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Introduction to the symposium on the care economy 护理经济研讨会介绍
Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI: 10.37907/2erp3202j
M. Floro, Elizabeth King
The articles in this Symposium on the Care Economy contend that a better understanding of the care work that households provide would deepen our understanding of how economies operate and why public policies may or may not have their desired impact.
本次护理经济研讨会的文章认为,更好地理解家庭提供的护理工作将加深我们对经济如何运作以及为什么公共政策可能会或可能不会产生预期影响的理解。
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引用次数: 0
The enduring impact of the pandemic on gender patterns of paid and unpaid work: evidence from time-use data in Turkey 大流行病对有偿和无偿工作性别格局的持久影响:来自土耳其时间使用数据的证据
Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI: 10.37907/5erp3202j
Ipek Ilkkaracan, Emel Memiş
This paper examines changes in the gender patterns of paid and unpaid work in Turkey from the pre-pandemic period to the early pandemic phase under lockdown conditions and the late pandemic phase under relative normalization. We analyze data from three surveys fielded during these periods. We first adjust for demographic shifts during the pandemic to isolate the changes in paid and unpaid work. We then examine the impact of new work arrangements during the pandemic. Pooled regression analysis shows that paid work time has largely returned to pre-pandemic levels under partial normalization. Unpaid work time has decreased relative to the lockdown period, but it remains higher than pre-pandemic, particularly for women but also for men. The more enduring effects of the pandemic pertain to paid work, attitudes toward teleworking, and the provisioning of social care services. The share of teleworking has increased for women and men.
本文考察了土耳其从大流行前时期到封锁条件下的大流行早期阶段和相对正常化下的大流行后期阶段的有偿和无偿工作性别格局的变化。我们分析了在这些时期进行的三项调查的数据。我们首先根据大流行期间的人口变化进行调整,以隔离有偿和无偿工作的变化。然后,我们审查大流行期间新的工作安排的影响。综合回归分析显示,在部分正常化的情况下,带薪工作时间已基本恢复到大流行前的水平。与封锁期间相比,无薪工作时间有所减少,但仍高于大流行前,尤其是女性,但男性也是如此。疫情更持久的影响涉及有偿工作、对远程工作的态度以及社会护理服务的提供。女性和男性远程办公的比例都有所增加。
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引用次数: 0
Unpaid eldercare and its impact on the US labor supply 无偿养老及其对美国劳动力供应的影响
Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI: 10.37907/6erp3202j
Tanima Ahmed, M. Floro
Globally, the dependency ratio is rising due to increase in aging population. Individuals, especially women are challenged when choosing between participating in the labor market and providing care. Using 2011-2017 American Time Use Survey data for a subsample of individuals aged 25- 61 years, we examine the effect of frequent eldercare provision on labor force participation in the US using bivariate probit instrumental variable approach. Our findings suggest that unpaid eldercare performed frequently reduces labor force participation. Female frequent providers are likely to have lower labor force participation compared to their male counterparts. Robustness and sensitivity checks confirm these findings.
在全球范围内,由于人口老龄化的增加,抚养比率正在上升。个人,尤其是女性,在参与劳动力市场和提供护理之间做出选择时面临挑战。使用2011-2017年美国时间使用调查数据,以25-61岁的个人为子样本,我们使用双变量probit工具变量方法检验了频繁提供老年护理对美国劳动力参与的影响。我们的研究结果表明,经常进行无偿老年护理会减少劳动力的参与。与男性相比,女性经常提供服务的人的劳动力参与率可能较低。稳健性和敏感性检查证实了这些发现。
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引用次数: 0
Women’s market work and childcare policies in Colombia: policy simulations using a computable general equilibrium model 哥伦比亚的妇女市场工作和儿童保育政策:使用可计算一般均衡模型的政策模拟
Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI: 10.37907/4erp3202j
M. Cicowiez, H. Lofgren, Ana Tribin, Tatiana Mojica
In recent decades, Colombia has made significant progress towards achieving gender equality in its labor market. However, persistent inequalities in unpaid care work remain a significant challenge, resulting in heavy care workload for women. This study evaluates the impact of three government policy options that can help reduce women's unpaid work: subsidy for childcare services provided by the market, an increase in public provision of childcare services, and cash transfers to households with children using a care-extended computable general equilibrium model (CGE) calibrated to Colombian data. The results show that while all policies improve family economic situations by increasing private consumption, childcare provision, whether through subsidies or as a public good, has a more significant impact on increasing female market work while cash transfers increase unpaid work performed inside the home. These findings underscore the importance of policy design and their analysis regarding their impact on gender inequalities, labor supply, and economic growth.
