Pub Date : 2026-01-30DOI: 10.64898/2026.01.27.26344860
Christiana Westlin, Cristina Bleier, Andrew J Guthrie, Sara A Finkelstein, Julie Maggio, Jessica Ranford, Julie MacLean, Ellen Godena, Daniel Millstein, Jennifer Freeburn, Caitlin Adams, Christopher D Stephen, Ibai Diez, David L Perez
Background: Clinical trajectories in functional neurological disorder (FND) are variable, and the mechanisms underlying this heterogeneity remain poorly understood.
Objective: This longitudinal study examined resting-state functional connectivity predictors and mechanisms of symptom change in FND.
Methods: Thirty-two adults with FND (motor and/or seizure phenotypes) completed baseline questionnaires and a functional MRI (fMRI) session, followed by naturalistic treatment for 6.8±0.8 months. All participants completed follow-up questionnaires; 28 individuals completed a follow-up fMRI. At each timepoint, three graph-theory network metrics of functional connectivity were computed: weighted-degree (centrality), integration ( between-network connectivity), and segregation ( within-network connectivity). Analyses adjusted for age, sex, anti-depressants, head motion, time between sessions, and baseline score-of-interest, with cluster-wise correction. Results were contextualized against 50 age-, sex-, and head motion-matched healthy controls (HCs).
Results: Based on patient-reported Clinical Global Impression of Improvement, 59.4% improved, 31.3% were unchanged, and 9.3% worsened. Psychometric scores of core FND symptoms and non-core physical symptoms showed variable trajectories, with no group-level changes. Greater improvement in core FND symptoms was associated with higher baseline between-network integrated connectivity and reduced integration longitudinally within salience, frontoparietal, and default mode network regions. Right anterior insula integration emerged as a prognostic marker and mechanistic site of reorganization, with the most improved participants showing elevated baseline integration compared to HCs. Increased baseline within-network segregated connectivity in dorsal attention network regions correlated with non-core physical symptom improvement. Findings remained significant adjusting for FND phenotype.
Conclusions: This study identified large-scale network interactions as potential prognostic and mechanistically-relevant sites of reorganization related to symptom change in FND.
{"title":"Functional Connectivity Predictors and Mechanisms of Symptom Change in Functional Neurological Disorder.","authors":"Christiana Westlin, Cristina Bleier, Andrew J Guthrie, Sara A Finkelstein, Julie Maggio, Jessica Ranford, Julie MacLean, Ellen Godena, Daniel Millstein, Jennifer Freeburn, Caitlin Adams, Christopher D Stephen, Ibai Diez, David L Perez","doi":"10.64898/2026.01.27.26344860","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.01.27.26344860","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Clinical trajectories in functional neurological disorder (FND) are variable, and the mechanisms underlying this heterogeneity remain poorly understood.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>This longitudinal study examined resting-state functional connectivity predictors and mechanisms of symptom change in FND.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Thirty-two adults with FND (motor and/or seizure phenotypes) completed baseline questionnaires and a functional MRI (fMRI) session, followed by naturalistic treatment for 6.8±0.8 months. All participants completed follow-up questionnaires; 28 individuals completed a follow-up fMRI. At each timepoint, three graph-theory network metrics of functional connectivity were computed: weighted-degree (centrality), integration ( <i>between-network</i> connectivity), and segregation ( <i>within-network</i> connectivity). Analyses adjusted for age, sex, anti-depressants, head motion, time between sessions, and baseline score-of-interest, with cluster-wise correction. Results were contextualized against 50 age-, sex-, and head motion-matched healthy controls (HCs).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Based on patient-reported Clinical Global Impression of Improvement, 59.4% improved, 31.3% were unchanged, and 9.3% worsened. Psychometric scores of core FND symptoms and non-core physical symptoms showed variable trajectories, with no group-level changes. Greater improvement in core FND symptoms was associated with higher baseline <i>between-network</i> integrated connectivity and reduced integration longitudinally within salience, frontoparietal, and default mode network regions. Right anterior insula integration emerged as a prognostic marker and mechanistic site of reorganization, with the most improved participants showing elevated baseline integration compared to HCs. Increased baseline <i>within-network</i> segregated connectivity in dorsal attention network regions correlated with non-core physical symptom improvement. Findings remained significant adjusting for FND phenotype.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>This study identified large-scale network interactions as potential prognostic and mechanistically-relevant sites of reorganization related to symptom change in FND.</p>","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12870675/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146127585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-30DOI: 10.64898/2025.12.19.25342620
Sheng Qian, Kaixuan Luo, Xiaotong Sun, Wesley Crouse, Lifan Liang, Jing Gu, Matthew Stephens, Siming Zhao, Xin He
Recent studies showed that expression QTLs, even from trait-related tissues, explained a small fraction of complex trait heritability. A natural strategy to close this gap is to incorporate molecular QTLs (molQTLs) beyond gene expression, across diverse tissue/cellular contexts. Yet, integrating such QTL data presents analytical challenges. Molecular traits often share QTLs or have QTLs in high LD, complicating the attribution of GWAS signals to specific molecular traits. Our simulations showed that commonly used colocalization and TWAS methods have highly inflated false positive rates in such settings. Building on our earlier work, we developed multi-group causal TWAS (M-cTWAS), for integrating QTLs of different modalities and contexts. M-cTWAS is able to estimate the contribution of each group of molQTLs to the trait heritability, and using such information, identifies the causal molecular traits, informing the modalities and contexts through which genetic variations act on the phenotype. M-cTWAS showed improved control of false discoveries than commonly used methods. Using M-cTWAS, we found that QTLs of multiple modalities greatly increased the explained heritability compared to using eQTLs alone, and enabled the discovery of many more risk genes of a range of complex traits. In conclusion, M-cTWAS effectively integrates diverse molecular QTLs with GWAS to enable causal gene discovery.
