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The impact of contact tracing on the spread of COVID-19: an egocentric agent-based model 接触者追踪对COVID-19传播的影响:一个以自我为中心的agent模型
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.21307/CONNECTIONS-2021.022
Andrew Pilny, Lin Xiang, C. Huber, Will R Silberman, Sean Goatley-Soan
Abstract At its core, contact tracing is a form of egocentric network analysis (ENA). One of the biggest obstacles for ENA is informant accuracy (i.e., amount of true contacts identified), which is even more prominent for interaction-based network ties because they often represent episodic relational events, rather than enduring relational states. This research examines the effect of informant accuracy on the spread of COVID-19 through an egocentric, agent-based model. Overall when the average person transmits COVID-19 to 1.62 other people (i.e., the R0), they must be, on average, 75% accurate with naming their contacts. In higher transmission contexts (i.e., transmitting to at least two other people), the results show that multi-level tracing (i.e., contact tracing the contacts) is the only viable strategy. Finally, sensitivity analysis shows that the effectiveness of contact tracing is negatively impacted by the timing and overall percent of asymptomatic cases. Overall, the results suggest that if contact tracing is to be effective, it must be fast, accurate, and accompanied by other interventions like mask-wearing to drive down the average R0.
接触者追踪的核心是一种自我中心网络分析(ENA)。ENA最大的障碍之一是信息的准确性(即确定的真实联系人的数量),这对于基于交互的网络联系来说更为突出,因为它们通常代表偶发的关系事件,而不是持久的关系状态。本研究通过以自我为中心、基于主体的模型检验了信息提供者准确性对COVID-19传播的影响。总体而言,当一个人平均将COVID-19传播给1.62个人(即R0)时,他们说出联系人姓名的准确率平均必须达到75%。在更高的传播环境中(即传播给至少两个人),结果表明,多层次追踪(即接触者追踪接触者)是唯一可行的策略。最后,敏感性分析表明,接触者追踪的有效性受到时间和无症状病例总体百分比的负面影响。总的来说,结果表明,如果接触者追踪是有效的,它必须是快速、准确的,并伴随着其他干预措施,如戴口罩,以降低平均R0。
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引用次数: 0
Chaos from order: a network analysis of in-fighting before and after El Chapo’s arrest 秩序中的混乱:El Chapo被捕前后战斗的网络分析
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.21307/connections-2021.023
Darren Colby
Abstract The effect of leadership decapitation—the capture or killing of the leader of an armed group—on future violence has been studied with competing conclusions. In Mexico, leadership decapitation has been found to increase violence and in-fighting among drug cartels. However, the causal pathways between leadership decapitation and in-fighting are unclear. In this article, it is hypothesized that leadership decapitation will weaken alliances between armed actors, lead to greater preferential attachment in networks of cartels and militias, and result in greater transitive closure as cartels seek to expand their power. These hypotheses are tested with a stochastic actor oriented model on a network dataset of episodes of infighting among cartels and the militias formed to opposed them between the five years before and after Joaquín, “El Chapo” Guzmán Loera, the former leader of the Sinaloa Cartel, was arrested in 2016. The results show that alliances have virtually no effect on the decision of cartels and militias to fight each other; weaker organizations faced a higher reputational cost after El Chapo’s detention; and post-arrest cartel in-fighting did not increase as a result of uncertainty about the relative balance of power among cartels.
摘要研究了领导层斩首(即抓获或杀害武装组织领导人)对未来暴力的影响,得出了相互矛盾的结论。在墨西哥,领导人被斩首被发现会增加暴力和贩毒集团之间的战斗。然而,领导层被斩首和战斗之间的因果关系尚不清楚。在这篇文章中,假设斩首领导层将削弱武装行为者之间的联盟,导致卡特尔和民兵网络中更大的优惠依恋,并在卡特尔寻求扩大其权力时导致更大的过渡性关闭。这些假设是用一个面向参与者的随机模型在一个网络数据集上进行测试的,该数据集包含了2016年锡那罗亚卡特尔前领导人Joaquín“El Chapo”Guzmán Loera被捕前后五年卡特尔和为反对卡特尔而成立的民兵之间的内讧事件。结果表明,联盟对卡特尔和民兵相互作战的决定几乎没有影响;El Chapo被拘留后,实力较弱的组织面临更高的声誉成本;逮捕后卡特尔的战斗并没有因为卡特尔之间相对权力平衡的不确定性而增加。
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引用次数: 0
Social Cohesion and Cooperation for Public Goods 社会凝聚力与公共产品合作
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.21307/CONNECTIONS-2019.020
Jeroen Bruggeman, R. Corten
Abstract A cohesive network keeps groups together and enables members to communicate about and cooperate for public goods. For ongoing cooperation, group members have to know if their group members cooperate or defect, but this information—mostly through gossip—is threatened by noise and biases. If there are redundant information channels, however, errors in monitoring and transmission in one imperfect channel can, to some degree, be corrected by information through another imperfect channel, and may lead to higher levels of cooperation. An influential conceptualization of social cohesion based on redundancy is K-connectivity: the minimum number (K) of node-independent paths connecting pairs of nodes in a group’s network. In a lab experiment, we tested if higher K-connectivity yields higher levels of cooperation for public goods, controlling for a number of other network effects such as density, size, and average distance. We do not find the hypothesized effect, which might be due to a not-earlier-found shortcoming of the concept, and we propose a solution.
