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Precipitation Characteristics and Mechanisms over Sri Lanka against the Background of the Western Indian Ocean: 1981–2020 西印度洋背景下斯里兰卡上空的降水特征和机制:1981-2020 年
IF 2.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-12 DOI: 10.3390/atmos15080962
Dan Ye, Xin Wang, Yong Han, Yurong Zhang, Li Dong, Hao Luo, Xinxin Xie, Danya Xu
In the current environment of climate change, the precipitation situation of marine islands is particularly valued. So, this study explores precipitation characteristics and mechanisms over Sri Lanka in the background of the western Indian Ocean using satellite and reanalysis datasets based on 40 years (from 1981 to 2020). The results show that the highest precipitation occurs between October and December, accounting for 46.3% of the entire year. The Indian Ocean sea surface temperature warming after 2002 significantly influences precipitation patterns. Particularly during the Second Inter-Monsoon, the western Indian Ocean warming induces an east–west zonal sea surface temperature gradient, leading to low-level circulation and westerly wind anomalies. This, in turn, results in increased precipitation in Sri Lanka between October and December. This study used the Trend-Free Pre-Whitening Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator to study nine extreme precipitation indices, identifying a significant upward trend in extreme precipitation events in the Jaffna, arid northern Sri Lanka, peaking on 9 November 2021. This extreme event is due to the influence of weather systems like the Siberian High and intense convective activities, transporting substantial moisture to Jaffna from the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea, and the Bay of Bengal during winter. The findings highlight the impact of sea surface temperature warming anomalies in the western Indian Ocean and extreme precipitation events, anticipated to be more accentuated during Sri Lanka’s monsoon season. This research provides valuable insights into the variability of tropical precipitation, offering a scientific basis for the sustainable development of marine islands.
在当前气候变化的大环境下,海洋岛屿的降水状况尤为重要。因此,本研究利用基于 40 年(从 1981 年到 2020 年)的卫星和再分析数据集,探讨了西印度洋背景下斯里兰卡的降水特征和机制。结果表明,10 月至 12 月降水量最大,占全年降水量的 46.3%。2002 年后印度洋海面温度变暖对降水模式产生了显著影响。特别是在第二个季风间歇期,西印度洋变暖引起东西向地带性海面温度梯度,导致低层环流和西风异常。这反过来又导致斯里兰卡 10 月至 12 月降水量增加。本研究利用无趋势预灰化曼-肯德尔检验和森斜率估算器研究了九个极端降水指数,发现斯里兰卡北部干旱地区贾夫纳的极端降水事件呈显著上升趋势,并在 2021 年 11 月 9 日达到峰值。这一极端事件是由于西伯利亚高纬度和强对流活动等天气系统的影响,在冬季将大量水汽从印度洋、阿拉伯海和孟加拉湾输送到贾夫纳。研究结果突显了西印度洋海面温度变暖异常和极端降水事件的影响,预计在斯里兰卡季风季节会更加突出。这项研究为了解热带降水的多变性提供了宝贵的见解,为海洋岛屿的可持续发展提供了科学依据。
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引用次数: 0
Environmental Policies and Countermeasures for the Phase-Out of Ozone-Depleting Substances (ODSs) over the Last 30 Years: A Case Study in Taiwan 过去 30 年逐步淘汰消耗臭氧层物质 (ODS) 的环境政策与对策:台湾案例研究
IF 2.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-12 DOI: 10.3390/atmos15080961
Wen-Tien Tsai
It is well established that the reaction cycles involving some halogenated alkanes (so-called ozone-depleting substances—ODSs) contribute to the depletion of ozone in the stratosphere, prompting the Montreal Protocol (initially signed in 1987), and later amendments. The Protocol called for the scheduled phase-out of ODSs, including chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), carbon tetrachloride (CCl4), halon, methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3), methyl chloride (CH3Cl), and even hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). In view of the urgent importance of ozone layer protection to the global ecological environment, the Taiwanese government has taken regulatory actions to reduce ODS consumption since 1993, through the joint venture of the central competent authorities. Under the government’s regulatory requirements, and the industry’s efforts to adopt both alternatives to ODSs and abatement technologies, the phase-out of some ODSs (i.e., CFCs, CCl4, halon, and CH3CCl3) was achieved prior to 2010. The consumption of HCFCs and methyl chloride has significantly declined over the past three decades (1993–2022). However, HFC emissions indicated a V-type variation during this period. Due to local production and extensive use of HFCs in Taiwan, the country’s emissions increased from 663 kilotons of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2eq) in 1993 to 2330 kilotons of CO2eq in 2001, and then decreased to 373 kilotons of CO2eq in 2011. Since then, the emissions of HFCs largely used as the alternatives to ODSs showed an upward trend, increasing to 1555 kilotons of CO2eq in 2022. To be in compliance with the Kigali Amendment (KA-2015) to the Montreal Protocol for mitigating global warming, the Taiwanese government has taken regulatory actions to reduce the consumption of some HFC substances with high global warming potential (GWP) under the authorization of the Climate Change Response Act in 2023, aiming at an 80% reduction by 2045 of the baseline consumption in 2024.