{"title":"Integrating multi-omics and multi-context QTL data with GWAS reveals the genetic architecture of complex traits and improves the discovery of risk genes.","authors":"Sheng Qian, Kaixuan Luo, Xiaotong Sun, Wesley Crouse, Lifan Liang, Jing Gu, Matthew Stephens, Siming Zhao, Xin He","doi":"10.64898/2025.12.19.25342620","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2025.12.19.25342620","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Recent studies showed that expression QTLs, even from trait-related tissues, explained a small fraction of complex trait heritability. A natural strategy to close this gap is to incorporate molecular QTLs (molQTLs) beyond gene expression, across diverse tissue/cellular contexts. Yet, integrating such QTL data presents analytical challenges. Molecular traits often share QTLs or have QTLs in high LD, complicating the attribution of GWAS signals to specific molecular traits. Our simulations showed that commonly used colocalization and TWAS methods have highly inflated false positive rates in such settings. Building on our earlier work, we developed multi-group causal TWAS (M-cTWAS), for integrating QTLs of different modalities and contexts. M-cTWAS is able to estimate the contribution of each group of molQTLs to the trait heritability, and using such information, identifies the causal molecular traits, informing the modalities and contexts through which genetic variations act on the phenotype. M-cTWAS showed improved control of false discoveries than commonly used methods. Using M-cTWAS, we found that QTLs of multiple modalities greatly increased the explained heritability compared to using eQTLs alone, and enabled the discovery of many more risk genes of a range of complex traits. In conclusion, M-cTWAS effectively integrates diverse molecular QTLs with GWAS to enable causal gene discovery.</p>","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12870653/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146128189","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-30DOI: 10.64898/2026.01.29.26344899
Evelynne S Fulda, Bennett J Waxse, Slavina B Goleva, Tam C Tran, Henry J Taylor, Caitlin P Bailey, Dana L Wolff-Hughes, Huan Mo, Chenjie Zeng, Jacob M Keaton, Tracey M Ferrara, Anya Topiwala, Aiden Doherty, Joshua C Denny
Background: Insufficient physical activity (PA) is associated with higher risk of morbidity and premature mortality. Wearable devices offer a scalable, objective measurement of physical activity, but most studies reduce these data to a single activity metric measured over a fixed 7-day period. We compared different wearable-derived phenotyping approaches to understand their impact on activity-disease associations.
Methods: We analyzed 11 million days of Fitbit data from 29,351 participants in the All of Us Research Program, deriving four daily activity metrics (step count, peak 1-min cadence, peak 30-min cadence, and heart rate per step) across five time-windows (1-day, 1-week, 1-month, 6-months, 1-year). We performed phenome-wide analyses on >700 incident and >1,300 prevalent disease outcomes identified from linked electronic health records.
Findings: Among participants with EHR and Fitbit data (mean age 57.3 years, 69% female, 47% with >1 year of Fitbit data), all 20 phenotypes were highly correlated (median Pearson r = 0.71). Longer measurement windows yielded stronger and more stable associations, with 1-year step count associated with 373 prevalent and 37 incident outcomes (versus 231 and 17 for 1-day step count) after Bonferroni-correction, including novel associations with chronic pain syndrome, SARS-CoV-2, and autoimmune disease. Differences between prevalent and incident associations suggest that activity metrics can act as both early markers of disease or risk factors.
Interpretation: These findings highlight how large-scale, longitudinal wearable data can advance understanding of health and disease and inform scalable approaches for clinical risk stratification.
Funding: National Institutes of Health Intramural Research Program, Wellcome Trust.
{"title":"11 million days of longitudinal wearable data reveal novel future health insights.","authors":"Evelynne S Fulda, Bennett J Waxse, Slavina B Goleva, Tam C Tran, Henry J Taylor, Caitlin P Bailey, Dana L Wolff-Hughes, Huan Mo, Chenjie Zeng, Jacob M Keaton, Tracey M Ferrara, Anya Topiwala, Aiden Doherty, Joshua C Denny","doi":"10.64898/2026.01.29.26344899","DOIUrl":"10.64898/2026.01.29.26344899","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Insufficient physical activity (PA) is associated with higher risk of morbidity and premature mortality. Wearable devices offer a scalable, objective measurement of physical activity, but most studies reduce these data to a single activity metric measured over a fixed 7-day period. We compared different wearable-derived phenotyping approaches to understand their impact on activity-disease associations.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We analyzed 11 million days of Fitbit data from 29,351 participants in the <i>All of Us</i> Research Program, deriving four daily activity metrics (step count, peak 1-min cadence, peak 30-min cadence, and heart rate per step) across five time-windows (1-day, 1-week, 1-month, 6-months, 1-year). We performed phenome-wide analyses on >700 incident and >1,300 prevalent disease outcomes identified from linked electronic health records.</p><p><strong>Findings: </strong>Among participants with EHR and Fitbit data (mean age 57.3 years, 69% female, 47% with >1 year of Fitbit data), all 20 phenotypes were highly correlated (median Pearson r = 0.71). Longer measurement windows yielded stronger and more stable associations, with 1-year step count associated with 373 prevalent and 37 incident outcomes (versus 231 and 17 for 1-day step count) after Bonferroni-correction, including novel associations with chronic pain syndrome, SARS-CoV-2, and autoimmune disease. Differences between prevalent and incident associations suggest that activity metrics can act as both early markers of disease or risk factors.</p><p><strong>Interpretation: </strong>These findings highlight how large-scale, longitudinal wearable data can advance understanding of health and disease and inform scalable approaches for clinical risk stratification.</p><p><strong>Funding: </strong>National Institutes of Health Intramural Research Program, Wellcome Trust.</p>","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12870592/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146128255","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-30DOI: 10.64898/2026.01.28.26344977
Garrett B Anspach, Robert M Flight, Sehyung Park, Hunter N B Moseley, Robert N Helsley
Background: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is the fastest-growing etiology of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). A mechanistic understanding of the metabolic heterogeneity of MASLD-driven tumors is crucial to inform strategies for future treatment options.
