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Climate Change and State-Building in the World’s Most Agricultural Countries 全球农业大国的气候变化与国家建设
Pub Date : 2021-10-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3868082
Giacomo Benati, C. Guerriero
While the short run negative effect of adverse climate shocks on economic outcomes is undisputed, our understanding of their long run institutional impact is limited. To clarify this issue, we propose a time inconsistency theory of state-building and we document that, in the world’s most agricultural countries, severe droughts pushed the elites to grant a more inclusive political process. This reform convinced the nonelites that a sufficient part of the returns on joint farming investments would be shared via public good provision and, thus, to cooperate. To elaborate, the severity of droughts has a negative and short run direct effect on agricultural output, whereas its institutional impact is positive and persistent. Moreover, reforms towards more inclusive political institutions shift the allocation of tax revenues from military to education expenditures and, thus, exert a positive and delayed impact on agricultural output. These results suggest that policymakers should: (a) consider short and long run effects of climate change; (b) calibrate climate-related policies according to the degree of complementarity of group-specific input/skills; (c) avoid the unfettered transplantation of strong political rights in all developing countries. Finally, our analysis emphasizes the need of combining natural and social sciences to inform policy intervention.
虽然不利气候冲击对经济结果的短期负面影响是无可争议的,但我们对其长期制度影响的理解是有限的。为了澄清这个问题,我们提出了一个国家建设的时间不一致理论,并证明,在世界上大多数农业国家,严重的干旱促使精英们给予一个更具包容性的政治进程。这一改革使非精英阶层相信,联合农业投资的足够部分回报将通过提供公共产品分享,从而进行合作。具体来说,干旱的严重程度对农业产出具有负面和短期的直接影响,而其制度影响是积极和持久的。此外,朝着更具包容性的政治制度进行改革,将税收收入的分配从军事支出转向教育支出,从而对农业产出产生积极的、延迟的影响。这些结果表明决策者应该:(a)考虑气候变化的短期和长期影响;(b)根据特定群体投入/技能的互补性程度校准与气候有关的政策;(c)避免在所有发展中国家无限制地移植强有力的政治权利。最后,我们的分析强调了将自然科学和社会科学结合起来为政策干预提供信息的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
The heterogeneous effects of agricultural conservation easements on the loss of farmland to development in New England 新英格兰地区农业保护性地役权对耕地流失的异质性影响
Pub Date : 2021-10-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3944928
Kai Lee, C. Nolte
Farmland near cities can provide diverse non-market benefits, such as recreational open space, landscape appeal, local food production, ecological habitat, and water regulation, which risk being underprovided by markets in the absence of intervention. The rapid loss of farmland to development has long been a concern of conservation non-profits and policymakers in the U.S. and globally, which has recently gained traction due to President Biden's decision to include farmlands in the federal goal to protect 30% of U.S. land by 2030. Agricultural conservation easements are a widespread policy tool to protect farmland from conversion to development in the long term. However, the extent to which these easements causally reduce farmland loss to development within their boundaries is rarely studied at the spatial scale at which easement adoption decisions are made: the individual parcel. Here we estimate the impacts of agricultural conservation easements on farmland loss at the parcel level at a large spatial scale and over a long time horizon. Our case study from six New England states uses a rich dataset of 1.97 million parcels, novel estimates of annual parcel-level land cover change from 1988 to 2016, and quasi-experimental counterfactual estimation strategies to estimate the extent to which 3,959 farmland easements causally avoided conversion of cropland to development. Our results suggest that agricultural conservation easements have significantly reduced farmland loss to development. However, the overall magnitude of avoided rates of farmland loss on easements is very small (0.0067% ± 0.0019% of parcel area per annum), largely because of a low background rate of farmland loss across New England (0.0027% of total area per annum). A spatial allocation of agricultural easements towards more rapidly urbanizing counties (with farmland loss rates of up to 0.0281% of county area per annum) would increase the causal impacts of this instrument. Overall, our findings suggest that the spatial allocation of farmland easements has historically not prioritized the highest-threat locations where impacts would be most noticeable, indicating that allocation is driven by a variety of goals in addition to avoiding farmland loss.
