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Bridging new observational capabilities and process-level simulation: Insights into aerosol roles in the Earth system 连接新的观测能力和过程级模拟:洞察气溶胶在地球系统中的作用
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-26 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0110.1
Fan Mei, Hailong Wang, Zihua Zhu, Damao Zhang, Qi Zhang, Jerome D. Fast, William I. Gustafson, Xiangyu Li, Beat Schmid, Christopher Niedek, Jason Tomlinson, Connor Flynn
Abstract The spatial distribution of ambient aerosol particles significantly impacts aerosol- radiation-cloud interactions, which contribute to the largest uncertainty in global anthropogenic radiative forcing estimations. However, the atmospheric boundary layer and lower free troposphere have not been adequately sampled in terms of spatiotemporal resolution, hindering a comprehensive characterization of various atmospheric processes and impeding our understanding of the Earth system. To address this research data gap, we have leveraged the development of uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and advanced measurement techniques to obtain mesoscale spatial data on aerosol microphysical and optical properties around the U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory. Our study also benefits from state-of-the-art laboratory facilities that include 3-dimensional molecular imaging techniques enabled by secondary ion mass spectrometry and nanogram-level chemical composition analysis via micronebulization aerosol mass spectrometry. Through our study, we have developed a framework for observation-modeling integration, enabling an examination of how various assumptions about the organic-inorganic components mixing state, inferred from chemical analysis, affect clouds and radiation in observation-constrained model simulations. By integrating observational constraints (derived from offline chemical analysis of the aerosol surface using collected samples) with in-situ UAS observations, we have identified a prominent role of organic-enriched nanometer layers located at the surface of aerosol particles in determining profiles of aerosol optical and hygroscopic properties over the SGP observatory. Furthermore, we have improved the agreement between predicted clouds and ground-based cloud lidar measurements. This UAS-model-laboratory integration exemplifies how these new advanced capabilities can significantly enhance our understanding of aerosol-radiation-cloud interactions.
摘要 环境气溶胶粒子的空间分布对气溶胶-辐射-云的相互作用有重大影响,而这种相互作用是全球人为辐射强迫估算中最大的不确定性因素。然而,大气边界层和自由对流层下部的时空分辨率采样不足,阻碍了对各种大气过程的全面描述,也妨碍了我们对地球系统的了解。为了解决这一研究数据缺口,我们利用无人机系统(UAS)和先进测量技术的发展,获取了美国南部大平原(SGP)大气观测站周围气溶胶微物理和光学特性的中尺度空间数据。我们的研究还得益于最先进的实验室设施,包括利用二次离子质谱法实现的三维分子成像技术和通过微雾化气溶胶质谱法进行的纳米级化学成分分析。通过研究,我们建立了一个观测-建模整合框架,从而能够研究通过化学分析推断出的有机-无机成分混合状态的各种假设如何影响观测约束模型模拟中的云层和辐射。通过将观测约束条件(利用采集的样本对气溶胶表面进行离线化学分析得出)与现场无人机系统观测相结合,我们确定了位于气溶胶颗粒表面的有机富集纳米层在决定 SGP 观测站上空气溶胶光学和吸湿特性剖面中的突出作用。此外,我们还提高了预测云层与地面云层激光雷达测量值之间的一致性。这种无人机系统-模型-实验室的整合体现了这些新的先进能力如何能够显著提高我们对气溶胶-辐射-云相互作用的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Anthropogenic Influence on 2022 June Extreme Rainfall over the Pearl River Basin 人类活动对 2022 年 6 月珠江流域极端降雨的影响
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-26 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0132.1
Xinru Liu, Hang Jie, Yulin Zou, Shengjun Liu, Yamin Hu, Shuyi Liu, Dangfu Yang, Liang Zhao, Jian He
Abstract According to HadGEM3 (CMIP6) models, anthropogenic forcing reduced the probability of 2022-like June mean precipitation by about 32% (15%) and increased 5-day rainfall extreme probability by about 1.8 (1.3) times.
