Pub Date : 2023-10-30DOI: 10.1177/20530196231204340
Giovanni Aloisi
Ocean acidification and ocean deoxygenation are consequences of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions that remain largely unknown to the general public. Mostly, because lay audiences are not familiar with the complex chain of physical and chemical processes that drive these phenomena. This demands that communicators find clear, simple and psychologically effective language to frame ocean health issues in familiar terms. From antiquity to the Renaissance, and independently across multiple cultures, premodern thinkers have conceptualized the Earth in terms of the human body. This is not surprising given that metaphor lies at the core of human understanding. Building on this premodern tradition, I found a system of mathematical equations that calculates the chemical composition of the human body or the ocean, when forced by human physiological or oceanographic parameters, respectively. Based on this result, I build an extended analogy that introduces the basic functioning of the oceanic CO 2 and O 2 cycles to the general public. The analogy incorporates ocean acidification and deoxygenation, that have parallels in the acidification and deoxygenation of the human body caused by an asthma attack, providing ocean health communicators with a tool that promotes interest in, and explains the origin of, declining ocean heath. Extending the analogy to the continental domain allows to see the Earth as a superorganism, a perspective that may help promote an environmentally healthier relationship between humanity and the Earth.
{"title":"What the future ocean has in common with an asthma attack","authors":"Giovanni Aloisi","doi":"10.1177/20530196231204340","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20530196231204340","url":null,"abstract":"Ocean acidification and ocean deoxygenation are consequences of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions that remain largely unknown to the general public. Mostly, because lay audiences are not familiar with the complex chain of physical and chemical processes that drive these phenomena. This demands that communicators find clear, simple and psychologically effective language to frame ocean health issues in familiar terms. From antiquity to the Renaissance, and independently across multiple cultures, premodern thinkers have conceptualized the Earth in terms of the human body. This is not surprising given that metaphor lies at the core of human understanding. Building on this premodern tradition, I found a system of mathematical equations that calculates the chemical composition of the human body or the ocean, when forced by human physiological or oceanographic parameters, respectively. Based on this result, I build an extended analogy that introduces the basic functioning of the oceanic CO 2 and O 2 cycles to the general public. The analogy incorporates ocean acidification and deoxygenation, that have parallels in the acidification and deoxygenation of the human body caused by an asthma attack, providing ocean health communicators with a tool that promotes interest in, and explains the origin of, declining ocean heath. Extending the analogy to the continental domain allows to see the Earth as a superorganism, a perspective that may help promote an environmentally healthier relationship between humanity and the Earth.","PeriodicalId":74943,"journal":{"name":"The anthropocene review","volume":"844 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136069062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-12DOI: 10.1177/20530196231204324
Daniele Fulvi, Josh Wodak
In this article, we critically engage with the risk ethics of attempting to mitigate climate change via a technofix, namely Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) utilizing Synthetic Biology. Now that the IPCC has (belatedly) acknowledged climate overshoot as being inevitable, our dependency on NETs to avert runaway climate change has become critical. Given the scale of unknown unknowns at play when utilizing any such technofix, we present gambling as the most apt analogy to communicate the unprecedented realms of risk and uncertainty occasioned by any such action. Hence, we critique traditional normative ethics in order to illustrate how a germane climate ethics must face the largely uncertain and unpredictable risk that any climate change technofix would inevitably represent instead of advocating for outdated risk-averse positions. We conclude by showing that this approach is fundamental to developing impactful future ethics research on climate mitigation, and is required to mark a much-needed new direction for risk ethics in the Anthropocene.