Methods: Paired tumor (n=8) and adjacent non-tumor tissue (n=8) were collected from patients with steatohepatitic HCC at the University of Kentucky Markey Cancer Center. Hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) staining was used for pathological determination of tumor and adjacent nontumor tissue by a board-certified pathologist. Lipidomic, metabolomic, and transcriptomic analyses were performed, and data were integrated across platforms to identify novel relationships across tumor and adjacent nontumor tissue.
Results: Histological analysis by H&E showed significant lipid vacuole accumulation and inflammatory foci in HCC tumors relative to nontumor tissue. Across omics platforms, we identified 1,679 genes, 1,696 metabolites, and 292 lipids that were significantly (padj<0.01) increased or decreased in tumors relative to nontumor tissue. We identified significant reductions in total ceramides and increases in fatty acyl chain saturation in tumor tissue. Furthermore, metabolites involved in amino acid and fatty acid metabolism were largely decreased in tumors relative to nontumor tissue. We also identified a total of 303 highly significant and novel transcript-metabolite associations (117 gene-metabolite; 186 gene-lipid) across tumor and nontumor tissue.
Conclusions: Taken together, this integrative analysis reveals novel relationships between steady-state gene transcripts and specific metabolites in steatohepatitic tumors, thereby identifying new pharmacological targets that may be exploited for therapeutic benefit.
{"title":"An Integrated Multi-omic Analysis Reveals Novel Gene-Metabolite Relationships in Human Steatohepatitic Hepatocellular Carcinoma.","authors":"Garrett B Anspach, Robert M Flight, Sehyung Park, Hunter N B Moseley, Robert N Helsley","doi":"10.64898/2026.01.28.26344977","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.01.28.26344977","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is the fastest-growing etiology of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). A mechanistic understanding of the metabolic heterogeneity of MASLD-driven tumors is crucial to inform strategies for future treatment options.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Paired tumor (n=8) and adjacent non-tumor tissue (n=8) were collected from patients with steatohepatitic HCC at the University of Kentucky Markey Cancer Center. Hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) staining was used for pathological determination of tumor and adjacent nontumor tissue by a board-certified pathologist. Lipidomic, metabolomic, and transcriptomic analyses were performed, and data were integrated across platforms to identify novel relationships across tumor and adjacent nontumor tissue.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Histological analysis by H&E showed significant lipid vacuole accumulation and inflammatory foci in HCC tumors relative to nontumor tissue. Across omics platforms, we identified 1,679 genes, 1,696 metabolites, and 292 lipids that were significantly (padj<0.01) increased or decreased in tumors relative to nontumor tissue. We identified significant reductions in total ceramides and increases in fatty acyl chain saturation in tumor tissue. Furthermore, metabolites involved in amino acid and fatty acid metabolism were largely decreased in tumors relative to nontumor tissue. We also identified a total of 303 highly significant and novel transcript-metabolite associations (117 gene-metabolite; 186 gene-lipid) across tumor and nontumor tissue.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Taken together, this integrative analysis reveals novel relationships between steady-state gene transcripts and specific metabolites in steatohepatitic tumors, thereby identifying new pharmacological targets that may be exploited for therapeutic benefit.</p>","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12870632/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146127717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-30DOI: 10.64898/2026.01.28.26345064
Muhammad N Aslam, Danielle Kim Turgeon, Shannon McClintock, Ron Allen, Ananda Sen, James Varani
Introduction: Previous studies have shown that Aquamin ® , a multi-mineral extract from red marine algae, enhances barrier integrity proteins in the human colon. These findings prompted further investigation into Aquamin ® 's effects on gastrointestinal barrier function and permeability.
Methods: Subjects with mild or in remission ulcerative colitis (UC) and healthy controls were enrolled in an open-label trial and received Aquamin ® capsules (800 mg calcium/day) for 90 days. Intestinal permeability was evaluated before and after the 90-day intervention by urinary mannitol excretion after ingestion of a 5 g mannitol solution, with collections across several time intervals (pre-drink, 0-2 h, 2-8 h, and 8-24 h). The primary outcome was the change in mannitol excretion. Serum samples were also collected to assess liver and renal function.
Results: In this pilot study ( NCT04855799 ), which included UC patients and healthy controls (n = 8 per group), baseline urine mannitol levels in the 0-2 h sample were 54% higher in UC patients compared to healthy subjects (p = 0.006). Following 90 days of Aquamin ® supplementation, urinary mannitol levels in UC patients decreased by 28%, 26%, and 41% at the 0-2 h, 2-8 h, and 8-24 h timepoints, respectively; the reduction at the 0-2 h interval reached statistical significance (p = 0.015). Overall, Aquamin ® supplementation reduced total post-intervention mannitol excretion by 29% (p = 0.024). Aquamin ® was well tolerated, with no serious adverse events reported. The serum metabolic panel revealed a modest but statistically significant reduction in alkaline phosphatase levels after 90 days of intervention.
