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Public health policy impact evaluation: A potential use case for longitudinal monitoring of viruses in wastewater at small geographic scales 公共卫生政策影响评估:小地理范围内废水中病毒纵向监测的潜在应用案例
Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pwat.0000242
Elana M. G. Chan, A. Bidwell, Zongxi Li, S. Tilmans, A. Boehm
Public health policy impact evaluation is challenging to study because randomized controlled experiments are infeasible to conduct, and policy changes often coincide with non-policy events. Quasi-experiments do not use randomization and can provide useful knowledge for causal inference. Here we demonstrate how longitudinal wastewater monitoring of viruses at a small geographic scale may be used in a quasi-experimental design to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 public health policies on the spread of COVID-19 among a university population. We first evaluated the correlation between incident, reported COVID-19 cases and wastewater SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations and observed changes to the correlation over time, likely due to changes in testing requirements and testing options. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we then evaluated the association between university COVID-19 public health policy changes and levels of SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in wastewater. We did not observe changes in SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations associated with most policy changes. Policy changes associated with a significant change in campus wastewater SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations included changes to face covering recommendations, indoor gathering bans, and routine surveillance testing requirements and availability.
公共卫生政策影响评估研究具有挑战性,因为进行随机对照实验是不可行的,而且政策变化往往与非政策事件同时发生。准实验不使用随机化,可以为因果推断提供有用的知识。在此,我们展示了如何在准实验设计中使用小地理范围内的纵向病毒废水监测来评估 COVID-19 公共卫生政策对 COVID-19 在大学人群中传播的影响。我们首先评估了事件、报告的 COVID-19 病例与废水中 SARS-CoV-2 RNA 浓度之间的相关性,并观察到相关性随着时间的推移而变化,这可能是由于检测要求和检测方案的变化所致。然后,我们采用差分法评估了大学 COVID-19 公共卫生政策变化与废水中 SARS-CoV-2 RNA 浓度水平之间的关联。我们没有观察到与大多数政策变化相关的 SARS-CoV-2 RNA 浓度变化。与校园废水中 SARS-CoV-2 RNA 浓度的重大变化相关的政策变化包括遮盖面部建议、室内集会禁令以及常规监测检测要求和可用性的变化。
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引用次数: 0
The case for shared sanitation access in informal settlements: A dialogue on science, policy, and practice integration 非正规住区共享卫生设施的理由:关于科学、政策和实践一体化的对话
Pub Date : 2024-05-10 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pwat.0000243
Sarah Lebu, L. Sprouse, J. Akudago, Felix R. B. Twinomucunguzi, Ruthie Rosenberg, Yvonne Sanyu Lugali, B. Aine, Jackqueline Tu-uyen Nguyen, Chimdi C. Muoghalu, Swaib Semiyaga, Barbara Evans, M. Manga
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引用次数: 0
Longitudinal changes in hand hygiene adherence among healthcare workers during the COVID-19 pandemic, Dominican Republic 多米尼加共和国 COVID-19 大流行期间医护人员手部卫生坚持率的纵向变化
Pub Date : 2024-05-10 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pwat.0000231
C. D. Schnorr, Kathryn W. Roberts, E.C. Payano, Paloma Martínez Guzmán, M. De St. Aubin, Matthew Lozier, Salomé Garnier, D. Dumas, Kelsey McDavid, C. T. Then Paulino, R. Skewes-Ramm, C. Craig, E. Zielinski Gutiérrez, William Duke, E. Nilles
Hand hygiene (HH) can reduce transmission of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) in healthcare facilities and is especially important in low- and middle-income countries where HH infrastructure may be insufficient and the burden of HAIs is highest. At baseline, we assessed HH infrastructure and practices among healthcare workers (HCWs) at two large hospitals in the Dominican Republic during the COVID-19 pandemic. HCWs were observed for HH adherence (HHA) (defined as the use of alcohol-based hand rub (ABHR) or handwashing with soap and water) before and after patient contact and donning new gloves before patient contact. The baseline assessment was repeated following implementation of local production and distribution of ABHR and a HH promotion campaign. Descriptive analyses and regression models evaluated predictors of HHA and glove use. Cumulative HHA was 18.9%. While patient-care areas with a functional HH resource increased from 47% at baseline to 92% after the intervention, HHA declined from 23.0% to 16.7%. HHA was higher after patient contact (aOR = 5.88; 95% CI = 4.17–8.33), during a period of increased COVID-19 risk (aOR = 1.69; 95% CI = 1.05–2.77), during invasive patient contacts (aOR = 1.64; 95% CI = 1.23–2.17) and when gloves were not used (aOR = 1.25; 95% CI = 1.01–1.56). The negative association between glove use and HHA diminished when access to HH resources increased. New gloves were donned before 39.6% of patient contacts. Glove use was higher among nurses (aOR = 7.12; 95% CI = 3.02–16.79) and during invasive contacts (aOR = 4.76; 95% CI = 2.27–10.0). While access to HH resources increased after the interventions, HHA did not increase. HHA was lower when COVID-19 risk was lower. Findings from this study may guide future efforts to increase HHA among HCWs.
