Pub Date : 2026-02-03DOI: 10.64898/2026.01.29.26345155
Carolina Agudelo, Moses Nsereko, Aggrey Ainebyona, Alfred Andama, Robert Castro, Sarrah Rose Mikhail Leung, Jascent Nakafeero, Gertrude Nannyonga, Kevin Nolan, Lucas Teran, Peter Wambi, Mark G Young, Midori Kato-Maeda, Adithya Cattamanchi, Devan Jaganath, Eric Wobudeya, Ashley R Wolf
Background: Stool-based molecular tests are a noninvasive option for pediatric tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis, but have lower sensitivity compared to sputum-based tests. Untargeted metagenomic sequencing (mNGS) on stool could improve sensitivity and identify new gene targets for molecular testing.
Methods: We performed shotgun mNGS on DNA isolated from stool samples of children undergoing assessment for pulmonary TB in Uganda. We defined the performance of mNGS to identify Mycobacterium tuberculosis ( Mtb ) against a microbiological reference standard (MRS, TB if sputum Xpert Ultra or culture positive) and a composite reference standard (TB if confirmed or unconfirmed TB). We also compared accuracy of mNGS against the stool-based Xpert Ultra test. Finally, we identified enriched genomic loci among Mtb classified reads.
Results: We analyzed 176 stool samples of children with a median age of 3.6 years (IQR, 1-6 years). !"#$%&'(')*(+,-. (')*(&*%&$'$/$'$*&(01(234-(5$')(60&$'$/*(78(9*1$%*9(as ≥ 1, 2, or 5 sequence fragments were 35.5% (95% CI 19%:;;<=.(>;?@<(AB>< : 45%), and 19.4% (13%-25%) respectively, and specificities 92.64% (87%-96%), 97% (93%-99%), and 99.3% (96%-100%). Stool Xpert Ultra had similar sensitivity (22.6%) to stool mNGS considering all samples tested. In a head-to-head comparison, stool mNGS had lower sensitivity than stool Xpert Ultra (38.5% vs. 53.8%, difference -15.3%, 95% CI 14-68 to 25-81). mNGS utilized rRNA, virulence proteins and membrane proteins not targeted in current PCR-based platforms.
Conclusions: Metagenomic sequencing of stool DNA did not increase sensitivity of TB detection, but identified novel targets for molecular testing that may support development of more sensitive tests.
{"title":"Evaluating metagenomic sequencing as a stool-based diagnostic in children with presumptive TB in Uganda.","authors":"Carolina Agudelo, Moses Nsereko, Aggrey Ainebyona, Alfred Andama, Robert Castro, Sarrah Rose Mikhail Leung, Jascent Nakafeero, Gertrude Nannyonga, Kevin Nolan, Lucas Teran, Peter Wambi, Mark G Young, Midori Kato-Maeda, Adithya Cattamanchi, Devan Jaganath, Eric Wobudeya, Ashley R Wolf","doi":"10.64898/2026.01.29.26345155","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.01.29.26345155","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Stool-based molecular tests are a noninvasive option for pediatric tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis, but have lower sensitivity compared to sputum-based tests. Untargeted metagenomic sequencing (mNGS) on stool could improve sensitivity and identify new gene targets for molecular testing.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We performed shotgun mNGS on DNA isolated from stool samples of children undergoing assessment for pulmonary TB in Uganda. We defined the performance of mNGS to identify <i>Mycobacterium tuberculosis</i> ( <i>Mtb</i> ) against a microbiological reference standard (MRS, TB if sputum Xpert Ultra or culture positive) and a composite reference standard (TB if confirmed or unconfirmed TB). We also compared accuracy of mNGS against the stool-based Xpert Ultra test. Finally, we identified enriched genomic loci among <i>Mtb</i> classified reads.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We analyzed 176 stool samples of children with a median age of 3.6 years (IQR, 1-6 years). !\"#$%&'(')*(+,-. (')*(&*%&$'$/$'$*&(01(234-(5$')(60&$'$/*(78(9*1$%*9(as ≥ 1, 2, or 5 sequence fragments were 35.5% (95% CI 19%:;;<=.(>;?@<(AB>< : 45%), and 19.4% (13%-25%) respectively, and specificities 92.64% (87%-96%), 97% (93%-99%), and 99.3% (96%-100%). Stool Xpert Ultra had similar sensitivity (22.6%) to stool mNGS considering all samples tested. In a head-to-head comparison, stool mNGS had lower sensitivity than stool Xpert Ultra (38.5% vs. 53.8%, difference -15.3%, 95% CI 14-68 to 25-81). mNGS utilized rRNA, virulence proteins and membrane proteins not targeted in current PCR-based platforms.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Metagenomic sequencing of stool DNA did not increase sensitivity of TB detection, but identified novel targets for molecular testing that may support development of more sensitive tests.</p>","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12889781/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146168754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-03DOI: 10.64898/2026.01.30.26345139
Noah Herrick, Seppe Goovaerts, Alexandra Manchel, Myoung Keun Lee, Xinyi Zhang, Amy Davies, Jenna C Carlson, Elizabeth J Leslie-Clarkson, Sarah J Lewis, Mary L Marazita, Justin Cotney, Peter Claes, John R Shaffer, Seth M Weinberg
Several lines of evidence suggest that normal-range facial features and nonsyndromic orofacial clefts (OFCs) exhibit a shared genetic basis. Approaches designed to leverage this relationship hold the possibility of revealing new OFC risk loci by boosting discovery power. To test this idea, we applied a pleiotropy-informed GWAS method (cFDR-GWAS) with summary statistics from large, independent European GWASs of normal facial shape (n=4,680; n=3,566) and nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (nsCL/P, n=3,969). The cFDR approach identified 21 independent genomic loci significantly associated with nsCL/P, providing further evidence of the interconnected genetic architecture between these traits. The five original nsCL/P GWAS signals were detected and joined by nine additional loci previously implicated in other OFC association studies. The remaining seven loci represent new nsCL/P genomic regions, and three of these replicated (P < 0.05) in an independent nsCL/P cohort: ASPSCR1, MSX2, and RALYL. A relaxed 10% cFDR-GWAS threshold identified 15 more independent loci with comparable effect sizes to those detected at the strict 5% threshold, two of which replicated: FHOD3 and SMARCA2. Gene expression patterns in major cell types and spatial transcriptomics data highlighted our gene candidates' roles in craniofacial development. In conclusion, the application of an empirical Bayesian strategy to draw on association signals from genetically related traits can boost the power to identify and prioritize OFC risk loci missed by agnostic gene mapping approaches. These results hold promise that the cFDR-GWAS approach may be able to enhance our understanding of the genetic architecture of other structural birth defects.
