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Joint Design and Pricing Problem for Symbiotic Bioethanol Supply Chain Network: Model and Resolution Approach 共生生物乙醇供应链网络的联合设计和定价问题:模型与解决方法
Pub Date : 2024-11-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.cles.2024.100163
Houssem Bouazizi , Maha Benali , Jean-Marc Frayret , Rim Larbi
To fight climate change, the Province of Quebec, Canada, has set targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by reducing fossil fuel consumption and integrating biofuel content into gasoline and diesel fuel. Motivated by a real-world case study, this paper presents a novel distributed decision model for designing a symbiotic supply chain network and supporting pricing decisions. A distributed decision-making problem is formulated as a game theoretic approach considering a Stackelberg–Nash equilibrium. A novel mathematical model is proposed to support the decisions of four actors: corn farms, processing depots, pig farms, and biorefineries. In addition to the configuration of a biofuel-based industrial symbiosis, the model offers the possibility of setting purchase prices and supply levels for biomass (corn stover supplied by farms), as well as determining sales prices and production levels for the main product (the cellulosic sugar used for the bioethanol production) and a coproduct (pig feed sold to pig farmers). A three-step optimization process involving the user is proposed to address the computational challenges posed by large design problem instances. The case study of the Province of Quebec is used to evaluate the performance of the proposed resolution approach.
为应对气候变化,加拿大魁北克省制定了减少温室气体排放的目标,即减少化石燃料消耗,并在汽油和柴油中添加生物燃料。受实际案例研究的启发,本文提出了一种新颖的分布式决策模型,用于设计共生供应链网络和支持定价决策。考虑到 Stackelberg-Nash 平衡,分布式决策问题被表述为一种博弈论方法。提出了一个新颖的数学模型,以支持四个参与者的决策:玉米农场、加工仓库、养猪场和生物精炼厂。除了配置以生物燃料为基础的工业共生体外,该模型还可以设定生物质(农场提供的玉米秸秆)的收购价格和供应水平,以及确定主要产品(用于生产生物乙醇的纤维素糖)和副产品(出售给养猪户的猪饲料)的销售价格和生产水平。为解决大型设计问题实例带来的计算挑战,提出了一个由用户参与的三步优化流程。利用魁北克省的案例研究来评估所提出的解决方法的性能。
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引用次数: 0
Economic and environmental impact assessment of renewable energy integration: A review and future research directions 可再生能源一体化的经济和环境影响评估:综述与未来研究方向
Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.cles.2024.100162
Md Tasbirul Islam , Sikandar Abdul Qadir , Amjad Ali , Muhammad Waseem Khan
This review article critically examines papers on renewable energy integration (REI), with a specific focus on the economic and environmental impact assessments across multiple sectors, including agriculture, transportation, electricity production, buildings, and biofuel production. A total of 111 articles from the Web of Science Core Collection database were reviewed using a systematic literature review methodology and content analysis techniques. The results indicate that evaluation-type studies, particularly those employing optimization and simulation-based methods, such as techno-economic analysis (TEA) (28 papers) and life cycle assessment (LCA) (20 papers), were the most prominent approaches used for economic and environmental analyses. Optimization techniques such as mixed-integer linear programming (6 papers), genetic algorithms (GA) (5 papers), and particle swarm optimization (PSO) (4 papers) were widely applied. The quantitative analysis of impact assessment indicators shows that REI has yielded significant long-term positive results across multiple RE sources, sectors, and regions. A detailed examination of mathematical models (e.g., optimization techniques) and simulation modeling combined with LCA will assist future researchers in optimizing energy systems and enhancing sustainability in sectors such as agriculture and water desalination. The conceptual inclusion of circular economy within the research field needs to be more present among researchers, and most of the studies focused on technical aspects of RE integration and assessing impacts rather than identifying a systemic change across the sectors. Several future research directions have been identified across sectors, offering opportunities to advance the field. Policymakers will find this paper valuable for informed decision-making and the development of robust policy frameworks.