近几十年来,哥伦比亚在实现劳动力市场性别平等方面取得了重大进展。然而,无偿护理工作中持续存在的不平等仍然是一个重大挑战,导致妇女的护理工作量繁重。本研究评估了有助于减少妇女无偿工作的三种政府政策选择的影响:市场提供的托儿服务补贴,增加公共托儿服务的提供,以及使用根据哥伦比亚数据校准的护理扩展可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)向有孩子的家庭提供现金转移。结果表明,虽然所有政策都通过增加私人消费来改善家庭经济状况,但提供托儿服务(无论是通过补贴还是作为公共产品)对增加女性市场工作的影响更为显著,而现金转移支付增加了家庭内部的无偿工作。这些发现强调了政策设计及其对性别不平等、劳动力供给和经济增长影响的分析的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Nowcasting domestic liquidity in the Philippines using machine learning algorithms 使用机器学习算法预测菲律宾国内流动性
Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.37907/1erp2202d
Juan Rufino Reyes
This study utilizes a number of algorithms used in machine learning to nowcast domestic liquidity growth in the Philippines. It employs regularization (i.e., Ridge Regression, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), Elastic Net (ENET)) and tree-based (i.e., Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Trees) methods in order to support the BSP’s current suite of macroeconomic models used to forecast and analyze liquidity. Hence, this study evaluates the accuracy of time series models (e.g., Autoregressive, Dynamic Factor), regularization, and tree-based methods through an expanding window. The results indicate that Ridge Regression, LASSO, ENET, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosted Trees provide better estimates than the traditional time series models, with month-ahead nowcasts yielding lower Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Furthermore, regularization and tree-based methods facilitate the identification of macroeconomic indicators that are significant to specify parsimonious nowcasting models.
这项研究利用机器学习中使用的许多算法来预测菲律宾国内流动性的增长。它采用正则化(即岭回归、最小绝对收缩和选择算子(LASSO)、弹性网(ENET))和基于树的(即随机森林、梯度增强树)方法,以支持BSP当前用于预测和分析流动性的一套宏观经济模型。因此,本研究通过扩展窗口评估时间序列模型(如自回归、动态因子)、正则化和基于树的方法的准确性。结果表明,岭回归、LASSO、ENET、随机森林和梯度增强树比传统的时间序列模型提供了更好的估计,月前的nowcast产生了更低的均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对误差(MAE)。此外,正则化和基于树的方法有助于确定宏观经济指标,这些指标对于指定简约的预测模型非常重要。
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引用次数: 0
Insights on inflation expectations in the Philippines from a household survey 菲律宾一项家庭调查对通胀预期的洞察
Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.37907/3erp2202d
Faith Christian Q. Cacnio, Joselito R. Basilio
The study contributes to the literature on expectations by providing insights on household expectations from an emerging market and inflation targeting country like the Philippines. Using the results of the Consumer Expectations Survey (CES), a quarterly household survey conducted by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), the study is the first to look at the characteristics and determinants of household inflation expectations in the Philippines at a granular level. Results show that survey-based household expectations in the country are not rational. Filipino households exhibit an upward bias in their forecast of future inflation and they tend to rely more on information about past inflation to form their expectations. Nonetheless, in recent years, households have started to incorporate information about future outcomes in their inflation expectations process. To determine the factors that drive household expectations in the Philippines, aggregated (i.e., time series) and disaggregated (i.e., pooled data) data from CES quarterly survey rounds between 2010 and 2020 are used on a standard inflation expectations model. Empirical results point to a significant effect of income conditions, perceptions on economic and financial conditions, the inflation target, and demographic factors (e.g., educational attainment, marital status) on the formation of household expectations in the Philippines. Based on the findings and observations, the study draws insights for central bank communication strategy, particularly in influencing household expectations.
