Pub Date : 2022-01-02DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2039026
Steven B. Kim, Joonghak Lee
Since the breakout of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries and local-level governments have made and adjusted decisions to control the movement of people. It is a dilemma because a decision from the perspective of public health and a decision from the perspective of economy (or freedom of people) are too distant on the spectrum of the level of restriction. Yet, some decision makers seek a compromising decision in order to succeed in both public health and economy. Under five assumptions with simple logistic models, we demonstrate hypothetical scenarios for the probability of simultaneous successes (both public health and economy) and the probability of simultaneous failures. The take-home messages are not surprising: We probably want to solve our pandemic crisis sequentially rather than simultaneously, and our responsible actions can lift the probability of simultaneous successes if we desperately need a compromising decision to solve it simultaneously.
{"title":"Approaches to a Dilemma During the Pandemic: Sequential Successes and Simultaneous Successes","authors":"Steven B. Kim, Joonghak Lee","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2039026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2039026","url":null,"abstract":"Since the breakout of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries and local-level governments have made and adjusted decisions to control the movement of people. It is a dilemma because a decision from the perspective of public health and a decision from the perspective of economy (or freedom of people) are too distant on the spectrum of the level of restriction. Yet, some decision makers seek a compromising decision in order to succeed in both public health and economy. Under five assumptions with simple logistic models, we demonstrate hypothetical scenarios for the probability of simultaneous successes (both public health and economy) and the probability of simultaneous failures. The take-home messages are not surprising: We probably want to solve our pandemic crisis sequentially rather than simultaneously, and our responsible actions can lift the probability of simultaneous successes if we desperately need a compromising decision to solve it simultaneously.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"46 1","pages":"34 - 37"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89781529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-02DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2039024
Randy Schutt
Using two very simple coin-toss games, we demonstrate how the laws of probability affect wealth distribution. Even in a group of people who are identical in every way and are only subject to random costs (such as that incurred from severe weather, major illness, and bad accidents) or random benefits (such as those derived from lucky breaks), the distribution of wealth will be nudged towards taking the shape of the normal distribution’s cousin, the probit, with its very unequal allocation. The larger these random costs and benefits are and the more frequently they occur, the more severe inequality will become. Moreover, the inequality will tend to be most extreme at the very top and very bottom of the wealth distribution, reflecting the asymptotic curls at either end of the probit curve.
{"title":"Probit and Wealth Inequality—How Random Events and the Laws of Probability Are Partially Responsible for Wealth Inequality","authors":"Randy Schutt","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2039024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2039024","url":null,"abstract":"Using two very simple coin-toss games, we demonstrate how the laws of probability affect wealth distribution. Even in a group of people who are identical in every way and are only subject to random costs (such as that incurred from severe weather, major illness, and bad accidents) or random benefits (such as those derived from lucky breaks), the distribution of wealth will be nudged towards taking the shape of the normal distribution’s cousin, the probit, with its very unequal allocation. The larger these random costs and benefits are and the more frequently they occur, the more severe inequality will become. Moreover, the inequality will tend to be most extreme at the very top and very bottom of the wealth distribution, reflecting the asymptotic curls at either end of the probit curve.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"12 1","pages":"18 - 25"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81379830","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-02DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2021.2003635
A. Gelman
Ethics questions often arise through intermediaries. Here we discuss the possible actions for a research assistant who has ethical concerns regarding a supervisor's pattern of statistical analysis.
{"title":"Ethical Requirements of a Research Assistant Who Is Concerned About the Behavior of a Supervisor","authors":"A. Gelman","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2021.2003635","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2021.2003635","url":null,"abstract":"Ethics questions often arise through intermediaries. Here we discuss the possible actions for a research assistant who has ethical concerns regarding a supervisor's pattern of statistical analysis.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"34 1","pages":"21 - 22"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90629176","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-02DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2021.2003638
C. Bigelow, A. Nowacki
This article describes the American Statistical Association (ASA) Section on Teaching of Statistics in the Health Sciences (TSHS) resources portal (Portal). The Portal is designed specifically for teachers. It is a repository of publicly available, peer-reviewed health sciences related teaching datasets, together with accompanying (vetted) teaching materials that are available to registered instructors. The Portal is simple to use and can be found at https://www.causeweb.org/tshs/
{"title":"Teaching Statistics in the Health Sciences Resources Portal","authors":"C. Bigelow, A. Nowacki","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2021.2003638","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2021.2003638","url":null,"abstract":"This article describes the American Statistical Association (ASA) Section on Teaching of Statistics in the Health Sciences (TSHS) resources portal (Portal). The Portal is designed specifically for teachers. It is a repository of publicly available, peer-reviewed health sciences related teaching datasets, together with accompanying (vetted) teaching materials that are available to registered instructors. The Portal is simple to use and can be found at https://www.causeweb.org/tshs/","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"6 1","pages":"30 - 33"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80510689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-02DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2021.2003637
H. Wainer
Standardized test scores have been a critical component for admissions decisions for more than a century, but during the time of COVID the gathering of examinees into large halls for supervised and standardized test administration has become unwise and has been discontinued. Admissions decisions have continued anyway without them. Some schools are debating making the change permanent. In this note we discuss the wisdom of such policies invoking historical wisdom. We conclude that when making important decisions about students, inevitably errors will intrude whether test scores are used or not. Bad decisions can still be made using test scores, but they can be made more easily without them.
