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Benito Legarda, Jr.: in his own words and an appreciation 小贝尼托·莱加尔达:用他自己的话和赞赏
Pub Date : 2021-07-22 DOI: 10.37907/1erp0202d
G. Sicat
This remembrance is written in two parts. In the first part, Dr. Benito Legarda Jr. writes mostly in his own words. We engaged in numerous exchanges by correspondence that he initiated as reactions to my weekly column on economic and social issues and other topics in the Philippine Star. In these exchanges, he parlayed his knowledge and perspectives as an economist, economic historian, and Filipino. Included in this section is the text of a short talk he delivered on the occasion of the launch of a book I wrote about another man of stature, former Prime Minister and Finance Minister Cesar E. A. Virata. Despite some references to me and my own work (for which I apologize to the reader), it is reproduced in full because in this talk, he reveals so much little-known biographical information about himself in his own words. The second part of this essay is my own appreciation of him. We were long-time professional contemporaries in our service in the government and post-retirement. We worked almost in the same milieu and contemporary environment, although in different capacities and institutions.
这篇纪念文章分为两部分。在第一部分中,小贝尼托·莱加尔达博士主要是用他自己的话写的。我们通过通信进行了多次交流,这是他对我在《菲律宾之星》上关于经济和社会问题以及其他话题的每周专栏的回应。在这些交流中,他充分发挥了自己作为经济学家、经济历史学家和菲律宾人的知识和观点。尽管有一些引用了我和我自己的作品(为此我向读者道歉),但全文转载是因为在这次演讲中,他用自己的话透露了很多鲜为人知的关于他自己的传记信息。这篇文章的第二部分是我自己对他的欣赏。我们在政府工作和退休后都是长期的同行。我们在几乎相同的环境和当代环境中工作,尽管在不同的能力和机构。
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引用次数: 0
Dr. Benito Legarda, Jr. as economic diplomat 贝尼托·莱加尔达博士担任经济外交官
Pub Date : 2021-07-22 DOI: 10.37907/2erp0202d
Cesar E. A. Virata
I first met Benito Legarda—Beneting as he was known by friends—as a member of the Junior Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines, the Jaycees. After graduating with a PhD from Harvard University, upon the encouragement of Leonides Virata who met him in Rome, he joined the Department of Economic Research (DER) of the Central Bank of the Philippines (CBP). He started as an economist but he was to climb the career ladder to end up Deputy Governor until his retirement. It was Leonides Virata, who was the first Central Bank head of the DER and who happened to be my uncle, who told me about him.
我第一次见到Benito Legarda是作为菲律宾初级商会Jaycees的一名成员。哈佛大学博士毕业后,在罗马见到他的Leonides Virata的鼓励下,他加入了菲律宾中央银行经济研究部。他最初是一名经济学家,但后来晋升为副州长,直到退休。告诉我他的是Leonides Virata,他是DER的第一位中央银行行长,碰巧是我的叔叔。
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引用次数: 0
Forecasting residential electricity demand in the Philippines using an error correction model 使用误差修正模型预测菲律宾居民用电需求
Pub Date : 2021-07-22 DOI: 10.37907/6erp0202j
Angelo Gabrielle F. Santos
This study uses an Error Correction Model (ECM) to forecast residential electricity demand in the Philippines using household final consumption expenditure, residential electricity price, and temperature as explanatory variables. Results show that there is a long-run relationship between household final consumption expenditure and residential electricity demand. Estimates from the ECM are consistent with economic theory, and the model passed standard diagnostic and parameter stability tests. Forecast performance based on within-sample and out-of-sample forecasts of the ECM is also shown to be superior, relative to a benchmark Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Simulations show that by 2040, residential electricity consumption will range from 42,500 gigawatthours (GWh) based on a weak income growth scenario and 62,000 GWh based on a combined changes scenario.
本研究使用误差修正模型(ECM)来预测菲律宾的居民用电需求,使用家庭最终消费支出、居民电价和温度作为解释变量。结果表明,居民最终消费支出与居民用电需求之间存在着长期的关系。ECM的估计与经济理论一致,模型通过了标准诊断和参数稳定性测试。相对于基准的自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型,基于样本内和样本外预测的ECM预测性能也显示出优越性。模拟显示,到2040年,住宅用电量将从基于弱收入增长情景的42,500千兆瓦时(GWh)和基于综合变化情景的62,000千兆瓦时不等。
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引用次数: 1
By his words alone: the economic consequences of Rodrigo Duterte 仅凭他的话:罗德里戈·杜特尔特的经济后果
Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.37907/4erp0202j
Elain Brianne Balderas, Alyanna Maria Belen Bernardo
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has gained worldwide notoriety for his foul-mouthed statements, particularly for his threats directed towards the nation’s largest businesses and their powerful owners. Such pronouncements, which may be mistaken for shifts in government policy, may inadvertently provoke the business sector to react negatively. This paper examines whether President Duterte's negative business-related pronouncements have an appreciable effect on the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi). We apply an interrupted time series model on PSEi data for the period June 30, 2016 until December 31, 2019 to determine Duterte’s impact on stock prices under six different intervention scenarios. Specifically, we test different classifications of business pronouncements— initial business pronouncements, anti-oligarch statements, personal attacks, and combinations of the three. The results show a significant relationship between Duterte’s negative business-related pronouncements on the PSEi closing price, with the biggest changes occurring during the first times he brought up a particular issue or addressed a certain personality. We aggregated the losses for the period 2018-2019 resulting from these pronouncements. For the five pronouncements, we estimate the combined losses to rise from ₱1 million on the day they were made to ₱47 million within five days and, as the market continues to adjust, up to ₱441 million within ten days.
