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Evaluation of modelled versus observed non-methane volatile organic compounds at European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme sites in Europe 欧洲监测和评价计划欧洲站点非甲烷挥发性有机化合物模型与观测值对比评价
IF 6.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.5194/acp-24-7699-2024
Yao Ge, Sverre Solberg, Mathew R. Heal, Stefan Reimann, Willem van Caspel, Bryan Hellack, Thérèse Salameh, David Simpson
Abstract. Atmospheric volatile organic compounds (VOCs) constitute a wide range of species, acting as precursors to ozone and aerosol formation. Atmospheric chemistry and transport models (CTMs) are crucial to understanding the emissions, distribution, and impacts of VOCs. Given the uncertainties in VOC emissions, lack of evaluation studies, and recent changes in emissions, this work adapts the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme Meteorological Synthesizing Centre – West (EMEP MSC-W) CTM to evaluate emission inventories in Europe. Here we undertake the first intensive model–measurement comparison of VOCs in 2 decades. The modelled surface concentrations are evaluated both spatially and temporally, using measurements from the regular EMEP monitoring network in 2018 and 2019, as well as a 2022 campaign. To achieve this, we utilised the UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory to derive explicit emission profiles for individual species and employed a tracer method to produce pure concentrations that are directly comparable to observations. The degree to which the modelled and measured VOCs agree varies depending on the specific species. The model successfully captures the overall spatial and temporal variations of major alkanes (e.g. ethane, n-butane) and unsaturated species (e.g. ethene, benzene) but less so for propane, i-butane, and ethyne. This discrepancy underscores potential issues in the boundary conditions for the latter species and in their primary emissions from, in particular, the solvent and road transport sectors. Specifically, potential missing propane emissions and issues with its boundary conditions are highlighted by large model underestimations and smaller propane-to-ethane ratios compared to the measurement. Meanwhile, both the model and measurements show strong linear correlations among butane isomers and among pentane isomers, indicating common sources for these pairs of isomers. However, modelled ratios of i-butane to n-butane and i-pentane to n-pentane are approximately one-third of the measured ratios, which is largely driven by significant emissions of n-butane and n-pentane from the solvent sector. This suggests issues with the speciation profile of the solvent sector, underrepresented contributions from transport and fuel evaporation sectors in current inventories, or both. Furthermore, the modelled ethene-to-ethyne and benzene-to-ethyne ratios differ significantly from measured ratios. The different model performance strongly points to shortcomings in the spatial and temporal patterns and magnitudes of ethyne emissions, especially during winter. For OVOCs, the modelled and measured concentrations of methanal and methylglyoxal show a good agreement, despite a moderate underestimation by the model in summer. This discrepancy could be attributed to an underestimation of contributions from biogenic sources or possibly a model overestimation of their photolytic loss in summer. However, the insufficiency of suitabl
