Energy and climate change最新文献

Power companies need to adapt their generation expansion planning in response to changing market, climate and regulatory conditions as global warming, electrification, and technology breakthroughs continue. To fortify energy system resilience, it is critical to understand the collective effects of their autonomous decisions on power systems operations and reliability. To this end, we developed an integrated framework, an agent-based model (ABM) coupled with a power dispatch model (PDM) (referred to as ABM-PDM), tested on the Texas 123-bus transmission system in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region. Agents (power generation companies) can invest in natural gas, solar, and wind technologies to maximize profits from 2021 to 2050, using market information from the PDM based on their capital budget and perceived costs, financial incentives for renewable energy, and climate risks. We applied ABM-PDM to assess how power companies respond to future technological advancements and climate change. After demonstrating model credibility, we explored 25 combinations of cost and capacity factors reflecting a variety of technological evolution trajectories. Results indicated that to replace wind over solar for replacing existing fossil-fuel power plants due to lower costs and higher capacity factors. Additionally, as more agents invest, the energy market becomes more competitive, and system-wide electricity prices drop. We also analyzed the impacts of temperature increases on investments using seven projections, from 0 to 6 °C, during the modeling period. The results showed that as temperatures rise, agents invest more to accommodate the increasing loads. ABM-PDM incorporates risk attitude and learning into companies’ decision-making, providing additional information on generation expansion for the non-optimal future of power systems.

The United States has pledged to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. We examine a series of net-zero CO₂ scenarios to investigate the impact of advanced electrification of end-use sectors on the dynamics of America's net-zero transition through 2050. Specifically, we use an integrated assessment model, GCAM-USA, to explore how advanced electrification can influence the evolution of the electricity system in pursuit of net-zero. State-level resolution for end-use demand sectors and energy transformation is a key feature of GCAM-USA that allows for elucidation of the variation in end-use electrification across states. All scenarios in this study are designed to be consistent with the modeling protocol for the Energy Modeling Forum Study 37 model inter-comparison project. Our scenarios show the scale of transformation in the power sector with average annual capacity additions reaching 121-143 GW/year and 172-190 GW/year in 2050 net-zero CO₂ scenarios and 2045 net-zero CO₂ scenarios, respectively, in the 2040s — approximately three to five times the 2021-2023 average. In 2050 net-zero CO₂ scenarios, electrification rates in 2050 range from 15-48 % for transportation, 65-83 % for buildings, and 20-38 % for industry. If net-zero CO₂ is achieved in 2045, transportation, buildings, and industry are 27-53 %, 78-84 %, and 41-53 % electrified by 2050, respectively. Advanced electrification of end-use sectors can reduce the magnitude of reliance on negative emissions by driving down residual positive emissions by mid-century. Altogether, our results demonstrate that a net-zero transition in the United States will require deep and rapid structural changes to the energy system.

The U.S. steel sector is a hard-to-abate sector because of its heavy dependence on fossil fuels and its high capital requirements. In 2015, the sector was one of the major carbon emitters, contributing 10 % of the U.S. industrial CO₂ emissions. The ability to decarbonize the U.S. iron and steel sector directly affects the ability of the U.S. to achieve economy-wide net zero CO₂ by 2050. In this paper, we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to analyze different U.S. steel sector decarbonization pathways under varying technology, policy, and demand futures. These pathways provide insights on how various low-carbon steelmaking technologies such as those using carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen, or scrap could help reduce U.S. steel emissions by mid-century. In our primary decarbonization pathway, we find that nearly all of the conventional fossil-based steelmaking capacity is fully integrated with CCS by 2050. However, without CCS availability, almost all of the conventional fossil-based steelmaking is phased-out by 2050 and is replaced by hydrogen-based production. Scrap-based production continues to remain vital across both of these decarbonization pathways. Furthermore, we find that demand reduction could help reduce the required levels of CCS and hydrogen-based production in the decarbonization pathways. Implementation of advanced energy efficiency measures could help substantially reduce the sector's energy usage. Finally, we observe that addressing the embodied carbon transfer associated with steel imports will be crucial for fully decarbonizing the U.S. steel sector.

The food processing sector is a large, energy-consuming and CO_2-emitting industrial sector. The sector was estimated to account for 6 % of US industrial CO₂ emissions in 2020. The sector uses significant amounts of fossil fuels, biomass, and electricity to perform a range of operations such as baking, drying, and refrigeration. Additionally, the sector is tightly linked to the agriculture and land use sectors. In this analysis, we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), a coupled, energy-economy-agriculture-land-use-water-climate systems model, to examine the role of the food processing sector in the EMF37 2050 US net-zero CO₂ scenario. We explore the implications for technology and fuel choice and go beyond to examine US food consumption, food prices, and land-use change. To better understand the sensitivity of our results to alternative developments, we assess multiple sensitivity scenarios for the US and other world regions, with a focus on varied food processing energy intensity pathways.

We find that along the EMF37 US net-zero path, the food processing sector electrifies the majority of its process heat. We also find that the industry phases-down natural gas use and completely phases-out coal. Additionally, we observe a marginal decrease in US food consumption per capita relative to our reference scenario. This primarily occurs due to the increase in consumer food prices resulting from increased demand for purpose-grown biomass crops, which compete with food crops for land resources. Finally, cumulative energy savings of 4.2 EJ are achieved from 2020 to 2050 in a scenario in which the US reduces its food processing intensity to EU-15 levels.