Conclusion: These results provide preliminary evidence that Aquamin ® supplementation beneficially modulates gut barrier function and supports epithelial integrity in UC patients. These findings support further investigation of Aquamin ® as a safe and promising adjunct to current UC management strategies, with potential utility as a barrier therapy in UC.
Summary: Aquamin ® supplementation for 90 days reduced intestinal permeability in ulcerative colitis patients, as measured by urinary mannitol excretion. The intervention was well tolerated, suggesting Aquamin ® may be a safe, promising adjunct for enhancing gut barrier function in UC management.
{"title":"A Multi-Mineral Intervention Improves Intestinal Permeability in Patients with Ulcerative Colitis: Results from a 90-Day Pilot Trial.","authors":"Muhammad N Aslam, Danielle Kim Turgeon, Shannon McClintock, Ron Allen, Ananda Sen, James Varani","doi":"10.64898/2026.01.28.26345064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.01.28.26345064","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Previous studies have shown that Aquamin <sup>®</sup> , a multi-mineral extract from red marine algae, enhances barrier integrity proteins in the human colon. These findings prompted further investigation into Aquamin <sup>®</sup> 's effects on gastrointestinal barrier function and permeability.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Subjects with mild or in remission ulcerative colitis (UC) and healthy controls were enrolled in an open-label trial and received Aquamin <sup>®</sup> capsules (800 mg calcium/day) for 90 days. Intestinal permeability was evaluated before and after the 90-day intervention by urinary mannitol excretion after ingestion of a 5 g mannitol solution, with collections across several time intervals (pre-drink, 0-2 h, 2-8 h, and 8-24 h). The primary outcome was the change in mannitol excretion. Serum samples were also collected to assess liver and renal function.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In this pilot study ( NCT04855799 ), which included UC patients and healthy controls (n = 8 per group), baseline urine mannitol levels in the 0-2 h sample were 54% higher in UC patients compared to healthy subjects (p = 0.006). Following 90 days of Aquamin <sup>®</sup> supplementation, urinary mannitol levels in UC patients decreased by 28%, 26%, and 41% at the 0-2 h, 2-8 h, and 8-24 h timepoints, respectively; the reduction at the 0-2 h interval reached statistical significance (p = 0.015). Overall, Aquamin <sup>®</sup> supplementation reduced total post-intervention mannitol excretion by 29% (p = 0.024). Aquamin <sup>®</sup> was well tolerated, with no serious adverse events reported. The serum metabolic panel revealed a modest but statistically significant reduction in alkaline phosphatase levels after 90 days of intervention.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>These results provide preliminary evidence that Aquamin <sup>®</sup> supplementation beneficially modulates gut barrier function and supports epithelial integrity in UC patients. These findings support further investigation of Aquamin <sup>®</sup> as a safe and promising adjunct to current UC management strategies, with potential utility as a barrier therapy in UC.</p><p><strong>Summary: </strong>Aquamin <sup>®</sup> supplementation for 90 days reduced intestinal permeability in ulcerative colitis patients, as measured by urinary mannitol excretion. The intervention was well tolerated, suggesting Aquamin <sup>®</sup> may be a safe, promising adjunct for enhancing gut barrier function in UC management.</p>","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12870605/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146128248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-30DOI: 10.64898/2026.01.28.26345028
Kavita Singh, Ambuj Roy, Dimple Kondal, Kalyani Nikhare, Mareesha Gandral, Satish G Patil, Kiran Aithal, M P Girish, Mohit Gupta, Kushal Madan, Jps Sawhney, Kamar Ali, Meetushi Jain, Savitesh Kushwaha, Devraj Jindal, Emily Mendenhall, Shivani A Patel, K M Venkat Narayan, Nikhil Tandon, Mark D Huffman, Dorairaj Prabhakaran
<p><strong>Background: </strong>Chronic cardiovascular diseases (CVD) care quality remains suboptimal, globally. This study evaluated the feasibility and preliminary effect of a multicomponent, collaborative quality improvement (C-QIP) strategy among patients with CVD attending outpatient clinics in India.</p><p><strong>Methods and findings: </strong>We conducted a pragmatic feasibility randomized controlled trial in patients with ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke or heart failure across public and private hospitals in India. Participants were individually randomized to C-QIP strategy (electronic decision support system, eDSS for providers, task-sharing with non-physician health workers, patient education, and SMS text reminders, and audit-feedback) or usual care. The primary outcomes were implementation measures: feasibility, fidelity, adoption, and acceptability from provider's and patient's perspectives. Secondary outcomes included prescription of guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT), adherence to prescribed therapy, processes of care, and CVD risk factors. Of 410 participants enrolled (intervention arm=206 and usual care arm=204), mean age was 57.5 years, and 73.0% were