城市附近的农田可以提供多种非市场效益,如休闲开放空间、景观吸引力、当地食品生产、生态栖息地和水资源调节,在缺乏干预的情况下,市场可能无法提供这些效益。长期以来,美国和全球的保护非营利组织和政策制定者一直担心农田的迅速流失,最近,拜登总统决定将农田纳入到2030年保护美国30%土地的联邦目标中,这一问题得到了关注。从长远来看,农业保护地役权是一种广泛使用的政策工具,可以防止农田转为开发。然而,这些地役权在多大程度上减少了其边界内发展的耕地损失,很少在做出地役权采用决定的空间尺度上进行研究:单个地块。本文在大空间尺度和长时间尺度上估算了农业保护性地役权对地块层面耕地流失的影响。我们对新英格兰六个州的案例进行了研究,使用了197万个地块的丰富数据集,对1988年至2016年地块级土地覆盖的年度变化进行了新颖的估计,并采用准实验反事实估计策略来估计3959个农田地役权在很大程度上避免了耕地转为开发。我们的研究结果表明,农业保护地役权显著减少了耕地的发展损失。然而,地役权避免耕地损失率的总体幅度非常小(每年占地块面积的0.0067%±0.0019%),主要是因为新英格兰地区的耕地损失率较低(每年占总面积的0.0027%)。将农业地役权在空间上分配给城市化速度更快的县(每年耕地损失率高达县面积的0.0281%)将增加这一工具的因果影响。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,从历史上看,耕地地役权的空间分配并没有优先考虑影响最明显的最高威胁地点,这表明除了避免耕地损失外,分配还受到各种目标的驱动。
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引用次数: 0
Displacement Risk in Agricultural Commodity Markets: The Impact of Plant-Based Meat 农产品市场的流离失所风险:植物性肉类的影响
Pub Date : 2021-10-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3940081
Florencia Baldi, Nicolas Merener
Plant-based meat is an innovative and sustainable type of food that has been received with enthusiasm by consumers and investors. It is also a threat for the demand of traditional meat, and for those crops used primarily as animal feed. In 2019, 59 % of global corn and 83 % of global soybean production were used as inputs for meat production. In this paper we consider plausible global plant-based meat adoption scenarios for 2030 and couple them with production, efficiency and price elasticity measures from the literature. We generate simulated corn and soybean negative demand shifts and their associated price change distributions, relative to a baseline scenario without plant-based meat. Expected (std. dev) declines for corn and soybean prices under low plant-based meat adoption scenarios are -13% (4%) and -21% (6%) respectively. For high adoption scenarios, corn and soybean price declines are -23% (5%) and -35% (8%). These projections are economically very significant. Permanent shocks of this magnitude are comparable, but of opposite sign, to that caused in 2005-2010 by the ethanol mandate on the price of corn and reported in the literature. Corn and soybean producers, at the farm and regional level, are at risk of suffering from technological displacement.
植物性肉类是一种创新和可持续的食物,受到消费者和投资者的热烈欢迎。这对传统肉类的需求以及主要用作动物饲料的作物也构成了威胁。2019年,全球玉米产量的59%和大豆产量的83%被用作肉类生产的投入物。在本文中,我们考虑了2030年合理的全球植物性肉类采用情景,并将其与文献中的生产、效率和价格弹性措施相结合。我们模拟了玉米和大豆的负需求变化及其相关的价格变化分布,相对于没有植物性肉类的基线情景。在低植物性肉类采用率情景下,玉米和大豆价格的预期降幅分别为-13%(4%)和-21%(6%)。对于高采用率情景,玉米和大豆价格分别下降23%(5%)和35%(8%)。这些预测在经济上意义重大。这种规模的永久性冲击与2005-2010年乙醇对玉米价格的强制要求所造成的冲击相当,但在文献中有报道。玉米和大豆生产者在农场和区域层面都面临着技术取代的风险。
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引用次数: 0
Interest Group Responses to Reform Efforts in the U.S. House of Representatives: The Case of Big Sugar 利益集团对美国众议院改革努力的回应:以大糖业为例
Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3941501
K. Grier, Robin M. Grier, Gor Mkrtchian
The US sugar program has long delivered significant subsidies to a concentrated group of sugar growers at the expense of American consumers. In 2013, however, an amendment in the House of Representatives attempted to seriously reduce those subsidies. The amendment narrowly lost. A similar amendment was proposed in 2018. It was voted down as well, but much more handily. In this paper, we show that “Big Sugar” increased real contributions to House incumbents in the interim by more than 50%. Using a district fixed effects logit model, we also show that these contributions significantly raised the probability that the targeted representative would vote against reforming the sugar subsidies. While many argue that money does not directly affect roll-call voting, we believe that in cases where the economic interest is clear and sizeable, and the researcher can use repeat votes to account for district level unobservables, the evidence shows a significant influence of money on votes.