菲律宾总统罗德里戈·杜特尔特因其脏话连篇的言论,特别是针对该国最大企业及其强大所有者的威胁,在全球范围内臭名昭著。这些声明可能被误认为是政府政策的转变,可能会无意中引发商业部门的负面反应。本文考察了杜特尔特总统与商业有关的负面言论是否对菲律宾证券交易所指数(PSEi)产生了明显影响。我们对2016年6月30日至2019年12月31日期间的PSEi数据应用中断时间序列模型,以确定杜特尔特在六种不同干预情景下对股价的影响。具体来说,我们测试了商业声明的不同分类——最初的商业声明、反寡头声明、人身攻击以及三者的组合。结果显示,杜特尔特对PSEi收盘价的负面商业相关声明之间存在显著关系,最大的变化发生在他第一次提出特定问题或谈到特定人物时。我们汇总了这些声明导致的2018-2019年期间的损失。对于这五项声明,我们估计总损失将在五天内从发布当天的100万英镑上升到4700万英镑,随着市场的持续调整,十天内将上升到4.41亿英镑。
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引用次数: 0
The conditional altruist and the Samaritan’s dilemma 条件利他主义者和撒玛利亚人的困境
Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.37907/5erp0202j
Joselito T. Sescon
The Samaritan’s dilemma refers to any situation in which an actual or expected altruistic behavior of one actor generates an incentive for exploitation on the recipient, such that the altruist suffers a welfare loss beyond the cost of the originally intended transfer. This study hypothesized that the Samaritan’s dilemma condition does (not) apply when the help given is a substitute for (complement to) the effort of the beneficiary to help herself. Using static and sequential game analyses, it is proven that either substitution or complementary condition could arise in the act of giving and receiving help. It is in the substitution condition only that the Samaritan dilemma arises. The players in a sequential game, with the first-mover advantage, can transform the game’s payoffs by setting assistance or work effort at the outset that forces the other player to adjust. Thus, Buchanan’s Samaritan’s dilemma is not a universally strategic outcome in the altruistic acts of giving. The empirical part tested if the Samaritan’s dilemma pervades or not in Philippine households by investigating the effects of expenditures of gifts on work hours. Household total transfers (consumption gifts plus remittances) and household members’ work effort are found substitutes. Thus, the Samaritan’s dilemma equilibrium is implied. However, there is also an implied equilibrium outside that of the Samaritan’s dilemma among high-effort workers: for these theoretically "altruist" workers, the gifts and income transfers are complementary to work hours.
撒马利亚人困境是指任何一种情况,在这种情况下,一个行为者的实际或预期的利他主义行为会激励接受者进行剥削,从而使利他主义者遭受的福利损失超过了最初计划转移的成本。这项研究假设,当所提供的帮助代替(补充)受益人帮助自己的努力时,撒马利亚人的困境条件不适用。通过静态和顺序博弈分析,证明了在给予和接受帮助的行为中可能出现替代或互补条件。只有在替代条件下,撒马利亚人的困境才会出现。在顺序游戏中,具有先发优势的玩家可以通过在一开始设置辅助或工作努力来改变游戏的收益,迫使其他玩家进行调整。因此,布坎南的撒马利亚人困境并不是无私奉献行为的普遍战略结果。实证部分通过调查礼物支出对工作时间的影响,检验了撒马利亚人的困境是否在菲律宾家庭中普遍存在。家庭总转移(消费礼品加汇款)和家庭成员的工作努力被发现是替代品。因此,撒马利亚人的困境平衡是隐含的。然而,在努力工作的工人中,除了撒马利亚人的困境之外,还有一个隐含的平衡:对于这些理论上“利他主义”的工人来说,礼物和收入转移与工作时间是互补的。
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引用次数: 0
A socio-economic history of a village in Central Luzon: Thirty-six years of household survey, 1977-2013 吕宋中部一个村庄的社会经济史:1977-2013年36年的住户调查
Pub Date : 2021-05-27 DOI: 10.37907/3erp1202j
F. Quimba, J. Estudillo
This study aims to give a detailed account of how household sources of livelihood, income, and poverty change under the pressure of four modernizing forces: (1) population pressure on closed land frontier; (2) implementation of land reform; (3) expansion of public infrastructures such as irrigation systems, roads, and schools; and (4) growing urban influences accelerated by improvements in transportation and telecommunication systems. This study was conducted in a village in Central Luzon where recurrent household surveys were done for 36 years from 1977 to 2013 encompassing the period of dramatic diffusion of modern rice technology. The major finding is that the interaction between the four modernizing forces and the diffusion of modern rice technology resulted in major economic and social changes that led to a rise in household income and prevented poverty from increasing. This study provides evidence contrary to the popular belief that the spread of modern agricultural technology and the encroachment of market activities into rural villages are harmful to the economic welfare of the rural Filipino people.
