Pub Date : 2017-05-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ecin.2017.05.011
Roberto Gutiérrez Rodríguez
The composition and magnitude of the price increase for gasoline and diesel, initiated on January 1, 2017, the largest single movement in real terms of the Twenty-First Century, applied in a differentiated manner depending on the logistic conditions of the 90 regions in which the country was divided, is analyzed. The movement preluded the liberalization of fuel prices, starting in February 2017. The high share of indirect taxes in the new price levels is highlighted, along with the arguments used by the federal government to fix them, with evident technical and social communication shortcomings. The main hypothesis of the work is that the price adjustments served to pave the way for national and international private oil companies to start importing fuels, as envisaged in the energy reform, while the federal government obtains more tax resources to mitigate the deterioration of public finances. This later was originated by the reduction of crude oil exports prices, the lower production of hydrocarbons and the large service of the public debt, without evidencing the benefits of the increase of two and a half percentage points in relation to the gdp of non-oil tax revenues, due to the 2013 fiscal reform.
{"title":"La simple aritmética de la nueva política de precios de las gasolinas y el diesel","authors":"Roberto Gutiérrez Rodríguez","doi":"10.1016/j.ecin.2017.05.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecin.2017.05.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The composition and magnitude of the price increase for gasoline and diesel, initiated on January 1, 2017, the largest single movement in real terms of the Twenty-First Century, applied in a differentiated manner depending on the logistic conditions of the 90 regions in which the country was divided, is analyzed. The movement preluded the liberalization of fuel prices, starting in February 2017. The high share of indirect taxes in the new price levels is highlighted, along with the arguments used by the federal government to fix them, with evident technical and social communication shortcomings. The main hypothesis of the work is that the price adjustments served to pave the way for national and international private oil companies to start importing fuels, as envisaged in the energy reform, while the federal government obtains more tax resources to mitigate the deterioration of public finances. This later was originated by the reduction of crude oil exports prices, the lower production of hydrocarbons and the large service of the public debt, without evidencing the benefits of the increase of two and a half percentage points in relation to the <span>gdp</span> of non-oil tax revenues, due to the 2013 fiscal reform.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.ecin.2017.05.011","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75076693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-05-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ecin.2017.05.009
Noemi Levy Orlik
{"title":"Política monetaria: qué relación tiene con el crecimiento y la estabilidad","authors":"Noemi Levy Orlik","doi":"10.1016/j.ecin.2017.05.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecin.2017.05.009","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.ecin.2017.05.009","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80302537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-05-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ecin.2017.05.010
Ismael D. Valverde Ambriz
The aim of this paper is to present a brief reflection on the link between the so-called excessive saving thesis and the formation of the financial crisis during 2007 in the United States.
The introduction establishes the relationship between excessive accumulation of liquid capital by nonfinancial corporations and the thesis of overaccumulation of savings. The second part briefly describes what this thesis consists of and what the scope would be in terms of monetary policy and the development of the crisis. The third section states the possible effects of overaccumulation of savings and finally it's concluded about the scope and limitations of this work.
{"title":"La importancia de la sobreacumulación del ahorro en la crisis financiera de 2007: algunos aspectos a considerar para la economía estadounidense","authors":"Ismael D. Valverde Ambriz","doi":"10.1016/j.ecin.2017.05.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecin.2017.05.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The aim of this paper is to present a brief reflection on the link between the so-called excessive saving thesis and the formation of the financial crisis during 2007 in the United States.</p><p>The introduction establishes the relationship between excessive accumulation of liquid capital by nonfinancial corporations and the thesis of overaccumulation of savings. The second part briefly describes what this thesis consists of and what the scope would be in terms of monetary policy and the development of the crisis. The third section states the possible effects of overaccumulation of savings and finally it's concluded about the scope and limitations of this work.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.ecin.2017.05.010","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75095310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT: In this paper, input-output and SAM-based multiplier models are formulated to identify the main emitters of direct, indirect, and induced carbon dioxide (CO2) for the Mexican economy. The models are based on a social accounting matrix for Mexico, with disaggre-gated household income and consumption patterns according to the official poverty line. The results show that the final users of the inputs that embody high levels of CO2 emissions are the next five sectors: (1) construction; (2) electricity, gas, and water supply; (3) inland transport; (4) food, beverages, and tobacco; and (5) coke, refined petroleum, and nuclear fuel. The findings suggest that the implementation of a carbon tax could damage poor families, since these families generate high direct, indirect, and induced CO2 emissions per unit of income, as a consequence of their consumption patterns of fuels and the products that embody high CO2 emissions levels (for example, agriculture, hunting, forestry, and fishing).