众所周知,涉及某些卤化烷烃(即所谓的消耗臭氧层物质)的反应循环会导致平流层中臭氧的消耗,这促使《蒙特利尔议定书》(最初于 1987 年签署)以及后来的修正案出台。该议定书要求按计划淘汰消耗臭氧层物质,包括氯氟化碳(CFCs)、氯氟烃(HCFCs)、四氯化碳(CCl4)、哈龙、甲基氯仿(CH3CCl3)、氯甲烷(CH3Cl),甚至氢氟碳化物(HFCs)。鉴于保护臭氧层对全球生态环境的迫切重要性,台湾政府自 1993 年起通过中央主管当局的联合行动,采取了减少消耗臭氧层物质消费的监管行动。在政府的监管要求下,以及业界采用消耗臭氧层物质替代品和减排技术的努力下,部分消耗臭氧层物质(即氟氯化碳、四氯化碳、哈龙和三氯氯甲烷)在 2010 年前实现了淘汰。过去三十年(1993-2022 年),氟氯烃和甲基氯的消费量大幅下降。然而,氢氟碳化物的排放量在此期间呈现 V 型变化。由于 HFCs 在台湾的本地生产和广泛使用,台湾的排放量从 1993 年的 663 千吨二氧化碳当量(CO2eq)增至 2001 年的 2330 千吨二氧化碳当量(CO2eq),然后降至 2011 年的 373 千吨二氧化碳当量(CO2eq)。此后,主要用作消耗臭氧层物质替代品的氢氟碳化物的排放量呈上升趋势,到 2022 年增至 1555 千吨二氧化碳当量。为遵守《蒙特利尔议定书》关于减缓全球变暖的《基加利修正案》(KA-2015),台湾政府已于 2023 年根据《气候变化应对法》的授权采取监管行动,减少一些具有高全球变暖潜势(GWP)的 HFC 物质的消费量,目标是到 2045 年将 2024 年的基准消费量减少 80%。
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引用次数: 0
The Application of an Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research Model in the Forecasting of the Henan 21.7 Rainstorm 中复杂度大气研究模式在河南 21.7 暴雨预报中的应用
IF 2.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-12 DOI: 10.3390/atmos15080959
Xingbao Wang, Qun Xu, Xiajun Deng, Hongjie Zhang, Qianhong Tang, Tingting Zhou, Fengcai Qi, Wenwu Peng
To improve the forecast accuracy of heavy precipitation, re-forecasts are conducted for the Henan 21.7 rainstorm. The Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research Model (ICAR) and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) with a 1 km horizontal grid spacing are used for the re-forecasts. The results indicate that heavy precipitation forecasted by ICAR primarily accumulates on the windward slopes of the mountains. In contrast, some severe precipitation forecasted by WRF is beyond the mountains. The main difference between ICAR and WRF is that ICAR excludes the “impacts of physical processes on winds and the nonlinear interactions between the small resolvable-scale disturbances” (briefed as the “physical–dynamical interactions”). Thus, heavy precipitation beyond the mountains is attributed to the “physical–dynamical interactions”. Furthermore, severe precipitation on the windward slopes of the mountains typically aligns with the observations, whereas heavy rainfall beyond the mountains seldom matches the observations. Therefore, severe precipitation on the windward slopes of (beyond) the mountains is more (less) predictable. Based on these findings and theoretical thinking about the predictability of severe precipitation, a scheme of using the ICAR’s prediction to adjust the WRF’s prediction is proposed, thereby improving the forecast accuracy of heavy rainfall.
