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National Health Insurance Program financing during the COVID-19 pandemic: financial viability and COVID-19大流行期间的国家健康保险计划融资:财务可行性和
Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.37907/7erp1202jd
Carlos Antonio Tan Jr., N. Sugay, Maria Sylvia C. Nachura, K. Miradora, Abba Marie Moreno, J. Nieva, J. Encluna
This paper examines the state of National Health Insurance Program (NHIP) financing during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Philippines, an event which coincides with the implementation of the Universal Health Care (UHC) mandates on restructuring the NHIP premium schedule, providing immediate eligibility to NHIP benefits, and expanding member benefits. Using the ratio of total expenditures to total revenues as the measure of financial viability, it shows that the NHIP remains financially viable during the COVID-19 pandemic year of 2020. Projections for 2021 however show that NHIP financial viability may be adversely affected by the significantly higher number of COVID-19 cases with the negative effect mitigated only if COVID-19 benefit claim patterns remain as weak as observed for 2020. On the revenue side, the potential for a lower premium is observed to be offset by the higher rates in the UHC mandated premium schedule. On the expenditure side, potential increases associated with the implementation of immediate eligibility and the introduction of COVID-19 benefits are mitigated by lower NHIP benefit utilization due to reduced mobility and access to health facilities. Secondary analysis on who has to bear the burden of paying for NHIP benefits, however, shows that the implementation of UHC financing initiatives may heighten adverse incentives on members’ willingness to pay premiums. Using the benefit expenditure-premium contribution ratio as the measure for the burden of paying for NHIP benefits, it is shown that the Formal Economy sector shoulders the burden of funding the NHIP benefits of the Informal Economy and Sponsored sectors.
本文研究了菲律宾新冠肺炎大流行期间国家健康保险计划(NHIP)的融资状况,这一事件与全民医疗(UHC)关于重组NHIP保费计划、提供NHIP福利的即时资格以及扩大会员福利的授权的实施相吻合。使用总支出与总收入的比率作为衡量财务可行性的指标,它表明NHIP在2020年新冠肺炎大流行期间仍然具有财务可行性。然而,2021年的预测显示,新冠肺炎病例数显著增加可能会对NHIP的财务生存能力产生不利影响,只有在新冠肺炎福利申请模式与2020年一样疲软的情况下,负面影响才会减轻。在收入方面,UHC强制保费表中较高的费率抵消了较低保费的潜力。在支出方面,由于流动性和进入卫生设施的机会减少,NHIP福利利用率降低,缓解了与实施即时资格和引入新冠肺炎福利相关的潜在增长。然而,对谁必须承担NHIP福利支付负担的二次分析表明,全民健康保险融资举措的实施可能会加剧对成员支付保费意愿的不利激励。使用福利支出溢价贡献率作为支付NHIP福利负担的衡量标准,表明正规经济部门承担着为非正规经济和赞助部门的NHIP福利提供资金的负担。
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引用次数: 0
Life in the times of the COVID-19 pandemic: the experiences and responses of households in Guimaras and Miagao, Iloilo 2019冠状病毒病大流行时期的生活:伊洛伊洛州吉马拉斯和米亚高家庭的经历和应对
Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.37907/6erp1202jd
L. M. Eluriaga, Lylve Maliz Zeller, Gay Margarett Gange, A. Ferrer
This paper assesses the experience and responses to the COVID-19 pandemic of households in the province of Guimaras and the municipality of Miagao to gain insights and lessons that can be applied during similar disruptions in the future. Survey data using a questionnaire were collected in July to early August 2020 from 580 households in Guimaras and 401 households in Miagao using convenience sampling. As a health threat, COVID-19 caused many households to feel unsafe and worried. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the economic vulnerability of households to disruptions affecting their livelihood and income sources. The effects on loss of livelihood and income sources were worse with lower-income households whose income status and the ability to meet basic needs were worse than the pre-pandemic period. The paper recommends several approaches and interventions to improve household resilience and to be better prepared for similar challenges and threats in the future.