{"title":"Gambling on unknown unknowns: Risk ethics for a climate change technofix","authors":"Daniele Fulvi, Josh Wodak","doi":"10.1177/20530196231204324","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20530196231204324","url":null,"abstract":"In this article, we critically engage with the risk ethics of attempting to mitigate climate change via a technofix, namely Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) utilizing Synthetic Biology. Now that the IPCC has (belatedly) acknowledged climate overshoot as being inevitable, our dependency on NETs to avert runaway climate change has become critical. Given the scale of unknown unknowns at play when utilizing any such technofix, we present gambling as the most apt analogy to communicate the unprecedented realms of risk and uncertainty occasioned by any such action. Hence, we critique traditional normative ethics in order to illustrate how a germane climate ethics must face the largely uncertain and unpredictable risk that any climate change technofix would inevitably represent instead of advocating for outdated risk-averse positions. We conclude by showing that this approach is fundamental to developing impactful future ethics research on climate mitigation, and is required to mark a much-needed new direction for risk ethics in the Anthropocene.","PeriodicalId":74943,"journal":{"name":"The anthropocene review","volume":"170 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136012975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-09DOI: 10.1177/20530196231204334
Richard E Walton, Heather L Moorhouse, Lucy R Roberts, Jorge Salgado, Cai JT Ladd, Nga Thu Do, Virginia N Panizzo, Pham Dang Tri Van, Nigel K Downes, Duc Anh Trinh, Suzanne McGowan, Sarah Taylor, Andrew CG Henderson
Tropical river deltas, and the social-ecological systems they sustain, are changing rapidly due to anthropogenic activity and climatic change. Baseline data to inform sustainable management options for resilient deltas is urgently needed and palaeolimnology (reconstructing past conditions from lake or wetland deposits) can provide crucial long-term perspectives needed to identify drivers and rates of change. We review how palaeolimnology can be a valuable tool for resource managers using three current issues facing tropical delta regions: hydrology and sediment supply, salinisation and nutrient pollution. The unique ability of palaeolimnological methods to untangle multiple stressors is also discussed. We demonstrate how palaeolimnology has been used to understand each of these issues, in other aquatic environments, to be incorporated into policy. Palaeolimnology is a key tool to understanding how anthropogenic influences interact with other environmental stressors, providing policymakers and resource managers with a ‘big picture’ view and possible holistic solutions that can be implemented.
{"title":"Using lake sediments to assess the long-term impacts of anthropogenic activity in tropical river deltas","authors":"Richard E Walton, Heather L Moorhouse, Lucy R Roberts, Jorge Salgado, Cai JT Ladd, Nga Thu Do, Virginia N Panizzo, Pham Dang Tri Van, Nigel K Downes, Duc Anh Trinh, Suzanne McGowan, Sarah Taylor, Andrew CG Henderson","doi":"10.1177/20530196231204334","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20530196231204334","url":null,"abstract":"Tropical river deltas, and the social-ecological systems they sustain, are changing rapidly due to anthropogenic activity and climatic change. Baseline data to inform sustainable management options for resilient deltas is urgently needed and palaeolimnology (reconstructing past conditions from lake or wetland deposits) can provide crucial long-term perspectives needed to identify drivers and rates of change. We review how palaeolimnology can be a valuable tool for resource managers using three current issues facing tropical delta regions: hydrology and sediment supply, salinisation and nutrient pollution. The unique ability of palaeolimnological methods to untangle multiple stressors is also discussed. We demonstrate how palaeolimnology has been used to understand each of these issues, in other aquatic environments, to be incorporated into policy. Palaeolimnology is a key tool to understanding how anthropogenic influences interact with other environmental stressors, providing policymakers and resource managers with a ‘big picture’ view and possible holistic solutions that can be implemented.","PeriodicalId":74943,"journal":{"name":"The anthropocene review","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135095979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-18DOI: 10.1177/20530196231186962
William B. Bates, Long Chu, Hozaus Claire, M. Colloff, R. Cotton, R. Davies, L. Larsen, G. Loughrey, A. Manero, V. Marshall, Sarah Martin, Nhat-Mai Nguyen, W. Nikolakis, Anne Poelina, Daniel Schulz, K. Taylor, John F. Williams, Paul R. Wyrwoll, R. Grafton
Two of Australia’s iconic river systems, Baaka in New South Wales (NSW) and Martuwarra in Western Australia (WA), are described in a narrative that connects Indigenous custodianship, bio-physical features and art, and contrasts settler law with First Law to provide multiple ways of seeing the two river systems. Our narrative is a shared response to: (1) upstream water extractions that have imposed large costs on Baaka and its peoples; and (2) threats of water extractions and developments to Martuwarra. By scribing the voices of the two river systems, we have created a space to reimagine an emerging future that connects the past and present through the concept of ‘EveryWhen’, where First Law has primacy, and where art connects Indigenous knowledges to non-Indigenous understanding. Through a dialogue process with Indigenous knowledge holders, artists and water researchers, five action processes, or journeys, are identified to guide water decision making towards water justice.
