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Measuring fiscal policy sustainability in developing Asia: what does the Markov Switching Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test tell us? 衡量亚洲发展中国家财政政策的可持续性:马尔科夫转换增强型迪基-富勒检验法能告诉我们什么?
Pub Date : 2023-12-15 DOI: 10.37907/5erp3202d
Dannah Ysabel Premacio, Ezra Rebecca Vidar, T. Monsod
This paper measures fiscal sustainability in 22 developing Asian countries for the period 1999–2017. Previous literature generates conflicting results: one paper applies the usual stationarity and cointegration tests and finds that fiscal policy is sustainable but in weak form. Another paper employs a fiscal reaction function and finds that fiscal policy is unsustainable. This paper uses an expanded version of the Markov Switching Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (MS-ADF), which remedies the shortcomings of conventional stationarity tests to provide more statistical power in the presence of nonlinearities and structural breaks. The MS-ADF has never been applied to this set of countries. Results show that the majority of the countries have “uncertain” debt trajectories, not definitively sustainable or unsustainable but somewhere in-between. This is a more nuanced picture of the debt trajectories in the region relative to what is obtained using the established methods. A more nuanced assessment could lead to more suitable policy corrections.
本文衡量了 22 个亚洲发展中国家在 1999-2017 年期间的财政可持续性。以往的文献得出了相互矛盾的结果:一篇论文采用了通常的静态和协整检验,发现财政政策是可持续的,但形式较弱。另一篇论文采用了财政反应函数,发现财政政策是不可持续的。本文使用了扩大版的马尔可夫转换增量迪基-富勒检验法(MS-ADF),它弥补了传统静态检验法的不足,在存在非线性和结构断裂的情况下提供了更强的统计能力。MS-ADF 从未应用于这组国家。结果表明,大多数国家的债务轨迹是 "不确定的",不是确定的可持续或不可持续,而是介于两者之间。这与使用既定方法得出的结果相比,对该地区债务轨迹的描述更加细致入微。更细致的评估可以带来更合适的政策调整。
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引用次数: 0
Diamond and Dybvig in developing economies and in a digital world 发展中经济体和数字世界中的 Diamond 和 Dybvig
Pub Date : 2023-12-15 DOI: 10.37907/3erp3202d
Margarita Debuque-Gonzales
The Nobel prize-winning article of Douglas Diamond and Philip Dybvig, entitled “Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity” and published by the Journal of Political Economy in 1983, has spawned a large literature, including on emerging markets and developing economies. In a nod to Diamond and Dybvig, this paper reviews this subset of the literature, which has received relatively less attention than the rest despite the greater risk of banking crises in these economies; it then examines whether the seminal article remains relevant against the rapid digital transformation of financial systems today. Models that adopted their basic ideas helped drive home the importance of maintaining sound macroeconomic fundamentals and keeping confidence levels high in bank-centered economies. Similarly applying their framework to assess the impact of the current evolution of financial systems also reveals valuable insights, such as low risk from financial technology, for now, but possible shadow banks in those settings, and allows for generally better analysis, including pointing out possible blind spots when adopting new concepts, such as central-bank-issued digital currencies.