The Government of India has indicated that hydrogen as an energy carrier will be a key part of its decarbonization solutions. Greater policy focus has been noticed on green hydrogen produced from electrolysis using renewable-powered electricity. That said, some other missions, such as the National Coal Gasification Mission, could directly tie into blue hydrogen production (from fossil fuels with CO₂ storage). In this paper, we suggest two major policy initiatives for effective deployment of blue hydrogen. These include a comprehensive measurement programme for fugitive emissions and a level-playing field to ensure parity among sources. Moreover, we also provide insights as to why coalbed methane and underground coal gasification could provide somewhat overlooked feedstock of blue hydrogen. In doing so, the paper outlines the current state-of-the-art on blue hydrogen production in India, and recommendations for its scale-up.

A stable mitigation policy requires an adequate legal framework for climate change. The energy sector contributes to about 80 % of total GHGs. The use of renewable energies is a solution to GHG reduction. A carbon tax has been acknowledged as one of the best mitigation policies as it tends to shift the tax burden to polluters and yields revenue, which relieves households.

This study focused on developing Tanzania's national climate change framework by taxing energy sources to enhance the use of renewable energies as the mitigation policy. The study draw extensively on interviews and documentary data sources that reviewed international instruments, regional instruments, legislations, the Constitution of the United Republic of Tanzania, the National Energy Policy of 2015, the National Environmental Policy of 2021, Tax Statutes and the Tanzania Development Vision of 2025.

The study revealed that, first, there are supplies not been carbon taxed irrespective of their qualification. Second, there are chapters within policies and sections within laws that hinder access to renewable energies. Third, there is no guiding framework that coordinates approaches across sectors and levels of government.

The study concludes that from 2023, 9.7 % were using renewable energies and by 2033 getting to 80 % usage, requires investment leading to redressed policies and laws aligning to the introduced national climate change framework towards renewable energy access for carbon reduction.

Canada and the United States (US) have both committed to reaching net zero emissions by 2050 but neither have implemented policy sufficient to reach this target. Knowledge of the technical steps to deep decarbonization is needed alongside an understanding of how each country might be similarly and uniquely impacted by a transition to net zero emissions, contingent on specific technology advancements or policy decisions. We use the computable general equilibrium model, gTech, to simulate sixteen net zero scenarios for Canada and the US varying by technology and policy assumptions as part of the energy modelling forum 37 (EMF37) study. We find that both economies similarly continue to grow in all scenarios out to 2050 with the rate of growth largely determined by assumptions on negative emissions technology. Sectoral impacts differ between countries as a result of current emissions and GDP profiles in combination with assumed net zero scenario policy and technology advancements. In the US, we find that efficient use of electricity is a slightly more important predictor of economic outcomes, while Canada's economy is marginally more responsive to cost and performance improvements in carbon capture technologies.

Based on a large-scale public survey, we identify and quantify the significance of key factors associated with the deployment of electric vehicles and charging infrastructure. Our results indicate that individual characteristics, such as income, age, region, and single vs. multi-family housing type can significantly affect electric vehicle purchase preferences, especially those concerning overnight charging and perceptions of benefits and barriers. Moreover, our results challenge earlier findings in the literature by showing how certain elements, such as expected electric driving range, certain travel behaviors (e.g., driving distance, destination types), the most common perceived benefits (e.g., cleaner air) or barriers (e.g., reliability concerns), and preferred location for public charging seem to not vary much or at all with the socioeconomic, demographic, and geographical variables examined in this study. We conclude with the implications for policies to advance equitable vehicle electrification. Our findings underscore the importance of lower-cost models of electric vehicles, home and public charging access, charging infrastructure planning, more integrated analysis of interlinked housing and transportation needs and solutions, the availability of alternative transportation modes, and the potential role of gas stations for electric vehicles. We encourage others to build on these results and have shared our complete survey instrument as an added contribution.

As industries rally toward achieving net zero emissions, hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels are emerging as key players in decarbonization efforts. Although the primary technology for producing renewable natural gas has been well implemented in the wastewater industry, the “decarbonization based goal setting” is trailing. This perspective assimilates existing literature presented in other contexts to highlight the need for framing the decarbonization dialog by using green hydrogen as a potential pathway for the wastewater industry. Specifically, we note the importance of (a) developing the decarbonization or net zero focus in the wastewater industry, and (b) colocating the wastewater industry with hydrogen production facilities. We also delve into technological, cost, and operational considerations to understand the readiness level of key stakeholders to identify future research and development opportunities for the wastewater hydrogen nexus.

Europe and North America account for 32 % of current carbon emissions. Due to distinct legacy systems, energy infrastructure, socioeconomic development, and energy resource endowment, both regions have different policy and technological pathways to reach net zero by the mid-century. Against this background, our paper examines the results from the net zero emission scenarios for Europe and North America that emerged from the collaboration of the European and American Energy Modeling Forums. In our analysis, we perform an inter-comparison of various integrated assessments and bottom-up energy system models. A clear qualitative consensus emerges on five main points. First, Europe and the United States reach net zero targets with electrification, demand-side reductions, and carbon capture and sequestration technologies. Second, the use of carbon capture and sequestration is more predominant in the United States due to a steeper decarbonization schedule. Third, the buildings sector is the easiest to electrify in both regions. Fourth, the industrial sector is the hardest to electrify in the United States and transportation in Europe.

Fifth, in both regions, the transition in the energy mix is driven by the substitution of coal and natural gas with solar and wind, but to a different extent.