长期以来,美国的制糖计划以牺牲美国消费者的利益为代价,向集中的糖农集团提供了大量补贴。然而,2013年,众议院提出了一项修正案,试图大幅削减这些补贴。修正案以微弱劣势落败。2018年也提出了类似的修正案。它也被否决了,但要轻松得多。在本文中,我们表明,在此期间,“大糖”使众议院现任议员的实际贡献增加了50%以上。使用区域固定效应logit模型,我们还表明,这些贡献显著提高了目标代表投票反对改革糖补贴的概率。虽然许多人认为金钱不会直接影响唱名表决,但我们认为,在经济利益明确且相当大的情况下,研究人员可以使用重复投票来解释地区层面的不可观察性,证据表明金钱对投票有重大影响。
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引用次数: 1
Fishing under the Radar: Illuminating the Compliance Gap of Fishing Bans 在雷达下捕鱼:阐明捕鱼禁令的合规差距
Pub Date : 2021-09-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3871993
Björn Bos
This paper measures the extent of illegal and unreported fishing during the annual Chinese fishing ban and estimates compliance with the ban. We compare compliance estimates using official vessel broadcast positions with a new and more robust measure of fishing activity based on nighttime lights. While the former suggests an average reduction of fishing activity by 90 percent during the ban, we only find a reduction of around half that size when relying on nighttime lights, thereby demonstrating a considerable compliance estimation gap. Further results suggest that attractive income opportunities during the ban hamper compliance.
本文测量了中国年度禁渔令期间非法和未报告捕捞的程度,并估计了禁渔令的执行情况。我们将使用官方船只广播位置的合规估计与基于夜间灯光的新的更可靠的捕捞活动测量进行比较。前者表明,在禁令期间,捕捞活动平均减少了90%,但我们发现,在依赖夜间灯光的情况下,捕捞活动只减少了大约一半,从而显示出相当大的合规估计差距。进一步的结果表明,禁令期间有吸引力的收入机会阻碍了合规。
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引用次数: 1
Rice Tariffication Law through the Lens of the Farmers: A Case in the Municipality of Carmen 农民视角下的大米关税法:以卡门市为例
Pub Date : 2021-09-06 DOI: 10.47772/ijriss.2021.5813
Jake V. Rebualos, Jayson P. Vistal, Shiela Mae B. Sato, Jill C. Cano, James R. Camino, R. Dagohoy
The purpose of the Rice Tariffication Law implementation is to help consumers with rising prices of rice and supporting local farmers. In particular, this research looks on how farmers in the Municipality of Carmen, Davao del Norte perceive and react to the implementation of the Rice Tariffication Law. The qualitative research method was applied in this study. Furthermore, data collection took place in Barangay Ising, Carmen Municipality, Davao del Norte, Philippines. This study employed Snowball sampling was used in this study, which included seven (7) rice farmers in the area who have been cultivating for more than five (5) years. For data collection, the researchers created an interview guide questionnaire. The findings highlighted eleven (11) emerging major themes gleaned from farmers' perspectives on the implementation of the Rice Tariffication Law. The following are the emergent themes generated from the acquired data: 1) Provision of Seeds and Fertilizers, 2) Seminars and Training for Farmers, 3) Calamity Insurance 4) Imbalanced Price Level of Harvested Rice and Farm Inputs, 5) Bureaucratic Red Tape, 6) Conflict Against Imported Rice, 7) Farm Plan, 8) Farm Budgeting, 9) Autarky, 10) Farmer's Outcry to the Government, and 11) Farmer's Perspectives on the Effects of the RTL to the Consumers. The outcomes assist the community and government in comprehending underlying implications of the Rice Tariffication Law on the farmers.
