Energy and climate change最新文献

The Carbon Management Study Group of the 37^th Energy Modeling Forum (EMF 37) designed seven scenarios to explore the role of three potentially key technology suites – point source carbon dioxide capture and storage (PSCCS), direct air capture of carbon dioxide (DACCS), and hydrogen systems (H₂) – in shaping the broader technology pathways to reaching net-zero carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in United States by 2050. Each scenario was run by up to 13 models participating in the EMF 37 study. Results show that carbon dioxide removal technologies were consistently a major part of successful pathways to net-zero U.S. CO₂ emissions in 2050. Achieving this net-zero CO₂ goal without any form of carbon dioxide capture and storage was found to be impossible for most models; some models also found it impossible to reach net-zero without DACCS. The marginal cost of achieving net-zero CO₂ emissions in 2050 was between two and 10 times higher without PSCCS and/or DACCS available. The carbon price at which DACCS was deployed as a backstop technology depended upon the assumed cost at which DACCS was available at scale. Carbon prices were between $250 and $500 per ton CO₂ when DACCS deployed as a backstop. The average CO₂ capture rate across all models in 2050 in the central net-zero scenario was 1.3 GtCO₂/year, which implies a substantial upscaling of capacity to move and store CO₂. Hydrogen sensitivity scenarios showed that H₂ typically constituted a relatively small share of the overall U.S. energy system; however, H₂ deployed in applications that are considered hard to decarbonize, facilitating transition towards net-zero emissions.

The use of high-carbon energy (HCE) causes adverse effects on the environment and sustainable food production. Yet, low-carbon energy (LCE) use among women farmers is missing in the literature. Therefore, this study investigates the operationalization of LCE use for sustainable agricultural production among smallholder women farmers in Nigeria. Data collected from randomly selected 350 women farmers were analysed using descriptive statistics, t-tests, and an economics cost model. The results revealed that the women farmers were aware of LCE and used LCE for drying farm output, lighting and heating pens. The average cost of ownership and installation of LCE (solar power systems) by women farmers was N500,000 (USD 510.20) while the cost of ownership/installation of generators was N210,000 (USD 214.29). In the first period, the cost of installing the solar system was higher than that of installing fossil generators by the HCE users. The economic cost model showed that the LCE remained at N500,000 (USD 510.20) while HCE was put at N1,250,000 (USD 1,275.51) in the fifth year. The output of the LCE user (7,108.47 kg) was significantly higher than the users of HCE (4,446.84 kg). In the same vein, users of LCE had a higher income of N1,246,536 (USD 1,271.98) than the users of HCE with an average income of N941,232 (USD 960.44). Thus, the use of LCE is not only for a sustainable environment but also for sustainable production and income. Therefore, this study calls for the promotion of the use of LCE to have a sustainable and productive farming enterprise.

Global concerns about climate change and its effects and the quest for sustainable development have necessitated policy actions, including energy interventions. Besides the intended goal of energy transition, these interventions often have unintended impacts, which ought to be measured when assessing the overall effects of these energy interventions. This study investigated the impact of a clean cooking fuel transition program in Ghana on financial inclusion. It used a cross-sectional survey of over 900 households in two districts in Ghana where a clean energy transition intervention had been implemented. The study employed linear probability and matching techniques and found that clean energy interventions can promote financial inclusion among beneficiary households. The probability of being significantly associated with financial inclusion is at least 6.6% higher for treated households than it is for households that did not benefit from the program. The findings are robust across different outcome variables and the potential transmission mechanisms are discussed. The study provides evidence for policymakers to count the effect of financial inclusion in measuring the program's overall impact. Furthermore, the findings underscore the need for policies that provide the needed infrastructure and financial ‘ecosystem’ to support financial inclusion, particularly in rural areas where the energy interventions are implemented.

Ten Latin American and Caribbean countries have pledged to achieve carbon neutrality since 2019. We assess whether electricity planning in the region has evolved towards reaching this goal. We compare power generation capacity in 2023 with announced plans in 2019. We then estimate committed emissions from existing and planned power plants – emissions that would result from the normal operation of these plants during their typical lifetime – and compare them to emissions from power generation in published IPCC scenarios. We find that fossil fuel planned capacity has decreased by 47 % since 2019, compared to an increase of 24 % of planned renewable power plants. Countries with net-zero pledges tended to cancel more fossil fuel power capacity. But existing plants in the region will emit 6.7 GtCO₂ during their lifespan, and if all planned fossil fuel plants are built, they will add 4.9 GtCO₂. The total 11.6 GtCO₂ emissions exceeds median carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2 °C-consistent IPCC pathways (2.3 and 4.3 GtCO₂). Natural gas power plants are the largest contributor to existing (62 %) and planned (75 %) emissions. We evaluate emissions reduction strategies to achieve carbon budgets. Assuming no new coal plants come into operation, announced gas and oil projects are canceled at the same rate as in the past four years, all fossil fueled plant lifetimes are reduced by 10 years, and all new natural gas displaces existing coal, committed emissions fall by 67 %, meeting the median 2 °C budget, but still falling short of the median 1.5 °C budget. While progress is being made, energy planning in the region is not yet consistent with global climate goals as reflected by IPCC scenarios.

