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Indigenous Knowledge Adaption Strategies in Response to Climate Change: The Case of North Gondar, Ethiopia 应对气候变化的土著知识适应战略:以埃塞俄比亚北贡达尔为例
Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.4172/2157-7617.1000470
A. Wondim, A. Genenew, G. Abaye, C. Demissie
The study was conducted in North Gonder Zone to identify the climate change variables and farmer’s indigenous climate change adaption strategies. The study took a sample of 130 farmers by using appropriate sampling techniques. Quantitative and qualitative data were collected from primary and secondary sources. Descriptive analysis was used to analyze farmer’s indigenous climate change adaption strategies quantitative. Besides, qualitative data were analyzed through narration. Different climate change variables, which affect livelihood of farmers, and variety of indigenous adaption strategies to minimize hazard due to climate change were identified. People living in the zone use indigenous adaption strategies based on Agro-ecology and farming system. The finding of research indicates that farmers adapt different strategies in response to different climatic change variables, and there are no best practices that can be used to tackle all climate change variables. Hence using a blend of the indigenous and scientific adaption strategies across the appropriate contexts is, therefore, of paramount importance.
本研究以北冈德地区为研究对象,探讨气候变化变量及农户的本土气候变化适应策略。本研究采用适当的抽样技术对130名农民进行了抽样。定量和定性数据从一手和二手来源收集。采用描述性分析方法,定量分析农户的本土气候变化适应策略。此外,通过叙述对定性数据进行分析。确定了影响农民生计的不同气候变化变量,以及减少气候变化危害的各种土著适应策略。居住在该地区的人们使用基于农业生态和耕作系统的土著适应策略。研究结果表明,农民适应不同的策略来应对不同的气候变化变量,并且没有可用于应对所有气候变化变量的最佳实践。因此,在适当的情况下混合使用土著和科学适应战略是至关重要的。
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引用次数: 2
Farmer's Perceptions and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change, Its Determinants and Impacts in Ethiopia: Evidence from Qwara District 埃塞俄比亚农民对气候变化的认知和适应策略及其决定因素和影响:来自Qwara地区的证据
Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.4172/2157-7617.1000481
M. Gedefaw, A. Girma, Yan Denghua, W. Hao, G. Agitew
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引用次数: 18
Perception of Farmers on Climate Change and their Adaptive Strategies over Bale Highlands, Southeastern Ethiopia 埃塞俄比亚东南部贝尔高地农民对气候变化的认识及其适应策略
Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.4172/2157-7617.1000491
W. Legese, D. Koricha, K. Ture
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引用次数: 2
Comparative and Evaluate of Empirical Models for Estimation Global Solar Radiation in Al-Baha, KSA Al-Baha地区太阳总辐射估算经验模式的比较与评价
Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.4172/2157-7617.1000492
Khalil Sa, A. Has
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引用次数: 11
River Slope and Roughness Impact on Downstream Hydraulic Structures 河流坡度和粗糙度对下游水工建筑物的影响
Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.4172/2157-7617.1000500
Melese Chanie Shumie
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引用次数: 1
Impact of Ponds on Local Climate: A Remote Sensing and GIS Contribution Application to the Ponds of Brenne (France) 池塘对当地气候的影响:基于遥感和GIS的法国布伦纳池塘贡献应用
Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.4172/2471-8556.1000503
R. Nedjai, A. Azaroual, K. Chlif, A. Bensaid, M. Al-Sayah, L. Ysbaa
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引用次数: 2
Determination of Crop Water Requirements for Maize in Abshege Woreda, Gurage Zone, Ethiopia 埃塞俄比亚古拉格地区Abshege Woreda玉米作物需水量的测定
Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.4172/2157-7617.1000439
Solomon Abirdew, G. Mamo, M. Mengesha
In Ethiopia where crop production overly depends on rainfall and temperature, studying the variability of these climate variables at a local scale is essential to devise proper strategies that enhance adaptive capacity. In light of this, a study was conducted in Abshege Woreda, Gurage Zone to determine crop water requirement of maize, which is major food crop of the area. Ten years i.e., (2006-2015) Indibir station climatological records of (sunshine duration hr/day), maximum and minimum temperature (OC), humidity (%) and wind speed (km/day) at 2 meters height were used in FAO Penman Monteith method. Secondary data were used to collect important soil parameters required for determination of crop water requirement in the study area such as field capacity (FC), permanent wilting point (PWP), initial soil moisture depletion (as % TAM) and available water holding capacity (mm/meter) while data for maximum rain infiltration rates (mm/day) and maximum rooting depth (cm) were obtained from literature based on similar textural class of the soil in the study area. Lengths of total growing periods of the crop was determined from ten years climate data and planting date was 10th May acquired from OAWBA and farmers of the area. Crop coefficients (kc), rooting depth, depletion level and other agronomic parameters were obtained from FAO guidelines (No 56) for each growth stage. The analyzed data indicated that Crop water requirement was estimated using CROPWAT 8.0 for window. A maize variety with a growing period of 140 days to maturity would requires 423 mm depth of water, while 101 mm would be required as supplementary irrigation depth.
