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Interactive relationship between population aging, agricultural technology innovation and rural industrial upgrading 人口老龄化、农业技术创新与农村产业升级的互动关系
Pub Date : 2022-05-10 DOI: 10.18063/ijps.v7i2.1347
Ganghui Nie, Shengquan Li, Shu-xian Fang
Population aging is one of the challenges facing China’s rural industrial upgrading. Rural industrial upgrading is the basis of rural industrial revitalization strategy, and agricultural technological innovation is the core of rural industrial upgrading. Clarifying the relationship between population aging, agricultural technology innovation and rural industrial upgrading can provide a practical basis for the government to formulate a practical and effective Rural Revitalization Strategy. Based on China’s time series data from 1997 to 2018, an autoregressive model is constructed to test the interactive relationship between China’s population aging, agricultural technology innovation and rural industrial upgrading. The results show that population aging and agricultural technology innovation will promote the upgrading of rural industries. Although in the short term, the intensification of population aging will have an adverse impact on rural industrial upgrading and agricultural technology innovation; However, in the long run, the aging population has significantly promoted the level of agricultural technology innovation and had a positive impact on the upgrading of rural industries. Based on this conclusion, three policy suggestions are given to guide the reemployment of the elderly, advocate the correct consumption view of the elderly and pay attention to agricultural technology innovation.
人口老龄化是中国农村产业升级面临的挑战之一。农村产业升级是农村产业振兴战略的基础,农业技术创新是农村产业升级的核心。厘清人口老龄化、农业技术创新与农村产业升级之间的关系,可以为政府制定切实有效的乡村振兴战略提供实践依据。基于中国1997 - 2018年的时间序列数据,构建自回归模型,检验中国人口老龄化、农业技术创新和农村产业升级之间的互动关系。结果表明,人口老龄化和农业技术创新将促进农村产业升级。虽然在短期内,人口老龄化加剧将对农村产业升级和农业技术创新产生不利影响;但从长期来看,人口老龄化显著提升了农业技术创新水平,对农村产业升级产生了积极影响。基于这一结论,提出了引导老年人再就业、倡导正确的老年人消费观、重视农业技术创新的三条政策建议。
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引用次数: 1
Group differentiation and spatial pattern of residence stability of floating population 流动人口居住稳定性的群体分化与空间格局
Pub Date : 2022-05-10 DOI: 10.18063/ijps.v7i2.1362
Tao Liu, Rongxi Peng, Guangzhong Cao
Using the sampling survey data of 1% of the population in 2015, this paper analyzes the overall characteristics, group differentiation and spatial differences of the residence stability of the floating population, and discusses the influencing factors of the residence stability of the floating population. The results show that: a. the average residence time of China’s inter city floating population in the current city is about 5 years, the residence stability of the new generation of floating population is not significantly different from that of the old generation, and the residence stability of the floating population engaged in industrial industry is significantly lower than that of all kinds of service industry practitioners; b. the residence stability of the floating population in the province is lower than that of the inter provincial floating population, and it is more likely to leave the current city and turn to inter provincial mobility; c. there are obvious differences in the spatial pattern and influencing factors of the scale and residence stability of urban floating population. Although income level and employment opportunities are still the main factors to attract floating population, urban livable factors such as public services, housing market and environment are more important to improve the residence stability of floating population.