本文评估了吉马拉斯省和米高市家庭在2019冠状病毒病大流行中的经验和应对措施,以获得可用于未来类似中断的见解和教训。采用方便抽样法,于2020年7月至8月初对吉马拉斯市580户家庭和米高市401户家庭进行问卷调查。作为一种健康威胁,COVID-19使许多家庭感到不安全和担忧。2019冠状病毒病大流行凸显了家庭在生计和收入来源受到干扰时的经济脆弱性。对低收入家庭的生计和收入来源损失的影响更大,他们的收入状况和满足基本需求的能力比大流行前时期差。本文建议了几种方法和干预措施,以提高家庭抵御能力,并为未来类似的挑战和威胁做好更好的准备。
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引用次数: 1
The COVID-19 outbreak and its impact on business establishments: a study on challenges and strategic approaches 新冠肺炎疫情及其对商业机构的影响:关于挑战和战略方法的研究
Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.37907/8erp1202jd
Aurora Hidalgo, Viory Yvonne Janeo, Winston Conrad B. Padojinog, Cid Terosa, Peter L. U, J. Yap
The Management Association of the Philippines (MAP) commissioned the School of Economics of the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) to conduct a study aimed at understanding the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on various industry sectors and to draw possible policy measures for both government and private institutions to help the affected sectors deal with the pandemic’s negative effects and gradually return to stable business operations. An online survey of pre-selected thirty-three (33) representatives from key priority sectors which recorded sharp contractions in the first two quarters of 2020 and which had a share to GDP of above 1 percent was conducted. To validate the survey results, stakeholder interviews were also conducted with more than 10 firms via the zoom video conferencing platform. The survey results confirmed the negative impact of the pandemic at the firm-level (i.e., decrease in employee compensation, decline in headcount, loss of revenue and other liquidity crunches, prolonged collection periods, problems in logistics, delayed or cancelled projects and disrupted supply chains and access to labor; among others). Some have had to close branches or altogether cease operations. The sudden and likely permanent shift towards digitization of operations has disrupted operations and exerted pressure to digitally transform business operations in order to survive in the so-called “new normal.” Moreover, this requires investments in equipment and training. Additional costs and investments are also needed to meet health and safety standards and protocols. Thus, required assistance commonly cited by firms were loans, subsidies, and tax relief In the short term, the national government must restore consumer confidence and deploy its fiscal powers to stimulate aggregate demand. With assistance, business can invest in platforms and meeting health and safety protocols for workers and customers to return to work and patronize their business, whether on site or online. Resuscitating the economy is not solely the responsibility of government. It also requires solidarity and coordinated response from the private sector. Over the long term, both government and business must build more resilient organizations and strategies. This would include adopting digital transformation by both private and public sectors for a more nimble and agile economy. Business may also revisit the concept of “coopetition”. The interconnectedness of each industry calls for a more collaborative approach among businesses. When firms who have been negatively affected by the pandemic recover, this can also increase the rate at which the economy bounces back.
菲律宾管理协会(MAP)委托亚洲及太平洋大学经济学院(UA&P)进行一项研究,旨在了解新冠肺炎疫情对各行业的影响,并为政府和私营机构制定可能的政策措施,帮助受影响的行业应对疫情的负面影响,逐步恢复稳定的业务运营。我们对来自关键优先行业的33名预先选择的代表进行了在线调查,这些行业在2020年前两个季度出现了急剧收缩,占GDP的比重超过1%。为了验证调查结果,还通过zoom视频会议平台对10多家公司进行了利益相关者访谈。调查结果证实了疫情在企业层面的负面影响(即员工薪酬减少、员工人数减少、收入损失和其他流动性紧张、收款期延长、物流问题、项目推迟或取消、供应链中断和劳动力供应中断;等)。一些银行不得不关闭分支机构或完全停止运营。为了在所谓的“新常态”中生存,数字化运营的突然且可能是永久性的转变已经扰乱了运营,并施加了数字化转型业务运营的压力。此外,这需要对设备和培训进行投资。还需要额外的费用和投资来满足健康和安全标准和协议。因此,企业通常提到的所需援助是贷款、补贴和税收减免。在短期内,国家政府必须恢复消费者信心,并动用其财政权力来刺激总需求。有了帮助,企业可以投资于平台,并满足工人和客户重返工作岗位和光顾他们的业务的健康和安全协议,无论是在现场还是在网上。复苏经济不仅仅是政府的责任。它还需要私营部门的团结一致和协调一致的反应。从长远来看,政府和企业都必须建立更具弹性的组织和战略。这将包括私营和公共部门采用数字化转型,以实现更加灵活和敏捷的经济。商界也可能重新审视“合作”的概念。每个行业的相互联系要求企业之间采取更加协作的方式。当受到大流行负面影响的企业复苏时,这也可以提高经济反弹的速度。