在作物生产过度依赖于降雨和温度的埃塞俄比亚,在当地尺度上研究这些气候变量的变化对于制定增强适应能力的适当战略至关重要。为此,我们在古拉格地区的Abshege Woreda进行了一项研究,以确定该地区主要粮食作物玉米的作物需水量。FAO Penman Monteith方法使用了10年(2006-2015年)Indibir站2米高度的(日照时数小时/天)、最高和最低温度(OC)、湿度(%)和风速(km/天)的气候记录。次要数据用于收集确定研究区作物需水量所需的重要土壤参数,如田间容量(FC)、永久萎蔫点(PWP)、土壤初始水分枯竭(% TAM)和有效持水量(mm/m),而最大降雨入渗率(mm/day)和最大生根深度(cm)数据则基于研究区土壤相似的质地分类,从文献中获得。作物的总生长期长度是根据十年气候数据确定的,种植日期为5月10日,从OAWBA和该地区的农民那里获得。作物系数(kc)、生根深度、耗竭程度和其他农艺参数根据粮农组织指南(No . 56)获得。分析数据表明,采用CROPWAT 8.0进行窗期作物需水量估算。生长期为140天至成熟期的玉米品种,需水深度为423毫米,补充灌溉深度为101毫米。
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引用次数: 8
What Should we do in the Context of Land Use Change Occurring Frequently in China 在中国土地利用变化频繁的背景下,我们应该做些什么
Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.4172/2157-7617.1000454
Ming Cai, Tan Wenbing, Lei Wang, B. Xi, Lie-yu Zhang, Huilian Liu
China’s effort to mitigate soil organic carbon (SOC) loss caused by rapid land use changes over the last two decades faces great challenges. Generally, land use change projects in China have been performed without considering the mechanisms involved in the link between land use change and SOC dynamic. Such situation will likely increase the climatic and environmental risks brought by land use changes. In this paper, we illustrate why most studies over the past several decades in China have been unable to provide significant guiding information for what kind of land use can be adopted to benefit the climate and ecological environments. In addition, we recommend the combination of soil organic matter fractionation with radiocarbon assessment, which researchers are working on to better predict the dynamic trends of SOC under land use change and present several proposals in regard to how to sequester more carbon in soils after land use change.
近二十年来,中国土地利用快速变化所造成的土壤有机碳(SOC)流失面临巨大挑战。中国土地利用变化项目通常没有考虑土地利用变化与有机碳动态之间联系的机制。这种情况可能会增加土地利用变化带来的气候和环境风险。在本文中,我们说明了为什么过去几十年来中国的大多数研究都无法为采取何种土地利用方式有利于气候和生态环境提供重要的指导性信息。此外,我们建议将土壤有机质分异与放射性碳评估相结合,以更好地预测土地利用变化下土壤有机碳的动态趋势,并就土地利用变化后如何在土壤中固碳提出了一些建议。
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引用次数: 1
Hydrological Responses of Climate Change on Lake Ziway Catchment, Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia 埃塞俄比亚中部裂谷Ziway湖流域气候变化的水文响应
Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.4172/2157-7617.1000474
T. Abrahama, A. Woldemicheala, A. Muluneha, B. Abateb
This study predicts future runoff conditions under changing climate using multi model outputs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) over Lake Ziway Catchment. The River system is located in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia which serves for wide range of socio-economic activity, but recently different water use sectors are increasing their pressure on the water balance of the catchment. Bias corrected precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature data from three climate models HadGEM2-ES, CSIRO-MK-3-6-0 and CCSM4 under representative concentration pathways RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 were used as input for the hydrologic model. A calibrated and validated HBV model is used to simulate the future inflow from Katar River and Meki River towards Lake Ziway. The result revealed that the maximum and minimum temperature increased under RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios. However, precipitation showed a decreasing trend. The percentage change in monthly average precipitation showed extremes for HadGEM2-ES model which range between -51.19% during January 2050s and +23.15% during February 2080s under RCP 8.5. The model output showed an annual decrement in runoff depth on Katar River up to 19.45% during RCP 8.5 on CSIRO MK-3-6-0 model and maximum reduction was recorded for RCP 4.5 at 17.49% for CCSM4 model. Meki River has shown maximum annual reduction of 20.28% during 2080s on RCP 8.5 for HadGEM2-ES model and seasonally during Bulg maximum increment was recorded for the same model which ranges up to 10.23% on 2050s for RCP 4.5. However seasonal maximum reduction is obtained from Bulg season by 40.27% on HadGEM2-ES model during 2050s. From the study, a reduction in rainfall has brought larger effects on runoff reduction than evapotranspiration components. Due to future reduction of River flow on the region optimal allocations for water use purposes at all levels of water resource development projects are crucial for future water planning and management.