摘要大气中的挥发性有机化合物(VOCs)种类繁多,是臭氧和气溶胶形成的前体物质。大气化学和传输模型(CTM)对于了解挥发性有机化合物的排放、分布和影响至关重要。鉴于挥发性有机化合物排放的不确定性、评估研究的缺乏以及近期排放的变化,这项工作采用了欧洲监测与评估计划气象综合中心-西部(EMEP MSC-W)的 CTM 来评估欧洲的排放清单。在此,我们对二十年来的挥发性有机化合物进行了首次深入的模型-测量比较。利用 2018 年和 2019 年 EMEP 常规监测网络的测量数据以及 2022 年的测量数据,从空间和时间两方面对模拟的地表浓度进行了评估。为此,我们利用英国国家大气排放清单得出了各个物种的明确排放曲线,并采用示踪法得出了与观测结果直接可比的纯浓度。模型和测量的挥发性有机化合物的一致程度因具体物种而异。该模型成功地捕捉到了主要烷烃(如乙烷、正丁烷)和不饱和物质(如乙烯、苯)的总体时空变化,但对丙烷、i-丁烷和乙炔的捕捉效果较差。这种差异凸显了后一种物质的边界条件及其主要排放(尤其是溶剂和道路运输部门)中的潜在问题。具体来说,与测量结果相比,模型低估了大量丙烷,丙烷与乙烷的比率也较小,这突出了丙烷排放的潜在遗漏及其边界条件问题。同时,模型和测量结果都显示丁烷异构体和戊烷异构体之间存在很强的线性相关,这表明这对异构体存在共同的来源。不过,模型中的正丁烷与i-丁烷之比以及i-戊烷与正戊烷之比约为测量值的三分之一,这主要是由于溶剂行业排放了大量的正丁烷和正戊烷。这表明溶剂行业的规格概况存在问题,目前的清单中未充分反映运输和燃料蒸发行业的贡献,或两者兼而有之。此外,模拟的乙烯-乙炔和苯-乙炔比率与测量的比率有很大差异。模型的不同表现有力地说明了乙炔排放的时空模式和规模存在缺陷,尤其是在冬季。在 OVOCs 方面,甲缩醛和甲基乙二醛的模拟浓度和测量浓度显示出良好的一致性,尽管模型在夏季适度低估了其浓度。造成这种差异的原因可能是低估了生物源的贡献,也可能是模型高估了它们在夏季的光解损失。然而,由于缺乏合适的测量数据,对其他 OVOCs 的评估受到了限制。最后,与使用排放清单和预测中心(CEIP)清单进行的模拟相比,使用 CAMS 清单进行的模型模拟与测量结果的一致性略好。这种改进可能是由于 CAMS 清单对道路运输行业进行了详细划分,包括相关的特定子行业排放概况。考虑到这一改进,以及之前提到的对模型中各种挥发性有机化合物比例估计偏差的担忧,未来的工作应侧重于更详细地细分主要排放部门(如溶剂),并完善其规格剖面,以提高模型的准确性。
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引用次数: 0
Weak surface temperature effects of recent reductions in shipping SO2 emissions, with quantification confounded by internal variability 最近航运业二氧化硫排放量的减少对地表温度的影响较弱,其量化受到内部变异性的影响
IF 6.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-1946
Duncan Watson-Parris, Laura J. Wilcox, Camilla W. Stjern, Robert J. Allen, Geeta Persad, Massimo A. Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, Carley E. Iles, Manoj Joshi, Marianne T. Lund, Daniel McCoy, Daniel Westervelt, Andrew Williams, Bjørn H. Samset
Abstract. In 2020 the International Maritime Organization (IMO) implemented strict new regulations on the emissions of sulphate aerosol from the world's shipping fleet. This can be expected to lead to a reduction in aerosol-driven cooling, unmasking a portion of greenhouse gas warming. The magnitude of the effect is uncertain, however, due to the large remaining uncertainties in the climate response to aerosols. Here, we investigate this question using an 18-member ensemble of fully coupled climate simulations evenly sampling key modes of climate variability with the NCAR CESM2 model. We show that while there is a clear physical response of the climate system to the IMO regulations, including a surface temperature increase, we do not find global mean temperature influence that is significantly different from zero. The 20-year average global mean warming for 2020–2040 is +0.03 °C, with a 5–95 % confidence range of [-0.09, 0.19], reflecting the weakness of the perturbation relative to internal variability. We do, however, find a robust, non-zero regional temperature response in part of the North Atlantic. We also find that the maximum annual-mean ensemble-mean warming occurs around a decade after the perturbation in 2029, which means that the IMO regulations have likely had very limited influence on observed global warming to date. We further discuss our results in light of other, recent publications that have reached different conclusions. Overall, while the IMO regulations may contribute up to at 0.16 °C [-0.17, 0.52] to the global mean surface temperature in individual years during this decade, consistent with some early studies, such a response is unlikely to have been discernible above internal variability by the end of 2023 and is in fact consistent with zero throughout the 2020–2040 period.