摘要 根据 HadGEM3(CMIP6)模式,人为强迫使 2022 年 6 月平均降水概率降低了约 32%(15%),5 天降水极端概率增加了约 1.8(1.3)倍。
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引用次数: 0
A Machine Learning Approach to Improve the Usability of Severe Thunderstorm Wind Reports 提高强雷暴大风报告可用性的机器学习方法
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-23 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-22-0268.1
Elizabeth Tirone, Subrata Pal, William A Gallus, Somak Dutta, Ranjan Maitra, Jennifer Newman, Eric Weber, Israel Jirak
Abstract Many concerns are known to exist with thunderstorm wind reports in the National Center for Environmental Information Storm Events Database, including the overestimation of wind speed, changes in report frequency due to population density, and differences in reporting due to damage tracers. These concerns are especially pronounced with reports that are not associated with a wind speed measurement, but are estimated, which make up almost 90% of the database. We have used machine learning to predict the probability that a severe wind report was caused by severe intensity wind, or wind ≥ 50 kt. A total of six machine learning models were trained on 11 years of measured thunderstorm wind reports, along with meteorological parameters, population density, and elevation. Objective skill metrics such as the area under the ROC curve (AUC), Brier score, and reliability curves suggest that the best performing model is the stacked generalized linear model, which has an AUC around 0.9 and a Brier score around 0.1. The outputs from these models have many potential uses such as forecast verification and quality control for implementation in forecast tools. Our tool was evaluated favorably at the Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments in 2020, 2021, and 2022.
摘要 众所周知,国家环境信息中心风暴事件数据库中的雷暴风报告存在许多问题,包括高估风速、人口密度导致的报告频率变化以及损害追踪器导致的报告差异。这些问题在没有相关风速测量数据,而是估计风速的报告中尤为突出,而这些报告几乎占了数据库的 90%。我们使用机器学习来预测严重风灾报告由严重强度风或风力≥ 50 kt 引起的概率。我们在 11 年的雷雨大风实测报告以及气象参数、人口密度和海拔高度的基础上,共训练了六个机器学习模型。ROC 曲线下面积 (AUC)、Brier 分数和可靠性曲线等客观技能指标表明,性能最好的模型是堆叠广义线性模型,其 AUC 约为 0.9,Brier 分数约为 0.1。这些模型的输出结果有许多潜在用途,如预测验证和质量控制,以便在预测工具中实施。我们的工具在 2020 年、2021 年和 2022 年的危险天气试验台春季预报实验中获得了良好的评价。
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引用次数: 0
Tailored investments needed to support weather, water, ice and climate services in the Polar Regions 支持极地地区天气、水、冰和气候服务所需的定制投资
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-21 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0159.1
Machiel Lamers, Gita Ljubicic, Rick Thoman, Jorge Carrasco, Jackie Dawson, Victoria J. Heinrich, Jelmer Jeuring, Daniela Liggett, Emma J. Stewart
Abstract The Polar Prediction Project (PPP), one of the flagship programmes of the World Meteorological Organisation’s (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), has come to an end after a decade of intensive and coordinated international observing, modelling, verification, user engagement, and education activities. While PPP facilitated many advancements in modelling and forecasting, critical investment is now required to turn prediction science into salient environmental services for the Polar Regions. In this commentary, the members of the Societal and Economic Research and Applications task team of PPP, a group of social scientists and service delivery specialists, identify a number of insights and lessons that are critical for the implementation of the follow up programme Polar Coupled Analysis and Prediction for Services (PCAPS). We argue that in order to raise the societal value of polar environmental services we need: to better understand the diversity of highly specific user contexts; to tailor the actionability of weather, water, ice and climate (WWIC) service development in the Polar Regions through inclusive transdisciplinary approaches to co-production; to assess the societal impact of improved environmental services in the Polar Regions; and to invest and provide dedicated funding for involving the social sciences in research and tailoring processes across all the Polar Regions.