为了提高强降水预报的准确性,对河南 21.7 暴雨进行了再预报。重新预报采用了中等复杂程度大气研究模式(ICAR)和水平网格间距为 1 公里的天气研究和预报模式(WRF)。结果表明,ICAR 预测的强降水主要聚集在山区的迎风坡。相比之下,WRF 预报的一些强降水则在山脉之外。ICAR 与 WRF 的主要区别在于 ICAR 排除了 "物理过程对风的影响以及可分辨的小尺度扰动之间的非线性相互作用"(简称为 "物理-动力相互作用")。因此,山区以外的强降水归因于 "物理-动力相互作用"。此外,山区迎风坡的强降水通常与观测结果一致,而山区以外的强降水则很少与观测结果一致。因此,山地迎风坡(山地以外)的强降水可预测性更高(更低)。基于这些发现和对强降水可预测性的理论思考,提出了利用 ICAR 预报来调整 WRF 预报的方案,从而提高强降水的预报精度。
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引用次数: 0
Relative Homogenization of Climatic Time Series 气候时间序列的相对同质化
IF 2.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-11 DOI: 10.3390/atmos15080957
Peter Domonkos
Homogenization of the time series of observed climatic data aims to remove non-climatic biases caused by technical changes during the history of the climate observations. The spatial redundancy of climate information helps to recognize station-specific inhomogeneities with statistical methods, but the correct detection and removal of inhomogeneity biases is generally not easy for the combined effects of individual inhomogeneities. In a homogenization procedure, several time series of a given climatic variable observed in one climatic region are usually homogenized together via a large number of spatial comparisons between them. Such procedures are called relative homogenization. A relative homogenization procedure may include one or more homogenization cycles where a cycle includes the steps of time series comparison, inhomogeneity detection and corrections for inhomogeneities, and they may include other steps like the filtering of outlier values or spatial interpolations for infilling data gaps. Relative homogenization methods differ according to the number and content of the individual homogenization cycles, the procedure for the time series comparisons, the statistical inhomogeneity detection method, the way of the inhomogeneity bias removal, among other specifics. Efficient homogenization needs the use of tested statistical methods to be included in partly or fully automated homogenization procedures. Due to the large number and high variety of homogenization experiments fulfilled in the Spanish MULTITEST project (2015–2017), its method comparison test results are still the most informative about the efficiencies of homogenization methods in use. This study presents a brief review of the advances in relative homogenization, recalls some key results of the MULTITEST project, and analyzes some theoretical aspects of successful homogenization.
对观测到的气候数据时间序列进行同质化处理,目的是消除气候观测历史上技术变化造成的非气候偏差。气候信息的空间冗余有助于用统计方法识别特定站点的非均质性,但要正确检测和消除非均质性偏差,通常不容易发现单个非均质性的综合影响。在同质化程序中,通常会通过大量的空间比较,将在一个气候区域观测到的特定气候变量的多个时间序列同质化在一起。这种程序称为相对同质化。相对同质化程序可能包括一个或多个同质化循环,其中一个循环包括时间序列比较、不均匀性检测和不均匀性校正等步骤,还可能包括过滤离群值或填补数据缺口的空间插值等其他步骤。相对同质化方法因单个同质化周期的数量和内容、时间序列比较的程序、统计不均匀性检测方法、消除不均匀性偏差的方式以及其他具体细节而有所不同。高效的同质化需要在部分或全自动同质化程序中使用经过测试的统计方法。由于西班牙 MULTITEST 项目(2015-2017 年)完成了大量且种类繁多的均质化实验,其方法对比测试结果仍是目前使用的均质化方法效率方面最有参考价值的信息。本研究简要回顾了相对均质的进展,回顾了 MULTITEST 项目的一些关键成果,并分析了成功均质的一些理论方面。
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引用次数: 0
Real-World Emission Characteristics of Diesel Pallet Trucks under Varying Loads: Using the Example of China 不同载荷下柴油托盘车的实际排放特征:以中国为例
IF 2.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-11 DOI: 10.3390/atmos15080956
Ye Zhang, Yating Song, Tianshi Feng