本研究旨在详细说明在四种现代化力量的压力下,家庭的生活来源、收入和贫困是如何变化的:(1)封闭陆地边界上的人口压力;(2) 实施土地改革;(3) 扩大灌溉系统、道路和学校等公共基础设施;以及(4)交通和电信系统的改善加速了城市影响力的增长。这项研究是在吕宋中部的一个村庄进行的,从1977年到2013年,在现代水稻技术急剧普及的时期,该村庄进行了36年的反复家庭调查。主要发现是,四股现代化力量与现代水稻技术的传播之间的相互作用导致了重大的经济和社会变化,导致家庭收入增加,并防止了贫困加剧。这项研究提供了与流行的观点相反的证据,即现代农业技术的传播和市场活动对农村的侵占损害了菲律宾农村人民的经济福利。
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引用次数: 0
The COVID-19 Pandemic, Remittances and Financial Inclusion in the Philippines 新冠肺炎疫情、菲律宾汇款和金融普惠
Pub Date : 2021-05-27 DOI: 10.37907/2ERP0202J
Eiji Yamada, Satoshi Shimizutani, Enerelt Murakami
Recent literature has revealed that financial inclusion enhances economic opportunities and security in developing countries. Moreover, a greater inflow of remittances can promote inclusiveness. In this paper, we explore the potential impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak on financial inclusion by focusing on its detrimental effect on remittance flows to developing countries. Using a household-level dataset collected in rural regions of the Philippines prior to the outbreak, we confirm that remittances are associated with financial inclusion, particularly for women. We discuss the potential impacts of the pandemic on financial inclusion through the change in the flow of remittances. We show that a substantial decline in remittances caused by the COVID-19 crisis may have an adverse effect on financial inclusion in the Philippines.
最近的文献表明,金融包容性提高了发展中国家的经济机会和安全。此外,更多的汇款流入可以促进包容性。在本文中,我们探讨了COVID-19疫情对普惠金融的潜在影响,重点关注其对发展中国家汇款流动的不利影响。利用疫情爆发前在菲律宾农村地区收集的家庭数据集,我们确认汇款与普惠金融有关,特别是对妇女而言。我们通过汇款流量的变化讨论了疫情对普惠金融的潜在影响。我们的研究表明,2019冠状病毒病危机导致的汇款大幅下降可能对菲律宾的普惠金融产生不利影响。
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引用次数: 1
Forces of modernization and the welfare of rural households: a saga of a village in Central Luzon, 1977-2013 现代化的力量和农村家庭的福利:吕宋岛中部一个村庄的传奇,1977-2013
Pub Date : 2021-05-27 DOI: 10.37907/3ERP0202J
F. Quimba, J. Estudillo
This study aims to give a detailed account of how household sources of livelihood, income, and poverty change under the pressure of four modernizing forces: (1) population pressure on closed land frontier; (2) implementation of land reform; (3) expansion of public infrastructures such as irrigation systems, roads, and schools; and (4) growing urban influences accelerated by improvements in transportation and telecommunication systems. This study was conducted in a village in Central Luzon where recurrent household surveys were done for 36 years from 1977 to 2013 encompassing the period of dramatic diffusion of modern rice technology. The major finding is that the interaction between the four modernizing forces and the diffusion of modern rice technology resulted in major economic and social changes that led to a rise in household income and prevented poverty from increasing. This study provides evidence contrary to the popular belief that the spread of modern agricultural technology and the encroachment of market activities into rural villages are harmful to the economic welfare of the rural Filipino people.