一个有凝聚力的网络将群体聚集在一起,使成员能够就公共产品进行交流和合作。对于正在进行的合作,小组成员必须知道他们的小组成员是合作还是背叛,但是这些信息——主要是通过流言——受到噪音和偏见的威胁。然而,如果存在冗余的信息渠道,在一个不完善的渠道中监测和传递的错误在某种程度上可以通过另一个不完善的渠道得到纠正,并可能导致更高水平的合作。基于冗余的社会凝聚力的一个有影响力的概念是K-连通性:连接群体网络中节点对的节点独立路径的最小数量(K)。在一个实验室实验中,我们测试了更高的k -连通性是否会产生更高水平的公共产品合作,控制了许多其他网络效应,如密度、大小和平均距离。我们没有发现假设的效果,这可能是由于我们之前没有发现这个概念的缺点,我们提出了一个解决方案。
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引用次数: 1
Commentary: How to do personal network surveys: from name generators to statistical modeling 评论:如何做个人网络调查:从名字生成器到统计建模
Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.21307/connections-2019.015
I. Maya-Jariego
Abstract The book “Conducting Personal Network Research” is a conceptual and methodological introduction to the structural study of personal networks. It is part of a series of recent monographs that have begun to systematize the knowledge generated in this area in recent decades (Crossley et al., 2015; McCarty et al., 2019; Perry et al., 2018). In this case, the authors have dedicated a large part of their career to the empirical investigation of the interpersonal relationships, interaction contexts, and social integration processes of immigrants, along with other groups in vulnerable situations. With this publication, all this experience is now reflected in a clear and comprehensive introductory text. This book explains how to integrate relational data collection and analysis with survey research. It systematically presents the strategies to estimate the size of personal networks. Finally, it describes how to fit statistical analysis to relational data, including regression models, multi-level models, and longitudinal models.
摘要《进行个人网络研究》一书是对个人网络结构研究的概念和方法论介绍。它是最近几十年来开始将该领域产生的知识系统化的一系列专著的一部分(Crossley等人,2015;McCarty等人,2019;Perry等人,2018)。在这种情况下,作者将其职业生涯的大部分时间用于对移民以及其他弱势群体的人际关系、互动环境和社会融合过程的实证调查。有了这份出版物,所有这些经验现在都反映在一份清晰而全面的介绍性文本中。本书解释了如何将关系数据收集和分析与调查研究相结合。它系统地提出了估计个人网络规模的策略。最后,它描述了如何将统计分析与关系数据相匹配,包括回归模型、多层次模型和纵向模型。
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引用次数: 2
Embarked on social processes (the rivers) in dynamic and multilevel networks (the boats) 在动态和多层次的网络(船只)中开始社会进程(河流)
Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.21307/connections-2019.013
E. Lazega
Abstract This paper is the written text underlying the keynote presentation at the Sunbelt XXXVIII in Utrecht, 2018. It presents a neo-structural approach to social processes in the organizational society and the usefulness of the analyses of multilevel networks to understand how we navigate these processes and are made aware of them when we face cooperation dilemmas. Empirical illustrations look at how multilevel networks and relational infrastructures are useful to research a process such as coopetitive learning in science, business and government. A conclusion focuses on the role of multilevel relational infrastructures in institutional entrepreneurship, social change and politics, as well as on our responsibility to develop our knowledge of these social processes and multilevel relational infrastructures as open science.
