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Global liquidity, global risk appetite, and the risk of credit and asset booms 全球流动性、全球风险偏好,以及信贷和资产繁荣的风险
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.37907/8erp0202d
M. Gochoco‐Bautista
This study examines the channels through which net cross-border bank flows and VIX, working through the domestic banking system, could potentially lead to the creation or exacerbation of credit and asset booms that may threaten financial stability. It uses bank firm-level data for the Philippines over the period 1991-2018. Among the study’s significant findings are the following: bank lending to the real estate and housing sector is consistently and significantly affected by net cross-border bank flows (NCBF); non-core bank liabilities is an important variable as it consistently affects the amount of total loans and loans to the commercial and industrial sector as well as bank asset growth and bank leverage; net cross-border flows lower bank asset growth; and banks’ cost of loans tends to be reduced by NCBF and by a reduction in global risk appetite. The use of macroprudential measures-including monitoring bank non-core liabilities and lending to sectors such as real estate-as well as capital flow management measures is warranted in order to prevent bank credit and asset booms from being created or exacerbated, which may threaten growth and financial stability.
本研究考察了净跨境银行流动和波动率指数通过国内银行体系可能导致信贷和资产繁荣的产生或加剧的渠道,从而可能威胁到金融稳定。它使用了1991年至2018年期间菲律宾银行公司层面的数据。该研究的重要发现如下:银行对房地产和住房部门的贷款持续且显著地受到净跨境银行流量(NCBF)的影响;非核心银行负债是一个重要的变量,因为它持续影响贷款总额、商业和工业部门贷款以及银行资产增长和银行杠杆;净跨境流动降低了银行资产增长;银行的贷款成本往往会因NCBF和全球风险偏好的降低而降低。为了防止可能威胁经济增长和金融稳定的银行信贷和资产繁荣的产生或加剧,有必要采取宏观审慎措施——包括监控银行非核心负债和向房地产等部门提供贷款——以及资本流动管理措施。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal saving and sustainable foreign debt 最优储蓄和可持续外债
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.37907/9erp0202d
D. Villanueva, R. Mariano
This paper develops and discusses an open-economy growth model in a modi!ed Arrow learning-by-doing framework, in which workers learn through experience on the job, thereby increasing their productivity. Applying optimal control to maximize the discounted stream of intertemporal consumption, the model yields domestic saving rates of 18-22 percent of GDP, which are feasible targets in developing and emerging market economies. Sustainable gross foreign debt is in the range of 39-50 percent of GDP. Saving, debt, and growth policies are suggested.
本文发展并讨论了一个开放经济增长模型。埃德·阿罗边做边学的框架,在这个框架中,工人通过工作经验来学习,从而提高他们的生产率。通过最优控制使跨期消费贴现流最大化,该模型得出国内储蓄率为GDP的18- 22%,这是发展中国家和新兴市场经济体可行的目标。可持续的外债总额占GDP的比例在39%到50%之间。他们提出了储蓄、债务和增长政策。
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引用次数: 2
The BSP’s journey towards a progressive monetary policy framework 英国央行迈向渐进式货币政策框架的旅程
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.37907/6erp0202d
Eloisa T. Glindro, Marites Oliva
This paper examines the evolution of monetary policy framework in the country. It starts the journey with the establishment of the central bank after the Second World War, when there was still no active monetary policy as the country operated on a fixed exchange rate system and supply-led credit programs. The paper describes the challenges with the implementation of monetary policy reforms in the 1980s, particularly the shift to a “managed float” exchange rate system and the adoption of monetary aggregate targeting framework in the context of deregulation and liberalization. It further discusses the development of monetary policy framework and operations, following the creation of an independent Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) in 1993, with the primary mandate of maintaining price stability. It provides a narrative on how the monetary aggregate targeting framework was modified to its eventual shift to an inflation targeting (IT) framework. It highlights the relative success of IT and discusses the innovative approaches undertaken by the BSP to further enhance liquidity management. Moving forward, the BSP’s monetary policy framework and operations will likely continue evolving and serving as steady anchors of macroeconomic stabilization. This will be guided by foresight, commitment to action and helpful lessons from the past, in the context of increased uncertainty.
