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Microbiological Characteristics and Antibiotic Sensitivity in Patients with Nosocomial Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis Caused by Escherichia coli: A Multicenter Study. 大肠杆菌引起的院内自发性细菌性腹膜炎的微生物学特征和抗生素敏感性:一项多中心研究
Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2020-08-07 eCollection Date: 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.1097/IM9.0000000000000035
Bo Tu, Yuening Zhang, Jingfeng Bi, Zhe Xu, Lei Shi, Xin Zhang, Peng Zhao, Dawei Zhang, Guang Yang, Enqiang Qin

Escherichia coli is a prevalent causative pathogen of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP). In this retrospective study, we investigated the microbiological characteristics and antibiotic susceptibility of E. coli clinical isolates obtained from liver cirrhosis patients suffering from nosocomial SBP. Our results showed that extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-producing E. coli accounted for 47% of the cases, while 62% of the isolates were multi-drug resistant (MDR) pathogens. ESBL-producing and MDR isolates showed high incidences of resistance to third-generation cephalosporins, but they displayed susceptibility to carbapenems, β-lactamase inhibitors, and aminoglycosides. Importantly, liver cirrhosis patients with MDR E. coli SBP showed a significantly higher death rate than patients with non-MDR infections (P = 0.021). The 30-day mortality of nosocomial SBP was independently correlated with female gender [odds ratio (OR) = 5.200, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.194-22.642], liver failure (OR = 9.609, 95% CI = 1.914-48.225), hepatocellular carcinoma (OR = 8.176, 95% CI = 2.065-32.364), hepatic encephalopathy (OR = 8.176, 95% CI = 2.065-32.364), model of end-stage liver disease score (OR = 1.191, 95% CI = 1.053-1.346), white blood cell count (OR = 0.847, 95% CI = 0.737-0.973), and ascites polymorphonuclear (OR = 95.903, 95% CI = 3.410-2697.356). In conclusion, third-generation cephalosporins may be inappropriate for empiric treatment of nosocomial SBP caused by E. coli, due to the widespread presence of ESBLs and high incidence of MDR pathogens.

摘要大肠杆菌是自发性细菌性腹膜炎(SBP)的常见致病菌。在这项回顾性研究中,我们研究了从肝硬化院内性收缩压患者中获得的大肠杆菌临床分离株的微生物学特征和抗生素敏感性。结果显示,产广谱β-内酰胺酶(ESBL)的大肠杆菌占47%,而62%的分离株为耐多药(MDR)病原体。产esbl和MDR分离株对第三代头孢菌素耐药发生率高,但对碳青霉烯类、β-内酰胺酶抑制剂和氨基糖苷类敏感。重要的是,MDR型大肠杆菌SBP肝硬化患者的死亡率明显高于非MDR型感染患者(P = 0.021)。院内SBP的30天死亡率是独立与女性性别(比值比(或)= 5.200,95%可信区间(CI) = 1.194 - -22.642),肝功能衰竭(或= 9.609,95% CI -48.225 = 1.914),肝细胞癌(或= 8.176,95% CI -32.364 = 2.065),肝性脑病(或= 8.176,95% CI -32.364 = 2.065),终末期肝病评分模型(或= 1.191,95% CI -1.346 = 1.053),白细胞计数(或= 0.847,95% CI = 0.737 - -0.973),腹水多形核(OR = 95.903, 95% CI = 3.410 ~ 2697.356)。综上所述,由于ESBLs的广泛存在和耐多药病原菌的高发,第三代头孢菌素可能不适合经验性治疗大肠杆菌引起的医院性收缩压。
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引用次数: 0
Will the Overuse of Antibiotics During the Coronavirus Pandemic Accelerate Antimicrobial Resistance of Bacteria? 冠状病毒大流行期间抗生素的过度使用会加速细菌的抗菌素耐药性吗?
Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2020-07-21 eCollection Date: 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1097/IM9.0000000000000034
Prasanth Manohar, Belinda Loh, Sebastian Leptihn
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引用次数: 0
Potential Therapeutic Options for COVID-19. COVID-19的潜在治疗方案
IF 2 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2020-07-16 eCollection Date: 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1097/IM9.0000000000000033
Xiaoqin Zheng, Lanjuan Li

The recently emerged coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has rapidly evolved into a pandemic with over 10 million infections and over 500 thousand deaths. There are currently no effective therapies or vaccines available to protect against this coronavirus infection. In this review, we discuss potential therapeutic options for COVID-19 based on the available information from previous research on severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Substantial efforts are underway to discover new therapeutic agents for COVID-19, including the repurposing of existing agents and the development of novel agents that specifically target SARS-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) or host factors. Through the screening of compound libraries, various classes of drugs, such as ribavirin, remdesivir, lopinavir/ritonavir, and hydroxychloroquine have been identified as potential therapeutic candidates against COVID-19. Novel antiviral drugs for SARS-coronavirus 2 are being developed to target viral enzymes or functional proteins, as well as host factors or cell signaling pathways.

最近出现的冠状病毒病2019 (COVID-19)已迅速演变为一场大流行,感染人数超过1000万,死亡人数超过50万。目前还没有有效的治疗方法或疫苗来预防这种冠状病毒感染。在这篇综述中,我们根据以往关于严重急性呼吸综合征(SARS)和中东呼吸综合征(MERS)的研究信息,讨论了COVID-19的潜在治疗方案。人们正在努力发现新的COVID-19治疗剂,包括重新利用现有药物和开发专门针对sars -冠状病毒2 (SARS-CoV-2)或宿主因子的新药。通过对化合物文库的筛选,确定了利巴韦林、瑞德西韦、洛匹那韦/利托那韦和羟氯喹等不同类别的药物是抗COVID-19的潜在候选药物。针对sars -冠状病毒2的新型抗病毒药物正在开发中,其目标是病毒酶或功能蛋白,以及宿主因子或细胞信号通路。
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引用次数: 0
Molecular Mechanisms of Gut Microbiota-Associated Colorectal Carcinogenesis 肠道微生物群与结直肠癌发生的分子机制
Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2020-06-24 DOI: 10.1097/IM9.0000000000000030
Yichang Shao, Xun Zeng
Abstract Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the cancer occurring in colon and rectum, and is the fourth leading cause of tumor-associated deaths worldwide. As a multi-etiological cancer, CRC could be induced by genetic and environmental factors, including unhealthy diet, irregular lifestyle, inappropriate inflammatory, and the dysbiosis of gut microbiota. Since immunotherapy has been the most popular cancer therapy nowadays, the relationships among gut microbiota, host immune cells and CRC pathogenesis are widely investigated. Scientists constantly tried to figure out the underlying mechanisms involved to support the further therapeutic studies. In this review, we discuss the component shifts of gut microbiota in CRC patients compared with healthy people, summarize how immune cells participate in protecting host from pathogenic microbes, elaborate the molecular mechanisms involved in gut microbiota-associated carcinogenesis of colonic epithelial cells and look into how gut microbiota influence the CRC therapy.
摘要癌症(CRC)是发生在结肠和直肠的癌症,是全球第四大肿瘤相关死亡原因。CRC作为一种多病因癌症,可能由遗传和环境因素诱导,包括不健康的饮食、不规律的生活方式、不适当的炎症和肠道微生物群的微生态失调。由于免疫疗法是目前最流行的癌症治疗方法,肠道微生物群、宿主免疫细胞和CRC发病机制之间的关系被广泛研究。科学家们不断试图找出相关的潜在机制,以支持进一步的治疗研究。在这篇综述中,我们讨论了CRC患者与健康人相比肠道微生物群的成分变化,总结了免疫细胞如何参与保护宿主免受病原微生物的侵害,阐述了肠道微生物群相关结肠上皮细胞癌变的分子机制,并探讨了肠道微生物组如何影响CRC治疗。
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引用次数: 1
Transcriptomics Curation of SARS-CoV-2 Related Host Genes in Mice With COVID-19 Comorbidity: A Pilot Study. COVID-19合并症小鼠中SARS-CoV-2相关宿主基因的转录组学调控:一项初步研究
Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2020-05-06 eCollection Date: 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.1097/IM9.0000000000000025
Kunkai Su, Xin Huang, Kaijin Xu, Weibo Du, Danhua Zhu, Meifang Yang, Wenji Yuan, Lanjuan Li

The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a respiratory disease caused by a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2, is causing substantial morbidity and mortality. Along with the respiratory symptoms, underlying diseases in senior patients, such as diabetes, hypertension, and coronary heart disease, are the most common comorbidities, which cause more severe outcomes and even death. During cellular attachment and entry of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2, the key protein involved is the angiotensin I converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), which is located on the membrane of host cells. Here, we aim to curate an expression profile of Ace2 and other COVID-19 related genes across the available diabetes murine strains. Based on strictly manual curation and bioinformatics analysis of the publicly deposited expression datasets, Ace2 and other potentially involved genes such as Furin, Tmprss2, Ang, and Ang2 were examined. We found that Ace2 expression is rather ubiquitous in three selected diabetes prone strains (db/db, ob/ob and diet-induced obese). With the most abundant datasets present, the liver shows a medium Ace2 expression level compared with the lungs, pancreatic islets, brain and even T cells. Age is a more critical factor for Ace2 expression in db/db compared with the other two strains. Besides Ace2, the other four host genes showed varied levels of correlation to each other. To accelerate research on the interaction between COVID-19 and underlying diseases, the Murine4Covid transcriptomics database (www.geneureka.org/Murine4Covid) will facilitate the design of research on COVID-19 and comorbidities.