这篇综述文章对有关可再生能源一体化(REI)的论文进行了严格审查,重点关注农业、交通、电力生产、建筑和生物燃料生产等多个领域的经济和环境影响评估。采用系统的文献综述方法和内容分析技术,对科学网核心收藏数据库中的 111 篇文章进行了综述。结果表明,评价型研究,尤其是那些采用优化和模拟方法的研究,如技术经济分析(TEA)(28 篇论文)和生命周期评估(LCA)(20 篇论文),是经济和环境分析中最常用的方法。混合整数线性规划(6 篇论文)、遗传算法(GA)(5 篇论文)和粒子群优化(PSO)(4 篇论文)等优化技术得到了广泛应用。对影响评估指标的定量分析显示,可再生能源倡议在多个可再生能源来源、部门和地区都取得了显著的长期积极成果。对数学模型(如优化技术)和模拟建模与生命周期评估相结合的详细研究,将有助于未来的研究人员优化能源系统,提高农业和海水淡化等行业的可持续性。将循环经济概念纳入研究领域需要更多研究人员的参与,大多数研究侧重于可再生能源整合和影响评估的技术方面,而不是确定各部门的系统性变化。本文确定了几个跨领域的未来研究方向,为推动该领域的发展提供了机会。政策制定者将发现本文对于知情决策和制定强有力的政策框架很有价值。
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引用次数: 0
Simulation of a system to simultaneously recover CO2 and sweet carbon-neutral natural gas from wet natural gas: A delve into process inputs and units performances 模拟从湿天然气中同时回收二氧化碳和甜碳中性天然气的系统:对工艺输入和装置性能的深入研究
Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.cles.2024.100156
Abdulhalim Musa Abubakar , Lukman Buba Umdagas , Moses NyoTonglo Arowo , Marwea Al-Hedrewy , Mahlon Kida Marvin , Noureddine Elboughdiri , Aminullah Zakariyya Abdul , Jenisus O. Dejarlo , Rezkallah Chafika
The growing need for carbon-neutral energy solutions necessitates the development of efficient systems for carbon dioxide (CO2) recovery and the production of sweet carbon-neutral natural gas (CNNG) from wet natural gas. Despite existing approaches, limitations in process optimization, solvent efficiency, and output purity persist. This study aims to address these gaps by simulating a system for simultaneous recovery of CO2 and CNNG using an integrated three-stage process, modeled in Aspen Plus V8.8. The unique aspect of this work lies in employing the ENRTL-RK base model, coupled with sensitivity analyses to optimize input parameters across 13 interconnected process units, including compressors, heat exchangers, and extraction columns. Key innovations include the novel configuration of units, yielding a recovery efficiency of 95.94% for CNNG and a CO2 purity of 93.185% at optimal conditions, surpassing conventional methods. The performance of the monoethanolamine (MEA) solvent was enhanced by careful adjustment of input parameters, improving its absorption efficiency by 12% compared to standard operational settings. Sensitivity analysis revealed critical parameters such as feed pressure and solvent flow rate as primary drivers for maximizing output efficiency. This study also provides a detailed quantitative assessment of power requirements, with a compressor brake horsepower (BHP) of 18,2605 watts at 110 bar discharge pressure. It addresses the existing research gap by introducing a systematic approach to process optimization, significantly improving the purity and recovery of CNNG and CO2 while minimizing energy consumption. The results not only demonstrate the viability of this process but also provide a foundation for further refinement in sustainable gas processing technologies.