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引用次数: 2
How influential are COVID–19 data points? A fresh look at an estimated small scale DSGE model for the Philippines 新冠肺炎-19数据点的影响力有多大?菲律宾小规模DSGE估算模型的新见解
Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.37907/2erp1202jd
Lawrence B. Dacuycuy
Shocks emanating from the global pandemic continue to reshape the macroeconomic landscape—dimming national growth prospects, prolonging widespread financial distress among households, firms, and governments and heightening uncertainty. Using a small-scale New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for the Philippines, we examine the model’s sensitivity to COVID-19 datapoints or extreme observations. Relative to estimates during the base period (2002Q1 to 2019Q4), the inclusion of extreme datapoints worsens the model’s log data density progressively, from the consideration of the first quarter of 2020 to the full sample – an indication that shock propagation mechanisms associated with COVID–19 and other natural disasters should be integrated into the model. Even with the inclusion of said extreme observations, however, the model’s parameters are identified, provided identification schemes are evaluated at posterior median estimates. Judging from the sets of parameter estimates relative to the base sample, the effects of extreme observations are found to be non–uniform, especially the size of the shocks. But there are other parameters, notably those that are embedded in the Taylor rule, which are relatively as stable as some household related parameters. These results imply that the size of standard errors for demand, supply, and monetary policy shocks adjust to partially capture the impact of extreme datapoints.
全球疫情引发的冲击继续重塑宏观经济格局,使国家增长前景黯淡,延长了家庭、企业和政府的普遍财务困境,并加剧了不确定性。使用菲律宾的小规模新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,我们检查了该模型对新冠肺炎数据点或极端观测的敏感性。相对于基准期(2002Q1至2019Q4)的估计,从2020年第一季度到全样本,极端数据点的加入逐渐恶化了模型的日志数据密度,这表明与2019冠状病毒病和其他自然灾害相关的冲击传播机制应纳入模型。然而,即使包含了所述极端观测值,只要在后验中值估计下评估识别方案,模型的参数也会被识别。从相对于基本样本的参数估计集来看,极端观测的影响是不均匀的,尤其是冲击的大小。但还有其他参数,尤其是泰勒规则中包含的参数,与一些家庭相关参数一样相对稳定。这些结果表明,需求、供应和货币政策冲击的标准误差大小进行了调整,以部分捕捉极端数据点的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring the telework potential of jobs: evidence from the International Standard Classification of Occupations 测量工作的远程办公潜力:来自国际职业标准分类的证据
Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.37907/5erp1202jd
Ian Nicole A. Generalao
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has triggered and accelerated the shift of firms and businesses to adopt flexible alternative work arrangements such as teleworking or working from home (WFH) set-ups. To effectively transition to the ‘new normal’ of work, this paper measures the telework potential of jobs or the degree to which a job can be feasibly done at home or offsite. Using the task-based framework, this paper constructs continuous ‘teleworkability’ indices by implementing a classification process of the occupational tasks listed in the International Standard Classification of Occupations 2008 (ISCO-08) and based on the telework indicators in the literature. The correlates of these indices are estimated. Also, the indices are applied to Philippine occupations. The primary contribution of this paper is the set of ‘teleworkability’ indices for all 427 occupations (4-digit ISCO) to describe the telework potential of jobs in countries which pattern their local occupational codes to ISCO-08.