本研究旨在详细说明在四种现代化力量的压力下,家庭的生活来源、收入和贫困是如何变化的:(1)封闭陆地边界上的人口压力;(2) 实施土地改革;(3) 扩大灌溉系统、道路和学校等公共基础设施;以及(4)交通和电信系统的改善加速了城市影响力的增长。这项研究是在吕宋中部的一个村庄进行的,从1977年到2013年,在现代水稻技术急剧普及的时期,该村庄进行了36年的反复家庭调查。主要发现是,四股现代化力量与现代水稻技术的传播之间的相互作用导致了重大的经济和社会变化,导致家庭收入增加,并防止了贫困加剧。这项研究提供了与流行的观点相反的证据,即现代农业技术的传播和市场活动对农村的侵占损害了菲律宾农村人民的经济福利。
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引用次数: 0
Clubs, Coase, and the Role of Government 俱乐部、科斯与政府角色
Pub Date : 2021-05-26 DOI: 10.37907/1ERP0202J
J. Roumasset
As Ronald Coase and others have shown, deducing the appropriate role of the government in the economy requires a comparative institutions approach. Trying to generalize from oversimplified specifications regarding transaction costs, according to whether exclusion is possible or not, is a futile exercise. An alternative to the Ostrom matrix is to distinguish private, club, and collective consumption goods according to their technical characteristics, specifically their degree of congestabiilty. The other box of the Ostrom matrix, “common pool” resources, can also be usefully analyzed from a club perspective. Spillover goods are spatial clubs. Lastly, a version of the Coase theorem is offered, which provides the foundation of comparative institutional analysis.
正如罗纳德•科斯(Ronald Coase)等人所表明的,推断政府在经济中的适当角色需要一种比较制度的方法。根据是否可能排除交易成本,试图从过于简化的交易成本规范中进行归纳,是徒劳的。奥斯特罗姆矩阵的另一种选择是根据其技术特征,特别是其拥挤程度来区分私人、俱乐部和集体消费品。奥斯特罗姆矩阵的另一个方框,即“公共池”资源,也可以从俱乐部的角度进行有用的分析。溢出商品是空间俱乐部。最后,提出了科斯定理的一个版本,为比较制度分析提供了基础。
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引用次数: 0
The Bullinger Pool in Burma, 1921 to the mid-1930s 1921年至20世纪30年代中期,缅甸的布林格池
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.37907/5erp0202d
M. S. Diokno
One of the most important developments in the history of the rice trade of colonial Burma was the creation of the Bullinger Pool in 1921, a combination of four large British milling and export firms based on a common price policy for the purchase and sale of paddy and rice. These firms dominated the rice trade at a time when paddy was the “true currency” of the country [Binns 1948:50]: as the source of livelihood for the majority and the form of payment for rent, loans, and wages. The collective position of the four companies—Steel Bros. and Co., Ltd., Bulloch Bros. and Co., Ltd., Ellerman’s Arracan Rice and Trading Co., Ltd., and Anglo-Burma Rice Co., Ltd.—reached such magnitude in the rice trade that by the 1930s, the conglomerate had become the subject of a legislative inquiry and the object of organized Burmese protest. The accusation against the Pool was that it manipulated prices in order to rake in huge profits, especially at the time of economic depression in the early 1930s. Even if the allegations of what one today might consider unfair trade practice were officially dismissed, as they were, the paper demonstrates that the Pool’s primary advantage, especially its access to paddy supplies, was the cornerstone of its position in the rice trade, making any measure of control plausible at the least. Since the relationship between paddy and rice prices was crucial to the industry’s pricing mechanism, the existence of a combination to set prices for both paddy and rice in the local market made the industry vulnerable to manipulation.
缅甸殖民地稻米贸易历史上最重要的发展之一是1921年建立的布林格交易中心(Bullinger Pool),它由四家大型英国碾磨和出口公司组成,采用共同的价格政策购买和销售稻谷和大米。当稻谷是这个国家“真正的货币”时,这些公司主导了稻米贸易:稻谷是大多数人的生计来源,也是支付租金、贷款和工资的形式。钢铁兄弟有限公司、布洛克兄弟有限公司、埃勒曼的阿拉坎大米贸易有限公司和英缅大米有限公司这四家公司的集体地位在大米贸易中达到了如此巨大的地位,以至于到20世纪30年代,这家企业集团已经成为立法机构调查的对象和缅甸有组织抗议的对象。对该协会的指控是,它操纵价格以获取巨额利润,尤其是在20世纪30年代初的经济萧条时期。即使这些在今天看来可能被视为不公平贸易行为的指控被官方驳回,但这篇论文表明,欧盟的主要优势,尤其是其获得稻米供应的渠道,是其在稻米贸易中地位的基石,这至少使任何控制措施都是合理的。由于水稻和大米价格之间的关系对该行业的定价机制至关重要,因此在当地市场上为水稻和大米设定价格的组合使得该行业容易受到操纵。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
The Philippine review of economics
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