摘要本文是2018年在乌得勒支举行的Sunbelt XXXVIII主题演讲的书面文本。它提出了一种新结构的方法来处理组织社会中的社会过程,以及多层次网络分析的有用性,以了解我们如何驾驭这些过程,并在我们面临合作困境时意识到它们。实证说明了多层次网络和关系基础设施如何有助于研究科学、商业和政府中的合作竞争学习等过程。结论集中于多级关系基础设施在机构创业、社会变革和政治中的作用,以及我们作为开放科学发展对这些社会过程和多级关系基础结构的知识的责任。
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引用次数: 0
Clients’ outcomes from providers’ networks: the role of relational exclusivity and complementary capabilities 客户从供应商网络中获得的结果:关系排他性和互补能力的作用
Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.21307/connections-2019.011
Denis Trapido, F. Pallotti, A. Lomi
Abstract Organizations have leeway in how much they employ their network relations to the benefit of their clients. When do they do so more rather than less? Relying on research on trust and knowledge absorption, the authors suggest that providers’ network relations generate better outcomes for their clients when these relations are concentrated in a limited, exclusive set of partners. The authors argue that providers’ relational exclusivity benefits clients because it facilitates the awareness and use of partners’ complementary client service capabilities. An analysis of a regional network of patient referrals among 110 hospitals supported this argument. The study highlights the role of interorganizational partnership networks in activating client service capabilities and stimulates further inquiry into providers’ network features that benefit the users of their services.
抽象组织在多大程度上利用网络关系为客户谋利方面有回旋余地。他们什么时候做得更多而不是更少?根据对信任和知识吸收的研究,作者认为,当提供者的网络关系集中在有限的、排他性的合作伙伴中时,这些关系会为他们的客户带来更好的结果。作者认为,提供者的关系排他性有利于客户,因为它有助于了解和使用合作伙伴互补的客户服务能力。对110家医院的区域转诊患者网络的分析支持了这一论点。该研究强调了组织间伙伴关系网络在激活客户服务能力方面的作用,并促进了对供应商的网络特征的进一步调查,这些特征有利于其服务的用户。
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引用次数: 0
COVID-19 Health Communication Networks on Twitter: Identifying Sources, Disseminators, and Brokers 推特上的新冠肺炎健康传播网络:识别来源、传播者和经纪人
Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.21307/connections-2019.018
Ian Kim, T. Valente
Abstract Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19)’s devastating effects on the physical and mental health of the public are unlike previous medical crises, in part because of people’s collective access to communication technologies. Unfortunately, a clear understanding of the diffusion of health information on social media is lacking, which has a potentially negative impact on the effectiveness of emergency communication. This study applied social network analysis approaches to examine patterns of #COVID19 information flow on Twitter. A total of 1,404,496 publicly available tweets from 946,940 U.S. users were retrieved and analyzed. Particular attention was paid to the structures of retweet and mention networks and identification of influential users: information sources, disseminators, and brokers. Overall, COVID-19 information was not transmitted efficiently. Findings pointed to the importance of fostering connections between clusters to promote the diffusion in both networks. Lots of localized clusters limited the spread of timely information, causing difficulty in establishing any momentum in shaping urgent public actions. Rather than health and communication professionals, there was dominant involvement of non-professional users responsible for major COVID-19 information generation and dissemination, suggesting a lack of credibility and accuracy in the information. Inadequate influence of health officials and government agencies in brokering information contributed to concerns about the spread of dis/misinformation to the public. Significant differences in the type of influential users existed across roles and across networks. Conceptual and practical implications for emergency communication strategies are discussed.