冠状病毒疾病(新冠肺炎)大流行引发并加速了公司和企业采用灵活替代工作安排的转变,如远程工作或在家工作(WFH)。为了有效地过渡到工作的“新常态”,本文测量了工作的远程工作潜力,或在家或异地完成工作的可行性。使用基于任务的框架,本文通过对《2008年国际职业标准分类》(ISCO-08)中列出的职业任务进行分类,并基于文献中的远程工作指标,构建了连续的“远程工作性”指标。估计了这些指数的相关性。此外,这些指数也适用于菲律宾的职业。本文的主要贡献是为所有427种职业(4位数的ISCO)制定了一套“远程工作能力”指数,以描述按照ISCO-08制定当地职业代码的国家工作的远程工作潜力。
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引用次数: 4
Policy responses to shocks and monetary effectiveness under inflation targeting: The Philippine case 通胀目标制下对冲击的政策反应与货币有效性:菲律宾案例
Pub Date : 2021-07-23 DOI: 10.37907/7erp0202d
Margarita Debuque-Gonzales
This article examines how monetary policy responses to economic shocks and monetary policy effectiveness have changed in the Philippines since inflation targeting was implemented in 2002. The study makes use of a structural vector autoregression to estimate financial and monetary policy shocks, among other shocks, based on an identification strategy similar to Gilchrist and Zakrajsek [2012] and Bassetto et al. [2016]. A Philippine financial conditions index (FCI) purged of monetary influences then decomposed according to instrument or market is used to aid estimation and analysis. Results of the recursive vector autoregressions (VAR) comparing pre-inflation-targeting and inflation-targeting periods reveal stronger and more systematic policy responses to non-financial demand shocks, partial and transitory accommodation of supply shocks, and greater exchange rate flexibility initially under the new monetary policy regime. There is, however, an observed weakening of monetary policy responses to financial disturbances and monetary policy transmission to growth likely related to episodes of strong capital inflows.
本文考察了菲律宾自2002年实施通货膨胀目标制以来,货币政策对经济冲击的反应和货币政策有效性的变化。该研究基于与Gilchrist和Zakrajsek[2012]和Bassetto等人[2016]类似的识别策略,利用结构向量自回归来估计金融和货币政策冲击以及其他冲击。菲律宾金融状况指数(FCI)剔除货币影响,然后根据工具或市场进行分解,以帮助估计和分析。递归向量自回归(VAR)比较通货膨胀目标制前和通货膨胀目标制时期的结果显示,在新的货币政策制度下,对非金融需求冲击的政策反应更强、更系统,对供应冲击的部分和暂时调节,以及最初更大的汇率灵活性。然而,人们观察到货币政策对金融动荡的反应减弱,货币政策对增长的传导可能与强劲的资本流入有关。
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引用次数: 0
Fighting COVID-19: patterns in international data 抗击新冠肺炎:国际数据模式
Pub Date : 2021-07-23 DOI: 10.37907/10erp0202d
R. Mariano, Suleyman Ozmucur
This paper provides an empirical evaluation of countries’ performance in !ghting COVID-19, utilizing a performance index (which we call the Disaster Index) based on four health and economic indicators: deaths per population size, deaths per con!rmed cases, and quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP) and monthly unemployment rate relative to pre-pandemic values. International data patterns are studied for these four indicators and the Disaster Index to analyze trends and basic empirical relationships. The approach is descriptive and primarily based on graphs, scatter diagrams, and correlation analysis. The ten best performers based on the Disaster Index for the !rst half of 2020 were (ranked 1st to 10th): Singapore, Taiwan, Belarus, Korea, New Zealand, Japan, Norway, Israel, Czechia, and Lithuania. The worst twelve performers were (bad to worst): Sweden, US, Canada, Philippines, France, Columbia, Spain, Belgium, United Kingdom, Ecuador, Italy, and Peru. Thus, high-income Asian countries performed relatively better than low-income Asian countries, European, and American countries in the !rst half of 2020. Reasons for this geographical divide are very important and must be studied more carefully and