摘要2020 年,国际海事组织(IMO)对全球船队的硫酸盐气溶胶排放实施了严格的新规定。预计这将导致气溶胶驱动的冷却减少,从而揭开温室气体变暖的部分面纱。然而,由于气溶胶对气候的反应还存在很大的不确定性,因此这种影响的程度还不确定。在这里,我们利用 NCAR CESM2 模型对气候变率的关键模式进行均匀采样,并使用 18 个成员的完全耦合气候模拟集合来研究这个问题。我们的研究表明,虽然气候系统对《国际海事组织条例》有明显的物理响应,包括地表温度上升,但我们并没有发现全球平均温度的影响与零有显著差异。2020-2040 年的 20 年平均全球平均升温幅度为 +0.03 °C,5-95 % 的置信区间为 [-0.09, 0.19],这反映了相对于内部变率的微弱扰动。不过,我们确实发现北大西洋部分地区的区域温度响应强劲,不为零。我们还发现,最大年均集合平均升温发生在扰动发生后的十年左右,即 2029 年,这意味着国际海事组织的规定对迄今观测到的全球变暖的影响可能非常有限。我们还根据最近发表的其他文章进一步讨论了我们的结果,这些文章得出了不同的结论。总体而言,虽然国际海事组织条例可能在这十年间的个别年份对全球平均地表温度产生 0.16 °C[-0.17,0.52]的影响,这与一些早期研究一致,但到 2023 年底,这种影响不太可能高于内部变率,事实上,在整个 2020-2040 年期间,这种影响为零。
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引用次数: 0
The water-insoluble organic carbon in PM2.5 of typical Chinese urban areas: light-absorbing properties, potential sources, radiative forcing effects, and a possible light-absorbing continuum 中国典型城市地区 PM2.5 中的水不溶性有机碳:光吸收特性、潜在来源、辐射强迫效应以及可能的光吸收连续体
IF 6.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.5194/acp-24-7755-2024
Yangzhi Mo, Jun Li, Guangcai Zhong, Sanyuan Zhu, Shizhen Zhao, Jiao Tang, Hongxing Jiang, Zhineng Cheng, Chongguo Tian, Yingjun Chen, Gan Zhang
Abstract. Water-insoluble organic carbon (WIOC) constitutes a substantial portion of organic carbon (OC) and contributes significantly to light absorption by brown carbon (BrC), playing pivotal roles in climate forcing. China is a hotspot region with high levels of OC and BrC, but information regarding the sources and light-absorbing properties of WIOC on a national scale remains scarce. Here, we investigated the light-absorbing properties and sources of WIOC in 10 representative urban cities in China. On average, WIOC made up 33.4 ± 7.66 % and 40.5 ± 9.73 % of concentrations and light absorption at 365 nm (Abs365) of extractable OC (EX-OC), which includes relatively hydrophobic OC (WIOC and humic-like substances, HULIS-C) and hydrophilic OC (non-humic-like substances, non-HULIS-C). The mass absorption efficiency of WIOC at 365 nm (MAE365) was (1.59 ± 0.55 m2 (g C)−1) comparable to that of HULIS (1.54 ± 0.57 m2 (g C)−1) but significantly higher than non-HULIS (0.71 ± 0.28 m2 (g C)−1), indicating that hydrophobic OC possesses a stronger light-absorbing capacity than hydrophilic OC. Biomass burning (31.0 %) and coal combustion (31.1 %) were the dominant sources of WIOC, with coal combustion sources exhibiting the strongest light-absorbing capacity. Moreover, employing the simple forcing efficiency (SFE300–700 nm) method, we observed that WIOC exhibited the highest SFE300–700 nm (6.57 ± 5.37 W g−1) among the EX-OC fractions. The radiative forcing of EX-OC was predominantly contributed by hydrophobic OC (WIOC – 39.4 ± 15.5 % and HULIS – 39.5 ± 12.1 %). Considering the aromaticity, sources, and atmospheric processes of different carbonaceous components, we propose a light-absorbing carbonaceous continuum, revealing that components enriched with fossil sources tend to possess stronger light-absorbing capacity, higher aromatic levels, increased molecular weights, and greater recalcitrance in the atmosphere. Reducing fossil fuel emissions emerges as an effective means of mitigating both gaseous (CO2) and particulate light-absorbing carbonaceous warming components.
摘要。水不溶性有机碳(WIOC)是有机碳(OC)的重要组成部分,对褐碳(BrC)的光吸收起着重要作用,在气候强迫中起着举足轻重的作用。中国是OC和BrC含量较高的热点地区,但有关全国范围内WIOC的来源和光吸收特性的信息仍然很少。在此,我们调查了中国 10 个代表性城市中 WIOC 的光吸收特性和来源。在可萃取OC(EX-OC)的浓度和365 nm波长光吸收率(Abs365)中,WIOC平均占33.4 ± 7.66 %和40.5 ± 9.73 %,EX-OC包括相对疏水性OC(WIOC和类腐殖质,HULIS-C)和亲水性OC(非类腐殖质,non-HULIS-C)。WIOC 在 365 纳米波长下的质量吸收效率(MAE365)为(1.59 ± 0.55 m2 (g C)-1),与 HULIS(1.54 ± 0.57 m2 (g C)-1)相当,但明显高于非 HULIS(0.71 ± 0.28 m2 (g C)-1),表明疏水性 OC 比亲水性 OC 具有更强的光吸收能力。生物质燃烧(31.0%)和煤炭燃烧(31.1%)是 WIOC 的主要来源,其中煤炭燃烧的光吸收能力最强。此外,利用简单强迫效率(SFE300-700 nm)法,我们观察到 WIOC 在 EX-OC 分馏物中表现出最高的 SFE300-700 nm(6.57 ± 5.37 W g-1)。EX-OC的辐射强迫主要来自疏水OC(WIOC - 39.4 ± 15.5 %,HULIS - 39.5 ± 12.1 %)。考虑到不同碳质成分的芳香度、来源和大气过程,我们提出了一个光吸收碳质连续体,揭示了富含化石来源的成分往往具有更强的光吸收能力、更高的芳香度、更大的分子量以及在大气中更大的再脆性。减少化石燃料排放是减缓气态(二氧化碳)和颗粒吸光碳质变暖成分的有效手段。
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引用次数: 0
Momentum flux characteristics of vertical propagating Gravity Waves 垂直传播重力波的动量通量特征