Diesel pallet trucks, a type of heavy-duty diesel trucks (HDDTs), have historically been a vital component in logistics and transport due to their high payload capacity. However, they also present significant challenges, particularly in terms of emissions which contribute substantially to urban air pollution. Traditional HDDTs emission measurement methods, such as engine bench tests and those used in laboratory settings, often fail to capture real-world emission behaviors accurately. This study specifically examines the real-world emission characteristics of diesel pallet trucks exceeding 30 t under varying loads (unloaded, half loaded, and fully loaded) and different road conditions (urban, suburban, and high-speed). Considering that data quality is the key to the accuracy of the scheme, this research utilized a portable emission measurement system (PEMS) to capture real-time emissions data of carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOX), and total hydrocarbons (THC). Key findings demonstrate a direct correlation between vehicle load and emission factors, with the emission factors for CO2, CO, and NOX increasing by 39.5%, 105.4%, and 22.7%, respectively, from unloaded to fully loaded states under comprehensive operating conditions. Regression analyses further provide an emission factor prediction model for HDDPTs, underscoring the continuous relationship between speed, load, and emission rates. These findings provide a scientific basis for pollution control strategies for diesel trucks.
柴油托盘车是重型柴油卡车(HDDTs)的一种,由于其载重能力强,历来是物流和运输的重要组成部分。然而,它们也面临着巨大的挑战,特别是在排放方面,这对城市空气污染造成了重大影响。传统的 HDDTs 排放测量方法,如发动机台架测试和实验室环境中使用的方法,往往无法准确捕捉真实世界中的排放行为。本研究特别考察了超过 30 吨的柴油托盘车在不同负载(空载、半载和满载)和不同路况(城市、郊区和高速)下的实际排放特性。考虑到数据质量是方案准确性的关键,本研究利用便携式排放测量系统(PEMS)采集二氧化碳(CO2)、一氧化碳(CO)、氮氧化物(NOX)和总碳氢化合物(THC)的实时排放数据。主要研究结果表明,车辆负荷与排放因子之间存在直接关联,在综合运行条件下,从空载到满载状态,二氧化碳、一氧化碳和氮氧化物的排放因子分别增加了 39.5%、105.4% 和 22.7%。回归分析进一步提供了 HDDPT 的排放因子预测模型,强调了速度、负荷和排放率之间的连续关系。这些发现为柴油卡车的污染控制策略提供了科学依据。
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引用次数: 0
A Novel Apportionment Method Utilizing Particle Mass Size Distribution across Multiple Particle Size Ranges 利用多个粒径范围内的颗粒质量粒径分布的新型分摊方法
IF 2.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-10 DOI: 10.3390/atmos15080955
Peizhi Wang, Qingsong Wang, Yuhuan Jia, Jingjin Ma, Chunying Wang, Liping Qiao, Qingyan Fu, Abdelwahid Mellouki, Hui Chen, Li Li
Many cities in China are facing the dual challenge of PM2.5 and PM10 pollution. There is an urgent need to develop a cost-effective method that can apportion both with high-time resolution. A novel and practical apportionment method is presented in this study. It combines the measurement of particle mass size distribution (PMSD) with an optical particle counter (OPC) and the algorithm of normalized non-negative matrix factorization (N-NMF). Applied in the city center of Baoding, Hebei, this method separates four distinct pollution factors. Their sizes (ordered from the smallest to largest) range from 0.16 μm to 0.6 μm, 0.16 μm to 1.0 μm, 0.5 μm to 17.0 μm, and 2.0 μm to 20.0 μm, respectively. They correspondingly contribute to PM2.5 (PM10) with portions of 26% (17%), 37% (26%), 33% (41%), and 4% (16%), respectively, on average. The smaller three factors are identified as combustion, secondary, and industrial aerosols because of their high correlation with carbonaceous aerosols, nitrate aerosols, and trace elements of Fe/Mn/Ca in PM2.5, respectively. The largest-sized factor is linked to dust aerosols. The primary origin regions, oxidation degrees, and formation mechanisms of each source are further discussed. This provides a scientific basis for the comprehensive management of PM2.5 and PM10 pollution.
