The rapid progress of highly efficient thermal systems necessitates the development of novel cooling and heat transfer fluids that exceed the constraints of traditional and basic nanofluids. An investigation into the heat transfer and unsteady three-dimensional saddle-point stagnation flow of a water-based tetra-hybrid nanofluid including graphene nanoplatelets (GNP), Al₂O₃, CuO, and TiO₂ is underway in this work. The model assumes transverse magnetic field, thermal radiation, viscous dissipation, suction, Joule heating, and entropy generation in incompressible laminar flow. The governing boundary layer equations are reformulated using similarity variables and solved numerically using MATLAB’s bvp4c solver. The analysis scrutinizes the impacts of unsteadiness, radiation, magnetic field intensity, mixed convection, nanoparticle volume fraction, Brinkman and Eckert numbers, and suction on velocity, temperature, skin friction, Nusselt number, and entropy generation. According to the results, the tetra-hybrid nanofluid has better skin friction and heat transfer than the mono and hybrid nanofluids because of its higher viscosity and effective thermal conductivity. Furthermore, entropy generation escalates with more robust dissipative and radiative processes. Overall, the study finds, tetra-hybrid nanofluids show promise for high-performance thermal management and energy-efficient systems.
{"title":"Numerical computation of unsteady saddle-point flow of water-based tetra-hybrid nanofluid with mass suction and entropy generation analysis","authors":"Khadija Rafique, Zafar Mahmood, Asamaa Abd-Elmonem, Nesreen Sirelkhtam Elmki Abdalla, Ioan-Lucian Popa, Abhinav Kumar","doi":"10.1007/s13201-026-02757-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13201-026-02757-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The rapid progress of highly efficient thermal systems necessitates the development of novel cooling and heat transfer fluids that exceed the constraints of traditional and basic nanofluids. An investigation into the heat transfer and unsteady three-dimensional saddle-point stagnation flow of a water-based tetra-hybrid nanofluid including graphene nanoplatelets (GNP), Al₂O₃, CuO, and TiO₂ is underway in this work. The model assumes transverse magnetic field, thermal radiation, viscous dissipation, suction, Joule heating, and entropy generation in incompressible laminar flow. The governing boundary layer equations are reformulated using similarity variables and solved numerically using MATLAB’s bvp4c solver. The analysis scrutinizes the impacts of unsteadiness, radiation, magnetic field intensity, mixed convection, nanoparticle volume fraction, Brinkman and Eckert numbers, and suction on velocity, temperature, skin friction, Nusselt number, and entropy generation. According to the results, the tetra-hybrid nanofluid has better skin friction and heat transfer than the mono and hybrid nanofluids because of its higher viscosity and effective thermal conductivity. Furthermore, entropy generation escalates with more robust dissipative and radiative processes. Overall, the study finds, tetra-hybrid nanofluids show promise for high-performance thermal management and energy-efficient systems.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8374,"journal":{"name":"Applied Water Science","volume":"16 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s13201-026-02757-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147336017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01DOI: 10.1007/s13201-026-02776-3
Ahmed Elbeltagi, Aman Srivastava, Durba Kashyap, Leena Khadke, Dinesh Kumar Vishwakarma, Tripti Agarwal
Traditional methods for estimating water footprints for rice production are often time-consuming and resource-intensive, highlighting the need for efficient and accurate predictive models. This study addresses this gap by evaluating the performance of seven machine learning models—Linear Regression (LR), M5P, Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), Sequential Minimal Optimization – Support Vector Machine (SMO-SVM), Random SubSpace (RSS), Random Forest (RF), and Random Tree (RT)—in predicting the green and blue water footprints of rice in Punjab, India. Best subset regression and correlation matrix indicate that humidity, wind speed, sunshine hours, solar radiation, and total rainfall are optimal inputs for green water footprint prediction, while maximum temperature, humidity, wind speed, sunshine hours, and solar radiation are best for blue water footprint prediction. The RT model outperformed others in that, for green water footprint prediction, it achieved a correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.9991, mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.1314, root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.4553, relative absolute error (RAE) of 0.0477, and root relative squared error (RRSE) of 0.1283 during the training stage. However, during the testing stage, the RF model performed better (CC = 0.79, MAE = 154.2732, RMSE = 192.3973, RAE = 55.5602, and RRSE = 58.6433). For blue water footprint prediction, the RT model remained the best performer in both stages (training: CC = 0.9991; testing: CC = 0.9981, MAE = 0.7920, RMSE = 0.8583, RAE = 0.4440, and RRSE = 0.8290). These results suggest that machine learning can effectively support water management strategies by providing quick and reliable estimates of water footprints, which is crucial for sustainable rice production. By utilizing these models, policymakers can make informed decisions to optimize water usage and ensure sustainable agricultural practices.