IF 6.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-1982
Prosper K. Nyassor, Cristiano M. Wrasse, Igo Paulino, Cosme A. O. B. Figueiredo, Ricardo A. Buriti, Hisao Takahashi, Delano Gobbi, Gabriel A. Giongo
Abstract. Simultaneous observations of airglow intensity, rotational temperature, and wind data at São João do Cariri (36.31° W; 07.40° S) by Co-located photometer, all-sky imager, and meteor radar were used to study the characteristics of vertical propagating gravity waves (GWs). Using the photometer data, the phase progression of GWs with the same propagation period in the OI 557.7nm, O2, NaD-line, and OH (6-2) emission layers were then used to determine the upward or downward vertical propagation of the waves. The vertical phase speed and wavelength are estimated using the wave period and phase difference at different altitude. From the O2 and OH (6-2) rotational temperatures, the total energy and the momentum flux of the downward propagating GWs were determined. For the upward propagating GW only the momentum flux and potential energy were estimated due to lack of observed wind. Further analysis of the momentum flux for each of the two events revealed that the momentum flux and potential energy of the downward propagating GWs increases with decreasing altitude. On the contrary, the GW momentum and energy of the upward propagating waves increases with increasing altitude. Thus, clearly demonstrating the transfer of momentum flux and energy from the source to the sink. This characteristic difference can be used to careful analysis the changes in GWs energy propagation due to reflection of non-primary GWs.
摘要利用共址光度计、全天空成像仪和流星雷达在 São João do Cariri(西经 36.31 度;南纬 07.40 度)同时观测到的气辉强度、旋转温度和风数据,研究了垂直传播重力波(GWs)的特征。利用光度计数据,在 OI 557.7nm、O2、NaD 线和 OH(6-2)发射层中对具有相同传播周期的重力波的相位变化进行分析,以确定重力波是向上还是向下垂直传播。利用不同高度的波周期和相位差估算垂直相速和波长。根据 O2 和 OH (6-2) 旋转温度,确定了向下传播的全球大气环流的总能量和动量通量。对于向上传播的全球大气环流,由于没有观测到风,只估算了动量通量和势能。对两个事件的动量通量的进一步分析表明,向下传播的全球大气风暴的动量通量和势能随着高度的降低而增加。相反,向上传播的全球定位系统的动量和能量则随着高度的增加而增加。因此,这清楚地表明了动量通量和能量从源向汇的转移。可以利用这一特征差异来仔细分析非初级全球定位系统反射导致的全球定位系统能量传播的变化。
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引用次数: 0
Diverse sources and aging change the mixing state and ice nucleation properties of aerosol particles over the western Pacific and Southern Ocean 不同来源和老化改变了西太平洋和南大洋上空气溶胶粒子的混合状态和冰核特性
IF 6.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.5194/acp-24-7731-2024
Jiao Xue, Tian Zhang, Keyhong Park, Jinpei Yan, Young Jun Yoon, Jiyeon Park, Bingbing Wang
Abstract. Atmospheric particles can impact cloud formation and play a critical role in regulating cloud properties. However, particle characteristics at the single-particle level and their ability to act as ice-nucleating particles (INPs) over the marine atmosphere are poorly understood. In this study, we present micro-spectroscopic characterizations and ice nucleation properties of particles collected during a cruise from South Korea to Antarctica in 2019. Most of the samples were dominated by fresh sea salt, aged sea salt, and sea salt mixed with sulfate particles, with total number percentages ranging from 48 % to 99 % over the western Pacific and the Southern Ocean. The mixing-state index of the particle population ranged from 50 % to 95 % over the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere. Multiphase processes on sea salt particles resulted in chlorine deficiency. This selective aging process made the marine particle population more externally mixed. Ice nucleation onset conditions primarily for the deposition mode were measured and the investigated particles showed diverse ice nucleation abilities. The fresh sea salt particles with organic coatings exhibited the highest ice nucleation ability at a relative humidity with respect to ice as low as 121 %. The sea salt mixed sulfate particle was enriched in INPs by a factor of 1.9. Aging processes affected both the mixing state of the particles and their ice nucleation abilities. Our analysis shows that assuming an internally mixed particle population in the marine atmosphere can lead to errors of several orders of magnitude in predicting ice nucleation rates.