closely, as successful methods in better performing countries will provide some lessons for other countries. It also would be interesting to see how this Disaster Index pro!le shifts in 2021 as vaccination and economic relief accelerate in countries like the United States. The pandemic exhibited the vulnerabilities in the world and reemphasized the vital signi!cance of international coordination and cooperation in a globalized world. Recent trends show that most countries still have a long way to go to control the virus. Vaccination is a reassuring fresh hope, a potential game-changer, though requiring careful, painstaking, and timely implementation
本文对各国在!抗击新冠肺炎,利用基于四个健康和经济指标的绩效指数(我们称之为灾难指数):每人口死亡人数、每囚犯死亡人数!rmed病例、季度实际国内生产总值(GDP)和相对于疫情前的月度失业率。研究了这四个指标和灾害指数的国际数据模式,以分析趋势和基本经验关系。该方法是描述性的,主要基于图表、散点图和相关性分析。基于灾难指数的十大最佳表现!2020年上半年(排名第1至第10位):新加坡、台湾、白俄罗斯、韩国、新西兰、日本、挪威、以色列、捷克和立陶宛。表现最差的12个国家是(从差到差):瑞典、美国、加拿大、菲律宾、法国、哥伦比亚、西班牙、比利时、英国、厄瓜多尔、意大利和秘鲁。因此,在!2020年上半年。造成这种地理差距的原因非常重要,必须更加仔细和密切地研究,因为在表现更好的国家取得成功的方法将为其他国家提供一些教训。这也将是有趣的,看看如何这个灾难指数专业!2021年,随着美国等国疫苗接种和经济救济的加速,情况发生了变化。这场疫情展示了世界的脆弱性,并再次强调了至关重要的意义!全球化世界中国际协调与合作的取消。最近的趋势表明,大多数国家要控制病毒还有很长的路要走。疫苗接种是一个令人放心的新希望,是一个潜在的游戏规则改变者,尽管需要谨慎、艰苦和及时的实施
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引用次数: 0
Economist, historian, and patriot: Benito J. Legarda 1926-2020 经济学家、历史学家和爱国者:Benito J.Legarda 1926-2020
Pub Date : 2021-07-23 DOI: 10.37907/3erp0202d
Jeffrey A. Williamson
One afternoon about twenty-five years ago, there was a knock on my Harvard office door, and Benito Legarda walked into my life. Ben had written his Harvard economics PhD thesis in the early-mid 1950s and then launched his career in central banking and financial policy. Meanwhile, his thesis on nineteenth-century Philippine trade and development was resting comfortably in the archives, where it was soon discovered by scholars and eventually became widely cited. Upon “retirement” some forty years later, Ben had the good fortune to meet up with Henry Rosovsky, a well-known quantitative economic historian who was famous for his Kuznets-like seminal work on Japan. By the 1990s and their meeting, Rosovsky had been chairman of Harvard’s economics department, dean of Harvard’s Faculty of Arts and Sciences, and had become the retired doyen of the Harvard community. Ben told me that Rosovsky had advised him about retirement life: “Now that you’re retired, Ben, why don’t you return to academic research? Indeed, why don’t you revise your thesis for publication? And if you decide to do so, you should go knock on Jeff Williamson’s door. I hear he has interests in the Philippines that stretch back to his participation in a Ford Foundation teaching program at the University of the Philippines School of Economics in the late 1960s.” Thus, the knock on my door some twenty-five years ago.
大约25年前的一个下午,有人敲我哈佛大学办公室的门,贝尼托·莱加尔达走进了我的生活。本在20世纪50年代初中期撰写了哈佛大学经济学博士论文,随后开始了中央银行和金融政策的职业生涯。与此同时,他关于19世纪菲律宾贸易与发展的论文被妥善保存在档案中,很快被学者们发现,并最终被广泛引用。大约四十年后“退休”后,本有幸见到了著名的量化经济历史学家亨利·罗索夫斯基,他以库兹涅茨式的日本开创性工作而闻名。到20世纪90年代和他们的会面时,罗索夫斯基已经是哈佛大学经济学系主任、哈佛大学文理学院院长,并成为哈佛社区的退休元老。本告诉我,罗索夫斯基曾就退休生活向他提出建议:“本,既然你已经退休了,你为什么不重返学术研究?事实上,你为什么不对论文进行修改以供发表?如果你决定这样做,你应该去敲杰夫·威廉姆森的门。我听说他对菲律宾有兴趣,这可以追溯到他在菲律宾大学经济学院参加福特基金会的一个教学项目e 20世纪60年代末。”因此,大约25年前敲门声。
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引用次数: 0
The nexus of nationalism and internationalism: the journey of a “diplomat” after the galleons 民族主义与国际主义的联系:一个“外交家”在大帆船之后的旅程
Pub Date : 2021-07-23 DOI: 10.37907/4erp0202d