估算水稻生产水足迹的传统方法往往耗时且资源密集,因此需要高效和准确的预测模型。本研究通过评估七个机器学习模型——线性回归(LR)、M5P、多层感知器(MLP)、顺序最小优化支持向量机(smoo - svm)、随机子空间(RSS)、随机森林(RF)和随机树(RT)——在预测印度旁遮普水稻的绿色和蓝色水足迹方面的性能,解决了这一差距。最佳子集回归和相关矩阵表明,湿度、风速、日照时数、太阳辐射和总降雨量是绿水足迹预测的最佳输入,而最高温度、湿度、风速、日照时数和太阳辐射是蓝水足迹预测的最佳输入。在绿色水足迹预测方面,RT模型在训练阶段的相关系数(CC)为0.9991,平均绝对误差(MAE)为0.1314,均方根误差(RMSE)为0.4553,相对绝对误差(RAE)为0.0477,根相对平方误差(RRSE)为0.1283。然而,在测试阶段,RF模型表现更好(CC = 0.79, MAE = 154.2732, RMSE = 192.3973, RAE = 55.5602, RRSE = 58.6433)。对于蓝水足迹预测,RT模型在两个阶段的表现都是最好的(训练:CC = 0.9991,测试:CC = 0.9981, MAE = 0.7920, RMSE = 0.8583, RAE = 0.4440, RRSE = 0.8290)。这些结果表明,机器学习可以通过提供快速可靠的水足迹估计来有效地支持水管理策略,这对可持续水稻生产至关重要。通过利用这些模型,决策者可以做出明智的决策,以优化用水并确保可持续的农业实践。
{"title":"Assessment of machine learning models to forecast water footprints of rice production","authors":"Ahmed Elbeltagi, Aman Srivastava, Durba Kashyap, Leena Khadke, Dinesh Kumar Vishwakarma, Tripti Agarwal","doi":"10.1007/s13201-026-02776-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13201-026-02776-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Traditional methods for estimating water footprints for rice production are often time-consuming and resource-intensive, highlighting the need for efficient and accurate predictive models. This study addresses this gap by evaluating the performance of seven machine learning models—Linear Regression (LR), M5P, Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), Sequential Minimal Optimization – Support Vector Machine (SMO-SVM), Random SubSpace (RSS), Random Forest (RF), and Random Tree (RT)—in predicting the green and blue water footprints of rice in Punjab, India. Best subset regression and correlation matrix indicate that humidity, wind speed, sunshine hours, solar radiation, and total rainfall are optimal inputs for green water footprint prediction, while maximum temperature, humidity, wind speed, sunshine hours, and solar radiation are best for blue water footprint prediction. The RT model outperformed others in that, for green water footprint prediction, it achieved a correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.9991, mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.1314, root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.4553, relative absolute error (RAE) of 0.0477, and root relative squared error (RRSE) of 0.1283 during the training stage. However, during the testing stage, the RF model performed better (CC = 0.79, MAE = 154.2732, RMSE = 192.3973, RAE = 55.5602, and RRSE = 58.6433). For blue water footprint prediction, the RT model remained the best performer in both stages (training: CC = 0.9991; testing: CC = 0.9981, MAE = 0.7920, RMSE = 0.8583, RAE = 0.4440, and RRSE = 0.8290). These results suggest that machine learning can effectively support water management strategies by providing quick and reliable estimates of water footprints, which is crucial for sustainable rice production. By utilizing these models, policymakers can make informed decisions to optimize water usage and ensure sustainable agricultural practices.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8374,"journal":{"name":"Applied Water Science","volume":"16 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s13201-026-02776-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147359951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The sustainability of water resource systems in arid regions plays a pivotal role in regional ecological security and socio-economic development. A scientific elucidation of their state evolution provides a critical foundation for water resources management decision-making. To address the assessment bias inherent in traditional static fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, which arises from the difficulty of fixed weights in effectively characterizing interannual variations in indicators and the impacts of extreme climate events, this study proposes an innovative fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on threshold-directed dynamic reward-penalty weighting. Using the Shule River Basin in northwestern China (2005–2023) as a case study, a threshold-based indicator system comprising five subsystems and 30 indicators was established. Initial indicator weights were determined via the entropy weight method, and a dynamic reward-penalty weighting function was constructed to enable real-time weight adaptation to system states. This dynamically adjusted framework was integrated with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for system scoring, followed by a comparative analysis against conventional static fuzzy comprehensive evaluation results. Key results demonstrate that: (1) The threshold-directed dynamic reward-penalty mechanism significantly enhanced weight adaptability. For instance, a sharp 71.1 percent decline in precipitation in 2020 triggered a 33.2 percent increase in the dynamic weight of this indicator compared to its entropy weight. Conversely, in the same year, the ecological-environmental water use ratio exceeding its threshold by 27 percent resulted in a 52.9 percent reduction in its dynamic weight, thereby precisely quantifying the temporal effects of drought impact and policy intervention. (2) Subsystem scores exhibited dynamic differentiation: The socioeconomic water use subsystem exhibited the highest mean score, while significant interannual fluctuations were observed