{"title":"A tale of two rivers – Baaka and Martuwarra, Australia: Shared voices and art towards water justice","authors":"William B. Bates, Long Chu, Hozaus Claire, M. Colloff, R. Cotton, R. Davies, L. Larsen, G. Loughrey, A. Manero, V. Marshall, Sarah Martin, Nhat-Mai Nguyen, W. Nikolakis, Anne Poelina, Daniel Schulz, K. Taylor, John F. Williams, Paul R. Wyrwoll, R. Grafton","doi":"10.1177/20530196231186962","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20530196231186962","url":null,"abstract":"Two of Australia’s iconic river systems, Baaka in New South Wales (NSW) and Martuwarra in Western Australia (WA), are described in a narrative that connects Indigenous custodianship, bio-physical features and art, and contrasts settler law with First Law to provide multiple ways of seeing the two river systems. Our narrative is a shared response to: (1) upstream water extractions that have imposed large costs on Baaka and its peoples; and (2) threats of water extractions and developments to Martuwarra. By scribing the voices of the two river systems, we have created a space to reimagine an emerging future that connects the past and present through the concept of ‘EveryWhen’, where First Law has primacy, and where art connects Indigenous knowledges to non-Indigenous understanding. Through a dialogue process with Indigenous knowledge holders, artists and water researchers, five action processes, or journeys, are identified to guide water decision making towards water justice.","PeriodicalId":74943,"journal":{"name":"The anthropocene review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41627730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-11DOI: 10.1177/20530196231187242
Pauline Picot, B. Guillaume
The notion of ‘technosphere’ has been proposed to refer to the whole of technological infrastructures, stressing the importance of technology in the Anthropocene. Peter K Haff introduced it in the field of Earth System Science a decade ago. His argument entangles the claim of the technosphere’s uncontrollability with an attempt to overcome anthropocentrism. We develop a critical analysis of this proposal, enriched by a literature review. The idea of a ‘technosphere’ has been present in the scientific literature for at least 50 years. We provide an analysis of the evolution of the uses of the ‘technosphere’ before Haff’s publications. Then, we discuss in which ways Haff’s contribution is in continuity or rupture with these older views. Finally, we argue that the technosphere has little relevance when addressing the question of technology controllability and for overcoming anthropocentrism. This leads us to introduce an alternative proposal to the technosphere: ‘technodiversity’.
“技术领域”的概念被提出是指整个技术基础设施，强调了技术在人类世的重要性。十年前，Peter K Haff在地球系统科学领域介绍了它。他的论点将技术领域的不可控制性与克服人类中心主义的努力纠缠在一起。我们对这一建议进行了批判性分析，并通过文献综述进行了丰富。“技术领域”的概念在科学文献中已经存在了至少50年 年。在哈夫出版之前，我们对“技术领域”的使用演变进行了分析。然后，我们讨论了哈夫在哪些方面的贡献与这些旧观点是连续的或断裂的。最后，我们认为，在解决技术可控性问题和克服人类中心主义问题时，技术领域几乎没有相关性。这导致我们提出了一个技术领域的替代方案：“技术多样性”。
{"title":"The controllability of the Technosphere, an impossible question","authors":"Pauline Picot, B. Guillaume","doi":"10.1177/20530196231187242","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20530196231187242","url":null,"abstract":"The notion of ‘technosphere’ has been proposed to refer to the whole of technological infrastructures, stressing the importance of technology in the Anthropocene. Peter K Haff introduced it in the field of Earth System Science a decade ago. His argument entangles the claim of the technosphere’s uncontrollability with an attempt to overcome anthropocentrism. We develop a critical analysis of this proposal, enriched by a literature review. The idea of a ‘technosphere’ has been present in the scientific literature for at least 50 years. We provide an analysis of the evolution of the uses of the ‘technosphere’ before Haff’s publications. Then, we discuss in which ways Haff’s contribution is in continuity or rupture with these older views. Finally, we argue that the technosphere has little relevance when addressing the question of technology controllability and for overcoming anthropocentrism. This leads us to introduce an alternative proposal to the technosphere: ‘technodiversity’.","PeriodicalId":74943,"journal":{"name":"The anthropocene review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45752235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-22DOI: 10.1177/20530196231182354
I. Stavi, Chi Xu, Eli Argaman