该研究通过深入了解菲律宾等新兴市场和通胀目标制国家的家庭预期,为有关预期的文献做出了贡献。使用消费者预期调查(CES)的结果,这是一项由Bangko central ng Pilipinas (BSP)进行的季度家庭调查,该研究首次在颗粒水平上研究菲律宾家庭通胀预期的特征和决定因素。结果表明,基于调查的家庭期望在该国是不理性的。菲律宾家庭在预测未来通货膨胀时表现出向上的倾向,他们倾向于更多地依赖于过去的通货膨胀信息来形成他们的预期。尽管如此,近年来,美国家庭已开始在通胀预期过程中纳入有关未来结果的信息。为了确定驱动菲律宾家庭预期的因素,2010年至2020年期间CES季度调查的汇总(即时间序列)和分解(即汇集数据)数据用于标准通胀预期模型。实证结果表明,收入状况、对经济和金融状况的看法、通货膨胀目标和人口因素(如受教育程度、婚姻状况)对菲律宾家庭期望的形成有显著影响。根据调查结果和观察结果,本研究为央行的沟通策略,特别是在影响家庭预期方面提出了见解。
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引用次数: 0
The long and the short of it: revisiting the effects of microfinance-oriented banks on household welfare in the Philippines 长话短说:重新审视小额信贷银行对菲律宾家庭福利的影响
Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.37907/6erp2202d
Cherry Wyle G. Layaoen, Kazushi Takahashi
Although evidence on the impact of microfinance is continuously accumulating, little is known about how long-term presence of microfinance institutions affects household welfare. This study addresses the issue by evaluating a household-level panel data and a unique event in the Philippines when the microfinance industry was mainstreamed and commercialized in the banking sector with microfinance-oriented banks (MOBs), which began to open in 2004. We find that the positive effects of longer MOB presence on entrepreneurial income and activities diminish or even regress over time. Moreover, no significant impacts are noted on real expenditures. Heterogeneity analysis further reveals that no immediate or incremental effects were observed on real expenditures of poor families and the immediate positive effect on entrepreneurial income and activities did not accrue in the long run. Lastly, no significant long-term impacts are noted on real expenditures as well as likelihood of and income from entrepreneurial and wage and salary activities of non-poor families from MOB presence. We, however, argue that MOB presence may reduce vulnerability as it affords households to be entrepreneurs.
尽管关于小额信贷影响的证据不断积累,但人们对小额信贷机构的长期存在如何影响家庭福利知之甚少。本研究通过评估家庭层面的面板数据和菲律宾的一个独特事件来解决这个问题,当时小额信贷行业在银行部门被主流化并商业化,小额信贷导向银行(MOBs)于2004年开始开放。我们发现,随着时间的推移,MOB对企业家收入和活动的积极影响会减弱甚至倒退。此外,没有注意到对实际支出的重大影响。异质性分析进一步表明,对贫困家庭的实际支出没有观察到直接或增量的影响,对企业收入和活动的直接积极影响在长期内不会累积。最后,没有注意到MOB存在对非贫困家庭的实际支出以及创业和工资和薪金活动的可能性和收入的重大长期影响。然而,我们认为,MOB的存在可能会减少脆弱性,因为它使家庭成为企业家。
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引用次数: 0
Does bank competition affect bank risk-taking differently? 银行竞争对银行风险承担的影响是否不同?
Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.37907/2erp2202d
V. Bayangos
This paper examines the presence of two competing views—“competition-fragility” and “competition-stability”—in analyzing the impact of competition on bank stability. The approach is to first construct measures of bank competition from a unique dataset of balance sheet and income statements for 542 banks operating in the Philippines from March 2010 to December 2020. The paper then estimates the impact of these competition measures on solvency risk or the risk of being unable to absorb losses with the available capital across universal/commercial banks (U/KBs), thrift banks (TBs) and rural/cooperative banks (R/CBs) industries. Using panel quantile regression, the results reveal that, at the industry level, bank competition reduces solvency risk and that it enhances bank stability. Looking at the risk distribution, the study shows the presence of the competition-fragility and competition-stability hypotheses holding simultaneously for U/KBs suggesting that the effect of competition depends crucially on the underlying individual bank risk. Importantly, the results highlight that the relationship between competition and bank risk is sensitive to other bank-specific characteristics and macro-financial factors related to extent of diversification strategy, cost-to-income ratio, deposit growth, capitalization, changes in the physical banking networks, and growth of real Gross Domestic Product.