由于对碳中性能源解决方案的需求日益增长,因此有必要开发二氧化碳(CO2)回收和从湿天然气中生产甜碳中性天然气(CNNG)的高效系统。尽管已有一些方法,但在工艺优化、溶剂效率和产出纯度方面仍存在局限性。本研究旨在利用 Aspen Plus V8.8 中建模的集成式三阶段工艺模拟同时回收 CO2 和 CNNG 的系统,从而弥补这些不足。这项工作的独特之处在于采用 ENRTL-RK 基础模型,并结合敏感性分析来优化 13 个相互连接的工艺单元(包括压缩机、热交换器和萃取塔)的输入参数。主要创新包括采用新颖的装置配置,在最佳条件下,CNNG 的回收效率达到 95.94%,二氧化碳纯度达到 93.185%,超过了传统方法。通过仔细调整输入参数,提高了单乙醇胺(MEA)溶剂的性能,与标准操作设置相比,其吸收效率提高了 12%。敏感性分析表明,进料压力和溶剂流速等关键参数是最大化产出效率的主要驱动因素。这项研究还对动力需求进行了详细的量化评估,在 110 巴排气压力下,压缩机制动马力 (BHP) 为 182605 瓦。通过引入系统的工艺优化方法,该研究填补了现有的研究空白,显著提高了 CNNG 和 CO2 的纯度和回收率,同时最大限度地降低了能耗。研究结果不仅证明了该工艺的可行性,还为进一步完善可持续气体处理技术奠定了基础。
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引用次数: 0
Optimizing a hybrid wind-solar-biomass system with battery and hydrogen storage using generic algorithm-particle swarm optimization for performance assessment 使用通用算法--粒子群优化法优化带电池和储氢的风能-太阳能-生物质能混合系统的性能评估
Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.cles.2024.100157
Shree Om Bade, Olusegun Stanley Tomomewo
This paper investigates the optimal design of a hybrid renewable energy system, integrating wind turbines, solar photovoltaic systems, biomass, and battery and hydrogen storage to ensure a reliable energy supply at the lowest annual cost for a residential load in Kern County, USA. The hybrid generic algorithm particle swarm optimization (GAPSO) algorithm was adopted to determine the optimal configuration of parameters and cost-effectiveness, considering technical, economic, environmental, and social performance indicators. The generic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) validate the effectiveness of the proposed technique, showcasing its efficiency in system optimization. The findings indicate that GAPSO outperforms GA and PSO due to its rapid convergence, lowest final fitness value, and stable optimization process. The hybrid GAPSO's performance, combined with the different capacities of wind turbines (4,561 kW), solar PV (8,480 kW), biomass (2,261 kW), battery banks (8,000 kWh), and fuel cells (2,392 kW), resulted in an annual cost of $6,239,193; energy cost and net present value of $0.48/kWh and $101,333,937. The system maintained a supply loss of 0.8 %, achieved an availability index of 99.2 %, a renewable energy fraction of 88.87 %, GHGs emission of 953,615 kg, land use of 3,842,875 m2, and water consumption 528,678 L respectively. GAPSO achieved a 2.17 % and 0.01 % improvement in cost-effectiveness and 11.11 % increase in reliability compared to GA and PSO.
本文研究了混合可再生能源系统的优化设计,该系统集成了风力涡轮机、太阳能光伏系统、生物质能以及电池和氢气存储,以确保以最低的年成本为美国克恩县的居民负荷提供可靠的能源供应。考虑到技术、经济、环境和社会性能指标,采用了混合通用算法粒子群优化(GAPSO)算法来确定最佳参数配置和成本效益。通用算法(GA)和粒子群优化(PSO)验证了所提技术的有效性,展示了其在系统优化中的效率。研究结果表明,GAPSO 的收敛速度快、最终适应度值最低、优化过程稳定,因此优于 GA 和 PSO。混合 GAPSO 的性能与风力涡轮机(4,561 千瓦)、太阳能光伏发电(8,480 千瓦)、生物质能(2,261 千瓦)、蓄电池组(8,000 千瓦时)和燃料电池(2,392 千瓦)的不同容量相结合,每年的成本为 6,239,193 美元;能源成本和净现值分别为 0.48 美元/千瓦时和 101,333,937 美元。该系统的供电损失率为 0.8%,可用指数为 99.2%,可再生能源比例为 88.87%,温室气体排放量为 953,615 千克,土地使用面积为 3,842,875 平方米,耗水量为 528,678 升。与 GA 和 PSO 相比,GAPSO 的成本效益分别提高了 2.17 % 和 0.01 %,可靠性提高了 11.11 %。
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引用次数: 0
Design and implementation of a control system for multifunctional applications of a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) in a power system network 电力系统网络中电池储能系统(BESS)多功能应用控制系统的设计与实施
Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.cles.2024.100153
Chukwuemeka Emmanuel Okafor, Komla Agbenyo Folly
This work proposes a design and implementation of a control system for the multifunctional applications of a Battery Energy Storage System in an electric network. Simulation results revealed that through the suggested control approach, a frequency support of 50.24 Hz for the 53-bus system during a load decrease contingency of 350MW was achieved. Without the control system, the frequency was 50 .38Hz. Such a high frequency if not addressed, may result in a loss of synchronization among interconnected synchronous machines which could result in a decrease in voltage stability of the studied network. Besides, a reduction of about 2.05 MW in the active power losses was accomplished and a reactive power support of 3.63Mvar was realised. Thus, through the proposed strategy, Battery energy storage system has been enabled for frequency regulation, power loss minimization and voltage deviation mitigation resulting in an overall enhancement of the power quality of the electric power delivered in the studied networks.