手部卫生 (HH) 可以减少医疗机构中的医源性感染 (HAI) 传播,这一点在中低收入国家尤为重要,因为这些国家的手部卫生基础设施可能不足,医源性感染的负担最重。在 COVID-19 大流行期间,我们对多米尼加共和国两家大型医院的卫生保健基础设施和医护人员(HCWs)的卫生保健实践进行了基线评估。我们观察了医护人员在接触患者前后是否遵守卫生设施(HHA)(定义为使用酒精擦手液(ABHR)或用肥皂和水洗手),以及在接触患者前是否佩戴新手套。在当地生产和分发 ABHR 并开展 HH 宣传活动后,再次进行基线评估。描述性分析和回归模型评估了 HHA 和手套使用的预测因素。累计 HHA 为 18.9%。在干预措施实施后,拥有功能性 HH 资源的病人护理区从基线时的 47% 增加到 92%,而 HHA 则从 23.0% 下降到 16.7%。患者接触后(aOR = 5.88;95% CI = 4.17-8.33)、COVID-19 风险增加期间(aOR = 1.69;95% CI = 1.05-2.77)、侵入性患者接触期间(aOR = 1.64;95% CI = 1.23-2.17)以及未使用手套时(aOR = 1.25;95% CI = 1.01-1.56),HHA 较高。当获得 HH 资源的机会增加时,手套使用与 HHA 之间的负相关关系就会减弱。39.6%的患者在接触前会戴上新手套。护士(aOR = 7.12; 95% CI = 3.02-16.79)和侵入性接触期间(aOR = 4.76; 95% CI = 2.27-10.0)的手套使用率更高。干预后,虽然获得 HH 资源的机会增加了,但 HHA 却没有增加。当 COVID-19 风险较低时,HHA 也较低。本研究的结果可为今后提高医护人员HHA的工作提供指导。
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引用次数: 0
Climate resilience of small-town water utilities in Eastern Ethiopia 埃塞俄比亚东部小城镇供水设施的气候适应能力
Pub Date : 2024-05-06 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pwat.0000158
Abraham Geremew, A. Nijhawan, B. Mengistie, Dinku Mekbib, Adrian Flint, Guy Howard
Climate change threatens the safety of water supplies globally, but small water supplies in rapidly growing and urbanizing towns in low- and middle-income countries are especially at risk. Despite the efforts of the Government of Ethiopia, research shows that that small-town water utilities in Ethiopia are poorly equipped to prioritize developing and maintaining climate-resilient water services. We applied the How tough is WASH framework for climate resilient water supplies to ten town water utilities in Eastern Ethiopia to identify their strengths and weaknesses in preparing for climate change. We found reports of weak institutional support from service authorities and exclusion of climate risk management from trainings, which cascades down to service providers in the form of lack of emergency response, inadequate staffing and financial mismanagement. This is consistent with previous studies on sustainability of town water utilities, and highlights the applicability of this tool into existing monitoring frameworks that have been proposed for town water utilities in Ethiopia. We also modified the How tough is WASH framework to capture these findings and better reflect the complexity of a utility-managed piped water supply.