道格拉斯-戴蒙德(Douglas Diamond)和菲利普-戴布维格(Philip Dybvig)于 1983 年在《政治经济学杂志》上发表了题为《银行挤兑、存款保险和流动性》的诺贝尔奖文章,这篇文章催生了大量文献,包括关于新兴市场和发展中经济体的文献。为了向戴蒙德和戴比维格致敬,本文回顾了这部分文献,尽管这些经济体发生银行危机的风险更大,但对这部分文献的关注却相对较少。在以银行为中心的经济体中,采用其基本观点的模型有助于让人们认识到维持稳健的宏观经济基本面和保持较高信心水平的重要性。同样,运用他们的框架来评估当前金融体系演变的影响,也能揭示出一些有价值的见解,比如目前金融技术带来的风险较低,但在这些环境下可能会出现影子银行,并能进行总体上更好的分析,包括指出在采用中央银行发行的数字货币等新概念时可能存在的盲点。
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引用次数: 0
Shared prosperity characterized by four development goals: pro-poor growth, pro-poor development, inclusive growth, and inclusive development 以四个发展目标为特征的共同繁荣:有利于穷人的增长、有利于穷人的发展、包容性增长和包容性发展
Pub Date : 2023-12-15 DOI: 10.37907/1erp3202d
N. Kakwani, Zakaria Siddiqui
This paper is on shared prosperity and its measurement. Economic growth enhances total prosperity, increasing the economic pie in society, but the pie distribution determines how the population shares the pie. Based on a social welfare framework, we have developed an integrated methodology to evaluate growth and distribution simultaneously. Linking the two phenomena gives rise to four development goals: (i) pro-poor growth, (ii) inclusive growth, (iii) pro-poor development, and (iv) inclusive development. These four goals provide an alternative characterization of shared prosperity. The paper defines the four goals, providing a methodology to operationalize them using real-world data. The empirically measured goals inform at what rate the shared prosperity is enhancing in any country or the world. The methodology is applied globally to determine whether the growth and development have been pro-poor and inclusive in 173 countries over the two decades in the new millennium.
本文探讨共同富裕及其衡量方法。经济增长能促进总体繁荣,增加社会的经济蛋糕,但蛋糕的分配决定了人口如何分享蛋糕。基于社会福利框架,我们开发了一种综合方法来同时评估增长和分配。将这两种现象联系起来,就产生了四个发展目标:(i) 有利于穷人的增长,(ii) 包容性增长,(iii) 有利于穷人的发展,以及 (iv) 包容性发展。这四个目标为共同繁荣提供了另一种表征。本文对这四个目标进行了定义,并提供了一种利用现实世界数据将其操作化的方法。通过实证测量的目标可以了解共同繁荣在任何国家或世界的提升速度。该方法适用于全球,以确定在新千年的二十年里,173 个国家的增长和发展是否有利于穷人,是否具有包容性。
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引用次数: 0
Piketty inequality, meta-market failures and the new role of the state 皮凯蒂的不平等、元市场失灵和国家的新角色
Pub Date : 2023-12-15 DOI: 10.37907/2erp3202d
Raul Fabella
We argue that the celebrated 2014 Piketty thesis that thriving markets in advanced economies generate an ever increasing income inequality restores policy relevance to the Second Fundamental Theorem of Welfare and restores the role of the state in economics which the First Fundamental Theorem of Welfare seems, and the neoconservatives claim, to have marginalized. The Piketty thesis disproves the Kuznets hypothesis which says that the equity-deficit of market allocation is a temporary inconvenience which will dissipate as per capita income grows, thus, making state intervention unnecessary. Policies that enhance per capita growth may then replace policies of direct redistribution in the pursuit of equity. Piketty insists that this phenomenon is not due to some garden variety market failure but is due to the very dynamic that drives market prosperity, viz., private ownership of and the free enterprise deployment of capital. It is thus a meta-market failure. In properly functioning capitalist markets henceforth, the state still needs to directly push back on this metamarket failure to save capitalism from its own excesses and democracy from becoming collateral damage.