{"title":"Leveraging the genetics of human face shape boosts the discovery of orofacial cleft risk loci.","authors":"Noah Herrick, Seppe Goovaerts, Alexandra Manchel, Myoung Keun Lee, Xinyi Zhang, Amy Davies, Jenna C Carlson, Elizabeth J Leslie-Clarkson, Sarah J Lewis, Mary L Marazita, Justin Cotney, Peter Claes, John R Shaffer, Seth M Weinberg","doi":"10.64898/2026.01.30.26345139","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.01.30.26345139","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Several lines of evidence suggest that normal-range facial features and nonsyndromic orofacial clefts (OFCs) exhibit a shared genetic basis. Approaches designed to leverage this relationship hold the possibility of revealing new OFC risk loci by boosting discovery power. To test this idea, we applied a pleiotropy-informed GWAS method (cFDR-GWAS) with summary statistics from large, independent European GWASs of normal facial shape (n=4,680; n=3,566) and nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (nsCL/P, n=3,969). The cFDR approach identified 21 independent genomic loci significantly associated with nsCL/P, providing further evidence of the interconnected genetic architecture between these traits. The five original nsCL/P GWAS signals were detected and joined by nine additional loci previously implicated in other OFC association studies. The remaining seven loci represent new nsCL/P genomic regions, and three of these replicated (P < 0.05) in an independent nsCL/P cohort: ASPSCR1, MSX2, and RALYL. A relaxed 10% cFDR-GWAS threshold identified 15 more independent loci with comparable effect sizes to those detected at the strict 5% threshold, two of which replicated: FHOD3 and SMARCA2. Gene expression patterns in major cell types and spatial transcriptomics data highlighted our gene candidates' roles in craniofacial development. In conclusion, the application of an empirical Bayesian strategy to draw on association signals from genetically related traits can boost the power to identify and prioritize OFC risk loci missed by agnostic gene mapping approaches. These results hold promise that the cFDR-GWAS approach may be able to enhance our understanding of the genetic architecture of other structural birth defects.</p>","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12889762/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146168389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-03DOI: 10.64898/2026.02.02.26345363
Pablo García-González, Raquel Puerta, Jonas Dehairs, Chengran Yang, Ciyang Wang, Jigyasha Timsina, Itziar de Rojas, Claudia Olivé, Alejandro Valenzuela, Paula Bayón-Buján, Marta Rovira, Laura Montrreal, Maria Capdevila, Álvaro Muñoz-Morales, Berta Calm, Sergi Valero, Montse Alegret, Marta Marquié, John C Morris, Suzanne E Schindler, David M Holtzman, Pilar Sanz, Lluís Tárraga, Asif Khan, Maria E Sáez, Bart Smets, Adelina Orellana, Xavier Montalbán, Mercè Boada, Amanda Cano, Menghan Liu, Muhammad Ali, Carlos Cruchaga, Johannes V Swinnen, Victoria Fernández, Alfredo Cabrera-Socorro, Agustín Ruiz
Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers are central to Alzheimer's disease (AD) diagnosis and research. However, CSF composition is shaped not only by neurodegeneration, but also by underlying physiological and pathological processes that remain poorly characterized. By integrating multi-omics data from the deeply characterized memory-clinic ACE CSF cohort (N=1,372), the Global Neurodegeneration Proteomics Consortium (N=1,863), and publicly available quantitative trait loci data, we reveal that 73.2-85.9% of the molecular variance in CSF omics data is driven by two main factors: one reflecting CSF turnover rate, and another representing blood-brain barrier (BBB) integrity. CSF turnover mainly determines brain-derived molecules, while BBB damage leads to increased blood-derived protein abundance. CSF turnover/clearance severely impacted core AD biomarker levels, affecting the classification of subjects in the A/T framework. Adjusting biomarker levels for OPCML, a novel reference marker, improved biomarker-based prediction of AD progression and removed confounded associations, revealing a proteomic signature of sporadic AD pathology that closely resembles that of autosomal dominant AD. Finally, using the ACE CSF cohort as discovery (N=1,221) and Knight ADRC as replication (N=1,073), we report a curated AD signature comprising 446 unique proteins. Our findings identify CSF dynamics as a major source of molecular variation, reshaping the interpretation of CSF biomarkers.