本文考察了我国货币政策框架的演变。它始于第二次世界大战后中央银行的建立,当时仍然没有积极的货币政策,因为国家实行固定汇率制度和供应主导的信贷计划。本文描述了20世纪80年代实施货币政策改革所面临的挑战,特别是向“有管理的浮动”汇率制度的转变,以及在放松管制和自由化的背景下采用货币总量目标框架。它进一步讨论了1993年独立的菲律宾中央银行(BSP)成立后货币政策框架和操作的发展,其主要任务是维持价格稳定。它讲述了货币总量目标制框架是如何被修改为最终转向通胀目标制框架的。报告强调了资讯科技的相对成功,并讨论了BSP为进一步加强流动资金管理而采取的创新方法。展望未来,BSP的货币政策框架和操作可能会继续演变,并作为宏观经济稳定的稳定锚。在不确定性增加的情况下,这将以远见、对行动的承诺和从过去吸取有益的教训为指导。
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引用次数: 0
A note on cooperative hunting (Holmstrom and Fabella meet the Dumagat of Tanay) 关于合作狩猎的笔记(霍尔姆斯特罗姆和法贝拉遇到了塔内的杜马加特)
Pub Date : 2020-07-22 DOI: 10.37907/5erp9102jd
O. Solon
This paper examines social institutions and norms related to cooperative big game hunting by introducing these explicitly into the basic economic model used to analyze moral hazard in teams [Holmstrom 1982]. Features built into Holmstrom’s basic model include effort to locate and acquire game, trophy taking and carcass sharing among members of a hunting party. The insights offered here are inspired by the norms of the Dumagat of Tanay in hunting, meat sharing and trophy taking. Among the Dumagat, the individual who acquires the game takes the head and the feet as trophy. The rest of the carcass is divided up along the lines described by Fabella’s [1988] natural team sharing formula.  JEL classification: J23, J24
本文通过将与大型狩猎合作相关的社会制度和规范明确引入用于分析团队道德风险的基本经济模型[Holmstrom 1982],来检验这些制度和规范。Holmstrom的基本模型中包含的功能包括寻找和获取猎物、战利品和狩猎队成员之间的尸体共享。这里提供的见解受到了塔奈大仲马狩猎、分享肉类和战利品的规范的启发。在杜马加特中,获得比赛的个人将头部和脚部作为奖杯。尸体的其余部分按照Fabella[1988]的自然团队共享公式所描述的路线进行分割。JEL分类:J23、J24
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引用次数: 1
Digit ratio and prosocial behavior: the role of innate aggression in public goods and trust games 数字比例与亲社会行为:天生攻击在公共产品和信任游戏中的作用
Pub Date : 2020-07-22 DOI: 10.37907/4erp9102jd
Jahm Mae Guinto, Charlotte May Amante, F. Carlos, Arlene Daro, Mariella Jasmin Marasigan, J. Capuno
Following previous studies that found individuals with shorter index fingers relative to ring fingers (low digit ratio) exhibit aggressive behavior in adulthood, in this study we use the left digit ratio, a putative marker for in-utero testosterone exposure [Manning et al. 1998], as an indicator of predisposition towards aggression to investigate its relation to prosocial behavior in the context of economic games. First, we ask if aggressive individuals and not-aggressive ones inherently differ in their prosocial behavior, independent of the features of the game. Second, we ask if the differences in their initial or subsequent prosocial behavior, if any, are conditioned by their respective experiences as the game progresses. Applying regression analyses on sample observations from two classroom experiments of modified public-goods games and trust games (by Carlos and Marasigan [2017] and Amante and Daro [2018], respectively), our results show that innate aggression per se is not associated with prosocial behavior. We find some evidence that innately aggressive, prosocial players who have experienced unfavourable or unfair outcomes in previous rounds tend to punish more intensely the non-cooperative players in public goods games, but continue to be generous towards selfish co-players in trust games. Thus, we posit that aggressive individuals who want to establish their perceived dominance (status) in a team behave prosocially initially, then later either elicit the cooperation of other players through aggressive punishment in the public goods game or unilaterally improve social welfare even at a personal cost to them in the trust game.  JEL classification: C71, C91, C92, D91
之前的研究发现,相对于无名指而言,食指较短的个体(手指比例较低)在成年后表现出攻击性行为,在本研究中,我们使用左手手指比例作为子宫内睾酮暴露的一个假定标志[Manning et al. 1998],作为攻击倾向的指标,来调查其与经济游戏背景下的亲社会行为之间的关系。首先,我们会问攻击性个体和非攻击性个体在亲社会行为上是否存在内在差异,而这与游戏的特征无关。其次,我们询问他们最初或随后的亲社会行为的差异(如果有的话)是否受到他们在游戏进程中各自经历的制约。通过对两个改进的公共物品游戏和信任游戏的课堂实验(分别由Carlos和Marasigan[2017]和Amante和Daro[2018]进行)的样本观察进行回归分析,我们的结果表明,先天攻击本身与亲社会行为无关。我们发现一些证据表明,在前几轮中经历了不利或不公平结果的天生具有攻击性、亲社会的参与者倾向于在公共物品博弈中更强烈地惩罚非合作参与者,但在信任博弈中继续对自私的合作参与者慷慨。因此,我们假设攻击性个体想要在团队中建立自己的感知优势(地位),最初表现为亲社会行为,然后在公共物品博弈中通过攻击性惩罚来吸引其他参与者的合作,或者在信任博弈中单方面提高社会福利,甚至以个人成本为代价。JEL分类:C71、C91、C92、D91
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引用次数: 0
Sovereign determination or disguised protectionism?: the vitamin C case 主权决心还是变相的保护主义?:维生素C病例
Pub Date : 2020-07-22 DOI: 10.37907/8erp9102jd
M. J. Abrenica
When a sovereign state vouches for the anti-competitive behaviour of its producers, it is incumbent upon the courts to abstain from adjudicating and allow economic diplomacy to take its course. The recent decision of the US Supreme Court on a cartel case involving Chinese exporters of vitamin C appears to favour pro-active judicial enforcement of antitrust law, however. Comity among nations calls for giving due deference to the legitimate choices of others with respect to regulating competition in their own industries. But a state harmed by the anti-competitive conduct of foreign producers faces the difficult choice between protecting its own interest and avoiding intrusion into the conduct of another sovereign state. This paper explores this conundrum, which has implications on states with a development agenda that subordinates competition to industrial goals.  JEL classification: L52, F1