male. Prior history of coronary heart disease was 74.6%, ischemic stroke: 18.5%, and heart failure: 18.0%. At trial end (mean follow-up 18 months), implementation outcomes were strong: retention at end-of-study was 192/206 (93.2%) in C-QIP and 187/204 (91.7%) in usual care arm; fidelity of the intervention remained high, e.g., 187/198 (94.4%) patients received lifestyle advice at end-of-study. Clinician adoption of eDSS prompts was high, and acceptance of DSS prompts varied by type of prompts, and both patients and providers reported high acceptability at trial end. GDMT use improved significantly in C-QIP vs usual care arm at end-of-study: in patients with ischemic heart disease use of antiplatelet + statin + ACEi/ARB + beta-blocker was 58.3% vs 32.4%, RR=1.45 (95%CI: 1.18-1.78); and among patients with ischemic stroke use of antiplatelet + statin + ACEi/ARB or diuretic was 76.7% vs 31.8%, RR=2.41 (95%CI: 1.52-3.81). GDMT among patients with heart failure were not different between groups (e.g., ACEi/ARB /ARNI + beta-blocker + MRA, 48.9% vs 48.6%, RR=1.26, 95%CI: 0.82-1.94). Patient adherence to prescribed therapy improved in C-QIP vs usual care arm: medications 90.9% vs 82.3%, RR 1.08 (1.04-1.12); diet plan 91.9% vs 82.3%, RR 1.07 (1.02-1.13); and physical activity 91.4% vs 70.4%, RR=1.23 (95%CI: 1.16-1.30). Processes of care improved significantly in C-QIP vs usual care arm, including more structured reminders (e.g., call after missed appointment 70.7% vs 4.4%, p<0.001) and longer clinician contact time (median 10 vs 7 minutes, p<0.001). CVD risk factors showed small, non-significant trends (e.g., modest diastolic BP reduction) for between-group differences in blood pressure, lipids and glycemia.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The C-QIP trial demonstrated th
背景:慢性心血管疾病(CVD)的护理质量在全球范围内仍处于次优状态。本研究评估了一种多组分、协同质量改进(C-QIP)策略在印度心血管疾病门诊患者中的可行性和初步效果。方法和研究结果:我们在印度公立和私立医院的缺血性心脏病、缺血性中风或心力衰竭患者中进行了一项实用的可行性随机对照试验。参与者被单独随机分配到C-QIP策略(电子决策支持系统,提供者的eDSS,与非医生卫生工作者的任务共享,患者教育,短信提醒和审计反馈)或常规护理。主要结果是实施措施:可行性,保真度,采用,从提供者和患者的角度可接受性。次要结局包括指南导向药物治疗(GDMT)的处方、对处方治疗的依从性、护理过程和心血管疾病危险因素。410名参与者入组(干预组206名,常规护理组204名),平均年龄为57.5岁,73.0%为男性。冠心病病史占74.6%,缺血性中风18.5%,心力衰竭18.0%。在试验结束时(平均随访18个月),实施结果很好:研究结束时C-QIP组的保留率为192/206(93.2%),常规护理组的保留率为187/204 (91.7%);干预的保真度仍然很高,例如,187/198(94.4%)患者在研究结束时接受了生活方式建议。临床医生对eDSS提示的接受度很高,对DSS提示的接受度因提示类型而异,患者和提供者在试验结束时都报告了很高的接受度。研究结束时,与常规护理组相比,C-QIP组的GDMT使用显著改善:缺血性心脏病患者使用抗血小板+他汀类药物+ ACEi/ARB + β受体阻滞剂的比例为58.3%对32.4%,RR=1.45 (95%CI: 1.18-1.78);缺血性卒中患者使用抗血小板+他汀类药物+ ACEi/ARB或利尿剂的比例为76.7% vs 31.8%, RR=2.41 (95%CI: 1.52-3.81)。心衰患者GDMT组间无差异(如ACEi/ARB /ARNI + β受体阻滞剂+ MRA, 48.9% vs 48.6%, RR=1.26, 95%CI: 0.82-1.94)。与常规护理组相比,C-QIP组患者对处方治疗的依从性改善:药物治疗组90.9%对82.3%,RR 1.08 (1.04-1.12);饮食计划91.9% vs 82.3%, RR 1.07 (1.02-1.13);体力活动91.4% vs 70.4%, RR=1.23 (95%CI: 1.16-1.30)。与常规护理组相比,C-QIP组的护理流程得到了显著改善,包括更结构化的提醒(例如,错过预约后的电话通知率为70.7% vs 4.4%)。结论:C-QIP试验表明,在印度,多组分策略是可行的、可接受的,并且改善了慢性心血管疾病的护理流程。未来需要大规模的验证性混合试验来确定这种质量改进策略是否可以降低心血管发病率和死亡率。临床试验注册:Clinicaltrials.gov编号:NCT05196659印度临床试验注册:CTRI/2022/04/041847。
{"title":"A Randomized Feasibility Trial of a Multicomponent Quality Improvement Strategy for Chronic Care of Cardiovascular Diseases: Findings from the C-QIP Trial in India.","authors":"Kavita Singh, Ambuj Roy, Dimple Kondal, Kalyani Nikhare, Mareesha Gandral, Satish G Patil, Kiran Aithal, M P Girish, Mohit Gupta, Kushal Madan, Jps Sawhney, Kamar Ali, Meetushi Jain, Savitesh Kushwaha, Devraj Jindal, Emily Mendenhall, Shivani A Patel, K M Venkat Narayan, Nikhil Tandon, Mark D Huffman, Dorairaj Prabhakaran","doi":"10.64898/2026.01.28.26345028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.01.28.26345028","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Chronic cardiovascular diseases (CVD) care quality remains suboptimal, globally. This study evaluated the feasibility and preliminary effect of a multicomponent, collaborative quality improvement (C-QIP) strategy among patients with CVD attending outpatient clinics in India.</p><p><strong>Methods and findings: </strong>We conducted a pragmatic feasibility randomized controlled trial in patients with ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke or heart failure across public and private hospitals in India. Participants were individually randomized to C-QIP strategy (electronic decision support system, eDSS for providers, task-sharing with non-physician health workers, patient education, and SMS text reminders, and audit-feedback) or usual care. The primary outcomes were implementation measures: feasibility, fidelity, adoption, and acceptability from provider's and patient's perspectives. Secondary outcomes included prescription of guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT), adherence to prescribed therapy, processes of care, and CVD risk factors. Of 410 participants enrolled (intervention arm=206 and usual care arm=204), mean age was 57.5 years, and 73.0% were male. Prior history of coronary heart disease was 74.6%, ischemic stroke: 18.5%, and heart failure: 18.0%. At trial end (mean follow-up 18 months), implementation outcomes were strong: retention at end-of-study was 192/206 (93.2%) in C-QIP and 187/204 (91.7%) in usual care arm; fidelity of the intervention remained high, e.g., 187/198 (94.4%) patients received lifestyle advice at end-of-study. Clinician adoption of eDSS prompts was high, and acceptance of DSS prompts varied by type of prompts, and