{"title":"CSF turnover reshapes biomarker interpretation in neurodegeneration studies.","authors":"Pablo García-González, Raquel Puerta, Jonas Dehairs, Chengran Yang, Ciyang Wang, Jigyasha Timsina, Itziar de Rojas, Claudia Olivé, Alejandro Valenzuela, Paula Bayón-Buján, Marta Rovira, Laura Montrreal, Maria Capdevila, Álvaro Muñoz-Morales, Berta Calm, Sergi Valero, Montse Alegret, Marta Marquié, John C Morris, Suzanne E Schindler, David M Holtzman, Pilar Sanz, Lluís Tárraga, Asif Khan, Maria E Sáez, Bart Smets, Adelina Orellana, Xavier Montalbán, Mercè Boada, Amanda Cano, Menghan Liu, Muhammad Ali, Carlos Cruchaga, Johannes V Swinnen, Victoria Fernández, Alfredo Cabrera-Socorro, Agustín Ruiz","doi":"10.64898/2026.02.02.26345363","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.02.02.26345363","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers are central to Alzheimer's disease (AD) diagnosis and research. However, CSF composition is shaped not only by neurodegeneration, but also by underlying physiological and pathological processes that remain poorly characterized. By integrating multi-omics data from the deeply characterized memory-clinic ACE CSF cohort (N=1,372), the Global Neurodegeneration Proteomics Consortium (N=1,863), and publicly available quantitative trait <i>loci</i> data, we reveal that 73.2-85.9% of the molecular variance in CSF omics data is driven by two main factors: one reflecting CSF turnover rate, and another representing blood-brain barrier (BBB) integrity. CSF turnover mainly determines brain-derived molecules, while BBB damage leads to increased blood-derived protein abundance. CSF turnover/clearance severely impacted core AD biomarker levels, affecting the classification of subjects in the A/T framework. Adjusting biomarker levels for OPCML, a novel reference marker, improved biomarker-based prediction of AD progression and removed confounded associations, revealing a proteomic signature of sporadic AD pathology that closely resembles that of autosomal dominant AD. Finally, using the ACE CSF cohort as discovery (N=1,221) and Knight ADRC as replication (N=1,073), we report a curated AD signature comprising 446 unique proteins. Our findings identify CSF dynamics as a major source of molecular variation, reshaping the interpretation of CSF biomarkers.</p>","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12889764/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146168458","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-03DOI: 10.64898/2026.01.02.26343331
Emmanuel Fle Chea
<p><strong>Background: </strong>The ATN (Amyloid/Tau/Neurodegeneration) framework provides a theory-driven approach to Alzheimer's disease (AD) classification using binary biomarker cutoffs, while unsupervised machine learning offers data-driven phenotyping. The concordance between these approaches in population-representative samples remains incompletely characterized.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>To compare plasma ATN classification with data-driven clustering methods and evaluate their associations with cognitive outcomes in a nationally representative cohort.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We analyzed plasma biomarkers (Aβ42/40 ratio, p-tau181, NfL, GFAP) from 4,465 participants aged ≥51 years in the Health and Retirement Study 2016 Venous Blood Study. ATN profiles were classified using literature-based cutoffs. We applied k-means clustering, Gaussian mixture modeling, and variational autoencoder (VAE) dimensionality reduction to identify data-driven biomarker-defined subgroups. Agreement between ATN and clustering was quantified using adjusted Rand index (ARI) and normalized mutual information (NMI). Longitudinal analyses examined associations with cognitive decline over 4 years (2016-2020).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The analytic sample included 4,465 individuals (mean age 69.7±10.4 years; 58.7% female; 75.8% non-Hispanic White). ATN classification yielded 14 profiles, with A+/T-/N-(27.4%) and A-/T-/N-(22.6%) most prevalent (Figure 2). K-means clustering identified 4 optimal clusters with distinct biomarker signatures. Agreement between ATN and clusters was modest (ARI=0.119, NMI=0.113). Sensitivity analysis excluding GFAP from clustering reduced agreement substantially (ARI=0.03 vs 0.119 with GFAP, -74.5% decrease), demonstrating that GFAP accounts for most of the observed concordance between clustering and ATN classification, with only one-third arising from the shared three biomarkers.[Table S12] Additional sensitivity analyses confirmed that k=4 provides finer biomarker resolution than k=3 by retaining biomarker-extreme subgroups[Table S13], and that Cluster 4 represents a stable biological structure across distance metrics[Table S14] despite its small size. Cluster 1 (n=51, 1.2%) showed severe pathology; Cluster 3 (n=3,479, 78.6%) represented the largest and most heterogeneous group, encompassing the broad spectrum of minimal to moderate pathology across all ATN profiles; Cluster 4 (n=14, 0.3%) represented a small but stable non-AD biomarker-defined subgroup (Jaccard=0.779). The VAE revealed a localized nonlinear structure. Silhouette values in the latent space are not directly comparable to clustering silhouettes, but the VAE embedding showed clearer local separation, whereas PCA explained more variance (67.1%). Both ATN and clusters predicted 4-year cognitive decline (ATN R²=0.024, p<0.001; Clusters R²=0.019, p<0.001).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Theory-driven ATN classification and data-driven biomarker phenotypin
{"title":"ATN Classification and Machine-Learned Plasma Biomarker Phenotypes Reveal Distinct Alzheimer's Pathology in a Population-Based Cohort.","authors":"Emmanuel Fle Chea","doi":"10.64898/2026.01.02.26343331","DOIUrl":"10.64898/2026.01.02.26343331","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The ATN (Amyloid/Tau/Neurodegeneration) framework provides a theory-driven approach to Alzheimer's disease (AD) classification using binary biomarker cutoffs, while unsupervised machine learning offers data-driven phenotyping. The concordance between these approaches in population-representative samples remains incompletely characterized.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>To compare plasma ATN classification with data-driven clustering methods and evaluate their associations with cognitive outcomes in a nationally representative cohort.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We analyzed plasma biomarkers (Aβ42/40 ratio, p-tau181, NfL, GFAP) from 4,465 participants aged ≥51 years in the Health and Retirement Study 2016 Venous Blood Study. ATN profiles were classified using literature-based cutoffs. We applied k-means clustering, Gaussian mixture modeling, and variational autoencoder (VAE) dimensionality reduction to identify data-driven biomarker-defined subgroups. Agreement between ATN and clustering was quantified using adjusted Rand index (ARI) and normalized mutual information (NMI). Longitudinal analyses examined associations with cognitive decline over 4 years (2016-2020).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The analytic sample included 4,465 individuals (mean age 69.7±10.4 years; 58.7% female; 75.8% non-Hispanic White). ATN classification yielded 14 profiles, with A+/T-/N-(27.4%) and A-/T-/N-(22.6%) most prevalent (Figure 2). K-means clustering identified 4 optimal clusters with distinct biomarker signatures. Agreement between ATN and clusters was modest (ARI=0.119, NMI=0.113). Sensitivity analysis excluding GFAP from clustering reduced agreement substantially (ARI=0.03 vs 0.119 with GFAP, -74.5% decrease), demonstrating that GFAP accounts for most of the observed concordance between clustering and ATN classification, with only one-third arising from the shared three biomarkers.