摘要大气颗粒会影响云的形成,并在调节云的特性方面发挥关键作用。然而,人们对颗粒物在单颗粒水平上的特征及其在海洋大气中作为冰核颗粒物(INPs)的能力知之甚少。在本研究中,我们介绍了 2019 年从韩国到南极洲巡航期间收集的颗粒的微光谱特征和冰核特性。大部分样品以新鲜海盐、陈年海盐和海盐与硫酸盐混合颗粒为主,在西太平洋和南大洋的总数量百分比从 48 % 到 99 % 不等。在北半球和南半球,颗粒群的混合状态指数从 50% 到 95% 不等。海盐颗粒的多相过程导致缺氯。这种选择性老化过程使海洋颗粒群更加外部混合。测量了主要用于沉积模式的冰核形成条件,所研究的颗粒显示出不同的冰核形成能力。带有有机涂层的新鲜海盐颗粒在相对于冰的相对湿度低至 121% 时显示出最高的成冰能力。海盐混合硫酸盐颗粒的 INPs 含量富集了 1.9 倍。老化过程既影响颗粒的混合状态,也影响它们的成冰能力。我们的分析表明,假设海洋大气中存在内部混合颗粒群,则在预测冰成核率时可能会出现几个数量级的误差。
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引用次数: 0
Australian Bushfire Emissions Result in Enhanced Polar Stratospheric Ice Clouds 澳大利亚丛林大火排放导致极地平流层冰云增强
IF 6.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-1849
Srinivasan Prasanth, Narayana Sarma Anand, Kudilil Sunilkumar, Subin Jose, Kenath Arun, Sreedharan K. Satheesh, Krishnaswamy K. Moorthy
Abstract. Extreme bushfire events amplify climate change by emitting greenhouse gases and destroying carbon sinks while causing economic damage through property destruction and even fatalities. One such bushfire occurred in Australia during 2019/2020, injecting large amounts of aerosols and gases into the stratosphere and depleting the ozone layer. While previous studies focused on the drivers behind ozone depletion, the bushfire impact on the polar stratospheric clouds (PSC), a paramount factor in ozone depletion, has not been extensively investigated so far. This study focuses on the effects of bushfire aerosols on the dynamics and stratospheric chemistry related to PSC formation and its pathways. An analysis from Aura's microwave limb sounder revealed enhanced hydrolysis of dinitrogen pentoxide significantly increased nitric acid (HNO3) in the high-latitude lower stratosphere in early 2020. Using a novel methodology which retrieves formation pathways of PSCs from spaceborne lidar observations, we found that the enhanced HNO3 condensed on bushfire aerosols, forming 82 % of Liquid Nitric Acid Trihydrate (LNAT), which rapidly converted to 77 % of ice, resulting in an anomalous high areal coverage of ice PSCs. This highlights the primary formation pathways of ice and LNAT and possibly helps us to simulate the PSC formation and denitrification process better in climate models. As tropospheric warming is anticipated to increase the frequency of extreme wildfire events and stratospheric cooling is expected to expand the PSC areal coverage, these findings will contribute significantly to a deeper understanding of the impacts of extreme wildfire events on stratospheric chemistry and PSC dynamics.
