AGU Advances最新文献

Biogeochemical models simulate soil nitrogen (N) turnover and are often used to assess N losses through denitrification. Though models simulate a complete N budget, often only a subset of N pools/fluxes (i.e., N₂O, $��{{\text{NO}}_3}^{-}�$, NH₃, NO_x) are published since the full budget cannot be validated with measured data. Field studies rarely include full N balances, especially N₂ fluxes, which are difficult to quantify. Limiting publication of modeling results based on available field data represents a missed opportunity to improve the understanding of modeled processes. We propose that the modeler community support publication of all simulated N pools and processes in future studies.

While enhanced tree growth over the last decades has been reported in forests across the globe, it remains unclear whether it drives persistent biomass increases of forest stands, particularly in mature forests. Enhanced tree growth and stand-level biomass are often linked with a simultaneous increase in density-driven mortality and a reduction in tree longevity. Identifying empirical evidence regarding the balance between these processes is challenging due to the confounding effects of stand history, management, and environmental changes. Here, we investigate the link between growth and biomass via the negative relationship between average tree size and stand density (tree number per area). We find increasing stand density for a given mean tree size in unmanaged closed-canopy forests in Switzerland over the past six decades and a positive relationship between tree growth and stand density across forest plots—qualitatively consistent with our simulations using a mechanistic, cohort-resolving ecosystem model (BiomeE). Model simulations show that, in the absence of other disturbances, enhanced tree growth persistently increases biomass stocks despite simultaneous decreases in carbon residence time and tree longevity. However, the magnitude of simulated biomass changes for a given growth enhancement critically depends on the shape of the mortality functions. Our analyses reconcile reports of growth-induced reductions of tree longevity with model predictions of persistent biomass increases, and with our finding of trends toward denser forests in response to growth—also in mature stands.

The lower cell of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is sourced by dense Antarctic Bottom Waters (AABWs), which form and sink around Antarctica and subsequently fill the abyssal ocean. For the MOC to “overturn,” these dense waters must upwell via mixing with lighter waters above. Here, we investigate the processes underpinning such mixing, and the resulting water mass transformation, using an observationally forced, high-resolution numerical model of the Drake Passage in the Southern Ocean. In the Drake Passage, the mixing of dense AABW formed in the Weddell Sea with lighter deep waters transported from the Pacific Ocean by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current is catalyzed by energetic flows impinging on rough topography. We find that multiple topographic interaction processes facilitate the mixing of the two water masses, ultimately resulting in the upwelling of waters with neutral density greater than 28.19 kg m⁻³, and the downwelling of the lighter waters above. In particular, we identify the role of sharp density interfaces between AABW and overlying waters and find that the dynamics of the interfaces' interaction with topography can modify many of the processes that generate mixing. Such sharp interfaces between water masses have been observed in several parts of the global ocean, but are unresolved and unrepresented in climate-scale ocean models. We suggest that they are likely to play an important role in abyssal dynamics and mixing, and therefore require further exploration.

Tectonics exerts a strong control over the morphology of Earth's surface that is apparent in active mountain belts. In lowland areas, subtle processes like lithospheric flexure and isostatic rebound can impact Earth surface dynamics, hydrologic connectivity, and topography, suggesting that geomorphic and hydrologic analyses can shed light on underlying lithospheric properties. Here we examine the effect of lithospheric flexure on the geomorphology, hydrology, and river water chemistry of the Rio Bermejo fluvial system in the east Andean foreland basin of northern Argentina. Results show that proximal to the mountain front, foredeep basin subsidence causes sedimentation along a braided channel belt that is superelevated relative to the surrounding flood basin. During floods, water flows from the superelevated channel into the groundwater reservoir, causing a net loss of discharge with distance downstream. Further downstream, forebulge uplift forces channel narrowing, high lateral migration rates, and incision up to 13 m into older river deposits. This incision locally allows groundwater flow into the river, causing a ∼20% increase in river solute load. Groundwater emerges from the forebulge into the backbulge, predominantly as spring-fed channels. Here, channel migration rates decrease, suggesting a switch from net uplift to subsidence that reduces the depth to the groundwater table. This analysis shows that subtle lithospheric flexure can have significant effects on river channel morphology that determine hydrologic flow paths, and ultimately influence geochemical and ecological patterns. We suggest that these effects may elucidate lithospheric properties that are otherwise inferred from bulk geophysical observations.

The presence of grand minima, characterized by significantly reduced solar and stellar activity, brings a challenge to the understanding of solar and stellar dynamo. The Maunder Minimum (1645–1715 AD) is a representative grand solar minimum. The cyclic variation of solar activity, especially the cycle length during this period, is critical to understand the solar dynamo but remains unknown. By analyzing the variations in solar activity-related equatorial auroras recorded in Korean historical books in the vicinity of a low-intensity paleo-West Pacific geomagnetic anomaly, we find clear evidence of an 8-year solar cycle rather than the normal 11-year cycle during the Maunder Minimum. This result provides a key constraint on solar dynamo models and the generation mechanism of grand solar minima.