本研究利用耦合模式比对项目第5阶段(CMIP5)在Ziway湖流域的多模式输出预测了气候变化下的未来径流条件。该河流系统位于埃塞俄比亚中部裂谷,为广泛的社会经济活动提供服务,但最近不同的用水部门正在增加其对集水区水平衡的压力。采用HadGEM2-ES、CSIRO-MK-3-6-0和CCSM4三个气候模式在代表性浓度路径RCP 8.5和RCP 4.5下的降水、最高和最低温度数据作为输入。一个经过校准和验证的HBV模型用于模拟未来从Katar河和Meki河流向Ziway湖的流量。结果表明:在rcp8.5和rcp4.5情景下,最高气温和最低气温呈上升趋势;降水呈减少趋势。在RCP 8.5条件下,HadGEM2-ES模式的月平均降水百分比变化在2050年1月的-51.19%和2050年2月的+23.15%之间。CSIRO MK-3-6-0模式的RCP 8.5期间,Katar河径流深度年降幅达19.45%,CCSM4模式的RCP 4.5最大降幅为17.49%。在HadGEM2-ES模式下,梅基河在2080年代在RCP 8.5上的年最大减少量为20.28%;在Bulg期间,同一模式记录的最大增加量在2050年代在RCP 4.5上达到10.23%。然而,HadGEM2-ES模式在2050年代从Bulg季节得到了40.27%的季节性最大减少。从研究来看,降雨量的减少对径流减少的影响大于蒸散发成分。由于未来河流流量对区域的减少,各级水资源开发项目的用水优化配置对未来的水资源规划和管理至关重要。
{"title":"Hydrological Responses of Climate Change on Lake Ziway Catchment, Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia","authors":"T. Abrahama, A. Woldemicheala, A. Muluneha, B. Abateb","doi":"10.4172/2157-7617.1000474","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4172/2157-7617.1000474","url":null,"abstract":"This study predicts future runoff conditions under changing climate using multi model outputs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) over Lake Ziway Catchment. The River system is located in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia which serves for wide range of socio-economic activity, but recently different water use sectors are increasing their pressure on the water balance of the catchment. Bias corrected precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature data from three climate models HadGEM2-ES, CSIRO-MK-3-6-0 and CCSM4 under representative concentration pathways RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 were used as input for the hydrologic model. A calibrated and validated HBV model is used to simulate the future inflow from Katar River and Meki River towards Lake Ziway. The result revealed that the maximum and minimum temperature increased under RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios. However, precipitation showed a decreasing trend. The percentage change in monthly average precipitation showed extremes for HadGEM2-ES model which range between -51.19% during January 2050s and +23.15% during February 2080s under RCP 8.5. The model output showed an annual decrement in runoff depth on Katar River up to 19.45% during RCP 8.5 on CSIRO MK-3-6-0 model and maximum reduction was recorded for RCP 4.5 at 17.49% for CCSM4 model. Meki River has shown maximum annual reduction of 20.28% during 2080s on RCP 8.5 for HadGEM2-ES model and seasonally during Bulg maximum increment was recorded for the same model which ranges up to 10.23% on 2050s for RCP 4.5. However seasonal maximum reduction is obtained from Bulg season by 40.27% on HadGEM2-ES model during 2050s. From the study, a reduction in rainfall has brought larger effects on runoff reduction than evapotranspiration components. Due to future reduction of River flow on the region optimal allocations for water use purposes at all levels of water resource development projects are crucial for future water planning and management.","PeriodicalId":73713,"journal":{"name":"Journal of earth science & climatic change","volume":"10 1","pages":"1-16"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.4172/2157-7617.1000474","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70384117","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 24
Comparison of MLP-ANN Scheme and SDSM as Tools for Providing Downscaled Precipitation for Impact Studies at Daily Time Scale MLP-ANN方案与SDSM作为日尺度影响研究的降尺度降水工具的比较
Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.4172/2157-7617.1000475
Rahman Hashmi Mzu, Shamseldin Ay, Melville Bw