摘要 极地预报项目(PPP)是世界气象组织(WMO)世界天气研究计划(WWRP)的旗舰项目之一,经过十年紧张而协调的国际观测、建模、验证、用户参与和教育活动,该项目已经结束。虽然PPP促进了建模和预报方面的许多进步,但现在需要进行关键投资,将预测科学转化为极地地区的重要环境服务。在本评论中,由社会科学家和服务提供专家组成的极地伙伴关系社会与经济研究和应用工作组的成员们提出了一些见解和教训,这些见解和教训对于实施极地耦合分析和预测服务后续计划(PCAPS)至关重要。我们认为,为了提高极地环境服务的社会价值,我们需要:更好地了解高度具体的用户背景的多样性;通过包容性的跨学科共同生产方式,调整极地地区天气、水、冰和气候(WWIC)服务开发的可操作性;评估极地地区环境服务改善的社会影响;投资并提供专项资金,让社会科学参与所有极地地区的研究和调整过程。
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引用次数: 0
COVID Impacts Cause Critical Gaps in the Indian Ocean Observing System COVID 影响导致印度洋观测系统出现严重缺口
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-22-0270.1
Janet Sprintall, Motoki Nagura, Juliet Hermes, M. K. Roxy, Michael J. McPhaden, E. Pattabhi Rama Rao, Srinivasa Kumar Tummala, Sidney Thurston, Jing Li, Mathieu Belbeoch, Victor Turpin
Abstract Observing and understanding the state of the Indian Ocean and its influence on climate and maritime resources is of critical importance to the populous nations that rim its border. Acute gaps have occurred in the Indian Ocean observing system, which underpins monitoring and forecasting of regional climate, since the start of the COVID pandemic. The pandemic disrupted the deployment and maintenance cruises for the observational array and also resulted in supply chain issues for procurement and refurbishment of equipment. In particular, the observational platforms that provide key measurements of upper ocean heat variability have experienced serious multi-year declines. There is now record-low data reporting and the platforms that are successfully reporting are old and quickly surpassing their expected period of reliable operation. The overall impact on the observing system will take a few years to fully comprehend. In the meantime, there is a critical need to document the gaps that have appeared over the past few years and how this will impact our ability to improve understanding and model representations of the real world that support regional weather and climate forecasts. The article outlines the expected slow road to recovery for the Indian Ocean observing system, documents case studies of successful international collaborative efforts that will revive the observing system and provides guidelines for resilience from unexpected external factors in the future.
摘要 观测和了解印度洋的状况及其对气候和海洋资源的影响,对印度洋沿岸的人口众多的国家至关重要。自 COVID 大流行开始以来,印度洋观测系统出现了严重的缺口,而该系统是监测和预测区域气候的基础。大流行病扰乱了观测阵列的部署和维护巡航,也造成了设备采购和翻新的供应链问题。特别是对上层海洋热量变化进行关键测量的观测平台出现了严重的多年下降。目前,数据报告数量创历史新低,而且成功报告的平台已经老化,很快就会超过其预期的可靠运行期。对观测系统的总体影响需要几年时间才能完全了解。在此期间,我们亟需记录过去几年中出现的差距,以及这将如何影响我们提高对现实世界的理解和模型描述能力,从而支持区域天气和气候预报。这篇文章概述了印度洋观测系统预期的缓慢恢复之路,记录了成功的国际合作努力案例研究,这些努力将使观测系统恢复活力,并为今后抵御意外外部因素的影响提供指导。
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引用次数: 0
Can we do better at teaching mathematics to undergraduate atmospheric science students? 我们能否更好地向大气科学本科生教授数学?
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-13 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-22-0245.1
Elizabeth M. Page, Samuel S. P. Shen, Richard C. J. Somerville
"Can we do better at teaching mathematics to undergraduate atmospheric science students?" published on 13 Feb 2024 by American Meteorological Society.
"美国气象学会于 2024 年 2 月 13 日发表了 "我们能否更好地向大气科学本科生教授数学?
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引用次数: 0
The Signal-to-Noise Paradox in Climate Forecasts: Revisiting our Understanding and Identifying Future Priorities 气候预测中的信噪比悖论:重新审视我们的理解并确定未来的优先事项
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-12 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-24-0019.1
Antje Weisheimer, Laura H. Baker, Jochen Bröcker, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Steven C. Hardiman, Dan L.R. Hodson, Tim N. Palmer, Jon I. Robson, Adam A. Scaife, James A. Screen, Theodore G. Shepherd, Doug M. Smith, Rowan T. Sutton
"The Signal-to-Noise Paradox in Climate Forecasts: Revisiting our Understanding and Identifying Future Priorities" published on 12 Feb 2024 by American Meteorological Society.