摘要。极端丛林火灾事件会排放温室气体,破坏碳汇,同时造成财产损失甚至人员伤亡,从而扩大气候变化。2019/2020 年期间,澳大利亚发生了一次这样的丛林火灾,向平流层注入了大量气溶胶和气体,消耗了臭氧层。以往的研究侧重于臭氧消耗背后的驱动因素,但迄今为止,丛林火灾对极地平流层云(PSC)(臭氧消耗的一个重要因素)的影响尚未得到广泛研究。本研究侧重于丛林火灾气溶胶对与极地平流层云形成有关的动态和平流层化学及其路径的影响。Aura 微波测边仪的分析表明,2020 年初高纬度低平流层中五氧化二氮的水解作用增强,硝酸(HNO3)显著增加。利用一种从空间激光雷达观测数据中检索 PSCs 形成途径的新方法,我们发现增强的 HNO3 在丛林火灾气溶胶上凝结,形成了 82% 的三水液态硝酸(LNAT),并迅速转化为 77% 的冰,导致冰 PSCs 的面积覆盖率异常高。这突出了冰和 LNAT 的主要形成途径,可能有助于我们在气候模式中更好地模拟 PSC 的形成和脱硝过程。由于预计对流层变暖将增加极端野火事件的发生频率,而平流层变冷将扩大PSC的面积覆盖范围,因此这些发现将大大有助于我们更深入地了解极端野火事件对平流层化学和PSC动力学的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Ozone trends in homogenized Umkehr, Ozonesonde, and COH overpass records Umkehr、臭氧探测仪和 COH 过站记录中的臭氧变化趋势
IF 6.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-1821
Irina Petropavlovskikh, Jeannette D. Wild, Kari Abromitis, Peter Effertz, Koji Miyagawa, Lawrence E. Flynn, Eliane Maillard-Barra, Robert Damadeo, Glen McConville, Bryan Johnson, Patrick Cullis, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Gerald Ancellet, Richard Querel, Roeland Van Malderen, Daniel Zawada
Abstract. This study presents an updated evaluation of stratospheric ozone profile trends at Arosa/Davos/Hohenpeißenberg, Switzerland/Germany, Observatory de Haute Provence (OHP), France, Boulder, Colorado, Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) and Hilo, Hawaii, and Lauder, New Zealand with focus on the ozone recovery period post 2000. Trends are derived using vertical ozone profiles from NOAA’s Dobson Network via the Umkehr method (with a recent new homogenization), ozonesondes, and the NOAA COHesive SBUV/OMPS satellite-based record (COH) sampled to match geographical coordinates of the ground-based stations used in this study. Analyses of long-term changes in stratospheric ozone time series were performed using the updated version (0.8.0) of the Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere (LOTUS) Independent Linear Trend (ILT) regression model. This study finds a consistency of the trends derived from the different observational records, which is a key factor to the understanding of the recovery of the ozone layer after the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments that control ozone-depleting substances production and release into the atmosphere. The Northern Hemispheric Umkehr records of Aros/Davos, OHP, and MLO all show positive trends in the mid to upper stratosphere with trends peaking at ~+2 %/decade. Although the upper stratospheric ozone trends derived from COH satellite records are more positive than those detected by the Umkehr system, the agreement is within the two sigma uncertainty. Umkehr trends in the upper stratosphere at Boulder and Lauder are positive but not statistically significant, while COH trends are larger and statistically significant (within 2 sigma). In the lower stratosphere, trends derived from Umkehr and ozonesonde records are mostly negative (except for positive ozonesonde trends at OHP), however the uncertainties are quite large. Additional dynamical proxies were investigated in the LOTUS model at five ground-based sites. The use of additional proxies did not significantly change trends, but equivalent latitude reduced the uncertainty of the Umkehr and COH trends in the upper stratosphere and at higher latitudes. In lower layers, additional predictors (tropopause pressure for all stations, two extra components of Quasi-Biennial Oscillation at MLO, Arctic Oscillation at Arosa/Davos, OHP and MLO) improve the model fit and reduce trend uncertainties as seen by Umkehr and sonde.