摘要2019年冠状病毒疾病(新冠肺炎)对公众身心健康的破坏性影响不同于以往的医疗危机,部分原因是人们集体获得了通信技术。不幸的是,人们对社交媒体上健康信息的传播缺乏明确的了解,这可能会对紧急沟通的有效性产生负面影响。这项研究应用社交网络分析方法来研究推特上#COVID19信息流的模式。共检索并分析了946940名美国用户的1404496条公开推文。特别关注转发和提及网络的结构以及有影响力的用户的识别:信息来源、传播者和经纪人。总体而言,新冠肺炎信息没有得到有效传播。研究结果指出,促进集群之间的联系对于促进两个网络中的传播具有重要意义。许多本地化的集群限制了及时信息的传播,导致难以在形成紧急公共行动方面建立任何势头。负责新冠肺炎主要信息生成和传播的非专业用户主要参与,而不是卫生和通信专业人员,这表明信息缺乏可信度和准确性。卫生官员和政府机构在信息中介方面的影响力不足,加剧了人们对向公众传播虚假信息的担忧。不同角色和不同网络的影响力用户类型存在显著差异。讨论了应急沟通策略的概念和实践意义。
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引用次数: 7
Hairball Buster: A Graph Triage Method for Viewing and Comparing Graphs 毛球终结者:查看和比较图形的图形分类方法
Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.21307/CONNECTIONS-2019.009
Patrick D. Allen, Mark Alan Matties, Elisha Peterson
Abstract Hairball buster (HB) (also called node-neighbor centrality or NNC) is an approach to graph analytic triage that uses simple calculations and visualization to quickly understand and compare graphs. Rather than displaying highly interconnected graphs as ‘hairballs’ that are difficult to understand, HB provides a simple standard visual representation of a graph and its metrics, combining a monotonically decreasing curve of node metrics with indicators of each node’s neighbors’ metrics. The HB visual is canonical, in the sense that it provides a standard output for each node-link graph. It helps analysts quickly identify areas for further investigation, and also allows for easy comparison between graphs of different data sets. The calculations required for creating an HB display is order M plus N log N, where N is the number of nodes and M is the number of edges. This paper includes examples of the HB approach applied to four real-world data sets. It also compares HB to similar visual approaches such as degree histograms, adjacency matrices, blockmodeling, and force-based layout techniques. HB presents greater information density than other algorithms at lower or equal calculation cost, efficiently presenting information in a single display that is not available in any other single display.
Hairball buster (HB)(也称为节点邻居中心性或NNC)是一种图形分析分类方法,它使用简单的计算和可视化来快速理解和比较图形。HB没有将高度互连的图形显示为难以理解的“毛球”,而是提供了图形及其指标的简单标准可视化表示,将节点指标的单调递减曲线与每个节点邻居指标的指标相结合。HB可视化是规范的,因为它为每个节点链接图提供了标准输出。它可以帮助分析人员快速确定需要进一步调查的领域,还可以方便地比较不同数据集的图形。创建HB显示所需的计算是o (M + N log N),其中N是节点的数量,M是边的数量。本文包括HB方法应用于四个真实世界数据集的例子。它还将HB与类似的视觉方法进行了比较,如度直方图、邻接矩阵、块建模和基于力的布局技术。与其他算法相比,HB以更低或相同的计算成本提供了更大的信息密度,有效地在单个显示器中显示任何其他单个显示器无法提供的信息。
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引用次数: 2
Visualizing Multilevel Networks for the Analysis of Superposed Levels of Collective Agency 可视化多层网络分析集体代理的叠加层次
Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.21307/CONNECTIONS-2019.019
E. Lazega
Abstract This picture, produced by Julien Brailly et al. (2016) and David Schoch (2020), visualizes multilevel networks of individuals and organizations.
这张图片由Julien Brailly等人(2016)和David Schoch(2020)制作,可视化了个人和组织的多层次网络。
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引用次数: 1
Academic Collaboration via Resource Contributions: An Egocentric Dataset 通过资源贡献的学术合作:一个以自我为中心的数据集
Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.21307/CONNECTIONS-2019.010
M. Bojanowski, Dominika Czerniawska, Wojciech Fenrich
Abstract In order to understand scientists’ incentives to form collaborative relations, we have conducted a study looking into academically relevant resources, which scientists contribute into collaborations with others. The data we describe in this paper are an egocentric dataset assembled by coding originally qualitative material. It is 40 multiplex ego networks containing data on individual attributes (such as gender, scientific degree), collaboration ties (including alter–alter ties), and resource flows. Resources are coded using a developed inventory of 25 types of academically relevant resources egos and alters contribute into their collaborations. We share the data with the research community with the hopes of enriching knowledge and tools for studying sociological and behavioral aspects of science as a social process.
为了了解科学家形成合作关系的动机,我们进行了一项研究,研究了科学家在与他人合作时贡献的学术相关资源。本文描述的数据是一个以自我为中心的数据集,由原始定性材料编码而成。它是40个多重自我网络,包含个人属性(如性别、科学程度)、协作关系(包括alter-alter关系)和资源流动的数据。资源编码使用25种学术相关资源的开发清单,自我和改变为他们的合作做出贡献。我们与研究界分享数据,希望丰富知识和工具,以研究作为社会过程的科学的社会学和行为学方面。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Connections (Toronto, Ont.)
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