Pub Date : 2026-03-06DOI: 10.64898/2026.03.05.26347711
Alejandro Leyva, Abdul Rehman Akbar, Muhammad Khalid Khan Niazi
Molecular subtyping of cancer is traditionally defined in transcriptomic space, yet routine clinical deployment is limited by the availability and cost of sequencing. Meanwhile, histopathology captures rich morphological information that is known to correlate with molecular state but lacks a principled, mechanistic bridge to gene-level representations. We propose a graph-constrained learning framework that aligns morphology-derived signals with a fixed, data-driven gene network discovered via hierarchical Monte Carlo screening. We can derive new gene sets for classification using random sampling, and use the coexpression network of that graph to enforce the learning of a pure morphology model without using gene expression. The resulting model performs subtype prediction using morphology alone, while being explicitly forced to operate through a gene-structured latent space. Structural alignment is enforced during training. For Moffitt classification in pancreatic cancer using PANCAN and TCGA datasets, the model has a reported 85% AUC using an alternative gene set's network structure, while the alternate gene set itself has an 84% AUC in all patients that were classified with subtyping with pancreatic cancer in the dataset. This framework demonstrates that virtual transcriptomics can provide biologically grounded molecular insights using only routine histopathology slides, potentially expanding access to precision oncology in resource-limited settings.
{"title":"Gene-Morphology Alignment via Graph-Constrained Latent Modeling for Molecular Subtype Prediction from Histopathology in Pancreatic Cancer.","authors":"Alejandro Leyva, Abdul Rehman Akbar, Muhammad Khalid Khan Niazi","doi":"10.64898/2026.03.05.26347711","DOIUrl":"10.64898/2026.03.05.26347711","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Molecular subtyping of cancer is traditionally defined in transcriptomic space, yet routine clinical deployment is limited by the availability and cost of sequencing. Meanwhile, histopathology captures rich morphological information that is known to correlate with molecular state but lacks a principled, mechanistic bridge to gene-level representations. We propose a graph-constrained learning framework that aligns morphology-derived signals with a fixed, data-driven gene network discovered via hierarchical Monte Carlo screening. We can derive new gene sets for classification using random sampling, and use the coexpression network of that graph to enforce the learning of a pure morphology model without using gene expression. The resulting model performs subtype prediction using morphology alone, while being explicitly forced to operate through a gene-structured latent space. Structural alignment is enforced during training. For Moffitt classification in pancreatic cancer using PANCAN and TCGA datasets, the model has a reported 85% AUC using an alternative gene set's network structure, while the alternate gene set itself has an 84% AUC in all patients that were classified with subtyping with pancreatic cancer in the dataset. This framework demonstrates that virtual transcriptomics can provide biologically grounded molecular insights using only routine histopathology slides, potentially expanding access to precision oncology in resource-limited settings.</p>","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12976898/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147446454","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-06DOI: 10.64898/2026.03.05.26347746
Olga Kondrashova, Rebecca L Johnston, Michael T Parsons, Aimee L Davidson, Daffodil M Canson, Khoa A Tran, Melissa S Cline, Nicola Waddell, Smruthy Sivakumar, Ethan S Sokol, Dexter X Jin, Dean C Pavlick, Brennan Decker, Garrett M Frampton, Amanda B Spurdle, Michael T Parsons, Amanda B Spurdle
Accurate classification of BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants is essential for cancer risk assessment and therapy selection, yet over one-third remain variants of uncertain significance (VUS). Here, using 120,660 real-world cancer genomic profiles with BRCA1 or BRCA2 variants from a >800,000-sample cohort, we develop machine learning models that predict pathogenicity using clinical and tumor-derived features, including a pan-cancer homologous recombination deficiency signature, co-mutated genes, zygosity, and cancer type. Trained on classified variants from ClinVar, our models achieved near-perfect performance, with validation ROC-AUC of 1.000 for BRCA1 and 0.989 for BRCA2 variants with ≥5 observations, translating to strong benign or pathogenic evidence for VCEP classification. Applying these models to 1,073 BRCA1 and 1,639 BRCA2 VUS, we strengthened or enabled classification of 39.48% BRCA1 and 50.52% BRCA2 assessable variants. This approach transforms underutilized tumor profiling data into evidence that can be directly integrated into variant classification, providing a scalable framework for other tumor profiling datasets and cancer genes associated with defined tumor genomic features.