Statistical downscaling has become an important part in most of the watershed scale climate change investigations. It is usually performed using multiple regression-based models. Basic working principle of such models is to develop a suitable relationship between the large scale (predictors) and the local climatic parameters called predictands. The development of such relationships using linear regression becomes very challenging when the local parameter to be downscaled is complex in nature such as precipitation. For this reason, use of nonlinear data driven techniques including Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) is becoming more and more popular. Therefore, an attempt has been made in the study presented here to introduce a new Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) ANN-based scheme to develop a robust predictors-predictand relationship to be used as a downscaling model at daily time scale. The efficiency of this model has been compared with a popularly used model called Statistical Down Scaling Model (SDSM), for daily precipitation at the Clutha watershed in New Zealand. The results show that the model developed based on ANN scheme exhibits better performance than the SDSM. Hence, it is concluded that the use of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANN can greatly help in developing more efficient predictor-predictand models for even for precipitation being the toughest climate variable to model
统计降尺度已成为流域尺度气候变化研究的重要组成部分。它通常使用基于多元回归的模型来执行。这种模式的基本工作原理是在大尺度(预测因子)和称为预测因子的当地气候参数之间建立适当的关系。当待降尺度的局部参数性质复杂(如降水)时,利用线性回归发展这种关系变得非常具有挑战性。因此,使用非线性数据驱动技术,包括人工神经网络(ann)正变得越来越流行。因此,本文提出的研究尝试引入一种新的基于多层感知器(MLP)人工神经网络的方案,以开发一种鲁棒的预测器-预测器关系,作为日常时间尺度下的降尺度模型。该模型的效率已与新西兰Clutha流域日降水量的常用统计降尺度模型(SDSM)进行了比较。结果表明,基于人工神经网络的模型比基于SDSM的模型具有更好的性能。因此,我们得出的结论是,使用人工智能技术(如人工神经网络)可以极大地帮助开发更有效的预测-预测模型,即使对于最难建模的气候变量降水也是如此
{"title":"Comparison of MLP-ANN Scheme and SDSM as Tools for Providing Downscaled Precipitation for Impact Studies at Daily Time Scale","authors":"Rahman Hashmi Mzu, Shamseldin Ay, Melville Bw","doi":"10.4172/2157-7617.1000475","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4172/2157-7617.1000475","url":null,"abstract":"Statistical downscaling has become an important part in most of the watershed scale climate change investigations. It is usually performed using multiple regression-based models. Basic working principle of such models is to develop a suitable relationship between the large scale (predictors) and the local climatic parameters called predictands. The development of such relationships using linear regression becomes very challenging when the local parameter to be downscaled is complex in nature such as precipitation. For this reason, use of nonlinear data driven techniques including Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) is becoming more and more popular. Therefore, an attempt has been made in the study presented here to introduce a new Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) ANN-based scheme to develop a robust predictors-predictand relationship to be used as a downscaling model at daily time scale. The efficiency of this model has been compared with a popularly used model called Statistical Down Scaling Model (SDSM), for daily precipitation at the Clutha watershed in New Zealand. The results show that the model developed based on ANN scheme exhibits better performance than the SDSM. Hence, it is concluded that the use of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANN can greatly help in developing more efficient predictor-predictand models for even for precipitation being the toughest climate variable to model","PeriodicalId":73713,"journal":{"name":"Journal of earth science & climatic change","volume":"9 1","pages":"1-4"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.4172/2157-7617.1000475","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70384125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
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Journal of earth science & climatic change
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