in the agricultural water use and food security subsystem and the ecosystem health and sustainability subsystem, collectively revealing the stability of regional water use structure and the heightened sensitivity of ecological and agricultural systems to climate fluctuations. (3) The basin's comprehensive water resources system score evolved through three distinct phases: a slow ascent phase (2005–2008), a fluctuating rise phase (2009–2017), and a high-quality development phase (2018–2023). This trajectory confirms the presence of a compound regulatory mechanism within the Shule River Basin's water resources system, characterized by "ecological hysteresis, policy-driven interventions, and technical compensation". This study establishes a novel dynamic analytical framework for assessing arid region water resource systems, substantiated the methodological advantage of this dynamic weighting approach in the non-stationary environments typical of arid zones.
{"title":"Development and application of a water resource assessment model with threshold-directed dynamic reward-penalty weighting in arid regions: a case study of the Shule River Basin, Northwest China","authors":"Lanzhen Wu, Chen Qian, Dongyuan Sun, Xingfan Wang, Xia Zhao, Yanjun Shen","doi":"10.1007/s13201-026-02806-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13201-026-02806-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The sustainability of water resource systems in arid regions plays a pivotal role in regional ecological security and socio-economic development. A scientific elucidation of their state evolution provides a critical foundation for water resources management decision-making. To address the assessment bias inherent in traditional static fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, which arises from the difficulty of fixed weights in effectively characterizing interannual variations in indicators and the impacts of extreme climate events, this study proposes an innovative fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on threshold-directed dynamic reward-penalty weighting. Using the Shule River Basin in northwestern China (2005–2023) as a case study, a threshold-based indicator system comprising five subsystems and 30 indicators was established. Initial indicator weights were determined via the entropy weight method, and a dynamic reward-penalty weighting function was constructed to enable real-time weight adaptation to system states. This dynamically adjusted framework was integrated with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for system scoring, followed by a comparative analysis against conventional static fuzzy comprehensive evaluation results. Key results demonstrate that: (1) The threshold-directed dynamic reward-penalty mechanism significantly enhanced weight adaptability. For instance, a sharp 71.1 percent decline in precipitation in 2020 triggered a 33.2 percent increase in the dynamic weight of this indicator compared to its entropy weight. Conversely, in the same year, the ecological-environmental water use ratio exceeding its threshold by 27 percent resulted in a 52.9 percent reduction in its dynamic weight, thereby precisely quantifying the temporal effects of drought impact and policy intervention. (2) Subsystem scores exhibited dynamic differentiation: The socioeconomic water use subsystem exhibited the highest mean score, while significant interannual fluctuations were observed in the agricultural water use and food security subsystem and the ecosystem health and sustainability subsystem, collectively revealing the stability of regional water use structure and the heightened sensitivity of ecological and agricultural systems to climate fluctuations. (3) The basin's comprehensive water resources system score evolved through three distinct phases: a slow ascent phase (2005–2008), a fluctuating rise phase (2009–2017), and a high-quality development phase (2018–2023). This trajectory confirms the presence of a compound regulatory mechanism within the Shule River Basin's water resources system, characterized by \"ecological hysteresis, policy-driven interventions, and technical compensation\". This study establishes a novel dynamic analytical framework for assessing arid region water resource systems, substantiated the methodological advantage of this dynamic weighting approach in the non-stationary environments typical of arid zones.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8374,"journal":{"name":"Applied Water Science","volume":"16 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s13201-026-02806-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147359952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01DOI: 10.1007/s13201-025-02745-2
Minge Yang, Yin Lin, Junyi He