{"title":"Identifying the Main Emitters of Carbon Dioxide in Mexico: A Multi-Sectoral Study","authors":"Joana Chapa, Araceli Ortega","doi":"10.31389/eco.69","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31389/eco.69","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT: In this paper, input-output and SAM-based multiplier models are formulated to identify the main emitters of direct, indirect, and induced carbon dioxide (CO2) for the Mexican economy. The models are based on a social accounting matrix for Mexico, with disaggre-gated household income and consumption patterns according to the official poverty line. The results show that the final users of the inputs that embody high levels of CO2 emissions are the next five sectors: (1) construction; (2) electricity, gas, and water supply; (3) inland transport; (4) food, beverages, and tobacco; and (5) coke, refined petroleum, and nuclear fuel. The findings suggest that the implementation of a carbon tax could damage poor families, since these families generate high direct, indirect, and induced CO2 emissions per unit of income, as a consequence of their consumption patterns of fuels and the products that embody high CO2 emissions levels (for example, agriculture, hunting, forestry, and fishing).","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75041307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-04-01DOI: 10.36095/BANXICO/DI.2017.17
L. M. Gómez-Zamudio, Raul Ibarra
This article evaluates the use of financial data sampled at high frequencies to improve short-term forecasts of quarterly GDP for Mexico. The model uses both quarterly and daily sampling frequencies while remaining parsimonious. In particular, the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regression model is employed to deal with the multi-frequency problem. To preserve parsimony, factor analysis and forecast combination techniques are used to summarize the information contained in a data set containing 392 daily financial series. Our findings suggest that the MIDAS model incorporating daily financial data leads to improvements in quarterly forecasts of GDP growth over traditional models that either rely only on quarterly macroeconomic data or average daily frequency data. The evidence suggests that this methodology improves the forecasts for the Mexican GDP notwithstanding its higher volatility relative to that of developed countries. Furthermore, we explore the ability of the MIDAS model to provide forecast updates for GDP growth (nowcasting).
{"title":"Are Daily Financial Data Useful for Forecasting GDP?: Evidence from Mexico","authors":"L. M. Gómez-Zamudio, Raul Ibarra","doi":"10.36095/BANXICO/DI.2017.17","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.36095/BANXICO/DI.2017.17","url":null,"abstract":"This article evaluates the use of financial data sampled at high frequencies to improve short-term forecasts of quarterly GDP for Mexico. The model uses both quarterly and daily sampling frequencies while remaining parsimonious. In particular, the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regression model is employed to deal with the multi-frequency problem. To preserve parsimony, factor analysis and forecast combination techniques are used to summarize the information contained in a data set containing 392 daily financial series. Our findings suggest that the MIDAS model incorporating daily financial data leads to improvements in quarterly forecasts of GDP growth over traditional models that either rely only on quarterly macroeconomic data or average daily frequency data. The evidence suggests that this methodology improves the forecasts for the Mexican GDP notwithstanding its higher volatility relative to that of developed countries. Furthermore, we explore the ability of the MIDAS model to provide forecast updates for GDP growth (nowcasting).","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74202732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Alternative work arrangements have grown rapidly around the world. In Latin America, these alternative work arrangements have long been part of the labor market and have continued to grow. The informal sector grew rapidly in Latin America over the past few decades comprising up to half of the working population in many countries. Some attribute the growth in alternative work arrangements and informality to regulations and taxes, while others argue that it is precisely the lack of enforcement of regulations that allows unprotected employment arrangements to flourish. We examine whether reducing taxes associated with employment stimulates formal sector employment. We exploit the fact that the tax reform introduced in Colombia in 2012 affected only certain types of workers and not others. In particular, workers earning less than ten times the minimum wage and self-employed workers with more than two employees experienced a reduction of payroll taxes of 13.5 percent between 2013 and 2014. We use the Colombian household surveys, social security records and the monthly manufacturing sample to conduct difference-in-differences analyses of the reform. We find evidence of increased formal employment for the affected groups after the reform using all three data sets. We find that the probability of formal employment and the likelihood of transitioning into registered employment increased for the affected groups after the reform. We also find that the level and share of permanent employment relative to temporary employment grew after the reform for those earnings less than ten times the minimum wage. The results are greatest for those in smaller firms and for those earnings close to the minimum wage.