摘要。本研究对瑞士/德国 Arosa/Davos/Hohenpeißenberg 观测站、法国上普罗旺斯观测站、科罗拉多州博尔德观测站、夏威夷茂纳罗亚观测站和希洛观测站以及新西兰劳德观测站的平流层臭氧剖面趋势进行了最新评估,重点关注 2000 年后的臭氧恢复期。利用 NOAA 多布森网络的垂直臭氧剖面图,通过 Umkehr 方法(最近进行了新的同质化)、臭氧探测仪和 NOAA COHesive SBUV/OMPS 星基记录(COH)进行采样,以与本研究中使用的地面站的地理坐标相匹配,从而得出趋势。使用平流层臭氧长期趋势和不确定性(LOTUS)独立线性趋势(ILT)回归模型的更新版本(0.8.0)对平流层臭氧时间序列的长期变化进行了分析。这项研究发现,从不同观测记录中得出的趋势具有一致性,这是了解《蒙特利尔议定书》及其修正案实施后臭氧层恢复情况的一个关键因素。北半球 Aros/Davos、OHP 和 MLO 的 Umkehr 记录均显示平流层中上层的正趋势,趋势峰值为 ~+2 %/十年。虽然从 COH 卫星记录中得出的上平流层臭氧趋势比 Umkehr 系统检测到的趋势更积极,但两者的一致性在两个西格玛的不确定性范围内。Umkehr 在 Boulder 和 Lauder 上平流层的趋势是正的,但在统计上并不显著,而 COH 的趋势更大,在统计上也很显著(在 2 sigma 范围内)。在平流层下部,根据 Umkehr 和臭氧探测仪记录得出的趋势大多为负值(除了 OHP 的臭氧探测仪趋势为正值),但不确定性相当大。在 LOTUS 模式中,对五个地面站点的其他动力学代用指标进行了研究。额外代用指标的使用并没有显著改变趋势,但等效纬度降低了 Umkehr 和 COH 在上平流层和高纬度趋势的不确定性。在低层,额外的预测因子(所有站点的对流层顶气压、在 MLO 的准两年涛动的两个额外分量、在 Arosa/Davos、OHP 和 MLO 的北极涛动)改善了模型拟合,减少了 Umkehr 和 sonde 的趋势不确定性。
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引用次数: 0
Atmospheric oxidation of 1,3-butadiene: influence of acidity and relative humidity on SOA composition and air toxic compounds 1,3-丁二烯的大气氧化:酸度和相对湿度对 SOA 成分和空气有毒化合物的影响
IF 6.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-2032
Mohammed Jaoui, Klara Nestorowicz, Krzysztof Rudzinski, Michael Lewandowski, Tadeusz Kleindienst, Julio Torres, Ewa Bulska, Witold Danikiewicz, Rafal Szmigielski
Abstract. This study investigated the effect of relative humidity (RH) on the chemical composition of gas and particle phases formed from the photooxidation of 1,3-butadiene (13BD) in the presence of NOx under acidic and non-acidic conditions. The experiments were conducted in a 14.5 m3 smog chamber operated in a steady-state mode. Products were identified by high performance liquid chromatography, gas chromatography mass spectrometry and ultrahigh performance liquid chromatography coupled with high resolution mass spectrometry. More than 48 oxygenated products were identified including 33 oxygenated organics, 10 organosulfates (OSs), PAN, APAN, glyoxal, formaldehyde, and acrolein. Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) mass and reaction products were found to be dependent on RH and acidity of the aerosol. SOA mass, and most SOA products (i) were higher under acidic than non-acidic conditions, and (ii) decreased with increasing RH. Glyceric acid, threitols, threonic acids, four dimers, three unknowns, and four organosulfates were among the main species measured either under acidic or non-acidic conditions across all RH levels. Total secondary organic carbon and carbon yield decreased with increasing RH under both acidic and non-acidic conditions. The photochemical reactivity of 13BD in our systems decreased with increasing RH and was faster under non-acidic than acidic conditions. To determine the contribution of 13BD products to ambient aerosol, we analyzed PM2.5 samples collected at three European monitoring stations located in Poland. The occurrence of several 13BD SOA products (e.g., glyceric acid, tartronic acid, threonic acid, tartaric acid, and OSs) in the field samples suggests that 13BD could contribute to ambient aerosol formation.
摘要本研究探讨了相对湿度(RH)对 1,3-丁二烯(13BD)在酸性和非酸性条件下与氮氧化物发生光氧化反应所形成的气体和颗粒相的化学组成的影响。实验在一个以稳态模式运行的 14.5 立方米烟雾室中进行。通过高效液相色谱法、气相色谱质谱法和超高效液相色谱-高分辨质谱法对产物进行了鉴定。确定了超过 48 种含氧产品,包括 33 种含氧有机物、10 种有机硫酸盐 (OS)、PAN、APAN、乙二醛、甲醛和丙烯醛。研究发现,二次有机气溶胶(SOA)的质量和反应产物取决于相对湿度和气溶胶的酸度。SOA 质量和大多数 SOA 产物(i)在酸性条件下比非酸性条件下高,(ii)随着相对湿度的增加而减少。在所有相对湿度水平下的酸性或非酸性条件下测得的主要物质包括甘油酸、苏糖醇、苏酸、四种二聚物、三种未知物和四种有机硫酸盐。在酸性和非酸性条件下,次生有机碳总量和碳产量随着相对湿度的增加而减少。在我们的系统中,13BD 的光化学反应活性随着相对湿度的增加而降低,并且在非酸性条件下比酸性条件下更快。为了确定 13BD 产品对环境气溶胶的贡献,我们分析了在波兰的三个欧洲监测站收集的 PM2.5 样品。现场样本中出现了几种 13BD SOA 产物(如甘油酸、酒石酸、苏氨酸、酒石酸和 OSs),这表明 13BD 可能有助于环境气溶胶的形成。
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引用次数: 0