[Table S12] Additional sensitivity analyses confirmed that k=4 provides finer biomarker resolution than k=3 by retaining biomarker-extreme subgroups[Table S13], and that Cluster 4 represents a stable biological structure across distance metrics[Table S14] despite its small size. Cluster 1 (n=51, 1.2%) showed severe pathology; Cluster 3 (n=3,479, 78.6%) represented the largest and most heterogeneous group, encompassing the broad spectrum of minimal to moderate pathology across all ATN profiles; Cluster 4 (n=14, 0.3%) represented a small but stable non-AD biomarker-defined subgroup (Jaccard=0.779). The VAE revealed a localized nonlinear structure. Silhouette values in the latent space are not directly comparable to clustering silhouettes, but the VAE embedding showed clearer local separation, whereas PCA explained more variance (67.1%). Both ATN and clusters predicted 4-year cognitive decline (ATN R²=0.024, p<0.001; Clusters R²=0.019, p<0.001).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Theory-driven ATN classification and data-driven biomarker phenotypin","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12803393/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145992367","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-03DOI: 10.64898/2026.01.30.26345158
Dailin Luo, Alexandre A Lussier
Prenatal alcohol exposure (PAE) can lead to a range of deficits falling under the umbrella of Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD), which included higher risk for adverse neurodevelopmental and mental health outcomes. Although the biological mechanisms underlying the link between PAE and mental health remain unclear, DNA methylation (DNAm), an epigenetic modification responsive to environmental exposures, may explain these relationships. Here, we applied a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) framework to assess whether DNAm loci previously associated with PAE or FASD are linked to 11 psychiatric outcomes. Using summary statistics from the Genetics of DNA Methylation Consortium (GoDMC) mQTL database and large-scale GWAS, we analyzed DNAm loci from two epigenome-wide association studies: one examining FASD by Lussier et al. (2018) and one examining PAE patterns by Sharp et al. (2018). A total of 106 associations (Lussier) and 28 associations (Sharp) reached nominal significance (p<0.05) and passed sensitivity tests, with several surviving multiple testing correction. Notably, schizophrenia and bipolar disorder had the highest number of associated loci across both studies. Functional analysis showed that DNAm loci were enriched in signaling pathways, embryonic development, and neuron differentiation. Regional enrichment analysis revealed that FASD-related loci were more likely to occur in enhancer and south shore, implicating distal regulatory elements. PAE patterns conferred heterogeneous effects on DNAm and mental health risk, underscoring the complexity of timing-specific epigenetic vulnerability. These findings offer novel insights into the potential mechanism of DNAm linking PAE to mental health, and demonstrate the utility of MR in epigenetic epidemiology.
{"title":"Prenatal Alcohol Exposure and Mental Health Outcomes: A Two-Sample Mendelian Randomization Study of DNA Methylation Signatures.","authors":"Dailin Luo, Alexandre A Lussier","doi":"10.64898/2026.01.30.26345158","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.01.30.26345158","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Prenatal alcohol exposure (PAE) can lead to a range of deficits falling under the umbrella of Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD), which included higher risk for adverse neurodevelopmental and mental health outcomes. Although the biological mechanisms underlying the link between PAE and mental health remain unclear, DNA methylation (DNAm), an epigenetic modification responsive to environmental exposures, may explain these relationships. Here, we applied a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) framework to assess whether DNAm loci previously associated with PAE or FASD are linked to 11 psychiatric outcomes. Using summary statistics from the Genetics of DNA Methylation Consortium (GoDMC) mQTL database and large-scale GWAS, we analyzed DNAm loci from two epigenome-wide association studies: one examining FASD by Lussier et al. (2018) and one examining PAE patterns by Sharp et al. (2018). A total of 106 associations (Lussier) and 28 associations (Sharp) reached nominal significance (p<0.05) and passed sensitivity tests, with several surviving multiple testing correction. Notably, schizophrenia and bipolar disorder had the highest number of associated loci across both studies. Functional analysis showed that DNAm loci were enriched in signaling pathways, embryonic development, and neuron differentiation. Regional enrichment analysis revealed that FASD-related loci were more likely to occur in enhancer and south shore, implicating distal regulatory elements. PAE patterns conferred heterogeneous effects on DNAm and mental health risk, underscoring the complexity of timing-specific epigenetic vulnerability. These findings offer novel insights into the potential mechanism of DNAm linking PAE to mental health, and demonstrate the utility of MR in epigenetic epidemiology.</p>","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12889801/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146168697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-03DOI: 10.1101/2025.07.13.25331469
Aly Hamza Khowaja, Kholood Janjua, Haider Ali, Rubbia Afridi, Zoha Zahid Fazal, Mohammad Abdul Saqhlain Shaik, Mohamed Ibrahim Ahmed, Muhammad Sohail Halim, Theodore Leng, Carolyn K Pan, Quan Dong Nguyen, Yasir Jamal Sepah
Purpose: To determine whether significant changes in best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) precede or coincide with increases in central retinal thickness (CRT) in diabetic macular edema (DME) during a treat-and-extend (T&E) regimen following initial edema resolution.
Methods: This post-hoc analysis included 60 eyes (60 participants) from the READ-3 clinical trial that achieved CRT <250 µm and were followed until edema recurrence. Following a six-month ranibizumab loading phase, patients were monitored through 24 months with as-needed retreatment. Significant changes were defined as ≥4 Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS) letters and ≥30 µm on time-domain optical coherence tomography (TD-OCT). The temporal relationship between functional (BCVA) and anatomical (CRT) changes was analyzed.
Results: Median time to edema resolution was 10 months (IQR: 6-16) and to recurrence was 3 months (IQR: 2-3). 52 eyes (86.7%) had functional worsening and 43 (71.7%) had anatomical worsening. In 39 eyes exhibiting both types of deterioration, changes were concurrent in 24 (61.5%). Vision loss preceded anatomical recurrence (BCVA-led) in 23.1% of eyes, with a lead time of 1-4 months. Conversely, anatomical thickening preceded vision loss (OCT-led) in 15.4% of eyes, by a maximum of 2 months.
Conclusions: BCVA fluctuations frequently mirror CRT changes and can precede structural relapse, suggesting that BCVA is a sensitive indicator of DME activity. In resource-limited settings, BCVA may allow for earlier detection of recurrence than OCT alone.