{"title":"Cancer genomic profiling predicts pathogenicity of BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants.","authors":"Olga Kondrashova, Rebecca L Johnston, Michael T Parsons, Aimee L Davidson, Daffodil M Canson, Khoa A Tran, Melissa S Cline, Nicola Waddell, Smruthy Sivakumar, Ethan S Sokol, Dexter X Jin, Dean C Pavlick, Brennan Decker, Garrett M Frampton, Amanda B Spurdle, Michael T Parsons, Amanda B Spurdle","doi":"10.64898/2026.03.05.26347746","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.03.05.26347746","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Accurate classification of BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants is essential for cancer risk assessment and therapy selection, yet over one-third remain variants of uncertain significance (VUS). Here, using 120,660 real-world cancer genomic profiles with BRCA1 or BRCA2 variants from a >800,000-sample cohort, we develop machine learning models that predict pathogenicity using clinical and tumor-derived features, including a pan-cancer homologous recombination deficiency signature, co-mutated genes, zygosity, and cancer type. Trained on classified variants from ClinVar, our models achieved near-perfect performance, with validation ROC-AUC of 1.000 for BRCA1 and 0.989 for BRCA2 variants with ≥5 observations, translating to strong benign or pathogenic evidence for VCEP classification. Applying these models to 1,073 BRCA1 and 1,639 BRCA2 VUS, we strengthened or enabled classification of 39.48% BRCA1 and 50.52% BRCA2 assessable variants. This approach transforms underutilized tumor profiling data into evidence that can be directly integrated into variant classification, providing a scalable framework for other tumor profiling datasets and cancer genes associated with defined tumor genomic features.</p>","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13004087/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147501138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-06DOI: 10.64898/2026.03.05.26347744
Adriane M Soehner, Nicholas Kissel, Brant P Hasler, Peter L Franzen, Jessica C Levenson, Duncan B Clark, Daniel J Buysse, Meredith L Wallace
Actigraphy is a popular behavioral sleep assessment tool in research and clinical practice. Hierarchical hand-scoring approaches remain the standard for actigraphy rest interval estimation, but can be impractical for large cohort studies and suffer from reproducibility problems. We developed a semi-automated pipeline (actiSleep) to set rest intervals consistent with best-practice hand-scoring algorithms incorporating event marker, diary, light, and activity data. To evaluate actiSleep performance, we used data from an observational study of 51 adolescents (14-19yr), with and without family history of bipolar disorder. Participants completed 2 weeks of wrist actigraphy and daily sleep diary. We first hand-scored records using a standardized hierarchical algorithm incorporating event marker, diary, light, and activity data. We then compared the hand-scored rest intervals to those from actiSleep and two automated activity-based algorithms ('Activity-Merged', 'Activity-Only'). Activity-Only used activity-based sleep estimation and Activity-Merged joined closely adjacent rest intervals. For rest onset, rest offset, and rest duration, all algorithms had strong mean agreement with hand-scoring: actiSleep estimates were within 1-3 minutes, Activity-Merged within 2-4 minutes, and Activity-Only within 7-14 minutes. However, actiSleep had notably better (narrower) margins of agreement with hand-scoring, as evidenced by Bland-Altman plots, and greater positive predictive value and true positive rates for rest detection, especially in the 60 minutes surrounding the onset and offset of the rest interval. The actiSleep algorithm successfully estimates actigraphy rest intervals comparable to hand-scoring while avoiding pitfalls of activity-only algorithms. actiSleep has potential to replace hand-scoring for research in adolescents but requires further testing and validation in other samples.
{"title":"Performance of a Semi-Automated Hierarchical Rest Interval Detection Pipeline (actiSleep) for Wrist Actigraphy in Adolescents.","authors":"Adriane M Soehner, Nicholas Kissel, Brant P Hasler, Peter L Franzen, Jessica C Levenson, Duncan B Clark, Daniel J Buysse, Meredith L Wallace","doi":"10.64898/2026.03.05.26347744","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.03.05.26347744","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Actigraphy is a popular behavioral sleep assessment tool in research and clinical practice. Hierarchical hand-scoring approaches remain the standard for actigraphy rest interval estimation, but can be impractical for large cohort studies and suffer from reproducibility problems. We developed a semi-automated pipeline (actiSleep) to set rest intervals consistent with best-practice hand-scoring algorithms incorporating event marker, diary, light, and activity data. To evaluate actiSleep performance, we used data from an observational study of 51 adolescents (14-19yr), with and without family history of bipolar disorder. Participants completed 2 weeks of wrist actigraphy and daily sleep diary. We first hand-scored records using a standardized hierarchical algorithm incorporating event marker, diary, light, and activity data. We then compared the hand-scored rest intervals to those from actiSleep and two automated activity-based algorithms ('Activity-Merged', 'Activity-Only'). Activity-Only used activity-based sleep estimation and Activity-Merged joined closely adjacent rest intervals. For rest onset, rest offset, and rest duration, all algorithms had strong mean agreement with hand-scoring: actiSleep estimates were within 1-3 minutes, Activity-Merged within 2-4 minutes, and Activity-Only within 7-14 minutes. However, actiSleep had notably better (narrower) margins of agreement with hand-scoring, as evidenced by Bland-Altman plots, and greater positive predictive value and true positive rates for rest detection, especially in the 60 minutes surrounding the onset and offset of the rest interval. The actiSleep algorithm successfully estimates actigraphy rest intervals comparable to hand-scoring while avoiding pitfalls of activity-only algorithms. actiSleep has potential to replace hand-scoring for research in adolescents but requires further testing and validation in other samples.</p>","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13004136/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147501179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-06DOI: 10.64898/2026.03.05.26347729
Lauren E Bahr, Joseph Lu, Darunee Buddhari, Taweewun Hunsawong, Erica Rapheal, Peter Greco, Lisa Ware, Michelle Klick, Aaron Farmer, Frank Middleton, Stephen J Thomas, Kathryn Anderson, Adam T Waickman
Serological surveillance is fundamental to infectious disease research and informed public-health decision making. Immunoassays used in the study of pathogen-specific immunity have historically relied on the collection of venous blood. While critical for many public-health applications, this sample collection method is invasive and resource intensive. The costs and logistical barriers associated with venous blood collection are exacerbated in resource-limited regions, and the shift to less invasive sampling methods would increase sample availability for pathogen surveillance and study of pathogen-specific immunity. To this end, we have developed and optimized a self-collected, saliva-based immunoassay capable of quantifying pathogen-specific antibody binding in saliva samples. Using samples collected from geographically and epidemiologically diverse regions of the world, we compared antigen-specific IgG levels in paired plasma and saliva samples. We observed that levels of IgG against multiple pathogens of public health concern - including SARS-CoV-2 and dengue virus (DENV) - were highly correlated in plasma and swab-collected saliva. In addition, the decay of maternally derived antibodies in saliva samples collected from infants was readily observed using this immunoassay, demonstrating the assay's sensitivity and potential for use in measuring antibody kinetics. We posit that this assay represents a climate stable, non-invasive tool that can aid in the surveillance and study of pathogen-specific immunity across a broad range of public-health indications.