2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)是一种由新型严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒-2引起的呼吸道疾病,其发病率和死亡率都很高。除了呼吸道症状外,糖尿病、高血压、冠心病等老年患者的潜在疾病是最常见的合并症,这些合并症会导致更严重的后果,甚至死亡。在严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒-2的细胞附着和进入过程中,参与的关键蛋白是位于宿主细胞膜上的血管紧张素I转换酶2 (ACE2)。在这里,我们的目标是在可用的糖尿病小鼠品系中整理Ace2和其他COVID-19相关基因的表达谱。基于对公开保存的表达数据集的严格手工整理和生物信息学分析,Ace2和其他可能涉及的基因如Furin、Tmprss2、Ang和Ang2进行了检测。我们发现Ace2在三种糖尿病易感菌株(db/db, ob/ob和饮食诱导的肥胖)中普遍表达。根据目前最丰富的数据集,与肺、胰岛、脑甚至T细胞相比,肝脏显示出中等水平的Ace2表达。与其他菌株相比,年龄是影响Ace2表达(db/db)的关键因素。除Ace2外,其余4个宿主基因均表现出不同程度的相关性。为了加速研究COVID-19与基础疾病之间的相互作用,Murine4Covid转录组学数据库(www.geneureka.org/Murine4Covid)将促进COVID-19及其合并症的研究设计。
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引用次数: 0
Suspected Close Contacts as the Pilot Indicator of the Growth Trend of Confirmed Population During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Simulation Approach 疑似密切接触者作为新冠肺炎大流行期间确诊人口增长趋势的试点指标:一种模拟方法
Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2020-05-05 DOI: 10.1097/IM9.0000000000000026
Sisi Huang, Anding Zhu, Yan Wang, Yancong Xu, Lu Li, Dexing Kong
Abstract Background: Regarding to the actual situation of the new coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic, social factors should be taken into account and the increasing growth trend of confirmed populations needs to be explained. A proper model needs to be established, not only to simulate the epidemic, but also to evaluate the future epidemic situation and find a pilot indicator for the outbreak. Methods: The original susceptible-infectious-recover model is modified into the susceptible-infectious-quarantine-confirm-recover combined with social factors (SIDCRL) model, which combines the natural transmission with social factors such as external interventions and isolation. The numerical simulation method is used to imitate the change curve of the cumulative number of the confirmed cases and the number of cured patients. Furthermore, we investigate the relationship between the suspected close contacts (SCC) and the final outcome of the growth trend of confirmed cases with a simulation approach. Results: This article selects four representative countries, that is, China, South Korea, Italy, and the United States, and gives separate numerical simulations. The simulation results of the model fit the actual situation of the epidemic development and reasonable predictions are made. In addition, it is analyzed that the increasing number of SCC contributes to the epidemic outbreak and the prediction of the United States based on the population of the SCC highlights the importance of external intervention and active prevention measures. Conclusions: The simulation of the model verifies its reliability and stresses that observable variable SCC can be taken as a pilot indicator of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.