在分析竞争对银行稳定性的影响时,本文考察了“竞争脆弱性”和“竞争稳定性”两种竞争观点的存在。该方法是首先从2010年3月至2020年12月在菲律宾运营的542家银行的资产负债表和损益表的独特数据集中构建银行竞争指标。然后,本文估计了这些竞争措施对偿付能力风险的影响,或无法用通用/商业银行(U/KBs)、储蓄银行(TB)和农村/合作银行(R/CB)行业的可用资本吸收损失的风险。使用面板分位数回归,结果表明,在行业层面,银行竞争降低了偿付能力风险,增强了银行的稳定性。从风险分布来看,该研究表明,竞争脆弱性和竞争稳定性假设同时适用于U/KBs,这表明竞争的影响主要取决于潜在的单个银行风险。重要的是,研究结果强调,竞争和银行风险之间的关系对其他银行特定特征和宏观金融因素很敏感,这些因素与多元化战略的程度、成本收入比、存款增长、资本化、实体银行网络的变化和实际国内生产总值的增长有关。
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引用次数: 0
How do exchange rates affect the Big One? An empirical analysis of the effect of exchange rates on RCEP exports using the gravity model 汇率如何影响大经济?汇率对RCEP出口影响的引力模型实证分析
Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.37907/5erp2202d
Jose Adlai Tancangco
The often disparate and conflicting effects of exchange rate on bilateral exports reported by previous literature necessitate a further study of the relationship between monetary and trade variables. This study contributes to the stream of literature by analyzing monetary variables such as exchange rate volatility, exchange rate misalignment, exchange rate regimes, and real effective exchange rates with bilateral aggregate exports through a sample of 15 nations comprising the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) region for the years 1996 to 2017 using Ordinary Least Squares and Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood panel fixed effects regression. Results indicate that a country’s real effective exchange rate ratio and the exchange rate volatility for countries under a floating exchange rate regime reduce aggregate exports.
先前文献报道的汇率对双边出口的影响往往是不同和冲突的,因此有必要进一步研究货币和贸易变量之间的关系。这项研究通过分析货币变量,如汇率波动、汇率错位、汇率制度,为文献流做出了贡献,以及1996年至2017年区域全面经济伙伴关系(RCEP)区域15个国家样本的双边总出口的实际有效汇率,使用普通最小二乘法和泊松伪最大似然面板固定效应回归。结果表明,一个国家的实际有效汇率比率和浮动汇率制度下国家的汇率波动性降低了总出口。
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引用次数: 0
Heterogenous impact of monetary policy on the Philippine rural banking system 货币政策对菲律宾农村银行体系的异质影响
Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.37907/4erp2202d
Eloisa T. Glindro, J. C. Armas, V. Tolentino, Lorna Dela Cruz-Sombe
This paper shows the differential impact of monetary policy on the lending behavior of rural banks, with the bank lending channel being operational in small rural banks. While big rural banks are able to protect their lending portfolio from contractionary monetary policy by the size of their balance sheet, small rural banks with less diversified funding portfolio cannot. Moreover, highly capitalized rural banks are more inclined to protect their capital than expand their lending portfolio, following monetary tightening and higher capital requirement. The insignificance of gross domestic product (GDP) growth may reflect weakness in effective loan demand and lack of diversification that could have also impinged on the earning capacity of rural banks, as supported by initial estimates on the drivers of rural bank profitability. The finding on heterogeneous effects of monetary policy on rural banks has a secondary implication of lending credence to the principle of proportionality embodied in the BSP’s bank regulatory framework.
本文展示了货币政策对农村银行贷款行为的差异性影响,银行贷款渠道在小型农村银行中运作。虽然大型农村银行能够通过其资产负债表的规模来保护其贷款组合免受紧缩性货币政策的影响,但融资组合不太多样化的小型农村银行却不能。此外,随着货币紧缩和资本要求的提高,资本化程度较高的农村银行更倾向于保护其资本,而不是扩大其贷款组合。国内生产总值(GDP)增长的微不足道可能反映了有效贷款需求的疲软和缺乏多样化,这也可能影响农村银行的盈利能力,正如对农村银行盈利驱动因素的初步估计所支持的那样。货币政策对农村银行的异质性影响的研究结果对BSP银行监管框架中体现的比例原则具有次要的贷款可信度。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
The Philippine review of economics
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