气候变化威胁着全球的供水安全,但中低收入国家快速发展和城市化城镇中的小型供水设施尤其面临风险。尽管埃塞俄比亚政府做出了努力,但研究表明,埃塞俄比亚的小城镇供水公司在优先发展和维护适应气候的供水服务方面能力不足。我们将 "讲卫生运动有多艰难"(How tough is WASH)框架应用于埃塞俄比亚东部的十个城镇供水公司,以确定它们在应对气候变化方面的优势和劣势。我们发现有报告称,服务部门的机构支持薄弱,培训中也未提及气候风险管理,这就导致服务提供商缺乏应急响应、人员配备不足和财务管理不善。这与之前关于城镇供水设施可持续性的研究相一致,并突出了该工具在现有监测框架中的适用性,这些框架已被提议用于埃塞俄比亚的城镇供水设施。我们还修改了 "讲卫生运动有多艰难 "框架,以捕捉这些发现并更好地反映公用事业管理的自来水供应的复杂性。
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引用次数: 0
Unregulated drinking water contaminants and adverse birth outcomes in Virginia 弗吉尼亚州未受管制的饮用水污染物与不良出生结果
Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pwat.0000208
Holly A. Young, Korine N. Kolivras, L. H. Krometis, C. Marcillo, J. Gohlke
Through the Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule (UCMR), the Environmental Protection Agency monitors selected unregulated drinking water contaminants of potential concern. While contaminants listed in the UCMR are monitored, they do not have associated health-based standards, so no action is required following detection. Given evolving understanding of incidence and the lack of numeric standards, previous examinations of health implications of drinking water generally only assess impacts of regulated contaminants. Little research has examined associations between unregulated contaminants and fetal health. This study individually assesses whether drinking water contaminants monitored under UCMR 2 and, with a separate analysis, UCMR 3, which occurred during the monitoring years 2008–2010 and 2013–2015 respectively, are associated with fetal health outcomes, including low birth weight (LBW), term-low birth weight (tLBW), and preterm birth (PTB) in Virginia. Singleton births (n = 435,449) that occurred in Virginia during UCMR 2 and UCMR 3 were assigned to corresponding estimated water service areas (n = 435,449). Contaminant occurrence data were acquired from the National Contaminant Occurrence Database, with exposure defined at the estimated service area level to limit exposure misclassification. Logistic regression models for each birth outcome assessed potential associations with unregulated drinking water contaminants. Within UCMR 2, N-Nitroso-dimethylamine was positively associated with PTB (OR = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.14, P = 0.01). Molybdenum (OR = 0.92; 95% CI: 0.87, 0.97, P = 0.0) and vanadium (OR = 0.96; 95% CI: 0.92, 1.00, P = 0.04), monitored under UCMR 3, were negatively associated with LBW. Molybdenum was also negatively associated (OR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.82, 0.99, P = 0.03) with tLBW, though chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-22) was positively associated (OR 1.18; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.37, P = 0.03) with tLBW. These findings indicate that unregulated drinking water contaminants may pose risks to fetal health and demonstrate the potential to link existing health data with monitoring data when considering drinking water regulatory determinations at the national scale.
通过《未受管制的污染物监测规则》(UCMR),美国环保署对选定的可能引起关注的未受管制的饮用水污染物进行监测。虽然对 UCMR 中列出的污染物进行了监测,但这些污染物并没有相关的健康标准,因此在检测到污染物后无需采取任何行动。鉴于对发病率的认识在不断发展,且缺乏数值标准,以往对饮用水健康影响的研究通常只评估受管制污染物的影响。很少有研究探讨未受管制的污染物与胎儿健康之间的关联。本研究单独评估了弗吉尼亚州在 2008-2010 年和 2013-2015 年监测期间分别监测到的 UCMR 2 和 UCMR 3 监测到的饮用水污染物是否与胎儿健康结果有关,包括低出生体重 (LBW)、足月低出生体重 (tLBW) 和早产 (PTB)。弗吉尼亚州在 UCMR 2 和 UCMR 3 期间出生的单胎婴儿(n = 435,449 例)被分配到相应的估计供水服务区(n = 435,449 例)。污染物发生率数据来自国家污染物发生率数据库(National Contaminant Occurrence Database),其暴露定义为估计服务区水平,以限制暴露误分类。每个出生结果的逻辑回归模型评估了与未受管制的饮用水污染物的潜在关联。在 UCMR 2 中,N-亚硝基二甲胺与 PTB 呈正相关(OR = 1.08;95% CI:1.02,1.14,P = 0.01)。UCMR 3 监测的钼(OR = 0.92;95% CI:0.87,0.97,P = 0.0)和钒(OR = 0.96;95% CI:0.92,1.00,P = 0.04)与低体重儿呈负相关。钼也与终生低体重呈负相关(OR = 0.90;95% CI:0.82,0.99,P = 0.03),但氯二氟甲烷(HCFC-22)与终生低体重呈正相关(OR 1.18;95% CI:1.01,1.37,P = 0.03)。这些研究结果表明,未受监管的饮用水污染物可能会对胎儿健康构成风险,并表明在考虑全国范围内的饮用水监管决定时,有可能将现有健康数据与监测数据联系起来。
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引用次数: 0
Applying user-centered design to improve drinking water consumer confidence reports: A Baltimore case study 应用以用户为中心的设计来改进饮用水消费者信心报告:巴尔的摩案例研究
Pub Date : 2024-04-25 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pwat.0000162
M. Fox, Vidisha Agarwalla, Kayla R. Iuliano, J. H. Munroe, K. Nachman, Thomas A. Burke