这项研究提出了一种控制系统的设计和实施方法,以实现电池储能系统在电网中的多功能应用。仿真结果表明,通过建议的控制方法,在负载减少 350MW 的紧急情况下,53 总线系统的频率支持达到了 50.24Hz。在没有控制系统的情况下,频率为 50.38Hz。如此高的频率如果不加以控制,可能会导致相互连接的同步电机之间失去同步,从而降低所研究网络的电压稳定性。此外,还减少了约 2.05 兆瓦的有功功率损耗,并实现了 3.63Mvar 的无功功率支持。因此,通过所提出的策略,电池储能系统可用于频率调节、功率损耗最小化和电压偏差缓解,从而全面提高所研究电网的电力输送质量。
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引用次数: 0
Techno economic study of floating solar photovoltaic project in Indonesia using RETscreen 利用 RETscreen 对印度尼西亚浮动太阳能光伏项目进行技术经济研究
Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.cles.2024.100155
Muhammad Rifansyah, Dzikri Firmansyah Hakam
The utilization of solar energy is crucial for the advancement of sustainable power generation on a worldwide scale, driven by environmental concerns and the depletion of fossil fuels. Indonesia's goal is to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 and it is aggressively advocating for solar energy, which includes the implementation of new methods such as floating photovoltaic (PV) systems. This study evaluates the Techno-Economic Feasibility of Indonesia's Cirata 145 MW floating solar PV project by employing RETScreen technology. The objective is to improve the long-term financial stability, decrease greenhouse gas emissions, and suggest viable choices for improvement. Examining three scenarios that involve alterations in carbon emissions, energy pricing, and loan interest rates demonstrates different levels of project feasibility. The introduction of carbon tax emission pricing has a substantial impact on the feasibility of projects. This study provides useful insights into doing techno-economic feasibility assessments using RETScreen for floating photovoltaic (PV) systems. It demonstrates how modifying parameters can effectively mitigate project risks.
在环境问题和化石燃料枯竭的推动下,太阳能的利用对于在全球范围内推进可持续发电至关重要。印度尼西亚的目标是到 2060 年实现碳中和,并积极倡导太阳能,其中包括采用浮动光伏系统等新方法。本研究通过采用 RETScreen 技术,对印度尼西亚 Cirata 145 兆瓦浮动太阳能光伏项目的技术经济可行性进行了评估。目的是提高长期财务稳定性,减少温室气体排放,并提出可行的改进方案。对碳排放、能源定价和贷款利率变化的三种情景进行研究,展示了不同程度的项目可行性。碳税排放定价的引入对项目的可行性产生了重大影响。这项研究为使用 RETScreen 对浮动光伏(PV)系统进行技术经济可行性评估提供了有益的启示。它展示了修改参数如何有效降低项目风险。
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引用次数: 0
Optimizing textile dyeing and finishing for improved energy efficiency and sustainability in fleece knitted fabrics 优化纺织染整,提高羊毛针织物的能效和可持续性
Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.cles.2024.100154
Miraduzzaman Chowdhury , Mohammad Shohag Babu , Shahadat Hossain , Rony Mia , Shekh Md. Mamun Kabir
In the industrial range, optimizing dyeing and finishing energy is important to control environmental pollution. In the Dyeing stage to finishing of textiles gas, electricity, steam, and water are used 260 m3/hour, 591 kWh, 1.2 pounds/hour, and 8.69 tons/hour respectively. If textile professionals do not match the desired shade and quality of fabrics with the use of minimal resources the energy cost will be multiple times higher. This study investigates the change in the shade of fleece knitted fabrics from the dyeing unload to the finish stage and assumes a dyeing recipe adjustment, focusing on the impact of optimized dyeing and finishing processes. Also, it focuses on qualitative changes in properties across various color variations. Identical dyeing recipes for light, medium, and dark shades of red, blue, and navy. Properties such as GSM (grams per square meter), width, color strength, shade (darker/lighter, red/green, blue/yellow), shrinkage, spirality, pilling, bursting strength, and color fastness were analyzed. Dyeing to post-finishing, an increase in color strength (K/S) values was observed, with examples including minimum increases from 2.9 to 3.18 for light red and maximum from 19.3 to 22.9 for dark navy shade. Darker shades (DL*) were observed after stenter 1st pass (among all variants, red: 1.2 % to 8.1 %, blue: 4.5 % to 6.7 %, navy: 1.6 % to 2 %), while lighter shades (DL*) were observed following sueding and napping (among all variants, red: 3.1 % to 19.7 %, blue: 11.8 % to 19.7 %, navy: 14.8 % to 27.6 %). Greenish (Da*) and yellowish (Db*) tones are prominent across all colors in the finishing stages. Besides, other properties shrinkage, spirality, pilling, bursting strength, and color fastness significantly changed. These findings offer valuable guidance for dyeing professionals aiming to achieve the desired adjustment of shades that match the quality standard and produce sustainable fleece fabrics. To compensate for the shade lightening that occurs during the finishing process, it is recommended to keep the fabric shade slightly darker (5.70 % to 23.10 %) at the dyeing stage.