当一个主权国家为其生产商的反竞争行为提供担保时,法院有责任放弃裁决,并允许经济外交顺其自然。然而,美国最高法院最近就一起涉及中国维生素C出口商的卡特尔案件作出的裁决似乎有利于反垄断法的积极司法执行。各国之间的共识要求在监管本国行业竞争方面,适当尊重其他国家的合法选择。但是,一个受到外国生产商反竞争行为伤害的国家面临着在保护自身利益和避免侵犯另一个主权国家行为之间的艰难选择。本文探讨了这一难题,它对那些将竞争置于工业目标之下的发展议程的州产生了影响。JEL分类:L52,F1
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引用次数: 0
The monkey in the mirror and other tales of central bank forward guidance 镜子里的猴子和其他央行前瞻性指引的故事
Pub Date : 2020-07-22 DOI: 10.37907/2erp9102jd
Eli M. Remolona
The literature advises central banks to provide forward guidance so as to make themselves predictable to markets. If possible, forward guidance should be Odyssean, in which the central bank commits itself to a clear course of action in the future. Central banks, however, often find themselves defying the theory by offering forward guidance that is rather reticent. Sometimes, the central bank may even deliberately surprise the markets. These departures from theory make sense in markets that behave as Keynesian beauty contests, in which some signals carry inordinate weight and thus lead markets astray. A degree of reticence compels market participants to do their own analysis and offer an independent view that can be useful to central banks. Otherwise, the central bank would find itself merely watching itself in the mirror. In some circumstances, the market may get stuck in a deleterious equilibrium, one born out of a false but well-told narrative. This may call for a “shock and awe” strategy, in which the central bank acts to surprise the market to force a rethinking of the narrative.  JEL classification: E52, E58, G1, G4
文献建议各国央行提供前瞻性指导,使其对市场具有可预测性。如果可能的话,未来的指导应该是奥德赛,央行承诺在未来采取明确的行动。然而,央行往往发现自己无视这一理论,提供了相当沉默的前瞻性指导。有时,央行甚至可能故意给市场一个惊喜。这些偏离理论的行为在凯恩斯主义选美比赛的市场中是有道理的,在这场比赛中,一些信号的分量过大,从而导致市场误入歧途。一定程度的沉默迫使市场参与者自己进行分析,并提供对央行有用的独立观点。否则,央行将发现自己只是在照镜子。在某些情况下,市场可能会陷入一种有害的平衡,这种平衡源于一种虚假但充分的叙述。这可能需要一种“震惊和敬畏”的策略,即央行采取行动让市场大吃一惊,迫使人们重新思考这种说法。JEL分类:E52、E58、G1、G4
{"title":"The monkey in the mirror and other tales of central bank forward guidance","authors":"Eli M. Remolona","doi":"10.37907/2erp9102jd","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37907/2erp9102jd","url":null,"abstract":"The literature advises central banks to provide forward guidance so as to make themselves predictable to markets. If possible, forward guidance should be Odyssean, in which the central bank commits itself to a clear course of action in the future. Central banks, however, often find themselves defying the theory by offering forward guidance that is rather reticent. Sometimes, the central bank may even deliberately surprise the markets. These departures from theory make sense in markets that behave as Keynesian beauty contests, in which some signals carry inordinate weight and thus lead markets astray. A degree of reticence compels market participants to do their own analysis and offer an independent view that can be useful to central banks. Otherwise, the central bank would find itself merely watching itself in the mirror. In some circumstances, the market may get stuck in a deleterious equilibrium, one born out of a false but well-told narrative. This may call for a “shock and awe” strategy, in which the central bank acts to surprise the market to force a rethinking of the narrative.  JEL classification: E52, E58, G1, G4","PeriodicalId":91420,"journal":{"name":"The Philippine review of economics","volume":"56 1","pages":"16-27"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45041393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Toward a fairer society: inequality and competition policy in developing Asia 迈向更公平的社会:发展中亚洲的不平等与竞争政策
Pub Date : 2020-07-22 DOI: 10.37907/7erp9102jd
A. Balisacan
Rising inequality poses a serious threat to sustained growth and poverty reduction in developing Asia. Many countries in the region have adopted competition policy—also known as antitrust—to promote economic welfare by protecting competitive processes, as well as in consideration of public interests, including social equity. This paper uses the Philippine experience to illustrate the conceptual and institutional issues in operationalising competition policy for development. Competition policy in the Philippines has historical roots in its struggle for economic and social reforms aimed at achieving inclusive development. Properly framing competition policy to stay close to its core guiding principle is key to its effectiveness in contributing to inclusive development. The paper concludes that, in the Philippine context, adhering to consumer welfare standards in competition policy promotes a fairer social outcome (i.e., reduction of income inequality and poverty) while improving economic efficiency.