中国的许多城市都面临着 PM2.5 和 PM10 污染的双重挑战。迫切需要开发一种经济有效的方法,以高时间分辨率来分摊这两种污染。本研究提出了一种新颖实用的分摊方法。它将颗粒物质量粒径分布(PMSD)测量与光学颗粒物计数器(OPC)和归一化非负矩阵因式分解(N-NMF)算法相结合。该方法应用于河北保定市中心,可分离出四种不同的污染因子。它们的大小(从小到大)分别为 0.16 μm 至 0.6 μm、0.16 μm 至 1.0 μm、0.5 μm 至 17.0 μm,以及 2.0 μm 至 20.0 μm。相应地,它们对 PM2.5(PM10)的贡献率平均分别为 26%(17%)、37%(26%)、33%(41%)和 4%(16%)。较小的三个因子被确定为燃烧、二次气溶胶和工业气溶胶,因为它们分别与 PM2.5 中的碳质气溶胶、硝酸盐气溶胶和微量元素铁/锰/钙高度相关。最大的因素与尘埃气溶胶有关。进一步讨论了每个来源的主要起源区域、氧化程度和形成机制。这为 PM2.5 和 PM10 污染的综合治理提供了科学依据。
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引用次数: 0
Progress on Numerical Simulation of Gas-Liquid Two-Phase Flow in Self-Priming Pump 自吸泵中气液两相流的数值模拟研究进展
IF 2.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-10 DOI: 10.3390/atmos15080953
Heng Qian, Hongbo Zhao, Chun Xiang, Zhenhua Duan, Sanxia Zhang, Peijian Zhou
The fundamentals of the design and operation of self-priming pumps, as indispensable equipment in industry, have been the focus of research in the field of fluid mechanics. This paper begins with a comprehensive background on self-priming pumps and gas-liquid two-phase flow, and it outlines recent advances in the field. Self-priming pumps within the gas-liquid two-phase flow state and the spatial and temporal evolution of the transient characteristics of self-priming pumps determine the self-priming pump self-absorption performance. Through mastery of the self-absorption mechanism, high-performance self-absorption pump products can be formed to provide theoretical support for the development of products. In current research, numerical simulation has become an important tool for analyzing and predicting the behavior of gas-liquid two-phase flow in self-priming pumps. This paper reviews existing numerical models of gas-liquid two-phase flow and categorizes them. Reviewing these models not only provides us with a comprehensive understanding of the existing research but also offers possible directions for future research. The complexity of gas–liquid interactions and their impact on pump performance is analyzed. Through these detailed discussions, we are able to identify the challenges in the simulation process and summarize what has been achieved. In order to further improve the accuracy and reliability of simulations, this paper introduces the latest simulation techniques and research methodologies, which provide new perspectives for a deeper understanding of gas-liquid two-phase flow. In addition, this paper investigates a variety of factors which affect the operating efficiency of self-priming pumps, including the design parameters, fluid properties, and operating conditions. Comprehensive consideration of these factors is crucial for optimizing pump performance. Finally, this paper summarizes the current research results and identifies the main findings and deficiencies. Based on this, the need to improve the accuracy of numerical simulations and to study the design parameters in depth to improve pump performance is emphasized.