{"title":"Development and optimization of self-collected, field stable, saliva-based immunoassays for scalable epidemiological surveillance of pathogen-specific immunity.","authors":"Lauren E Bahr, Joseph Lu, Darunee Buddhari, Taweewun Hunsawong, Erica Rapheal, Peter Greco, Lisa Ware, Michelle Klick, Aaron Farmer, Frank Middleton, Stephen J Thomas, Kathryn Anderson, Adam T Waickman","doi":"10.64898/2026.03.05.26347729","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.03.05.26347729","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Serological surveillance is fundamental to infectious disease research and informed public-health decision making. Immunoassays used in the study of pathogen-specific immunity have historically relied on the collection of venous blood. While critical for many public-health applications, this sample collection method is invasive and resource intensive. The costs and logistical barriers associated with venous blood collection are exacerbated in resource-limited regions, and the shift to less invasive sampling methods would increase sample availability for pathogen surveillance and study of pathogen-specific immunity. To this end, we have developed and optimized a self-collected, saliva-based immunoassay capable of quantifying pathogen-specific antibody binding in saliva samples. Using samples collected from geographically and epidemiologically diverse regions of the world, we compared antigen-specific IgG levels in paired plasma and saliva samples. We observed that levels of IgG against multiple pathogens of public health concern - including SARS-CoV-2 and dengue virus (DENV) - were highly correlated in plasma and swab-collected saliva. In addition, the decay of maternally derived antibodies in saliva samples collected from infants was readily observed using this immunoassay, demonstrating the assay's sensitivity and potential for use in measuring antibody kinetics. We posit that this assay represents a climate stable, non-invasive tool that can aid in the surveillance and study of pathogen-specific immunity across a broad range of public-health indications.</p>","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13001388/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147501277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-06DOI: 10.64898/2026.03.05.26347522
Robin Fallegger, Sergio A Gomez-Ochoa, Charlotte Boys, Ricardo Omar Ramirez Flores, Jovan Tanevski, Evanthia Pashos, Denis Feliers, Mary Piper, Jennifer A Schaub, Zixiang Zhou, Weiguang Mao, Xi Chen, Rachel S G Sealfon, Rajasree Menon, Viji Nair, Sean Eddy, Fadhl M Alakwaa, Laura Pyle, Ye Ji Choi, Petter Bjornstad, Charles E Alpers, Markus Bitzer, Andrew S Bomback, M Luiza Caramori, Dawit Demeke, Agnes B Fogo, Leal C Herlitz, Krzysztof Kiryluk, James P Lash, Raghavan Murugan, John F O'Toole, Paul M Palevsky, Chirag R Parikh, Sylvia E Rosas, Avi Z Rosenberg, John R Sedor, Miguel A Vazquez, Sushrut S Waikar, F Perry Wilson, Jeffrey B Hodgin, Laura Barisoni, Jonathan Himmelfarb, Sanjay Jain, Wenjun Ju, Olga G Troyanskaya, Matthias Kretzler, Michael T Eadon, Julio Saez-Rodriguez
Acute kidney injury (AKI) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) are two interconnected clinical conditions, both defined by degree of functional impairment, but with heterogeneous clinical trajectories. Using new transcriptomic technologies, recent studies have described the cellular diversity in the healthy and injured kidney at the single cell level. Here, we used single nucleus transcriptomics to investigate the molecular diversity and commonalities in kidney biopsies from over 150 participants with AKI and CKD enrolled within the Kidney Precision Medicine Project (KPMP) and did so at the patient participant level. Using an unsupervised approach, we identified two multi-cellular programs associated with clinical and histopathological features of acute injury and chronic damage, respectively. We found that these programs are expressed across patients with AKI and CKD, supporting shared, rather than distinct, underlying molecular mechanisms. These programs capture tissue-level compositional changes towards adaptive and failed-repair states in tubular epithelial cells, as well as intra-cellular molecular changes characteristic of stress in all cell types. We identified subunits of the NFkB and AP-1 complexes, as well as members of the STAT family, as putative upstream regulators of the acute and chronic programs. We were able to map these continuous molecular measures of acute injury and chronic damage to urine and plasma protein profiles obtained at time of biopsy. These non-invasive protein signatures were predictive of renal outcomes in an independent cohort of 44 thousand participants from the UK biobank. In summary, unbiased identification of cellular programs in kidney disease biopsies defined molecular programs of injury cutting across conventional disease categorization and established a non-invasive molecular link to long term patient outcomes.
{"title":"Shared multicellular injury programs of acute and chronic kidney disease enable mechanistic patient stratification.","authors":"Robin Fallegger, Sergio A Gomez-Ochoa, Charlotte Boys, Ricardo Omar Ramirez Flores, Jovan Tanevski, Evanthia Pashos, Denis Feliers, Mary Piper, Jennifer A Schaub, Zixiang Zhou, Weiguang Mao, Xi Chen, Rachel S G Sealfon, Rajasree Menon, Viji Nair, Sean Eddy, Fadhl M Alakwaa, Laura Pyle, Ye Ji Choi, Petter Bjornstad, Charles E Alpers, Markus Bitzer, Andrew S Bomback, M Luiza Caramori, Dawit Demeke, Agnes B Fogo, Leal C Herlitz, Krzysztof Kiryluk, James P Lash, Raghavan Murugan, John F O'Toole, Paul M Palevsky, Chirag R Parikh, Sylvia E Rosas, Avi Z Rosenberg, John R Sedor, Miguel A Vazquez, Sushrut S Waikar, F Perry Wilson, Jeffrey B Hodgin, Laura Barisoni, Jonathan Himmelfarb, Sanjay Jain, Wenjun Ju, Olga G Troyanskaya, Matthias Kretzler, Michael T Eadon, Julio Saez-Rodriguez","doi":"10.64898/2026.03.05.26347522","DOIUrl":"10.64898/2026.03.05.26347522","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Acute kidney injury (AKI) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) are two interconnected clinical conditions, both defined by degree of functional impairment, but with heterogeneous clinical trajectories. Using new transcriptomic technologies, recent studies have described the cellular diversity in the healthy and injured kidney at the single cell level. Here, we used single nucleus transcriptomics to investigate the molecular diversity and commonalities in kidney biopsies from over 150 participants with AKI and CKD enrolled within the Kidney Precision Medicine Project (KPMP) and did so at the patient participant level. Using an unsupervised approach, we identified two multi-cellular programs associated with clinical and histopathological features of acute injury and chronic damage, respectively. We found that these programs are expressed across patients with AKI and CKD, supporting shared, rather than distinct, underlying molecular mechanisms. These programs capture tissue-level compositional changes towards adaptive and failed-repair states in tubular epithelial cells, as well as intra-cellular molecular changes characteristic of stress in all cell types. We identified subunits of the NFkB and AP-1 complexes, as well as members of the STAT family, as putative upstream regulators of the acute and chronic programs. We were able to map these continuous molecular measures of acute injury and chronic damage to urine and plasma protein profiles obtained at time of biopsy. These non-invasive protein signatures were predictive of renal outcomes in an independent cohort of 44 thousand participants from the UK biobank. In summary, unbiased identification of cellular programs in kidney disease biopsies defined molecular programs of injury cutting across conventional disease categorization and established a non-invasive molecular link to long term patient outcomes.</p>","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12976899/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147446459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-06DOI: 10.64898/2026.03.05.26347629
Alon Bartal, Hadas Allouche-Kam, Tal Elhasid Felsenstein, Elli C Dassopoulos, Mary Lee, Andrea G Edlow, Scott P Orr, Sharon Dekel
Objective: Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after a traumatic birth is a serious but overlooked maternal morbidity, affecting ∼20% of women following medically complicated deliveries. PTSD can undermine maternal caregiving. Rapid screening tools suited to busy obstetric settings are lacking. We developed and evaluated a brief screener, derived from the 20-item PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5), to identify PTSD related to childbirth.