Translational relevance: Functional vision loss can precede structural edema recurrence, supporting the potential for home-based BCVA monitoring as a validated bridge for timely clinical intervention in DME.
{"title":"Treating Vision, Not Signs: A Post-hoc Analysis Evaluating BCVA as an Early Indicator in Treat-and-Extend Management of DME.","authors":"Aly Hamza Khowaja, Kholood Janjua, Haider Ali, Rubbia Afridi, Zoha Zahid Fazal, Mohammad Abdul Saqhlain Shaik, Mohamed Ibrahim Ahmed, Muhammad Sohail Halim, Theodore Leng, Carolyn K Pan, Quan Dong Nguyen, Yasir Jamal Sepah","doi":"10.1101/2025.07.13.25331469","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.07.13.25331469","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Purpose: </strong>To determine whether significant changes in best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) precede or coincide with increases in central retinal thickness (CRT) in diabetic macular edema (DME) during a treat-and-extend (T&E) regimen following initial edema resolution.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This post-hoc analysis included 60 eyes (60 participants) from the READ-3 clinical trial that achieved CRT <250 µm and were followed until edema recurrence. Following a six-month ranibizumab loading phase, patients were monitored through 24 months with as-needed retreatment. Significant changes were defined as ≥4 Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS) letters and ≥30 µm on time-domain optical coherence tomography (TD-OCT). The temporal relationship between functional (BCVA) and anatomical (CRT) changes was analyzed.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Median time to edema resolution was 10 months (IQR: 6-16) and to recurrence was 3 months (IQR: 2-3). 52 eyes (86.7%) had functional worsening and 43 (71.7%) had anatomical worsening. In 39 eyes exhibiting both types of deterioration, changes were concurrent in 24 (61.5%). Vision loss preceded anatomical recurrence (BCVA-led) in 23.1% of eyes, with a lead time of 1-4 months. Conversely, anatomical thickening preceded vision loss (OCT-led) in 15.4% of eyes, by a maximum of 2 months.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>BCVA fluctuations frequently mirror CRT changes and can precede structural relapse, suggesting that BCVA is a sensitive indicator of DME activity. In resource-limited settings, BCVA may allow for earlier detection of recurrence than OCT alone.</p><p><strong>Translational relevance: </strong>Functional vision loss can precede structural edema recurrence, supporting the potential for home-based BCVA monitoring as a validated bridge for timely clinical intervention in DME.</p>","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12893064/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146184083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-03DOI: 10.64898/2026.01.31.26345293
Evelyn Kung, Rinki Deo, Manish C Choudhary, Kara W Chew, Teresa H Evering, Rachel Bender Ignacio, Prasanna Jagannathan, James P Flynn, James Regan, Carlee Moser, Mark J Giganti, Michael D Hughes, Justin Ritz, Arzhang Cyrus Javan, Alexander L Greninger, Upinder Singh, William Fischer, Eric S Daar, David A Wohl, Joseph J Eron, Judith S Currier, Robert W Coombs, Davey M Smith, Jonathan Z Li
To evaluate the impact of sex on acute SARS-CoV-2 infection, 668 participants from the ACTIV-2/A5401 study were followed over a 28-day period. A primary analysis was performed on the 469 participants who had quantifiable viral loads at baseline. Male and female participants had comparable nasal SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels at study entry and throughout follow-up. However, sex-specific differences in viral shedding emerged when stratified by duration of symptoms. In the first three days from symptom onset, female participants exhibited higher nasal SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels than males, but lower viral RNA levels thereafter. The higher viral RNA levels in females during the earliest phase of acute COVID-19 was seen even after adjusting for age, race and region of enrollment. Female participants also tended to have higher symptom scores across days since symptom onset but no significant correlation was observed between nasal SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels and symptom score regardless of sex. These findings highlight the impact of sex on both viral shedding and symptom dynamics and underscore the importance of considering time since symptom onset when evaluating respiratory virus antiviral therapies in clinical trials.
{"title":"Viral shedding and symptom severity across populations during acute COVID in the ACTIV-2 study.","authors":"Evelyn Kung, Rinki Deo, Manish C Choudhary, Kara W Chew, Teresa H Evering, Rachel Bender Ignacio, Prasanna Jagannathan, James P Flynn, James Regan, Carlee Moser, Mark J Giganti, Michael D Hughes, Justin Ritz, Arzhang Cyrus Javan, Alexander L Greninger, Upinder Singh, William Fischer, Eric S Daar, David A Wohl, Joseph J Eron, Judith S Currier, Robert W Coombs, Davey M Smith, Jonathan Z Li","doi":"10.64898/2026.01.31.26345293","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.01.31.26345293","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>To evaluate the impact of sex on acute SARS-CoV-2 infection, 668 participants from the ACTIV-2/A5401 study were followed over a 28-day period. A primary analysis was performed on the 469 participants who had quantifiable viral loads at baseline. Male and female participants had comparable nasal SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels at study entry and throughout follow-up. However, sex-specific differences in viral shedding emerged when stratified by duration of symptoms. In the first three days from symptom onset, female participants exhibited higher nasal SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels than males, but lower viral RNA levels thereafter. The higher viral RNA levels in females during the earliest phase of acute COVID-19 was seen even after adjusting for age, race and region of enrollment. Female participants also tended to have higher symptom scores across days since symptom onset but no significant correlation was observed between nasal SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels and symptom score regardless of sex. These findings highlight the impact of sex on both viral shedding and symptom dynamics and underscore the importance of considering time since symptom onset when evaluating respiratory virus antiviral therapies in clinical trials.</p>","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12889752/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146168404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-03DOI: 10.64898/2026.01.31.26345264
Michael Levitt, Ben Marten, Gal Oren, John P A Ioannidis
In death certificates Entity Axis reflects reported death causes in their original order, and Record Axis reflects standardized re-classifications processed with expert rules. Additionally, while conventional mortality statistics consider a single underlying cause ignoring multiple contributing conditions, weighting schemes may consider all listed causes. We evaluated the impact of re-classification and weighting schemes across all 56,986,831 US death certificates from 2003-2023. ICD-10 codes were mapped to 14 broad disease categories. We recorded the frequency of changes and concordance in reported underlying cause of death between Entity and Record Axes. We considered weighting schemes for attributing mortality burden with Record Axis data: W1 (50% weight to underlying cause, 50% distributed equally among contributing causes), W2 (equal weighting across all causes) and W2A (equal weighting across all causes at ICD-10 level). Entity and Record Axes agreed on underlying cause category in 84.8% and on specific ICD-10 code in 68.9%. Reclassification from Entity Axis to Record Axis markedly increased COVID-19 (+92%) and Transport (+44%) and markedly decreased deaths from Other External Causes (-54%). Weighting schemes substantially altered death burden attribution: e.g. they reduced COVID-19 (-44-63%) and Falls (-46-66%), and changes tended to be more prominent with W2 and W2A than with W1 weighting. Weighting brought death counts per disease category closer to the Entity Axis. Weighting also restored Respiratory seasonality patterns. Systematic differences between reported and re-classified causes of death and weighting schemes for multiple causes profoundly change some disease burden estimates with major implications for resource allocation and public health priorities.