Land degradation and desertification are widespread across the world’s drylands. These processes are substantially affected by climatic change, with long-term and severe droughts on the one hand, and high intensity rainstorms and devastating floods on the other hand. Simultaneously, land-use change and mismanagement practices have led to processes of accelerated soil erosion, depletion of soil organic carbon pools, and the degradation of extensive drylands. Forestry has been accepted as an effective means for restoring degraded drylands, and for attaining a range of regulating, provisioning, supporting, and cultural ecosystem services. Specifically, forestry is widely perceived as an effective means for soil erosion control, organic carbon sequestration, microclimate improvement, and climate change mitigation. However, forestry in drylands often proves to generate substantial environmental challenges, resulting in deterioration of ecosystem functions and health. The objective of this essay is to review the challenges and opportunities induced by dryland afforestation and reforestation, and highlight the need to attain climate-smart strategies for establishing and managing these land-uses. Particularly, tree species invasion and allelopathy, which are common in dryland forestry projects, jeopardize species richness and diversity of native vegetation communities. Further, the challenges linked with tree invasiveness necessitate predicting the distribution of potentially invasive species and foreseeing their impacts on the recipient ecosystems under projected climate change scenarios. The effect of allelopathy is significant under limited water availability conditions and is expected to be determined by the expanding drylands and intensifying aridity worldwide. Therefore, judicious selection of tree species should not only focus on ones with high water-use efficiency, low flammability, high pest resistance, and fast growth, but also on low invasiveness and allelopathic capacities. Insights of this essay may be used by land managers, stakeholders, and policy makers involved in environmental development of drylands.
{"title":"Climate-smart forestry in the world’s drylands: A review of challenges and opportunities","authors":"I. Stavi, Chi Xu, Eli Argaman","doi":"10.1177/20530196231182354","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20530196231182354","url":null,"abstract":"Land degradation and desertification are widespread across the world’s drylands. These processes are substantially affected by climatic change, with long-term and severe droughts on the one hand, and high intensity rainstorms and devastating floods on the other hand. Simultaneously, land-use change and mismanagement practices have led to processes of accelerated soil erosion, depletion of soil organic carbon pools, and the degradation of extensive drylands. Forestry has been accepted as an effective means for restoring degraded drylands, and for attaining a range of regulating, provisioning, supporting, and cultural ecosystem services. Specifically, forestry is widely perceived as an effective means for soil erosion control, organic carbon sequestration, microclimate improvement, and climate change mitigation. However, forestry in drylands often proves to generate substantial environmental challenges, resulting in deterioration of ecosystem functions and health. The objective of this essay is to review the challenges and opportunities induced by dryland afforestation and reforestation, and highlight the need to attain climate-smart strategies for establishing and managing these land-uses. Particularly, tree species invasion and allelopathy, which are common in dryland forestry projects, jeopardize species richness and diversity of native vegetation communities. Further, the challenges linked with tree invasiveness necessitate predicting the distribution of potentially invasive species and foreseeing their impacts on the recipient ecosystems under projected climate change scenarios. The effect of allelopathy is significant under limited water availability conditions and is expected to be determined by the expanding drylands and intensifying aridity worldwide. Therefore, judicious selection of tree species should not only focus on ones with high water-use efficiency, low flammability, high pest resistance, and fast growth, but also on low invasiveness and allelopathic capacities. Insights of this essay may be used by land managers, stakeholders, and policy makers involved in environmental development of drylands.","PeriodicalId":74943,"journal":{"name":"The anthropocene review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46624855","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-06DOI: 10.1177/20530196231177697
J. Phillips