利用2015年1%人口的抽样调查数据,分析了流动人口居住稳定性的总体特征、群体分异和空间差异,探讨了流动人口居住稳定性的影响因素。结果表明:a.中国城市间流动人口在当前城市的平均居住时间约为5年,新一代流动人口的居住稳定性与老一代没有显著差异,从事工业行业的流动人口的居住稳定性显著低于各类服务业从业人员;B.省内流动人口的居住稳定性低于省际流动人口,更有可能离开当前城市,转向省际流动;C.城市流动人口规模和居住稳定性的空间格局及影响因素存在明显差异。虽然收入水平和就业机会仍然是吸引流动人口的主要因素,但公共服务、住房市场和环境等城市宜居因素对提高流动人口居住稳定性更为重要。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial differentiation and influencing factors of floating population’s length of residence willingness 流动人口居住意愿的空间分化及其影响因素
Pub Date : 2022-05-10 DOI: 10.18063/ijps.v7i2.1363
Tingting Li, Yu Zhu, Liyue Lin, Wenqian Ke, Baoyu Xiao
Based on the dynamic monitoring data of China’s floating population in 2018, according to the length of time that the floating population is willing to stay in the inflow area, the residence intention is divided into three types: short-term residence intention, long-term residence intention and permanent residence intention. The spatial differentiation and influencing factors of different types of residence intention of floating population in cities at and above the prefecture level in China are compared and analyzed by using spatial analysis technology and hierarchical model. It is found that the proportion of floating population with short-term and long-term residence intention is more than 60%, indicating that amphibious and multi-habitat livelihood is still the dominant livelihood strategy of floating population; there is an obvious spatial difference between short-term and permanent residence willingness. The short-term residence willingness is the highest in the eastern region and the lowest in the northeast region, while the permanent residence willingness shows a completely opposite distribution pattern; the floating population in the central and western regions has the highest willingness to stay for a long time. The results of the model show that the inflow characteristics and the individual characteristics of the floating population jointly affect different types of residence intention: in the eastern and central regions, economically developed areas and areas with high average wages, the floating population has higher short-term and long-term residence intention and lower permanent residence intention; the floating population who are male with agricultural registered permanent residence, low-level of education and family average monthly income, short floating time and inter provincial mobility tend to stay for a short time and a long time; the floating population who are female with non-agricultural registered permanent residence, high-level of education and family average monthly income, moving within the province and outside the province for a long time are more willing to settle permanently in the inflow place.
基于2018年中国流动人口动态监测数据,根据流动人口愿意在流入地区停留的时间长短,将居住意愿分为短期居住意愿、长期居住意愿和永久居住意愿三种。运用空间分析技术和层次模型,对我国地级以上城市流动人口不同类型居住意愿的空间分化及其影响因素进行了比较分析。研究发现,具有短期和长期居住意愿的流动人口比例均超过60%,表明两栖和多栖息地生计仍然是流动人口的主要生计策略;短期和长期居住意愿之间存在明显的空间差异。短期居住意愿东部地区最高,东北地区最低,而永久居住意愿呈现完全相反的分布格局;中西部流动人口长期居留意愿最高。模型结果表明,流动人口的流入特征和个体特征共同影响不同类型的居住意愿:在东部和中部地区、经济发达地区和平均工资较高地区,流动人口短期和长期居住意愿较高,常住意愿较低;具有农业户口、文化程度低、家庭月均收入低、流动时间短、省际流动的男性流动人口往往停留时间短、时间长;具有非农业户口、文化程度高、家庭月均收入、长期在省内外流动的女性流动人口更愿意在流入地永久定居。
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引用次数: 0
New development trend of China’s ethnic minority population 中国少数民族人口发展的新趋势
Pub Date : 2022-05-10 DOI: 10.18063/ijps.v7i2.1357
Shi-ying Xu
Based on the data of previous Chinese censuses, this paper briefly reviews the development process of the development of China’s ethnic minority population, discusses the differences in the population number and population growth trend of Chinese ethnic groups, and discusses the characteristics and change trend of China’s ethnic minority population in terms of regional distribution, age structure, mobility level, inter ethnic intermarriage and education level. Referring to the data of the seventh national census, this paper gives a preliminary judgment on the population situation of China’s ethnic minorities in 2020.
基于中国历次人口普查的数据,本文简要回顾了中国少数民族人口发展的发展过程,讨论了中国各民族人口数量和人口增长趋势的差异,并从区域分布的角度讨论了中国少数族裔人口的特征和变化趋势,年龄结构、流动水平、民族通婚和教育水平。本文参考第七次全国人口普查数据,对2020年中国少数民族人口状况进行了初步判断。
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引用次数: 0
The quality of employment for the elderly in Chile—A factor in active ageing 智利老年人的就业质量——积极老龄化的一个因素
Pub Date : 2022-05-10 DOI: 10.18063/ijps.v7i2.1354
Luz María Ferrada-Bórquez, Mauricio Alejandro Ferrada-Bórquez
The aging rate of the population is rising, and the number of elderly people participating in the Chilean labor market is also increasing. The purpose here is to understand employment conditions. To this end, partial and comprehensive indicators reflecting the status of social security, contracts, working days and income factors are estimated. There are significant differences between men and women in the estimated index, different levels of education, geographical residences, enterprise sizes and economic sectors in which they work. On the contrary, the conditions of social security and labor contract are the most different. These results are helpful to demonstrating the elements of public policy in the context of active aging.