自吸泵作为工业中不可或缺的设备,其设计和运行的基本原理一直是流体力学领域的研究重点。本文首先全面介绍了自吸泵和气液两相流的背景,并概述了该领域的最新进展。气液两相流状态下的自吸泵以及自吸泵瞬态特性的时空演变决定了自吸泵的自吸性能。通过对自吸机理的掌握,可以形成高性能的自吸泵产品,为产品的开发提供理论支持。在目前的研究中,数值模拟已成为分析和预测自吸泵气液两相流行为的重要工具。本文回顾了现有的气液两相流数值模型,并对其进行了分类。回顾这些模型不仅能让我们全面了解现有研究,还能为未来研究提供可能的方向。分析了气液相互作用的复杂性及其对泵性能的影响。通过这些详细的讨论,我们能够确定模拟过程中的挑战,并总结已取得的成果。为了进一步提高模拟的准确性和可靠性,本文介绍了最新的模拟技术和研究方法,为深入理解气液两相流提供了新的视角。此外,本文还研究了影响自吸泵运行效率的各种因素,包括设计参数、流体特性和运行条件。全面考虑这些因素对于优化泵的性能至关重要。最后,本文总结了当前的研究成果,并指出了主要发现和不足之处。在此基础上,强调了提高数值模拟精度和深入研究设计参数以改善泵性能的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Assimilating Satellite-Derived Snow Cover and Albedo Data to Improve 3-D Weather and Photochemical Models 吸收卫星得出的雪盖和反照率数据,改进三维天气和光化学模型
IF 2.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-10 DOI: 10.3390/atmos15080954
Colleen Jones, Huy Tran, Trang Tran, Seth Lyman
During wintertime temperature inversion episodes, ozone in the Uinta Basin sometimes exceeds the standard of 70 ppb set by the US Environmental Protection Agency. Since ozone formation depends on sunlight, and less sunlight is available during winter, wintertime ozone can only form if snow cover and albedo are high. Researchers have encountered difficulties replicating high albedo values in 3-D weather and photochemical transport model simulations for winter episodes. In this study, a process to assimilate MODIS satellite data into WRF and CAMx models was developed, streamlined, and tested to demonstrate the impacts of data assimilation on the models’ performance. Improvements to the WRF simulation of surface albedo and snow cover were substantial. However, the impact of MODIS data assimilation on WRF performance for other meteorological quantities was minimal, and it had little impact on ozone concentrations in the CAMx photochemical transport model. The contrast between the data assimilation and reference cases was greater for a period with no new snow since albedo appears to decrease too rapidly in default WRF and CAMx configurations. Overall, the improvement from MODIS data assimilation had an observed enhancement in the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of surface characteristics on meteorological quantities and ozone production.
在冬季气温反常的情况下,乌因塔盆地的臭氧有时会超过美国环境保护局规定的 70 ppb 的标准。由于臭氧的形成依赖于阳光,而冬季阳光较少,因此冬季臭氧的形成只有在积雪覆盖率和反照率较高的情况下才能实现。研究人员在三维天气和光化学传输模型模拟中复制冬季的高反照率值时遇到了困难。在这项研究中,开发了将 MODIS 卫星数据同化到 WRF 和 CAMx 模型中的程序,并对其进行了简化和测试,以证明数据同化对模型性能的影响。WRF 对地表反照率和积雪覆盖的模拟有了很大改进。然而,MODIS 数据同化对 WRF 其他气象参数性能的影响微乎其微,对 CAMx 光化学传输模型中的臭氧浓度影响也很小。在没有新雪的情况下,数据同化和参考情况之间的反差更大,因为在默认的 WRF 和 CAMx 配置中,反照率似乎下降得太快。总体而言,MODIS 数据同化的改进在气象量和臭氧生成量的空间分布和地表特征的时间演化方面都有明显改善。
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引用次数: 0
Study on CO2 Emission Forecast of “Four Provinces of Mountains and Rivers” Based on Time-SeriesMachine Learning 基于时间序列机器学习的 "山水四省 "二氧化碳排放预测研究
IF 2.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.3390/atmos15080949
Xiaoting Zhou, Zhiqiang Liu, Lang Wu, Yangqing Wang
CO2 emissions prediction plays a key role in atmospheric environment management and regional sustainable development. Taking the Four Provinces of Mountains and Rivers (Henan, Hebei, Shandong, and Shanxi) in China as an example, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA) and random forest importance analysis were used to calculate the future trend of the CO2 emission–influencing factors and obtain the main influencing factors. Based on the above, BP neural network (BPNN), support vector machine (SVR), and random forest (RF) models were used to predict the future apparent CO2 emissions of the four provinces. The results show that, in general, population, coal consumption, and per capita GDP are the main factors influencing CO2 emissions. The RF model has the best prediction performance; for instance, RMSE (81.86), R2 (0.905), and MAE (64.69). The prediction results show that the total apparent CO2 emissions of the Four Provinces of Mountains and Rivers will peak in 2028 (with a peak of about 4500 Mt). The apparent CO2 emissions of Henan, Hebei, and Shandong Province peaked in 2011 (with a peak of about 654 Mt), 2013 (with a peak of about 657 Mt), and 2020 (with a peak of about 1273 Mt), respectively. Shanxi is forecast to reach its peak (with a peak of about 2486 Mt) in 2029. The apparent CO2 emissions of all provinces showed an obvious downward trend after reaching their peak. Henan, Hebei Shandong, and Shanxi showed a significant downward trend in 2018, 2023, and 2032, respectively.
