Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy最新文献

We compute corrections for sedentary behavior in physical activity levels (PALs) and incorporate them along with corrections for over estimation of basal metabolic rates (BMRs) into threshold caloric intakes, known as minimum dietary energy requirements (MDERs). Using these modified MDERs, we compute new estimates of food insecure populations using USDA-ERS International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) model for the 83 countries covered by IFSA for 2023. We compute moderate upward biases in MDERs due to sedentarism of 3.52% or 57.49 kcal a day (population-weighted) average, leading to a (pop.-weighted) average 1720 caloric MDER, which translate to large reductions in the estimate of food insecure population of 71.3 million in the IFSA model. With both BMR and PAL corrections, the MDER falls to 1638 kcal on average (pop.-weighted) and the food insecure population estimate falls by 173.6 million. Relative to ERS' 2100-calorie threshold predicting 1.056 billion food-insecure, these corrections would be inflated by 538 million people to 609.4 and 711.7 million reductions. Robustness checks using a lognormal distribution approach with FAO data confirm similar large responses of food-insecure population estimates to the MDER corrections for the same countries. Beyond the correction for systematic upward bias, estimating more precise MDERs will lead to more precise food-insecure estimates.

Food consumption and production have been identified as significant contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. Individual and producer behaviors are critical in making emission-reducing consumption choices and implementing agricultural conservation practices. Using a narrative review approach, this research examined over 100 publications and evaluated behavioral and experimental interventions in consumers' food choices and producers' agricultural conservation decisions. We identify several areas where there is mixed evidence and knowledge gaps. We evaluate these gaps using a framework we devised called CREDIBLE. This systematic framework provides a practical checklist for policymakers and academics to evaluate if their interventions meet critical factors before rolling out large-scale behavioral interventions. The main criteria to evaluate interventions, as proposed by our framework, are as follows: cost-effectiveness, replicability, evidence-based, durability, identity-respecting, boomerang minimizing, logistical feasibility, and respect for ethics.

This paper investigates the effect of mining activities on health care, income and water deprivations in Africa. By combining household data with mining locations, we conducted an econometric analysis to assess the impact of mining on self-reported water security, health, and economic opportunities for 142,838 households. Our study utilizes the presence of active and inactive mines to measure the effects of household exposure to mining activities. We observe that proximity to active mining sites is associated with self-reported improved water security, access to health, and economic opportunities. Instrumental variable estimates support a causal interpretation of our results. Specifically, households located within a 50 km radius of active mines reported a 4% lower probability of lacking clean water. Our findings also reveal that robust local institutions not only enhance water security but also mitigate the negative health impacts associated with mine closures. These results suggest that strengthening local governance can amplify the potential benefits of mining operations. Therefore, we recommend the strengthening of local government institutions to foster the resilience of vulnerable mining communities.

Given ongoing dysfunction of the World Trade Organization's Appellate Body, the focus of this article is on the future of trade dispute resolution, with evaluation of two questions: (i) What is the current status of WTO dispute resolution as compared to that conducted through existing preferential trade agreements (PTAs)? and (ii) What are the evolving approaches of the United States and EU to trade policy/trade dispute resolution? The overall conclusion is that, by applying “power-based” bargaining to a broad range of trade policy issues, the United States is contributing to increased trade policy uncertainty.

We analyze the distribution of maximum residue limits (MRLs) on veterinary drugs used in animal production and aquaculture in a global context of food consumption and trade. We compare MRLs by drug-product pairs for a large set of countries, commodities, and drugs. International standards by Codex cover a small fraction (27%) of existing drug-product pairs. When Codex MRLs exist, deviations from Codex MRLs are minimal. Little protectionism prevails overall, although countries with a larger presence in world markets and with larger net imports in the regulated commodity have stricter standards. Higher variation prevails when Codex standards do not exist. MRLs exhibit an anti-protectionist lower tail that is fatter than that of those MRLs for which Codex has a standard. Increasing the institutional capacity of Codex Alimentarius for establishing a larger set of MRLs is likely to facilitate greater alignment of MRLs across countries. We highlight the leading regulatory roles of Codex, the European Union, and the United States in helping set MRLs for other countries to which 41, 6, and 5 countries fully defer, respectively.

Food standards are rising in both prevalence and stringency. They protect consumers and may enhance demand stability but also pose compliance challenges to producers, with ambiguous effects on the stability of trade relationships. We analyze the impact of importers' Maximum Residue Levels (MRLs) along with bilateral MRL dissimilarity between trade partners, on trade duration and volatility. We find that stricter MRLs in importing countries enhance trade stability, whereas MRL dissimilarities reduce it. The results suggest that importers with less strict MRLs than their trade partners can improve trade stability by reducing MRL dissimilarities. However, when importers have stricter MRLs, they might face a trade-off between the benefits of lowering discrepancies for trade stability and the downsides of reduced stringency for food safety.

Understanding poverty dynamics is crucial to target and tailor economic policies in developing countries like Nigeria—a country at the risk of hosting about a quarter of all people living in poverty worldwide. To facilitate the targeting of poverty-reducing interventions, we build a nationally representative panel dataset spanning 2011–2019 with more than a hundred covariates and apply econometric and machine learning tools to predict and examine factors associated with the static, transient, and persistent poverty status of Nigerian households. Results show that demographic factors, asset holdings, access to infrastructure, and housing indicators can accurately predict poverty in 80% of cases.

Extreme weather events are worsening the fragile rural infrastructure in the United States, impacting trade flows of agricultural products. The Mississippi River, vital for transporting agricultural commodities, reached historic lows during the 2022 and 2023 fall harvests, increasing transportation costs and lowering crop prices. This paper estimates the cost of these drought events by analyzing Arkansas soybean basis data and Mississippi River stream gauge data. Low river levels significantly weaken soybean prices, with the impact being a function of a grain market's distance to a river port. Findings have implications for public policy investment in rural infrastructure and risk management strategies.

This article explores two interrelated issues: (i) investigating the socioeconomic factors influencing the adoption of mixed cropping, irrespective of the crop combinations chosen by farmers across different seasons, and (ii) evaluating the role of mixed cropping in adapting to extreme delays in monsoon onset. Utilizing a panel data fixed effects regression framework, the study highlights that household-level factors, including area under cultivation, irrigated land, participation in agricultural organizations, and nonfarm income, significantly drive the adoption of mixed cropping. The Correlated Random Effects model findings reveal that although mixed cropping does not have a substantial impact on average revenue, it is effective in reducing crop losses caused by extreme delays in monsoon onset. Adopting such practices can enhance food security and mitigate the effects of weather shocks.

Literature examining the effects of changes in trade agreements and import competition on US employment and wages has focused primarily on non-agricultural industries and changes in US import tariffs. We propose a method for measuring worker exposure to changes in agricultural tariffs using a newly developed county-level dataset of employment shares by crop and livestock type. We apply the method to examine the spatial concentration of US county-level employment-weighted exposure to changes in tariffs caused by the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Results reveal noteworthy decreases in average US county-level crop and livestock employment exposure to Mexican import tariffs on US products. Findings also show spatial variation in US employment exposure to changes in Mexican import tariffs on US agricultural and non-agricultural goods. Changes in county-level employment exposure to US and Canadian import tariffs after NAFTA implementation are relatively minor given low initial tariff rates prior to the agreement.