The 2023 global warming spike was driven by El Niño/Southern Oscillation 厄尔尼诺/南方涛动是 2023 年全球变暖高峰的驱动因素
IF 6.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-1937
Shiv Priyam Raghuraman, Brian Soden, Amy Clement, Gabriel Vecchi, Sofia Menemenlis, Wenchang Yang
Abstract. Global-mean surface temperature rapidly increased 0.27 ± 0.05 K from 2022 to 2023. Such an interannual global warming spike is not unprecedented in the observational record with previous instances occurring in 1956–57 and 1976–77. However, why global warming spikes occur is unknown and the rapid global warming of 2023 has led to concerns that it could have been externally driven. Here we show that climate models that are subject only to internal variability can generate such spikes, but they are an uncommon occurrence (𝑝 = 2.6 ± 0.1 %). However, when a prolonged La Niña immediately precedes an El Niño in the simulations, as occurred in nature in 1956–57, 1976–77, 2022–23, such spikes become much more common (𝑝 = 16.5 ± 0.6 %). Furthermore, we find that nearly all simulated spikes (94 %) are associated with El Niño occurring that year. Thus, our results underscore the importance of El Niño/Southern Oscillation in driving the occurrence of global warming spikes such as the one in 2023, without needing to invoke anthropogenic forcing, such as changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases or aerosols, as an explanation.
摘要从2022年到2023年,全球平均地表温度迅速上升了0.27 ± 0.05 K。在观测记录中,这种跨年度的全球变暖峰值并非没有先例,此前曾在1956-57年和1976-77年出现过。然而,全球变暖峰值出现的原因尚不清楚,2023 年的全球快速变暖导致人们担心它可能是由外部因素驱动的。在这里,我们展示了仅受内部变率影响的气候模型可以产生这种峰值,但这种情况并不常见(𝑝 = 2.6 ± 0.1 %)。然而,当模拟的厄尔尼诺现象之前紧接着出现长时间的拉尼娜现象时,就像自然界在 1956-57 年、1976-77 年和 2022-23 年出现的情况一样,这种峰值就会变得更加常见(𝑝 = 16.5 ± 0.6 %)。此外,我们发现几乎所有的模拟峰值(94%)都与当年发生的厄尔尼诺现象有关。因此,我们的研究结果强调了厄尔尼诺/南方涛动在驱动全球变暖峰值(如 2023 年的峰值)发生方面的重要性,而无需引用人为强迫(如大气中温室气体或气溶胶浓度的变化)作为解释。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamical imprints on precipitation cluster statistics across a hierarchy of high-resolution simulations 高分辨率模拟对降水集群统计的动态影响
IF 6.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-2020
Claudia Christine Stephan, Bjorn Stevens
Abstract. Tropical precipitation cluster area and intensity distributions follow power laws, but the physical processes responsible for this macroscopic behavior remain unknown.We analyze global simulations at ten-kilometer horizontal resolution that are configured to have drastically varying degrees of realism, ranging from global radiative-convective equilibrium to fully realistic atmospheric simulations, to investigate how dynamics influence precipitation statistics. We find the presence of stirring and large-scale vertical overturning, as associated with substantial planetary and synoptic-scale variability, to be key for having cluster statistics approach power laws. The presence of such large-scale dynamics is reflected in steep vertical velocity spectra. Large-scale rising and sinking modulate the column water vapor and temperature field, leading to a heterogeneous distribution of moist and dry patches and regions of strong mass flux, in which large precipitation clusters form. Our findings suggest that power laws in Earth’s precipitation cluster statistics stem from the robust power laws of atmospheric motions.
摘要。热带降水团的面积和强度分布遵循幂律,但导致这种宏观行为的物理过程仍然未知。我们分析了水平分辨率为十公里的全球模拟,这些模拟的配置具有极大的不同真实度,从全球辐射对流平衡到完全真实的大气模拟,以研究动力学如何影响降水统计。我们发现,搅动和大尺度垂直翻转的存在与大量行星和同步尺度变率有关,是集群统计数据接近幂律的关键。陡峭的垂直速度谱反映了这种大尺度动力的存在。大尺度的上升和下沉会调节水汽柱和温度场,导致湿润和干燥斑块的异质分布以及强质量通量区域,在这些区域会形成大型降水团。我们的研究结果表明,地球降水团统计中的幂律源于大气运动的强幂律。
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引用次数: 0
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Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
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