实施《大米关税法》的目的是为了帮助消费者应对大米价格上涨,并支持当地农民。本研究特别关注北部达沃市卡门市的农民如何看待《大米关税法》的实施并作出反应。本研究采用定性研究方法。此外,数据收集工作还在菲律宾北达沃卡门市伊辛村进行。本研究采用雪球抽样,研究对象包括该地区种植水稻超过5年的7名稻农。为了收集数据,研究人员制作了一份访谈指南问卷。调查结果突出了从农民对《大米关税法》实施的看法中收集到的11个新兴主题。以下是从获得的数据中产生的紧急主题:1)种子和肥料的提供,2)农民研讨会和培训,3)灾害保险,4)收获大米和农业投入的价格水平不平衡,5)官僚主义繁文缛节,6)与进口大米的冲突,7)农场计划,8)农场预算,9)自给自足,10)农民对政府的抗议,以及11)农民对RTL对消费者影响的看法。研究结果有助于社区和政府理解《大米关税法》对农民的潜在影响。
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引用次数: 2
Market Timing, Farmer Expectations, and Liquidity Constraints 市场时机、农民预期和流动性约束
Pub Date : 2021-09-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3856672
R. Albuquerque, Bruno C. Araújo, Luis Brandão-Marques, Gerivásia Mosse, Pippy Vletter, Helder Zavale
This paper uses data on farmers' price expectations from a survey of randomly sampled smallholder farmers in Mozambique. Survey data show that across all crops most interviewed farmers expect prices to be higher in the lean season. Yet, farmers report selling most of their output shortly after harvest when prices are lower. We find that higher expected prices and lower current sale prices are associated with increased storage for liquidity constrained farmers versus unconstrained farmers. We develop an intertemporal model of market timing in the presence of liquidity constraints that is consistent with these findings and discuss other model predictions.
本文使用了来自莫桑比克随机抽样的小农调查的农民价格预期数据。调查数据显示,在所有作物中,大多数受访农民预计在淡季价格会更高。然而,农民报告说,在收获后价格较低的时候,他们出售了大部分产品。我们发现,较高的预期价格和较低的当前销售价格与流动性受限的农民相比,流动性受限的农民的储存增加有关。我们开发了一个与这些发现一致的存在流动性约束的市场时机的跨期模型,并讨论了其他模型预测。
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引用次数: 1
Village Fairness Norms and Land Rental Markets 乡村公平规范与土地租赁市场
Pub Date : 2021-08-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3910008
K. Krah, A. Maertens, W. Mhango, H. Michelson, Vesall Nourani
This paper documents the role of village fairness norms in land markets. We establish a strong and robust relationship between experimentally elicited village-level fairness norms and land rental markets across 250 villages in Malawi. Stronger fairness norms correlate with a tighter range in rental rates. Fairness norms for tenants predominate and land-rental price ranges tend to be constrained through a price ceiling. Strong norms correlate with reduced market participation of landlords, and rented-in fields are of lower agronomic quality than owner-cultivated fields. Using nationally-representative secondary data we show that land rental rate adjustments to weather shocks are confined to villages where evidence suggests fairness norms are weak.