我们认为,2014 年著名的皮凯蒂(Piketty)论断认为,发达经济体中繁荣的市场会导致收入不平等不断加剧,这一论断恢复了 "福利第二基本定理 "的政策相关性,并恢复了国家在经济学中的作用,而 "福利第一基本定理 "似乎已经将国家的作用边缘化,新保守主义者也声称已经将国家的作用边缘化。皮凯蒂理论推翻了库兹涅茨假说,该假说认为市场分配的公平赤字只是暂时的不便,会随着人均收入的增长而消散,从而使国家干预变得没有必要。届时,促进人均收入增长的政策可能会取代直接再分配政策,以追求公平。皮凯蒂坚持认为,这种现象不是因为市场失灵,而是因为推动市场繁荣的动力,即资本的私人所有权和自由企业配置。因此,这是一种元市场失灵。在今后正常运作的资本主义市场中,国家仍然需要直接反击这种元市场失灵,使资本主义免于自身的过激行为,使民主免于成为附带损害。
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引用次数: 0
The 16th century Carrera del Pacífico: its sailor-merchants and their trade goods 16 世纪的卡雷拉太平洋:水手商人及其贸易产品
Pub Date : 2023-12-15 DOI: 10.37907/6erp3202d
Kristyl N. Obispado
This article focuses on the sailors who served during the initial years of the Carrera del Pacífico, one of the globalizing projects of the Spanish Monarchy. In particular, the paper aims to examine the sailors who took advantage of the Pacific trade circuits by actively participating in various income-generating activities created by the Carrera. Using the sailors’ economic endeavors, especially as sailor-merchants, as a lens can elucidate how early global trade was conducted and demonstrate the dynamics of the early Pacific trade. The paper argues that by seizing the opportunities presented by the Carrera, primarily by assuming the dual roles of sailors and merchants, these laborers helped consolidate the Spanish-Pacific region and reshape the consumption pattern of its local population. The sailors engaged in the transportation, sale, and purchase of global commodities during the early modern period, including textiles and chinaware, which catered to the demands of the broader consumer base in Spanish America. The sources draw data from the Royal Treasury of Acapulco registers during its first decade (1590-1600), where 1,574 sailors were identified. It belongs to Archivo General de Indias’ Contaduría (Account) records, which contain the duties of commodities entering and leaving the port of Acapulco.
太平洋卡雷拉计划是西班牙君主制的全球化项目之一,本文重点关注在该计划初期服役的水手。特别是,本文旨在研究那些利用太平洋贸易通道,积极参与卡雷拉计划所创造的各种创收活动的水手。以水手的经济努力,尤其是水手-商人为视角,可以阐明早期全球贸易是如何进行的,并展示早期太平洋贸易的动态。本文认为,通过抓住卡雷拉河带来的机遇,主要是通过承担水手和商人的双重角色,这些劳工帮助巩固了西班牙-太平洋地区,并重塑了当地居民的消费模式。水手们在近代早期从事全球商品的运输、销售和采购,包括纺织品和瓷器,这些商品迎合了西班牙美洲广大消费者的需求。资料来源取自阿卡普尔科皇家财政部第一个十年(1590-1600 年)的登记册,其中确定了 1574 名水手的身份。它属于 Archivo General de Indias 的 Contaduría(账目)记录,其中包含进出阿卡普尔科港商品的关税。
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引用次数: 0
Toward a general neoclassical theory of economic growth 迈向经济增长的一般新古典理论
Pub Date : 2023-12-15 DOI: 10.37907/4erp3202d
Delano Villanueva
The Harrod-Domar (H-D) growth model assumes a fixed capital-output ratio, signifying absence of substitutability between capital and labor, leading to a “knife-edge” problem wherein balanced growth of capital (fixed warranted rate) and labor (fixed natural rate) occurs only by accident, preventing the attainment of macroeconomic stability with full employment. The neoclassical Solow-Swan (S-S) growth model provides an elegant solution to the H-D problem by endogenizing the warranted rate via the saving-investment relation, wherein capital growth is a function of a fully adjusting income-capital ratio (inverse of the H-D capital-output ratio)— allowing for smooth substitutability between capital and labor while keeping the natural rate exogenously fixed. The S-S model implies a positive, albeit temporary output growth effect of a higher saving rate. The present paper extends the capital-labor ratio’s influence onto the natural rate via effects on labor productivity through a modified Arrow learning by doing framework, and via labor participation through real wage adjustments. Thus, the positive output growth of a higher saving rate, although temporary in the short run as in the S-S model, is permanent in the long run through adjustments in both the warranted and natural rates—a generalization of the Solow-Swan model.