人口老龄化率不断上升,参与智利劳动力市场的老年人数量也在增加。这里的目的是了解就业条件。为此,估计了反映社会保障状况、合同、工作日和收入因素的部分和全面指标。男性和女性在估计指数、不同的教育水平、地理居住地、企业规模和工作的经济部门方面存在显著差异。相反,社会保障和劳动合同的条件差异最大。这些结果有助于展示积极老龄化背景下的公共政策要素。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of population migration on regional economic gap in the Yangtze River economic belt and its spatial spillover effect 长江经济带人口迁移对区域经济差距的影响及其空间溢出效应
Pub Date : 2022-05-10 DOI: 10.18063/ijps.v7i2.1358
Yongming Zeng, Zeping Luo, Yao Wang
There has always been a debate on whether population migration has an expanding effect or a narrowing effect on the regional economic gap. This paper makes a further analysis of this issue by using the spatial panel data of 104 cities in the Yangtze River economic belt from 2001 to 2017. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) for the overall regional economic gap, there is an inverted “U”-shaped nonlinear relationship between population flow, population migration and economic gap: expansion effect in the early stage, and the convergence effect in the later stage, which is consistent with China’s gradient development strategy and the phased development concept of “the rich first pushing those being rich later, and finally realizing common prosperity”. (2) For the regional economic gap in the province, population flow also shows the role of expanding first and then converging, while population migration only shows the effect of expansion rather than convergence. The difference between population mobility and population migration originates from the spatial transformation of economic behavior and resource allocation brought about by the change of the latter’s household registration. (3) Considering the spatial effect, the endogenous relationship between population migration and regional economic gap becomes relatively complex, but more comprehensive and objective. The effect decomposition shows that population mobility and population migration are ultimately conducive to balanced regional development, with spillover effect playing an important role.
关于人口迁移对区域经济差距的影响是扩大还是缩小,一直存在争议。本文利用2001-2017年长江经济带104个城市的空间面板数据对这一问题进行了进一步的分析。主要结论如下:(1)对于整个区域经济差距,人口流动、人口迁移和经济差距之间存在倒“U”型非线性关系:前期扩张效应,后期收敛效应,这与中国的梯度发展战略和“先富后富,最终实现共同富裕”的阶段性发展理念是一致的。(2) 对于该省的区域经济差距,人口流动也表现出先扩张后收敛的作用,而人口迁移只表现出扩张而非收敛的效果。人口流动与人口迁移的差异源于后者户籍的变化所带来的经济行为和资源配置的空间转换。(3) 考虑到空间效应,人口迁移与区域经济差距之间的内生关系变得相对复杂,但更加全面和客观。效应分解表明,人口流动和人口迁移最终有利于区域均衡发展,溢出效应起着重要作用。
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引用次数: 0
Population aging and medical cost growth—From the perspective of medical cost concentration and Sustainability 人口老龄化与医疗成本增长——基于医疗成本集中度与可持续性的视角
Pub Date : 2022-05-10 DOI: 10.18063/ijps.v7i2.1348
Zhang Yue, Xigang Qin
This paper examines the causes of increasing medical expenses caused by population aging from the aspects of concentration and sustainability. Counterfactual calculation shows that the important fact that population aging increases medical expenses at different quantiles and reduces the distribution gap of medical expenses is rooted in the high concentration and strong sustainability of medical expenses of the elderly population. The medical expenses of the elderly population not only have the characteristics of high single hospitalization expenses, large proportion of continuous hospitalization and strong dispersion of medical expenses, but also have a heavier expenditure burden in the five medical expense levels. The influence of population aging on the growth of medical expenses is lower than that of the change of age structure of the whole population. The influence of endowment effect increases with time, and the increase of high score medical expenses is the most obvious. In addition, the improvement of health awareness plays a leading role in the structural effect affecting the growth of medical expenses. By constructing the theoretical logic that the medical needs of the elderly population affect the medical expenses, this paper strongly explains the reality of the rapid growth of medical expenses under the background of China’s aging population.