本文考察了农村公平规范在土地市场中的作用。我们在马拉维的250个村庄中建立了实验得出的村级公平规范与土地租赁市场之间强有力的关系。更强的公平规范与租金区间更窄相关。对租户的公平规范占主导地位,土地租赁价格范围往往受到价格上限的限制。强规范与地主的市场参与减少相关,并且租赁田的农艺质量低于业主自耕田。我们使用具有全国代表性的二手数据表明,土地租金对天气冲击的调整仅限于有证据表明公平规范薄弱的村庄。
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引用次数: 0
Fetching Pails of Water: Examining Households Choice of Drinking Water Sources in India 取水:调查印度家庭对饮用水源的选择
Pub Date : 2021-08-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3907814
S. Paul
Drinking water is already a scarce resource in India as the estimated per capita availability of freshwater is 1545 m3/year (2011 census) that falls below the benchmark of minimum requirement. As India owns about 16 percent of the world's population as compared to only 4 percent of its water resources, such water stress is likely to assume magnanimous proportions over the coming decade. However, water supply policy in India has a tendency to put more emphasis on supply side measures. To make the water supply initiatives more successful more information is required about preference of the households regarding water source. In this paper we attempt to model the choice of drinking water source in urban India using a nationally representative data of urban households from Indian Human Development Survey (2005). Our results suggest that ability to pay and awareness regarding the benefits of safe water might be the major drivers of exclusion from public water supply networks in India. We also find evidence that media exposure might induce reduction in usage of ground water sources. Given the fact that government has been emphasizing the role of media campaigns for awareness generation regarding safe water and sanitation benefits this finding assures them of the social returns from investments in awareness campaigns.
饮用水在印度已经是一种稀缺资源,据估计,印度人均淡水供应量为1545立方米/年(2011年人口普查),低于最低需求基准。由于印度拥有世界16%的人口,而水资源只占世界的4%,这种水资源压力在未来十年可能会变得非常大。然而,印度的供水政策倾向于更多地强调供应方面的措施。为了使供水倡议更成功,需要更多关于家庭对水源的偏好的信息。在本文中,我们试图利用印度人类发展调查(2005)中具有全国代表性的城市家庭数据,对印度城市饮用水水源的选择进行建模。我们的研究结果表明,支付能力和对安全用水好处的认识可能是印度公共供水网络排斥的主要驱动因素。我们还发现有证据表明,接触媒体可能会导致地下水资源的使用减少。鉴于政府一直强调媒体宣传运动在提高对安全饮水和卫生福利的认识方面的作用,这一发现使它们能够从宣传运动的投资中获得社会回报。
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引用次数: 0
बौद्धिक संपदा अधिकार: औषधी आणि कृषी (Intellectual Property Rights: Medicines & Agriculture)
Pub Date : 2021-08-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3901783
Dr. Rakshit Bagde
Marathi Abstract: 1 जानेवारी 1995 रोजी WTO ची स्थापना होवून भारताने या करारावर सही करून GAAT चा स्विकार केलेला आहे. या करारात मुक्त अर्थव्यवस्थेचा स्विकार करण्यात आलेला असून त्याचाच एक भाग म्हणून बौद्धिक संपदा अधिकाराचा समावेशWTO कारारात करण्यात आलेला आहे. भारताने स्वातंत्र्यानंतर 1948 साली टेकचंद समीती,1957 मध्ये अय्यंगार समीती, 1965 व 1967 मध्ये संयुक्त संसदीय समीती मार्फत पेटंट प्रश्नांचा सखोल अभ्यास करून सन 1970 मध्ये भारतीय पेटंट कायदा तयार केला होता. त्या 1970 च्या कायदîामध्ये बदल करून 2005 मध्ये नविन पेटंट कायदा तयार करण्यात आला, जो 5 मे 2006 पासून सुधारित कायदा म्हणून प्रभावीत आहे. English Abstract: Since the establishment of the WTO on 1 January 1995, India has ratified and ratified the WTO. The agreement recognizes a free economy and includes intellectual property rights as part of the WTO agreement. After India's independence, the Indian Patent Act was enacted in 1970 after a thorough study of patent issues through the Tekchand Committee in 1948, the Iyengar Committee in 1957, and the Joint Parliamentary Committee in 1965 and 1967. New patent law was enacted in 2005 to amend that 1970 law, which has been in force since May 5, 2006.
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引用次数: 0
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Agricultural & Natural Resource Economics eJournal
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