Water pollution caused by heavy metals and dyes has emerged as a pressing global issue due to their adverse effects on human health and ecosystems. In this study, magnetic zeolite nanocomposite (Fe3O4–NaA) was employed as an efficient magnetic adsorbent to remove cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), malachite green (MG), and methylene blue (MB) from aqueous solutions. The Fe3O4–NaA adsorbent was synthesized and characterized through scanning electron microscopy (SEM), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), and X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis. The results confirmed nanostructure, high surface area, and high adsorption capacity of this adsorbent. The point of zero charge (pHpzc) of the Fe3O4–NaA was determined to be 6.2, demonstrating its versatility for various pH ranges. Process optimization was conducted using a central composite design (CCD) matrix combined with response surface methodology (RSM) to evaluate the influence of key factors, including solution pH, Fe3O4–NaA nanocomposite amount, ultrasonic time, and initial analyte concentration. The optimal conditions (Fe3O4–NaA nanocomposite amount of 0.04 g, pH of 7, initial analyte concentration of 17 mg L-1, and ultrasound time of 16 min) resulted in removal efficiencies ranging from 91.11% to 96.09%. Reusability tests revealed that the Fe3O4–NaA adsorbent retained high performance over 5 adsorption/desorption cycles, with hydrochloric acid identified as the most effective eluent for regeneration. The efficacy of Fe3O4–NaA nanocomposite was further validated using real water samples, where it successfully removed contaminants with high efficiency. These findings highlight the potential of Fe3O4–NaA nanocomposites as cost-effective and environmentally-friendly adsorbents for the remediation of contaminated water.
{"title":"Optimization of heavy metals and dyes removal from aqueous solutions by magnetic zeolite nanocomposite using central composite design","authors":"Minge Yang, Yin Lin, Junyi He","doi":"10.1007/s13201-025-02745-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13201-025-02745-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Water pollution caused by heavy metals and dyes has emerged as a pressing global issue due to their adverse effects on human health and ecosystems. In this study, magnetic zeolite nanocomposite (Fe<sub>3</sub>O<sub>4</sub>–NaA) was employed as an efficient magnetic adsorbent to remove cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), malachite green (MG), and methylene blue (MB) from aqueous solutions. The Fe<sub>3</sub>O<sub>4</sub>–NaA adsorbent was synthesized and characterized through scanning electron microscopy (SEM), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), and X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis. The results confirmed nanostructure, high surface area, and high adsorption capacity of this adsorbent. The point of zero charge (pH<sub>pzc</sub>) of the Fe<sub>3</sub>O<sub>4</sub>–NaA was determined to be 6.2, demonstrating its versatility for various pH ranges. Process optimization was conducted using a central composite design (CCD) matrix combined with response surface methodology (RSM) to evaluate the influence of key factors, including solution pH, Fe<sub>3</sub>O<sub>4</sub>–NaA nanocomposite amount, ultrasonic time, and initial analyte concentration. The optimal conditions (Fe<sub>3</sub>O<sub>4</sub>–NaA nanocomposite amount of 0.04 g, pH of 7, initial analyte concentration of 17 mg L<sup>-1</sup>, and ultrasound time of 16 min) resulted in removal efficiencies ranging from 91.11% to 96.09%. Reusability tests revealed that the Fe<sub>3</sub>O<sub>4</sub>–NaA adsorbent retained high performance over 5 adsorption/desorption cycles, with hydrochloric acid identified as the most effective eluent for regeneration. The efficacy of Fe<sub>3</sub>O<sub>4</sub>–NaA nanocomposite was further validated using real water samples, where it successfully removed contaminants with high efficiency. These findings highlight the potential of Fe<sub>3</sub>O<sub>4</sub>–NaA nanocomposites as cost-effective and environmentally-friendly adsorbents for the remediation of contaminated water.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8374,"journal":{"name":"Applied Water Science","volume":"16 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s13201-025-02745-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147336277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The increasing presence of emerging contaminants in water sources, including antibiotics and pharmaceuticals, poses a significant threat to human health and the environment. Effective removal of these pollutants remains a challenge, particularly with the growing demand for high-quality water. This study explores the use of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) non-covalently functionalized with poly[ (m-phenylenevinylene)-alt- (p-phenylenevinylene)] (PmPV) to enhance the adsorption and removal of Nitroimidazole and Tetracycline antibiotics from water. Molecular dynamics and metadynamics simulations were employed to examine the interaction mechanisms, structural stability, and adsorption behavior of these hybrid systems. The results demonstrate that non-covalent functionalization significantly enhances CNT solubility and adsorption efficiency, primarily through van der Waals and electrostatic interactions. According to the computed energies, the adsorption energy of metronidazole antibiotic molecules, at -372.03 kJ/mol, and tetracycline antibiotic molecules, at -282.57 kJ/mol, are among the highest in their respective classes (Nitroimidazole and Tetracycline antibiotics). This study provides a theoretical basis for developing efficient CNT-based water treatment technologies, emphasizing the potential of PmPV-functionalized CNTs in environmental applications.