The US Environmental Protection Agency is revising its policy on drinking water quality reports for consumers. These reports are intended to enhance the public’s “right to know” and to spur action to protect and promote safe water. However, these reports are known to be highly technical and difficult to access compromising their communication value. This study engaged a 10-person focus group to gather evidence on how these reports can be improved. We applied user-centered design principles to understand public drinking water consumer information needs and preferences and to develop new communication tools and methods. Through a set of in-depth interviews, we learned that most participants were unaware of the report until introduced to it during the study. The focus group participants voiced preferences for: better ways to convey technical information; more health information; a clearer understanding of costs and billing; and neighborhood or household level water quality information. Following the interviews, we convened two rounds of small group meetings to create new report designs and to review and refine the designs. The focus group developed a one-page summary statement, water contaminant trend charts, an interactive map, and other recommendations on ways to improve dissemination of the report. The project results, focus group recommendations and designs were submitted to the US Environmental Protection Agency for consideration as the policy for these reports is finalized. We believe these findings provide valuable insights into water quality communication challenges and that this approach is widely applicable and can be informative for water utilities as they prepare future reports.
美国环境保护局正在修订有关消费者饮用水质量报告的政策。这些报告旨在提高公众的 "知情权",并鼓励采取行动保护和促进安全用水。然而,众所周知,这些报告技术性较强,难以获取,影响了其传播价值。本研究邀请了一个 10 人焦点小组,就如何改进这些报告收集证据。我们运用以用户为中心的设计原则来了解公众饮用水消费者的信息需求和偏好,并开发新的传播工具和方法。通过一系列深入访谈,我们了解到大多数参与者在研究期间了解到该报告之前都不知道它。焦点小组的参与者表达了以下偏好:更好地传达技术信息;更多健康信息;更清楚地了解成本和账单;以及社区或家庭层面的水质信息。访谈结束后,我们召开了两轮小组会议,以创建新的报告设计,并对设计进行审查和完善。焦点小组制定了一页纸的简要说明、水污染物趋势图、互动地图,并就如何改进报告的传播提出了其他建议。项目成果、焦点小组建议和设计已提交给美国环境保护局,供其在最终确定这些报告的政策时考虑。我们相信,这些研究结果为水质传播方面的挑战提供了有价值的见解,而且这种方法具有广泛的适用性,可为水务公司今后编写报告提供参考。
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引用次数: 0
Complex drivers of geomorphic response and habitat formation revealed in multiyear monitoring of Cosumnes River experimental floodplain reconnection 对科苏米斯河试验性洪泛区再连接的多年监测揭示了地貌响应和生境形成的复杂驱动因素
Pub Date : 2024-04-17 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pwat.0000132
Britne Clifton, J. Viers
In this study, we examine a novel levee breach experiment that reconnected a floodplain along the Cosumnes River, California to determine the decadal impact of removing 250 meters of levee and assess the recruitment of large wood. This is the latest study in an ongoing series of investigations 40 years in the making along the largest river on the western slope of the Sierra Nevada without a major dam. We present the findings of this multi-modal investigation here by first measuring the geomorphic alteration of the floodplain surface to quantify the depletion and accretion of sediment across the excavated site. We then identify and quantify the deposition of large wood. Results indicate initiation of anastomosing channel formation and distinct areas of large wood recruitment supporting a naturally evolving lateral levee. Accretion resulted in more than 25,000 m3 of sediment deposition within the original excavation site, the development of multiple sand splays, and natural recruitment of native riparian tree species. We conclude by discussing implications following other approaches to floodplain restoration as a Nature-based Solution. In episodic flow regimes, like in California’s Mediterranean-montane hydroclimatic regime, restoring lateral hydrologic connectivity facilitates ecosystem function. Large flood pulse events drive sediment dynamics and geomorphic heterogeneity while enriching biodiversity through biogeochemical fluxes and habitat creation on reconnected floodplains that store floodwaters and reduce peak discharge. These findings support the importance of long-term monitoring efforts of floodplain restoration.