本文从集中度和可持续性两个方面探讨了人口老龄化导致医疗费用增加的原因。反事实计算表明,人口老龄化在不同分位数上增加了医疗费用,缩小了医疗费用分配差距,这一重要事实植根于老年人口医疗费用的高度集中和较强的可持续性。老年人群的医疗费用不仅具有单次住院费用高、连续住院比例大、医疗费用分散性强的特点,而且在五个医疗费用水平中支出负担更重。人口老龄化对医疗费用增长的影响小于整个人口年龄结构变化的影响。养老效应的影响随着时间的推移而增加,其中高分医疗费用的增加最为明显。此外,健康意识的提高在影响医疗费用增长的结构效应中起主导作用。通过构建老年人口医疗需求影响医疗费用的理论逻辑,有力地解释了中国人口老龄化背景下医疗费用快速增长的现实。
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引用次数: 0
Self-reported hearing loss, hearing aid use, and cognitive function among U.S. older adults. 美国老年人自我报告的听力损失、助听器使用和认知功能
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.18063/ijps.v8i1.1308
Jessica S West, Sherri L Smith, Matthew E Dupre

There has been increasing attention to the role of hearing loss as a potentially modifiable risk factor for Alzheimer's disease and related dementias. However, more nationally-representative studies are needed to understand the co-occurring changes in hearing loss and cognitive function in older adults over time, and how hearing aid use might influence this association. The purpose of this report is to examine how age-related changes in hearing loss and hearing aid use are associated with trajectories of cognitive function in a nationally-representative sample of U.S. older adults. We used 11 waves of longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) from 1998 to 2018 to examine changes in self-reported hearing loss, hearing aid use, and cognitive function in adults 65 and older by race and ethnicity. Results from mixed models showed that greater levels of hearing loss were associated with lower levels of cognitive function at age 65 in non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, and Hispanic older adults. We also found that the associations diminished across age in White and Black individuals; but remained persistent in Hispanic individuals. The use of hearing aids was not associated with cognitive function in Black older adults but appeared protective for White and Hispanic older adults. Overall, the findings from this report suggest that the timely identification of hearing loss and subsequent acquisition of hearing aids may be important considerations for reducing declines in cognitive function that manifests differently in U.S. population subgroups.

听力损失作为阿尔茨海默病和相关痴呆的潜在可改变风险因素的作用越来越受到关注。然而,需要更多具有全国代表性的研究来了解老年人听力损失和认知功能随时间的共同发生的变化,以及助听器的使用如何影响这种关联。本报告的目的是研究听力损失和助听器使用的年龄相关变化如何与美国全国代表性老年人的认知功能轨迹相关。我们使用了1998年至2018年健康与退休研究(HRS)的11波纵向数据,按种族和民族检查65岁及以上成年人自我报告的听力损失、助听器使用和认知功能的变化。混合模型的结果显示,在65岁时,非西班牙裔白人、非西班牙裔黑人和西班牙裔老年人中,听力损失水平越高,认知功能水平越低。我们还发现,在白人和黑人个体中,这种关联随着年龄的增长而减弱;但在西班牙裔个体中持续存在。在黑人老年人中,助听器的使用与认知功能无关,但对白人和西班牙裔老年人具有保护作用。总的来说,本报告的发现表明,及时识别听力损失并随后获得助听器可能是减少认知功能下降的重要考虑因素,认知功能下降在美国人群亚群中表现不同。
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引用次数: 3
Spatial pattern and changing trend of population inflow in China’s five major urban agglomerations 中国五大城市群人口流入空间格局及变化趋势
Pub Date : 2021-12-31 DOI: 10.18063/ijps.v8i1.1371
Guangzhong Cao, Sichuang Chen, Tao Liu
Urban agglomeration plays an important role in China’s urbanization pattern, and it is also the main population inflow place in the period of rapid urbanization. This paper focuses on the five urban agglomerations of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and Chengdu-Chongqing. Using the census and dynamic monitoring survey data of floating population, this paper analyzes the spatial pattern of population inflow in urban agglomerations from the multi-dimensional aspects of inflow population distribution pattern, flow range and source, and discusses the development trend of spatial pattern and its impact on inflow and outflow from the perspective of spatial differences in residence and settlement willingness. The study found that the inflow population of urban agglomerations continued to concentrate in the key cities, and the level and spatial distribution pattern were generally stable; the scope of flow has been expanded, and the growth rate of flow within the province is generally higher than that between provinces; the population attraction range of coastal urban agglomeration is large, but it still obeys the law of distance attenuation. There are differences in the preference of urban agglomeration from different oringins. In the inflow area, the key cities of coastal urban agglomerations face the continuous challenge of floating population management services, and the attraction of key cities and general cities of inland urban agglomerations coexist; in the outflow areas, the equal and open supply of high-quality public services is an important way to attract population return, and the population loss in a few areas may become a long-term phenomenon.