both patients and providers reported high acceptability at trial end. GDMT use improved significantly in C-QIP vs usual care arm at end-of-study: in patients with ischemic heart disease use of antiplatelet + statin + ACEi/ARB + beta-blocker was 58.3% vs 32.4%, RR=1.45 (95%CI: 1.18-1.78); and among patients with ischemic stroke use of antiplatelet + statin + ACEi/ARB or diuretic was 76.7% vs 31.8%, RR=2.41 (95%CI: 1.52-3.81). GDMT among patients with heart failure were not different between groups (e.g., ACEi/ARB /ARNI + beta-blocker + MRA, 48.9% vs 48.6%, RR=1.26, 95%CI: 0.82-1.94). Patient adherence to prescribed therapy improved in C-QIP vs usual care arm: medications 90.9% vs 82.3%, RR 1.08 (1.04-1.12); diet plan 91.9% vs 82.3%, RR 1.07 (1.02-1.13); and physical activity 91.4% vs 70.4%, RR=1.23 (95%CI: 1.16-1.30). Processes of care improved significantly in C-QIP vs usual care arm, including more structured reminders (e.g., call after missed appointment 70.7% vs 4.4%, p<0.001) and longer clinician contact time (median 10 vs 7 minutes, p<0.001). CVD risk factors showed small, non-significant trends (e.g., modest diastolic BP reduction) for between-group differences in blood pressure, lipids and glycemia.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The C-QIP trial demonstrated th","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12870608/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146128324","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-30DOI: 10.64898/2026.01.27.26344979
Marliette R Matos, Samuel Ghatan, Sean Bankier, Taylor V Thompson, Kassidy Lundy-Perez, Masako Suzuki, Reanna Doña-Termine, Jacob Stauber, David Reynolds, Kathleen Rosales, Anthony Griffen, Mariko Isshiki, Danny Simpson, Nathanael Andrews, Omar Ahmed, Samantha Gold, Sophia R Ostrowiak, Srilakshmi Raj, Sofiya Milman, Tuuli Lappalainen, John M Greally
Functional interpretation is essential for understanding how genetic variants contribute to complex traits. Here, we identified and characterized regulatory variants in CD4+ T cells collected from 362 donors. We integrated molecular QTL mapping from single-cell RNA-seq profiles and chromatin accessibility with predicted variant effects from a deep learning model trained on chromatin accessibility data. We identified molecular features and transcription factor binding mechanisms underlying variant sharing and mediated effects across the modalities and approaches. While predicted variant effects correlated with molQTLs, only a small fraction of empirically detected molQTLs were discovered by predictive models. MolQTLs, primarily those affecting chromatin, indicated potential molecular drivers for 33% of immune-related GWAS loci, with the deep learning approach providing insights into 4.7% of GWAS loci. These results highlight the value of multi-omic data and systematic integration of empirical and predictive approaches to interpret regulatory effects of genetic variants.
{"title":"Integrating multi-omic QTLs and predictive models reveals regulatory architectures at immune related GWAS loci in CD4+ T cells.","authors":"Marliette R Matos, Samuel Ghatan, Sean Bankier, Taylor V Thompson, Kassidy Lundy-Perez, Masako Suzuki, Reanna Doña-Termine, Jacob Stauber, David Reynolds, Kathleen Rosales, Anthony Griffen, Mariko Isshiki, Danny Simpson, Nathanael Andrews, Omar Ahmed, Samantha Gold, Sophia R Ostrowiak, Srilakshmi Raj, Sofiya Milman, Tuuli Lappalainen, John M Greally","doi":"10.64898/2026.01.27.26344979","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.01.27.26344979","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Functional interpretation is essential for understanding how genetic variants contribute to complex traits. Here, we identified and characterized regulatory variants in CD4+ T cells collected from 362 donors. We integrated molecular QTL mapping from single-cell RNA-seq profiles and chromatin accessibility with predicted variant effects from a deep learning model trained on chromatin accessibility data. We identified molecular features and transcription factor binding mechanisms underlying variant sharing and mediated effects across the modalities and approaches. While predicted variant effects correlated with molQTLs, only a small fraction of empirically detected molQTLs were discovered by predictive models. MolQTLs, primarily those affecting chromatin, indicated potential molecular drivers for 33% of immune-related GWAS loci, with the deep learning approach providing insights into 4.7% of GWAS loci. These results highlight the value of multi-omic data and systematic integration of empirical and predictive approaches to interpret regulatory effects of genetic variants.</p>","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12870616/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146128218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-30DOI: 10.64898/2026.01.27.26344928
Cheryl Y S Foo, Catherine J Leonard, Merranda M McLaughlin, Kelsey A Johnson, Dost Öngür, Kim T Mueser, Corinne Cather
Background: Poor patient retention and family engagement compromise the effectiveness of coordinated specialty care (CSC) for first-episode psychosis (FEP). This mixed methods study aimed to identify program-level characteristics (CSC fidelity and engagement strategies) associated with patient retention and family engagement in Massachusetts CSC programs.