在这项研究中,我们考察了一项新颖的堤坝破坏实验,该实验重新连接了加利福尼亚州科苏恩斯河沿岸的洪泛平原,以确定拆除 250 米堤坝的十年影响,并评估大型木材的招募情况。这是一项持续进行了 40 年的系列调查中的最新研究,该调查沿内华达山脉西坡最大的一条没有大坝的河流进行。我们在此介绍这项多模式调查的结果,首先测量洪泛区表面的地貌变化,以量化整个挖掘地点的沉积物损耗和增殖情况。然后,我们对大木头的沉积进行识别和量化。结果表明,吻合河道开始形成,并有明显的大木头聚集区,支撑着自然演化的横向堤坝。沉积物在最初的挖掘地点沉积了超过 25,000 立方米,形成了多个沙层,并自然形成了本地河岸树种。最后,我们讨论了其他洪泛区恢复方法作为基于自然的解决方案的意义。在偶发性水流系统中,如在加利福尼亚的地中海-山地水文气候系统中,恢复横向水文连通性有利于生态系统功能的发挥。大洪水脉冲事件会推动沉积物动力学和地貌异质性,同时通过生物地球化学通量以及在重新连通的洪泛平原上创造栖息地来丰富生物多样性,这些平原可以储存洪水并降低峰值排水量。这些发现证明了长期监测洪泛平原恢复工作的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Large scale water yield assessment for sparsely monitored river basins: A case study for Afghanistan 对监测稀少的河流流域进行大规模水量评估:阿富汗案例研究
Pub Date : 2024-04-16 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pwat.0000165
Fazlul Karim, David J. Penton, Santosh K. Aryal, Shahriar Wahid, Yun Chen, Peter Taylor, Susan M. Cuddy
This paper presents results from a study on water yield assessment across five major river basins of Afghanistan. The study was conducted using GR4J and GR4JSG precipitation-runoff models. The river basins were divided into 207 subcatchments and each subcatchment was divided into multiple functional units. The model was calibrated using observed streamflow data from 2008 to 2015 and validated over the 2016 to 2020 period. Model parameters were calibrated for an unregulated subcatchment in each basin and calibrated parameters from the best-performing subcatchment were transferred to other subcatchments. Results show that modelled water yield across the five basins varies from 0.3 mm in the Helmand basin to 248 mm in the Panj-Amu basin, with an average of 72.1 mm for the entire country. In the period of 2008 to 2020, area averaged water yield in the five basins varies from 36 to 174 mm. For the same period, mean annual precipitation for the entire country is 234.0 mm, indicating a water yield of 30.8%. The nation-wide average water yield of 72.1 mm is equivalent to 46.3 billion cubic meters (BCM) of surface water for the country. In addition, about 28.9 BCM generates annually in the neighbouring Tajikistan and Pakistan from snow and glaciers of the Hindu-Kush mountains. The elevated northern parts of Afghanistan, including parts of neighbouring Tajikistan are the primary water source. Water yield across the country varies between years but there is no consistent increasing or decreasing trends. About 60 to 70% of flow occurs between March to June. The study identified the high water yield areas and investigated variability at monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales. An importance finding is the large spatial and temporal variability of water yield across the basins. This information is crucial for long-term water resources planning and management for agricultural development.