Study design: We enrolled 107 women with traumatic childbirth. Participants completed the PCL-5 and the gold-standard clinician diagnostic interview for PTSD (CAPS-5); depression was measured with the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). Bootstrap resampling with LASSO regression identified PCL-5 items most associated with PTSD. Firth logistic regression models estimated diagnostic accuracy. Sensitivity, specificity, area under the ROC curve (AUC), and Youden's J statistic determined performance and optimal cut-off.
Results: A six-item version of the PCL-5 (PCL-5 R6), statistically derived from the full scale, showed excellent discrimination for PTSD compared with clinician evaluation (AUC = 0.95; 95% CI, 0.89-1.00). A cut-off score of 7 yielded high sensitivity (0.96) and good specificity (0.83), with an overall diagnostic efficiency of 0.86, detecting most PTSD cases while minimizing false positives. The PCL-5 R6 correlated moderately with the EPDS (rho = 0.53), showing that a depression screen alone cannot reliably detect PTSD.
Conclusions: A short, 6-item PCL-5 provides a valid, efficient tool for detecting childbirth PTSD. Its brevity and accuracy make it practical for integration into routine postpartum care, enabling timely mental health screening.
{"title":"A 6-Item Diagnostic Screener for Childbirth-Related PTSD.","authors":"Alon Bartal, Hadas Allouche-Kam, Tal Elhasid Felsenstein, Elli C Dassopoulos, Mary Lee, Andrea G Edlow, Scott P Orr, Sharon Dekel","doi":"10.64898/2026.03.05.26347629","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.03.05.26347629","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after a traumatic birth is a serious but overlooked maternal morbidity, affecting ∼20% of women following medically complicated deliveries. PTSD can undermine maternal caregiving. Rapid screening tools suited to busy obstetric settings are lacking. We developed and evaluated a brief screener, derived from the 20-item PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5), to identify PTSD related to childbirth.</p><p><strong>Study design: </strong>We enrolled 107 women with traumatic childbirth. Participants completed the PCL-5 and the gold-standard clinician diagnostic interview for PTSD (CAPS-5); depression was measured with the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). Bootstrap resampling with LASSO regression identified PCL-5 items most associated with PTSD. Firth logistic regression models estimated diagnostic accuracy. Sensitivity, specificity, area under the ROC curve (AUC), and Youden's J statistic determined performance and optimal cut-off.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A six-item version of the PCL-5 (PCL-5 R6), statistically derived from the full scale, showed excellent discrimination for PTSD compared with clinician evaluation (AUC = 0.95; 95% CI, 0.89-1.00). A cut-off score of 7 yielded high sensitivity (0.96) and good specificity (0.83), with an overall diagnostic efficiency of 0.86, detecting most PTSD cases while minimizing false positives. The PCL-5 R6 correlated moderately with the EPDS (rho = 0.53), showing that a depression screen alone cannot reliably detect PTSD.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>A short, 6-item PCL-5 provides a valid, efficient tool for detecting childbirth PTSD. Its brevity and accuracy make it practical for integration into routine postpartum care, enabling timely mental health screening.</p>","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13004097/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147501271","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-05DOI: 10.64898/2026.02.10.26345240
Yinjun Zhao, Karen Marder, Yuanjia Wang
Background: Cognitively unimpaired (CU) adults vary substantially in their risk of developing mild cognitive impairment (MCI), yet most subtyping approaches focus on downstream neurobiological or cognitive markers rather than upstream, modifiable risk factors. We aimed to identify clinically meaningful subgroups of CU adults defined by integrated comorbid, behavioral, and social risk profiles, and to evaluate heterogeneity in both incident MCI risk and cardiometabolic treatment effects.
Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study of 121,322 CU adults aged ≥50 years from the All of Us Research Program. Baseline comorbidities, lifestyle behaviors, and social determinants of health were jointly modeled using the Bayesian Mixed Integrative Data Subtyping framework, which integrates binary and continuous modalities via modality-specific likelihoods and shared latent constructs. Subtype-specific risk of incident MCI was assessed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for demographics and baseline medication use. A double/debiased machine learning interactive regression model with inverse probability of censoring weights to mitigate bias from informative censoring was implemented to estimate the average treatment effects of antihypertensive agents, Glucagon-Like Peptide (GLP) receptor agonists, and non-GLP antidiabetic medications on time to MCI.