This paper conducts a detailed quantitative study of the indicated long-term levels, nature and dynamics of sustainability at the global spatial scale over time, within the context of the vulnerability of the environment-human relationship and system. In this study, the Sustainability Dynamics Framework is applied to the results of the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative index for the period 1995–2018. The study indicates that the obtained S-values at the global spatial scale throughout the specified period were consistent with very weak unsustainability occurring. Through statistical analysis, the study indicates that the triumvirate of influencing factors (Population, GDP, Greenhouse Gases) have a significant influence and impact individually and cumulatively upon obtained S-values. The study then determines the net change in obtained E, HNI and S-values, and consequently evaluates the dynamics of the rate of change of the Earth System ( dE/dt), as defined in the Anthropocene Equation theory. To support this, Fourier analysis of net change of S-values is applied for the first time within the SDF application methodology, using eight time periods of 16 years’ duration over the period 1996–2018. The analysis indicates continuous overlapping cycles of 7 years’ duration, consisting of a lag time of 3 years leading to an impact period of 4 years. The Fourier analysis potentially indicates clearly for the first-time humanity’s footprint signal upon the environment-human relationship and system in the Anthropocene. The study concludes that humanity’s actions and inactions have resulted in the indicated unsustainability and vulnerability of the environment-human relationship and system. As a consequence, there is a potential realistic risk of systemic collapse unless fundamental changes occur in respect to the global environment-human relationship.
{"title":"Determining the fundamental dynamics of global sustainability in the Anthropocene from a vulnerability perspective","authors":"J. Phillips","doi":"10.1177/20530196231177697","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20530196231177697","url":null,"abstract":"This paper conducts a detailed quantitative study of the indicated long-term levels, nature and dynamics of sustainability at the global spatial scale over time, within the context of the vulnerability of the environment-human relationship and system. In this study, the Sustainability Dynamics Framework is applied to the results of the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative index for the period 1995–2018. The study indicates that the obtained S-values at the global spatial scale throughout the specified period were consistent with very weak unsustainability occurring. Through statistical analysis, the study indicates that the triumvirate of influencing factors (Population, GDP, Greenhouse Gases) have a significant influence and impact individually and cumulatively upon obtained S-values. The study then determines the net change in obtained E, HNI and S-values, and consequently evaluates the dynamics of the rate of change of the Earth System ( dE/dt), as defined in the Anthropocene Equation theory. To support this, Fourier analysis of net change of S-values is applied for the first time within the SDF application methodology, using eight time periods of 16 years’ duration over the period 1996–2018. The analysis indicates continuous overlapping cycles of 7 years’ duration, consisting of a lag time of 3 years leading to an impact period of 4 years. The Fourier analysis potentially indicates clearly for the first-time humanity’s footprint signal upon the environment-human relationship and system in the Anthropocene. The study concludes that humanity’s actions and inactions have resulted in the indicated unsustainability and vulnerability of the environment-human relationship and system. As a consequence, there is a potential realistic risk of systemic collapse unless fundamental changes occur in respect to the global environment-human relationship.","PeriodicalId":74943,"journal":{"name":"The anthropocene review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47465769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-03DOI: 10.1177/20530196231177686
R. Thompson
The article argues that the relationships and historical trends of global temperatures and of fossil-fuel production are now both clear and relatively stable. Hence archival data of past performance allow a ‘speedometer reading’ of current rates of change and enable a direct ‘reality check’ on claims about future climate change. Embedded in a new Hubbert-style resource model the historical rates forecast that surface temperatures remain on course to rise by 4.5°C (6°C over land) by the early 2100s. This unsettling prospect is in close accord with several middle-of-the-road projections in the recent sixth IPCC Assessment Report (2021). Instead, if hoped-for targets of carbon neutrality are to be met and global temperature rises held to well below 2°C, as stipulated in the Paris Agreement, then the current rate of deployment of clean power sources would need to accelerate by an unprecedented 100-fold, to around 50 EJ year−1, within the decade.