{"title":"Some Thoughts on a World Without Tests","authors":"H. Wainer","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2021.2003637","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2021.2003637","url":null,"abstract":"Standardized test scores have been a critical component for admissions decisions for more than a century, but during the time of COVID the gathering of examinees into large halls for supervised and standardized test administration has become unwise and has been discontinued. Admissions decisions have continued anyway without them. Some schools are debating making the change permanent. In this note we discuss the wisdom of such policies invoking historical wisdom. We conclude that when making important decisions about students, inevitably errors will intrude whether test scores are used or not. Bad decisions can still be made using test scores, but they can be made more easily without them.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"61 1","pages":"28 - 29"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86059316","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-02DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2021.2003633
Christopher Tong
American steel tycoon and philanthropist Andrew Carnegie (1835-1919) was a member of the American Statistical Association from 1892 until his death. He learned cost accounting at the Pennsylvania Railroad, and later adapted its data-driven approach to managing his steel business. He successfully outperformed competitors by introducing a detailed data collection program within his steel mills, and using the resulting information for personnel management, marketing, and capital investment decisions. Carnegie was also a consumer of US census data, using it extensively in his polemical book Triumphant Democracy to argue in favor of the US political and economic arrangements, as opposed to those of old Europe; and for making decisions on donating public libraries and church organs across the world. However, Carnegie lacked a modern understanding of statistical variation. The statistics profession has advanced, and narrowed, since Carnegie's time, and I argue that Carnegie's modern counterparts in business would not be welcome in the American Statistical Association today.
{"title":"The Statistical Endeavors of Andrew Carnegie","authors":"Christopher Tong","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2021.2003633","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2021.2003633","url":null,"abstract":"American steel tycoon and philanthropist Andrew Carnegie (1835-1919) was a member of the American Statistical Association from 1892 until his death. He learned cost accounting at the Pennsylvania Railroad, and later adapted its data-driven approach to managing his steel business. He successfully outperformed competitors by introducing a detailed data collection program within his steel mills, and using the resulting information for personnel management, marketing, and capital investment decisions. Carnegie was also a consumer of US census data, using it extensively in his polemical book Triumphant Democracy to argue in favor of the US political and economic arrangements, as opposed to those of old Europe; and for making decisions on donating public libraries and church organs across the world. However, Carnegie lacked a modern understanding of statistical variation. The statistics profession has advanced, and narrowed, since Carnegie's time, and I argue that Carnegie's modern counterparts in business would not be welcome in the American Statistical Association today.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"57 1","pages":"12 - 17"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91305610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-02DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2021.2003634
R. Weitzman
Shortly after my retirement, I became involved in local water issues and learned that I could be of especial use in work on those issues because of my background in statistics. What I am reporting here is a minimally-technical account of the experience I had using statistics as a forensic tool to unearth what appears to have been a misuse of statistics in the modeling of the environmental impact of a proposed desalination project to provide water for the community where I reside. Of potential interest to statisticians is how statistics can be useful in detective work.
{"title":"From Divining Rods to Statistics: A Forensic Analysis of the Misuse of Statistics in the Estimation of Environmental Impact","authors":"R. Weitzman","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2021.2003634","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2021.2003634","url":null,"abstract":"Shortly after my retirement, I became involved in local water issues and learned that I could be of especial use in work on those issues because of my background in statistics. What I am reporting here is a minimally-technical account of the experience I had using statistics as a forensic tool to unearth what appears to have been a misuse of statistics in the modeling of the environmental impact of a proposed desalination project to provide water for the community where I reside. Of potential interest to statisticians is how statistics can be useful in detective work.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"1 1","pages":"18 - 20"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82710813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-02DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2021.2003642
E. Wagenmakers
{"title":"Bernoulli’s Fallacy","authors":"E. Wagenmakers","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2021.2003642","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2021.2003642","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"86 1","pages":"37 - 38"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83754865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-02DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2021.2003628
M. Orkin
In this article, I discuss a project in which I analyzed fantasy-like sports data to determine whether these contests were games of skill or games of chance. Based on an argument using p-values, I concluded that these contests were skill-based. The method I employed can also be used to show that other games of this type are skill-based rather than games of pure chance.
{"title":"Games of Chance and Games of Skill","authors":"M. Orkin","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2021.2003628","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2021.2003628","url":null,"abstract":"In this article, I discuss a project in which I analyzed fantasy-like sports data to determine whether these contests were games of skill or games of chance. Based on an argument using p-values, I concluded that these contests were skill-based. The method I employed can also be used to show that other games of this type are skill-based rather than games of pure chance.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"37 1","pages":"4 - 9"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85546241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-02DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2021.2003639
C. Robert
This article contains book reviews of Poems that Solve Puzzles by Chris Bleakley, Quick Calculations by Trevor Davis Lipscombe, The Error of Truth by Steven Osterling, Bernoulli's Fallacy by Aubrey Clayton, and A History of Data Visualization and Graphic Communication by Michael Friendly and Howard Wainer.
{"title":"Quick(er) Calculations","authors":"C. Robert","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2021.2003639","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2021.2003639","url":null,"abstract":"This article contains book reviews of Poems that Solve Puzzles by Chris Bleakley, Quick Calculations by Trevor Davis Lipscombe, The Error of Truth by Steven Osterling, Bernoulli's Fallacy by Aubrey Clayton, and A History of Data Visualization and Graphic Communication by Michael Friendly and Howard Wainer.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"27 1","pages":"34 - 34"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87164379","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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