Power companies need to adapt their generation expansion planning in response to changing market, climate and regulatory conditions as global warming, electrification, and technology breakthroughs continue. To fortify energy system resilience, it is critical to understand the collective effects of their autonomous decisions on power systems operations and reliability. To this end, we developed an integrated framework, an agent-based model (ABM) coupled with a power dispatch model (PDM) (referred to as ABM-PDM), tested on the Texas 123-bus transmission system in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region. Agents (power generation companies) can invest in natural gas, solar, and wind technologies to maximize profits from 2021 to 2050, using market information from the PDM based on their capital budget and perceived costs, financial incentives for renewable energy, and climate risks. We applied ABM-PDM to assess how power companies respond to future technological advancements and climate change. After demonstrating model credibility, we explored 25 combinations of cost and capacity factors reflecting a variety of technological evolution trajectories. Results indicated that to replace wind over solar for replacing existing fossil-fuel power plants due to lower costs and higher capacity factors. Additionally, as more agents invest, the energy market becomes more competitive, and system-wide electricity prices drop. We also analyzed the impacts of temperature increases on investments using seven projections, from 0 to 6 °C, during the modeling period. The results showed that as temperatures rise, agents invest more to accommodate the increasing loads. ABM-PDM incorporates risk attitude and learning into companies’ decision-making, providing additional information on generation expansion for the non-optimal future of power systems.

The United States has pledged to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. We examine a series of net-zero CO₂ scenarios to investigate the impact of advanced electrification of end-use sectors on the dynamics of America's net-zero transition through 2050. Specifically, we use an integrated assessment model, GCAM-USA, to explore how advanced electrification can influence the evolution of the electricity system in pursuit of net-zero. State-level resolution for end-use demand sectors and energy transformation is a key feature of GCAM-USA that allows for elucidation of the variation in end-use electrification across states. All scenarios in this study are designed to be consistent with the modeling protocol for the Energy Modeling Forum Study 37 model inter-comparison project. Our scenarios show the scale of transformation in the power sector with average annual capacity additions reaching 121-143 GW/year and 172-190 GW/year in 2050 net-zero CO₂ scenarios and 2045 net-zero CO₂ scenarios, respectively, in the 2040s — approximately three to five times the 2021-2023 average. In 2050 net-zero CO₂ scenarios, electrification rates in 2050 range from 15-48 % for transportation, 65-83 % for buildings, and 20-38 % for industry. If net-zero CO₂ is achieved in 2045, transportation, buildings, and industry are 27-53 %, 78-84 %, and 41-53 % electrified by 2050, respectively. Advanced electrification of end-use sectors can reduce the magnitude of reliance on negative emissions by driving down residual positive emissions by mid-century. Altogether, our results demonstrate that a net-zero transition in the United States will require deep and rapid structural changes to the energy system.

The U.S. steel sector is a hard-to-abate sector because of its heavy dependence on fossil fuels and its high capital requirements. In 2015, the sector was one of the major carbon emitters, contributing 10 % of the U.S. industrial CO₂ emissions. The ability to decarbonize the U.S. iron and steel sector directly affects the ability of the U.S. to achieve economy-wide net zero CO₂ by 2050. In this paper, we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to analyze different U.S. steel sector decarbonization pathways under varying technology, policy, and demand futures. These pathways provide insights on how various low-carbon steelmaking technologies such as those using carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen, or scrap could help reduce U.S. steel emissions by mid-century. In our primary decarbonization pathway, we find that nearly all of the conventional fossil-based steelmaking capacity is fully integrated with CCS by 2050. However, without CCS availability, almost all of the conventional fossil-based steelmaking is phased-out by 2050 and is replaced by hydrogen-based production. Scrap-based production continues to remain vital across both of these decarbonization pathways. Furthermore, we find that demand reduction could help reduce the required levels of CCS and hydrogen-based production in the decarbonization pathways. Implementation of advanced energy efficiency measures could help substantially reduce the sector's energy usage. Finally, we observe that addressing the embodied carbon transfer associated with steel imports will be crucial for fully decarbonizing the U.S. steel sector.

The food processing sector is a large, energy-consuming and CO_2-emitting industrial sector. The sector was estimated to account for 6 % of US industrial CO₂ emissions in 2020. The sector uses significant amounts of fossil fuels, biomass, and electricity to perform a range of operations such as baking, drying, and refrigeration. Additionally, the sector is tightly linked to the agriculture and land use sectors. In this analysis, we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), a coupled, energy-economy-agriculture-land-use-water-climate systems model, to examine the role of the food processing sector in the EMF37 2050 US net-zero CO₂ scenario. We explore the implications for technology and fuel choice and go beyond to examine US food consumption, food prices, and land-use change. To better understand the sensitivity of our results to alternative developments, we assess multiple sensitivity scenarios for the US and other world regions, with a focus on varied food processing energy intensity pathways.

We find that along the EMF37 US net-zero path, the food processing sector electrifies the majority of its process heat. We also find that the industry phases-down natural gas use and completely phases-out coal. Additionally, we observe a marginal decrease in US food consumption per capita relative to our reference scenario. This primarily occurs due to the increase in consumer food prices resulting from increased demand for purpose-grown biomass crops, which compete with food crops for land resources. Finally, cumulative energy savings of 4.2 EJ are achieved from 2020 to 2050 in a scenario in which the US reduces its food processing intensity to EU-15 levels.

The Government of India has indicated that hydrogen as an energy carrier will be a key part of its decarbonization solutions. Greater policy focus has been noticed on green hydrogen produced from electrolysis using renewable-powered electricity. That said, some other missions, such as the National Coal Gasification Mission, could directly tie into blue hydrogen production (from fossil fuels with CO₂ storage). In this paper, we suggest two major policy initiatives for effective deployment of blue hydrogen. These include a comprehensive measurement programme for fugitive emissions and a level-playing field to ensure parity among sources. Moreover, we also provide insights as to why coalbed methane and underground coal gasification could provide somewhat overlooked feedstock of blue hydrogen. In doing so, the paper outlines the current state-of-the-art on blue hydrogen production in India, and recommendations for its scale-up.