{"title":"International climate targets are achievable, but only in models, not in the real world","authors":"R. Thompson","doi":"10.1177/20530196231177686","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20530196231177686","url":null,"abstract":"The article argues that the relationships and historical trends of global temperatures and of fossil-fuel production are now both clear and relatively stable. Hence archival data of past performance allow a ‘speedometer reading’ of current rates of change and enable a direct ‘reality check’ on claims about future climate change. Embedded in a new Hubbert-style resource model the historical rates forecast that surface temperatures remain on course to rise by 4.5°C (6°C over land) by the early 2100s. This unsettling prospect is in close accord with several middle-of-the-road projections in the recent sixth IPCC Assessment Report (2021). Instead, if hoped-for targets of carbon neutrality are to be met and global temperature rises held to well below 2°C, as stipulated in the Paris Agreement, then the current rate of deployment of clean power sources would need to accelerate by an unprecedented 100-fold, to around 50 EJ year−1, within the decade.","PeriodicalId":74943,"journal":{"name":"The anthropocene review","volume":"10 1","pages":"479 - 493"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44115358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-16DOI: 10.1177/20530196231172423
R. Taagepera, Miroslav Nemčok
Enormous growth of the world population during the last two centuries and its present slowing down pose questions about precedents in history and broader forces shaping the population size. Population estimates collected in an extensive survey of literature (873 estimates from 25 studies covering 1,000,000 BCE to 2100 CE) show that world population growth has proceeded in two distinct phases of acceleration followed by stoppage—from at least 25,000 BCE to 100 BCE, and from 400 CE to the present, interrupted by centuries of standstill and 10% decrease. Both phases can be fitted with a mathematical function that projects to a peak at 11.2 ± 1.5 billion around 2100 CE. An interaction model can account for this acceleration-stoppage pattern in quantitative detail: Technology grows exponentially, with rate boosted by population. Population grows exponentially, capped by Earth’s carrying capacity. Technology raises this cap, but only until it approaches Earth’s ultimate carrying capacity.
{"title":"World population growth over millennia: Ancient and present phases with a temporary halt in-between","authors":"R. Taagepera, Miroslav Nemčok","doi":"10.1177/20530196231172423","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20530196231172423","url":null,"abstract":"Enormous growth of the world population during the last two centuries and its present slowing down pose questions about precedents in history and broader forces shaping the population size. Population estimates collected in an extensive survey of literature (873 estimates from 25 studies covering 1,000,000 BCE to 2100 CE) show that world population growth has proceeded in two distinct phases of acceleration followed by stoppage—from at least 25,000 BCE to 100 BCE, and from 400 CE to the present, interrupted by centuries of standstill and 10% decrease. Both phases can be fitted with a mathematical function that projects to a peak at 11.2 ± 1.5 billion around 2100 CE. An interaction model can account for this acceleration-stoppage pattern in quantitative detail: Technology grows exponentially, with rate boosted by population. Population grows exponentially, capped by Earth’s carrying capacity. Technology raises this cap, but only until it approaches Earth’s ultimate carrying capacity.","PeriodicalId":74943,"journal":{"name":"The anthropocene review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42492417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-08DOI: 10.1177/20530196231170369
Igor Mautinović, R. Ulanowicz, Domagoj Vlah
We use a simulation model to explore the theoretical impact of technology, recycling, household propensity for material consumption, and nature conservation policies on economic growth and possible stabilization of the global economy within biophysical boundaries. The model dynamics, which arise from the autocatalytic loop between production and household sectors that deplete finite natural resources, qualitatively reproduce historically observed global GDP growth. The simulation results show that a sustainable but unstable steady-state can be reasonably reached only by the simultaneous application of policies that increase nature conservation and promote environmentally efficient technologies, a circular economy, and less-intensive material lifestyles. These policy measures, if realized, would reflect the anticipatory behavior of the human system to prevent future hazards by taking adequate actions in the present. The unstable steady-state suggests long-term sustainability would depend on continuous behavioral, institutional, and policy adjustments rooted in anticipatory behavior.
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