Significance statement: Standardized re-classification processes using expert rules recast the selected causes of death in many death certificates. Moreover, vital statistics typically isolate a single underlying cause, while for many deaths multiple causes jointly lead to demise. Analysis of ∼57 million deaths in the USA (2003-2023) shows that a large proportion of deaths are re-classified by expert rules to different causes than those filled by original certifiers. Analyses that give weight not only the recorded underlying cause but also the other listed causes lead to markedly different estimates of deaths from several diseases. For example, the footprint of COVID-19 fatalities during the pandemic years decreases by 44-63%. Re-classification and weighting schemes may have profound impact on disease burden estimates and policy decisions.
{"title":"Reclassification and Weighting of Multiple Causes of Death: US Death Certificates 2003-2023.","authors":"Michael Levitt, Ben Marten, Gal Oren, John P A Ioannidis","doi":"10.64898/2026.01.31.26345264","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.01.31.26345264","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In death certificates Entity Axis reflects reported death causes in their original order, and Record Axis reflects standardized re-classifications processed with expert rules. Additionally, while conventional mortality statistics consider a single underlying cause ignoring multiple contributing conditions, weighting schemes may consider all listed causes. We evaluated the impact of re-classification and weighting schemes across all 56,986,831 US death certificates from 2003-2023. ICD-10 codes were mapped to 14 broad disease categories. We recorded the frequency of changes and concordance in reported underlying cause of death between Entity and Record Axes. We considered weighting schemes for attributing mortality burden with Record Axis data: W1 (50% weight to underlying cause, 50% distributed equally among contributing causes), W2 (equal weighting across all causes) and W2A (equal weighting across all causes at ICD-10 level). Entity and Record Axes agreed on underlying cause category in 84.8% and on specific ICD-10 code in 68.9%. Reclassification from Entity Axis to Record Axis markedly increased COVID-19 (+92%) and Transport (+44%) and markedly decreased deaths from Other External Causes (-54%). Weighting schemes substantially altered death burden attribution: e.g. they reduced COVID-19 (-44-63%) and Falls (-46-66%), and changes tended to be more prominent with W2 and W2A than with W1 weighting. Weighting brought death counts per disease category closer to the Entity Axis. Weighting also restored Respiratory seasonality patterns. Systematic differences between reported and re-classified causes of death and weighting schemes for multiple causes profoundly change some disease burden estimates with major implications for resource allocation and public health priorities.</p><p><strong>Significance statement: </strong>Standardized re-classification processes using expert rules recast the selected causes of death in many death certificates. Moreover, vital statistics typically isolate a single underlying cause, while for many deaths multiple causes jointly lead to demise. Analysis of ∼57 million deaths in the USA (2003-2023) shows that a large proportion of deaths are re-classified by expert rules to different causes than those filled by original certifiers. Analyses that give weight not only the recorded underlying cause but also the other listed causes lead to markedly different estimates of deaths from several diseases. For example, the footprint of COVID-19 fatalities during the pandemic years decreases by 44-63%. Re-classification and weighting schemes may have profound impact on disease burden estimates and policy decisions.</p>","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12889793/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146168662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-03DOI: 10.64898/2026.02.02.26345350
A Bonetti, V L Le, Z I Carrero, F Wolf, M Gustav, S W Lam, L Vanhersecke, P Sobczuk, F Le Loarer, M Lenarcik, P Rutkowski, J M van Sabben, N Steeghs, H van Boven, I Machado, S Bagué, S Navarro, E Medina-Ceballos, C Agra, F Giner, G Tapia, A Hernández-Gallego, G Civantos Jubera, M Cuatrecasas, S Lopez-Prades, R E Perret, I Soubeyran, E Khalifa, L Blouin, E Wardelmann, A Meurgey, P Collini, A Voloshin, Y Yatabe, H Hirano, A Gronchi, T Nishida, O Bouché, J F Emile, C Ngo, P Hohenberger, C Cotarelo, J Jakob, J V M G Bovee, H Gelderblom, A Szumera-Cieckiewicz, M Jean-Denis, J Bollard, N Lassau, A Lecesne, J Y Blay, A Italiano, A Crombé, J M Coindre, J N Kather
Background: Gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) is the most common gastrointestinal mesenchymal tumor, driven by tyrosine-protein kinase KIT and platelet-derived growth factor receptor A (PDGFRA) mutations. Specific variants, such as KIT exon 11 deletions, carry prognostic and therapeutic implications, whereas wild-type (WT) variants derive limited benefit from tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs). Given the limited reproducibility of established clinicopathological risk models, deep learning (DL) applied to whole-slide images (WSIs) emerged as a promising tool for molecular classification and prognostic assessment.
Patients and methods: We analyzed 8398 GIST cases from 21 centers in 7 countries, including 7238 with molecular data and 2638 with clinical follow-up. DL models were trained on WSIs to predict mutations, treatment sensitivity, and recurrence-free survival (RFS).