{"title":"Do Payroll Tax Breaks Stimulate Formality?: Evidence from Colombia’s Reform","authors":"Adriana Kugler, M. Kugler, L. Herrera-Prada","doi":"10.3386/w23308","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w23308","url":null,"abstract":"Alternative work arrangements have grown rapidly around the world. In Latin America, these alternative work arrangements have long been part of the labor market and have continued to grow. The informal sector grew rapidly in Latin America over the past few decades comprising up to half of the working population in many countries. Some attribute the growth in alternative work arrangements and informality to regulations and taxes, while others argue that it is precisely the lack of enforcement of regulations that allows unprotected employment arrangements to flourish. We examine whether reducing taxes associated with employment stimulates formal sector employment. We exploit the fact that the tax reform introduced in Colombia in 2012 affected only certain types of workers and not others. In particular, workers earning less than ten times the minimum wage and self-employed workers with more than two employees experienced a reduction of payroll taxes of 13.5 percent between 2013 and 2014. We use the Colombian household surveys, social security records and the monthly manufacturing sample to conduct difference-in-differences analyses of the reform. We find evidence of increased formal employment for the affected groups after the reform using all three data sets. We find that the probability of formal employment and the likelihood of transitioning into registered employment increased for the affected groups after the reform. We also find that the level and share of permanent employment relative to temporary employment grew after the reform for those earnings less than ten times the minimum wage. The results are greatest for those in smaller firms and for those earnings close to the minimum wage.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91261035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT: We analyze how Brazilian financial markets, in particular interest rate futures, react to monetary policy in terms of both deeds (that is, changes in the policy rate) and words (that is, central bank communication). Using daily data from 2005 to 2014, we find that interest futures rates react in the expected direction to both the central bank’s actions and its words: futures rates rise (fall) after both an increase (decrease) in the reference interest rate and a hawkish (dovish) communication by the Central Bank of Brazil. We also find that the Central Bank’s words create noise, since they increase the volatility of futures rates. Our analysis further reveals that the effectiveness of monetary policy communication increased after the 2008 international crisis, as measured by its larger impact on future rates and reduced volatility. At the same time, deeds became less relevant: the effect of changes in the Central Bank’s policy rate on futures rates declined.
{"title":"Do as I Do, and Also as I Say: Monetary Policy Impact on Brazil’s Financial Markets","authors":"A. Garcia-Herrero, E. Girardin, E. D. Santos","doi":"10.31389/eco.66","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31389/eco.66","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT: We analyze how Brazilian financial markets, in particular interest rate futures, react to monetary policy in terms of both deeds (that is, changes in the policy rate) and words (that is, central bank communication). Using daily data from 2005 to 2014, we find that interest futures rates react in the expected direction to both the central bank’s actions and its words: futures rates rise (fall) after both an increase (decrease) in the reference interest rate and a hawkish (dovish) communication by the Central Bank of Brazil. We also find that the Central Bank’s words create noise, since they increase the volatility of futures rates. Our analysis further reveals that the effectiveness of monetary policy communication increased after the 2008 international crisis, as measured by its larger impact on future rates and reduced volatility. At the same time, deeds became less relevant: the effect of changes in the Central Bank’s policy rate on futures rates declined.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85617611","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT: This paper analyzes the experience of information sharing, coordination, and integration of actions of the civil and military police forces in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, in the context of the IGESP program. The IGESP was based on the introduction of information management systems and organizational changes akin to those associated with the CompStat system originally developed in New York City. The evidence points to a causal effect of the IGESP on crime. The most conservative estimates indicate a reduction of 23 percent in violent property crimes due to the introduction of the program. There is also evidence that the IGESP is associated with improved police response, measured by apprehension of weapons and clearance rates. We present one of the few estimates available with a clear identification strategy of the impact of CompStat-like programs. The results suggest that coordination of actions and efficient use of information may constitute first-order factors in the fight against crime.