哈罗德-多马(Harrod-Domar,H-D)增长模型假定资本-产出比率固定不变,这意味着资本和劳动力之间不存在可替代性,从而导致了一个 "刀刃 "问题,即资本(固定的担保利率)和劳动力(固定的自然利率)的均衡增长只是偶然出现,无法实现充分就业的宏观经济稳定。新古典索洛-斯万(S-S)增长模型为 H-D 问题提供了一个优雅的解决方案,它通过储蓄-投资关系内生保证利率,其中资本增长是完全调整的收入-资本比率(H-D 资本-产出比率的倒数)的函数--允许资本和劳动力之间的平稳替代性,同时保持自然利率的外生固定。S-S 模型意味着较高的储蓄率会对产出增长产生积极影响,尽管这种影响是暂时的。本文通过修正的 "边干边学"(Arrow learning by doing)框架对劳动生产率的影响,以及通过实际工资调整对劳动参与的影响,将资本-劳动比率对自然利率的影响扩大。因此,较高储蓄率带来的产出正增长,尽管在短期内与 S-S 模型中一样是暂时的,但在长期内,通过对合理储蓄率和自然储蓄率的调整,是永久性的--这是对索洛-斯万模型的概括。
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引用次数: 0
Care workers’ sense of responsibility, working conditions, and the quality of care in South Korea 韩国护理人员的责任感、工作条件和护理质量
Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI: 10.37907/8erp3202j
Shirin Arslan, Arnob Alam, M. Floro, Seung-Eun Cha, E. Kang
As countries like South Korea expand their paid care services, ensuring quality care has become critical. Since care work involves significant emotional labor, a worker’s sense of responsibility for the care recipient's well-being affects the quality of care delivered. In this study, we explore this particular determinant of quality care that has been underexplored to better understand its nature. However, a worker's sense of responsibility or commitment level is not static and varies depending on various factors including working conditions. Using 2018 Korean childcare and eldercare survey data, we empirically examine the relationship between a worker's commitment levels and working conditions by conducting Tobit and generalized maximum entropy (GME) analyses. Results indicate that training, shorter commutes, predictable schedules, and easy interactions with the care recipient’s family are associated with higher levels of commitment. Our findings highlight the importance of supportive working conditions in promoting quality care.
随着韩国等国扩大其有偿护理服务,确保优质护理变得至关重要。由于护理工作涉及大量的情绪劳动,工作人员对护理对象的幸福感的责任感会影响所提供护理的质量。在这项研究中,我们探讨了这一特殊的决定因素的质量护理,尚未充分探讨,以更好地了解其性质。然而,一个工人的责任感或承诺水平不是一成不变的,而是根据包括工作条件在内的各种因素而变化的。利用2018年韩国儿童保育和老年人护理调查数据,我们通过Tobit和广义最大熵(GME)分析,实证检验了工人的承诺水平与工作条件之间的关系。结果表明,培训、较短的通勤时间、可预测的日程安排以及与护理对象家庭的轻松互动与较高的承诺水平相关。我们的研究结果强调了支持性工作条件对提高护理质量的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Care work and the demographic composition of households: two Asian cases 护理工作和家庭人口组成:两个亚洲病例
Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI: 10.37907/7erp3202j
E. King, Hannah L. Randolph, Jooyeoun Suh
Who provides unpaid caregiving within the household is of economic and policy relevance. This paper examines how care activities are shared among household members, the extent to which women and men substitute for each other in care and work activities, and whether or not they realize economies of scale in care work. Mongolia and South Korea have nationally representative time-use survey data that allow an exploration of these questions. These two countries differ in their level of economic development and industrial structure, demographic profile, and household composition, providing a comparative perspective on the allocation of time to childcare, domestic work and market work within households. The maximum likelihood estimation results reveal significant evidence of substitution between men and women in childcare, but much less so in domestic work or indirect care, and economies of scale in the care of young children and in women's domestic work.