Results: DL predicted mutational status in GIST from WSIs, with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.87 for KIT , 0.96 for PDGFRA . High performance was observed for subtypes, including KIT exon 11 delinss 557-558 (0.67) and PDGFRA exon 18 D842V (0.93). For therapeutic categories, performance reached 0.84 for avapritinib sensitivity, 0.81 for imatinib sensitivity. DL models predicted RFS, with hazard-ratios (HR) of 8.44 (95%CI 6.14-11.61) in the overall cohort and 4.74 (95%CI 3.34-6.74) in patients receiving adjuvant therapy. Prognostic performance was comparable to pathology-based scores, with highest discrimination in the overall cohort and in patients without adjuvant therapy (9.44, 95%CI (5.87-15.20)).
Conclusion: DL applied to WSIs enables prediction of molecular alterations, treatment sensitivity, and RFS in GIST, performing comparably to established risk scores across international cohorts, providing a baseline for future multimodal predictors.
Highlights: Deep learning on histology predicts KIT and PDGFRA mutations in a large international cohort of GISTs from multiple centersWhole-slide image models stratify recurrence-free survival comparable to pathology-based risk scoresPrognostic value of deep learning is preserved in adjuvant therapy subgroups, supporting treatment duration decisions.
{"title":"Prediction of Mutations and Outcome in Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors with Deep Learning: A Multicenter, Multinational Study.","authors":"A Bonetti, V L Le, Z I Carrero, F Wolf, M Gustav, S W Lam, L Vanhersecke, P Sobczuk, F Le Loarer, M Lenarcik, P Rutkowski, J M van Sabben, N Steeghs, H van Boven, I Machado, S Bagué, S Navarro, E Medina-Ceballos, C Agra, F Giner, G Tapia, A Hernández-Gallego, G Civantos Jubera, M Cuatrecasas, S Lopez-Prades, R E Perret, I Soubeyran, E Khalifa, L Blouin, E Wardelmann, A Meurgey, P Collini, A Voloshin, Y Yatabe, H Hirano, A Gronchi, T Nishida, O Bouché, J F Emile, C Ngo, P Hohenberger, C Cotarelo, J Jakob, J V M G Bovee, H Gelderblom, A Szumera-Cieckiewicz, M Jean-Denis, J Bollard, N Lassau, A Lecesne, J Y Blay, A Italiano, A Crombé, J M Coindre, J N Kather","doi":"10.64898/2026.02.02.26345350","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.02.02.26345350","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) is the most common gastrointestinal mesenchymal tumor, driven by tyrosine-protein kinase KIT and platelet-derived growth factor receptor A (PDGFRA) mutations. Specific variants, such as KIT exon 11 deletions, carry prognostic and therapeutic implications, whereas wild-type (WT) variants derive limited benefit from tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs). Given the limited reproducibility of established clinicopathological risk models, deep learning (DL) applied to whole-slide images (WSIs) emerged as a promising tool for molecular classification and prognostic assessment.</p><p><strong>Patients and methods: </strong>We analyzed 8398 GIST cases from 21 centers in 7 countries, including 7238 with molecular data and 2638 with clinical follow-up. DL models were trained on WSIs to predict mutations, treatment sensitivity, and recurrence-free survival (RFS).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>DL predicted mutational status in GIST from WSIs, with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.87 for <i>KIT</i> , 0.96 for <i>PDGFRA</i> . High performance was observed for subtypes, including KIT exon 11 delinss 557-558 (0.67) and <i>PDGFRA</i> exon 18 D842V (0.93). For therapeutic categories, performance reached 0.84 for avapritinib sensitivity, 0.81 for imatinib sensitivity. DL models predicted RFS, with hazard-ratios (HR) of 8.44 (95%CI 6.14-11.61) in the overall cohort and 4.74 (95%CI 3.34-6.74) in patients receiving adjuvant therapy. Prognostic performance was comparable to pathology-based scores, with highest discrimination in the overall cohort and in patients without adjuvant therapy (9.44, 95%CI (5.87-15.20)).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>DL applied to WSIs enables prediction of molecular alterations, treatment sensitivity, and RFS in GIST, performing comparably to established risk scores across international cohorts, providing a baseline for future multimodal predictors.</p><p><strong>Highlights: </strong><b>Deep learning on histology predicts KIT and PDGFRA mutations in a large international cohort of GISTs from multiple centers</b> <b>Whole-slide image models stratify recurrence-free survival comparable to pathology-based risk scores</b> <b>Prognostic value of deep learning is preserved in adjuvant therapy subgroups, supporting treatment duration decisions</b>.</p>","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12889797/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146168685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-03DOI: 10.64898/2025.12.31.25343299
Jesse E Ross, Alin S Tomoiaga, Nicholas Owor, Xuan Lu, Joseph Shinyale, Tonny Kiyingi, Ignatius Asasira, Peter James Eliku, John Bosco Nsubuga, Christopher Nsereko, Irene Nayiga, Stephen Kyebambe, Thomas Ochar, Moses Kiwubeyi, Rittah Nankwanga, Kai Nie, Hui Xie, Sam Miake-Lye, Bryan Villagomez, Jingjing Qi, Steven J Reynolds, Martina Cathy Nakibuuka, John Kayiwa, Mercy Haumba, Joweria Nakaseegu, Xiaoyu Che, Risa Hoffman, John A Belperio, Julius J Lutwama, Seunghee Kim-Schulze, Max R O'Donnell, Barnabas Bakamutumaho, Matthew J Cummings