在工业范围内,优化染整能源对控制环境污染非常重要。在染色阶段到纺织品整理阶段,燃气、电、蒸汽和水的使用量分别为 260 立方米/小时、591 千瓦时、1.2 磅/小时和 8.69 吨/小时。如果纺织专业人员不能在使用最少资源的情况下获得理想的织物色调和质量,能源成本将成倍增加。本研究调查了羊毛针织物从染色卸载到后整理阶段的色调变化,并假设了染色配方调整,重点关注优化染色和后整理工艺的影响。此外,它还关注各种颜色变化的特性质变。红色、蓝色和藏青色的浅色、中色和深色的染色配方完全相同。对 GSM(每平方米克重)、幅宽、色强、色调(深/浅、红/绿、蓝/黄)、收缩率、螺旋度、起球、爆破强力和色牢度等特性进行了分析。从染色到后整理,色牢度(K/S)值都有所提高,例如浅红色的色牢度从 2.9 提高到 3.18,深海军蓝的色牢度从 19.3 提高到 22.9。在拉幅机第一道拉幅后,可以观察到较深的色调(DL*)(在所有变体中,红色:1.2 % 至 8.1 %,深蓝色:1.2 % 至 8.1 %):红色:1.2 % 至 8.1 %,蓝色:4.5 % 至 6.7 %:在所有变种中,红色:1.2 % 至 8.1 %,蓝色:4.5 % 至 6.7 %,藏青色:1.6 % 至 2 %),而在播种和打盹后观察到较浅的色调(DL*):在所有变体中,红色:3.1 % 至 19.7 %,蓝色:11.8 % 至 19.7 %:在所有变体中,红色:3.1 % 至 19.7 %,蓝色:11.8 % 至 19.7 %,深蓝色:14.8 % 至 27.6 %)。在后整理阶段,偏绿(Da*)和偏黄(Db*)的色调在所有颜色中都很突出。此外,其他性能收缩率、螺旋度、起毛起球、爆破强力和色牢度也发生了显著变化。这些发现为染色专业人员提供了宝贵的指导,使他们能够实现符合质量标准的理想色调调整,并生产出可持续发展的羊毛织物。为了补偿整理过程中出现的色调变浅,建议在染色阶段保持织物色调稍深(5.70 % 至 23.10 %)。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the substitution within clean energy: Evidence from China's top 14 hydropower provinces 探索清洁能源的替代性:来自中国 14 个水电大省的证据
Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cles.2024.100152
Yubao Wang, Huiyuan Pan, Junjie Zhen, Boyang Xu
This paper quantitatively examines the substitution effects within China's clean energy sector, focusing on the hydropower and new energy generation sectors across the top 14 hydropower-producing provinces, which collectively contribute to over 80 % of the country's total hydropower output. To provide a comprehensive analysis of regions that significantly influence national trends, the study utilizes the Cross-Price Elasticity (CPE) and Morishima Elasticity of Substitution (MES). CPE measures how the quantity demanded of one energy source responds to a change in the price of another, while MES assesses the sensitivity of the ratio between two energy inputs to price changes. A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model is employed to forecast energy substitution dynamics, offering robust predictive accuracy. The average MES between clean energy and thermal power is 0.663, indicating a moderate substitution relationship, with the effect more pronounced in summer. Additionally, the mean MES between hydropower and new energy generation is 2.067, reflecting a strong substitution effect between these two clean energy forms. Furthermore, the SARIMA model shows a mean squared error (MSE) as low as 0.0006 in some cases, demonstrating its robust predictive accuracy in forecasting energy substitution dynamics. These results offer empirical support for policies aimed at reducing reliance on thermal power and promoting clean energy development in key provinces.