{"title":"Enhancing water quality: using non-covalently functionalized carbon nanotubes for antibiotic removal","authors":"Sedigheh Abdollahi, Heidar Raissi, Farzaneh Farzad","doi":"10.1007/s13201-026-02796-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13201-026-02796-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The increasing presence of emerging contaminants in water sources, including antibiotics and pharmaceuticals, poses a significant threat to human health and the environment. Effective removal of these pollutants remains a challenge, particularly with the growing demand for high-quality water. This study explores the use of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) non-covalently functionalized with poly[ (m-phenylenevinylene)-alt- (p-phenylenevinylene)] (PmPV) to enhance the adsorption and removal of Nitroimidazole and Tetracycline antibiotics from water. Molecular dynamics and metadynamics simulations were employed to examine the interaction mechanisms, structural stability, and adsorption behavior of these hybrid systems. The results demonstrate that non-covalent functionalization significantly enhances CNT solubility and adsorption efficiency, primarily through van der Waals and electrostatic interactions. According to the computed energies, the adsorption energy of metronidazole antibiotic molecules, at -372.03 kJ/mol, and tetracycline antibiotic molecules, at -282.57 kJ/mol, are among the highest in their respective classes (Nitroimidazole and Tetracycline antibiotics). This study provides a theoretical basis for developing efficient CNT-based water treatment technologies, emphasizing the potential of PmPV-functionalized CNTs in environmental applications.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8374,"journal":{"name":"Applied Water Science","volume":"16 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s13201-026-02796-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147342792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate change in Iran is significant, as reduced rainfall adversely affects both biological and social systems. This study aims to long-term predict rainfall changes based on social and economic scenarios from the sixth climate change report (Hist_SSP126_SSP245_SSP585) in the Kermanshah synoptic station. Different machine learning models, have been employed to analyze data from three CMIP6 public circulation models. These models are well-established for classification and prediction tasks. The ML-based downscaling models will estimate monthly rainfall for three time periods: 2026–2050, 2051–2075, and 2076–2100. These predictions will be made under three different scenarios: SSP1, SSP2, and SSP5. Historical monthly rainfall data from a Kermanshah station (1990–2014) have been divided for model training and testing. The models were checked and adjusted using MAE, MSE, RMSE, R², and NSE to see how well they performed. Results show no significant changes in the prediction results for SVR and RF models, with the best climate models varying by region. In all scenarios, the CANESM5 model closely matches the Random Forest predictions. Projected declines in annual rainfall range from 31% to 33% across scenarios and periods, with a multi-scenario average of 32% by 2100.
{"title":"Assessing the impact of climate change on rainfall patterns in Kermanshah, Iran: a machine learning approach","authors":"Arina Almasi, Seyed Ehsan Fatemi, Afshin Eghbalzadeh","doi":"10.1007/s13201-026-02768-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13201-026-02768-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate change in Iran is significant, as reduced rainfall adversely affects both biological and social systems. This study aims to long-term predict rainfall changes based on social and economic scenarios from the sixth climate change report (Hist_SSP126_SSP245_SSP585) in the Kermanshah synoptic station. Different machine learning models, have been employed to analyze data from three CMIP6 public circulation models. These models are well-established for classification and prediction tasks. The ML-based downscaling models will estimate monthly rainfall for three time periods: 2026–2050, 2051–2075, and 2076–2100. These predictions will be made under three different scenarios: SSP1, SSP2, and SSP5. Historical monthly rainfall data from a Kermanshah station (1990–2014) have been divided for model training and testing. The models were checked and adjusted using MAE, MSE, RMSE, R², and NSE to see how well they performed. Results show no significant changes in the prediction results for SVR and RF models, with the best climate models varying by region. In all scenarios, the CANESM5 model closely matches the Random Forest predictions. Projected declines in annual rainfall range from 31% to 33% across scenarios and periods, with a multi-scenario average of 32% by 2100.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8374,"journal":{"name":"Applied Water Science","volume":"16 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s13201-026-02768-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147342389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}