"气候预测中的信噪比悖论:美国气象学会于 2024 年 2 月 12 日出版的《气候预测中的信噪比悖论:重新审视我们的理解并确定未来的优先事项》。
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引用次数: 0
Record High 2022 September-Mean Temperature in Western North America 北美西部 2022 年 9 月平均气温创历史新高
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0148.1
Jinbo Xie, Qi Tang, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Wuyin Lin
Abstract Human-induced warming is estimated to have increased occurrence probability (magnitude) of the record-breaking September 2022 heat event in western North America by 6–67 times (0.6–1 K) by E3SMv2 and even higher by coupled regional refined model (RRM) simulations.
摘要 据 E3SMv2 估计,人类引起的气候变暖使北美西部 2022 年 9 月破纪录高温事件的发生概率(幅度)增加了 6-67 倍(0.6-1 K),而耦合区域精炼模型(RRM)模拟的发生概率(幅度)甚至更高。
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引用次数: 0
Advances in machine learning techniques can assist across a variety of stages in sea ice applications 机器学习技术的进步可为海冰应用的各个阶段提供帮助
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-23-0332.1
Clare Eayrs, Won Sang Lee, Emilia Jin, Jean-François Lemieux, François Massonnet, Martin Vancoppenolle, Lorenzo Zampieri, Luke G. Bennetts, Ed Blockley, Eui-Seok Chung, Alexander D. Fraser, Yoo-geun Ham, Jungho Im, Baek-min Kim, Beong-Hoon Kim, Jinsuk Kim, Joo-Hong Kim, Seong-Joong Kim, Seung Hee Kim, Anton Korosov, Choon-Ki Lee, Donghyuck Lee, Hyun-Ju Lee, Jeong-Gil Lee, Jiyeon Lee, Jisung Na, In-woo Park, Jikang Park, Xianwei Wang, Shiming Xu, Sukyoung Yun
"Advances in machine learning techniques can assist across a variety of stages in sea ice applications" published on 01 Feb 2024 by American Meteorological Society.
"美国气象学会于 2024 年 2 月 1 日发表了《机器学习技术的进步可为海冰应用的各个阶段提供帮助》一文。
{"title":"Advances in machine learning techniques can assist across a variety of stages in sea ice applications","authors":"Clare Eayrs, Won Sang Lee, Emilia Jin, Jean-François Lemieux, François Massonnet, Martin Vancoppenolle, Lorenzo Zampieri, Luke G. Bennetts, Ed Blockley, Eui-Seok Chung, Alexander D. Fraser, Yoo-geun Ham, Jungho Im, Baek-min Kim, Beong-Hoon Kim, Jinsuk Kim, Joo-Hong Kim, Seong-Joong Kim, Seung Hee Kim, Anton Korosov, Choon-Ki Lee, Donghyuck Lee, Hyun-Ju Lee, Jeong-Gil Lee, Jiyeon Lee, Jisung Na, In-woo Park, Jikang Park, Xianwei Wang, Shiming Xu, Sukyoung Yun","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0332.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0332.1","url":null,"abstract":"\"Advances in machine learning techniques can assist across a variety of stages in sea ice applications\" published on 01 Feb 2024 by American Meteorological Society.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139664629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Envisioning the Future of Community Physics 展望社区物理的未来
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-31 DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-24-0001.1
Grant Firl, Ligia Bernardet, Lulin Xue, Dustin Swales, Laura Fowler, Courtney Peverly, Ming Xue, Fanglin Yang
"Envisioning the Future of Community Physics" published on 31 Jan 2024 by American Meteorological Society.
"美国气象学会于 2024 年 1 月 31 日出版的《展望社区物理学的未来》。
{"title":"Envisioning the Future of Community Physics","authors":"Grant Firl, Ligia Bernardet, Lulin Xue, Dustin Swales, Laura Fowler, Courtney Peverly, Ming Xue, Fanglin Yang","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-24-0001.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-24-0001.1","url":null,"abstract":"\"Envisioning the Future of Community Physics\" published on 31 Jan 2024 by American Meteorological Society.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139645119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
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