摘要背景:关于2019新型冠状病毒病疫情的实际情况,需要考虑社会因素,并解释确诊人口的增长趋势。需要建立一个适当的模型,不仅要模拟疫情,还要评估未来的疫情,并为疫情的爆发找到一个试点指标。方法:将原来的易感传染病康复模型修改为易感传染检疫确认康复与社会因素相结合(SIDCRL)模型,该模型将自然传播与外部干预、隔离等社会因素相融合。采用数值模拟方法模拟累计确诊病例数和治愈人数的变化曲线。此外,我们采用模拟方法研究了疑似密切接触者(SCC)与确诊病例增长趋势的最终结果之间的关系。结果:本文选取了中国、韩国、意大利和美国四个具有代表性的国家,分别进行了数值模拟。模型的仿真结果符合疫情发展的实际情况,并做出了合理的预测。此外,据分析,SCC数量的增加导致了疫情的爆发,美国基于SCC人口的预测突出了外部干预和积极预防措施的重要性。结论:该模型的模拟验证了其可靠性,并强调可观察变量SCC可以作为2019冠状病毒病大流行的试点指标。
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引用次数: 0
Translation: Expert Consensus on the Application of Artificial Liver Blood Purification System in the Treatment of Severe and Critical COVID-19 翻译:人工肝血液净化系统在重症和危重症新冠肺炎治疗中的应用专家共识
Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2020-04-17 DOI: 10.1097/im9.0000000000000021
Lanjuan Li
Abstract The prevention and treatment of COVID-19 nationwide has entered a tackling phase. Effective treatment of severe and critically ill patients is the key to reducing the fatality of the disease. The artificial liver blood purification system can remove inflammatory factors, alleviate the damage of the inflammatory response to the body, and has important value for the treatment of severe COVID-19. Led by Academician Lanjuan Li, based on the experience of treating patients across the country, integrating the opinions of experts from all over the country, the center summarized and formulated the consensus including the basic principles, treatment indications, relative contraindications, mode selection, monitoring indicators, and efficacy evaluation of artificial liver, which provides reference for treatment of severe COVID-19 patients.
全国新冠肺炎疫情防控工作进入攻坚期。对重症、危重症患者的有效治疗是降低病死率的关键。人工肝血液净化系统可清除炎症因子,减轻炎症反应对机体的损害,对重症COVID-19的治疗具有重要价值。在李兰娟院士的带领下,中心在总结全国收治患者经验的基础上,综合全国专家意见,总结制定了人工肝的基本原则、治疗适应证、相对禁忌证、模式选择、监测指标、疗效评价等共识,为COVID-19重症患者的治疗提供参考。
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引用次数: 3
Translation: Diagnosis and Treatment Protocol for Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (Trial Version 7) 新型冠状病毒肺炎诊疗方案(试行第7版)
Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2020-04-17 DOI: 10.1097/IM9.0000000000000022
Yueyue He
Abstract The National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China has released the document: Diagnosis and Treatment Protocol for Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia to standardize the diagnosis and treatment of COVID-19
中华人民共和国国家卫生健康委员会发布《新型冠状病毒肺炎诊疗方案》,规范新型冠状病毒肺炎诊疗
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引用次数: 25
Translation: Management of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Experience in Zhejiang Province, China 2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)的管理:中国浙江省的经验
Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2020-04-17 DOI: 10.1097/IM9.0000000000000023
Kaijin Xu, H. Cai, Yihong Shen, Qin Ni, Yu Chen, Shao-hua Hu, Jianping Li, Huafen Wang, Liang Yu, He Huang, Yunqing Qiu, G. Wei, Qiang Fang, Jianying Zhou, J. Sheng, T. Liang, Lanjuan Li
Abstract The current epidemic situation of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) still remains severe. As the National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital of the Zhejiang University School of Medicine is the primary medical care center for COVID-19 in Zhejiang Province. Based on the present expert consensus carried out by the National Health Commission and National Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine, our team summarized and established an effective treatment strategy centered on “Four-Anti and Two-Balance” for clinical practice. The “Four-Anti and Two-Balance” strategy