不平等加剧对亚洲发展中国家的持续增长和减贫构成严重威胁。该地区的许多国家都采取了竞争政策(也称为反垄断),通过保护竞争过程以及考虑包括社会公平在内的公共利益来促进经济福利。本文利用菲律宾的经验来说明在实施竞争政策促进发展方面的概念和体制问题。菲律宾的竞争政策在其为实现包容性发展而进行的经济和社会改革斗争中具有历史根源。正确制定竞争政策,保持其核心指导原则,是其有效促进包容性发展的关键。本文的结论是,在菲律宾的背景下,在竞争政策中坚持消费者福利标准促进了更公平的社会结果(即减少收入不平等和贫困),同时提高了经济效率。
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引用次数: 2
Some reflections on the state of development economics in Asia 对亚洲发展经济学现状的几点思考
Pub Date : 2020-07-22 DOI: 10.37907/1erp9102jd
Hal Hill, S. Jayasuriya
This paper reviews some salient aspects of the state of development economics, from the early post-war pioneers through the major 1989 survey by Nicholas Stern, to contemporary experiences and lessons. The latter is illustrated with references to five South and Southeast Asian countries. While the techniques of economic analysis have become ever more sophisticated and the data bases larger and richer, significant analytical puzzles remain. The central question of why some countries perform well and others indifferently is still imperfectly understood. Because many factors—economic, political, institutional, as well as random events— shape countries’ development trajectories, country economic forecasting over the medium to longer run continues to be as much art as science.  JEL classification: B20, N15, O53
本文回顾了发展经济学现状的一些突出方面,从战后早期的先驱到1989年尼古拉斯·斯特恩的主要调查,再到当代的经验和教训。后者以五个南亚和东南亚国家为例加以说明。虽然经济分析的技术变得越来越复杂,数据库越来越大,越来越丰富,但重大的分析难题仍然存在。为什么一些国家表现良好而另一些国家表现不佳,这一核心问题仍然没有完全理解。由于许多因素——经济、政治、制度以及随机事件——塑造了国家的发展轨迹,因此中长期的国家经济预测仍然既是科学也是艺术。JEL分类:B20、N15、O53
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引用次数: 0
The case against the case for land reform: transactioncosts and misplaced exogeneity 反对土地改革的理由是:交易成本和错位的外生性
Pub Date : 2020-07-22 DOI: 10.37907/6erp9102jd
K. Jandoc, J. Roumasset
The paper reviews the pros and cons of land reform with particular attention to the Philippines. We find a repeated theme in supporting arguments for land-to-the-tiller reform and the outlawing of share tenancy: that land reform will improve efficiency by lowering transaction costs. We show that this is logically incorrect and fails to draw appropriate lessons from the evidence. More generally, the arguments for land reform suffer from misplaced exogeneity, in particular by implicitly regarding farm size and organizational form as exogenous.  JEL classification: O13, R52
本文回顾了土地改革的利弊,并特别关注菲律宾。我们发现,在支持“耕者有其田”改革和禁止共享租赁的论点中,一个反复出现的主题是:土地改革将通过降低交易成本来提高效率。我们表明,这在逻辑上是不正确的,未能从证据中得出适当的教训。更普遍的是,土地改革的论点受到了错位的外生性的影响,特别是隐含地将农场规模和组织形式视为外源性的。JEL分类:O13、R52
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引用次数: 0
期刊
The Philippine review of economics
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