In the past decade, ship traffic and the associated atmospheric emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) have significantly increased in the Barents and Kara Sea region. Despite the rapid growth in ship traffic and NOx emissions, research on the impact of these developments on regional air quality in the data-sparse Arctic remains limited. This study assesses the impact of recent changes in ship traffic on regional atmospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations for the years 2015, 2019, and 2021, utilizing the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme's Meteorological Synthesizing Center – West (EMEP) chemical transport model (CTM). The feasibility of using Copernicus Sentinel-5P Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) NO2 tropospheric vertical column densities (VCDs), adjusted with EMEP CTM vertical profiles as an independent reference for model evaluation in 2019 and 2021. The study reveals a continuous increase in ship-induced NO2 surface concentrations from 2015 to 2021. The contribution of the shipping sector is substantial (40–90 %), particularly during summer and in areas with dense shipping activities, such as the Gulf of Ob, where shipping has shifted from having a seasonal to a year-round impact. The comparison between modelled NO2 concentrations and TROPOMI NO2 VCDs showed weak to moderate positive correlations, with stronger relationships observed in specific subareas with high ship traffic, like the Gulf of Ob. This demonstrates the potential of combining satellite data with CTMs to assess the impact of ship traffic on regional air quality in high latitudes. Ultimately, this study highlights the significant impact the shipping sector already has on regional air quality, underscoring the need for continued monitoring and assessment of ongoing human activities and their future impact on the Arctic environment.
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