Results: Four distinct subtypes were identified: I low-risk healthy aging, II behavioral/social vulnerability, III cardiometabolic-depressive multimorbidity, and IV mixed social-medical vulnerability profiles. Compared with Subtype I, Subtype III demonstrated the highest risk of incident MCI (HR: 3.69, 95% CI: 3.14-4.33), followed by Subtype IV and Subtype II. In treatment effect analyses, antihypertensive use was associated with a modest prolongation of MCI-free survival overall (time ratio:1.04, 95% CI: 1.03-1.06), with the largest benefit observed in Subtype III (time ratio: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.09-1.19). Non-GLP antidiabetic therapies were similarly associated with modest overall delay, with significant benefits in Subtypes I and III. GLP-class therapies were not associated with overall delay but showed a significant association in Subtype III.
Conclusions: Integrative subtyping based on comorbid, behavioral, and social risk factors reveals clinically meaningful heterogeneity in both cognitive risk and treatment response. Aligning dementia prevention strategies with dominant vulnerability pathways may enhance the effectiveness and equity of population-level precision prevention.
简介:认知未受损(CU)成人在发生轻度认知障碍(MCI)的风险方面表现出实质性的差异,然而大多数亚型方法强调神经生物学或认知特征,而不是可改变的风险因素。方法:我们在All of Us研究项目中对121322名年龄≥50岁的CU成年人采用了一种新的综合亚型方法。基线合并症、生活方式行为和健康的社会决定因素共同建模以确定亚型。使用Cox模型评估亚型特异性MCI风险,使用双/去偏机器学习模型评估药物效果。结果:确定了具有不同医疗,行为和社会脆弱性概况的四种亚型。心脏代谢抑郁亚型显示出最高的MCI风险和从心脏代谢药物中获益最大,而以行为或社会脆弱性为主的亚型显示出有限的获益。讨论:基于上游风险因素的综合亚型揭示了不同的认知风险和治疗反应,支持更有针对性和公平的痴呆症预防策略。背景研究:先前的研究表明,认知能力未受损的成年人患认知障碍的风险差异很大。大多数先前的亚型研究都集中在脑成像或认知测试结果上。相比之下,大型流行病学研究表明,医疗条件、健康行为、社会和环境因素在痴呆风险中起主要作用,但这些因素很少被纳入数据驱动的亚型方法中。在一个大型的、多样化的美国队列中,我们确定了不同亚型的认知未受损成人,这些亚型是由医学、行为和社会风险因素的不同组合定义的。这些亚型在发生轻度认知障碍的风险和对常用心脏代谢药物的反应方面存在很大差异。这种方法揭示了未被生物标志物或基于认知的亚型所捕获的风险模式。综合医疗、行为和社会风险因素可以改善认知能力下降高风险个体的早期识别,并有助于制定预防策略。未来的研究应该在其他人群中验证这些亚型,并检查它们如何随着时间的推移而进化并与生物标记相互作用。伦理批准和人群异质性的考虑:该研究由机构审查委员会(IRB)批准,并获得所有参与者的知情同意。所有涉及人类参与者的实验方案均经我们所有人研究计划的伦理委员会和伦理审查委员会批准。所有程序均按照各机构和国家研究委员会的道德标准以及1964年《赫尔辛基宣言》及其后来的修正案或类似的道德标准进行。为了解决认知衰老和痴呆风险的异质性,该研究明确纳入了反映年龄、性别、种族和民族、社会经济地位、合并症负担、生活方式行为和健康社会决定因素差异的多样化人群。我们没有假设一个统一的风险概况,而是应用了一个综合亚型框架来识别认知未受损成人中不同的脆弱性模式,并评估轻度认知障碍的亚型特异性风险和差异治疗反应性。该方法旨在捕捉疾病风险的现实异质性,并支持更公平和有针对性的痴呆症预防策略。
{"title":"Integrative Multimodal Subtyping, Risk of Incident Mild Cognitive Impairment, and Differential Cardiometabolic Treatment Effects: A Prospective Cohort Study in the All of Us Research Program.","authors":"Yinjun Zhao, Karen Marder, Yuanjia Wang","doi":"10.64898/2026.02.10.26345240","DOIUrl":"10.64898/2026.02.10.26345240","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Cognitively unimpaired (CU) adults vary substantially in their risk of developing mild cognitive impairment (MCI), yet most subtyping approaches focus on downstream neurobiological or cognitive markers rather than upstream, modifiable risk factors. We aimed to identify clinically meaningful subgroups of CU adults defined by integrated comorbid, behavioral, and social risk profiles, and to evaluate heterogeneity in both incident MCI risk and cardiometabolic treatment effects.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We conducted a prospective cohort study of 121,322 CU adults aged ≥50 years from the All of Us Research Program. Baseline comorbidities, lifestyle behaviors, and social determinants of health were jointly modeled using the Bayesian Mixed Integrative Data Subtyping framework, which integrates binary and continuous modalities via modality-specific likelihoods and shared latent constructs. Subtype-specific risk of incident MCI was assessed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for demographics and baseline medication use. A double/debiased machine learning interactive regression model with inverse probability of censoring weights to mitigate bias from informative censoring was implemented to estimate the average treatment effects of antihypertensive agents, Glucagon-Like Peptide (GLP) receptor agonists, and non-GLP antidiabetic medications on time to MCI.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Four distinct subtypes were identified: I low-risk healthy aging, II behavioral/social vulnerability, III cardiometabolic-depressive multimorbidity, and IV mixed social-medical vulnerability profiles. Compared with Subtype I, Subtype III demonstrated the highest risk of incident MCI (HR: 3.69, 95% CI: 3.14-4.33), followed by Subtype IV and Subtype II. In treatment effect analyses, antihypertensive use was associated with a modest prolongation of MCI-free survival overall (time ratio:1.04, 95% CI: 1.03-1.06), with the largest benefit observed in Subtype III (time ratio: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.09-1.19). Non-GLP antidiabetic therapies were similarly associated with modest overall delay, with significant benefits in Subtypes I and III. GLP-class therapies were not associated with overall delay but showed a significant association in Subtype III.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Integrative subtyping based on comorbid, behavioral, and social risk factors reveals clinically meaningful heterogeneity in both cognitive risk and treatment response. Aligning dementia prevention strategies with dominant vulnerability pathways may enhance the effectiveness and equity of population-level precision prevention.</p>","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12919159/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147273803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-05DOI: 10.64898/2026.03.04.26347613
Jan M Hughes-Austin, Lauren Claravall, Ronit Katz, Deborah M Kado, Alexandra K Schwartz, William T Kent, Paul Girard, Renata C Pereira, Isidro B Salusky, Joachim H Ix
Individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have higher rates of hip fracture and post-fracture mortality. Although they may develop age-related osteoporosis similar to those without CKD, they may also exhibit CKD-related metabolic bone disease (MBD), characterized by low, high, or mixed turnover at similar levels of bone mineral density (BMD). Because BMD does not provide information about turnover status, clinical decision-making is challenging. This study evaluated the associations between circulating bone-turnover biomarkers and static histomorphometry in patients undergoing hip-fracture surgery. In this cross-sectional study, we enrolled adults with and without CKD, defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≤60 ml/min/1.73m² (CKD-EPI 2021), undergoing hip-fracture surgery. Blood samples, bone specimens from the femoral head or greater trochanter, and demographic and clinical data were collected at the time of surgery. Plasma biomarkers included α-Klotho, bone alkaline phosphatase (BAP), dickkopf-related protein 1 (DKK-1), fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23), tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase 5b (TRAP5b), parathyroid hormone (PTH), and sclerostin. Logistic regression models, adjusted for age, gender, eGFR, and osteoporosis, assessed associations with CKD status. Tertiles of osteoblast surface (Ob.S/BS) and eroded surface (ES/BS) were defined in participants without CKD and applied to the full cohort. Multinomial and multivariable linear regression evaluated associations of biomarkers with these histomorphometry parameters. Among 97 enrolled participants (mean age 80 ± 11 years; 67% female), 68% had CKD. Of 75 with complete biomarker and histomorphometry data, 96% demonstrated low bone turnover. CKD was associated with lower trabecular thickness (Tb.Th) and higher osteoid thickness (O.Th), osteoid volume (OV/BV), and osteoid surface (OS/BS), suggesting thinner, largely unmineralized trabeculae. Higher BAP (222.2% difference per doubling; 95% CI 77.2-485.8) and TRAP5b (319.3%; 95% CI 128.3-669.5) were directly associated with Ob.S/BS and ES/BS, whereas sclerostin was inversely associated with ES/BS (-28.9%; 95% CI -44.8 to -7.1). PTH was not associated with bone-turnover measures. These findings suggest that BAP, TRAP5b, and sclerostin may provide useful adjunct information alongside PTH for assessing bone turnover and guiding therapy in patients with and without CKD.
慢性肾脏疾病(CKD)患者髋部骨折和骨折后死亡率较高。尽管他们可能会出现与年龄相关的骨质疏松症,类似于没有CKD的人,但他们也可能表现出CKD相关的代谢性骨病(MBD),其特征是在相似的骨密度(BMD)水平下出现低、高或混合的周转。由于BMD不能提供有关人员流动状态的信息,因此临床决策具有挑战性。本研究评估了髋部骨折手术患者循环骨转换生物标志物与静态组织形态学之间的关系。在这项横断面研究中,我们招募了有和没有CKD的成年人,定义为肾小球滤过率(eGFR)≤60 ml/min/1.73m²(CKD- epi 2021),接受髋部骨折手术。手术时收集血液样本、股骨头或大转子骨标本以及人口统计学和临床资料。血浆生物标志物包括α-Klotho、骨碱性磷酸酶(BAP)、dickkopf相关蛋白1 (DKK-1)、成纤维细胞生长因子23 (FGF23)、抗酒石酸酸性磷酸酶5b (TRAP5b)、甲状旁腺激素(PTH)和硬化蛋白。Logistic回归模型,校正年龄、性别、eGFR和骨质疏松,评估与CKD状态的关系。在没有CKD的参与者中定义成骨细胞表面(Ob.S/BS)和侵蚀表面(ES/BS),并应用于整个队列。多项和多变量线性回归评估生物标志物与这些组织形态计量参数的关联。在97名参与者中(平均年龄80±11岁,67%为女性),68%患有CKD。在75例具有完整生物标志物和组织形态测量数据的患者中,96%表现为低骨转换。CKD与较低的小梁厚度(Tb.Th)和较高的类骨厚度(O.Th)、类骨体积(OV/BV)和类骨表面(OS/BS)相关,提示较薄且大部分未矿化的小梁。较高的BAP(每翻倍差异222.2%;95% CI 77.2-485.8)和TRAP5b (319.3%; 95% CI 128.3-669.5)与Ob.S/BS和ES/BS直接相关,而硬化蛋白与ES/BS呈负相关(-28.9%;95% CI -44.8 - -7.1)。甲状旁腺激素与骨转换测量无关。这些发现表明BAP, TRAP5b和sclerostin可能与PTH一起提供有用的辅助信息,用于评估骨转换和指导CKD患者的治疗。
{"title":"Associations of Blood Biomarkers of Bone Turnover with Static Histomorphometry Parameters at the Hip in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease Undergoing Surgery for Hip Fracture.","authors":"Jan M Hughes-Austin, Lauren Claravall, Ronit Katz, Deborah M Kado, Alexandra K Schwartz, William T Kent, Paul Girard, Renata C Pereira, Isidro B Salusky, Joachim H Ix","doi":"10.64898/2026.03.04.26347613","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.03.04.26347613","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have higher rates of hip fracture and post-fracture mortality. Although they may develop age-related osteoporosis similar to those without CKD, they may also exhibit CKD-related metabolic bone disease (MBD), characterized by low, high, or mixed turnover at similar levels of bone mineral density (BMD). Because BMD does not provide information about turnover status, clinical decision-making is challenging. This study evaluated the associations between circulating bone-turnover biomarkers and static histomorphometry in patients undergoing hip-fracture surgery. In this cross-sectional study, we enrolled adults with and without CKD, defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≤60 ml/min/1.73m² (CKD-EPI 2021), undergoing hip-fracture surgery. Blood samples, bone specimens from the femoral head or greater trochanter, and demographic and clinical data were collected at the time of surgery. Plasma biomarkers included α-Klotho, bone alkaline phosphatase (BAP), dickkopf-related protein 1 (DKK-1), fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23), tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase 5b (TRAP5b), parathyroid hormone (PTH), and sclerostin. Logistic regression models, adjusted for age, gender, eGFR, and osteoporosis, assessed associations with CKD status. Tertiles of osteoblast surface (Ob.S/BS) and eroded surface (ES/BS) were defined in participants without CKD and applied to the full cohort. Multinomial and multivariable linear regression evaluated associations of biomarkers with these histomorphometry parameters. Among 97 enrolled participants (mean age 80 ± 11 years; 67% female), 68% had CKD. Of 75 with complete biomarker and histomorphometry data, 96% demonstrated low bone turnover. CKD was associated with lower trabecular thickness (Tb.Th) and higher osteoid thickness (O.Th), osteoid volume (OV/BV), and osteoid surface (OS/BS), suggesting thinner, largely unmineralized trabeculae. Higher BAP (222.2% difference per doubling; 95% CI 77.2-485.8) and TRAP5b (319.3%; 95% CI 128.3-669.5) were directly associated with Ob.S/BS and ES/BS, whereas sclerostin was inversely associated with ES/BS (-28.9%; 95% CI -44.8 to -7.1). PTH was not associated with bone-turnover measures. These findings suggest that BAP, TRAP5b, and sclerostin may provide useful adjunct information alongside PTH for assessing bone turnover and guiding therapy in patients with and without CKD.</p>","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13004092/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147501260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-05DOI: 10.64898/2026.03.04.26347669