Establishing a constitutive law for fault friction is a crucial objective of earthquake science. However, the complex frictional behavior of natural and synthetic gouges in laboratory experiments eludes explanations. Here, we present a constitutive framework that elucidates the rate, state, and temperature dependence of fault friction under the relevant sliding velocities and temperatures of the brittle lithosphere during seismic cycles. The competition between healing mechanisms, such as viscoelastic collapse, pressure-solution creep, and crack sealing, explains the low-temperature stability transition from steady-state velocity-strengthening to velocity-weakening as a function of slip-rate and temperature. In addition, capturing the transition from cataclastic flow to semi-brittle creep accounts for the stabilization of fault slip at elevated temperatures. We calibrate the model using extensive laboratory data on synthetic albite and granite gouge, and on natural samples from the Alpine Fault and the Mugi Mélange in the Shimanto accretionary complex in Japan. The constitutive model consistently explains the evolving frictional response of fault gouge from room temperature to 600°C for sliding velocities ranging from nanometers to millimeters per second. The frictional response of faults can be uniquely determined by the in situ lithology and the prevailing hydrothermal conditions.

Studies of the impacts of solar geoengineering have mostly ignored tropospheric chemistry. By decreasing the sunlight reaching Earth's surface, geoengineering may help mitigate anthropogenic climate change, but changing sunlight also alters the rates of chemical reactions throughout the troposphere. Using the GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry model, we show that stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) with sulfate, a frequently studied solar geoengineering method, can perturb tropospheric composition over a span of 10 years, increasing tropospheric oxidative capacity by 9% and reducing methane lifetime. SAI decreases the overall flux of shortwave radiation into the troposphere, but increases flux at certain UV wavelengths due to stratospheric ozone depletion. These radiative changes, in turn, perturb tropospheric photochemistry, driving chemical feedbacks that can substantially influence the seasonal and spatial patterns of radiative forcing beyond what is caused by enhanced stratospheric aerosol concentrations alone. For example, chemical feedbacks decrease the radiative effectiveness of geoengineering in northern high latitude summer by 20%. Atmospheric chemical feedbacks also imply the potential for net global public health benefits associated with stratospheric ozone depletion, as the decreases in mortality resulting from SAI-induced improvements in air quality outweigh the increases in mortality due to increased UV radiation exposure. Such chemical feedbacks also lead to improved plant growth. Our results show the importance of including fuller representations of atmospheric chemistry in studies of solar geoengineering and underscore the risk of surprises from this technology that could carry unexpected consequences for Earth's climate, the biosphere, and human health.

Remote sensing datasets of water vapor isotopic composition are used along with objective measures of convective aggregation to better understand the impact of convective aggregation on the atmospheric hydrologic cycle in the global tropics (30°N to 30°S) for the period 2015–2020. When convection is unaggregated, vertical velocity profiles are top-heavy, mixing ratios increase and water vapor δD decreases as the mean precipitation rate increases, consistent with partial hydrometeor evaporation below anvils into a relatively humid atmospheric column. Aggregated convection is associated with bottom-heavy vertical velocity profiles and a positive correlation between mixing ratio and δD, a result that is consistent with isotopic enrichment from detrainment of shallow convection near the observation level. Intermediate degrees of aggregation do not display significant variation in δD with mixing ratio or precipitation rate. Convective aggregation provides a useful paradigm for understanding the relationships between mixing ratio and isotopic composition across a range of convective settings. The results presented here may have utility for a variety of applications including the interpretation of paleoclimate archives and the evaluation of numerical simulations of convection.

Wetlands are responsible for 20%–31% of global methane (CH₄) emissions and account for a large source of uncertainty in the global CH₄ budget. Data-driven upscaling of CH₄ fluxes from eddy covariance measurements can provide new and independent bottom-up estimates of wetland CH₄ emissions. Here, we develop a six-predictor random forest upscaling model (UpCH4), trained on 119 site-years of eddy covariance CH₄ flux data from 43 freshwater wetland sites in the FLUXNET-CH4 Community Product. Network patterns in site-level annual means and mean seasonal cycles of CH₄ fluxes were reproduced accurately in tundra, boreal, and temperate regions (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency ∼0.52–0.63 and 0.53). UpCH4 estimated annual global wetland CH₄ emissions of 146 ± 43 TgCH₄ y⁻¹ for 2001–2018 which agrees closely with current bottom-up land surface models (102–181 TgCH₄ y⁻¹) and overlaps with top-down atmospheric inversion models (155–200 TgCH₄ y⁻¹). However, UpCH4 diverged from both types of models in the spatial pattern and seasonal dynamics of tropical wetland emissions. We conclude that upscaling of eddy covariance CH₄ fluxes has the potential to produce realistic extra-tropical wetland CH₄ emissions estimates which will improve with more flux data. To reduce uncertainty in upscaled estimates, researchers could prioritize new wetland flux sites along humid-to-arid tropical climate gradients, from major rainforest basins (Congo, Amazon, and SE Asia), into monsoon (Bangladesh and India) and savannah regions (African Sahel) and be paired with improved knowledge of wetland extent seasonal dynamics in these regions. The monthly wetland methane products gridded at 0.25° from UpCH4 are available via ORNL DAAC (https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/2253).

A flaperon belonging to Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 washed ashore on Réunion Island covered with the barnacle Lepas anatifera in July 2015, more than a year after the plane's disappearance. Here, we report the first high-precision δ¹⁸O_calcite versus temperature relationship for L. anatifera reared under laboratory conditions to unlock clues to the flaperon's drift path and origin. Using this experimental relationship and known growth rates for L. anatifera, we also demonstrate a new method for (a) converting δ¹⁸O data for one of the MH370 barnacles into a dated time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) experienced during the last part of the flaperon's drift and (b) identifying best fits between the observed flaperon SST time series and 50,000 SST histories generated from a particle-tracking simulation. Our new method identifies a flaperon drift path far south of a previous isotope-based reconstruction. We conclude with specific recommendations for using our method to continue the search for MH370 and other applications.