{"title":"Organization and Information in the Fight against Crime: The Integration of Police Forces in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil","authors":"Rodrigo R. Soares, Igor Viveiros","doi":"10.31389/eco.64","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31389/eco.64","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT: This paper analyzes the experience of information sharing, coordination, and integration of actions of the civil and military police forces in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, in the context of the IGESP program. The IGESP was based on the introduction of information management systems and organizational changes akin to those associated with the CompStat system originally developed in New York City. The evidence points to a causal effect of the IGESP on crime. The most conservative estimates indicate a reduction of 23 percent in violent property crimes due to the introduction of the program. There is also evidence that the IGESP is associated with improved police response, measured by apprehension of weapons and clearance rates. We present one of the few estimates available with a clear identification strategy of the impact of CompStat-like programs. The results suggest that coordination of actions and efficient use of information may constitute first-order factors in the fight against crime.","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89712153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-03-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ecin.2017.05.002
Sergio E. Martínez Rivera
China is called to be the next world economic leader in the 21st century, this has meant that different countries seek to link with that nation to take advantage of the economic boom they have recorded over 30 years and thereby detonate their own growth. The Latin American governments, in their desire to link with China and take advantage of this scenario, developed a strategy that predominantly aims to export raw materials and natural resources to this Asian country and, on the other hand, to allow in their territories the development of port infrastructure and land, energy and mining, among others. The way in which China has sustained the growth of its product is not only based on purely economic measures but also demographic, institutional and under strict state control. The Chinese growth model can not be replicated and its dynamics do not benefit homogenously all regions of the planet. In this sense Latin America and Mexico will have marginal and short-term economic benefits if they insist on linking to China by applying a primary export model instead of aspiring to projects of greater transcendence.
{"title":"China: ¿oportunidad o utopía para el crecimiento económico de México y de América Latina?","authors":"Sergio E. Martínez Rivera","doi":"10.1016/j.ecin.2017.05.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecin.2017.05.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>China is called to be the next world economic leader in the 21st century, this has meant that different countries seek to link with that nation to take advantage of the economic boom they have recorded over 30 years and thereby detonate their own growth. The Latin American governments, in their desire to link with China and take advantage of this scenario, developed a strategy that predominantly aims to export raw materials and natural resources to this Asian country and, on the other hand, to allow in their territories the development of port infrastructure and land, energy and mining, among others. The way in which China has sustained the growth of its product is not only based on purely economic measures but also demographic, institutional and under strict state control. The Chinese growth model can not be replicated and its dynamics do not benefit homogenously all regions of the planet. In this sense Latin America and Mexico will have marginal and short-term economic benefits if they insist on linking to China by applying a primary export model instead of aspiring to projects of greater transcendence.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.ecin.2017.05.002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82072605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-03-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ecin.2017.05.003
Juan Odisio
{"title":"Explorando el modelo neoliberal mexicano: ensayo de una reflexión crítica a propósito de la publicación de México cruce de siglos 1970-2014","authors":"Juan Odisio","doi":"10.1016/j.ecin.2017.05.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecin.2017.05.003","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":100390,"journal":{"name":"Economía Informa","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.ecin.2017.05.003","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74770191","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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