Joanne S Carpenter, Jacob J Crouse, Mathew Varidel, Emiliana Tonini, Mirim Shin, Natalia Zmicerevska, Alissa Nichles, Daniel F Hermens, Kathleen R Merikangas, Elizabeth M Scott, Ian B Hickie, Frank Iorfino
Background: While growing evidence implicates sleep-wake and circadian rhythm disturbances (SCRDs) in the onset and course of mood and psychotic disorders, longitudinal studies using objective measures are limited. This clinical cohort study examined whether actigraphy-derived SCRDs (sleep duration, timing, and efficiency) predicted transition to (i) any full-threshold mental disorders; and then specifically: (ii) full-threshold bipolar or psychotic disorders or (iii) other full-threshold (i.e. depressive or anxiety) disorders, in youth accessing mental health care.
Methods: Actigraphy monitoring was completed for 5-23 days in 250 participants (aged 12-30) presenting to youth-focused early intervention services in Sydney, Australia. Participants were followed longitudinally as part of the Optymise cohort for 6+ months (up to 8 years; median 2.5 years). Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models estimated associations between SCRDs and illness progression, after controlling for relevant baseline clinical and demographic covariates (e.g., age, sex, social and occupational functioning, mania-like and psychotic-like experiences, medication use).
Results: Longer sleep duration at baseline predicted higher odds of transition (OR = 2.23 [95%CI = 1.38-3.74]), and shorter time-to-transition (HR = 2.05 [95%CI = 1.23-3.40]) to full-threshold bipolar or psychotic disorders. This effect remained significant after controlling for clinical covariates. Later sleep midpoint predicted transition to any full-threshold mental disorder (OR = 1.46 [95%CI = 1.02-2.17]) at the uncorrected significance level.
Conclusions: Excessive sleep duration may represent an early marker of vulnerability for progression to severe mental illness. Findings support the prognostic utility of objective measures of SCRDs to guide indicated prevention and early intervention.
{"title":"Longer Sleep Duration Predicts Progression to Bipolar or Psychotic Disorders in Youth accessing Early Intervention Mental Health Services.","authors":"Joanne S Carpenter, Jacob J Crouse, Mathew Varidel, Emiliana Tonini, Mirim Shin, Natalia Zmicerevska, Alissa Nichles, Daniel F Hermens, Kathleen R Merikangas, Elizabeth M Scott, Ian B Hickie, Frank Iorfino","doi":"10.64898/2026.03.04.26347669","DOIUrl":"10.64898/2026.03.04.26347669","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>While growing evidence implicates sleep-wake and circadian rhythm disturbances (SCRDs) in the onset and course of mood and psychotic disorders, longitudinal studies using objective measures are limited. This clinical cohort study examined whether actigraphy-derived SCRDs (sleep duration, timing, and efficiency) predicted transition to (i) any full-threshold mental disorders; and then specifically: (ii) full-threshold bipolar or psychotic disorders or (iii) other full-threshold (i.e. depressive or anxiety) disorders, in youth accessing mental health care.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Actigraphy monitoring was completed for 5-23 days in 250 participants (aged 12-30) presenting to youth-focused early intervention services in Sydney, Australia. Participants were followed longitudinally as part of the Optymise cohort for 6+ months (up to 8 years; median 2.5 years). Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models estimated associations between SCRDs and illness progression, after controlling for relevant baseline clinical and demographic covariates (e.g., age, sex, social and occupational functioning, mania-like and psychotic-like experiences, medication use).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Longer sleep duration at baseline predicted higher odds of transition (OR = 2.23 [95%CI = 1.38-3.74]), and shorter time-to-transition (HR = 2.05 [95%CI = 1.23-3.40]) to full-threshold bipolar or psychotic disorders. This effect remained significant after controlling for clinical covariates. Later sleep midpoint predicted transition to any full-threshold mental disorder (OR = 1.46 [95%CI = 1.02-2.17]) at the uncorrected significance level.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Excessive sleep duration may represent an early marker of vulnerability for progression to severe mental illness. Findings support the prognostic utility of objective measures of SCRDs to guide indicated prevention and early intervention.</p>","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12976896/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147446385","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-05DOI: 10.64898/2026.03.04.26347545
Amit Weigman, Wenli Zhao, Steve L Liao, Maria Giovanna Trivieri, Samuel Madiman, Stamatios Lerakis, Eimear E Kenny, Noura S Abul-Husn, Vikas Pejaver, Amy R Kontorovich