本文定量研究了中国清洁能源行业的替代效应,重点关注水电产量最高的 14 个省份的水电和新能源发电行业,这 14 个省份的水电产量合计占全国水电总产量的 80% 以上。为了全面分析对全国趋势有重大影响的地区,研究采用了交叉价格弹性 (CPE) 和森岛替代弹性 (MES)。CPE 衡量一种能源的需求量如何对另一种能源的价格变化做出反应,而 MES 则评估两种能源投入之间的比率对价格变化的敏感性。采用季节自回归综合移动平均(SARIMA)模型来预测能源替代动态,具有很高的预测准确性。清洁能源与火力发电之间的平均 MES 为 0.663,表明两者之间存在适度的替代关系,夏季的替代效应更为明显。此外,水力发电与新能源发电之间的平均 MES 为 2.067,反映出这两种清洁能源形式之间存在较强的替代效应。此外,SARIMA 模型在某些情况下的均方误差(MSE)低至 0.0006,这表明该模型在预测能源替代动态方面具有很强的预测准确性。这些结果为重点省份减少对火电的依赖、促进清洁能源发展的政策提供了经验支持。
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引用次数: 0
Battery remaining useful life estimation based on particle swarm optimization-neural network 基于粒子群优化-神经网络的电池剩余使用寿命估算
Pub Date : 2024-09-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.cles.2024.100151
Zuriani Mustaffa , Mohd Herwan Sulaiman
Determining the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of a battery is essential for several purposes, including proactive maintenance planning, optimizing resource allocation, preventing unforeseen failures, improving safety, extending battery lifespan, and achieving accurate cost savings. Concerning that matter, this study proposed hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization–Neural Network (PSONN) for estimating battery RUL. In the evaluation of the proposed method, the effectiveness is assessed using the metrics of Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The dataset employed for this investigation comprises eight input parameters and one output variable, representing the battery RUL. In conducting an analysis, the performance of the PSONN model is compared with hybrid NN with Cultural Algorithm (CA-NN) and Harmony Search Algorithm (HSA-NN), as well as the standalone Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Upon examination of the findings, it becomes evident that the PSONN model outperforms the alternatives with an MAE of 2.7708 and an RMSE of 4.3468, significantly lower than HSA-NN (MAE: 22.0583, RMSE: 34.5154), CA-NN (MAE: 9.1189, RMSE: 22.4646), and ARIMA (MAE: 494.6275, RMSE: 584.3098). The PSONN also achieves the lowest maximum error of 104.7381 compared to 490.3125 for HSA-NN, 827.0163 for CA-NN, and 1,160.0000 for ARIMA. Additionally, the low two-tail probability values (P(Tt)), all below the significance level of 0.05, indicate that the differences between PSONN and the other methods (HSA-NN, CA-NN, and ARIMA) are statistically significant. These results highlight the superior accuracy and robustness of the PSONN model in predicting battery RUL. This study contributes to the field by presenting the PSONN as a highly effective tool for accurate battery RUL estimation, as evidenced by its superior performance over alternative methods.