includes antivirus, anti-shock, anti-hypoxemia, and anti-secondary infection, and maintaining of water, electrolyte and acid/base balance and microecological balance. Simultaneously, an integrated multidisciplinary personalized treatment is recommended to improve therapeutic effects. The importance of early viral detection, dynamic monitoring of inflammatory indexes, and chest radiographs has been emphasized in clinical decision-making. Sputum was observed with the highest positive rate by RT-PCR. Viral nucleic acids could be detected in 10% of the patients’ blood samples at the acute phase and 50% of patients had positive RT-PCR results in their feces. We also isolated live viral strains from feces, indicating potential infectiousness of feces. Dynamic cytokine detection was necessary to timely identify cytokine storms and for the application of the artificial liver blood purification system. The “Four-Anti and Two-Balance” strategy effectively increased cure rates and reduced mortality. Early antiviral treatment alleviated disease severity and prevented illness progression. We found that lopinavir/ritonavir combined with abidol showed antiviral effects against COVID-19. Shock and hypoxemia were usually caused by cytokine storms. The artificial liver blood purification system was able to rapidly remove inflammatory mediators and block the cytokine storm. Moreover, it also contributed to the balance of fluids, electrolytes, and acids/bases and thus improved treatment efficacy during critical illness. For cases of severe illness, early and also short periods of moderate glucocorticoid administration was supported. Patients with an oxygenation index below 200 mm Hg were transferred to the intensive care unit. Conservative oxygen therapy was preferred and noninvasive ventilation (NIV) was not recommended. Patients with mechanical ventilation were strictly supervised with cluster ventilator-associated pneumonia prevention strategies. Antimicrobial prophylaxis was prescribed rationally and was not recommended, except for patients with a long course of disease, repeated fever, and elevated procalcitonin, similarly secondary fungal infections were of concern. Some patients with COVID-19 showed intestinal microbial dysbiosis with decreased genus such as Lactobacillus and Bifidobacterium. Nutritional and gastrointestinal function should;
当前,新型冠状病毒病2019 (COVID-19)疫情形势依然严峻。浙江大学医学院第一附属医院是国家传染病临床研究中心,是浙江省新冠肺炎基层医疗服务中心。我们团队在国家卫健委、国家中医药管理局专家共识的基础上,总结并建立了以“四抗两平衡”为核心的有效治疗策略,用于临床实践。“四抗两平衡”策略包括抗病毒、抗休克、抗低氧血症、抗继发感染,以及维持水电解质酸碱平衡和微生态平衡。同时建议多学科综合个性化治疗,提高治疗效果。早期病毒检测、动态监测炎症指标和胸片在临床决策中的重要性已得到强调。痰液RT-PCR阳性率最高。10%的患者急性期血液样本中检测到病毒核酸,50%的患者粪便中RT-PCR结果阳性。我们还从粪便中分离出活的病毒株,表明粪便具有潜在的传染性。动态细胞因子检测对于及时识别细胞因子风暴和人工肝血液净化系统的应用是必要的。“四抗两平衡”战略有效提高治愈率,降低死亡率。早期抗病毒治疗减轻了疾病的严重程度,防止了疾病的发展。我们发现洛匹那韦/利托那韦联合阿比多尔对COVID-19具有抗病毒作用。休克和低氧血症通常由细胞因子风暴引起。人工肝血液净化系统能够快速清除炎症介质,阻断细胞因子风暴。此外,它还有助于平衡液体、电解质和酸/碱,从而提高危重疾病期间的治疗效果。对于病情严重的病例,支持早期和短时间的适度糖皮质激素治疗。氧合指数低于200 mm Hg的患者转至重症监护病房。首选保守氧疗,不推荐无创通气(NIV)。对机械通气患者进行严格的监督,并采取群集呼吸机相关肺炎预防策略。除病程长、反复发热、降钙素原升高的患者外,不建议合理使用抗菌药物预防,同样值得关注的是继发性真菌感染。部分患者出现肠道菌群失调,乳酸杆菌、双歧杆菌等菌群减少。营养和胃肠功能应;因此,对所有患者进行评估。建议营养支持和应用益生元或益生菌,以调节肠道菌群平衡,降低因细菌易位引起继发感染的风险。焦虑和恐惧在COVID-19患者中很常见。为此,建立了心理危机动态评估预警体系。我们还结合中医治疗,促进康复。优化重症患者护理流程,促进患者康复。由于严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2型感染后的病毒清除模式尚不清楚,因此需要对出院患者进行2周的隔离,并定期随访。这些浙江的经验和建议在我中心得到了落实,取得了良好的效果。然而,由于新冠肺炎是一种新发疾病,需要进一步完善预防、诊断和治疗策略。
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引用次数: 9
Impact of Population Mask Wearing on Covid-19 Post Lockdown 人口戴口罩对封锁后新冠肺炎的影响
Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2020-04-16 DOI: 10.1097/IM9.0000000000000029
Babak Javid, N. Balaban
COVID-19, caused by SARS-CoV2 is a rapidly spreading global pandemic. Although precise transmission routes and dynamics are unknown, SARS-CoV2 is thought primarily to spread via contagious respiratory droplets. Unlike with SARS-CoV, maximal viral shedding occurs in the early phase of illness, and this is supported by models that suggest 40-80% of transmission events occur from pre- and asymptomatic individuals. One widely-discussed strategy to limit transmission of SARS-CoV2, particularly from presymptomatic individuals, has been population-level wearing of masks. Modelling for pandemic influenza suggests some benefit in reducing total numbers infected with even 50% mask-use. COVID-19 has a higher hospitalization and mortality rate than influenza, and the impacts on these parameters, and critically, at what point in the pandemic trajectory mask-use might exert maximal benefit are completely unknown. We derived a simplified SIR model to investigate the effects of near-universal mask-use on COVID-19 assuming 8 or 16% mask efficacy. We decided to model, in particular, the impact of masks on numbers of critically-ill patients and cumulative mortality, since these are parameters that are likely to have the most severe consequences in the COVID-19 pandemic. Whereas mask use had a relatively minor benefit on critical-care and mortality rates when transmissibility (Reff) was high, the reduction on deaths was dramatic as the effective R approached 1, as might be expected after aggressive social-distancing measures such as wide-spread lockdowns. One major concern with COVID-19 is its potential to overwhelm healthcare infrastructures, even in resource-rich settings, with one third of hospitalized patients requiring critical-care. We incorporated this into our model, increasing death rates for when critical-care resources have been exhausted. Our simple model shows that modest efficacy of masks could avert substantial mortality in this scenario. Importantly, the effects on mortality became hyper-sensitive to mask-wearing as the effective R approaches 1, i.e. near the tipping point of when the infection trajectory is expected to revert to exponential growth, as would be expected after effective lockdown. Our model suggests that mask-wearing might exert maximal benefit as nations plan their post-lockdown strategies and suggests that mask-wearing should be included in further more sophisticated models of the current pandemic.
由SARS-CoV2引起的新冠肺炎是一种快速传播的全球大流行。尽管确切的传播途径和动态尚不清楚,但严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型被认为主要通过传染性呼吸道飞沫传播。与严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒不同,病毒的最大脱落发生在疾病的早期,这一点得到了模型的支持,该模型表明40-80%的传播事件发生在有症状和无症状的个体身上。一个被广泛讨论的限制严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型传播的策略,特别是症状前个体的传播,是在人群层面佩戴口罩。大流行性流感的建模表明,即使使用50%的口罩,也可以减少感染总数。新冠肺炎的住院率和死亡率高于流感,对这些参数的影响,尤其是在大流行轨迹中的什么时候使用口罩可能产生最大的益处,目前尚不清楚。我们导出了一个简化的SIR模型,以研究近全球使用口罩对新冠肺炎的影响,假设口罩功效为8%或16%。我们决定特别模拟口罩对危重患者人数和累计死亡率的影响,因为这些参数可能在新冠肺炎大流行中产生最严重的后果。当传播性(Reff)较高时,口罩的使用对重症监护和死亡率的影响相对较小,但随着有效R接近1,死亡人数大幅减少,这可能是在采取积极的社交距离措施(如广泛封锁)后所预期的。新冠肺炎的一个主要担忧是,即使在资源丰富的环境中,它也有可能淹没医疗基础设施,三分之一的住院患者需要重症监护。我们将此纳入我们的模型,在重症监护资源耗尽时提高死亡率。我们的简单模型表明,在这种情况下,口罩的适度功效可以避免大量死亡。重要的是,随着有效R接近1,即接近感染轨迹预计将恢复到指数增长的临界点,戴口罩对死亡率的影响变得非常敏感,正如有效封锁后所预期的那样。我们的模型表明,随着各国计划封锁后的战略,戴口罩可能会带来最大的好处,并建议将戴口罩纳入当前疫情的更复杂模型中。
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引用次数: 14
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Infectious microbes & diseases
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