogen can achieve emissions reductions of up to 88 %, with only a minimal increase in the cost of production. While green hydrogen and large-scale process electrification are frequently cited as key long-term solutions in policy papers, this study highlights the significant techno-economic barriers that constrain their applicability within the petrochemical sector. The study also examines near-term measures such as energy efficiency improvements and demand-side interventions like plastic recycling. The paper also reviews India’s existing policy landscape for various abatement technologies important for petrochemical decarbonization, identifying key gaps in policy design and scope for action in a structured manner.
{"title":"Towards net-zero petrochemicals: Assessment of technology options and policy for decarbonizing steam cracking in India","authors":"Duttatreya Das","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100220","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100220","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The petrochemical sector is a cornerstone of modern industry, producing essential chemicals that form the basis of everyday products such as plastics, pharmaceuticals, and solvents. However, its reliance on energy-intensive processes and carbon-intensive feedstocks makes it a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. Decarbonizing this sector is critical for achieving global climate goals and fulfilling national and corporate carbon neutrality commitments. This paper evaluates technology options for reducing emissions from petrochemical production in India, focusing on the CO₂ abatement potential of various solutions through a marginal abatement cost framework. The analysis identifies blue hydrogen substitution in steam cracking furnaces as the most economically viable deep decarbonization option for the petrochemical sector, both in the short and long term, even under sensitivity scenarios involving cost reductions of competing technologies. An integrated pathway combining energy efficiency measures with blue hydrogen can achieve emissions reductions of up to 88 %, with only a minimal increase in the cost of production. While green hydrogen and large-scale process electrification are frequently cited as key long-term solutions in policy papers, this study highlights the significant techno-economic barriers that constrain their applicability within the petrochemical sector. The study also examines near-term measures such as energy efficiency improvements and demand-side interventions like plastic recycling. The paper also reviews India’s existing policy landscape for various abatement technologies important for petrochemical decarbonization, identifying key gaps in policy design and scope for action in a structured manner.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100220"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145465323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-14DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100219
Arnab Mondal , Ritu Jangirh , Tuhin Kumar Mandal
India's commitment to net-zero target of 2070 is significantly hindered by its constant reliance on traditional fuels along with cleaner alternatives like liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), especially in rural households where cooking and heating needs are met through these sources. The widespread adoption of clean cooking fuels is crucial for meeting net-zero commitments. A detailed survey conducted in the rural areas of six districts in Haryana, revealed that 62 % of households still depend on traditional fuels, including firewood, dung cakes, and crop residues. Utilising binary and multinomial logistic regression models, this study identified key socio-economic determinants influencing the adoption of clean fuels, such as agricultural land ownership, aesthetic preferences, and the availability of dedicated kitchen spaces. Economic constraints emerged as the primary factors driving fuel stacking behaviours, where households resort to using both traditional and clean fuels. The findings highlight the intricate relationship between energy consumption patterns and economic conditions in India, emphasizing the need for a holistic strategy to facilitate the shift towards sustainable energy solutions. Furthermore, the study quantifies the total consumption of traditional fuels and assesses the associated emissions of household air pollutants (HAP) using established emission factors. Notably, Delhi, positioned downwind of Haryana, stands to benefit significantly from the elimination of traditional fuels, as this transition would alleviate the pollution burden associated with such practices.
{"title":"Fuelling the future: A case-study on traditional cooking fuels and clean energy adoption in rural north-Indian households","authors":"Arnab Mondal , Ritu Jangirh , Tuhin Kumar Mandal","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100219","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100219","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>India's commitment to net-zero target of 2070 is significantly hindered by its constant reliance on traditional fuels along with cleaner alternatives like liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), especially in rural households where cooking and heating needs are met through these sources. The widespread adoption of clean cooking fuels is crucial for meeting net-zero commitments. A detailed survey conducted in the rural areas of six districts in Haryana, revealed that 62 % of households still depend on traditional fuels, including firewood, dung cakes, and crop residues. Utilising binary and multinomial logistic regression models, this study identified key socio-economic determinants influencing the adoption of clean fuels, such as agricultural land ownership, aesthetic preferences, and the availability of dedicated kitchen spaces. Economic constraints emerged as the primary factors driving fuel stacking behaviours, where households resort to using both traditional and clean fuels. The findings highlight the intricate relationship between energy consumption patterns and economic conditions in India, emphasizing the need for a holistic strategy to facilitate the shift towards sustainable energy solutions. Furthermore, the study quantifies the total consumption of traditional fuels and assesses the associated emissions of household air pollutants (HAP) using established emission factors. Notably, Delhi, positioned downwind of Haryana, stands to benefit significantly from the elimination of traditional fuels, as this transition would alleviate the pollution burden associated with such practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100219"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145361994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}