Methods: Primary outcomes were rates of patient retention and family engagement (≥1 evidence-based family intervention session), based on CSC program census (October 2022 - September 2023). Quantitative analyses explored program characteristics (EPINET Program-Level Core Assessment Battery) and fidelity ratings (Massachusetts Psychosis Fidelity Scale) as predictors using t-tests or univariate linear regressions. Thematic analysis of program interviews compared patient and family engagement strategies employed by high versus low performing programs.
Results: Across nine programs, mean patient retention was 86% (range: 58-97%) and family engagement was 40% (range: 12-100%). Higher fidelity to evidence-based services (e.g., individual therapy, family intervention, and supported education/employment) was significantly associated with both outcomes (p<.05; R 2 range: .51-.72). Mixed-methods analysis showed that high performing programs used case management-related supports to meet service users' practical needs. Factors associated with higher patient retention included having comprehensive intake assessments, provider visits during hospitalization, and periodic treatment reviews. Programs that conducted benefits counseling and proactively recommended family services as standard care had higher family engagement.
Conclusions: Higher fidelity CSC programs had better patient retention and family engagement. Case management-related supports addressed treatment barriers. Strategies designed to strengthen therapeutic alliance and goal alignment may promote patient engagement, while family engagement may benefit from proactive recommendation of family intervention.
{"title":"A Mixed Methods Study of Program-Level Factors Influencing Patient and Family Engagement in First Episode Psychosis Coordinated Specialty Care.","authors":"Cheryl Y S Foo, Catherine J Leonard, Merranda M McLaughlin, Kelsey A Johnson, Dost Öngür, Kim T Mueser, Corinne Cather","doi":"10.64898/2026.01.27.26344928","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.01.27.26344928","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Poor patient retention and family engagement compromise the effectiveness of coordinated specialty care (CSC) for first-episode psychosis (FEP). This mixed methods study aimed to identify program-level characteristics (CSC fidelity and engagement strategies) associated with patient retention and family engagement in Massachusetts CSC programs.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Primary outcomes were rates of patient retention and family engagement (≥1 evidence-based family intervention session), based on CSC program census (October 2022 - September 2023). Quantitative analyses explored program characteristics (EPINET Program-Level Core Assessment Battery) and fidelity ratings (Massachusetts Psychosis Fidelity Scale) as predictors using t-tests or univariate linear regressions. Thematic analysis of program interviews compared patient and family engagement strategies employed by high versus low performing programs.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Across nine programs, mean patient retention was 86% (range: 58-97%) and family engagement was 40% (range: 12-100%). Higher fidelity to evidence-based services (e.g., individual therapy, family intervention, and supported education/employment) was significantly associated with both outcomes (p<.05; R <b><sup>2</sup></b> range: .51-.72). Mixed-methods analysis showed that high performing programs used case management-related supports to meet service users' practical needs. Factors associated with higher patient retention included having comprehensive intake assessments, provider visits during hospitalization, and periodic treatment reviews. Programs that conducted benefits counseling and proactively recommended family services as standard care had higher family engagement.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Higher fidelity CSC programs had better patient retention and family engagement. Case management-related supports addressed treatment barriers. Strategies designed to strengthen therapeutic alliance and goal alignment may promote patient engagement, while family engagement may benefit from proactive recommendation of family intervention.</p>","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12870706/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146128258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-30DOI: 10.64898/2026.01.29.26345147
Lindsay C Hanford, Marziye Eshghi, Jingnan Du, Randy L Buckner, Ross W Mair, Tian Ge, Meher R Juttukonda, David H Salat
The effect of biological aging on brain structure is widespread and apparent. However, little is understood regarding which regions exhibit similarities in vulnerability, and what biological processes drive regional patterns of senescence-associated atrophy. Here, we investigated whether associations between age and brain structure exhibit distinct patterns of regional vulnerability, and if so, whether they are related to patterns of cerebral physiology which also show age-related decline. Using both data-driven and hypothesis-driven approaches, we identified recurring patterns of accelerated and delayed decline across the lifespan. Notably, the results mapped using unsupervised clustering methods mirrored the organization of major arterial flow territories, suggesting that vascular architecture may serve as a key organizing principle in brain aging. These results provide support for future research on aging and neurodegenerative disorders that aim to link patterns of structural deterioration to physiological processes that may be useful for identifying 'at risk' individuals and developing novel therapeutics.