确定电池的剩余使用寿命(RUL)对于多个目的而言都至关重要,包括主动维护计划、优化资源分配、预防意外故障、提高安全性、延长电池寿命以及实现精确的成本节约。为此,本研究提出了粒子群优化-神经网络(PSONN)混合方法来估算电池的有效使用时间。在评估所提出方法的有效性时,使用了平均绝对误差(MAE)和均方根误差(RMSE)指标。本次研究采用的数据集包括八个输入参数和一个输出变量,代表电池 RUL。在进行分析时,将 PSONN 模型的性能与带有文化算法(CA-NN)和和谐搜索算法(HSA-NN)的混合 NN 以及独立的自回归综合移动平均法(ARIMA)进行了比较。研究结果表明,PSONN 模型的 MAE 为 2.7708,RMSE 为 4.3468,明显低于 HSA-NN(MAE:22.0583,RMSE:34.5154)、CA-NN(MAE:9.1189,RMSE:22.4646)和 ARIMA(MAE:494.6275,RMSE:584.3098)。PSONN 的最大误差也最小,为 104.7381,而 HSA-NN 为 490.3125,CA-NN 为 827.0163,ARIMA 为 1,160.0000。此外,PSONN 与其他方法(HSA-NN、CA-NN 和 ARIMA)的双尾概率值(P(T ≤ t))均低于 0.05 的显著性水平,这表明 PSONN 与其他方法(HSA-NN、CA-NN 和 ARIMA)之间的差异具有显著的统计学意义。这些结果凸显了 PSONN 模型在预测电池 RUL 方面卓越的准确性和稳健性。与其他方法相比,PSONN 的性能更优越,这表明 PSONN 是准确估算电池 RUL 的高效工具,从而为该领域的研究做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Wind power forecasting with metaheuristic-based feature selection and neural networks 利用基于元搜索的特征选择和神经网络进行风能预测
Pub Date : 2024-09-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.cles.2024.100149
Mohd Herwan Sulaiman , Zuriani Mustaffa , Mohd Mawardi Saari , Mohammad Fadhil Abas
Accurate forecasting of wind power generation is crucial for ensuring a stable and efficient energy supply, reducing the environmental impact of energy production, and promoting a cleaner and more sustainable energy supply. Inaccurate forecasts can lead to a mismatch between wind power generation and energy demand, resulting in wasted energy, increased emissions, and reduced grid stability. Therefore, improving the accuracy of wind power generation forecasting is essential for optimizing energy storage and grid management, reducing the reliance on fossil fuels, decreasing greenhouse gas emissions, and promoting a more sustainable energy future. This study proposes an innovative approach to enhance wind power generation forecasting accuracy by leveraging the strengths of metaheuristic algorithms for feature selection and integrating them with Neural Networks (NN). Specifically, five distinct algorithms - Genetic Algorithm (GA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), Teaching-Learning-Based Optimization (TLBO), and Evolutionary Mating Algorithm (EMA) - are integrated with NN model to identify optimal feature subsets from a comprehensive dataset of 18 diverse features. The results show that the GA consistently outperforms other algorithms in selecting the most influential features, leading to improved precision in wind power predictions. Notably, the GA achieves the best root mean square error (RMSE) of 37.1837 and the best mean absolute error (MAE) of 18.6313, outperforming the other algorithms and demonstrating the importance of feature selection in improving the accuracy of wind power forecasting. This innovative framework advances the field of renewable energy forecasting and provides valuable insights into optimizing feature sets for improved predictions across diverse domains.
准确预测风力发电量对于确保稳定高效的能源供应、减少能源生产对环境的影响以及促进更清洁、更可持续的能源供应至关重要。不准确的预测会导致风力发电与能源需求不匹配,造成能源浪费、排放增加和电网稳定性降低。因此,提高风力发电预测的准确性对于优化能源存储和电网管理、减少对化石燃料的依赖、减少温室气体排放以及促进更可持续的能源未来至关重要。本研究提出了一种创新方法,利用元启发式算法的优势进行特征选择,并将其与神经网络(NN)相结合,从而提高风力发电预测的准确性。具体来说,五种不同的算法--遗传算法(GA)、粒子群优化(PSO)、蚁群优化(ACO)、基于教学学习的优化(TLBO)和进化交配算法(EMA)--与神经网络模型相结合,从包含 18 种不同特征的综合数据集中识别出最佳特征子集。结果表明,在选择最有影响力的特征方面,GA 始终优于其他算法,从而提高了风能预测的精度。值得注意的是,GA 的最佳均方根误差 (RMSE) 为 37.1837,最佳平均绝对误差 (MAE) 为 18.6313,优于其他算法,证明了特征选择在提高风力预测精度方面的重要性。这一创新框架推动了可再生能源预测领域的发展,并为优化特征集以改进不同领域的预测提供了宝贵的见解。
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Cleaner Energy Systems
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