城市群在中国城市化格局中发挥着重要作用,也是快速城市化时期的主要人口流入地。本文以京津冀、长三角、珠三角、长江中游和成渝五大城市群为研究对象。利用流动人口普查和动态监测调查数据,从流入人口分布格局、流动范围和来源等多维度分析了城市群人口流入的空间格局,并从居住和定居意愿的空间差异角度探讨了空间格局的发展趋势及其对流入和流出的影响。研究发现,城市群流入人口继续向重点城市集中,水平和空间分布格局总体稳定;流动范围扩大,省内流动增速普遍高于省际流动增速;沿海城市群的人口吸引范围较大,但仍服从距离衰减规律。不同地区的城市群偏好存在差异。在流入区,沿海城市群重点城市面临流动人口管理服务的持续挑战,内陆城市群重点和一般城市的吸引力并存;在流出地区,平等开放地提供优质公共服务是吸引人口回流的重要途径,少数地区的人口流失可能成为长期现象。
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引用次数: 1
Comparison of tobacco mortality in selected countries in Latin America 拉丁美洲选定国家烟草死亡率的比较
Pub Date : 2021-04-09 DOI: 10.18063/ijps.v7i1.1366
L. Acosta, Florencia Molinatti, E. Peláez
Objective: To compare tobacco-attributable mortality in selected countries in Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico) from 2009 to 2013. Methods: Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) was used to estimate attributable mortality. then the years of life expectancy lost (YELP) were calculated, following the methodology proposed by Arriaga. Secondary data from national statistical offices were used. Results: Argentina and Chile have the highest proportion of men dying from tobacco (14.4% and 14.3% of total deaths, respectively), followed by Mexicans (12.5% of total deaths). Among women, the highest proportion is Chile (8% of total deaths), followed by Mexico and Argentina (5.3% and 5.1% of total deaths, respectively). Brazil has the lowest mortality rate for men and women (5.4% and 2.8% of total deaths, respectively). In terms of life expectancy, Argentine men and women are most affected by smoking deaths, losing life expectancy of 1.77 and 0.65 years, respectively, followed by Chilean men and women. Conclusion: Men and women in Argentina lost the most years of life because of smoking. This is consistent with the anti-smoking policy being implemented in the country. In contrast, control policies are implemented faster in other countries under review. However, despite great efforts to reduce tobacco consumption, tobacco remains the leading cause of death in all these countries.
目的:比较2009年至2013年拉丁美洲选定国家(阿根廷、巴西、智利和墨西哥)的烟草致死率。方法:采用比较风险评估法(CRA)估计可归因死亡率。然后按照Arriaga提出的方法计算预期寿命损失(YELP)。使用了国家统计局的二次数据。结果:阿根廷和智利的男性死于烟草的比例最高(分别占总死亡人数的14.4%和14.3%),其次是墨西哥人(占总死亡人口的12.5%)。在女性中,智利的比例最高(占总死亡人数的8%),其次是墨西哥和阿根廷(分别占总死亡人口的5.3%和5.1%)。巴西的男性和女性死亡率最低(分别占总死亡人数的5.4%和2.8%)。就预期寿命而言,阿根廷男性和女性受吸烟死亡的影响最大,预期寿命分别为1.77岁和0.65岁,其次是智利男性和女性。结论:阿根廷男性和女性因吸烟而失去的生命最多。这与该国正在实施的反吸烟政策是一致的。相比之下,其他受审查国家的控制政策执行得更快。然而,尽管为减少烟草消费做出了巨大努力,烟草仍然是所有这些国家的主要死亡原因。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
International journal of population studies
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