本文介绍了阿富汗五大流域水资源产量评估研究的结果。研究采用 GR4J 和 GR4JSG 降水径流模型进行。流域被划分为 207 个子流域,每个子流域又被划分为多个功能单元。模型利用 2008 年至 2015 年的观测流量数据进行校核,并在 2016 年至 2020 年期间进行验证。对每个流域中的一个非管制子流域进行了模型参数校准,并将表现最好的子流域的校准参数转移到其他子流域。结果显示,五个流域的模型产水量从赫尔曼德流域的 0.3 毫米到潘杰-阿穆流域的 248 毫米不等,全国平均为 72.1 毫米。2008 年至 2020 年期间,五个流域的地区平均产水量从 36 毫米到 174 毫米不等。同期,全国平均年降水量为 234.0 毫米,表明产水量为 30.8%。全国平均产水量为 72.1 毫米,相当于 463 亿立方米(BCM)的地表水。此外,邻近的塔吉克斯坦和巴基斯坦每年从兴都库什山脉的积雪和冰川中获得的水量约为 289 亿立方米。阿富汗北部的高地,包括邻国塔吉克斯坦的部分地区,是主要的水源。全国各地的产水量在不同年份有所不同,但没有持续的增减趋势。约 60% 至 70% 的流量出现在 3 月至 6 月间。研究确定了高产水量地区,并调查了月度、季节和年度时间尺度的变化情况。一个重要的发现是,各流域的产水量在空间和时间上都有很大的变化。这些信息对于农业发展的长期水资源规划和管理至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Integrating data within watershed management and public health 在流域管理和公共卫生范围内整合数据
Pub Date : 2024-04-16 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pwat.0000237
Lars K. Hallstrom
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引用次数: 0
Stage and discharge prediction from documentary time-lapse imagery 通过文献延时摄影预测水位和排水量
Pub Date : 2024-04-16 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pwat.0000106
Kenneth W. Chapman, T. Gilmore, M. Mehrubeoglu, Christian D. Chapman, A. Mittelstet, John E. Stranzl
Imagery from fixed, ground-based cameras is rich in qualitative and quantitative information that can improve stream discharge monitoring. For instance, time-lapse imagery may be valuable for filling data gaps when sensors fail and/or during lapses in funding for monitoring programs. In this study, we used a large image archive (>40,000 images from 2012 to 2019) from a fixed, ground-based camera that is part of a documentary watershed imaging project (https://plattebasintimelapse.com/). Scalar image features were extracted from daylight images taken at one-hour intervals. The image features were fused with United States Geological Survey stage and discharge data as response variables from the site. Predictions of stage and discharge for simulated year-long data gaps (2015, 2016, and 2017 water years) were generated from Multi-layer Perceptron, Random Forest Regression, and Support Vector Regression models. A Kalman filter was applied to the predictions to remove noise. Error metrics were calculated, including Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and an alternative threshold-based performance metric that accounted for seasonal runoff. NSE for the year-long gap predictions ranged from 0.63 to 0.90 for discharge and 0.47 to 0.90 for stage, with greater errors in 2016 when stream discharge during the gap period greatly exceeded discharge during the training periods. Importantly, and in contrast to gap-filling methods that do not use imagery, the high discharge conditions in 2016 could be visually (qualitatively) verified from the image data. Half-year test sets were created for 2016 to include higher discharges in the training sets, thus improving model performance. While additional machine learning algorithms and tuning parameters for selected models should be tested further, this study demonstrates the potential value of ground-based time-lapse images for filling large gaps in hydrologic time series data. Cameras dedicated for hydrologic sensing, including nighttime imagery, could further improve results.
固定地面相机拍摄的图像包含丰富的定性和定量信息,可改善溪流排放监测。例如,延时图像可以填补传感器故障和/或监测项目资金短缺时的数据缺口。在这项研究中,我们使用了一个大型图像档案(从 2012 年到 2019 年,超过 40,000 张图像),该档案来自一台固定的地面相机,是文献流域成像项目的一部分 (https://plattebasintimelapse.com/)。从每隔一小时拍摄的日光图像中提取了标量图像特征。图像特征与美国地质调查局的水位和排水量数据融合,作为现场的响应变量。多层感知器、随机森林回归和支持向量回归模型生成了模拟一年数据缺口(2015、2016 和 2017 水年)的水位和排水量预测值。预测结果采用卡尔曼滤波器去除噪声。计算了误差指标,包括纳什-苏特克利夫效率(NSE)和一种基于阈值的替代性能指标,该指标考虑了季节性径流。全年间隙预测的排泄量 NSE 为 0.63 至 0.90,水位 NSE 为 0.47 至 0.90,其中 2016 年的误差更大,因为间隙期的河流排泄量大大超过了训练期的排泄量。重要的是,与不使用图像的缺口填补方法不同,2016 年的高排水量情况可以通过图像数据直观地(定性地)验证。为 2016 年创建了半年测试集,以便在训练集中包含更高的排水量,从而提高模型性能。虽然应进一步测试所选模型的其他机器学习算法和调整参数,但本研究证明了地面延时图像在填补水文时间序列数据的巨大空白方面的潜在价值。专用于水文传感的相机,包括夜间图像,可以进一步改善结果。
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引用次数: 0
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PLOS water
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