Y. Takagi
After the galleons, Benito J. Legarda’s masterpiece on socioeconomic transformation after the galleon trade, has enriched our knowledge of the semi-open colonial economy in the 19th-century Philippine Islands, which witnessed the rise of nationalism at the end of that century. In this paper, I shed new light on the nature of the Ilustrados’ nationalism and their international activism by revisiting the life of the country’s “first diplomat”, Felipe Agoncillo, who battled in vain to achieve independence through a diplomatic channel. While class politics tends to be a focal point of the scholarly debate over the Ilustrados’ nationalism, this paper highlights the international dimensions of their advocacy. Agoncillo’s mission in the United States and Europe seems a reasonable option from our perspective, which has been shaped by the norm of modern diplomacy, but it was a risky adventure considering the overwhelming influence of imperialism. Why did Agoncillo conclude they had to send a mission? What kinds of negotiation strategies did they have? Combining Legarda’s global insights on the Philippines’ colonial economy with Agoncillo’s ideational and actual travel, this paper reveals how Philippine nationalism and internationalism created a nexus whose legacy exists in current Philippine diplomacy, one of whose achievements was the award of the arbitration case over the South China Sea in 2016.
大帆船之后,Benito J. Legarda关于大帆船贸易后社会经济转型的巨著丰富了我们对19世纪菲律宾群岛半开放的殖民地经济的认识,并见证了19世纪末民族主义的兴起。在本文中,我通过重新审视该国“第一位外交官”费利佩·阿贡西略(Felipe Agoncillo)的生活,对光明会的民族主义及其国际行动主义的本质进行了新的阐释。阿贡西略通过外交渠道争取独立,但徒劳无功。虽然阶级政治倾向于成为画派民族主义学术辩论的焦点,但本文强调了他们倡导的国际层面。从我们的角度来看,阿贡西略在美国和欧洲的使命似乎是一个合理的选择,这是由现代外交规范塑造的,但考虑到帝国主义的压倒性影响力,这是一次冒险的冒险。为什么阿贡西略认为他们必须派遣一个任务?他们有什么样的谈判策略?本文将莱加尔达对菲律宾殖民经济的全球洞察与阿贡西略的思想和实际旅行相结合,揭示了菲律宾民族主义与国际主义如何创造了一种联系,这种联系的遗产存在于当前的菲律宾外交中,其成就之一是2016年南海仲裁案的裁决。
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引用次数: 0
Then and now: analyzing Filipino youth education and work decisions following the 12 basic education reform 当时和现在:分析12项基础教育改革后的菲律宾青年教育和工作决策
Pub Date : 2021-07-22 DOI: 10.37907/7erp0202j
Marianne Joy Vital
This research aims to analyze the trends in youth education and work outcomes before and after the implementation of the kindergarten to grade 12 (K-12) Basic Education Reform, focusing on three broad outcomes: (1) in education, (2) in employment, or (3) not in employment, education or training (NEET). It determines certain characteristics associated with each of these outcomes by employing multinomial logistic regression analysis. The study finds that although the overall likelihood of being in education has increased after the reform, certain groups, particularly disadvantaged ones, still have higher probabilities of being in employment or NEET rather than continuing their education. Furthermore, after the reform, young men from disadvantaged groups have a higher probability of being NEET. Albeit minimal, this merits investigation and monitoring in the future, as it may worsen inequalities.
本研究旨在分析幼儿园至12年级(K-12)基础教育改革实施前后青年教育和工作成果的趋势,重点关注三个广泛的成果:(1)教育、(2)就业或(3)不就业、教育或培训(NEET)。它通过采用多项逻辑回归分析来确定与这些结果相关的某些特征。研究发现,尽管改革后接受教育的总体可能性有所增加,但某些群体,尤其是弱势群体,仍然有更高的就业或新能源教育的可能性,而不是继续接受教育。此外,改革后,来自弱势群体的年轻男性成为NEET的概率更高。尽管这种情况很小,但值得在未来进行调查和监测,因为它可能会加剧不平等。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
The Philippine review of economics
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