谁在家庭内提供无偿护理具有经济和政策相关性。本文研究了家庭成员之间如何分担护理活动,妇女和男子在护理和工作活动中相互替代的程度,以及他们是否在护理工作中实现了规模经济。蒙古和韩国有全国代表性的时间使用调查数据,可以探索这些问题。这两个国家在经济发展水平和产业结构、人口结构和家庭组成方面存在差异,从比较的角度看待家庭内儿童保育、家务劳动和市场工作的时间分配。最大似然估计结果揭示了男性和女性在儿童保育方面存在替代的重要证据,但在家务劳动或间接护理方面则不然,在幼儿护理和女性家务劳动方面也存在规模经济。
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引用次数: 0
Child and elderly care in South Korea: policy analysis with a gendered, care-focused computable general equilibrium model 韩国的儿童和老年人护理:政策分析与性别,护理为重点的可计算一般均衡模型
Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI: 10.37907/3erp3202j
M. Cicowiez, H. Lofgren
The Republic of Korea is characterized by rapid growth of its elderly population, a stagnant working-age population, the world’s lowest total fertility rate, and the largest gender wage gap among the OECD countries. The heavy domestic and care work performed by women who receive little or no help from male household members constrains their labor force participation. The government strives to reduce the growing care burden of households, particularly among women, and raise female labor force participation rates as well as fertility rates. We examine the impact of various policy options to attain these objectives using a gendered computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Korea. It is the first model in the literature using time use data with a focus on care services provided by the market and households. The simulations focus on the impact of policies that expand public care, provide subsidies to care provided by households or the private sector and reduce female wage discrimination. The results indicate that these policies improve the welfare of households with care responsibilities by freeing up time for women to take on jobs that pay better. Their broader economic impact, however, depends on the flexibility of gender roles in the division of labor both in households and in the broader economy.
大韩民国的特点是老年人口迅速增长,工作年龄人口停滞不前,总生育率世界最低,在经合发组织国家中男女工资差距最大。妇女从事繁重的家务和照料工作,很少或根本得不到男性家庭成员的帮助,这限制了她们参加劳动。政府努力减轻家庭,特别是妇女日益增加的照顾负担,并提高妇女的劳动参与率和生育率。我们研究了各种政策选择的影响,以实现这些目标使用性别可计算的一般均衡(CGE)模型为韩国。这是文献中第一个使用时间使用数据的模型,重点关注市场和家庭提供的护理服务。模拟的重点是扩大公共护理、为家庭或私营部门提供护理提供补贴以及减少女性工资歧视的政策的影响。结果表明,这些政策通过为女性腾出时间从事收入更高的工作,改善了有照顾责任的家庭的福利。然而,其更广泛的经济影响取决于家庭和更广泛的经济分工中性别角色的灵活性。
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引用次数: 1
Unemployment and monetary policy: a revisit and new job strategies 失业和货币政策:重新审视和新的就业策略
Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI: 10.37907/1erp3202j
D. Canlas
This paper revisits the natural unemployment rate and some studies of labor markets with search frictions that it has inspired. New job strategies being proposed suggest a need for an enhanced labor market research agenda, which looks at additional movements in the labor force. New directions in the conduct of monetary policy beyond concerns over dangers to banks and financial markets posed by interest-rate adjustment may follow as a matter of course in the context of newly emerged labor market policy.
本文重新审视了自然失业率,以及它所激发的对具有搜索摩擦的劳动力市场的一些研究。正在提出的新的就业策略表明,有必要加强劳动力市场研究议程,该议程着眼于劳动力的额外流动。在新出现的劳动力市场政策背景下,除了担心利率调整对银行和金融市场造成的危险之外,货币政策的实施可能会出现新的方向。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
The Philippine review of economics
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