<p><strong>Objective: </strong>Severe tuberculosis (TB) is a major cause of critical illness and death in people living with HIV (PLWH) worldwide. Despite this, the immunopathology of severe HIV-associated TB (HIV/TB) is poorly understood. We aimed to identify an immunopathologic signature of severe HIV/TB in sub-Saharan Africa.</p><p><strong>Design and setting: </strong>We analyzed proteomic data from two prospective observational cohorts of adults hospitalized with severe undifferentiated infection in Uganda: an urban discovery cohort (Entebbe, N=241) and a rural validation cohort (Tororo, N=253).</p><p><strong>Patients: </strong>Adults (age ≥18 years) hospitalized with severe febrile illness.</p><p><strong>Interventions: </strong>None.</p><p><strong>Measurements and main results: </strong>Across both cohorts, severe HIV-associated TB was common, affecting 18% of participants in the discovery cohort and 21% in the validation cohort. Overall mortality was significant (30-day mortality of 22% in the discovery cohort & 60-day mortality of 26% in the validation cohort). Participants were stratified into three HIV/TB phenotypes: HIV-negative without TB, PLWH without TB, and PLWH with microbiologically diagnosed TB. We applied ordinal random forest models in the discovery cohort to identify proteins strongly predictive of progressive HIV/TB phenotype. In both cohorts, PLWH with microbiologically diagnosed TB were at highest risk of critical illness and death (30-day mortality of 42% in the discovery cohort & 60-day mortality of 52% in the validation cohort). An eight-protein signature reliably distinguished this phenotype, reflecting mediators of macrophage/dendritic cell activation (LAMP3), NK- and T-cell stimulation and cytotoxicity (CD70, CRTAM), B-cell activation (IGLC2), protease-mediated tissue injury (PRSS2), dysregulated coagulation (SERPINA5), extracellular matrix remodeling (EFEMP1), and GH/IGF axis dysregulation (IGFBP3).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>We identified an immunologic signature of severe HIV-associated TB defined by mediators of macrophage/dendritic cell and cytotoxic lymphocyte activation, extracellular matrix remodeling, and dysregulated coagulation. These findings offer new insight into HIV/TB pathobiology and highlight potential targets for host-directed therapies in this high-risk population.</p><p><strong>Key points: </strong><b>Question:</b> What host-response patterns characterize severe HIV-associated tuberculosis among adults hospitalized with severe febrile illness in sub-Saharan Africa?<b>Findings:</b> In two prospective cohorts of adults hospitalized with severe febrile illness in Uganda, severe HIV-associated tuberculosis accounted for 18-21% of cases and was associated with higher rates of physiological instability and mortality. An eight-protein host-response signature reproducibly distinguished this high-risk phenotype, reflecting immune activation, tissue injury, extracellular matrix remodeling, and dysr
{"title":"Proteomic Immune Signatures of Severe HIV-Associated Tuberculosis in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Prospective, Multicenter Analysis from Uganda.","authors":"Jesse E Ross, Alin S Tomoiaga, Nicholas Owor, Xuan Lu, Joseph Shinyale, Tonny Kiyingi, Ignatius Asasira, Peter James Eliku, John Bosco Nsubuga, Christopher Nsereko, Irene Nayiga, Stephen Kyebambe, Thomas Ochar, Moses Kiwubeyi, Rittah Nankwanga, Kai Nie, Hui Xie, Sam Miake-Lye, Bryan Villagomez, Jingjing Qi, Steven J Reynolds, Martina Cathy Nakibuuka, John Kayiwa, Mercy Haumba, Joweria Nakaseegu, Xiaoyu Che, Risa Hoffman, John A Belperio, Julius J Lutwama, Seunghee Kim-Schulze, Max R O'Donnell, Barnabas Bakamutumaho, Matthew J Cummings","doi":"10.64898/2025.12.31.25343299","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.64898/2025.12.31.25343299","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>Severe tuberculosis (TB) is a major cause of critical illness and death in people living with HIV (PLWH) worldwide. Despite this, the immunopathology of severe HIV-associated TB (HIV/TB) is poorly understood. We aimed to identify an immunopathologic signature of severe HIV/TB in sub-Saharan Africa.</p><p><strong>Design and setting: </strong>We analyzed proteomic data from two prospective observational cohorts of adults hospitalized with severe undifferentiated infection in Uganda: an urban discovery cohort (Entebbe, N=241) and a rural validation cohort (Tororo, N=253).</p><p><strong>Patients: </strong>Adults (age ≥18 years) hospitalized with severe febrile illness.</p><p><strong>Interventions: </strong>None.</p><p><strong>Measurements and main results: </strong>Across both cohorts, severe HIV-associated TB was common, affecting 18% of participants in the discovery cohort and 21% in the validation cohort. Overall mortality was significant (30-day mortality of 22% in the discovery cohort & 60-day mortality of 26% in the validation cohort). Participants were stratified into three HIV/TB phenotypes: HIV-negative without TB, PLWH without TB, and PLWH with microbiologically diagnosed TB. We applied ordinal random forest models in the discovery cohort to identify proteins strongly predictive of progressive HIV/TB phenotype. In both cohorts, PLWH with microbiologically diagnosed TB were at highest risk of critical illness and death (30-day mortality of 42% in the discovery cohort & 60-day mortality of 52% in the validation cohort). An eight-protein signature reliably distinguished this phenotype, reflecting mediators of macrophage/dendritic cell activation (LAMP3), NK- and T-cell stimulation and cytotoxicity (CD70, CRTAM), B-cell activation (IGLC2), protease-mediated tissue injury (PRSS2), dysregulated coagulation (SERPINA5), extracellular matrix remodeling (EFEMP1), and GH/IGF axis dysregulation (IGFBP3).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>We identified an immunologic signature of severe HIV-associated TB defined by mediators of macrophage/dendritic cell and cytotoxic lymphocyte activation, extracellular matrix remodeling, and dysregulated coagulation. These findings offer new insight into HIV/TB pathobiology and highlight potential targets for host-directed therapies in this high-risk population.</p><p><strong>Key points: </strong><b>Question:</b> What host-response patterns characterize severe HIV-associated tuberculosis among adults hospitalized with severe febrile illness in sub-Saharan Africa?<b>Findings:</b> In two prospective cohorts of adults hospitalized with severe febrile illness in Uganda, severe HIV-associated tuberculosis accounted for 18-21% of cases and was associated with higher rates of physiological instability and mortality. An eight-protein host-response signature reproducibly distinguished this high-risk phenotype, reflecting immune activation, tissue injury, extracellular matrix remodeling, and dysr","PeriodicalId":94281,"journal":{"name":"medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12838305/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146159940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}