{"title":"Age-Associated Structural Decline is Linked to Arterial Flow Territories in the Brain: Insights from Lifespan Human Connectome Project in Aging.","authors":"Lindsay C Hanford, Marziye Eshghi, Jingnan Du, Randy L Buckner, Ross W Mair, Tian Ge, Meher R Juttukonda, David H Salat","doi":"10.64898/2026.01.29.26345147","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.01.29.26345147","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The effect of biological aging on brain structure is widespread and apparent. However, little is understood regarding which regions exhibit similarities in vulnerability, and what biological processes drive regional patterns of senescence-associated atrophy. Here, we investigated whether associations between age and brain structure exhibit distinct patterns of regional vulnerability, and if so, whether they are related to patterns of cerebral physiology which also show age-related decline. Using both data-driven and hypothesis-driven approaches, we identified recurring patterns of <i>accelerated</i> and <i>delayed</i> decline across the lifespan. Notably, the results mapped using unsupervised clustering methods mirrored the organization of major arterial flow territories, suggesting that vascular architecture may serve as a key organizing principle in brain aging. These results provide support for future research on aging and neurodegenerative disorders that aim to link patterns of structural deterioration to physiological processes that may be useful for identifying 'at risk' individuals and developing novel therapeutics.</p>","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12870554/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146128279","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-30DOI: 10.64898/2026.01.28.26344858
Alec K Peltekian, Wan-Ting Liao, Vijeeth Guggilla, Nikolay Markov, Karolina Senkow, Zewei Liao, Marjorie Kang, Luke Rasmussen, Elsa Tavernier, Stephan Ehrmann, Rebecca K Clepp, Thomas Stoeger, Theresa Walunas, Alok Choudhary, Alexander V Misharin, Benjamin D Singer, Gr Scott Budinger, Richard G Wunderink, Catherine A Gao, Ankit Agrawal
Purpose: Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) remains one of the most serious hospital-acquired infections in the intensive care unit (ICU), with high morbidity and mortality. Early identification of patients at risk for developing VAP could enable timely diagnostics and intervention. However, current clinical tools are limited in their ability to detect early physiologic signals preceding VAP onset. We aimed to build supervised machine learning models to predict short term onset of VAP.
Methods: We analyzed electronic health record data from a prospective observational cohort of ICU patients, where VAP was adjudicated using a standardized published protocol by a panel of critical care physicians. Clinical features (including vital signs, ventilator settings, laboratory values, and support devices) were extracted for each patient-ICU-day. We explored unsupervised clustering to characterize feature dynamics associated with VAP onset. We built multiple machine learning models across different prediction windows (3, 5, 7 days before VAP). We examined model performance in two external cohorts, MIMIC-IV and secondary analysis of the AMIKINHAL trial. Results were evaluated with discrimination metrics such as AUROC.
Results: The internal cohort included 507 patients with BAL-confirmed diagnoses: 261 developed VAP and 246 did not have VAP. Visualization using clustering identified distinct physiologic states enriched for VAP-labeled days. The best-performing model achieved an AUROC of 0.866 in predicting VAP up to seven days before clinical diagnosis. Temporal model probability trajectories showed rising model confidence in the days leading up to VAP. On external validation in MIMIC-IV, the best model achieved an AUROC of 0.817 for forecasting VAP within five days. There was low feature overlap with the AMIKINHAL trial data, leading to poor model performance. Feature analysis revealed that platelet count, positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP), ventilator duration, and inflammatory markers were key drivers of model predictions.
Conclusions: Machine learning models trained on routinely collected ICU data with careful labeling can anticipate VAP onset up to a week in advance with strong predictive performance. Model performance generalized to data from an entirely different hospital system despite differences in practice and labeling patterns, but did not perform well when there was poor feature overlap. Future work should focus on real-time prospective evaluation.
{"title":"Developing and externally validating machine learning models to forecast short-term risk of ventilator-associated pneumonia.","authors":"Alec K Peltekian, Wan-Ting Liao, Vijeeth Guggilla, Nikolay Markov, Karolina Senkow, Zewei Liao, Marjorie Kang, Luke Rasmussen, Elsa Tavernier, Stephan Ehrmann, Rebecca K Clepp, Thomas Stoeger, Theresa Walunas, Alok Choudhary, Alexander V Misharin, Benjamin D Singer, Gr Scott Budinger, Richard G Wunderink, Catherine A Gao, Ankit Agrawal","doi":"10.64898/2026.01.28.26344858","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.01.28.26344858","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Purpose: </strong>Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) remains one of the most serious hospital-acquired infections in the intensive care unit (ICU), with high morbidity and mortality. Early identification of patients at risk for developing VAP could enable timely diagnostics and intervention. However, current clinical tools are limited in their ability to detect early physiologic signals preceding VAP onset. We aimed to build supervised machine learning models to predict short term onset of VAP.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We analyzed electronic health record data from a prospective observational cohort of ICU patients, where VAP was adjudicated using a standardized published protocol by a panel of critical care physicians. Clinical features (including vital signs, ventilator settings, laboratory values, and support devices) were extracted for each patient-ICU-day. We explored unsupervised clustering to characterize feature dynamics associated with VAP onset. We built multiple machine learning models across different prediction windows (3, 5, 7 days before VAP). We examined model performance in two external cohorts, MIMIC-IV and secondary analysis of the AMIKINHAL trial. Results were evaluated with discrimination metrics such as AUROC.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The internal cohort included 507 patients with BAL-confirmed diagnoses: 261 developed VAP and 246 did not have VAP. Visualization using clustering identified distinct physiologic states enriched for VAP-labeled days. The best-performing model achieved an AUROC of 0.866 in predicting VAP up to seven days before clinical diagnosis. Temporal model probability trajectories showed rising model confidence in the days leading up to VAP. On external validation in MIMIC-IV, the best model achieved an AUROC of 0.817 for forecasting VAP within five days. There was low feature overlap with the AMIKINHAL trial data, leading to poor model performance. Feature analysis revealed that platelet count, positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP), ventilator duration, and inflammatory markers were key drivers of model predictions.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Machine learning models trained on routinely collected ICU data with careful labeling can anticipate VAP onset up to a week in advance with strong predictive performance. Model performance generalized to data from an entirely different hospital system despite differences in practice and labeling patterns, but did not perform well when there was poor feature overlap. Future work should focus on real-time prospective evaluation.</p>","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12870606/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146128337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}