二氧化碳排放预测在大气环境管理和区域可持续发展中发挥着关键作用。以中国山水四省(河南、河北、山东、山西)为例,采用自回归综合移动平均模型(ARIMA)和随机森林重要性分析方法,计算二氧化碳排放影响因子的未来变化趋势,得出主要影响因子。在此基础上,利用 BP 神经网络(BPNN)、支持向量机(SVR)和随机森林(RF)模型对四省未来的二氧化碳表观排放量进行了预测。结果表明,总体而言,人口、煤炭消费和人均 GDP 是影响二氧化碳排放量的主要因素。RF 模型的预测性能最好,例如,RMSE(81.86)、R2(0.905)和 MAE(64.69)。预测结果表明,山水四省的二氧化碳表观排放总量将在 2028 年达到峰值(峰值约为 4.5 亿吨)。河南省、河北省和山东省的二氧化碳表观排放量分别在 2011 年(峰值约 6.54 亿吨)、2013 年(峰值约 6.57 亿吨)和 2020 年(峰值约 1.27 亿吨)达到峰值。预计山西将在 2029 年达到峰值(峰值约为 2.486 亿吨)。各省的二氧化碳表观排放量在达到峰值后呈明显下降趋势。河南、河北山东和山西分别在 2018 年、2023 年和 2032 年出现明显下降趋势。
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引用次数: 0
On the Relation between Wind Speed and Maximum or Mean Water Wave Height 风速与最大或平均水波高度之间的关系
IF 2.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.3390/atmos15080948
Sarah Balkissoon, Y. Charles Li, Anthony R. Lupo, Samuel Walsh, Lukas McGuire
Dimensional analysis shows that the relation between wind speed and maximum or mean water wave height takes the form H=cU02g, where H is the maximum or mean water wave height caused by wind of speed U0, g is the gravitational acceleration, and c is a dimensionless constant. This relation is important in predicting the maximum or mean water wave height caused by a tropical cyclone. Firstly, the mathematical and theoretical justification for determining c is presented. Verification is conducted using four tropical cyclones as case studies for determining c using significant wave heights rather than the overall maximum and mean. The observed values of c are analyzed statistically. On the days when the fixed buoy captured the highest wind speeds, the frequency distributions of the data for c are close to a bell shape with very small standard deviations in comparison with the mean values; thus, the mean values provide good predictions for c. In view of the fact that tropical cyclone waves are turbulent and the background waves caused by many other factors such as lunar tidal effect cannot be ignored, the obtained results for c are quite satisfactory. This method provides a direct approach in the prediction of the wave height or the wind speeds given the c value and can serve an interpolation methodology to increase the temporal resolution of the data.
尺寸分析表明,风速与最大或平均水波高度之间的关系形式为 H=cU02g,其中 H 为风速 U0 引起的最大或平均水波高度,g 为重力加速度,c 为无量纲常数。这一关系对于预测热带气旋引起的最大或平均水波高度非常重要。首先,介绍了确定 c 的数学和理论依据。以四个热带气旋为案例进行验证,使用显著波高而不是总体最大值和平均值来确定 c。对观测到的 c 值进行了统计分析。在固定浮标捕捉到最高风速的日子里,c 的数据频率分布接近钟形,与平均值相比,标准偏差非常小;因此,平均值为 c 提供了良好的预测。这种方法提供了在给定 c 值的情况下预测波高或风速的直接方法,并可作为一种插值方法来提高数据的时间分辨率。
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Atmosphere
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