<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>To identify unique echocardiographic signatures associated with <i>TTR</i> + carrier status preceding onset of cardiac amyloidosis.</p><p><strong>Background: </strong>Carrier status for the most common pathogenic <i>TTR</i> variant in the United States, Val142Ile (V142I), found in 4% of African Americans (AA) and 1% of Hispanic/Latino (H/L) individuals, confers a 40-60% lifetime risk of developing variant transthyretin amyloidosis (ATTRv), including cardiac amyloidosis (CA) and heart failure (HF). Myocardial amyloid deposition is believed to progress over many years. Genomic screening programs and familial cascade genetic testing are increasingly uncovering pre-symptomatic <i>TTR</i> + carriers, yet no guidelines exist to pragmatically risk stratify these individuals for CA.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>V142I+ carriers (cases) without prior diagnoses of amyloidosis or HF were identified among Bio <i>Me</i> biobank participants with available exome sequencing data linked to electronic health records (EHRs) including at least one available echocardiogram. Controls were biobank participants with normal <i>TTR</i> sequencing who were age-, sex- and ancestry-matched to cases. Speckle-tracking echocardiography (STE) was applied to images and conventional and strain measurements were evaluated by univariate analyses. A random forest model was trained using a minimal redundancy maximal relevance (mRMR, applied to mitigate overfitting) feature set and evaluated by 5-fold cross-validation to minimize optimism bias. Discriminatory performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>49 <i>TTR</i> + (100% V142I, median age 61 years, 69.4% female) and 45 matched <i>TTR</i> -biobank participants were included in the model development cohort. STE generated approximately 200 features. Univariate analyses revealed no significant differences between carriers and controls on any individual strain or conventional echocardiographic measurements including global longitudinal, right ventricular and left atrial strain. mRMR feature selection resulted in a set of 15 features retained for all downstream modeling, integrating global amyloid signatures, regional inferolateral strain abnormalities, layer-specific deformation, and mechanical timing heterogeneity. Using this feature set, the model achieved good discrimination (AUC=0.76). Feature importance analysis highlighted relative apical sparing, inferolateral strain reduction, and basal-apical timing gradients as key contributors to model performance. External validation (n=115) confirmed good model discrimination (AUC=0.781, 95% CI: 0.688-0.869, sensitivity 0.983).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Machine learning applied to routinely acquired echocardiographic data can identify subtle myocardial abnormalities associated with <i>TTR</i> V142I carrier status prior to development of CA. Key model features are
{"title":"Automated machine learning of echocardiographic strain enables identification of early myocardial changes in pre-symptomatic <i>TTR</i> carriers.","authors":"Amit Weigman, Wenli Zhao, Steve L Liao, Maria Giovanna Trivieri, Samuel Madiman, Stamatios Lerakis, Eimear E Kenny, Noura S Abul-Husn, Vikas Pejaver, Amy R Kontorovich","doi":"10.64898/2026.03.04.26347545","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.03.04.26347545","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>To identify unique echocardiographic signatures associated with <i>TTR</i> + carrier status preceding onset of cardiac amyloidosis.</p><p><strong>Background: </strong>Carrier status for the most common pathogenic <i>TTR</i> variant in the United States, Val142Ile (V142I), found in 4% of African Americans (AA) and 1% of Hispanic/Latino (H/L) individuals, confers a 40-60% lifetime risk of developing variant transthyretin amyloidosis (ATTRv), including cardiac amyloidosis (CA) and heart failure (HF). Myocardial amyloid deposition is believed to progress over many years. Genomic screening programs and familial cascade genetic testing are increasingly uncovering pre-symptomatic <i>TTR</i> + carriers, yet no guidelines exist to pragmatically risk stratify these individuals for CA.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>V142I+ carriers (cases) without prior diagnoses of amyloidosis or HF were identified among Bio <i>Me</i> biobank participants with available exome sequencing data linked to electronic health records (EHRs) including at least one available echocardiogram. Controls were biobank participants with normal <i>TTR</i> sequencing who were age-, sex- and ancestry-matched to cases. Speckle-tracking echocardiography (STE) was applied to images and conventional and strain measurements were evaluated by univariate analyses. A random forest model was trained using a minimal redundancy maximal relevance (mRMR, applied to mitigate overfitting) feature set and evaluated by 5-fold cross-validation to minimize optimism bias. Discriminatory performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>49 <i>TTR</i> + (100% V142I, median age 61 years, 69.4% female) and 45 matched <i>TTR</i> -biobank participants were included in the model development cohort. STE generated approximately 200 features. Univariate analyses revealed no significant differences between carriers and controls on any individual strain or conventional echocardiographic measurements including global longitudinal, right ventricular and left atrial strain. mRMR feature selection resulted in a set of 15 features retained for all downstream modeling, integrating global amyloid signatures, regional inferolateral strain abnormalities, layer-specific deformation, and mechanical timing heterogeneity. Using this feature set, the model achieved good discrimination (AUC=0.76). Feature importance analysis highlighted relative apical sparing, inferolateral strain reduction, and basal-apical timing gradients as key contributors to model performance. External validation (n=115) confirmed good model discrimination (AUC=0.781, 95% CI: 0.688-0.869, sensitivity 0.983).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Machine learning applied to routinely acquired echocardiographic data can identify subtle myocardial abnormalities associated with <i>TTR</i> V142I carrier status prior to development of CA. Key model features are ","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13004165/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147500587","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}