The open infectious diseases journal最新文献

Introduction: The reasons for malaria resurgence mostly in Africa are yet to be well understood. Although the causes are often linked to regional climate change, it is important to understand the impact of climate variability on the dynamics of the disease. However, this is almost impossible without adequate long-term malaria data over the study areas.

Methods: In this study, we develop a climate-based mosquito-human malaria model to study malaria dynamics in the human population over KwaZulu-Natal, one of the epidemic provinces in South Africa, from 1970-2005. We compare the model output with available observed monthly malaria cases over the province from September 1999 to December 2003. We further use the model outputs to explore the relationship between the climate variables (rainfall and temperature) and malaria incidence over the province using principal component analysis, wavelet power spectrum and wavelet coherence analysis. The model produces a reasonable fit with the observed data and in particular, it captures all the spikes in malaria prevalence.

Results: Our results highlight the importance of climate factors on malaria transmission and show the seasonality of malaria epidemics over the province. Results from the principal component analyses further suggest that, there are two principal factors associated with climates variables and the model outputs. One of the factors indicate high loadings on Susceptible, Exposed and Infected human, while the other is more correlated with Susceptible and Recovered humans. However, both factors reveal the inverse correlation between Susceptible-Infected and Susceptible-Recovered humans respectively. Through the spectrum analysis, we notice a strong annual cycle of malaria incidence over the province and ascertain a dominant of one year periodicity. Consequently, our findings indicate that an average of 0 to 120-day lag is generally noted over the study period, but the 120-day lag is more associated with temperature than rainfall. This is consistence with other results obtained from our analyses that malaria transmission is more tightly coupled with temperature than with rainfall in KwaZulu-Natal province.

Background: The World Health Organization has recommended a patient-centered approach to tuberculosis drug administration. A central element of the patient-centered strategy is the use of treatment supporters to evaluate and elevate adherence to the treatment regimen and to address poor adherence when it occurs. This study was led to determine the part of various treatment supporters in the successful completion of treatment.

Method: This study was conducted in two locales of Sindh, Hyderabad and Mirpurkhas. Information gathered included age, gender, regions, sort of treatment supporters (relatives, community and health facility workers) and treatment outcomes.

Results: Of the 773 patients incorporated into the study, 86.8% picked a family supporter, 7.63% selected community worker and 5.56% chose health facility worker as their treatment supporter. Women and younger patients were more likely to prefer that family members supervise their treatment. Treatment achievement rates among the patients regulated by the three kinds of treatment supporters, were not altogether unique in relation to each other (p=0.23 Chi square).

Conclusion: The study demonstrates that TB patients ought to be urged to pick the supporter of their inclination as selection of treatment supporter outside the health system does not adversely affect TB treatment outcomes in limited resource settings.